Eovaldi to Red Sox, per Rosenthal

Tyrone Biggums

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I'm genuinely surprised at the embedded regret here. Personally, I would have driven Beeks to the airport myself.
Because Beeks is probably a top 5 prospect with the Sox but is a JAG in about 20 other systems. No regret here with that. However I’m getting the feeling Chavis is probably going to KC for Moose.
 

BigSoxFan

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Or, they gave up a guy who has a decent shot at being an effective cost-controlled reliever for many years in exchange for a guy who nobody wants to see start in a playoff game, when they are already a lock to make the playoffs. Basically, the return is a fairly small increase in chances of getting the division over the WC.
Winning the division and finishing with the best record is a big deal though. It removes the 1 game play-in game randomness and sets up the possibility of a series with SEA or OAK, which I'd prefer over CLE and Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger.

Eovaldi may or may not help but it's worth a shot to find out. I'm not sweating over losing Beeks' next 5 seasons. He's quite replaceable.
 

Byrdbrain

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I’m surprised the Yankees didn’t top that offer.
I’m also surprised anyone here has an issue with this deal. It seems to me Beeks’ ceiling is a back end starter.
 

Rasputin

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Or, they gave up a guy who has a decent shot at being an effective cost-controlled reliever for many years in exchange for a guy who nobody wants to see start in a playoff game, when they are already a lock to make the playoffs. Basically, the return is a fairly small increase in chances of getting the division over the WC.
A small increase in the chances of getting the division is pretty significant.

I'm good with the trade.
 

moondog80

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Winning the division and finishing with the best record is a big deal though. It removes the 1 game play-in game randomness and sets up the possibility of a series with SEA or OAK, which I'd prefer over CLE and Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger.

Eovaldi may or may not help but it's worth a shot to find out. I'm not sweating over losing Beeks' next 5 seasons. He's quite replaceable.
If we put the increase in chances of winning the division as result of this trade at 5%, you have to take the under, right?
 

MillarTime

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Winning the division and finishing with the best record is a big deal though. It removes the 1 game play-in game randomness and sets up the possibility of a series with SEA or OAK, which I'd prefer over CLE and Kluber/Carrasco/Bauer/Clevinger.

Eovaldi may or may not help but it's worth a shot to find out. I'm not sweating over losing Beeks' next 5 seasons. He's quite replaceable.
This exactly.
 

DJnVa

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Basically, the return is a fairly small increase in chances of getting the division over the WC.
This is a feature, not a bug.

Something that gives a better chance at NOT playing a one game WC playoff is a pretty good idea, and a guy that gives you another option for a postseason start OR having a guy that can get righties out from the pen is a good thing.

Beeks has already turned 25, and the overwhelming odds are that he's simply a fungible reliever at the big league level, something a team like the Sox should be able to go out and get if needed.
 

MillarTime

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Red Sox get Nathan Eovaldi while knowing they may well face some great right-handed hitters in the fall -- Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, Judge, Stanton, Cruz, etc. RH hitters have batted .207 against Eovaldi 2 walks, 29 strikeouts in 120 plate appearances.
 

bosockboy

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Lots of flexibility. If Eduardo is back in September and effective as a starter, he’s your 5th to ride out the regular season. If Eduardo can only relieve, it solves the lefty bullpen issue and Eovaldi stays in rotation. Without going over the tax it’s a phenomenal trade. Although I suspect DD isn’t done.
 

Maximus

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Nice move by DD. Britton was the piece I really wanted but we need another righty in the rotation and Evoldi is a good addition to this team and can be a good bullpen arm or maybe a 4th starter in the playoffs if Erod is not healthy.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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This move doesn't just provide some help to the starting rotation but it also should provide some relief for the bullpen.

Having both Pom and Johnson in the starting lineup was going to end up devastating the bullpen if it went on for much longer. Johnson was on 11 days rest his last start, having pitched about 15 innings in three weeks, was pitching effectively, and Cora still took him out after 77 pitches. His max has been 84 this year. Pomeranz has averaged less than 4 2/3 all year.

With Johnson in the starter lineup, the Red Sox had zilch in the bullpen capable of long relief except for a very overworked Vazquez. We have a bunch of one-inning guys who already have a lot of innings on their arms. Going into every 5 days knowing that best case was penciling in 8 to 10 innings of bullpen for just 2 of the 5 starts is no way to run a railroad. Not for the way this team is constructed.

Getting a guy who should consistently be able to work into the 6th or 7th inning most of the time and moving a piece back to the bullpen that can give you more than an inning is huge for this team right now. I still think they need a rubber arm for the bullpen. I watched that Castro guy for the Orioles and wished we had a guy like that, but I think this is sort of as good.
 

gedman211

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My hope is that Pom gets put in the pen. But they'll probably bump Johnson instead just because that's how they do things.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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My hope is that Pom gets put in the pen. But they'll probably bump Johnson instead just because that's how they do things.
My guess is you're right for two reasons.

One is logistical. Johnson is bullpen ready right now, or tomorrow at the latest. Assuming Evoldi takes Johnson's start tomorrow, Johnson can go right away if they need him. Pom wouldn't be bullpen ready for at least a few days. If the Sox don't end up using Johnson out of the bullpen in the next four games -- that is if they get to Sunday and Pom and Johnson are both fresh -- they can make the decision then. But my assumption is that Johnson goes to the bullpen right away and if they need him they have him now.

Second is upside. You have to see what you have in Pom. He has a history of being streaky. What's the delta between a poor Pom and Johnson? It's not really that great. Even when effective, Johnson is a 4-5 inning starter. But the upside of a good Pom is a very effective starter. You have to give it a chance to see if he can be that even if the likelihood is modest. If the best he gets you is 5 2/3 innings of 6.00 ERA baseball over the next month or so, it's not like Johnson would have been that much better.
 

JimD

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I am completely shocked that Eovaldi, even as a two-month rental, only cost Beeks.

IMO, the only way this trade goes bad is if Eovaldi gets hurt right away or completely sucks and Beeks becomes a mid-level starter or late-inning bullpen arm in Tampa. I generally don't believe in 'Win now!' trades but this team is worth it.
 

johnnywayback

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This is a good trade for both teams. There's a good chance Eovaldi is our Game 3 starter in the ALDS, and to get that kind of upgrade without going over the tax is a nice move. Beeks is the kind of prospect a good farm system will have several of -- a high-floor, low-ceiling, depth starter/swingman -- and the fact that ours doesn't makes it harder to give him up, but it's still worth doing.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Not surprised that Beeks is involved here. When I saw Dan Duquette's remarks after the Britton trade, saying that they were looking to pick up a LH SP, my first thought was the our DD had tried to build a package around Beeks. But the O's liked the Yankees package better, with the upside of the former #4 overall pick, Dillion Tate.

I think I would still prefer Britton, but this cost us less (just Beeks, not additional prospects as well), and it gives us additional flexibility with the rotation.

Good deal.
 

moondog80

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Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs says Beeks is better than anyone the Yanks gave for Brittion. Granted, the Yanks gave three guys, but this underscores my point that Beeks is a real loss. I do like this more if E-Rod is done -- hope that isn't the case.

Kiley McDaniel
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a low 45, 40 and 35+ for Britton vs. a 45 for Eovaldi. Not super different.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs says Beeks is better than anyone the Yanks gave for Brittion. Granted, the Yanks gave three guys, but this underscores my point that Beeks is a real loss. I do like this more if E-Rod is done -- hope that isn't the case.
If Dan Duquette agreed with this, I think Britton would be on the Red Sox today.
 

TheoShmeo

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Count me among those who is surprised at the reserved or negative reaction of some.

I will not rehash all of the points and will instead focus on a few.

Yes, the Sox look like locks to make the playoffs but with about 60 games left, I was not looking forward to needing to go with 3 bona fide starters and then trying to stitch it together with Johnson, Pomeranz and others from the system for the last two spots. There's still a lot of season to be played.

Johnson might be serviceable but he is still unproven and has never given them much length. Pomeranz has looked awful all season, including in AAA. Even if both could keep them in games enough such that the offense could bail them out, the effect that the resulting heavy usage might have on the pen would be felt in October, if not before. And we're talking about a pen that itself needs some help, arguably.

Another factor is the importance of avoiding the one game playoff. Eovoldi is not a cure all. But I think he increases the odds of getting more quality starts out of the 4 spot and winning the division. Sacrificing Beeks for that doesn't bother me.

And let's not forget that Eovoldi might prove important as a starter and reliever in the playoffs. Who else is the 4/reliever from the starting staff? E-Rod could come back in about three weeks (at best probably) but has been injury prone throughout his career in Boston, Pom has been hideous and Wright is coming back from a knee injury and has felt soreness in that same knee. One look at Dustin Pedroia's 2018 is enough to dampen anyone's hopes around Wright this season (not that any two players are identical).

Last, I come from the school that when you have the chance to win it all, you take some chances on the way to shoring up the holes on your team. I know I am in the substantial minority, but I can't really fault Lou Gorman for the Andersen-Bagwell deal. Yeah, it should have been just about anyone but Bagwell, but the idea of trading a prospect for a vital bullpen piece (or starter) made sense to me at the time in that case and makes sense to me now.
 

chawson

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I doubt they slot him over Sale, Price, or Porcello.
Since 5/30:

Eovaldi: 57 IP, 23.7 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1.7 HR/9, 46.6 GB%, 16.7 IFFB%, 4.28 FIP, .288 wOBA (.261 OBA vs. RHH)
Porcello: 52 IP, 22.1 K%, 7.4 BB%, 1.4 HR/9, 39.5 GB%, 6.5 IFFB%, 4.41 FIP, .335 wOBA (.352 OBA vs. RHH)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

grimshaw

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Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs says Beeks is better than anyone the Yanks gave for Brittion. Granted, the Yanks gave three guys, but this underscores my point that Beeks is a real loss. I do like this more if E-Rod is done -- hope that isn't the case.
Symborski is less bullish and he's a prospect guy.https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/red-sox-acquire-nathan-eovaldi/

Regardless of whether he is a useful piece down the line, I doubt the Red Sox would have ever gone into spring training with him as their 5th guy. They will have money to spend on a much less risky bet.

The argument to me is whether they could have gotten a better player, not whether it really hurts their big league team over the next few years. I'm not sure there was a better pitcher out there at that cost.
 

bosockboy

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This lets Johnson/Vasquez piggy back Pomeranz in the 5th slot until Eduardo is back. Having two swing guys really adds some flexibility.
 

IdiotKicker

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Beeks feels an awful lot like a LH Michael Bowden - stuff that's good enough to beat AAA hitters, but doesn't translate against major league hitters. Sometimes being close to the majors just means you're close to the majors.
 

chawson

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The argument to me is whether they could have gotten a better player, not whether it really hurts their big league team over the next few years. I'm not sure there was a better pitcher out there at that cost.
Agree with this, and still pretty shocked another team couldn't beat the offer.

Last 30 days (FIP):

Eovaldi - 2.90 (5 starts)
Severino - 4.48 (5)
Gray - 5.26 (4)
German - 5.42 (4)
Sabathia - 5.52 (4)
Tanaka - 3.16 (3)
Cessa - 4.93 (2)
 

DJnVa

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Since 5/30:

Eovaldi: 57 IP, 23.7 K%, 3.6 BB%, 1.7 HR/9, 46.6 GB%, 16.7 IFFB%, 4.28 FIP, .288 wOBA (.261 OBA vs. RHH)
Porcello: 52 IP, 22.1 K%, 7.4 BB%, 1.4 HR/9, 39.5 GB%, 6.5 IFFB%, 4.41 FIP, .335 wOBA (.352 OBA vs. RHH)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Eh, I mean, okay.

Based on those 50-60 IP in June/July I don't feel comfortable saying he's going to slot in over Porcello in October.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Beeks feels an awful lot like a LH Michael Bowden - stuff that's good enough to beat AAA hitters, but doesn't translate against major league hitters. Sometimes being close to the majors just means you're close to the majors.
Bowden feels like a perfect comparison. It's only my eye test, but Beeks gets a lot of AAA swinging on pitches MLB guys don't swing at. His stuff nibbles too far off the edges to garner swings from the elite.
 

InsideTheParker

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DDski likes guys with arm injury history. Whatever, I didn't want to see another Pom start. I wonder how effective he will be in the bullpen. Maybe it would have been better to get Britton???
 

chawson

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Eh, I mean, okay.

Based on those 50-60 IP in June/July I don't feel comfortable saying he's going to slot in over Porcello in October.
For me it depends who we'd face. I might prefer Eovaldi against NYY or HOU, since their RHH have amassed twice as many PAs as Cleveland's this year.
 

bosockboy

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To me feels similar to Kason Gabbard in 2007. Selling high on recent success. Lots of lament I remember on moving him in the Gagne deal, but ultimately washed out fairly quickly. Not saying Beeks will, but it's a completely defensible gamble.
 

DanoooME

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I think what this speaks most to is that if the team has a hole right now, DD will find a way to fill it without crippling the future and stay under the tax.
 

Harry Hooper

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Given all the constraints, it looks like DD made a reasonable deal. If someone is about to go on the DL (Kelly? Pomeranz?) or is already there and having a setback (Wright? Rodriguez?), maybe DD had to close the deal before the news got out.
 

mwonow

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Happy to see Eovaldi coming in, happy not to watch another Beeks appearance in a Sox uni (I said in another thread that it seemes like "Binks" is Ferengi for "hard contact")

Addition by addition AND addition by subtraction - should be worth something between now and end of October
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Beeks feels an awful lot like a LH Michael Bowden - stuff that's good enough to beat AAA hitters, but doesn't translate against major league hitters. Sometimes being close to the majors just means you're close to the majors.
I've been trying to find the right words to describe my impression of Beeks and this absolutely nails it, and he doesn't have anywhere near the pedigree of a guy like Bowden, who was a 1S pick out of high school and in roughly the same conversation with Buchholz/Masterson for a long time.
 

tonyarmasjr

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This is one of those that I think really will only become clear in hindsight and really could go either way. If the Red Sox win a championship, it's easy. If they don't and Beeks becomes a useful number 3/4 for a few years a low cost, then it goes the other way. (Though, even if it does go that way, it doesn't necessarily mean that he would have succeeded the same as a Red Sox as he might as a Ray. They have some weird funky shit they do to develop pitchers.)
Eh...I think we'll have a pretty clear view in a couple months, as opposed to a couple years. There's a pretty high level of confidence that 1) Beeks will have a major league career, but 2) it won't be as a front-line starter. The range of expected value is limited on both ends. Sure, he could blossom into a #2 or never be able to get over the AAA-->MLB hump. But if either of those two relatively unlikely outcomes occur, I don't think it should really change the calculus too much, since no one sees him that way now. He's a back-end of the rotation/middle reliever guy without great stuff a la Brian Johnson. It's about as close to a "we know what we have" situation as we can get with prospects, I think. How successful this trade will be hinges entirely on the Eovaldi side, in my opinion. And, part of that is completely out of his control. It remains to be seen how much he's even needed. If he pitches solidly through the regular season and ends up starting (or even relieving) in the playoffs due to the injuries/underperformance of Pom/EdRo/Wright, well, then it's a big win no matter what Beeks does.

Second is upside. You have to see what you have in Pom. He has a history of being streaky. What's the delta between a poor Pom and Johnson? It's not really that great. Even when effective, Johnson is a 4-5 inning starter. But the upside of a good Pom is a very effective starter. You have to give it a chance to see if he can be that even if the likelihood is modest. If the best he gets you is 5 2/3 innings of 6.00 ERA baseball over the next month or so, it's not like Johnson would have been that much better.
I don't disagree with the larger point you're making (that this helps the bullpen), in general, and I also think trying to find good Pomeranz is the best way to go at this point. But I think you (or maybe Cora) are selling Brian Johnson short. He hasn't been fully stretched out, which is why we haven't seen him going deeper into games. But he hasn't shown he can't. One would assume he is/would be nearly stretched out going forward, and he's been really good in his limited innings: 2.22 ERA as a starter this year, including the 6 IP, 1 ER start he had in April prior to going to the bullpen. We wouldn't expect him to be that good going deeper into games, but there really isn't anything that suggests his best is a 5 2/3 IP, 6.00 ERA guy. I don't see the delta between Johnson and poor Pom or even 2018 Eovaldi as all that great, though both of those guys have a greater upside that would be really nice to capture over the next few months.
 

jose melendez

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His career is the definition of mediocrity or even sub-mediocrity. His ERA+ has only been above 100 once since his rookie year, though he appears to have gotten screwed by a luck a few times according to FIP.

His good peripherals this year are completely out of line with his career numbers. The 6.63 K/BB ratio is galaxies above his previous best of 3.3 (and for most of his career he was under 2) And this is the first time his WHIP is under 1. It had never been 1.3 before.

This is probably a good risk and decent insurance, but I'm curious to see how he holds up as the year goes on post injury. A guy returning from an elbow injury and being that much better is a cause for caution.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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The team is too good but has too many question marks among their pitchers right now for DD not to make a move. Beeks wasn't going to help this year. So DD uses him to get an inexpensive guy who keeps us within the 2d tax limit and can give us innings now and potentially in the playoffs, as the 3/4 starter or a righty killer in the pen, when we're likely to see lots of good RH hitters.

DD had to make this kind of deal.
 

Rovin Romine

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Eovaldi is good for a fair number of innings as a starter. The decision indicates it was thought he'd go longer into games than Beeks. He's now our very serviceable number 4 guy for the next 60 games, with the scrum going in the #5 spot until someone gets healthy/consistent.

I wouldn't be surprised if Eovaldi's biggest contribution was giving the bullpen an extra inning of relief from the 4/5 starting slots.

Beeks is maybe an averageish SP someday.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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All-Time List of Red Sox Players Named "Nate" or "Nathan"
Nathan Eovaldi
Nate Minchey
Nate Spears

All-Time Players Named "Nate" or "Nathan" Who Made An All-Star Team
Nate Colbert
Nate Andrews
Nate McLouth
Joe Nathan
 

grimshaw

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Eovaldi could be a late bloomer too. He's only thrown around 800 career innings and lost tons of development time on the DL. And he's still only 28.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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The team is too good but has too many question marks among their pitchers right now for DD not to make a move. Beeks wasn't going to help this year. So DD uses him to get an inexpensive guy who keeps us within the 2d tax limit and can give us innings now and potentially in the playoffs, as the 3/4 starter or a righty killer in the pen, when we're likely to see lots of good RH hitters.

DD had to make this kind of deal.
Based on the current state of the roster and the few assets available to trade, this seams like a smart move that at the very least fills an immediate need for a SP that could pay huge dividends the rest of the season if Eovaldi pitches well. We know that Sale/Porcello/Price will start in a playoff series but nothing is definite with respect to a 4th starter unless Erod returns healthy. Eovaldi could then slide into the bullpen and give them a good option to throw at righties.