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Do the Celtics have any players who are very good?

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by Koufax, Dec 4, 2014.

  1. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Rozier has a ridiculous wingspan for a 6-2 guard I'm pretty sure it's longer than Turner or at least comparable. Even though Turner has 5 inches on him Rozier plays much bigger than a typical 6-2 guard and is much more athletic with better hops.

    I also feel Ainge is going to be looking to spend max dollars on a second tier guy like Horford (I wish it were DeRozan but I digress) and isn't going to be strapped with a $10m deal on a reserve guard.
     
  2. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Rozier can rebound so I'm not sure what Turner could possibly have over him or (insert any cheap FA).
     
  3. 4 6 3 DP

    4 6 3 DP Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    I think one thing you can say about the C's is that while you can argue how many "very good" players they have, they have a number of very good contracts. The question is how Danny converts those into players, but given Danny can't control pingpong balls, he's done a hell of ajob maximizing assets.
     
  4. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I didn't know that about Rozier's wingspan, so I looked it up. He has the same wingspan as Turner, he's 5 inches shorter (not 6, as I thought) and he has 3.5 inches more vertical leap. Turner still can guard bigger men because he's a bigger guy, but the physical differences between the two players is less than I thought. So yeah, if some other team wants to really overpay for Turner, maybe he's gone. I think that Danny would go to $9M x 4 for him. More than that, I doubt.
     
  5. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    I agree that Turner has been a quite adequate backup playmaker for the Celtics this year and last, not to mention a screaming bargain at 3m/y, but a good team needs to do better, and can. Rozier looks to have a high ceiling as a backup scoring point guard.

    I like the idea of throwing money at Horford because he's such a good fit with Stevens' design for existing personnel. Excellent rim protection, good 3-pointer perimeter spot-up, adequate rebounding (Smart and Rozier carry plenty of load there), and after all, it's only max money.

    I watch DeRozan frequently, and am underwhelmed. He's got great hops, adequate creativity, but minimal capacity to take over a game. Lowry carries DeRozan and the rest of the Raptors when the chips are down.
     
  6. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think the Celtics will want Turner back, which I am ambivalent about. He has made strong progress during his time here, and I'm not convinced that the analytics are getting it entirely right with him. His departure will leave a void. They are thin at the 3, and in guys who create their own shot and can run the offense.

    That said, I think it's a no-brainer that he won't be back. There will be crazy money flying around this offseason, the C's do have a few different guys who, with improvement, can fill different parts of his role (Smart, Rozier, Hunter), and no doubt Danny will want to make some changes anyway.

    To stay, I think Turner would need to be willing to accept the kind of steep hometown discount that every agent would strongly advise his client to reject. So he's gone. The interesting question is whether, with his new team, he will maintain some of gains he has made in Boston or revert back to the player he was when he got here.
     
  7. Dan Murfman

    Dan Murfman Member SoSH Member

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    nm
     
    #307 Dan Murfman, Mar 25, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2016
  8. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Does this help?

    OK, probably not. And he certainly could improve his mechanics so I hope he gets a shooting coach over the offseason. But I'm still hoping the pre-ASB stretch (17 for 27) is closer to what he'll eventually be than these last few games (4-29).
     
  9. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Smart entered the league as a wild gunner with awful mechanics, terrible lower body balance, and a horrific shot selection. During the course of last season someone was working with him as his balance greatly improved as did his shot selection. This year he's reverted back to that same college kid.

    Through it all Smart has maintained the long windup which is always going to lead to inconsistent results due to all the motion prior to his release. Couple the wasted motion with the poor balance and you have an inconsistent shooter. Now add poor results, knowing a massive contract is on the line soon, and pressing while maintaining a shooters mentality.......and you have today's Marcus Smart.
     
  10. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Smart has made enough progress with his free throw percentage that I'm still optimistic about his ability to develop actual three point range. Of course, he doesn't go to the line much, so that's not a great sample.
     
  11. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    The big difference I see is that when Smart is stationary or square to the basket he's a fine enough shooter. The mechanical issues occur with his lower body and speed of the windup not being consistent. At the FT line that isn't an issue as those two mechanical problems he has during the course of a play aren't an issue from the line.
     
  12. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    There's a lot of talk on Evan Turners' upcoming free agency in this thread, I'm really interested in what happens with Jared Sullinger this summer. There's so much salary cap space in the league this summer, and not enough talent to go around, that he could end up getting an absurd offer from a desperate team. What's the breaking point on matching an RFA offer for him? I'd guess with all the extra money floating around this summer he gets at least a 4/40 offer from someone. Maybe even more once the talent pool starts drying up. How far do the Celtics go to match? Do they even trust him on a longterm deal with his conditioning issues? I think it's going to end up being a really tough call for Ainge.
     
  13. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    EDIT: I see you've addressed this, but I like the pic.

    Ingram will be as useful as a guy averaging 1 ppg next season? A guy that's scored 29 points all season?

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Klostrophobic

    Klostrophobic lurker

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    Tobias Harris got 4/64 so Sullinger is easily going to get way more than 4/40 in a new-cap era. I don't know why he can't get 4/64. Once he gets paid its over—he's going to 320.
     
  15. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think there's a good chance Sullinger gets maxed. The way the cap is going to work, with a big bump this year, and then another big bump the year after, a max deal should be easy to move if it doesn't work out.
     
  16. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    You answered your own question as to why Sullinger isn't going to get close to 4/$64m. Is there a GM who doesn't expect this to occur after he didn't improve his body entering a contract year?

    There may be a ton of money this summer however there are also a TON of free agents that will get paid before Jared Sullinger.
     
  17. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    If the Celtics re-sign Jared Sullinger, it will be a confession of failure to reel in a real big man. I'm thinking that the Celtics may have to pursue a sign-and-trade for Al Horford, so Al gets his hometown premium, and the Celtics get their rim-protectin, long-distance-shootin, injury-list-destined Horford.

    Returning to the topic, Isaiah 27 is very good (but it helps that the Celtics have no other top-notch creator, and a scrambling defense that covers up for postables like Thomas). Crowder and Bradley, both 25, are good (and their contracts make them very good), Olynyk 24 could be good (if Stevens keeps choosing his matchups well), Johnson is good (when his foot isn't aching), and Sullinger-24yrs-minus-20lbs would be good if he could shed the hips. The Celtics are still facing a talent deficit, which is why I expect Ainge to trade the first BKN pick if the Celtics don't hit the Simmons-Ingram lottery. Smart is a headstrong gunner at 22, but might be very good at 24. This team has a lot of middling players near the peak of their performance. We really need some luck with those pingpong balls.
     
  18. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Eh. He played in 76 games last year and every game so far this season.
     
  19. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Horford is a quality second-tier guy who will be heading down the wrong side of 30 road however when you pair him with Okafor you have a very interesting frontcourt considering opening night was Zeller and Lee this year. This has a decent chance as we could unload a max on Horford while the Okafor deal seems to be to be only waiting for draft night to complete especially if we are able to draft Dunn for Philly.

    Our frontcourt in training camp will look A LOT different than Zeller, Lee, Amir, Olynyk, and Sullinger. There is a good chance only Olynyk is back next year.
     
  20. EL Jeffe

    EL Jeffe Member SoSH Member

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    Don't we have to talk about LeBron at some point? It certainly seems like opting out for free agency is at least in play (I mean, I have to imagine he opts-out either way for the bigger pay day. But there's enough discontent out there to speculate as to whether he opts-out for more money from Cleveland or to move on...again). If (IF, IF, IF) LeBron decides to take his talents elsewhere, wouldn't Boston be on a short list? He seems to respect the coach, which clearly matters to him. There would be pieces around him to make his job easier and assets that can be flipped to make the team a legit contender. Leaving Cleveland a 2nd time would be a HUGE deal, and I'm sure he's aware of that, but he certainly doesn't seem happy.there, does he? Am I crazy or is this something that could legitimately happen?
     
  21. TheRooster

    TheRooster Member SoSH Member

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    Feels crazy. Horford seems quite possible. I actually think Durant is 10-15% possible. LBJ is less than 1%. LA, NY, back to MIA all seem much more likely and that is after the 70% chance that he stays in Cleveland.
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Crazy doesn't even begin to describe it. ;)

    LeBron doesn't want to leave Cleveland.....he is going to opt-out of his present deal and pressure Cleveland to do a Love/Carmelo and Kyrie+/Paul while luring Wade to join as a FA.
     
  23. EL Jeffe

    EL Jeffe Member SoSH Member

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    HRB, Crusher of Dreams.
     
  24. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    LeBron ain't going to F over Cleveland twice.
     
  25. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Is there reason to believe Philly is more amenable to a trade at this point after they allegedly backed out at the deadline? Plus, they still have a greater than 50% chance at drafting outside of the top two, in which case, would they still want our pick when Dunn would be a reasonable selection with their own?
     
  26. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I think I mentioned elsewhere, but I've been told Okafor wasn't the target of the "done, but backed out" deal.
     
  27. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I don't believe that Okafor was the deal that was allegedly backed out of by Philly as that wouldn't make any sense with the unknowns surrounding their pick. You can't get a deal like that done at the deadline with all the uncertainty of the value of the picks being moved.

    Reports from reliable sources were that Ainge was talking with Philly however that appears to be different than the talks that Ainge "leaked."

    I'd buy that leak being Love or Butler.
     
  28. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Based on your post that I quoted, you seem confident that a deal for Okafor will get done- anything in particular that makes you think this?
     
  29. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I posted following the deadline somewhere that I felt the discussions would lead to a draft day deal. I don't mean for it to sound certain or arrogant as translation gets lost on message boards sometimes......this is my opinion. Any discussions with Philly surrounding Okafor couldn't have been anything more than preliminary if it included either teams draft picks value being unknown.

    Aside from adding veteran presence and PG play to the Sixers (his first move was to reacquire Hinkie castoff Ish Smith), Colangelo's most important moves this summer are to provide the Sixers with proper roster balance especially now that Embiid will also be in the mix.

    By all accounts we've heard, Dunn is high on the Sixers radar (confirmed by another source), Ainge has discussed Okafor with Colangelo, and he needs to swap big for small while having both a history of valuing the PG position in Phoenix as well as a previous working relationship with Ainge when he was with the Suns.

    There is a ton of smoke and a deal that makes sense in there somewhere.
     
  30. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    If Okafor is the best we can do, I really hope LAL is bumped to 4 so Philly doesn't feel a need to trade for a third top 5 pick this year.

    Ideally the C's being one of the teams jumping them of course.
     
  31. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    How does Okafor fit what the C's are trying to do? Ainge isn't dumb, but I have a hard time seeing the fit.
     
  32. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    I think it all depends on the ping pong balls. If the Sixers land at 3 or 4, I suspect the take Dunn themselves and shop Okafor around for a scorer. Unless they're really high on Jaylen Brown, I don't see them interested in another non-top 2 lottery pick in this scenario.
     
  33. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    The fit is more on the Philly side. They could enter next year with Dunn, Ingram, Saric, Noel, and Embiid which drastically alters their perimeter talent while still having two young talented bigs.

    I don't get why people are down on the 20-year old Okafor who is forced to play on a team with no spacing, no experience, no roles, with 5 guys running around with their heads cut off. He still possesses the skillset be an elite offensive player while he develops his face up jumper which will then make him fairly lethal.

    I see his warts as well.....not an elite athlete or great rebounder. He never had a chance in this system as a rookie trying to learn the ropes from nobody. I can see why Ainge likes him for the right price as a guy who gives us what Sullinger does some night offensively but being much better at scoring around the basket. He's also on a much cheaper deal over the next 3 years compared to what it would cost for Sullinger.

    I'm not head over heels with him but Bulpett would have to be completely full of shit to make the stand that he did at he deadline when reporting this.
     
  34. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    They need high upside guards. Dunn is ready to step in and start from Day One pushing Ish to the second unit.
     
  35. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    I agree completely, but this doesn't address my point, so I'll ask it more directly- what happens in the likely scenario (53%) that Philly does not get a top 2 pick? If Ingram and Simmons are not on the table, doesn't it make sense for them to just draft Dunn with their own pick?
     
  36. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'll be sad to see Sully go, but even more sad if the C's pay the market rate for him.
     
  37. LondonSox

    LondonSox Robert the Deuce SoSH Member

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    I agree Baker, Okafor has warts, but name a star one year big who came in and was good defensively immediately, his stats on one on one defending esp on the post are good, his rim protection number are not great but not terrible, i'd wager both defensive areas can improve. My larger concern would be rebounding, there is no reason a guy with his size and body shouldn't be boxing his way and just getting hit in the hands enough to have a better rebounding rate than he has.
    Offensively, he's good, his passing will improve, his jumper is much better than expected, driving on a big man he's unfair, and his post up work is stellar of course.
    For the old NBA he's probably good today, on that HORRIBLE team he put up points efficiently (esp later in the season) on high usage. Of course his weaknesses are exactly what people want, and his strengths people are less interested in. If you don't think the NBA has changed forever, the moneyball type undervaluation might be on hsi kind of player.
    You have to believe his rebounding won't/ can't improve and be more negative on his ability to improve defensively for him to as bad a player as people describe him as sometimes.
     
  38. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    You're right that rookie bigs are bad defensively, but Okafor's defense is among the 10 worst by BPM since 1973. Generally, as discussed in the link, if you start bad, it's harder to "catch up."
     
  39. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Sure it does. This is why I'll also revert back to my statement about why an Okafor trade that included any of the Sixer or Nets draft picks was never going to occur at the trade deadline. Once the order is determined it will become much clearer how the Sixers will proceed.
     
  40. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Given what he's done with the current team, it's scary and exciting to think what Stevens could do with upper echelon talent. Hope Danny can reel some in.
     
  41. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    Theres like a 1 percent chance the Cs end up w Horford Durant and Buddy. This thought tightens my pants quite a bit
     
  42. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Horford and Durant is extraordinarily unlikely because they'd need to agree to a combined discount of about $10 million/year. Durant and Whiteside or Durant and Cousins or Horford and Butler, etc. are real options. Even something like Horford and Batum would position this team as a real contender. And, I think the odds are decent that one of Durant or Horford ends up in Boston, but it's not going to be both.
     
  43. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    Either Durant/Whiteside or Horford/Butler along with Hield/Ingram/Simmons would be an amazing off season.
     
  44. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    I find it unlikely, but neither has to take a paycut (unless you just mean the lower raises inherent in signing elsewhere instead of with their current teams). Both are in the 7-9 slot, which assuming a cap of around 92 is 26M each.

    If the Celtics cut or trade the unguaranteed guys they have around $58M in cap space with the following roster: Bradley, Thomas, Crowder, Smart, Olynyk, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey, Young)
    Now that doesn't include cap holds for Sullinger/Zeller (5.6 and 6.5 respectively) or the cap hold for Turner (4.4), cap hold for the picks is around 6 (though if say Bender is the pick he stays in Europe the cap hold drops to 2.5 or so).

    All things considered it wouldn't be that hard for the Celtics to get both financially. If both players wanted to be here there are plenty of ways between trades and releases to get the few million in space open.

    One path might be trading some combination of picks/players for a player who makes less money, and then signing the two. Another might be just a straight salary dump.
     
  45. RetractableRoof

    RetractableRoof Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I tend to agree with you, but the players lately seem to have figured out that they can build their own super teams - by taking a couple million less each or whatever number makes sense. With the endorsement money they make having the Tom Brady mindset of leaving team/cap money on the table to facilitate higher quality teammates isn't that much of a stretch. Unlikely, but just not as impossible as 15 years ago either.
     
  46. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    At this point, don't we have to kind of acknowledge that IT is not only very good but also in the upper echelon of NBA players? Will he win you a championship as the top guy? Probably not – but it sure looks like he can get you to the late playoffs, maybe even the Finals if everything breaks right.

    I admit I wasn't there even just a few months ago, when his All Star bid seemed kind of cute and quixotic. At this point, I'm sort of remembering that even LeBron wasn't capable of getting his team over the top in his prime. This guy is good and fun as hell to watch every night.
     
  47. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    He's good, he's fun, but so far, his playoffs record is being swept 4-0, and that was for a team (by the playoffs) that was roughly the same quality as this year's team. I don't want to downplay him, but he's maybe the 10th best guy at his position? Is he really more than that, even coming off a great road win?
     
  48. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    On a team desperately needing a playmaker, he oozes creativity on offense. His defense has not been the weak spot on a strong team that one might expect for a midget -- think how few times other teams manage to post him up. He fits right into the trapping defense, with quick hands and lateral mobility.

    As long as he avoids injury, he can go far. I'm glad that he is sturdily built and has lots of bounce to the ounce, because he goes horizontal at least six times a game. Still, that kind of resilience doesn't last forever.
     
  49. JohnnyTheBone

    JohnnyTheBone Member SoSH Member

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    To the bolded, Allen Iverson says, "But it can last a damn long time!".

    You make great points about his defense. He's not the liability that you'd think he'd be. This video underscores that point well.



    If you've got the time, that's ten tight minutes right there.
     
  50. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    It's a strong league for PG's right now tho. Also, not sure if last year's performance against the ultimate conference finalists after he was coming back from a late season injury in about the most competitive playoff sweep in history really says that much about IT's ability. They still might lose but does anyone actually think they would get swept by the Cavs this year?

    And I would agree – he's been solid on defense.

    IT may never be the guy a GM would build his team around, per se, but he's not some guy who gives you one limited set of skills that compromises a bunch of other aspects of the team. I do think he's a guy other teams are now looking at him in different light.
     

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