David Price's Problem
- Thread starter Darnell's Son
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Which was worse: Josh Beckett in 2006 or David Price in 2016? The former gave up gopher balls like it was his job while the latter seems to lose concentration or focus in one inning and temporarily become Frank Castillo's lefthanded brother from another mother. Maddening.
Beckett, easily. Price at least has a positive ERA+ and is leading the league in innings pitched, and just cost money. Beckett's struggles had the added nutpunch of Hanley 2006 quickly establishing himself as a young superstar, and Sanchez pitching quite well down the stretch. We have the benefit of hindsight with Beckett, and the memory of 2007, while Price still has a chance to redeem himself.
I'm curious what the real cost of Beckett was when factoring his salary and the value they could have gotten in the pre-FA years of Hanley and Anibal, and how it could potentially compare to Price. Fangraphs has Hanley's pre-FA years as being worth $174MM, while only costing $24.7MM, while Beckett was paid $61MM to give the team $120MM in value.
I'm curious what the real cost of Beckett was when factoring his salary and the value they could have gotten in the pre-FA years of Hanley and Anibal, and how it could potentially compare to Price. Fangraphs has Hanley's pre-FA years as being worth $174MM, while only costing $24.7MM, while Beckett was paid $61MM to give the team $120MM in value.
It seems to me that if you're going to assert that someone's ERA is more reflective of how they have actually pitched than their FIP, especially on this site, you should provide some evidence other than, "I can just tell by looking, isn't it obvious?"
To really measure consistency compared to other pitchers, shouldn't part of the case be an analysis of the distribution of runs given up (as a percentage of pitcher's ERA) vs. the league average be appropriate.
Price's xFIP is considerably better than his ERA, and so you would expect to see improvement in his ERA in the second half. Price's BABIP is higher than normal and so you would expect his BABIP to regress to the mean. HOWEVER, Price is giving up more hard contact and line drives than usual and this could explain his higher-than-normal BABIP.
The million dollar question: why is Price giving up more hard contact and line drives than usual? Is he taking a different approach in terms of pitch selection? Is Price experiencing a decline in his overall stuff? There are many possible explanations, some more ominous than others.
Based on the higher than usual LD% and hard contact %, I don't think we are looking at a stretch of bad luck for Price--something else is going on.
The million dollar question: why is Price giving up more hard contact and line drives than usual? Is he taking a different approach in terms of pitch selection? Is Price experiencing a decline in his overall stuff? There are many possible explanations, some more ominous than others.
Based on the higher than usual LD% and hard contact %, I don't think we are looking at a stretch of bad luck for Price--something else is going on.
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Seriously? 2006 Becket had issues, but per the "real cost" of Beckett, players are not infinitely fungible, e.g., "superstar" Hanley couldn't have done this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200710030.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200710120.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE200710180.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200710240.shtml
And I think we got some guy named "Lowell" also, who, like, did some stuff.
Nothing. You were the one who brought up the "real cost" of Beckett. So go ahead and WAR/$ away, as if the trade was Beckett/Hanley/Sanchez, only lasted for a year, and/or as if there were no real world consequences.
I agree.
But I did take two things from the article:
1. Unlike clutch hitting, clutch pitching is almost certainly a real skill. If it's true that Price has surrendered more big innings this season than an average pitcher with his YTD numbers (I'm guessing Cuz did this analysis and chose not to bore his audience with the details), then that suggests that Price's ability to "find another gear" to get a critical out has slipped.
2. If Price has truly been undone by bad innings to a greater extent than most pitchers, then his workload is a concern. There's little settled science in terms of pitcher injuries, but I think it's generally accepted that the number pitches thrown when tired is a more relevant metric than total pitches thrown, and that throwing 100 pitches over 5 innings takes a bigger toll than throwing 100 over 7, mainly because the former almost certainly includes a 25+ inning or two. Cuz's article suggests Price has had more than his share of those grueling innings this season.
What does my digression have to do with the actual discussion? It was 2006 Beckett vs. 2016 Price. I apologize for getting off topic slightly, but I raised 2007 in the first place because it seems to be clouding people's view of 2006 Beckett vs. 2016 Price. I thought it was clear that the total value was another thought in another paragraph, but clearly it's doing nothing but further obfuscating things.
Price grooves a lot of pitches.
It helps that Longoria is out there all by his lonesome on the 2016 Rays.
Price is evolving later in the season, ditching the four-seam fastball almost entirely, and relying on a mix of 2-seamer, changeup and cutter to keep the batter guessing.
It helps that Longoria is out there all by his lonesome on the 2016 Rays.
Price is evolving later in the season, ditching the four-seam fastball almost entirely, and relying on a mix of 2-seamer, changeup and cutter to keep the batter guessing.
Iayork tells us that Price grooving pitches is nothing new.
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/majorleaguebaseball/al-east/boston-red-sox/are-david-prices-pitches-the-problem/
Price has had a strange season to say the least.
First seven starts were very up and down - four bad ones, three good ones.
Then a stretch of eight straight starts that were all solid or excellent.
Then a stretch of nine straight starts that were again up and down, but some pretty bad ones in there.
And then now he's on a really nice run of six straight excellent starts.
But now he's up to a 15-8 record, with a 3.87 era. He keeps going like this and he's going to finish with 18 or 19 wins and an era in the mid-3's. Still not quite what we were expecting, but this is much, much more like it.
EDIT: Just to put some numbers to these four stretches....
First 7 starts: 41.1 ip, 6.75 era, 1.38 whip
Next 8 starts: 58.1 ip, 2.47 era, 0.94 whip
Next 9 starts: 56.0 ip, 4.50 era, 1.55 whip
Last 6 starts: 42.0 ip, 2.14 era, 0.93 whip
First seven starts were very up and down - four bad ones, three good ones.
Then a stretch of eight straight starts that were all solid or excellent.
Then a stretch of nine straight starts that were again up and down, but some pretty bad ones in there.
And then now he's on a really nice run of six straight excellent starts.
But now he's up to a 15-8 record, with a 3.87 era. He keeps going like this and he's going to finish with 18 or 19 wins and an era in the mid-3's. Still not quite what we were expecting, but this is much, much more like it.
EDIT: Just to put some numbers to these four stretches....
First 7 starts: 41.1 ip, 6.75 era, 1.38 whip
Next 8 starts: 58.1 ip, 2.47 era, 0.94 whip
Next 9 starts: 56.0 ip, 4.50 era, 1.55 whip
Last 6 starts: 42.0 ip, 2.14 era, 0.93 whip
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The second-to-last 9 Starts slice, despite being the largest sample, gets really distorted by the 6/24 disaster where he couldn't get out of the 2nd. Remove just that one start from his season (zomg cherry-picking!!!!1!) and your slices look like:
First 7 starts: 41.1 ip, 6.75 era, 1.38 whip (45/12)
Next 8 starts: 58.1 ip, 2.47 era, 0.94 whip (43/12)
Next 9 starts: 54.0 ip, 3.69 era, 1.39 whip (63/12)
Last 6 starts: 42.0 ip, 2.14 era, 0.93 whip (31/8)
Which looks a little less like a roller coaster, and more like a bad slow start and some variance. The numbers in parens are the Hit and Walk components of each slice's WHIP. BABIP has been the been driver of his peaks and valleys since he bottomed out in the first week of May.
This is interesting. What remains irreducibly weird about his season is that his worst period in ERA terms was some of his best pitching in DIPS terms.
First 7: 6.75 ERA, 3.01 FIP, .383 BABIP.
Next 8: 2.47 ERA, 3.91 FIP, .233 BABIP.
Next 9: 3.69 ERA, 3.28 FIP, .393 BABIP.
Last 6: 2.14 ERA, 2.96 FIP, .250 BABIP.
Those high BABIPs are absurd, though I wouldn't attribute them completely to bad luck. When he was pitching poorly, he was catching way too much of the plate which kind of breaks FIP in the short term. He is locating way better lately than he has all season. The low BABIP seems consistent with how he is painting the black so much. His command is a joy to watch when it's on.
The 3.91 FIP in the first 'good' performance slice comes from giving up 9 HR in that stretch. He had some mid-June gopheritis but otherwise the full-season HR/9 trend seems fairly stable. WTF was happening to him in those first seven games is fairly inexplicable by the numbers.
If "an era in the mid-3's" is "not quite what we were expecting", then we were expecting too much, because that is (a) excellent, and (b) only a little worse than his career average (3.18). And a little worse than career average is what a rational optimist expects from a 30-year-old pitcher.
EDIT: And ERA is a crude yardstick here, since MLB-wide offense is up a quarter of a run per game this year and he's moved into a better hitters' park. ERA- is a better choice. He's already just a little worse than career average in that department (86 to 80), and a strong finish could close that gap -- which, for a 30-year-old, would put the Sox in the bonus round.
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I see your point. His career era+ is 125 (it was at 126 before this year). He's currently at 119. So maybe he could get his era+ up to, say, 122 by year's end, which would be very close to his career number.
I don't put any stock in him being 30, however. That should still be in his prime, and so even if he finishes with an era+ of 122, it's lower than I hoped/expected it to be. Though well within acceptable range.
119 would be entirely in line with the shape of his career so far. He's always had little peaks and valleys while still being a good pitcher. Looks at his ERA+ numbers since becoming a full-time starter:
98, 144, 108, 150, 115, 115, 164, 119
Expecting to consistently be a 150 ERA+ pitcher doesn't match with his career history. He's durable and will eat innings and strike out a bunch of guys and pitch well, but the magnitude of how well he pitches has varied and can be expected to vary going forward.
I am utterly flummoxed by this guy. He's long had a rep of being a poor postseason pitcher and today certainly validates that assessment.
He's a very, very good regular season pitcher: career 124 ERA+. That's valuable to any team. He's a horse, he pitches deep into games, he eats innings, he Ks a ton of hitters, he'll battle through games (many times this year he's given up some runs early and then you look up and he's gone 7 IP, 3 R and gotten the win).
But he simply can't pitch in the postseason. We're up to about 70 IP in that sample size and he's only had 1 decent postseason start (against TEX a few years ago, but he lost the game anyway). All his other postseason starts have been disasters. I have no idea why he can't pitch in the playoffs, but the phenomenon is real. And I have absolutely no idea why that should be.
He's a very, very good regular season pitcher: career 124 ERA+. That's valuable to any team. He's a horse, he pitches deep into games, he eats innings, he Ks a ton of hitters, he'll battle through games (many times this year he's given up some runs early and then you look up and he's gone 7 IP, 3 R and gotten the win).
But he simply can't pitch in the postseason. We're up to about 70 IP in that sample size and he's only had 1 decent postseason start (against TEX a few years ago, but he lost the game anyway). All his other postseason starts have been disasters. I have no idea why he can't pitch in the playoffs, but the phenomenon is real. And I have absolutely no idea why that should be.
sadly, "he gets so amped/nervous in the playoffs he can't execute enough to pitch well" is becoming more and more a true hypothesis.
some guys just can't do it, I guess.
some guys just can't do it, I guess.
It's not all that different from Kershaw, who wasn't terrible tonight, but pretty mediocre.
The weird thing about Price's numbers is that his post-season WHIP is 1.17. His regular season WHIP is 1.14. I don't know what that means--he's pitching worse with guys on base? he's giving up more extra base hits? But it's sort of interesting, at least to me.
The weird thing about Price's numbers is that his post-season WHIP is 1.17. His regular season WHIP is 1.14. I don't know what that means--he's pitching worse with guys on base? he's giving up more extra base hits? But it's sort of interesting, at least to me.
5 2/3 innings at 1.06. Not enough to change it dramatically.
2015, for example, 23 1/3 innings, 6.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. 4 Homers, so that's definitely part of it.
2015, for example, 23 1/3 innings, 6.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. 4 Homers, so that's definitely part of it.
The highest paid player on the team needs to and should set the tone. Sadly, that is not at all what has happened
Sadly, it kind of is (though he's more falling in line than setting the tone). Let's hope for a new tune in Game 3!
I think he's just cursed. His six hits allowed today included two infield hits and a blooper that fell just beyond the infield. And I'm pretty sure the home run would have been a double in most ballparks. So on an ordinary day, his performance would have been good enough for 4 IP and maybe 1 or 2 ER, and then he wouldn't have been pulled so quickly.
Sometimes you just throw up your hands and say "That's baseball".
Sometimes you just throw up your hands and say "That's baseball".
Had a bit of bad luck tonight, thats true. Some well hit balls too. Last 61 IP post season, 41 runs. 9 post season starts w/o a win. Cant be all bad luck.
Also, his miserable performance against the Yankees when wearing a Red Sox uniform, after dominating them last year with the Jays. Whats up with that. Obviously, Yankees are a bigger deal with the Red Sox. See the pattern here?
He says in the locker room media conference that that Chis HR was a good pitch.
Needs to start taking responsibility. Make BETTER pitches.
9 starts is approaching MSS. medium sample size.
Needs to start taking responsibility. Make BETTER pitches.
9 starts is approaching MSS. medium sample size.
He only cost $72 million more than their final offer to John Lester.
What more could you ask for?
What more could you ask for?
Some players thrive under pressure - Ortiz, Bumgarner, Rivera etc. Others don't deal with it as well - Price and Kershaw are obvious examples.
His struggles are well documented, everyone knows he's been a disaster. It's all in his head you can see it, he's a nervous wreck out there. He's not able to block it out and just let his natural ability take over. The ability is certainly there, he's been one of the best starters in the AL the past seven years.
Boston's a tough place to try and fight through these kind of struggles. The fans are pissed off and think he's grossly overpaid. If he takes another postseason dump this year, or next, I wonder if they try to trade him.
His struggles are well documented, everyone knows he's been a disaster. It's all in his head you can see it, he's a nervous wreck out there. He's not able to block it out and just let his natural ability take over. The ability is certainly there, he's been one of the best starters in the AL the past seven years.
Boston's a tough place to try and fight through these kind of struggles. The fans are pissed off and think he's grossly overpaid. If he takes another postseason dump this year, or next, I wonder if they try to trade him.
Someone who wilts under pressure like Price does should be playing in San Diego.
Not that I'm saying he pitched well, but you do realize that good pitches can be turned into hits and even home runs, right?
Am I the only one who saw Pedro's comments after the game on TBS?
#45 says that the Cleveland hitters know Price is going to be around the plate and are comfortable digging in to tee off on his stuff. Price should be "moving them off the plate" and "changing their eye level" by letting a few pitches get up and in.
If I remember correctly, this was how Pedro approached Mr. Matsui Game 5 of the ALCS. The look on his face when he dusted himself up and made eye contact with Pedro was priceless.
#45 says that the Cleveland hitters know Price is going to be around the plate and are comfortable digging in to tee off on his stuff. Price should be "moving them off the plate" and "changing their eye level" by letting a few pitches get up and in.
If I remember correctly, this was how Pedro approached Mr. Matsui Game 5 of the ALCS. The look on his face when he dusted himself up and made eye contact with Pedro was priceless.
Let's not forget that the losing streak that wiped out home field all started with Price's start at the terlet. He is so easy to dislike. Almost like the MFY fans and ARod - they generally disassociate themselves from ARod, but he did win them a title in 2009. Hopefully Price can one day do the same.
I think everyone realizes this. The issue is that Price needs to be more accountable. When you make $30 mill/yr, fans want results. No one wants to hear that it was a good pitch, even if it was.
I heard on NESN this morning that while Chisenhall has numbers against all lefties at a little above .100, he has hit David Price at above .300, which is why, in addition to his defense, he was in the lineup.
