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Dave Dombrowski knows more than you do

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by The Gray Eagle, Oct 29, 2018.

  1. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Why mention Margot and not mention Moncada?

    I just read the other guys write up and that's pretty harsh. Moncada has had just as much success as Margot and far more potential.
     
  2. JohntheBaptist

    JohntheBaptist Member SoSH Member

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    He had a big 2B and RBI in a game won by one run in Game 4 of the LDS against NY, the clinching game.
    He was 2-4 with a 2B and a run scored in the clinching game five against HOU.
    He went 1-3 with an RBI in a 4-2 win in Game 2 of the WS.

    All while playing excellent defense.
     
  3. aminahyaquin

    aminahyaquin Member SoSH Member

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    Well , you know, Big D hired Alex Cora. And I have decided that soon when I buy a really nice customized Red Sox top of the line jersey it is going to be number 20. As far as I am concerned, this was the year of a brilliant manager who developed a team that never quit , cohered as a relentless unit, and made us all proud. Cora has the best of Old School and New School B-Ball savvy and coaching brilliance, and I think Dave landed him. SO , a thrilling season and hopefully many more. We have the chance to be contenders and repeat champions over the next decade if we keep Captin Eo and the backbone of this squad stays healthy and hungry.
     
  4. sean1562

    sean1562 Member SoSH Member

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    Fair enough, IDK why I have this Moncada "bust" label in my mind. I guess Margot's floor is lower since he can play a good CF. Moncada could very well take a step forward and be a Baez type player. Just really needs to improve defensively.
     
  5. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    You mean his floor is higher.
     
  6. DanoooME

    DanoooME Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Come on, we all know the real reason is it's for Kevin Youkilis.
     
  7. patoaflac

    patoaflac Member SoSH Member

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    Oh, I thought the reality was he admired Pat Mahomes.
     
  8. oumbi

    oumbi Member SoSH Member

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    Yes, with 21 errors Moncada lead the league for second baseman. He also lead the league for everyone in strikeouts with 217. He has ability and potential, but he also has a few hurdles to clear.
     
  9. aminahyaquin

    aminahyaquin Member SoSH Member

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    Yes he diid and I agree with you, he was clutch at multiple pivotal moments in key games ~ it was great and hope his slump is a memory now
     
  10. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    I'm sure most of this board has seen this report on Moncada potentially changing positions in 2019. Making room for Nick Madrigal is the primary reason, but it'd be a pretty substantial hit to his overall value. If he moves any further and ends up playing a corner outfield spot by his arb years (which is not being discussed at the moment), that's a much different prospect than we talked about at the time.

    Between Moncada moving two rungs down the defensive spectrum and Kopech losing a year and a half to injury (which is obviously unfortunate and I don't mean to make light of it), the Sale trade has moved from being a slight-but-necessary overpay on DD's part to a pretty solid "win" — to me, anyway.

    Espinoza, Moncada, Kopech and Margot were all Top 20 prospects, and have all disappointed somewhat. A lot of luck has gone into that outcome, but some scouting too. I wonder if Dave has been almost too good.
     
  11. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure it's that simple because the move didn't hurt Mookie Betts. A move from SS to 3b would benefit Manny Machado. If Moncada is a good RF and a bad 2b, the move is a positive. I think both Margot and Moncada will be above average players.

    Also, TINSTAPP. Logan Allen might be the best pitcher we traded away and he was just a throw in.
     
  12. Adrian's Dome

    Adrian's Dome Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think it's "luck" at all that DD traded away the blocked or incomplete/flawed prospects and kept Benintendi, Betts, and Devers. Moncada has always been iffy defensively and had contact issues, his prospect status was more from his potential than the actual results. Espinoza was way too damn young and undeveloped to project in any way, and Margot was a fringe (maybe average or slightly above, if you want to squabble) ML talent completely blocked by JBJ. You may be able to make an argument on Kopech, but given the volatility of pitchers and it being Chris freaking Sale, you still make that move ten times out of ten.
     
  13. staz

    staz Intangible Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Agree that all the right moves has DD's signature at the bottom of each page, but I suspect Tony La Russa gets a big time assist here - advising the coaches, mentoring Cora, even if he's just another sound baseball mind in the FO, I have to believe he's been a positive influence. In well-run organizations, good executives surround themselves with skilled people and value their input. In well-run organizations, good decision are rarely the work of one.
     
  14. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    We might have considered him a throw in, but the GM's might not have thought of him that way.
     
  15. chawson

    chawson Well-Known Member Bronze Supporter

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    It is bad luck for Kopech and Espinoza that they needed TJS. Relevantly, it is good luck that Sale has not needed surgery of any kind.
     
  16. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    Can you imagine how different this year would have been with Moncada and Devers playing the same infield in a fierce competition for most errors (and also no Sale)? Yikes. Thank you DD!
     
  17. richgedman'sghost

    richgedman'sghost Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Lars Anderson was traded for Steven Wright who in retrospect despite his injuries has proven to be a pretty good pick up.
     
  18. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    That was a Cherington move, for what it's worth.
     
  19. richgedman'sghost

    richgedman'sghost Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah I was responding to a post that said that Cherington was a prospect hoarder who wasted the value of Lars Anderson by not trading him sooner. I thought I had quoted the post.
     
  20. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Fair enough. Though I think the blame for "wasting" Anderson's value really falls to Theo more than Cherington. The Anderson/Wright trade was at the deadline in 2012, Cherington's first year at the helm. He got what he could for him, which as you point out turned into more than nothing. But Anderson's value cratered way before Cherington was in charge, considering he'd already been passed over by Rizzo as the jewel of the Gonzalez trade package back in December 2010.
     
  21. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    It also made sense to hold on to Lars Anderson after his 2007 and 2008 seasons. He looked special. Too bad his value cratered really fast in 2009. He went from a top 20 prospect to barely a top 100 prospect.
     
  22. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I wonder how often this happens, especially when you move past the top 3-5. Prospects seem like stock options: If you can cash them in at the right time, you can make out big; but if you wait too long, you can get left with nothing.
     
  23. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Generally speaking, hitters are more successful than pitchers and about 40-45% of prospects in the top 10 have successful careers and about 35-40% of prospects ranked 11-20 do. At least depending on what you read.

    Here is a list of Sox prospects who cracked Baseball America's top 20 list since 1990. Pitchers in Italics. Keep in mind these list were made in preseason.
    1991: Mo Vaughn 10th, Jeff McNeely 20th
    1992: Frankie Rodriguez 9th
    1994: Trot Nixon 13th
    1997: Nomar Garciaparra 10th, Carl Pavano 17th
    2003: Hanley Ramirez 19th
    2005: Hanley Ramirez 10th
    2006: Andy Marte 6th
    2008: Clay Buchholz 4th, Jacoby Ellsbury 13th
    2009: Lars Anderson 19th
    2013: Xander Bogaerts 8th
    2014: Xander Bogaerts 2nd
    2015: Blake Swihart 17th
    2016: Yoan Moncada 3, Andrew Benintendi 15, Rafael Devers 18, Anderson Espinoza 19th
    2017: Benintendi 1, Moncada 2, Devers 18

    Betts was top 10 in many unofficial midseason lists but was never top 50 in any official lists due to timing. Kopech and Margot were traded away before making the top 20. Devers made some top 10 lists from other publications too.

    So the Sox success rate on top 10 hitting prospects is 5/6 and for top 20 is 10/14. This assumes Moncada, Devers are successful and Siwhart isn't.

    A list of other players who were in the top 30 (31):
    Rusney Castillo 21
    Jackie Bradley Jr 31
    Casey Kelly 24
    Ryan Westmoreland 21 :(
    Lester 22
    Stenson 22 :(
    Sadler 28
     
    #73 bosox79, Nov 13, 2018
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  24. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I think that list would be a huge point in favor of keeping Lars Anderson.
     
  25. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Straw Man

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    And why this happens. By *this* I mean a top prospect falling off a cliff ability-wise with no injury. Seems to happen regularly in baseball, but hardly ever in football or basketball. Sure, tons of football and basketball prospects (say, top 100) don’t become stars, but do many of them totally wash out for non-injury or bad-behavior reasons?
     
  26. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    In basketball, yes. But in basketball, there probably aren't 100 prospects anyway. The draft is only 2 rounds as is.
     
  27. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    If you limit it to purely Sox prospects sure. Are the %’s you’re citing across the whole league? That seems high to me. There’s obviously a 20/20 hindsight to the whole thing but frankly I feel Theo missed the boat on Lars, considering roster composition at the time.
     
  28. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    They are across the whole league. There are a lot of guys on the list 2-3 times too though.

    edit: what one considers a success plays a part into the percentages too.
     
  29. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Here's a 5 year period from 2000-2004. If you check the top 20 lists, the percentages seem pretty accurate... if not too low.

    2000
    2001
    2002
    2003
    2004
     
  30. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Just curious when you thought Theo should have pulled the trigger? Not a specific deal, but a time-frame. I only ask because Ortiz's wrist injury in 2008 and then his slow starts in 2009 and 2010 may have played a role in Theo wanting to hang on Anderson. Even with the poor year he had in 2009, Anderson and his potential probably still represented the best plan B if Ortiz never recovered (fortunately he did).
     
  31. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    17,599
    Good question and I guess I’d have to say I may be biased because I don’t think you save a chip like that to bring up as a DH or hold as a contingency for Youk.
     
  32. theapportioner

    theapportioner Member SoSH Member

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    Thought experiment also depends on who they could have traded for at peak Lars value, and if you want to stretch it further, any subsequent moves and non moves would have made a difference between the 2007 and 2013 championships. I suppose if they traded Anderson between 2008-9 and got the right pieces back they could have made another WS push in 09. After that, Sox were not doing so well and it probably wouldn't have made a difference at least from a WS win standpoint, at least IMO.
     
  33. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Named as Baseball America's Executive Of The Year
     
  34. Pozo the Clown

    Pozo the Clown lurker

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    Well deserved!
     
  35. Al Zarilla

    Al Zarilla Member SoSH Member

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    108 wins and a world series win should result in this. Cora is saying uh, OK.
     
  36. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    Well... ok.

    DD correctly targeted and then successfully waited out JDM, but the fit was pretty obvious, ownership gave him the necessary resources, and he benefitted from an unusually stingy market with few competitors. He reupped Moreland and Nunez on relatively team-friendly deals, although more than a few here griped that he gave Mitch 2 years with so many 1B available.

    In season, he cut bait rather decisively with Hanley, which took guts but also the fiscal wherewithal. It's not like he snookered some team into trading for Hanley and then used the freed up money for a replacement. And the plan wasn't to just go with in-house replacements, the only option that would have existed for many teams. No, DD accepted the sunk cost knowing he would take on even more salary.

    Nevertheless, IMO, his best work was in who he targeted and got for mid-season upgrades. Moving quickly to get Pearce proved particularly astute. Getting Eo as the only pitching upgrade, when many if not most people were screaming for BP help, was advanced GMing. Both guys were great fits and inexpensive in prospect and payroll costs.

    Is that all enough to win GM of the year? I guess, along with the ending, of course. But we have to acknowledge that DD was playing with far greater available resources and flexibility than just about all other GMs this season. Makes it kind of an apples-to-oranges competition.
     
  37. SydneySox

    SydneySox A dash of cool to add the heat SoSH Member

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    Your post contains a lot of 'buts' that incorrectly, I believe, insinuate DD himself had no influence in those areas. For instance, it was Dombrowski who read the market and negotiated the resources from ownership, and he's the one who waited out JDM.
     
  38. chrisfont9

    chrisfont9 Member SoSH Member

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    The relievers thing is interesting. I can't find anything too definitive but Dombrowski was hinting back in July that they looked into plenty of possibilities, and obviously any decent GM kicks lots of tires. My suspicion is that they probably did try to trade for some relievers and were rebuffed or outbid. Who knows. But I doubt Dombro went in with a plan of nabbing Eovaldi and calling it good, assuming that the existing guys would get hot in October.

    That said, he clearly had enough confidence to go with the guys he had and not make any panic deals. And they do appear to have targeted Eovaldi, albeit as a swingman (or so they said at the time), so for that alone plus his offseason stuff he deserves plenty of credit. Plus the Pearce signing. Dombrowski got very lucky along the way, but clearly knew what he was doing too. Chapeau to him.
     
  39. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Ha, what flexibility did he have? He wasn’t handed a blank checkbook and a loaded farm system to go out and reload. They allowed him to cross the barrier but that doesn’t mean they said he could go as far as he wanted and he didn’t have the chips to do so anyway. Jesus man, you’re really going to try to de strays the job he did? Theo, Friedman, Cashman, etc were otherwise not able to play on his field. Come on dude.
     
  40. Ale Xander

    Ale Xander Member SoSH Member

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    2nd time he's won this. The last time he won it, the Red Sox won the World Series the following year! :redwine:
     

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