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Coming to MLB in 2018-ish - Shohei Ohtani

Discussion in 'MLB Discussion' started by Tokyo Sox, Oct 4, 2016.

  1. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  2. Tokyo Sox

    Tokyo Sox Baka Gaijin Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    As per jon abbey's link, yes. He hit .332/.403/.540 in limited action this year (200+ ABs) and .322/.416/.588 in 323 ABs last year.

    Yes. I think LAD are probably the front runners at the moment. The money really doesn't seem to matter to him. I think he'll go wherever he has the best chance to be a two-way player, so whoever puts together the most convincing proposal on that front will be the winner.

    Some articles out here today (in Japanese): he has "officially" announced his intention to head to MLB, has hired LA-based Nez Balelo/CAA (in English) as his agent.

    Now we all just have to wait and see whatever the new posting agreement turns out to be. MLB is apparently pushing to move towards a percentage of contract fee, 15% up to 100mil, and then a fixed 20mil if the total value of the contract goes over 100mil. Which NPB will probably agree to, but Nippon Ham has requested that Ohtani be treated under the old system (20 mil max), because 15% of the few million he'll have to sign for is a pretty raw deal for them.
     
    #52 Tokyo Sox, Nov 7, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2017
  3. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Of course Otani can decide whatever he wants and no one really knows what that will be yet, but the Dodgers could only give him $300K as they are capped, where NY can give him $3.5M:

    "Eight teams have the ability to pay Ohtani a signing bonus of more than $1 million: the Rangers ($3.535M), Yankees ($3.5M), Pirates ($2.27M), Twins ($1.895M), D-Backs ($1.87M), Marlins ($1.74M), Tigers ($1.072M) and Mariners ($1.056M).

    Conversely, 12 teams are prohibited from giving a signing bonus of more than $300,000 as a penalty for exceeding their bonus pools under the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement: the A’s, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Padres, Reds, Royals and White Sox."

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260668594/10-storylines-to-watch-this-mlb-offseason/

    Also Otani wants to hit and there's no DH in the NL, it's unlikely he will play much OF. NY's DH spot is currently largely open, I don't think that's a coincidence.
     
  4. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah he’s going to NY barring a miracle.
    So are they seriously going to land him on a ridiculously low salary? At least they had to pay thru the nose to get Tanaka
     
  5. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    Still pisses me off there isn’t an international draft
     
  6. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  7. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    You can say the same about the Red Sox. We have an opening at DH and rotation as well. And correct me if I am wrong but the Sox have been scouting him for way more than 5 years I think.



    Edit:

    Yes

    http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2012/10/boston_red_sox_scouting_shohei.html
     
  8. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Sure, like I said, no one really knows, although the Red Sox can't pay him as much as Texas or the Yankees, according to the above piece.
     
  9. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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  10. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I mean, all of this is well known, if it was "about the money", he would wait two years and get a nine figure deal from the highest bidder. Nevertheless, all else being relatively equal, $3M is better than $300K.
     
  11. jungleboy

    jungleboy lurker

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    So you're saying he Phammed both years?
     
  12. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    The Red Sox should have about 900k left to offer. It's still a sizable difference but not quite so much as you are assuming.
     
  13. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  14. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    I think NY having the most money to offer and Tanaka already being on the team help them considerably.
    However as others have said he’s passing on a massive contract if he just waits two years so maybe money means little to him
    Anyone know how much he has already earned in Japan (in American dollars)?
     
  15. paulb0t

    paulb0t Member SoSH Member

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    In 2017 he earned 270m yen, or about $2.4m USD. He also earned 100m yen in 2015 (about 840k), and I'm sure somewhere in between that for 2016. So, he's made a decent amount – although certainly not enough to give up a huge signing bonus unless there's some "future earnings" insurance policy he can take out.
     
  16. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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  17. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Ron Darling and Dan O'Down compared Otani to a young Josh Beckett as a pitcher and Anthony Rizzo as a hitter on MLBN. Wow.
     
  18. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    If that's true, isn't it stupid to not use him as a hitter (or at least both), given the far greater uncertainty surrounding pitchers?
     
  19. Boggs26

    Boggs26 Member SoSH Member

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    If that were true (it almost certainly isn't) - and the price is low enough to take the risk - you'd have to DH him 3-5 games a week between starts. Long term, that's probably not good for his health, but in the short term you'd have a 8-12 bWAR player. If you can get that for the signing numbers being tossed around it's the steal of the century.

    The other obvious option is to test him out as a closer. DH him or put him in the OF for 8 innings, then bring him in to pitch the 9th.

    Of course in the real world he probably isn't Beckett and Rizzo rolled into one so all of this is moot.
     
  20. Philip Jeff Frye

    Philip Jeff Frye Member SoSH Member

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    From an ESPN article in December 2006:

    A veteran MLB scout compares the six-foot, 187-pound Matsuzaka to Hall of Famer Tom Seaver...

    And a Carfardo article from the same time:

    Daisuke Matsuzaka has been lavishly portrayed as the next Tom Seaver, Curt Schilling, or David Cone -- or a combination of all of them.

    And a NY Post article:

    Boras said Matsuzaka’s fastball resembles Tom Seaver’s and his slider is like Steve Carlton’s.

    Obviously, DiceK did not turn out to be Tom Seaver.
     
  21. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    He is definitely going to get the chance to do both, since that is evidently his main criterion for picking a team, that they will give him a genuine chance to do both,
     
  22. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    If Otani is pitching in the AL and they being in a reliever and put Otani in for the LF, I assume he just takes the LF spot in the lineup, right? Same as anyone else subbing for the LF?
     
  23. BuellMiller

    BuellMiller lurker

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    If he goes to the Yankees, I hope he only hits like Rizzo did his year in San Diego (yeah, I know he was only 21), and/or only pitches like Beckett in 2006.
     
  24. Ford Frick's Asterisk

    Ford Frick's Asterisk Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think you can add the DH spot after a game has started, so if he's the starting pitcher and presumably batting for himself, then shifts to LF in favor of a relief pitcher, the reliever would then be due to hit in the original left fielder's spot in the batting order. Any relief pitchers would most likely be pinch-hit for, rather than having a set DH in that spot.

    *
     
  25. Boggs26

    Boggs26 Member SoSH Member

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    But there's also the possibility of using the DH, not having Otani hit while pitching and then moving him to LF to take that slot in the lineup. He might only get 1-2 at bats on days he starts, but I'm assuming that in this scenario he'd also be DHing or paying LF in between starts.

    However, despite how interesting it would be, I'd be fairly stunned if he is in the starting rotation and regularly plays a position (or DH) between starts. Maybe an occasional late inning PH or rare DH appearance, but nothing regular unless he moves to the bullpen - the wear and tear of 162 would just be too much I think
     
  26. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    If there is a team on the outside of the race for Otani they will offer to let him do whatever he wants.
    These teams are paying a pittance for him
     
  27. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    He hasn't played in the outfield for a few years, I think what he'd like to at least try is being in the rotation, hitting that day, and DHing 1 or 2 other days every turn through the rotation. My impression is that he isn't sure he can do this (how could he be?) but he definitely wants the chance to see for himself and to be with a team that will give him that chance.
     
  28. Tokyo Sox

    Tokyo Sox Baka Gaijin Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    That's a pretty interesting point. Lack of downside creates opportunities for abuse. Hopefully Ohtani himself is smart enough to see through it or at least know his limitations.

    Totally agree with this read, if he goes to the AL of course.
     
  29. crow216

    crow216 Dragon Wangler SoSH Member

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    I wonder if his recovery time from starts will need to be increased the more he hits. Taking swings every day, doing bp work, and worrying about hitting and pitching mechanics seems like an awful lot to think about and recover from physically.
     
  30. BCsMightyJoeYoung

    BCsMightyJoeYoung Member SoSH Member

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    Mentioned this on the main board. He could actually start games as a DH and then come in to pitch as a reliever. Certainly out of the box deployment of a unique asset.
     
  31. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    He has done it in the Japanese league, although he has been so young that they haven't pushed him but in his 21 year old season (2016) he pitched 140 innings (20 starts) and had 382 PAs, he was named both the top pitcher and DH in the league, a 1.86 ERA and a 1.004 OPS.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=otani-000sho
     
  32. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    Not so fast says the mlbpa
     
  33. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Tony Clark is awful. The time to fight this fight was when the CBA negotiations were under way. He didn't look ahead and see this then, so he's throwing a fit now. He got absolutely rolled in these negotiations.
     
  34. BoSox Rule

    BoSox Rule Member SoSH Member

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    It’s still amazing to me that anyone agreed to subject legit professional players to the same rules as a 16 year old IFA when teams are willing to pay $20 million just to pay them, and if Ohtani were posted under the old rules I think his posting fee would approach or break $100 million. Weird to say, but Daisuke was 10 years ago already.
     
  35. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    On a more general note, the MLBPA needs to figure out how to more closely link performance and salary as players continue to get younger, maybe insist on years of team control once a guy is up go down from 6 to 4 or 5 and maybe be willing to strike over that or something else in that direction. They think they are protecting veterans' salaries but all they will end up doing is shortening guys' careers in favor of the next underpaid young guy in line. It's really unhealthy for the sport, and it should have been addressed last CBA but Clark botched it catastrophically as Snod said and now they are stuck in this system through 2021, awful.

    As for Otani, he was obviously coming pretty soon when the CBA was bargained, everyone was surprised no specific exception was made then, so not sure what the MLBPA is magically expecting like a year later when the situation is exactly the same as everyone expected.
     
  36. soxhop411

    soxhop411 Member SoSH Member

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    If no deal is reached by Monday he won’t be posted

     
  37. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    The Mariners just traded for international slot money from the White Sox.
     
  38. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    They only got 500K for their 8th best prospect (according to mlb.com) and they're still only around $1.5M, maybe more deals to come?

    Jonathan Mayo‏Verified account @JonathanMayo 1h1 hour ago

    The @Mariners are getting $500K from @whitesox in Vieira deal. Prepping for an Ohtani bid? Now have $1.5575 mil to offer (M's have spent $3.9425 mil of $5.5 mil total pool)
     
  39. ThePrideofShiner

    ThePrideofShiner spooky action from a distance SoSH Member

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    Well, the Mariners 8th best prospect isn't comparable to the Yankees'. The M's system is gutted, but I do wonder if they will keep trying to get more to go after Ohtani.
     
  40. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    This is something I hadn't thought of before. He is only going to pitch 6 or 7 innings in most ball games, so that leaves 2-3 innings of play without a DH, more if the game goes into extras.
     
  41. Wingack

    Wingack Yankee Mod Dope SoSH Member

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    I wouldn't have him hit the day he is pitching.
     
  42. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Member

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    Funny, I’d think the exact opposite. Assuming he’s a starter, I’d think he’d hit when he pitches, just as NL pitchers do. Then he’d DH on 2-3 non-pitching days depending days off, matchups and needed rest. If he’s a reliever, the options are kinda mind-boggling.
     
  43. EddieYost

    EddieYost has a special friend in GHoff SoSH Member

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    The problem with that is as soon as he stops pitching in a game you lose the DH. The new pitcher has to hit or be PH for.
     
  44. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    I don't think losing the DH in the middle innings is a big deal, you just manage the rest of the game like a NL game and the spot only comes up once or twice unless the game goes extra innings. Girardi did this a bunch of times and it never ended up as a problem that I can remember.
     
  45. dhappy42

    dhappy42 Member

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    Yes, and subbing in a DH in latter innings might be an advantage in some circumstances, if the team has lefty-righty options on the bench.
     
  46. MikeM

    MikeM Member SoSH Member

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    Outside speculating it strictly through a better case scenario lens, my guess would be that there is just too many added variable possibilities involved with letting Ohtani DH on the day he pitches. From what I can gather about how pitchers are generally approaching their in-between start routines nowadays, I'd also assume sitting the day after would be a given as well (which ends up being dedicated strictly to whatever weight lighting/ workout routine they employ).

    So yeah, I would I'd be fairly surprised to see a DH plan be any more aggressive then day 2/3/4.
     
  47. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    11,000
    If the Res sox have money left, trading it for a decent prospect might be a better use of it that hoping Otani will take a couple hundred grand from them rather than a couple million from someone else.
     
  48. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He bats left handed so you could platoon him with Hanley. Of course, it wouldn't be a strict platoon. Double bonus of keeping Hanley under 500 PA.
     
  49. StuckOnYouk

    StuckOnYouk Member SoSH Member

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    Thats in interesting point - is that money valuable at all anymore? At this point between now and the start of the new influx of Int'l free agent spending is anyone good left ?Can you carry unused money forward? If not, I wonder if a team like Texas or Seattle or whomever would want our money for a decent prospect.
     
  50. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    There are guys still out there, for whatever reason. 4 of BA's top 50 from last summer are unsigned on their list, there's the kid the Twins just pulled their $3M offer to because he failed his eyesight test (???), and there may be some Braves prospects back on the market once their discipline comes down.
     

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