East Regional Discussion and Analysis Thread
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
1 Villanova
16 Lafayette
Thursday--Pittsburgh, PA
8 NC State
9 LSU
Thursday--Pittsburgh, PA
4 Louisville
13 UC Irvine
Friday--Seattle, WA
5 Northern Iowa
12 Wyoming
Friday--Seattle, WA
3 Oklahoma
14 Albany
Friday--Columbus, OH
6 Providence
11 Boise State/Dayton
Friday--Columbus, OH
7 Michigan State
10 Georgia
Friday--Charlotte, NC
2 Virginia
15 Belmont
Friday--Charlotte, NC
16 Lafayette
Thursday--Pittsburgh, PA
8 NC State
9 LSU
Thursday--Pittsburgh, PA
4 Louisville
13 UC Irvine
Friday--Seattle, WA
5 Northern Iowa
12 Wyoming
Friday--Seattle, WA
3 Oklahoma
14 Albany
Friday--Columbus, OH
6 Providence
11 Boise State/Dayton
Friday--Columbus, OH
7 Michigan State
10 Georgia
Friday--Charlotte, NC
2 Virginia
15 Belmont
Friday--Charlotte, NC
Wow, Dayton as one of the last 4 in? That is really surprising. No respect to the A-10 at all I guess
Dayton gets a home game. Boise might be the team who got screwed a little more by that. Dayton would get to stay in Ohio to take on PC on Friday night.
UVA got screwed imo. Arguably had a better year than duke and gets mich st in second round (assuming we get past Belmont which is the worst possible early matchup)
Edit: and did have a better year than Wisco who was 3-2 vs ranked teams. Not sure why it was a given that they were a one. Wisco with zero road wins vs ranked teams.
Edit: and did have a better year than Wisco who was 3-2 vs ranked teams. Not sure why it was a given that they were a one. Wisco with zero road wins vs ranked teams.
DrewDawg said:
Yeah I am with you here, I could see anything happening here - Michigan St winning 3 or 4 games, Louisville or Northern Iowa taking down Villanova, etc. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 4 vs 7 or 5 vs 7 regional final. But both Villanova and UVA are somewhat underrated by the national public so who knows it could be a 1 vs 2.
I want Providence to get a rematch with them to go to the Final 4. Maybe this time it won't end on a bullshit foul call.CoRP said:
There is a good chance that Michigan State would beat Providence in a matchup on the court but what is your basis for such an outrageous claim as to the public line being 6 which is a HUGE number on a neutral court. They aren't even 6 against Georgia, a 10-seed, who is rated below Providence across the board.WayBackVazquez said:
Yea, I mean, I obviously have a bias here, but MSU has a 1-7 record VS top 25 and 10-8 VS top 100.HomeRunBaker said:
PC is 3-4 top 25 and 12-8 top 100.
CoRP said:
Yep. Not the greatest draw, the round 32 game (vs. either NC St. or LSU) will be dangerous. That said, I am not terribly concerned about the possibility of facing either UNI or Louisville to get to the Elite 8. Louisville is over-seeded IMO.
The "bottom" half of the bracket is bananas. UVA got royally screwed, potentially drawing Michigan St. in the round of 32. For a team that could have easily been a 1 seed, that's brutal. Also, in all likelihood, Providence will have to face Dayton at home in the round of 64!?! Ouch!
Yeah, probably was a non-call. Cats got very lucky. They played horribly that game.NickEsasky said:
I am considering driving to Syracuse for the regionals. I'll take a fourth PC match up over UVA.
Ha I am sure you will. I mean PC probably loses to Nova in OT anyway, but having the game decided by free throws on a terrible call with 3 seconds left was a tough pill to swallow.CoRP said:
I wasn't even referring to the game only wondering what his basis is for having MSU favored by 6. The line would likely be a Pick or 1 either way only due to the Izzo factor.PC Drunken Friar said:
I think folks here are overrating Michigan State significantly, and I think they are seeded right where they belong. They played pretty well in the Big Ten tournament, but otherwise, they did NOT have a good year at all. As someone wrote up thread, they were 2-6 this year against top 25 teams (they beat a weak Ohio State team ranked 23rd at the time, and then they beat Maryland in the tournament after losing to them twice in the regular season), and they haven't played well as a team at points all season long. They have a legit star in Dawson, and Trice and Valentine are good little players that can help, but they are really not very good after that. They have very little depth, and they only shoot 63% from the line as a team, which could come back to bite them in the ass when the sphincters tighten up during the tourney during the stretch of a close game. They lost games at home this year to Texas Southern, Illinois and Minnesota. This is not the same Spartan team that Izzo usually brings into the Big Dance. I'd love to see them knock off UVA for the Friars, but I don't see it happening.
Like everyone else, this is the region that I think has the potential to just go crazy. I like LSU a lot this year as a surprise team, and needing to find an upset somewhere on my bracket, I have them beating 'Nova. Mincey is a stud, and could do real damage to any team that they play against. Northern Iowa and Louisville is virtually a toss-up, IMO. And I think the whole Oklahoma, UVA, MSU, Providence side could send any of those teams through.
As always, going to be a long, long week.
Like everyone else, this is the region that I think has the potential to just go crazy. I like LSU a lot this year as a surprise team, and needing to find an upset somewhere on my bracket, I have them beating 'Nova. Mincey is a stud, and could do real damage to any team that they play against. Northern Iowa and Louisville is virtually a toss-up, IMO. And I think the whole Oklahoma, UVA, MSU, Providence side could send any of those teams through.
As always, going to be a long, long week.
HomeRunBaker said:
Because Vegas really likes MSU, as do all the advanced metrics, which is why MSU was favored by 4.5 (is that a HUGE number?) against Maryland on a neutral court a few days ago despite them being unranked and Maryland being the #8 team in the country.
The line against Georgia is 5.5; I expect it will go up by game time, but the spread differential between a matchup against Providence wouldn't be more than a point or so. So does 5-point favorite make you happier?
If you bet right now, you get Providence at 200:1 to win the tournament. Which are the same exact odds as Georgia. MSU is 50:1.
Vegas is not guessing on who they think will win, they are putting the line to attract bets to each side. MSU has the name recognition and tourney reputation that gives them the couple of points extra. Joe Schmo (who i would guess are the majority of NCAA Tournament betters) would look at MSU favored by only 2.5-3.5 and say, WOW, thats easy money, MSU is a great tournament team! And everyone bets MSU.WayBackVazquez said:
So yea, maybe MSU is favored by Vegas, but not because it sees it as the better team. If you really think that it should be a 6.5 (or 5.5 or whatever) point favorite based on talent and are using Vegas lines, what is the rational behind the 7 v 10 game being 4.5-5.5 spread and then, should they win, stay the same (or within a point) if it becomes a 6 v 7 match-up?
Yeah, LSU scares me. Potential battle of the bigs. Will be interesting to see if Ochefu and Pinkston can neutralize Martin and Mickey (those two average a double-double) while allowing the Nova guards to shoot 3s. LSU is a great rebounding team and if the Cats can't make shots it could get ugly quickly.Deathofthebambino said:
You don't have to explain how betting lines work to me. I bet sports, and I watch these things. Which is why, as an objective observer (I have no beef with Providence, and a strong dislike of MSU) rather than a fan of one of these teams, I believe the line would be 5-6 points MSU.PC Drunken Friar said:
The seeding is irrelevant, and if you paid any attention to gambling, you would know that. Or, to put it in your terms, what is the rationale behind Ohio State being a 4-point favorite as the 10 seed? Or, what is the rationale for MSU being a 6-point (as of this morning) favorite over Georgia, while Providence will be less of a favorite over either Boise or Dayton, when Georgia is a higher seed than either?
Look, while none of these things is dispositive in and of itself, these things strongly suggest MSU would be a 5-6 point favorite in the matchup:
* MSU was a 4.5 favorite over MD on a neutral court just a few days ago
* the future odds have been set giving MSU at least 4x more of a chance of winning the region or tournament (MSU is 7:1 to make it out of the region on my site, while Providence is 28:1. Even LSU (10:1) is looking at much shorter odds.)
* every analytic system has MSU has the stronger team, and it has a successful coach and history, which as you mention may appeal to the betting public.
Nobody said your beloved team can't beat MSU. If the matchup happens, you'll have a great betting opportunity.
Dayton out early on Boise State, 10-4 with about 11 minutes to go in the 1st. Actually, more like BSU out really fucking slow. I assume most of us Friar fans/alum are rooting against Dayton, so we won't have to play them at home on Friday night.
Boise has completely turned it around, and they are now up 29-19 with 2 minutes to go until halftime.
Dayton would have been tailor made for PC. The team has no depth and has difficulty scoring. If PC can trounce St. John's at MSG, I wouldn't sweat Dayton. Boise will be the tougher opponent.
shawnrbu said:
I'll second this. Plus Dayton doesn't play anybody over 6'6". I think PC would eat them alive. Boise worries me more.
He missed them both. Still a 1 point lead for Dayton. They trap BSU player in the corner, and ball goes out of bounds. BSU about to inbounds with 4 seconds left. Final shot upcoming. This is an absolute home court advantage for Dayton. Announcers are all over that issue right now, saying how the NCAA got this wrong. Can't say I disagree.
Dayton might be a better matchup for PC, but this crowd has been bonkers, and that's a distinct disadvantage for us. Enough to overcome the matchup? I don't know, but it's very real.
Dayton might be a better matchup for PC, but this crowd has been bonkers, and that's a distinct disadvantage for us. Enough to overcome the matchup? I don't know, but it's very real.
And Dayton wins. BSU can't get a good shot off, results in a pump fake, hope for the foul, flailing three point air ball.. I think it's a good no call.
Obviously the call in the huddle was for something different but Dayton had left the basket pretty open. 13 at the free throw line could have set a pick for 32 before the inbounds and 32 would have been wide open under the basket. Oh well. Sucks that Dayton gets a home game like that.Deathofthebambino said:
Seth Davis did an excellent job of explaining why that was not a foul.. Kyle Davis did leave his feet but had landed before the BSU kid took the shot. The kid tried to create contact but the refs weren't buying what he was selling.bosockboy said:
Friday's game featuring former Dayton signee LaDontae Henton vs. the Flyers should be a great one.
Two things:Deathofthebambino said:
1. The Boise game was played on Daytons home court where they were 16-0 this year. The Providence game is played in Columbus, OH over an hour away where Dayton is 0-0 this year. Completely different surroundings and it isn't their home court.
2. The First Four site is pre-determined to be played at Dayton Arena. Dayton was seeded appropriately to be in the first four games. This wasn't about getting it right or wrong as they cannot change the venue. I'd argue that keeping them out of the tournament or seeding them 4 spots higher while penalizing another school would have been FAR more egregious of an act.
Cheers Death and Go Friars!!!
Here's a piece I did on PC's LaDontae "Buckets" Henton when he was still in HS and had originally signed with Dayton:
http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17328
http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17328