Do the Yankees Moves Rekindle the Rivalry?
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
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While he's under control, I'm not convinced we won't be looking back at this as a career year from a guy who is already 31 years old (and will finish the season at 32). There is a reason Tim Wakefield is one of the rare exceptions that could succeed as a knuckleballer long term.
We're getting a glimpse of how difficult it can be when the conditions aren't right with the sweating or humidity or rain, etc...
And that's not to say he won't be on the major league roster next year. I just don't think it's likely he's going to be particularly noteworthy going forward. That might make for an interesting article on it's own, though.
We're getting a glimpse of how difficult it can be when the conditions aren't right with the sweating or humidity or rain, etc...
And that's not to say he won't be on the major league roster next year. I just don't think it's likely he's going to be particularly noteworthy going forward. That might make for an interesting article on it's own, though.
What? The reason that it's rare is that so few people throw a knuckleball. How many knuckleballers who have been good enough to make the majors, and throw 200+ good innings like Wright has, just suddenly flame out? There's a short list of those who have met those criteria, and none that I can see who have just flamed out around 32 years old.
I don't know how I forgot about 2003. Thanks. I'll ask the team to fix that and add a note at the bottom about the change.
Well, first off, I don't expect him to flame out and just vanish. I just don't expect him to be noteworthy. That's a different way of saying that when I wrote it, it simply didn't occur to me to include him in the list of pitching assets going forward in the first place. And second, the reason so few throw a knuckleball is that it's an incredibly difficult thing to do, and it is probably the pitch that is most dependent on feel. I think that in order to really dig into it, and again, this is probably worth an article, you need to decide what a large enough sample size of success is before fading away again.
Wright was spectacular early in the year when conditions were a bit more favorable. But since it started getting really hot and muggy (middle of June) he has a 4.85 ERA with 6.15 runs scored against him per 9 innings. He hasn't been good. Part of that is the nature of throwing the knuckleball. When it's not there, it's awful. But part of it might be that he just has trouble when it's really hot, or when it's wet. If that's the case, he's never going to be an impact pitcher over a full season.
I don't mean to talk down on him, and I hope I'm wrong here. I'm not trying to argue the Sox should be looking to replace him in August with a waiver wire deal or anything like that. He's a perfectly suitable back end of the rotation pitcher. It's just meant to be an explanation for why he wasn't included in that list of pitchers.
Yes, but why do so few people throw a knuckleball? Just because?
How about Wally Burnette, who had three decent big league seasons but whose career ended abruptly after his age-29 season, apparently because he was walking an increasing number of people?
Beyond that, your argument is kind of self-defeating in that the very smallness of the sample limits the inferences one can make from it. Even if true, the fact that nobody out of a few dozen pitchers happens to have followed a certain career pattern would not necessarily make it improbable for Wright to follow it.
It certainly rekindles my disdain for Ben Cherington, who was in a position to restock just like Cashman, and managed to get so little return while in seller mode.
Although, it's always unclear how much ire should be directed at Luchhino for the 2014 deadline decisions. And really the only stinker was the return on Lackey. Koji probably should have been moved for prospects, but there's never been any disclosure what sort of bid price was actually available for him.
I'd rather have had prospects than Cespedes for Lester, but Porcello finally looks like he may turn out to be a good acquisition target, even if he also would likely have been available as a FA last offseason in a crowded pitching market and not very likely to have gotten much more than his current AAV. EdRo for Miller was a steal, given the circumstances. Peavy's rental wasn't ever likely to return much, and Hembree finally looks like a credible MLB bullpen arm.
But boy, did the Sox ever get fleeced by the Cardinals on their best trade chip.
On that note, how did Craig go from being one of the best hitters in the National League to outright sucking in basically the blink of an eye?
Are you talking about 2014? Not even close to the same market there; what the Yankees just pulled is unprecedented. But that said, you can trace Porcello, Edro, Kelly, Hembree and Hernandez to those deadline moves. Yeah, Kelly has turned out to be a bust so far, but don't forget he was coming off a 140 ERA+ season and looked like he had a ton of upside, versus a year of an aging and possibly malcontent Lackey- at the time I don't think it looked like a bad deal at all. In retrospect of course he's massively underperformed (and Lackey's done the opposite), but I don't think Cherington's at fault for that.
There are so many good reasons to hold Ben Cherington in contempt, but I don't think this is in the top seven reasons on the board.
I've been watching too much Family Feud recently, sorry.
Lisfranc injury to his foot, which is generally terminal to a professional athletic career.
While I think the Yankees and Cashman did the smart thing and got some great return on their investments, their current roster is still old and mediocre and a bunch of prospects in single and double A do nothing to change that in the immediate future. They're a solid 3 years behind the Sox in terms of development cycle. Guys like Xander, Mookie, Moncada, and Benintendi will be in their prime and still cost controlled when most of these guys start sniffing the big leagues.
Obviously the Yankees will restock with FA the way they always have when the dead weight contracts they're carrying now come off the books and sign the next generation of superstars for unreal money based on past production. It's what they do.
I don't think these kids specifically close the gap or rekindle the rivalry. I think when they sign Bryce Harper to a 15 year deal for half a billion dollars, that's what closes the gap.
Obviously the Yankees will restock with FA the way they always have when the dead weight contracts they're carrying now come off the books and sign the next generation of superstars for unreal money based on past production. It's what they do.
I don't think these kids specifically close the gap or rekindle the rivalry. I think when they sign Bryce Harper to a 15 year deal for half a billion dollars, that's what closes the gap.
Andrew Benintendi was just promoted from AA. They might do the same with Moncada. AA isn't that far away.
Yup, having prospects does nothing for a rivalry. Both teams being good at the same time creates the rivalry.
I think it is a sign that the rivaly will return but not that it is back yet. We will see if the Yankees have the discipline to follow through, and to wait for after 2018, and then go nuts. Are they willing to suffer through a couple of rough years as the kids break in.
But yes, I do think that there is a real good chance that starting around 2019 there is going to be a really interesting rivalry at the top of the AL East between the Sox and Yankees
But yes, I do think that there is a real good chance that starting around 2019 there is going to be a really interesting rivalry at the top of the AL East between the Sox and Yankees
I would agree, however I think that both Benintendi and Moncada are a different tier of prospect than anyone that the Yankees either had or received from those trades. They're both widely viewed as top 10 prospects, with Moncada maybe being THE top prospect in all of baseball. The Yankees just don't have anyone of that caliber.
Couple that with the fact Bogaerts, Mookie, and Bradley are already all-stars in their own right, the Sox are going to have a very, very good young core for the foreseeable future that should be as good or better than any team's.
Maybe the Yankees get there, but I think it's far more likely they use these prospects as trading chips rather than actually taking the time and suffering through a few years of being bad while these prospects develop.
Cherington -and ownership- did go the extra mile to sign Moncada. I'll literally take Moncada over every single guy the Yankees got this week...combined. So we can throw bouquets at Cashaman all day long but not opening the wallet for Moncada seems like a big miss on their part.
I look at the rivalry as this alligator who was always ready to jump out of the water and eat but has been pretty full for a long time.
Until they play each other in a long series where the ball parks are buzzing from the night before, it's not coming back. The history between these teams was augmented 15 years ago by players with personalities that made it so easy root against them. I can't think of any Sox players who I actively root against on this current roster.
I'm not trying to list players for any other reason than to illustrate the divide but you had all of the below players who at one time or another were involved in controversy or were hated by the other fan base.
Jeter
Arod
Clemens
Giambi
Posada
Mo
Joba
Oneill
Pedro
Nomar
Ortiz
Boone
Varitek
Sheffield
Damon
Bellhorn
Arroyo
And I'm forgetting a whole shit load through the years. You can essentially name the entire rosters from 03-06 because everyone was on board.
Until they play each other in a long series where the ball parks are buzzing from the night before, it's not coming back. The history between these teams was augmented 15 years ago by players with personalities that made it so easy root against them. I can't think of any Sox players who I actively root against on this current roster.
I'm not trying to list players for any other reason than to illustrate the divide but you had all of the below players who at one time or another were involved in controversy or were hated by the other fan base.
Jeter
Arod
Clemens
Giambi
Posada
Mo
Joba
Oneill
Pedro
Nomar
Ortiz
Boone
Varitek
Sheffield
Damon
Bellhorn
Arroyo
And I'm forgetting a whole shit load through the years. You can essentially name the entire rosters from 03-06 because everyone was on board.
The last prospect they had that was on the Benintendi or Moncada level was Jesus Montero, unless you count Tanaka. And before that it was Sloba The Butt. And before it, Phil Hughes.
A little bit after the peak rivalry years, but the one Sox player who used to make my Yankee friends blood boil was Kevin Youkilis.
The paragraph is quite a contrast:
I'm not about to get my panties in a bunch because the Yankees acquired some decent prospects. I'll take two top-10 prospects about to push their way into the majors over seven in the top 100 and the on-field talent gap is massive. Their team is several years away from contention. Free agency matters less and less due to revenue-sharing and the Yankees are only now starting to adjust.
I bet that not a single position player from that first para is a starter on the next Yankee championship team.
The Yankees aren't loaded up with young talent. The Yankees have a bunch of young crappy players, and the Red Sox counter with some of the best young talent in baseball. I mean really, Starlin Castro has been below replacement level this year. Didi Gregorius is maybe a league-average middle infielder. Aaron Hicks has a 35 RC+. Luis Severino can't hold down a major league starting job yet. Rob Refsnyder? Are you serious?
I'm not about to get my panties in a bunch because the Yankees acquired some decent prospects. I'll take two top-10 prospects about to push their way into the majors over seven in the top 100 and the on-field talent gap is massive. Their team is several years away from contention. Free agency matters less and less due to revenue-sharing and the Yankees are only now starting to adjust.
I bet that not a single position player from that first para is a starter on the next Yankee championship team.
While the youth movement was necessary and long overdue (fuck you Rays did you really have to sweep them and get Hal upset?) I think it premature to project that the yield from yesterdays discovery of the fountain of youth by the MFY will reignite the intensity to the late 70s or late 90s-2006 white hot rivalries. I do think it will reignite the hype of the farm, to build future trade values.
As an aside, I do not know if it possible (from a signing basis), but the possibility of the Sox having an entirely homegrown** team with high-ceiling guys is going to be a bitch to compete against, no matter how many $500 million contracts the MFY commit to.
C-Swihart/Vaz
1st-Hanley (asterisk)/Shaw
2nd Pedey
SS-X
3rd-Moncada
LF-AB
C-JBJ
RF-Mookie
DH-Hanley (same asterisk)
throw in some pitching...
As an aside, I do not know if it possible (from a signing basis), but the possibility of the Sox having an entirely homegrown** team with high-ceiling guys is going to be a bitch to compete against, no matter how many $500 million contracts the MFY commit to.
C-Swihart/Vaz
1st-Hanley (asterisk)/Shaw
2nd Pedey
SS-X
3rd-Moncada
LF-AB
C-JBJ
RF-Mookie
DH-Hanley (same asterisk)
throw in some pitching...
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The moves made this week might kick up the rivalry. But the rivalry is only really hot when both teams are contenders. If the recent moves eventually lead to that for the Yankees at a time when the Sox are also in contention, then the rivalry will be much stronger than it is today.
That said, now that the Yankees (and really their fans) cannot lord "19-18" over the Sox and their fans' heads, and the Sox hold a 3-1 titles advantage in this century, things will never really be the same. Whether it was ever really a rivalry, that the Yankees were the winningest team next to the Sox annual Charlie Brown status is what defined the relationship between these teams in many ways. The Sox were the pesky little brothers, always nipping at the Yankees heals, but never getting over the top and becoming an equal. Until that changed. With that change, the feel will always be different.
Another factor is the Nouvelle Toillette. Even when the Yankees won there in 2009, home field in the Bronx did not have the same intensity and carry the same advantage that the prior Can did. Hell, in the really expensive seats in the new stadium, there is absolutely no possibility of Sox fans being abused or even shouted down when they cheer. There wasn't a seat in the old stadium you could say that about (except maybe immediately behind each dugout...maybe). In short, the new place is antiseptic and detracts from the Yankees' intimidation factor over all teams, including the Sox.
Again, the rivalry can and will come back if both teams are good at the same time. But even then, it will be a lot different than it was pre 2004 and even in the few years thereafter when fans and players were still getting used to the new order.
That said, now that the Yankees (and really their fans) cannot lord "19-18" over the Sox and their fans' heads, and the Sox hold a 3-1 titles advantage in this century, things will never really be the same. Whether it was ever really a rivalry, that the Yankees were the winningest team next to the Sox annual Charlie Brown status is what defined the relationship between these teams in many ways. The Sox were the pesky little brothers, always nipping at the Yankees heals, but never getting over the top and becoming an equal. Until that changed. With that change, the feel will always be different.
Another factor is the Nouvelle Toillette. Even when the Yankees won there in 2009, home field in the Bronx did not have the same intensity and carry the same advantage that the prior Can did. Hell, in the really expensive seats in the new stadium, there is absolutely no possibility of Sox fans being abused or even shouted down when they cheer. There wasn't a seat in the old stadium you could say that about (except maybe immediately behind each dugout...maybe). In short, the new place is antiseptic and detracts from the Yankees' intimidation factor over all teams, including the Sox.
Again, the rivalry can and will come back if both teams are good at the same time. But even then, it will be a lot different than it was pre 2004 and even in the few years thereafter when fans and players were still getting used to the new order.
For all of the self congratulating and backslapping about how much better our young guys are than theirs, I would point out the fact that we have guys like Mookie, X, and JBJ in the majors as cost controlled youngsters putting up all-star seasons right now, and still can't even put away the Orioles and Blue Jays in our division. I'm not sure that graduating prospects in a vacuum has anything to do with the rivalry, frankly. It's one component of having a good team, and only having both teams be good will rekindle the rivalry. I mean, by the time Devers is having his first full season in the majors, X could be having his first full season on the Yankees (as much as I hated typing that), batting in front of Harper.
We can't say that they won't have the success that we have because their prospects aren't as good as ours, when even with the additions of Price and Kimbrel, throwback Papi, etc., we aren't even a lock to make the playoffs. This will shake out however it does, and the rivalry may come back, but I'm not sure how we can say these trades are or are not going to be the cause.
We can't say that they won't have the success that we have because their prospects aren't as good as ours, when even with the additions of Price and Kimbrel, throwback Papi, etc., we aren't even a lock to make the playoffs. This will shake out however it does, and the rivalry may come back, but I'm not sure how we can say these trades are or are not going to be the cause.
There is only one position player on the Yankees under 32 with an fWAR that is more than a rounding error above replacement level, and that's Didi, who does seem like a pretty much league average SS like you said.
My perspective as a Yankee fan is that Cashman and Yankee fans owe the Red Sox a thank you, because Boston's success in establishing a core of young position players right in front of Hal's nose gave Cashman a concrete example to point to when trying to convince Hal to move guys like Miller and Beltran.
What these moves do is put NY in a better position going forward compared to Baltimore and Toronto, so that by 2018 or 2019, I'd guess that we'll be back to Boston and New York being the clear top two teams in the division. I agree that Boston is obviously decidedly ahead and there may be a large gap between the two, but NY is at least moving in the right direction for once.
What these moves do is put NY in a better position going forward compared to Baltimore and Toronto, so that by 2018 or 2019, I'd guess that we'll be back to Boston and New York being the clear top two teams in the division. I agree that Boston is obviously decidedly ahead and there may be a large gap between the two, but NY is at least moving in the right direction for once.
It'll rekindle the rivalry when the other foot drops during the off season and Cashman trades the chips he just acquired to acquire the necessary parts to rebuild the team and make them competitive. Obviously I have nothing to back it up to suggest that's the plan, but if recent history is any indication, the Yanks aren't waiting for most of these kids to develop. I would be surprised if the Yanks have already accepted 2017 and/or 2018 as rebuilding years.
edit: Steven Wright is a Yankee killer in the SSS over three seasons. 33 IP, 20 H, 1.91 ERA
edit: Steven Wright is a Yankee killer in the SSS over three seasons. 33 IP, 20 H, 1.91 ERA
Of course the farm is reloaded - with players scouted and developed by other organizations. What is the general consensus on the Yankees ability to find and develop talented players? Without knowing more than how that system's prospects have evolved into ML players over the past ten years (successes are what, Gardner, Betances?) I couldn't say.
That would seem to me to be the key to deciding if they actually intend to field an ML team with these prospects or trade them away for shiny baubles.
That would seem to me to be the key to deciding if they actually intend to field an ML team with these prospects or trade them away for shiny baubles.
You guys might want to take a look back at the 2014 Red Sox. Bogaerts and Bradley combined for 0.8 fWAR and most of that was Bradley's defensive component. The farm was actually pretty similar to what the Yankees have now, too. Swihart was the top prospect on the list at 14, Henry Owens at 15 at mid-season with nothing else in the top 50 (as high as they went that year). The pre-season rankings has Bogaerts at 2 of course, but he graduated very quickly leaving the Sox with Owens at 40, JBJ at 50, Swihart at 73, Cecchini at 74, Betts at 75, Allen Webster at 88 and Trey Ball at 89. Yet, two years later here we are.
It takes time to break in prospects, and the early returns are often a bit ugly. I'm not arguing that the Yankees' major league roster is currently filled with future all stars, though. I'm pointing out that they have a lot of young players with upside on both sides of the promotion line, and the group still in the minors just got a lot better. This week was a major step toward having a hugely competitive roster in the next few years. Maybe they keep everyone and hope that a few stars emerge the way Cherington did. Maybe they trade all of them for young stud major leaguers. Maybe they do something in between. Either way, the Yankees are loaded with young talent right now and have nothing but options ahead of them for putting together another monster team.
It's certainly possible it all falls apart, but I don't think anyone can make a credible argument for the Yankees not being in a vastly better position today than they were a month ago with respect to the future.
An important factor in carrying out the newly adopted build versus the old buy model is how threatening the Mets are to the Ys primacy in their shared market.
Will the Steinbrenners tolerate decling ticket sales, or decling ratings for 2-3+ years as they wait for the fruit to mature? If the Mets win with an exciting pitching staff, and a couple of positional stars, and (re)capture the hearts and minds of NYers, will the Steinbrenners remain true to the slower build. model?
Lets not forget that in the 80s and early 90s the Mets were the more popular team. My guess is year 1 ('17) the Ys hype the hell out of the new and young Yankees and hope for the best. Year 2 there may be continued patience but unless Judge/Sanchez/ and some of the recently added prospects start to look like marketable stars, the Steiny wallet will be wide open, and its back to buy.
Will the Steinbrenners tolerate decling ticket sales, or decling ratings for 2-3+ years as they wait for the fruit to mature? If the Mets win with an exciting pitching staff, and a couple of positional stars, and (re)capture the hearts and minds of NYers, will the Steinbrenners remain true to the slower build. model?
Lets not forget that in the 80s and early 90s the Mets were the more popular team. My guess is year 1 ('17) the Ys hype the hell out of the new and young Yankees and hope for the best. Year 2 there may be continued patience but unless Judge/Sanchez/ and some of the recently added prospects start to look like marketable stars, the Steiny wallet will be wide open, and its back to buy.
I think people have made too much of what the Yankees have accomplished here. The only guy they acquired in the top 100 close to major league ready is Frazier and while he looks like a nice piece, he is not a certainty to be a star. They don't have a single prospect in the top 20, so very large bust potential here and nobody that looks like they will be a game changer. Other than Frazier, their other homegrown top prospects close to MLB ready were Sanchez who is blocked by McCann at C, and Judge who had a rough start in AAA this year, and while he did go on a nice hot streak before getting injured, his K rate is a concern. Of course, former prospects who could be a factor next year are Severino and Bird (DL)
The other top prospects have yet to get to AA, had off seasons, been injured and/or are too young to project with any certainty.
The farm system is very position player oriented, not much in terms of starting pitching that's close to MLB ready. After 2017 the only starter on their current roster that is under team control will be Severino. If Tanaka stays it would be because he had a poor 2017 as he has an optout. A lot of their future payroll will have to be tied up in starting pitching which is quite expensive, unless they sell off some of their prospects for pitching
Also, the Yankees owner is hell bent on getting under the LT threshold. Those revenue sharing rebates are perhaps most significant to the Yankees who pay the most in revenue sharing. Its unlike he goes past the LT threshold even if he resets the rate since he would lose the rebates. Those days when the Yankees outspent everyone by a significant margin are over, and have been for several years as the Yankees have allowed payroll inflation to reduce their financial advantage by keeping payroll fairly constant. Their payroll would be well over 300 million if they kept up with payroll and revenue inflation.
Not to minimize the advantages of having a good farm system and a payroll near the LT threshold. They could be formidable in future years with some prospect luck and good decision making in trades and FA acquisitions, but until they do, they are a team that will have gone 4 straight years without winning a playoff game after this season, whose outlook is bleak for 2017, in an era where 1/3 of teams make the playoffs each year.
The other top prospects have yet to get to AA, had off seasons, been injured and/or are too young to project with any certainty.
The farm system is very position player oriented, not much in terms of starting pitching that's close to MLB ready. After 2017 the only starter on their current roster that is under team control will be Severino. If Tanaka stays it would be because he had a poor 2017 as he has an optout. A lot of their future payroll will have to be tied up in starting pitching which is quite expensive, unless they sell off some of their prospects for pitching
Also, the Yankees owner is hell bent on getting under the LT threshold. Those revenue sharing rebates are perhaps most significant to the Yankees who pay the most in revenue sharing. Its unlike he goes past the LT threshold even if he resets the rate since he would lose the rebates. Those days when the Yankees outspent everyone by a significant margin are over, and have been for several years as the Yankees have allowed payroll inflation to reduce their financial advantage by keeping payroll fairly constant. Their payroll would be well over 300 million if they kept up with payroll and revenue inflation.
Not to minimize the advantages of having a good farm system and a payroll near the LT threshold. They could be formidable in future years with some prospect luck and good decision making in trades and FA acquisitions, but until they do, they are a team that will have gone 4 straight years without winning a playoff game after this season, whose outlook is bleak for 2017, in an era where 1/3 of teams make the playoffs each year.
And having fans of each side think of their team as "our guys" inflames it.
A rivalry's better when each team has a distinct identity, whether it's by promoting a terrific young core of new stars or self-identifying as "idiots" or whatever.
I get what you're saying, and appreciate it. But comparing the two franchises, one has young star players, some core and complimentary players in their late 20's to early 30's,some high end prospects, and a deep prospect pool, and the other has some established young players who are bad to average (Pineda, Romine, Starlin, Hicks), a small group of late 20's to early 30's guys, a mostly aging core, and a recently deepened prospect pool. I don't think they're very comparable. The Yankees are going to have to work in volume to replace their core, going through a large number of their prospects to find the group of keepers, and that is riskier, whereas the Sox already have a core that worked out and a handful of higher probability prospects. Sure, some of the guys on the fringe of their roster right now could develop, and a number of the prospects could as well. And if and when that happens, they'll be good. But that's not something to worry about until it happens. Just like all the times people get concerned about have too many starting pitchers.
Didn't want to start a new thread, and wasn't sure where best to put this, so I'll ask in here since it's somewhat relevant: any guesses on whether or not ESPN will pick up the 9/18 game? Yankees will likely be long done by then, but the Sox should be in AL East contention, and it's the final Ortiz Yankees game. I'm hoping "yes" since the Patriots home opener is at 1pm, and I'd hate to see it up against that.
Final at Fenway, yes. But the big one will be the HUGE sendoff/gifts the Yankees give him at The Toilet.
Meh.
There's literally not a single player on the team that rises any kind of visceral response. Just another divisional rival until there's some reason to hate them.
