"Confidence": Sunday Gambling Preview Week 5
- Thread starter soxfan121
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I like the idea of an expanded Wong using a range of -7 to -8.5 and +1.5 to 3. -6 obviously wouldn't qualify. IIRC both Detroit and Denver started as 7.5 point favorites and were almost immediately then changed to only 7 point favorites. Wongs have lost their effectiveness over time due to higher scoring levels. They used to hit at around a 72.5% clip but it's closer to 67-68% now. As the score tail has gotten fatter Wongs potency has shrunk.
Why couldn't they have been called Smith teasers?
Why couldn't they have been called Smith teasers?
For the uninitiated, would teams with the following spreads:Stitch01 said:
Line is -2 (+6) = +4
" +2 (+6) = +8
" -8 (+6) = -2
" -12 1/2 (+6) = -6 1/2
all be considered Wong teasers?
And that these are good games to tease because teams tend win games (no line) by 3 or 7 in a disproportionate %?
The funny thing is I wrote out in the comments as I'm writing the article what a standard wong teaser is and then flubbed that in the picks selection.
It would make an interesting research project to see what score outcomes are now and if you can make a new Wong range.
It would make an interesting research project to see what score outcomes are now and if you can make a new Wong range.
Stitch01 said:
Probably is the key word. While I think you're probably correct I still want to see what the numbers, are, you know? I think most of the success we have is line shopping anyway for teasers. Hell, line shopping in general... if you aren't doing it you're doing yourself a disservice. By "you" I'm referring to the universal you not you in particular, Stich.
Edit: This is all text... I absolutely did not take an antagonistic tone there but this is the internet so you never know how someone is going to interpret your text-tone.
Line shopping is done by going to different casinos for different lines. If you like Detroit this weekend you would want to find the lowest possible line to bet on. Most casinos would have them at -7 but usually there will be one casino that has them at -6.5 or -6.
You also can shop for better rates. For example on many online casinos you have to pay 110 dollars on a teaser to win 100. Occasionally you can find teasers that only require wagering 100 dollars to win 100 on 5dimes.
Quick Edit: Brick and mortar casinos vary in what they charge per teaser but it averages around -120 to -130. YMMV. You pay a lot for those free drinks.
You also can shop for better rates. For example on many online casinos you have to pay 110 dollars on a teaser to win 100. Occasionally you can find teasers that only require wagering 100 dollars to win 100 on 5dimes.
Quick Edit: Brick and mortar casinos vary in what they charge per teaser but it averages around -120 to -130. YMMV. You pay a lot for those free drinks.
I think for amateurs like us line shopping and finding numbers with value in general is nearly as important as handicapping the games (it's why I think we should never be on the Bengals this week post line move no matter what we think of the teams now) so no argument there.
Outside of Wong teasers, I've never seen the numbers work that betting teasers is better than just betting the sides you like straight up
Outside of Wong teasers, I've never seen the numbers work that betting teasers is better than just betting the sides you like straight up
It's always better to tease through 3s and 7s, but only teasing through both with little juice has been both profitable historically and better than betting sides. 6 point teasers from 1.5-2.5 dogs and 7.5-8.5 favorites are Wong teasers.bankshot1 said:
My second bet of the year (1-0 so far) is New England straight up tonight. I actually expect the Patriots to get to the QB, and can't believe their offense is as bad as it has been - that's my unscientific reasoning.
I knew Buffalo had a merciless front seven and wrote as much in the preview. With six sacks and consistent pressure on every snap they lived up to their billing. But despite the relentless pass rush Detroit could have won had they not missed three field goals. C'est la vie.
I'd didnt bet it game of the year big and only made it a good sized bet after recovering from Alex Henery in the late games, didn't please it with SD and Denver, and still didn't bet it massive so no credit for cojones. Six point line move, should have been hammering it on general principle.
Denver, Seattle, and San Diego are all looking nice to tease at -7.5, -8.5, and -7. I especially like the matchup for the Broncos.Stitch01 said:
I'm one of the more objective non-homer guys but there will be revelry at my house as the Jets continue to spiral.