Craig Breslow

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

That was some serious leverage last night.  Mostly I'm just surprised there isn't more discussion of him on the main board here and hope to generate some.  He came into the season, in my eyes, as a low man on the totem pole of the bullpen and has risen to take the hi-lev 8th inning.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Yeah, he looks like he's doing it with mirrors a lot of the time. He gets the job done, and I'm glad we have him, but there's nothing about him that makes you feel like the game is in hand when he's on the mound. It's "how will he survive this time?" But he usually does.

 

[ctsoxfan5]

Breslow has been phenomenal, but he's been really lucky. His peripherals, apart from a low HR rate, are mediocre. 2.8 BB, 4.9 K, and 0.5 HR / 9 doesn't usually result in an ERA under 2. He's got a .253 BABIP, and thus a 4.4 xFIP. 
 
His K rate is down from 8.7 last year, while his GB % is the same. LD % the same. 
 
He's throwing the cutter a lot less, and the fastball a lot more.

 
It's interesting, and I'm curious what others here think: his ERA has been lower than his xFIP for the past six straight seasons (and was in the two years before that too, though he didn't throw many IP).  He doesn't have a great GB%, but he doesn't give up many HRs, as his HR/FB is usually pretty low.  
 
Over the last three years in particular, his HR/9 is 0.60 and his HR/FB is 6.1% (that HR/FB% is 15th best among all relievers in that '11-'13 period).  Is this a skill?  Is it luck?  It's over his last 178.1 IP.  Is it a SSS issue?
 
Actually, going back to '08-'13, if you look at all relievers who have thrown 200 IP, he has the tenth lowest HR/FB%.  (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a).
 
If you change it to a minimum 300 IP cutoff, he's 4th best over that six year period. (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a)  
 
What's going on there?  

 

[TomRicardo]

 
It's interesting, and I'm curious what others here think: his ERA has been lower than his xFIP for the past six straight seasons (and was in the two years before that too, though he didn't throw many IP).  He doesn't have a great GB%, but he doesn't give up many HRs, as his HR/FB is usually pretty low.  
 
Over the last three years in particular, his HR/9 is 0.60 and his HR/FB is 6.1% (that HR/FB% is 15th best among all relievers in that '11-'13 period).  Is this a skill?  Is it luck?  It's over his last 178.1 IP.  Is it a SSS issue?
 
Actually, going back to '08-'13, if you look at all relievers who have thrown 200 IP, he has the tenth lowest HR/FB%.  (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a).
 
If you change it to a minimum 300 IP cutoff, he's 4th best over that six year period. (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=300&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,a)  
 
What's going on there?  

 
Well Breslow is the only LHP in the top ten on the list with minimum of 300 IP.
 
He has moved to using the two seam fastball as his primary pitch this season.  :Last year he threw it 10% of the time and before that less than 3% of the time. 
 
He throws four pitches with some frequency (Two Seam, Four Seam, Slider, and Change Up) he also throws the occasional cutter.  He has a bit more pitch diversity than your typical reliever.  He also is not used as LOOGY as much other LHRP with this kind of success and is fairly even on his success to RHH and LHH.
 
Breslow is an outlier.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Looking at his player card on brooksbaseball.net you can see that he's relying on the two seam and the cutter more than he has in the past. He really didn't start throwing the 2 seam until 2011, and then it was only 10% of the time.
His use of the 4 seam has gone down each year from 2011 when he threw it 69%, 2012 35% and this year 25%. His use of the 2 seam and the cutter has risen during the same seasons. 2011 - 2 seam 10% and cutter 23%. 2012 - 2 seam 19% and cutter 33%. 2013 - 2 seam 37% and cutter 25%.
 
And his GB% is about the same as last year. 2012 45% and 2013 44.7%. Same with his FB%. 2012 35.7% and 2013 34.1%.  
 
The GB/FB data is from Fangraphs.
 
The other three posts went up while I was typing this up.

 

[Sprowl]

In ALCS game 4, Breslow faced 6 batters, striking out 4 of them on 16 strikes. Only 3 of 23 pitches were actually in the strike zone: Breslow got them chasing every time.
 

 
His bread and butter is the 2-seam fastball tailing away and outside the zone to righties. Deeper into the at-bat, he gets whiffs on the cutter, 4-seamer and changeup.
 

 
These charts have been corrected for Tampa Bay's persistent movement and velocity error, so I think we can take the horizontal movement on the 2-seamer and changeup as the real thing. Breslow may not be throwing as hard as some relievers, but his location and movement are tempting the batter to chase outside the strike zone, if not quite off the charts.

 

[Reverend]

Croissant >>> Donut?
 
Holy crap.

 

[Al Zarilla]

In ALCS game 4, Breslow faced 6 batters, striking out 4 of them on 16 strikes, and only 3 of 23 pitches actually in the strike zone: Breslow gets them chasing every time.
 

 
His bread and butter is the 2-seam fastball tailing away and outside the zone to lefties. Deeper into the at-bat, he gets whiffs on the cutter, 4-seamer and changeup.
 
 
 
These charts have been corrected for Tampa Bay's persistent movement and velocity error, so the horizontal movement on the 2-seamer and changeup are the real thing. Breslow may not be throwing as hard as some relievers, but his location and movement are tempting the batter to chase outside the strike zone, if not quite off the charts.

Mein Gott! I've never seen anything like that. It's like Mike Krukow, ex pitcher and my favorite color analyst keeps saying during games, to not throw him (the hitter ) a strike in so, so many different situations. Use their aggression against them, etc. Breslow carried it out to perfection. 

 

[plnii]

In ALCS game 4, Breslow faced 6 batters, striking out 4 of them on 16 strikes. Only 3 of 23 pitches were actually in the strike zone: Breslow got them chasing every time.
 

 
His bread and butter is the 2-seam fastball tailing away and outside the zone to righties. Deeper into the at-bat, he gets whiffs on the cutter, 4-seamer and changeup.
 

 
These charts have been corrected for Tampa Bay's persistent movement and velocity error, so I think we can take the horizontal movement on the 2-seamer and changeup as the real thing. Breslow may not be throwing as hard as some relievers, but his location and movement are tempting the batter to chase outside the strike zone, if not quite off the charts.

 
Thanks for sharing, I was about the post the same idea without data to back it up. Pretty incredible that he was able to keep enticing the Rays to swing despite nearly every pitch being outside the zone. 

 

[joe dokes]

I think he throws harder than people realize as well. 92-93 tailing is much harder to lay off of square up than 89.

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

Thanks for sharing, I was about the post the same idea without data to back it up. Pretty incredible that he was able to keep enticing the Rays to swing despite nearly every pitch being outside the zone.

There were two called strikes just outside the zone (the two denoted '2' and '3') that appear to have begotten a lot of the swings out in that area (particularly the two swinging strikes but probably most of the foul balls as well).
 
(Apropos of nothing, I'm glad to see I wasn't imagining things when I did a double-take on the "tailing away from lefties" that was originally in the post as it has since been corrected.)

 

[Sprowl]

There were two called strikes just outside the zone (the two denoted '2' and '3') that appear to have begotten a lot of the swings out in that area (particularly the two swinging strikes but probably most of the foul balls as well).
 
(Apropos of nothing, I'm glad to see I wasn't imagining things when I did a double-take on the "tailing away from lefties" that was originally in the post as it has since been corrected.)

 
Yes, I posted in haste and corrected in leisure.
 
Those two called strikes make it look like Breslow found a bulge in the umpire's strike zone and ruthlessly set about exploiting it. Both Breslow and Uehara have the command to make that approach work -- and most of the time, so does Tazawa.

 

[Sprowl]

When Breslow squelched the Rays, he gave them nothing in the strike zone, but they chased anyway. Against the Tigers, he pitched four times, the first three in one-run games, during which he nibbled -- throwing few strikes, walking two hitters in two separate games. With a three-run lead in the eighth inning in Game 6, he poured on strikes: 10 pitches, 7 of them in the strike zone, 1 ball, and 2 swinging strikes on a cutter down and in to RHH Martinez and a sinker inside to LHH Fielder.
 

 
Uehara and Breslow both have pinpoint location and excellent movement. Who cares about velocity?

 

[joe dokes]

Not sure where else to put this (and apologies if posted already). But check out the video of Breslow introducing a BPD first responder at the NY BBWAA dinner. He's quite the speaker:
 
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/01/bostonians_honored_at_new_york_bbwaa_dinner.html

 

[AlNipper49]

That was pretty good

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Mariano Rivera sitting right next to the podium, in a tux and bowtie, chowing down on some chicken, was a nice little video-bombing.

 

[sittingstill]

Not sure where else to put this (and apologies if posted already). But check out the video of Breslow introducing a BPD first responder at the NY BBWAA dinner. He's quite the speaker:
 
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2014/01/bostonians_honored_at_new_york_bbwaa_dinner.html

I've been a supporter of his Strike 3 Foundation since he started it, and he does a great job at the fundraising events they hold every November (though they didn't have one in 2013--sheesh, it's like the guy thinks the World Series and his own wedding might take time away from the planning). A little advance word on next year's: it's a reasonably standard sort of dinner/program event, with good speakers and music, but they go all out on dessert. All out. Like a whole room of dessert tables and a fill-a-bag-of-candy-and-take-it-home sort of thing. Come for the eloquent lefty and the fight against cancer, stay for the dessert.