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Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by bosox79, Apr 30, 2019.

  1. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,743
    We have the daily threads but this is more for discussion about what the prospects are doing over the course of the year.

    We all know about Michael Chavis but a few other farmhands are off to great starts as well. Given the SSS, this list is going to be short on pitchers atm.

    Josh Ockimey: The Sox didn't even bother protecting the 23 year old 1b from the Rule 5 draft, and no one drafted him. Maybe he's used that for motivation, as he is off to a very strong start in Pawtucket. In 20 games and 81 PA, he is slashing .254/.420/.603 with 16bb/19k and 5 HRs. He had a pretty decent year last year as well but struck out in 31.0% of his plate appearances, which is entirely too much. If he can cut down his K rate, he might have a future in the MLB.

    CJ Chatham: A former 2nd round pick in 2016, his career had been somewhat derailed by injuries. He remained somewhat healthy last year and showed the ability to hit for average, though with very little power and a poor BB rate. In the early going this year, he's slashing .343/.403/.478 with 7bb/11k in 77 PA at AA. Given he's a SS, if he can hit .300+, he wouldn't have to do much else to be a plus hitter at the position.

    Bobby Dalbec: He had a pretty brutal start to the season last year before picking up in the summer, and he's off to a slow start this year as well. In 79 PA, he's slashing .206/.367/.333 with 15bb/20k. His ability to make contact is still very much in question.

    Durbin Feltman: He's been hyped for awhile and is considered to be on the fast track. He's held his own in AA this year to date. 7 games, 3.86 era, 7.0 innings, 2 hits, 4bb/9k, 0.86 WHIP.

    Denyi Reyes: Reyes made a name for himself last year with his pinpoint control in the lower levels. In the early going at AA, he has not maintained the minuscule BB rates. In 4 starts this year, he has pitched 18.1 innings and has 10bb/16k. He had 19bb in 155.2 ip last year.

    Jarren Duran: Last year's 7th round pick, OF/2b Jarren Durran has hit the ground running. In 67 games and 302 PA last year, Duran hit .357/.394/.516. He is off to a .404/.465/.562 start this season in 99 PA. He doesn't turn 23 until September but he is slightly old for Salem as far as legit prospects go. They'll have to think about promoting him to Portland in a week or two if he continues to hit. He needs to be challenged. His career line in the minors to date: 401 PA, .368/.411/.527. Get him to Portland, yesterday. I'm starting to get very giddy about him. It's really hard to hit .368 in any league over 401 PA.

    Bryan Mata: A relatively unknown, Mata made a name for himself after his very good 2017 season as an 18 year old. He struggled with control last year before being shut down at the end of July. This year, he is off to a very promising start in Salem: 5 starts, 1.40 era, 25.2 ip, 7bb/26 and a WHIP of 0.974. He doesn't turn 20 until May 3rd so he's very young for the league.

    Kutter Crawford: He's following a solid 2018 campaign with a great start in Salem. 5 starts, 1.96 era, 23.0 ip, 8bb/26k and a WHIP of 1.130. I'm not sure how he'll hold up as a starter but he may have a career as a MR.

    Triston Casas: Last year's 1st round pick is off to a slow start in Greenville. The 19 year old is hitting .219/.298/.384 in 84 PA, with 9bb and a staggering 30k. That K rate is very, very discouraging but it's very early in his career.

    Brandon Howlett: A 21st round pick, Howlett put himself on the radar with a great debut last year. That is not the case so far this year. In 72 PA, he's slashing .197/.250/.258 with 4bb/24k.

    Cole Brannen: A 2nd round pick in 2017, Cole Brannen has had a very disappointing career to date. In 84 PA this year, Cole is slashing .173/.262/.240 with 9bb and 31k. He has had 554 career PA in the minors and his career slash line is .186/.301/.225 with 73bb and 162 strikeouts. He has a career ISO of .039. That is so pathetic. On the plus side, he's 39/44 in SB.

    Tanner Houck: The 1st round pick in 2017, Tanner Houck struggled in the first half of last year before starting to pick it up. In his last 6 starts of the season, he had a 2.06 era in 35.0 IP with 41K/6bb, and a WHIP of 1.09. He hasn't been as dominate as he was to end the season last year, but he's been pretty good. 4 starts, 3.60 era, 20.0 innings, 7bb/21k.
     
  2. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    16,048
    Something worth noting about Duran: his BABIPs are *insane.* He has never posted a BABIP under .400, and this season he's above .500.

    That's not a knock on him, but they need to get him to a level where the infield defenses can handle his speed before we'll be able to get a read on his offensive potential.
     
  3. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Totally agreed, To add some perspective, Travis Shaw and JBJ were teammates in Salem at roughly the same age as Duran.

    Shaw: 99 games, 423 PA, .305/.411/.545
    JBJ: 67 games, 304 PA, .359/.480/.526

    A year later, the once promising Garin Cecchini played in Salem during his age 22/23 season.
    Garin: 63 games, 262 PA, .350/.469/.547

    Using those as a guideline, Jarren Duran has at least another month in A+. He doesn't have the walk rate of the others but he does have that plus plus speed that you mentioned.
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Some encouraging news re Casas. He was 2/5 with a HR on Wednesday and 1/4 with a HR yesterday. He's also been cutting down on the strikeouts.

    Also Duran has a 9 game streak where he's been on base at least twice. During those 9 games: 45 PA, .475/.533/.575, 5bb/9k, 7sb/1cs.

    Feltman got roughed up pretty hard yesterday, going 1.0 ip, 3 hits, 4 er, 4bb/0k. 2 of the hits were doubles.
     
    #4 bosox79, May 3, 2019
    Last edited: May 3, 2019
  5. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,743
    Bobby Dalbec had been struggling a bit but yesterday he went 4/5 with 3 HRs, and 2 days ago he was 3/5 with a HR. And just like that, he is up to .248/.387/.495 for the year.

    Jarren Duran cooled off slightly for a few games but is now back up to .398/.450/.516 in the first 31 games.

    Triston Casas has slashed .353/.405/.794 in his last 37 PA with 2bb/5k. He's up to .252/.320/.495 for the year.

    Ockimey was in a pretty bad slump too, but may have broken out of it. He was 1/3 with a HR on May 10th, and he was 2/4 with 2 HRs yesterday. At .219/.380/.552 for the year. Quite the slash line.
     
    #5 bosox79, May 12, 2019
    Last edited: May 12, 2019
  6. Heating up in the bullpen

    Heating up in the bullpen lurker

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    191
    Similar to Mitchy Two Bags’ line of .231/.319/.590 (trading more OBP for less SLG)
     
  7. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Going a little deeper into Dalbec since he has the same amount of PA this year in AA as he did last year

    2018: 124 PA, .261/.323/.514, .377 BAbip, 6 HRs, 6bb/46k. 4.8% BB%/37.1% K% (In Salem it was 14.3% BB%, 31.0% K rate)
    2019: 124 PA, .248/.387/.495, 6 HRs, 22bb/32k. .302 BAbip. 17.7% BB%/25.8% K%
    18 PA ago: .200/.358/.318, 2 HR, 20bb/30k, .283 BAbip.

    He has a much lower BAbip this year but has had a much better approach at the plate. It's not that uncommon for players to press upon promotion and the sample sizes are small so I'm not sure how much it means, but the difference in K/BB are pretty drastic. Maybe now we will start seeing the approach pay off.


    I know our farm system is kinda pathetic but it's sad there's more discussion about the Yankees farm system on this board than the Sox. I'll probably just Jon Abbey this thread with a bunch of random updates.

    Sam Travis: He struggled last year and was off to a meh start this year, but over the last 16 games he's at .339/.439/.554. For the year, he's at .264/.366/.396 with 16bb/28k in 123 PA. Vs R: 91 PA, .195/.330/.316. Vs L: 39 PA, .405/.436/.551. He's always had a heavy split but I doubt he has a real path to Boston for any type of playing time.

    Darwinzon Hernandez: I'm a fan of his but I think there was a lot of helium around him this off season. He has no clue where the ball is going after he throws it, he has a long way to go. His line in AA: 5 games/5 starts, 19.1 IP, 14 hits, 19bb/25k. 4.19 era. There's been very little hard contact against him so that's a positive.

    After being roughed up on 5/2, Feltman continued to pitch like garbage in his following 2 appearances. For the year, 11 games, 12.0 ip, 7 hits, 2 HRA, 13bb/11k.
    5/2: 1.0 ip, 3 hits, 4 er, 3bb/0k
    5/5: 1.0 ip, 2 hits, 4 er, 2bb/1k
    5/8: 1.0 ip, 0 hits, 0 er, 4bb/0k
    We may want to bump the breaks a little bit.

    Kutter Crawford: 2 more starts, 11.0 ip, 8 h, 4 er, 4bb/19k. For the year: 7 games, 2.38 era, 34.0 IP, 12bb/45k, .210/.293/.331 against. If he keeps it up for another 4-6 weeks, he'll probably earn a promotion to Portland.

    Joan Martinez: The 22 year old MR has seen a huge spike in his K% in the early going. In 18.2 ip, he has a 2.41 era with 6bb/31k. Last year, his K% was 23.6% and his BB% was 15.7%. In the very early going this year, it's at 38.3%/7.4%. He also has a huge arm and can hit 100 on the radar gun. This isn't a guy getting by on pitchability. If he's starting to put it together, he could be a very huge piece.

    Jake Cosart: The 25 year old was demoted to Salem earlier this year. He's another guy with a really big arm but he struggled mightily with command and hasn't had any success past A ball. This year in 15.2 ip, he has 2bb/16k with a 1.72 era in 11 games.

    Alex Marrero: The 21 year old catcher was an 8th round pick in 2016. In the very early going at Greenville this year, he's slashing .282/.391/.500 in 46 PA with 3 HRs, 7bb and 13k. Prior to the year, he was at 228 PA, .144/.272/.227, 4 HRs, 26bb/77k. It's probably just small sample size but he may be worth keeping any eye on the following couple weeks, especially since he's a defense first catcher.

    Oddanier Mosqueda: Besides having a really awesome name, the 20 year old left hander is off to a decent start in Greenvill. 3.93 era, 16.0 innings, 19 hits, 5bb/24k. K% of 32.9%, BB% of 6.8%. He sits around 94 and has a nice repeatable delivery. He's been a bit too hittable to date though.
     
  8. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,743
    Darwinzon Hernandez had his most encouraging start of the year on Thursday: 7 ip, 5 hits, 3er, 2bb/11k.

    Triston Casas: He was pretty awful in his first month of full season ball but has been the exact opposite of that in May. The only thing different is the strikeout rate, but it's such a huge difference. He went from striking out in more than a 3rd of his plate appearances to 1/7.
    April: 22 games, 88 PA, .208/.284/.364, .304 BAbip, 9bb/31k
    May: 15 games, 63 PA, .315/.397/.630, .310 BAbip, 7bb/9k

    Bobby Dalbec: Followed his 3 HR game with a 1/3, HR performance.
    Last 11 games: 45 PA, .359/.444/.846, .346 BAbip, 6bb/8k, 5 HRs.

    Josh Ockimey: I posted about the first 2 games, but he followed it up with another 2 HR game. Quite a 5 game stretch 5/12, 5 HRs, 9 BB.
    5/10: 1/3, BB, HR
    5/11: 2/4, BB, 2 HR
    5/12: 0/2, 2 BB
    5/13, 2/2, 2 HR, 2bb
    5/14 0/1, 3bb
    Start-4/30*: 84 PA, .258/.417/.591, .293 BAbip. 11 xbh, 5 HRs, 16bb/20k *doesn't include G2 on 4/30
    4/30*-5/9: 28 PA, .043/.214/.087, .083 BAbip, 1 xbh, 0 HRs, 5bb/11k *doesn't include G1 on 4/30
    5/10-Now: 29 PA, .316/.517/1.158, .125 BAbip, 6 xbh, 5 HRs, 9bb/7k. His other hit is a double. 21 of his last 29 PA are of the 3 true outcomes variety.
    YTD: 141 PA, .222/.397/.583, .230 BAbip, 18 xbh, 10 HRs, 30bb/38k. His BAbip in 2018 was .329, 2017 was .362, 2016 was .284, 2015 was .408, 2014 was .280. He's already having a monster year and he's doing so by being incredibly unlucky.

    Jarren Duran has reached base at least twice 17 times in the last 20 games, and at least 3 times 10 times in the last 20 games. He's been on base a total of 50 times during that stretch. He's slashing .452/.521/.560 with 10bb/20k and 8/11 sb in 96 PA over that stretch. Call him up to Portland already.

    Alan Marrero: Another good week for the 21 year old catcher. Coming into the year, he had 4 career HRs and 4 career doubles in 228 PA. He already has 4 doubles and hit his 4th HR of the season yesterday in just 68 PA. SSS and all, but he's now slashing .265/.379/.592 with 9bb/19k.
     
  9. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    33,626
    I miss the daily Minor League Game Threads. But I know how much work they took so . . .

    Went to McCoy last night, first time this year. Good crowd for Saturday fireworks (and a decent fireworks show, too). Same crowd as in the past, lots of young families, teens out together, and a few old folks like us.

    Teddy Stankiewicz started and got hit hard in the first inning, including a no-doubter home run to Travis Demeritte. Old friend Ryan LeMarre had 2 hits for Gwinnett (Braves). Fastest pitch was 89 MPH or so

    Pawsox couldn't figure out Patrick Weigel, who no-hit them through 4 innings, but was pulled after that.

    Holt had a humpback single in three attempts, played 7 or 8 innings at 2B, and made all the routine plays including a nice DP turn, Pedroia was 0-4 with a K as the DH.

    Marco Hernandez played SS and wasn't tested, was 0-4 at the dish.

    Rusney. Rusney is enjoying himself. Rusney walked twice and scored in front of an Ockimey HR. Rusney also casualed a high flyball to deep right that was catchable at the wall, but bounced off of the middle of the wall for a double. He followed that play by nearly running over Gorkys Hernandez (0 for 3, now hitting .167) to catch the next ball, which was hit to pretty much straightaway CF. Gorkys laughed, this was obviously not the first time Rusney has done this and he did it again later on.

    Matt Gorst did well in 1.2 innings, with 3 Ks
    Jenrry Mejia came in for the 9th in a 4-2 game and got the first 2 guys and then got squeezed on a Strike 3 call and followed that by giving up a long HR to Adam Duvall. Pawsox got 2 on in the bottom of the 9th via walks, but luckily Ockimy made the final out so we could see the fireworks show and head to home.

    Jantzen Witte made one really nice play at 3B on a line drive with runners on.
     
  10. RoDaddy

    RoDaddy Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    2,159
    For a farm system rated next to last by BA only a few months ago, I’m very impressed with the farm so far this year. And now I see Dalbec just won BA’s Prospect Hot Sheet a few days ago. I mean, the big league club is so stacked with talent (including a lot of farm system graduates, a main reason their farm system is now ranked so low) that they really only need the occasional quality prospect from time to time. And that’s exactly how things seem to be shaping up, with Chavis already up and helping out. Josh Ockimey would probably be next up if needed, and I suppose Shawaryn could be included here as well (although I’m not overly confident about him). Dalbec looks like he might be ready in a year or so, and maybe Duran as well (can they just promote him to Portland already?!). Chatham, Fitzgerald and Hart continue to look good, and behind them, Mata and an improving Casas with Groome and Flores soon to come. Not bad for the number 31 ranked farm system in baseball.
     
  11. edoug

    edoug Member SoSH Member

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    1,946
    31st? They must be ranked behind Mudville.:)
     
  12. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,743
    It's also not true the farm system sucks because all our prospects are playing on the big league squad, outside of Devers maybe. DD has done a terrible job rebuilding the farm system since the Sale and Kimbrel trades and he's had plenty of time to do so. It was never his strength though.
     
  13. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,222
    The only ways to rebuild a farm system these days is to lose a lot of games or do a major sell-off of veterans.

    Unless you believe that drafting is a skill but I don't think anyone has shown that so far. (Here's a 2014 538 article on the NFL draft that discusses this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/).
     
  14. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    4,397
    The only thing that'll rebuild the system without trading major-league assets (and only ones with positive value) is time.

    What exactly would you like, a great major league squad or a shit ML squad and a huge prospect ranking? Pretty sure they could rebuild on the fly by trading Beni, Mookie, Devers, Chavis, Barnes, X, and Vazquez (yes, even him,) but somehow, that seems suboptimal toward the end goal.
     
    #14 Adrian's Dome, May 20, 2019 at 11:21 AM
    Last edited: May 20, 2019 at 11:27 AM
  15. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    9,743
    I'd like both. Plus he's had some time and the early results aren't promising. Casas is looking like a good pick though.. There is also truth to what Wade said, and a lot of times the prospects that end up contributing aren't on top 100 lists anyway. I just don't think he's done a particularly good job on the farm to date.
     
  16. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I don't agree with either of these, there are lots of ways to add talent to the minor league system currently besides high draft picks. The Astros and the Dodgers contend every year and still have loaded systems. The Yankees have poured money into scouting everywhere possible: other team's systems, the draft for lower round picks, and internationally, and it's paid off quite a bit for them. I agree with @bosox79 that it's surprising how much DD has let the farm wither over the last few seasons, but as we all knew, it's never been his strength as a GM.
     
  17. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    4,397
    Both? And I'd like to wake up next to Ariana Grande every morning, but I just don't think it's in the cards.

    Teams generally don't have awesome major-league squads full of graduates from the farm system at the same time as having that same farm flourishing with talent.

    Houston is the exception, not the rule. Generally it's more a Tampa or Philly-like situation where you have to suck out loud for a few years before getting back into the game.
     
  18. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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    2,210
    Jarren Duran is looking like a great pick as well. I think DD does do a bad job of evaluating relievers, really dont want to see another mid-season trade for a bullpen arm.
     
  19. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    In the past, teams have been able to pour money into one or another sector of talent acquisition and they - like Theo and Cashman - could tilt the odds in their favor not necessarily by being more skillful but just giving themselves more chances.

    Today's rules eliminate most - if not all - of these advantages. Even in international scouting, where I supposed a team could throw a ton of money trying to establish relationships, the team still has to figure out which of the various 16, 17, or 18 year olds to sign given the international bonus money cap.

    I have never seen a study that concludes that drafting well is a repeatable skill. As the 538 article mentions, that is not to say that people don't have a run of great picks. When 538 did their analysis, Ron Wolf, A.J. Smith, and Bill Polian were the three best drafting GMs on a per pick basis and they were fired because they had a string of bad drafts. Ozzie Newsome drafted 2 HOFs in his first draft as a Raven and lately has whiffed on most of his first two round picks.

    Teams can throw as much money into the process as they want but at the end of the day, the potential value difference between the #1 overall pick and the #21 overall pick is so high that the money they spend wouldn't be material.

    On thinking about it more, I guess one could say that a team that spends heavily in Latin America can get the equivalent of the #1 Latin pick without being the worse team in baseball. So I guess money in Latin America can give a team a slight edge over another team (cough - Orioles - cough) who didn't spend any money in Latin America. But so many major league baseball teams are spending millions in Latin America these days, I would think the difference is all that dramatic but I guess it's a good topic for someone to study.
     
  20. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Right, where you can get the difference is 1) lower round draft picks, 2) trading for lower level players already in other team's systems and 3) the international market. To be clear, I'm not talking about directly spending on talent acquisition because as you say, the CBA has made that impossible in most ways. I'm talking about making scouting at every level a top priority and it doesn't seem like BOS has kept up with the other top few teams in this regard in recent years (but I believe they hired a bunch of people recently to try to close the gap).
     
  21. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,222
    I know everything intuitively sounds obvious but - just the first example - I've not seen anything (and I would be happy to be corrected) that suggests that anyone can draft better in lower rounds than anyone else. Even in football, two of the teams that have most "success" in drafting - the Ravens and the Patriots - subscribe to the "sales" theory of drafting - the only way to better the odds is to have more chances. The draft salary cap doesn't really allow that in baseball.

    It would be interesting to know that scouting can actually make a difference in developing talent but I'm skeptical. I'm even more skeptical that any team is better able to find players in the lower levels of the minors than any other team. Particularly these teams are looked at by hundreds if not thousands of players. I would be shocked if any study ever found evidence that one person or set of people had a skill at doing this, and if they did, they'd be the most valuable people in baseball.
     
  22. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Nor does the restriction on being able to trade picks.

    I think the closest thing to the "sales" theory of accumulating picks in MLB would be getting compensation picks for departed free agents. Changes to that system has made it incrementally harder to build through that method, but it is part of how Theo and Cherington excelled in building the Red Sox farm system. Matt Murton, Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, Nick Hagadone, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranuado, Jackie Bradley Jr, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson were all compensation picks those two GMs made who became major leaguers of varying success.
     
  23. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Teams can trade for slot money in the international draft. The amount they can trade for is capped though. The Redsox did so a few years ago when they traded Santiago Espinal (I think) to the Jays.
     
  24. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Yeah, you can trade for up to 75 percent additional on your international pool, but also if you can identify the right players at a younger age (which means like 14, a bit icky), you can lock them into lower bonuses. This is how NY has signed 4 of the top 12 international prospects in each of the past two seasons, they have traded spare parts for the maximum allowed international money both seasons.
     
  25. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    40,983
    I'm not really quite expert enough about this to talk about it in detail, but another differentiation point is that teams have different numbers of minor league affiliates, it looks from the below linked list like everyone has between 7 and 9 affiliates, but that is a difference of 50 players under control.

    http://www.milb.com/milb/info/affiliations.jsp
     
  26. shaggydog2000

    shaggydog2000 Member SoSH Member

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    5,297
    I don't know that more non-prospects helps all that much. You can only draft so many players and sign so many international players, and the rest of these teams are minor league filler. I guess that is another 50 extreme lottery tickets, but I'm not seeing the real value in it.
     

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