Comparing Sullinger and Jefferson

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
Everyone's looking for the "big splash" as in 2007, but you can also rebuild by steady accretion. Add one or two pieces this year, two more next year, etc.

I wouldn't trade Sullinger for Love. Love isn't KG, and Sullinger is better now than Al Jefferson was in 2007.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,192
The X Man Cometh said:
 
Personally, at the time I felt that Jefferson had a greater upside than I feel with Sullinger today.
 
Agreed.  Also fewer health flags, which matters as well.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,463
bowiac said:
I'd say they're pretty close honestly. 
I wouldn't.
Jefferson was a significantly more efficient scorer, and I think was a better rim protector (tough to tell for sure as they didn't really track that.) certainly he blocked shots which has some impact. He got to the line at a much higher rate as well even if he didn't shoot as well when he got there.
Jefferson was a superior offensive player, and any differences in defense don't make up for it.
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
Jefferson in 2007 did two things well: low post scoring and defensive rebounding. But the 2014 Sullinger is a better defender, better offensive rebounder, better passer, better handles, more range on his shot, and a better free throw shooter (by about 10%). Sullinger is also a year younger than Jefferson was in 2007. In addition, the 2007 Celtics had Kendrick Perkins, who started 52 games at center, plus Olowokandi. Jefferson did not play out of position nearly as much as Sullinger has this year, or as much against the other team's first unit.

I'll say this about Big Al: if he hadn't gotten hurt in that first year in MN (when he was playing for McHale), he likely would have had a better career. That injury in his 4th year really set him back.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,192
Brickowski said:
Jefferson in 2007 did two things well: low post scoring and defensive rebounding. But the 2014 Sullinger is a better defender, better offensive rebounder, better passer, better handles, more range on his shot, and a better free throw shooter (by about 10%). Sullinger is also a year younger than Jefferson was in 2007. In addition, the 2007 Celtics had Kendrick Perkins, who started 52 games at center, plus Olowokandi. Jefferson did not play out of position nearly as much as Sullinger has this year, or as much against the other team's first unit.

I'll say this about Big Al: if he hadn't gotten hurt in that first year in MN (when he was playing for McHale), he likely would have had a better career. That injury in his 4th year really set him back.
 
Jefferson was basically a full-time starter by 2007, so the '1st team' argument isn't really so.   While you can break the components down, Jefferson was a better offensive player (all in) in 2007 by a good amount (about 3 points of PER); I agree Sullinger was a better defensive player, but not enough to make up that gap.  I personally saw a lot more growth potential in Jefferson, who had shown flashes of quality defense and rim protection (ultimately, he didn't develop those parts of his game unfortunately) and McHale-like offensive skills.   And I say that as someone who really likes Sullinger....but his ceiling for me is a good bit lower, though perhaps more achievable.
 
Would be quite happy for Sullinger to prove me wrong over the next few years.
 

Brickowski

Banned
Feb 15, 2011
3,755
IMHO Sullinger will have a better career than Jefferson, so long as Jared keeps himself in shape (and there's no reason to think he won't). Time will tell.

But the other sides of the coin is Love vs KG, who was (and probably still is) light years ahead of Love defensively).
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,463
Brickowski said:
Jefferson in 2007 did two things well: low post scoring and defensive rebounding. But the 2014 Sullinger is a better defender, better offensive rebounder, better passer, better handles, more range on his shot, and a better free throw shooter (by about 10%). Sullinger is also a year younger than Jefferson was in 2007. In addition, the 2007 Celtics had Kendrick Perkins, who started 52 games at center, plus Olowokandi. Jefferson did not play out of position nearly as much as Sullinger has this year, or as much against the other team's first unit.

I'll say this about Big Al: if he hadn't gotten hurt in that first year in MN (when he was playing for McHale), he likely would have had a better career. That injury in his 4th year really set him back.
So going through these 1 by 1.
 
1. Defense- eye test versus 7 year old memories of Al make me agree slightly, but the data such as it is doesn't really back it up, I'd say the difference is marginal, Jared is probably a bit better on the perimeter vs PF, Al was better against centers. Al also appears to have cause more turnovers between steals and blocks (assuming a normal distribution of recovery of blocks by each team).
 
2. Better offensive rebounder- definitely, about 12.8% versus 12.3%.
 
3. One of the big differences, Al was not effective at setting up teammates his first two years, in 2007 he took a big step forward, but Sully is still significantly better.
 
4. Handles... I guess, but really neither should ever take more than 3 consecutive dribbles.
 
5. Range... Sullinger does have range, unfortunately even his 3 point attempts don't make up for the far superior scoring ability of Jefferson.
 
6. FT%, as I noted, a plus for Sully, unfortunately his FT rate is pretty abysmal compared to Jefferson, so Jefferson actually was more valuable at the line despite his lower conversion rate per shot.
 
7. Positioning- Jefferson played more minutes at C than PF that year by a slim margain, Olowakandi played a total of 234 minutes, and Kendrick only played 1500 or so. Jefferson played 2300 minutes total (more than Sully's entire career) more than half at C while Ryan Gomes played PF.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Cellar-Door said:
I wouldn't.
Jefferson was a significantly more efficient scorer, and I think was a better rim protector (tough to tell for sure as they didn't really track that.) certainly he blocked shots which has some impact. He got to the line at a much higher rate as well even if he didn't shoot as well when he got there.
Jefferson was a superior offensive player, and any differences in defense don't make up for it.
Jefferson piled up blocks the Amar'e way, which is to say he ran around looking for shots to block, often opening up clear paths to the rim for opposing players. This is the biggest problem with defensive metrics as they exist, they give brownie points for rebounds and blocks while ignoring what's actually happening on the court. Sullinger is certainly slow-footed, and won't ever be much of a shotblocker, but he actually gives maximum effort on the defensive end and understands the importance of defensive positioning. While still grabbing lots of boards. He's the poor man's Kevin Love, but he's already a better defender. I definitely don't think that he has the upside that Jefferson had in 2007, but I feel a lot more confident about Sullinger being a cog on a winning team than I ever did Jefferson.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,441
Haiku
Broken out of the Trading Chips thread and separated from the Kevin Love hoop dream.
 
***
 
Jefferson and Sullinger are similar players in many respects: bulky inside players with great hands but limited hops and quickness. Both understand the value of good positioning. I'd give Jefferson the nod for post moves and inside scoring ability, but Sullinger has the better all-around game, and it shows particularly in outside shooting and defensive awareness.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
Brickowski said:
IMHO Sullinger will have a better career than Jefferson, so long as Jared keeps himself in shape (and there's no reason to think he won't). Time will tell.
 
 
Keeps himself in shape? I suppose things could certainly get worse.... but he is in pretty awful shape right now.  It's the biggest thing holding him back in my opinion, and the main reason he has trouble sustaining performance (both within games, as well as over the course of the season). Not to mention it's a big risk factor for another setback with his back going forward. 
 
Despite his improved play, I've actually been disappointed in that aspect this season.  After back surgery and a full offseason, if anything he looks bigger and slower out there.  There are some old pics of him at Ohio State when he actually looked to be in substantially better shape than he is right now. He needs to get on the Kevin Love workout program ASAP.
 
Hard to see him taking another leap from "solid starter on a decent team" to "Top 3 or 4 player on a contending team" without substantially improving his conditioning.  If he does that, I'm pretty optimistic about his future.  It won't be easy though, as clearly he is a really big guy naturally.  
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,470
Somewhere
Hard to evaluate Sullinger while he still hasn't mastered his outside shooting touch. If he gets there, and he may, I think he could be a pretty good player. I'm not as optimistic as some, I think he's probably going to cap out at Ilyasova level, but that's still a useful rotation piece.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,620
radsoxfan said:
 
Keeps himself in shape? I suppose things could certainly get worse.... but he is in pretty awful shape right now.  It's the biggest thing holding him back in my opinion, and the main reason he has trouble sustaining performance (both within games, as well as over the course of the season). Not to mention it's a big risk factor for another setback with his back going forward. 
 
Despite his improved play, I've actually been disappointed in that aspect this season.  After back surgery and a full offseason, if anything he looks bigger and slower out there.  There are some old pics of him at Ohio State when he actually looked to be in substantially better shape than he is right now. He needs to get on the Kevin Love workout program ASAP.
 
Hard to see him taking another leap from "solid starter on a decent team" to "Top 3 or 4 player on a contending team" without substantially improving his conditioning.  If he does that, I'm pretty optimistic about his future.  It won't be easy though, as clearly he is a really big guy naturally.  
you say "after back surgery and a full offseason." but I would imagine the back surgery cut into that conditioning time. Sullinger is smart enough to realize he isn't in great shape. Im sure he will focus on that and take the proper supplements.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
Devizier said:
Hard to evaluate Sullinger while he still hasn't mastered his outside shooting touch. If he gets there, and he may, I think he could be a pretty good player. I'm not as optimistic as some, I think he's probably going to cap out at Ilyasova level, but that's still a useful rotation piece.
 
So his is going to cap out exactly where he is today (or maybe even lower?).... a useful rotation piece?
 
I guess you're right, you're not very high on him.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,622
luckiestman said:
you say "after back surgery and a full offseason." but I would imagine the back surgery cut into that conditioning time. Sullinger is smart enough to realize he isn't in great shape. Im sure he will focus on that and take the proper supplements.
 
Hard to know for sure how much the injury is to blame, but his surgery (microdiscectomy) was relatively minor, as far as back surgeries go. And he had it in early February 2013.  
 
Totally reasonable that he was without restrictions for the full offseason.  In fact, if the Celtics were title contenders, it would have been totally reasonable for Sullinger to have come back late in the year or for the playoffs.  
 
They were extremely conservative with him, which I'm fine with, but he doesnt get a pass for coming into this season overweight.  Unless there were complications I'm unaware of, he had plenty of time.
 
Though admittedly, if he ballooned up from a couple months of inactivity right after surgery, maybe he was fighting an uphill battle and starting from a worse place than he usually would be.  Big offseason coming up for him this year, no doubt.