Neither ACC.com, Big10.com, Big12.com, Pac12.com, nor SEC.com are owned by the conferences which bear their names so the domain name is the least of their issues.mabrowndog said:
Conference Realignment Thread
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Well, it does appear they've also registered america-12.com (today, in fact), so I'll give them a pass.
Here's how I see it. If you were commited to the Avengers Assemble conference or whatever its going to be called when a team left you get a fair share of that exit fee. Tournament credits are off the table though. No way in hell UConn or Cincy should be giving UCF Memphis, etc a dime of that tournament credit money. Not a dime back.
So I don't know what the breakdown is but lets say of the 100 mil, 60 mil is for tourney credits and 40 mil is for exit fees...the three amigos split the 60 evenly for 20m each (I can't believe USF is gonna make 20mil plus on this thing, incredible). and the 40 mil gets split between the 12 for 3-4 mil. So a UConn or Cincy gets 23-24mil and a Houston or UCF gets 3-4 mil. OK maybe Temple gets bumped to 8-10 mil since they played football this year. You could tweak the amounts here or there but bottom line is UConn/Cincy/USF should be getting 5 or 6 times what the newbies are getting
So I don't know what the breakdown is but lets say of the 100 mil, 60 mil is for tourney credits and 40 mil is for exit fees...the three amigos split the 60 evenly for 20m each (I can't believe USF is gonna make 20mil plus on this thing, incredible). and the 40 mil gets split between the 12 for 3-4 mil. So a UConn or Cincy gets 23-24mil and a Houston or UCF gets 3-4 mil. OK maybe Temple gets bumped to 8-10 mil since they played football this year. You could tweak the amounts here or there but bottom line is UConn/Cincy/USF should be getting 5 or 6 times what the newbies are getting
Well Big East football. The Basketball only teams got exactly what they wanted and kept the name and MSG.JimD said:
Ultimately, everyone but UConn, Cincy and USF got what they wanted. Hoops schools got a hoops conference free of football B.S. and their best payday ever. Pitt and Syracuse go to the conference they've basically been trying to get into since 1990. Louisville overcomes their academic status and joins the ACC, and ND gets a bigger non-football payday while stabilizing their OOC and bowl schedule. Rutgers lucks into the Big Ten.
Crazy.
MWC signs new deal with ESPN
In addition to the new ESPN deal with the ex-Big East (nka America 12), CBS has added another $2M/yr to its deal. The combined deals pay the America 12 about $22M/yr for 9 years, or $1.8M/school based on 12 members.
Congratulations, America 12, on making $300k more per school than the MWC. In case there was any doubt previously, you are now officially a mid-major.
This also confirms that Boise St and SDSU absolutely made the correct decision to remain out west. The savings in travel costs for all sports and the reduction in time zone hassles justifies the slightly lower conference payout.
In addition to the new ESPN deal with the ex-Big East (nka America 12), CBS has added another $2M/yr to its deal. The combined deals pay the America 12 about $22M/yr for 9 years, or $1.8M/school based on 12 members.
Congratulations, America 12, on making $300k more per school than the MWC. In case there was any doubt previously, you are now officially a mid-major.
This also confirms that Boise St and SDSU absolutely made the correct decision to remain out west. The savings in travel costs for all sports and the reduction in time zone hassles justifies the slightly lower conference payout.
8slim said:
I would get argue USF got what they wanted: A huge lump of cash for being exactly what they are. A Mid Major Team.
UConn and Cincy will join the ACC when the next shoe falls.
Per WNDU, the announcement of ND to the ACC this fall will happen today.
http://www.wndu.com/home/headlines/Brey-We-wont-be-in-the-Big-East-next-year-196789501.html?
http://www.wndu.com/home/headlines/Brey-We-wont-be-in-the-Big-East-next-year-196789501.html?
TomRicardo said:
USF fancied themselves as the #4 Florida school who had a shot of becoming #3, overtaking Miami. It wasn't far-fetched, they're a university with a massive enrollment and a ton more resources than that little private school in Coral Gables. But it's going to be tough to overcome being stuck in a left-behind conference. Maybe the Big 12 will come calling someday?
I think UConn will end up the ACC at some point too, but (a) not because Virginia and UNC are leaving or some other such nonsense, and (b) if it's not for a few years their athletic dept might be in serious decline by then.
As they all wait to see how much Maryland has to pay before UNC, Virginia, GTech, Clemson, and Florida State all bail out.DukeSox said:
Edit - So basically it will become Duke and NC State joining the Old Big East minus the basketball.
bsj said:
Still no auto-bid with just 5 teams (Duke, UNC, VA, Syracuse, ND). But yeah, it's clearly a net improvement in depth and strength. I wonder if any of BC/VT/FSU/GT/PIT will elevate their programs from MCLA to NCAA level. Or how about this unlikely scenario: Adding Johns Hopkins, which just announced they've formed a conference affiliation committee to explore their options.
I'm also curious where Maryland and Rutgers will play in 2014, and whether the Big Ten will look to start up its own lax conference like they're doing with hockey this fall/winter. Like the ACC, they've got five schools with Div I programs now (Mich, Ohio St, Penn St + the Terps & Scarlet Knights). Michigan St & Minnesota adding teams has been rumored/discussed on various lax boards since late last year, but that's not exactly a short-term proposition for either school. Can't help but think this is a possible landing spot for Johns Hopkins, either.
While we're talking LAX and realignment, the Atlantic Sun will form a new D-I league next spring with Jacksonville, Mercer, Furman*, High Point*, Richmond* and VMI*. Furman and Richmond are starting up new programs. Schools with an asterisk will be lax-only affiliate members. JU and VMI are currently in the MAAC while Mercer and High Point (now in its debut NCAA season) are D-I independents.
The A-Sun's formation could actually help the surviving Big East lax members. Georgetown, Providence, St. John's & Villanova will obviously keep the conference name, and Marquette will join next spring after playing its first NCAA season as an independent this year. But they'd still be one school shy of auto-bid status. Meanwhile the MAAC will lose two members to the A-Sun, but they're adding Quinnipiac (from the NEC) and Monmouth (starting its lax program in 2014). So the quickest fix for the Big East might be to add Siena as a lax-only member, as the Saints have been rumored as a candidate to join as full members. In a pinch, the Big East could also invite any of the other surviving MAAC schools as affiliates without disrupting its religious tenor, as Manhattan, Marist, Detroit & Canisius are all Catholic institutions. And taking just one team would still leave the MAAC with the minimum 6 teams required for autobid status. But Siena would have to be the clear favorite based on the strength of their program.
<br /><br />Each of the five ACC Lacrosse members have made the last five NCAA Tournaments, so the auto-bid is trivial.mabrowndog said:
True. But a 6-team league would at least add some shred of legitimacy to the ACC lax tournament, which otherwise figures to continue as nothing more than a device for building up each other's RPIs to ensure higher seeding in the NCAAs.
DukeSox said:
Tom is right on his response -- no other action with respect to the ACC will take place until Maryland's exit fee is resolved. ACC schools already trail everyone else when it comes to TV network cash, and with some schools going head-to-head with in-state rivals from the SEC in the football-mad south -- Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson mainly -- it would be smart to at least listen before saying no.
ACC schools reportedly make $17 million annually. If the SEC lands somewhere between $30 million and $40 million, is a $15 million to $20 million gap between in-state rivals acceptable to everyone on those campuses during the life of that contract through 2027? That's the question.
I don't doubt for a second that the ACC schools are happy where they are, especially with Notre Dame agreeing to five football games annually to go with the Olympic sports. But conference realignment is all about money. And if the money isn't there in the ACC, you have to at least listen when someone proposes to throw it your way.
The real thing to watch is what happens to the Atlantic 10 after Big East grabs from them.
Lets say they take Butler, Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton.
UNC Charlotte and Temple are out.
That leaves 9 schools. UMass has FBS football now so they could possibly go to the Mid Major 12. Does the Atlantic 10 go to 8? Do they have the pull to drag from other conferences?
Lets say they take Butler, Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton.
UNC Charlotte and Temple are out.
That leaves 9 schools. UMass has FBS football now so they could possibly go to the Mid Major 12. Does the Atlantic 10 go to 8? Do they have the pull to drag from other conferences?
TomRicardo said:
10 schools
Duquesne
VCU
URI
UMass (they aren't going anywhere for a couple years anyway)
St Joseph's
St Bonaventure
Fordham
George Washington
LaSalle
Richmond
They can absolutely draw schools from the Horizon, CAA, MAAC, America East and NEC. I wouldn't be surprised if they were the 2nd best non-football conference for the forseable future behind the new Big East.
I would think Iona or LIU would be logical choices. Not sure about the CAA. They're already losing ODU, Georgia State, but adding Charleston. I'd think they'd look to expand rather than decrease.URI said:
If the A10 puts together a better looking deal for George Mason, then the CAA doesn't have much of a say to it. They almost jumped last year.
The Atlantic 10 is looking for schools bigger schools than LIU and Iona.
The Atlantic 10 is looking for schools bigger schools than LIU and Iona.
Sea Dog said:
The disparity may not end up being as great as some people suggest. ACC is going to come in at $19-20MM annually as they re-renegotiate the ND football deal and the Louisville addition. And they're going to launch some fashion of "network", be it TV or subscriber-fee-based digital, so that'll get them some more revenue. I'm also not sure that the B1G and SEC are going to be swimming in the kind of cash that they're rosily projecting. It's a BAD time to be pushing cable companies to throw another $1 per subscriber at a sports channel -- between Fox rolling out a more compelling (and as expensive) channel, and the rhetoric in Washington getting ever hotter about regulating the industry.
I mean anything can happen, but the B1G would have you believe they'll just get cable companies to agree to a 8-10X increase in cost for the channel across 30 million households. Not sure that's going to fly, especially in places like New Jersey and Maryland, where college sports is a distant #2 to pro sports.
So the question could become: is it worth these ACC schools leaving their conference to get $7-8 million more a year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that revenue-rich schools like UNC and UVA are willing to chase that relatively little of money. And let's be real, no one is going to the Big-freakin'-12. That's a death march.
8slim said:
Not sure ESPN's going to be in a rush to create an ACC Network given that it's likely the partner to launch the SEC Network come summer 2014. So it would definitely have to be Web-based, maybe something like an ACC Channel on ESPN3. But it wouldn't be anywhere near the money-maker the Big Ten Network or SEC Network.
Louisville won't add value to the contract because they replace Maryland. Call that a wash. Notre Dame can only add so much value without the full-time football commitment, meaning an average of 2.5 football games per the life of the contract. So let's go with your ACC estimate of around $20 million, which would represent a bump from what the ACC schools are expected to make. The Big Ten is expected to pay each school more than $40 million with new TV contracts starting in 2017. There are some reports that Big 12 schools will start making as much as $30 million when TV deals kick in come 2014.
If those numbers turn out to be accurate, would an annual $10 million gap with the Big 12 and an annual $20 million gap with the Big Ten be enough to at least listen to overtures from those conferences? Administrators would be dumb not to at least listen. SI.com's Pete Thamel wrote a column, released Thursday, that talked about realignment's "next logical evolution will inevitably be a poaching of the ACC."
Realignment being all about money, ACC teams will have to listen. The conference's media contracts dictate it.
TomRicardo said:
I'm saying that the money would need to be a slam dunk, no brainer for the school's in question. I mean if the B1G really is going to dump $40 million a year onto it's member schools then I'm sure at some point UNC and UVA would listen. But as of now that's just a promise based on ideal market conditions that are not entirely likely to come true, not a current reality. Maryland bit hard for the promise because their AD is so deep underwater they can see Atlantis.
Meanwhile Florida State and Clemson would try every last possible, conceivable way to get themselves into the SEC or B1G before they would slink off to the Big 12.
I'm not saying things can't or won't happen. Just saying that there's a lot more dynamics to the equation than just thinking one conference pays $X more than another based on some media reports.
8slim said:
Well, if the gentlemen's agreement that every major media outlet talked about is true, then Florida State and Clemson have no chance to join the SEC based on Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky and maybe others voting against it as a group -- and that's not to mention the SEC wanting to add new markets for its own network, so they won't double-down where they already are. And because Florida State and Clemson are not AAU schools, that's a non-starter as far as Big Ten membership is concerned. So unless the Pac-12 wants to span coast-to-coast, there's one realistic option for those two schools.
Per the Omaha World-Herald, Craighton will join the Big East next season. Announcement expected Wednesday or Thursday.
Per the Indianapolis Star, Butler will join the Big East next season, paying a $2 million exit fee. Announcement expected next week.
Per the Indianapolis Star, Butler will join the Big East next season, paying a $2 million exit fee. Announcement expected next week.
<br /><br />I'm no expert, unlike the half of the Internet that apparently has well-placed sources in every AD and league office in the country.Sea Dog said:
<br /><br />But looking at it another way... If Big 12 schools stand to make $30M a year, my understanding is that their media deals cannot be re-opened due to expansion. Or at least the networks aren't obligated to renegotiate, as they were with the ACC. So if the B12 added FSU and Clemson, would the networks just fork over another $60M/year to maintain that existing per team payout? Seems unlikely, I can't see how they could make more than $60M in ad sales on 8-9 FSU and Clemson games. Especially since there's no B12 network to land additional subscriber fees.<br /><br />Like I said, I'm no expert, but I think there are more parties impacted by the financials of this stuff than people consider.
I love the idea of the Catholic schools splitting off and forming this league, I think it's the coolest thing to happen in college hoops in a decade or more.
But I have serious doubts about this conference's ability to make MSG a viable tournament location, and I'm surprised this hasn't come up more in the media coverage. I haven't been to the BET in 7 or 8 years (since BC left), but I went for many years prior to that, and MSG was always most juiced for the UConn, Syracuse, and Pitt sessions. St. Johns used to draw decently when they had more exciting talent (I'm talking about the 80's and 90's here), but even with the good Jarvis teams I don't remember them really packing the Garden for their games.
Which of the Catholic schools are going to draw 20K to MSG? Maybe times have changed and some of these schools are traveling better, but certainly in my MSG years I never saw a sizeable PC, Villanova, or Georgetown crowd. When you had two of the Catholic schools playing in a session without Syracuse, UConn, or Pitt, the place was usually pretty dead. And I can't imagine Creighton, Butler, or Xavier are going to help much with that.
This new iteration of the Big East is a great TV conference - but the original Big East also had a couple of big northeastern schools (enrollment > 15K) within reasonable driving distance to help drive tournament attendance. I think that difference is going to kill the MSG tie-in pretty quickly.
But I have serious doubts about this conference's ability to make MSG a viable tournament location, and I'm surprised this hasn't come up more in the media coverage. I haven't been to the BET in 7 or 8 years (since BC left), but I went for many years prior to that, and MSG was always most juiced for the UConn, Syracuse, and Pitt sessions. St. Johns used to draw decently when they had more exciting talent (I'm talking about the 80's and 90's here), but even with the good Jarvis teams I don't remember them really packing the Garden for their games.
Which of the Catholic schools are going to draw 20K to MSG? Maybe times have changed and some of these schools are traveling better, but certainly in my MSG years I never saw a sizeable PC, Villanova, or Georgetown crowd. When you had two of the Catholic schools playing in a session without Syracuse, UConn, or Pitt, the place was usually pretty dead. And I can't imagine Creighton, Butler, or Xavier are going to help much with that.
This new iteration of the Big East is a great TV conference - but the original Big East also had a couple of big northeastern schools (enrollment > 15K) within reasonable driving distance to help drive tournament attendance. I think that difference is going to kill the MSG tie-in pretty quickly.
Considering they're going to earn a decent fortune from the new TV contract (likely with FOX), I think the Big East will gladly absorb any losses incurred by failing to adequately fill MSG come March -- at least for the first few years. The prestige of playing in Manhattan is well worth it as these schools continue to compete for top recruits with the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC etc.
I can see the conference doing whatever it can to encourage greater attendance, whether it's lowering prices or even giving away large blocks of tickets to each school for students. I also believe it'll be a pretty big deal for the three new additions (Xavier, Butler, Creighton), at least early on if for no other reason than the "new car smell". But if the BET is still a loss leader, so be it.
Keeping the tournament at MSG is the basketball marketing equivalent of paying for a Super Bowl ad.
I can see the conference doing whatever it can to encourage greater attendance, whether it's lowering prices or even giving away large blocks of tickets to each school for students. I also believe it'll be a pretty big deal for the three new additions (Xavier, Butler, Creighton), at least early on if for no other reason than the "new car smell". But if the BET is still a loss leader, so be it.
Keeping the tournament at MSG is the basketball marketing equivalent of paying for a Super Bowl ad.
mabrowndog said:
Good points. I do agree that the first tournament or two will be carried by the "new car smell." But I think expectations about retaining the old Big East atmosphere at MSG are unrealistic. When the building is half empty all the time, it will get old quickly. Don't forget, it costs a fortune to put games on at MSG - it's a union building, and the ticket prices are not very flexible. Eating 10K seats a night will become a huge burden on the conference - and schools hate kicking money back to the conference office for items like that.
I expect that within 10 years that tournament is moving around smaller venues in the northeast/midwest and the conference will probably be better off for it.
You have to think the folks at MSG are looking for any way possible to get out of this deal with the Catholic 7 and get the ACC up to Manhattan. Duke/UNC/Cuse in the Garden? They will be able to print money.
The problem with that is the ACC is still rooted in Dixie. Playing their tourneys up where Yankees live, I dont know.
Why can't MSG alternate every other year between the Catholic league and the ACC? The ACC can play the off year in some location in Dixie and the Catholic league can play their off year in Philly or DC.
Of course if the B1G and SEC take out their knives, maybe MSG is just waiting for the old BIg East to get back together once UConn gets added (fingers crossed).
Why can't MSG alternate every other year between the Catholic league and the ACC? The ACC can play the off year in some location in Dixie and the Catholic league can play their off year in Philly or DC.
Of course if the B1G and SEC take out their knives, maybe MSG is just waiting for the old BIg East to get back together once UConn gets added (fingers crossed).
Swofford has already started talking about playing the ACC tourney in NYC. It'll happen in time.
Captaincoop said:
I've been thinking about that attendance issue too and wonder if it will come up at the announcement today. I was at the BET last Thursday and in both the day and evening sessions the place was mostly empty for games involving C7 schools, then filled up for Cuse and ND games.
Personally I think it would be incredibly awesome to let Butler host the BET at Hinkel Fieldhouse in Indy someday.
By the way, the press conference announcing the new BE is viewable here at 11am if you'd like to watch: http://msn.foxsports.com/video/college-basketball?vid=4e20438c-a84e-491e-ade2-926ab78aacf3
Dehere said:
* Moderated by Gus Johnson. No Gus-gasms yet.
* New 12-year deal with FOX Sports. Terms not disclosed.
* BET will remain at MSG for forseeable future, no definite time commitment given.
* Big East will invite other schools to become associate members in other sports such as field hockey and lacrosse
* Dan Beebe, ex-commissioner of MAC, brought on as consultant to help facilitate conference transitions.
* FOX contract includes all sports, will broadcast women's basketball, baseball, lacrosse.
Press release suggests the BET/MSG link will remain intact for the duration of the FOX contract.
Various twitter reports put the dollar figure at $500 million for a 10-team league, and $600 million if it expands to a 12-team league. That's $4.17 million per team annually -- or about what ESPN would have paid the entire league as a whole.
The multipe lacrosse mentions are interesting. They're scheduled to drop to just 5 teams in 2014 with ND/Cuse/Rutgers departing and Marquette joining Georgetown, St. John's, Nova and PC. The Big Ten (also with 5 schools) has reportedly been hard & heavy after Johns Hopkins. I'd have to think a Big East affiliation would be just as appealing to them, though it would mean having two schools with "Blue Jays" as a mascot.
I have never attended the Big East tournament in the Garden, but I have lived in NYC for 20 years, and in that time, media interest in St. John's generally has dwindled to almost nothing. There is very little time/space devoted to SJU on local news broadcasts, Daily News/NY Post sports pages, WFAN, etc. Syracuse and UConn have both been much higher profile.
St. John's is a decent size school (~15,000 undergrads as per Wikipedia), but it is in the ass-end of Queens, FAR from Manhattan and MSG. A one-way trip on public transportation would take well over an hour. It is no exaggeration that you can be three-quarters of the way to New Haven in the time it takes you to get to the St. John's campus from MSG.
And if SJU is barely on the radar in the NYC market, then Seton Hall isn't there. At all. Like, bull riding gets more coverage in NYC then Seton Hall basketball.
St. John's is a decent size school (~15,000 undergrads as per Wikipedia), but it is in the ass-end of Queens, FAR from Manhattan and MSG. A one-way trip on public transportation would take well over an hour. It is no exaggeration that you can be three-quarters of the way to New Haven in the time it takes you to get to the St. John's campus from MSG.
And if SJU is barely on the radar in the NYC market, then Seton Hall isn't there. At all. Like, bull riding gets more coverage in NYC then Seton Hall basketball.
OilCanShotTupac said:
Good points. In the days of Carnesecca and Carlesimo, both schools were front page news. Chris Mullin. Malik Sealy. Dan Callandrillo. Willie Glass. Boo Harvey. Andre McCloud. Mark Jackson. Terry DeHere. Mark Bryant. Walter Berry. Andrew Gaze. Bill Wennington. Ramon Ramos. Daryll Walker. All household names at one point in basketball circles, but man, that was a long time ago. Really, despite a few spurts of success and a handful of players in the pros, it's been pretty much all downhill for both SHU and SJU since the Pirates lost by a point Michigan in the '89 NCG.
Today I think it comes down to marketing. Over the past decade and a half, football ruled the conference. If some basketball success came along for the ride, that was icing on the cake. And it just so happened that Cuse and UConn (and to a lesser extent Georgetown, Nova, ND and Marquette) saw the lion's share of it. But the conference leadership was never going to put much effort into ensuring the basketball-only schools would grow their programs. That's all going to change. It has to.
Not only will SJ and SH see a renewal of attention, but so will DePaul. All three need that rejuvenation more than any other teams in the conference. More importantly, the conference needs them to be strong as representatives of the two largest media markets. DePaul's importance is ramped up further with the additions of three more midwest schools, and the likely additions of two more in the coming years (Dayton, St. Louis). DePaul needs to be the anchor program for that group.
mabrowndog said:
'dog, I agree, but I think this points to a larger problem with college basketball nowadays.
Those classic St. John's teams, like all teams from the golden age of the Big East, kept their players for four years, and teams built real public identites. Some pro teams don't even keep their core groups together for four years, after all. When St. John's with Mullin played Georgetown with Ewing in the early 80's, it was appointment television. I was in junior high school in suburban Hartford at the time, and the whole school would buzz in anticipation of the matchup, and we weren't even in one of the markets in question (I remember yelling at my eight-grade Spanish teacher, who was a senile old bat who couldn't control her classroom, that I didn't do my homework because "anoche tenia que ver San Juan contra JorgePueblo"). Watching that game was no different than watching the Thunder vs. Heat to see Lebron and Durant go at it.
Now? Good players are one year and done in college, if they even go to college at all. Few teams keep their stars long enough to build an identity that penetrates to the casual sports fan. A new cast of characters every year (which also can mean shittier team basketball: see Kentucky's recent NIT exit).
Combine that with realignments destroying traditional conference rivalries and sending teams all over the country to play their games, and I think college basketball is looking at a real challenge. College football will survive better, IMO, because it's more deeply imbedded in the culture of its hotbeds, for the most part, and because it keeps its stars for longer (see the cult of Tebow in Gainesville). I just have a hard time imagining any SJU or SHU team developing enough high-profile players under the current system to cut through the clutter in the NYC media market. If there is a true star at St. John's, he'll declare for the draft after a year. I think those days are gone for SJU, I really do.
OilCanShotTupac said:
More good points, and I have no rebuttals other than this: All college basketball teams face the same limitations. Yet many schools have maintained success under those constraints. Others, including some with nowhere near the advantage the Big East schools will have in terms of location, money and exposure, have actually developed from nothing into perennial national powers (Gonzaga, Butler).
I can't say those same models will succeed at SJU, SHU and DePaul, but I don't see any reason they can't.