They are going to have a very difficult decision on Olynyk next year. If they sign him or even qualify him, it takes them out of the top free agent market. And, with his skill set, he'll be highly sought after as a FA and will get paid, if not by the Celtics then by another team.
This is the really hard part. They've hidden him so much through the years and he always goes through good spurts where he gets spot minutes against the right matchups but they really have never had to see if he could answer the bell for extended minutes every night regardless of matchup.
That's kinda the catch though, right? With the new structure, is it likely that we're going to be able to land anyone of substance? Odds are that Hayward, Griffin, etc. aren't going to leave tens of millions on the table to switch teams. Big ticket free agents might be off the table for awhile, and it's why I am coming around the idea to someone like Melo (if available for little in the way of assets) since I'm not sure where else the money will go. I think Scal or someone made the point - maybe Brad can convince him to play like he does in the Olympics.
Olynyk didn't shoot for 6 months because of his shoulder injury and it's taken him some time to get his shot back. He's been shooting better in recent weeks and hopefully this keeps up.
He did his typical 5 week stretch where everyone fawns over him then regresses right back to his usual hideous to watch mediocre self.
I think that's kind of harsh but he is what he is. A 7 footer who can give you 20-25 minutes off the bench, stretch the floor and play passable D. I'm not so sure that's worth 4/60 or whatever he's going to get from some teams though. At least not for the Celtics. He would definitely need to be replaced. His problem over the last 5 games is a problem he's had throughout his career. He picks up so many fouls. The last 5 games he's averaged 16 minutes and 4 personal fouls and over the month of February was at 21.5 and 3.5.
Its the aesthetics more than the production. Its just a hideous style of ball to watch. Lack of coordination, the flailing, i mean does anyone have a worse .gif not top 10 reel in the nba than KO? Couple that w his issues on both ends that get exposed when hes not in the ideal matchup and i personally cant wait for him to be a Net next year.
This may be an overreaction but I'm ready to move on here. Want no part of whatever contract he's going to get. This frontcourt needs to get more athletic.
Nope. I stand by my previous statements about KO. He has a good 4-6 week run of good play that tricks everyone. Hes not good at basketball.
This is strong analysis. So you think there's nothing useful about a 7 footer who stretches the floor?
Pretty much. For a guy his size, he's really not very strong. Monroe and Howard (to use two examples) pushed him around freely in the post. It's a bigger problem when he's paired with someone other than Horford, especially Jerebko.
When they shoot 36% from 3 (fine but lets not pretend this is outstanding by any means) and offer nothing on the interior on either end of the floor youre no longer a stretch big. Youre a slow 2.
Do you have numbers that suggest he offers nothing on the defensive end? Because the ones I see suggest otherwise.
Youre not a 5 when you get pushed around like KO does on both ends of the floor in the interior. You are a slow 2. Its great to happen to be 7 feet tall and hit a cpl 3s, but when you offer 0 rim protection or defensive rebounding you dont get to be labeled a stretch big.
Actually, I think the decision is going to be fairly easy, in the sense that the FA market (or lack thereof) will dictate what Danny does with KO. Either renouncing KO is the price we must pay to sign a max-money FA, or we're looking at throwing a bloated contract at someone else's flawed player (the holds for IT/AB/Smart will put us over the cap in the 2018 offseason regardless, so rolling the cap space forward isn't an option).
I think this is right. Ainge & co. need to set a 'price' for their perception of KO's market value... and just hold to it. If theFA market develops such that KO is getting a contract over that price, be prepared to move on. He's nice to have on the team, but he has not emerged as part of the future core - IT, Smart, AB, Brown, Crowder, Horford, 2017 BKN pick. Hell, Zizic could take KO's roster spot/place in the rotation next year and will certainly be much more affordable..
Actually, I was making a different argument. The C's need to renounce KO to sign a max-money guy like Hayward -- and if they're able to sign such a player, dumping KO is a no-brainer. If that isn't an option, however, overpaying KO is better than doing nothing or overpaying someone else's free agent. They can't roll the unused cap space forward to 2018, and at least KO has some underrated strengths and fits well with the C's system, which is likely more than you'll be able to say for someone else's RFA or an older UFA.
This makes sense, better to overpay for Kelly, if he'll sign for less than starter money, than a complete unknown. The management values spacing at a greater amount than rebounding, I think that is clear by now. If starter money is 15 - 18 million, I think we are jumping the gun thinking Kelly will command 20M. Maybe from a needy team like the Nets, but no chance Danny or a contending team ties that much up with him.
That's really all he is though -- what he can do is be tall and hit wide open threes. Everything else is embarrassing.
His defense is sneaky-good -- not all-league by any means, but a tick better than average.
He's tall, but with short arms, terrible length, and a slow release. Which is why his 3FG% isn't terribly impressive. I really wish that the T'wolves had been as intrigued with the Greek Freak as a lot people here were, because Boston would be a contender today.
It is absolutely absurd to say that "nothing Olynyk does on the basketball court is useful." You can argue that the sum of what he does is average or slightly below average -- I'm inclined to agree with that, in fact. But Olynyk does multiple things well, and those things have value.
Again, this summer is likely to be the last time for a while that the C's will be under the cap. If they can get a Horford-level (or better) player, then of course they should do that, which means renouncing KO. Failing that, however, I'm not sure what you would have them do. Are you more concerned about Wyc Grousbeck's cash flow than he is, or do you think there's likely to be someone better than KO available? If the latter, I'm curious who you have in mind -- my guess is that teams with RFAs who could crack the C's rotation will be matching offers.
This doesn't tell the whole story of course, since volume matters as much as %, but it's not like there's some dramatic shift in %s going on.
The takeaway is that 35-36% is a more than acceptable 3-point shooting percentage. A 7-footer who is an acceptable 3-point shooter and also plays modestly above-average defense isn't a star, but easily clears the bar for "useful rotation player on a good team."
I think there's also a lack of understanding of the NBA's business side. In MLB and the NFL, overpaying role players is the hallmark of a poorly run front office. In the NBA, however, overpaying a role player is often a club's best move, assuming ownership is willing to spend well over the salary cap, because the money that's spent extending one's own role player often can't be spent a year or two later on a better free agent the way it can be in baseball or football.
