Drew v. 2.0

[InsideTheParker]

I'm actually a bit shocked - but quite pleased - that they Yankees haven't pursued Drew more aggressively. With all the silly money they've thrown around this offseason it doesn't make any sense to begin the season with their current disaster of an infield when a likely bargain like Drew is still available. I mean, how many games do they really think Jeter is going to play at SS? And is Brian Roberts  (who hasn't anything close to a full - or good- season since 2009) actually penciled in as their starting second baseman? And do they actually see Kelly Johnson as their starting third basemen? I mean come on, is this really the Yankees we're talking about?
3 years 30 million (heck at this point they could probably get him for 3/27) would be a great deal for both sides. Drew gets his longterm deal and the Yanks end up with legit options at 3b (because of course, there is no friggin way that Captain Intangibles puts team first and moves from short) and 2b (in Johnson who can replace Roberts)  for this year  and a solid starter at SS for 2015 and 2016. Hope it doesn't happen but it really seems like the most logical scenario for both the Yanks and Drew...

There was a reference in today's Daily News to rumors about Drew's "bad medicals" going around. Forgive if this has been discussed already, but it's the first I've heard of it. Also, Brendan Ryan, their SS backup, is arguably Drew's defensive equal, and Drew didn't help himself with his meh offense in the post-season.

 

[Just a bit outside]

There was a reference in today's Daily News to rumors about Drew's "bad medicals" going around. Forgive if this has been discussed already, but it's the first I've heard of it. Also, Brendan Ryan, their SS backup, is arguably Drew's defensive equal, and Drew didn't help himself with his meh offense in the post-season.

Brendan Ryan is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.  Can't hit his way out of a paper bag but is better than Drew defensively.

 

[Just a bit outside]

I am now waiting for the Orioles to take a shot.  They have no second baseman and clearly do mind giving up draft picks to get a bargain price.

 

[Hoplite]

Met's reportedly made Drew a 1 year/$9.5 million deal, which Drew turned down.
 
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24451364/thanks-to-free-agency-surprises-and-a-bad-rule-drew-begins-own-camp
 
Bogaerts taking a shot at the media?
 
"The 21-year-old phenom knows he can’t control whether Drew returns to the Red Sox sometime this spring. Bogaerts said Saturday all he can do is try to put his best foot forward and show the Red Sox that he’s ready to be their everyday shortstop.
“You hear it every day, especially you media guys talk about it a lot,” Bogaerts said. “It’s something you hear a lot but you can’t focus on that. You just have to focus on baseball and try to help the team.”"
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/02/22/xander-bogaerts-on-stephen-drew-you-hear-about-it-every-day/

 

[jimbobim]

Drew is publicly whining now about the draft pick compensation. 
 
Still think Boras and Drew were betting on significant multiple year offers from either Yankees or Cardinals. 
 
Maybe if he had hit lefties better or at all last year there would be more interest. 

 

[Rasputin]

Drew is publicly whining now about the draft pick compensation. 
 
Still think Boras and Drew were betting on significant multiple year offers from either Yankees or Cardinals. 
 
Maybe if he had hit lefties better or at all last year there would be more interest. 

 
Pretty sure the Cardinals are fine with Peralta. The Pirates, Reds, Yankees, Mets...he's got about a month to find a team. I'm pretty confident he'll do that.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Drew is publicly whining now about the draft pick compensation. . 

 
Link?

 

[LoneWarrior1]

 
 
“You hate to say it, but it really messes up free agency for guys who worked hard,” Drew told CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. “A lot of people don’t want to give up that first-round pick, and that’s what it boils down to. It’s unusual. I understand draft picks, but at the same time, you have a guy who’s proven as very good on defense and a top five shortstop if you look at it.”

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2014/02/22/stephen-drew-critical-free-agent-compensation-rule/NcvQ15p1nOkN5ZOihrJ9iK/story.html?rss_id=Top+Stories

 

[Rasputin]

“You hate to say it, but it really messes up free agency for guys who worked hard,” Drew told CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. “A lot of people don’t want to give up that first-round pick, and that’s what it boils down to. It’s unusual. I understand draft picks, but at the same time, you have a guy who’s proven as very good on defense and a top five shortstop if you look at it.”
 

 
He's not wrong, but I would question whether you should change the rules based on a widespread over valuation of draft picks. And, just as an aside, is it me or are the guys who run baseball teams constantly learning the wrong lessons?

 

[Hoplite]

I would take issue with Drew's comments for a few reasons.
 
1. He didn't have to be attached to draft pick compensation. He could have taken the qualifying offer.
 
2. There were teams willing to give up draft picks. He was reportedly offered a 3 year deal from one of them and turned it down
 
3. I'm having trouble trying to find a statistic or a sample size that would suggest he was a top 5 shortstop
 
He knew what the rules were and only has himself to blame if he doesn't get a nice multiyear deal.

 

[koufax37]

Drew was a free agent last year, knew the rules, and thought a one year deal was wise. He got lots of dollars to buy Dom and Bentleys and played well enough get another offer for more dollars for more Bentleys and more Dom. He knew the rules and said no to that so he could get more. He now has to wait a little for the Mets to realize they are over valuing their current shortstop and over valuing their third round draft pick.

But knowing the system and having it be a system that gives him choices and millions and then more choices and millions and complaining that it messes things up is just dumb. Also make sure to have Boras say it instead of you so you don't look like a greedy ungrateful unemployed millionaire.

 

[Sampo Gida]

The issue really is not draft pick compensation.  Nobody should have a problem with that.  Its the draft pick penalty for teams that sign free agents.  That's what Drew and others are complaining about.  It was never really an issue before except for RP'ers who made less anyways, but now for whatever reason, teams are suddenly and collectively assigning a much higher valuation than they used to (about 5-7 million for a non top 10 pick).
 
I guess it's easy to say in hindsight that Drew and others should have anticipated the changing market, but when markets change suddenly, its not unusual to get caught on the wrong side.  Until this gets changed,  non-elite free agents are probably going to be more likely to accept the QO.
 
 
 

I would take issue with Drew's comments for a few reasons.
 
1. He didn't have to be attached to draft pick compensation. He could have taken the qualifying offer.
 
2. There were teams willing to give up draft picks. He was reportedly offered a 3 year deal from one of them and turned it down
 
3. I'm having trouble trying to find a statistic or a sample size that would suggest he was a top 5 shortstop
 
He knew what the rules were and only has himself to blame if he doesn't get a nice multiyear deal.

 
IIRCC I believe he was 8th among SS in WAR and OPS+ last year
 
I think the teams who were offering multi-year deals were expected to lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick, which drastically reduces the number of teams in play.
 
Sure he could have taken the QO, but at the time did anyone really think he was not worth at least 3/35 on the market?  Players trade AAV for years and total dollars all the time.
 
While the rules are clear, draft pick compensation is hardly a new thing. What is new as I mentioned above is how highly teams seem to be valuing the picks.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

He knew what the rules were and only has himself to blame if he doesn't get a nice multiyear deal.

 
Wait, huh? He has himself to blame if he doesn't get a nice 1 year deal, yes, because he already had that and passed it up. But what could he have done to make himself more likely to get a multiyear deal?

 

[Sampo Gida]

 
Wait, huh? He has himself to blame if he doesn't get a nice 1 year deal, yes, because he already had that and passed it up. But what could he have done to make himself more likely to get a multiyear deal?

 
He shouldn't have played so well that he got a QO?   Or perhaps he should have used PED's like Peralta and put up bigger numbers before sitting out the last 50 games of the season on suspension..

 

[Hoplite]

 
Wait, huh? He has himself to blame if he doesn't get a nice 1 year deal, yes, because he already had that and passed it up. But what could he have done to make himself more likely to get a multiyear deal?

 
As I stated, he reportedly did get a multi-year deal and turned it down.
 

 
 
The Yankees actually made Drew an offer at that time, believed to be for two or three years, when the shortstop was still looking to do considerably better – four or five years.

 
http://nypost.com/2014/02/18/yankees-dont-think-they-need-stephen-drew-but-theyre-wrong/

 

[JakeRae]

Drew was a free agent last year, knew the rules, and thought a one year deal was wise. He got lots of dollars to buy Dom and Bentleys and played well enough get another offer for more dollars for more Bentleys and more Dom. He knew the rules and said no to that so he could get more. He now has to wait a little for the Mets to realize they are over valuing their current shortstop and over valuing their third round draft pick.

But knowing the system and having it be a system that gives him choices and millions and then more choices and millions and complaining that it messes things up is just dumb. Also make sure to have Boras say it instead of you so you don't look like a greedy ungrateful unemployed millionaire.

Drew is getting screwed by a fundamentally unfair system and has every right to complain about it. Just because his loss is relative to a baseline that is pretty awesome doesn't mean his loss isn't real.

 

[Papi's fan]

If Drew hadn't suffered a broken leg he would not even be available today because he would have already signed a 4-5 year deal before he signed on for one season with the Sox. The only thing Drew is a victim of is unfortunate timing. It would appear to cost him money and opportunity.

 

[DanoooME]

The issue really is not draft pick compensation.  Nobody should have a problem with that.  Its the draft pick penalty for teams that sign free agents.  That's what Drew and others are complaining about.  It was never really an issue before except for RP'ers who made less anyways, but now for whatever reason, teams are suddenly and collectively assigning a much higher valuation than they used to (about 5-7 million for a non top 10 pick).
 
I guess it's easy to say in hindsight that Drew and others should have anticipated the changing market, but when markets change suddenly, its not unusual to get caught on the wrong side.  Until this gets changed,  non-elite free agents are probably going to be more likely to accept the QO.
 
 
 
 
IIRCC I believe he was 8th among SS in WAR and OPS+ last year
 
I think the teams who were offering multi-year deals were expected to lose a 2nd or 3rd round pick, which drastically reduces the number of teams in play.
 
Sure he could have taken the QO, but at the time did anyone really think he was not worth at least 3/35 on the market?  Players trade AAV for years and total dollars all the time.
 
While the rules are clear, draft pick compensation is hardly a new thing. What is new as I mentioned above is how highly teams seem to be valuing the picks.

 
 

Drew is getting screwed by a fundamentally unfair system and has every right to complain about it. Just because his loss is relative to a baseline that is pretty awesome doesn't mean his loss isn't real.

 
Drew is in the same predicament even under the old rules:
 

A player with six or more years of major-league service (on the team's 40-man roster) who is not under contract for the following season is automatically a free agent.
Teams can receive compensation for the player with a draft pick in the following year's draft in June. To receive compensation, the team must offer the player salary arbitration.
It is then up to the player to either accept arbitration or sign with another team. The team must offer salary arbitration to the player by early December or the team will not be allowed to negotiate with or sign the player until the following May 1. After arbitration is offered, the player has two weeks to accept or refuse salary arbitration. If it is refused, the player can only negotiate with the club until Jan. 7. after which no more negotiation can take place until May 1.
Top free agents are classified as Type A (the top 20 percent at their position as determined by the Elias Sports Bureau), Type B (between 21 and 40 percent at his position). If a Type A free agent who had been offered arbitration signs with another team, the team receives two first-round draft picks the following June - either a first- or second-round pick of the new team (depending on a team's record the previous season) and a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds. Type B free agents earn just a "sandwich" pick.
If there are 14 or fewer Type A or Type B free agents available, no team can sign more than one type A or B player. If there are between 15-38, no team can sign more than two. If there are between 39 and 62, there's a limit of three. However, teams can sign as many Type A or B free agents as they've lost, regardless of the limits above.
 

 
You could certainly make a good argument that he's in that top 20% under the old system and whoever would sign him would still lose their first round pick.  And in this old system, as a player you'd probably lose 4 suitors no matter what (in Drew's case, the Yankees, O's, Jays and Rays) because you don't want your first round pick to go directly to your competition.
 
He can complain about it all he wants, but he's in that place where he's probably undervalued relative to a first round pick (and the bonus money).  Plus there just aren't that many teams that (a) have the need to upgrade at SS AND (b) have the money to upgrade at SS.

 

[TheYaz67]

Poor Drew - my eyes have seen his future, and its something along the lines of Nelson Cruz's one year, $8 million deal with the O's....
 
The Mets should stick with their one year $9.5M offer - that may end up doing it, absent an injury on another team during Spring training that opens up a spot for Drew.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Drew is getting screwed by a fundamentally unfair system and has every right to complain about it. Just because his loss is relative to a baseline that is pretty awesome doesn't mean his loss isn't real.

 
I’m glad you have this figured out so well but can we really be certain of this philosophically?  Maybe a loss relative to an awesome baseline isn’t much of a loss at all.  Instead, Drew is experiencing a reduction in excess, not necessarily a genuine or meaningful loss.

 

[Koufax]

I can't get past the fact that he turned down not one but two offers that were very attractive.  He made some poor business decisions.  It's on him, not the system.  He's got to man up.
 
 
edit: typo

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Maybe his agent shouldn't have had him sign a contract with a team with two young shortstops who would be ready to play in 2013-14. Or maybe his agent should have made the Red Sox agree not to give him a qualifying offer.

He turned down $14m. His agent so far has misread the market. Calling the system "unfair" is pointless. It is what it is. His agent has used the existing system to get incredibly attractive deals for other clients.

Perhaps they should say that a player cannot get a qualifying offer in consecutive years. Protects team and player better. In reality, it may prompt players looking for one year deals to not sign with wealthier teams who can afford high $$ one year deals.

 

[fuzzy_one]

 
The Yankees clamp down on their budget the same way that Putin encourages political dissent. 

 
Thank you. My sig was out of date. This'll do nicely.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Maybe his agent shouldn't have had him sign a contract with a team with two young shortstops who would be ready to play in 2013-14. Or maybe his agent should have made the Red Sox agree not to give him a qualifying offer.

He turned down $14m. His agent so far has misread the market. Calling the system "unfair" is pointless. It is what it is. His agent has used the existing system to get incredibly attractive deals for other clients.

Perhaps they should say that a player cannot get a qualifying offer in consecutive years. Protects team and player better. In reality, it may prompt players looking for one year deals to not sign with wealthier teams who can afford high $$ one year deals.

 
Other posters have asserted that such an agreement is not allowed under the current CBA. (In the past, clubs could agree to not offer arbitration to FA's.)

 

[Clears Cleaver]

 
Other posters have asserted that such an agreement is not allowed under the current CBA. (In the past, clubs could agree to not offer arbitration to FA's.)

 
Thanks. I see that now. I guess handshake deals between boras and the Sox never happen (lol). Drew did not have a great market after 2012. He got more money from boston than anywhere else if I remember correctly. He won a WS title. But he signed with a team that was a lock to give him a QO if he was healthy. Not sure how you quantify all that.

 

[Hoplite]

Mike Carp will be doing work at third base.
 
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/content/20140223-mike-carp-giving-third-base-a-shot.ece
 
That would appear to make Drew even as a utility player redundant. Or it could be posturing. Is this real life?

 

[kazuneko]

Mike Carp will be doing work at third base.
 
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/content/20140223-mike-carp-giving-third-base-a-shot.ece
 
That would appear to make Drew even as a utility player redundant. Or it could be posturing. Is this real life?

Drew would never sign as a utility player. Any signing of Drew is a statement that the team is looking for an upgrade of defense at SS and offense at 3B (through shifting Xander to the corner).  Middlebrooks  would end up trade bait.
I like the idea of Carp trying out 3b. A Lefty bat who can play 3B would be a great thing to have on this bench. Not sure if it's likely he can actually be adequate defensively at 3b but if he could pull it off this would make Carp significantly less redundant on a team that already is carrying one defensively similar (Nava) and two defensively limited (Gomes and Ortiz) players.

 

[reggiecleveland]

It seems obvious Farrell considers Gomes the better defensive player than Nava.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I love having Carp try to play third base. He won't be good at it, but maybe he will be able to cover it for a game here or there, which gives him more opportunity to get into the lineup. 
 
He's a first baseman who is not good in the OF either but became good enough to stand out there for a few dozen games a year to get his bat in the lineup. If he can do that at third too, then that will help him and the team. 
 
Maybe we'll see a spring training game with an infield of Carp at third, X at SS, Middlebrooks at second and Nava at first. That would be an entertaining exhibition.

 

[Pearl Wilson]

There was a reference in today's Daily News to rumors about Drew's "bad medicals" going around. Forgive if this has been discussed already, but it's the first I've heard of it. Also, Brendan Ryan, their SS backup, is arguably Drew's defensive equal, and Drew didn't help himself with his meh offense in the post-season.

 
Olney mentioned this past week (one of his ESPN-BT podcasts) that it was a hip issue. First I heard of it in relation to Drew. 

 

[LeoCarrillo]

It pains me a bit to cite Rosenthal, but he makes a good point in this blurb:
 
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/compensation-free-agents-may-hold-out-until-after-june-draft-022314
 
If Drew or the other QO limbo guys Ervin Santana and Kendrys wait until after Opening Day, the team that signs them *can not* offer them a QO following the season. (Must be with team *entire* season is the rule). It would allow those players to take a pillow contract and not be a QO hostage again next off-season.

 

[Hoplite]

It pains me a bit to cite Rosenthal, but he makes a good point in this blurb:
 
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/compensation-free-agents-may-hold-out-until-after-june-draft-022314
 
If Drew or the other QO limbo guys Ervin Santana and Kendrys wait until after Opening Day, the team that signs them *can not* offer them a QO following the season. (Must be with team *entire* season is the rule). It would allow those players to take a pillow contract and not be a QO hostage again next off-season.

 
Would suck for us, we wouldn't get the draft pick for him.

 

[Bigpupp]

The Sox get a draft pick as long as Drew signs before the June draft. What Rosenthal is saying is that they (Drew, Santana, Morales) can't be offered a QO next off-season and have this happen again.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Would suck for us, we wouldn't get the draft pick for him.

The Sox only lose out on the pick if Drew goes unsigned until after the draft in June. And the signing team loses their pick if they sign him before the draft. Doesn't bode well for a pillow contract situation from any team's perspective.

 

[Apisith]

It pains me a bit to cite Rosenthal, but he makes a good point in this blurb:
 
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/compensation-free-agents-may-hold-out-until-after-june-draft-022314
 
If Drew or the other QO limbo guys Ervin Santana and Kendrys wait until after Opening Day, the team that signs them *can not* offer them a QO following the season. (Must be with team *entire* season is the rule). It would allow those players to take a pillow contract and not be a QO hostage again next off-season.

This will probably be the way pillow contracts work in the future. Announce a signing in December, actually sign one day into the season. The values of the contract would be lower because teams lose out on the ability to get a draft pick at the end of the year, but the players would benefit much more from this. Drew would have had a lot more interest if a pick wasn't attached to him.

It would be in Drew's best interest to actually wait this out until June because no one will give him a pillow contract when the season starts. Either sign now or wait until June.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This will probably be the way pillow contracts work in the future. Announce a signing in December, actually sign one day into the season. The values of the contract would be lower because teams lose out on the ability to get a draft pick at the end of the year, but the players would benefit much more from this.

If the player doesn't officially sign, I don't think he can work out in camp or appear in spring training games for the team. Doesn't seem optimal for the team, especially if they have someone filling the position in camp who plays his way into the lineup.

 

[kazuneko]

It would be in Drew's best interest to actually wait this out until June because no one will give him a pillow contract when the season starts. Either sign now or wait until June.

Don't see why the Yanks wouldn't be willing to give him a pillow contract after the season starts. It's not like that Johnson, Jeter, Roberts infield is getting younger or better between now and April 1st. If waiting allows them to sign Drew to a 1 year/9.5 million deal that would seem worth the wait..

 

[Hoplite]

Yeah, I'm an idiot. I misread what Rosenthal was saying.

 

[Apisith]

I'm not sure it's in Drew's interest to go for another pillow contract. If he's going to wait, why not wait until June and then look for the original 4 year deal, then? Yes, one year will be prorated but I don't see why that would be that big of a deal if you want him long term; you would still have him for over half a season plus the postseason.

If Drew didn't have the pick attached, StL would have been all over him, IMO. They would have got him for 4/40 or 5/45. I don't think Drew overrated his market, he just underestimated the effect of losing the pick.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Yeah, I'm an idiot. I misread what Rosenthal was saying.

 
It's also academic. As a couple people have pointed out, it's great for the player but sucks for the team (actually a net loss of one pick). So it's a non-starter.

 

[nvalvo]

I love having Carp try to play third base. He won't be good at it, but maybe he will be able to cover it for a game here or there, which gives him more opportunity to get into the lineup. 
 
He's a first baseman who is not good in the OF either but became good enough to stand out there for a few dozen games a year to get his bat in the lineup. If he can do that at third too, then that will help him and the team. 
 
Maybe we'll see a spring training game with an infield of Carp at third, X at SS, Middlebrooks at second and Nava at first. That would be an entertaining exhibition.

 
If he can cover it passably even for a few innings, that allows a lot more flexibility for PH, especially in the NL parks. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

There is absolutely zero chance Drew is sitting out till June. Zero. Spring training hasn't even really started yet, once the games begin and injuries start happening then Drew will get his money.

 

[trekfan55]

If the player doesn't officially sign, I don't think he can work out in camp or appear in spring training games for the team. Doesn't seem optimal for the team, especially if they have someone filling the position in camp who plays his way into the lineup.

 
True, plus a player needs to get in shape before the season starts by taking live pitching and defense to work out their timing and stuff. 

 

[wallypip]

Don't see why the Yanks wouldn't be willing to give him a pillow contract after the season starts. It's not like that Johnson, Jeter, Roberts infield is getting younger or better between now and April 1st. If waiting allows them to sign Drew to a 1 year/9.5 million deal that would seem worth the wait..

The draft pick isn't really an issue for the Yankees.  If they sign Drew, they lose a second round pick, but if they stick him with a QO for next season, they could gain a first rounder. 
 
I don't see the Yankees wanting Drew unless they are pretty sure that he is going to play a lot of SS in 2014.

 

[The Boomer]

The Mets are so ineptly managed that they are likely to value a chubby and unmotivated Ruben Tejada over bringing in Drew for what he is worth plus the loss of only their third round draft pick:
 
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/25/the-mets-arent-happy-with-ruben-tejadas-conditioning-could-push-them-toward-drew/
 
Drew to the Mets is a no brainer except to the Mets.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Mets are so ineptly managed that they are likely to value a chubby and unmotivated Ruben Tejada over bringing in Drew for what he is worth plus the loss of only their third round draft pick:
 
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/25/the-mets-arent-happy-with-ruben-tejadas-conditioning-could-push-them-toward-drew/
 
Drew to the Mets is a no brainer except to the Mets.

 
The Post article that your link links to includes this quote:
 

 
“I would not be surprised if we signed Drew,’’ one Mets official told the Post, “but at the same time, I don’t expect it to happen.’’

 
I think that translates to "we're absolutely trying to sign him, but we need to temper expectations until there's something to announce."
 

 

[Mike F]

The status quo
Unless it changes
Will remain the same

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

The status quo
Unless it changes
Will remain the same

It's Mikeku

 

[someoneanywhere]

The status quo
Unless it changes
Will remain the same

When you are the steak
You don't ask
What time is Dinner
Unless of course
You are
Leftovers

 

[Niastri]

Are the Mets really so broke that a very good baseball decision for 10 mil is beyond their means?