I thought I had answered that but let me try again. I originally stated "It may be a better idea to allow Wright and EdRo to build up from their injuries using middle & long relief with some spot starts.". I could see how that may have been less than understandable. Here I'll try again. Using Cobb as a starter while allowing EdRo and Wright to recover slowly while using them as middle & long relief with some spot starts may be a more appropriate use of Cobb.
Do we need another starter?
- Thread starter chawson
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What Hawk is asking you, imo, is why would Cobb sign with the RS for maybe 10-12 starts and then possibly be moved to the bullpen when Rodriguez and Wright return to the rotation, when he could sign elsewhere and have a guaranteed rotation spot for the entire year? And why would the RS spend that kind of coin on a spot starter/long relief arm in the first place. The first makes no sense for Cobb, and the second makes no sense for the RS.
That's what i read from it, anyways.
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I think getting Cobb is not that bad of an idea. Getting some power to the line up is the biggest need but adding a quality arm is never a bad thing and he is right handed. When Rodriguez comes back maybe have a a 6 man rotation. Wright becomes the spot starter. It's unlikely to happen but failing on signing Martinez or acquiring the bat they need maybe it should be a consideration.
Exactly what I'm saying. This team has six starters that have to be housed on the 25-man roster if they're not on the DL (or suspended). Adding a seventh doesn't make a ton of sense, let alone spending $16M/year on the guy and committing long term to him. It would be one thing if they knew one of their pitchers was going to be out for the year or if they intended to combine the signing with a trade of one of the other pitchers. But they're not going to create a potential roster crunch that could cost them a player elsewhere to make it work.
Put another way, they currently have 9 pitchers who either have no options or can refuse an option: Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Wright, Johnson, Kimbrel, Kelly, and Hembree. They also have a handful of guys they're unlikely to want to option just to retain assets: Rodriguez, Barnes, Thornburg, and Smith. That's 13 pitchers that, if healthy, are going to be on the 25-man roster if they're still in the organization. It's already one to many if everyone is healthy, I just don't see them adding another, especially on a significant long-term deal, without one or more corresponding moves.
And that's not even considering whether a free agent pitcher is going to sign on to a roster situation like this without assurances that one or more of the other starters is going away.
PapaSox is saying this (correct me if wrong PapaSox):
Cobb- starter
EdRod/Wright: bring them along slowly then use EdRod as a LH pen specialist and Wright as a long man if SP 1-5 are healthy (Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, Cobb). If a 6th or 7th starter needed, use one of these 2.
Cobb- starter
EdRod/Wright: bring them along slowly then use EdRod as a LH pen specialist and Wright as a long man if SP 1-5 are healthy (Sale, Price, Pom, Porcello, Cobb). If a 6th or 7th starter needed, use one of these 2.
If Cobb were to sign here, his contract of 80 million plus would realistically be the assurance that he's a lock for the rotation, but I'm sure they would tell him as much as well. I imagine it would also mean one of Porcello/Pomeranz/Rodriguez would be traded.
If Cobb is signed in combination with a trade of one or more of Rodriguez or Wright or Pomeranz or Porcello to improve some other part of the roster, I don't think that's unreasonable or undesirable.
Signing Cobb without moving one or more of the pitchers currently under contract is untenable. It's a misappropriation of resources by the Red Sox and it's a situation I can't see Cobb agreeing to enter into.
Signing Cobb without moving one or more of the pitchers currently under contract is untenable. It's a misappropriation of resources by the Red Sox and it's a situation I can't see Cobb agreeing to enter into.
The more I poke around Cobb’s numbers, the more I doubt he’s worth his asking price.
Cobb allowed a ton of hard hit balls last year—10th in MLB (min 120 innings, behind Ian Kennedy, Robbie Ray, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Archer, Derek Holland, Rick Porcello, Erasmo Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco, and Ubaldo Jimenez). Pitchers can pull that off with high strikeout rates (like Ray or Archer), but Cobb’s among league-worst in swinging strike and K rate.
Command and velocity are back to pre-surgery levels, but he threw his once-good changeup far less last year, and is increasingly becoming a two-pitch pitcher, a sinking fastball and curve. He’s no longer an elite groundballer either. That rate has fallen nine percentage points since his last full season (2014).
My worry would be that he’d go full Porcello here, but he wouldn’t have even Porcello’s so-so K rate to bail him out.
Cobb allowed a ton of hard hit balls last year—10th in MLB (min 120 innings, behind Ian Kennedy, Robbie Ray, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Archer, Derek Holland, Rick Porcello, Erasmo Ramirez, Ricky Nolasco, and Ubaldo Jimenez). Pitchers can pull that off with high strikeout rates (like Ray or Archer), but Cobb’s among league-worst in swinging strike and K rate.
Command and velocity are back to pre-surgery levels, but he threw his once-good changeup far less last year, and is increasingly becoming a two-pitch pitcher, a sinking fastball and curve. He’s no longer an elite groundballer either. That rate has fallen nine percentage points since his last full season (2014).
My worry would be that he’d go full Porcello here, but he wouldn’t have even Porcello’s so-so K rate to bail him out.
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Tampa gave Cobb a qualifying offer, so that's another reason we probably won't be signing him.
If he hadn't had the QO and would take a 3 year deal, then it would make sense to sign him, and slot him into the rotation all year. You could then bring back injured guys slowly while also seeing what you could get in a trade for Porcello or Pomeranz. But the QO and the likelihood that Cobb will get more years and probably more money than we should give him makes it really really unlikely we sign him.
This site claims that the Cubs offered Cobb 3 years, $42 million, but he turned it down and is looking/hoping for $20 million a year.
This Brewers site says that he's come down a bit from that $20 million hope, but still is looking for 4 years, $70 million.
He probably won't get what he is hoping for, but he's already turned down a bargain offer, so he'll probably end up somewhere between those, like 4 years, $64 million or something.
If he hadn't had the QO and would take a 3 year deal, then it would make sense to sign him, and slot him into the rotation all year. You could then bring back injured guys slowly while also seeing what you could get in a trade for Porcello or Pomeranz. But the QO and the likelihood that Cobb will get more years and probably more money than we should give him makes it really really unlikely we sign him.
This site claims that the Cubs offered Cobb 3 years, $42 million, but he turned it down and is looking/hoping for $20 million a year.
This Brewers site says that he's come down a bit from that $20 million hope, but still is looking for 4 years, $70 million.
He probably won't get what he is hoping for, but he's already turned down a bargain offer, so he'll probably end up somewhere between those, like 4 years, $64 million or something.
FWIW (and probably not a ton) Cobb- in 34 career starts vs the Yanks, O's and Blue Jays has an ERA under 3.
I agree they would need to move a starter, but am not sure who is worth moving. Pomeranz will be a free agent so won't bring back a big piece. Rodriguez is recovering from his procedure. Price is a big question mark and has a difficult to value contract.
I guess Porcello wouldn't be that hard to move, but I would only want to move someone to get some good prospects which they desperately need. I don't see that happening with any of our guys.
I don't think he's a big upgrade over any of our guys either but would bring some long term stability.
I agree they would need to move a starter, but am not sure who is worth moving. Pomeranz will be a free agent so won't bring back a big piece. Rodriguez is recovering from his procedure. Price is a big question mark and has a difficult to value contract.
I guess Porcello wouldn't be that hard to move, but I would only want to move someone to get some good prospects which they desperately need. I don't see that happening with any of our guys.
I don't think he's a big upgrade over any of our guys either but would bring some long term stability.
Assuming Price is not seriously hurt, I wonder if Theo would think that reuniting Price with Maddon and Hickey is worth the gamble? Not sure what a trade like that would look like, but it would seemingly free up some salary for the Sox to redistribute elsewhere.
Porcello makes sense for a team with a short window and a good outfield. That seems like the Twins, who may want to go for it while they still have Mauer, Dozier, Escobar and an effective Ervin Santana and 60 percent of their division is trash.
I doubt they'll be able to lure Arrieta, Cobb, Darvish or Lynn, and they desperately need a starter or three to help Santana and Berrios. They have a shortstop logjam with Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, and Wander Javier. Bogaerts is not going to come cheap to replace (or re-sign) and something like this might be the cheapest way to do it.
If Price is healthy, why would we not want him making 30+ starts in a Red Sox uniform this season? If he's healthy, he's still a damn good pitcher. I'm not sure what the Red Sox could buy if they were to be alleviated of their obligation to Price that they can't buy anyway.
It's getting into Donner Party territory. With no new transactions to eat, we're starting to gnaw at the bones of old transactions.
Well, the end of the offseason should be a wild one. If not Boras going off like a bomb should be entertaining. Players might try swinging Clarke up on a lamp post. Lots of interesting stuff to look forward to
Not a bad idea. I cant imagine Price opting out no matter how well he can pitch this year but that's the hope. The concern with Price is his health and the last 3-4 years of his deal. He has pitched well when healthy except for a rocky start in his first season, especially against the Yankees in 2016
Obviously any trade probably has the Red Sox eating some salary , but will free up enough money to sign one of the available FA (Darviah or Arrieta) Red Sox rotation has too many southpaws that don't match up well against the RH Yankee Bombers. Maybe can get Schwarber in return by throwing in a couple of other pieces, assuming the Cubs are not too worried about the elbow. Might have to throw in JBJ
I'm surprised we don't have a page of replies talking about Carson Smith avoiding arbitration.
I really think there are going to be some amazing bargains out there. I can't find the article but David Freese was talking about how nerve wracking it was for him not having a job well into March in 2016 so he finally just took a 1 yr/3 mill deal. Not that David Freese is a very good baseball player, but I'm sure a lot of these bottom third players are getting really anxious that their agents may have misread the market.
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I'm as big a Schwarber fan as there is around these parts, but no. JBJ for Schwarber might be a fair swap (I am open to the idea that it's an overpay by the Red Sox, though).
I just read that there is some idea that Yu Darvish might be settling for a 5 year-$90 Million contract.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-real-chance-darvish-resonable-price-article-1.3755828?utm_content=buffer3919f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=NYDNSport
He probably wasn't even mentioned in this thread because of the likelihood of receiving a Price-like $200 Million deal.
Darvish at $16 M? Sign me up please. He would be such great value that the Red Sox could trade any one of Edro, Porcello or Pomeranz to recoup value or shed salary.
That is providing he would actually sign that contract.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-real-chance-darvish-resonable-price-article-1.3755828?utm_content=buffer3919f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=NYDNSport
He probably wasn't even mentioned in this thread because of the likelihood of receiving a Price-like $200 Million deal.
Darvish at $16 M? Sign me up please. He would be such great value that the Red Sox could trade any one of Edro, Porcello or Pomeranz to recoup value or shed salary.
That is providing he would actually sign that contract.
The Red Sox are paying Rick Porcello $21 Million in 2018. Getting Yu Darvish for $16 Million per year is a huge upgrade in comparison. It's such a huge upgrade, that they could subsidize Porcello's contract for $5 Million for the next two years to maximize the return and still improve the team.
Yeah. According to Cot's, there are 15 starters currently making more than $18M per year, including Porcello. http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/
Darvish is better than at least half those pitchers. I mean Carlos freakin' Zambrano got a better deal than 5/$90M way back in 2007.
Unless Darvish has some hidden injury or criminal record, I don't think there's any chance his offers are all coming in below $18M per year. The Twins of all team shave supposedly been "seriously" pursuing him all winter, and if "serious" means 5/$90M, then their front office should be fired.
Darvish is easily going to get >$100M and >$20M per year. Something close to Lester's deal, if he can get that 6th year. This market might be slow, but it's not stupid.
To answer the thread title, we don't need another starting pitcher. But if we can get a really good starting pitcher on a really good contract, we could make room for one, and that is a creative way we could potentially improve the team.
In addition to the injury concerns of Price, Rodriguez, and Wright, there is a real chance Price could opt-out after this season, and so a good starter on a good contract would protect us from being in a tough spot if that happens.
In addition to the injury concerns of Price, Rodriguez, and Wright, there is a real chance Price could opt-out after this season, and so a good starter on a good contract would protect us from being in a tough spot if that happens.
After watching an entire offseason of depressed FA contracts this winter, why would Price bet he'd get more than $124 million as a 33-year-old next winter?