Chris Capuano Signed: Discussion Thread

AbbyNoho · Feb 18, 2014

That's West Springfield, buster.

mt8thsw9th · Feb 19, 2014

On the other hand, it's Springfield, so no one cares.

PrimusSucks626 · Feb 19, 2014

mt8thsw9th said:
On the other hand, it's Springfield, so no one cares.

As a Springfield native, the truth of this statement hurts.

The Gray Eagle · Feb 19, 2014

I hereby dub him SOCC: Springfield's Own Chris Capuano.

SOCC to the Sox? He'd probably get socked around a lot in the AL East.

mauf · Feb 20, 2014

Capuano's SIERA the past two seasons has been roughly the same as Jon Lester's. Differences in age, durability and competition obviously make Lester, by far, the better pitcher of the two, but if most of us think Lester deserves a long-term deal worth close to $20mm a year, surely Capuano would be a nice addition on a one-year deal for something like Pierzynski money.

Joshv02 · Feb 20, 2014

Capuano had his one year $7mm option (well, it was $8mm, but there was a $1mm buy-out, so the margin was $7mm) declined. If he were to sign for something close to that, he would have had trade value with a subsidized contract. So, assuming just a tiny bit of rationality, I'd expect him to sign for something like less-than $3mm guaranteed with a chance to make $7ish after incentives (teams often give a player a chance to make what they would have had the option been granted, just restructured with less team risk).

mauf · Feb 20, 2014

Joshv02 said:
Capuano had his one year $7mm option (well, it was $8mm, but there was a $1mm buy-out, so the margin was $7mm) declined. If he were to sign for something close to that, he would have had trade value with a subsidized contract. So, assuming just a tiny bit of rationality, I'd expect him to sign for something like less-than $3mm guaranteed with a chance to make $7ish after incentives (teams often give a player a chance to make what they would have had the option been granted, just restructured with less team risk).

You may be right about Capuano's market value, but the Dodgers' decision to decline his option isn't that instructive.

Picking up a player's option, then paying a subsidy to move him in a trade, is unlikely to be a good use of resources for a team that is over the CBT threshold. And that's without considering the risk that a player's trade market won't develop as expected. So unless Capuano was clearly worth more than the option price (and we agree that he's wasn't), declining the option was the right call for LA, unless they wanted to bring him back. On that score, the Dodgers are clearly moving in a different direction. They filled Capuano's role with Paul Maholm -- who is less talented, but cheaper (even by your estimate of Capuano's market value) and more durable. Maybe the Dodgers wanted someone more reliable in that role, or maybe they aren't cavalier about the budget when they're filling out the back end of the roster. Or maybe they're just bearish on Capuano. We don't know.

Corsi · Feb 20, 2014

Cafardo:

https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/436553122404917248

jimbobim · Feb 20, 2014

Mr.Capuano seems like he likes to win and knows pitchers are fragile.

Corsi · Feb 20, 2014

Cherington indicates the #redsox are close to signing a veteran starter. Capuano would seem like a likely candidate.

https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/436554870611386368

jimbobim · Feb 20, 2014

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/explaining-the-chris-capuano-bargain/

encouraging breakdown

Joshv02 · Feb 20, 2014

mabrowndog said:
Yeah, I think a 3M base with a 7M ceiling is way above what the market calls for, especially with a glut of similarly fungible swing starters still on the market.

Perhaps. Maholm signed for $1.5mm with another $5mm in incentives; Capuano is pretty similar, so I'd expect something around those lines (I just bumped it up by ~$1mm).

mauf · Feb 20, 2014

Joshv02 said:
Perhaps. Maholm signed for $1.5mm with another $5mm in incentives; Capuano is pretty similar, so I'd expect something around those lines (I just bumped it up by ~$1mm).

For budget purposes, the FO has to assume those incentives will be earned -- the Sox won't risk exceeding the CBT threshold because Chris Capuano had a good year. From a fan's perspective, the only benefit of an incentive-laden deal is that it might free up cash for a midseason move if it's clear by then that some/all of the incentives won't be earned.

So I guess I'm saying there's little difference (again, from a fan's perspective) between the Maholm deal and what I called "Pierzynski money" above.

RedOctober3829 · Feb 20, 2014

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 17s
capuano gets MLB deal for $2.25M base with performance bonuses to take it to $5M. #redsox

Comeback Kid · Feb 20, 2014

Signed. Terms not yet disclosed.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/02/pitcher_chris_capuano_signs_wi.html

Edit: Beaten to the punch. With terms, too!

RedOctober3829 · Feb 20, 2014

David Cameron ‏@DCameronFG 41s
$2.3M for Capuano is hilarious. 29 teams just missed the boat.

AlNipper49 · Feb 20, 2014

changing title to reflect signing

AlNipper49 · Feb 20, 2014

https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/436572115312312320

alwyn96 · Feb 20, 2014

Hot damn. Even $5M seems incredibly cheap for a basically average SP. The starting pitching market is really weird.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Feb 20, 2014

I love this deal. A LHP who has averaged 1.6 fWAR over the last three years and had a 3.67 xFIP last year for $2.3M is a steal and effectively exchanging him for Dempster at $13M is a huge win.

Corsi · Feb 20, 2014

Edes is saying minor league deal:

The Boston Red Sox on Thursday agreed with left-hander Chris Capuano on a one-year minor league deal that includes an invitation to major league camp, according to a league source.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10490483/boston-red-sox-chris-capuano-agree-deal?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Rasputin · Feb 20, 2014

So we might actually have three lefties in the pen?

Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Capuano, Badenhop.

I like the depth. I like the flexibility.

There's a decent chance this pitching staff is completely boneriffic.

mauf · Feb 20, 2014

Corsi said:
Edes is saying minor league deal:

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10490483/boston-red-sox-chris-capuano-agree-deal?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

If true, this gives them the flexibility to stash him in Pawtucket for a month if all five starters are healthy heading into Opening Day. If the Sox were Capuano's first choice, I can see why he wouldn't let a few bus rides break the deal.

If everyone's healthy on the position player side, swapping Dempster for Capuano on an MiL deal also gives them the option of getting by with 11 pitchers for a couple weeks until they get past all the April off days, which would allow them to avoid choosing between optioning JBJ and releasing Sizemore (or trading Carp at a fire-sale price).

Rasputin · Feb 20, 2014

maufman said:
If true, this gives them the flexibility to stash him in Pawtucket for a month if all five starters are healthy heading into Opening Day. If the Sox were Capuano's first choice, I can see why he wouldn't let a few bus rides break the deal.

If everyone's healthy on the position player side, swapping Dempster for Capuano on an MiL deal also gives them the option of getting by with 11 pitchers for a couple weeks until they get past all the April off days, which would allow them to avoid choosing between optioning JBJ and releasing Sizemore (or trading Carp at a fire-sale price).

Don't these contracts all come with an opt out now? When's that, May? June?

The guy is 35. It's hard to imagine him sticking around in the minors all that long. A couple weeks, sure. A couple months, not so much.

Joshv02 · Feb 20, 2014

Rasputin said:
Don't these contracts all come with an opt out now? When's that, May? June?

The guy is 35. It's hard to imagine him sticking around in the minors all that long. A couple weeks, sure. A couple months, not so much.

The CBA provides a roster bonus of $100k on opening day (if not released), and an opt-out on 6/1. But, he'd negotiate a better deal than that (though I doubt its a minor league deal unless his meds are terrible) with multiple opt-outs.

mauf · Feb 20, 2014

Rasputin said:
Don't these contracts all come with an opt out now? When's that, May? June?

The guy is 35. It's hard to imagine him sticking around in the minors all that long. A couple weeks, sure. A couple months, not so much.

I was assuming a May 1 opt-out. They're going to want to carry 12 pitchers by then anyway.

nattysez · Feb 20, 2014

Law's not a fan, but I think his analysis ignores that using SOCC as a long-man/middle-innings lefty could make him pretty valuable given his effectiveness v. lefties:

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 1h
$2.9 million for Chris Capuano in the AL East? No, thanks.

Sky Kalkman ‏@Sky_Kalkman 58m
@keithlaw Why is a pitcher worth less in a more difficult division? I get that teams have to be better to compete, but value is value, no?
keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 56m
@Sky_Kalkman Stuff failing to translate against better competition.
Sky Kalkman ‏@Sky_Kalkman 7m
@keithlaw Is it something specifically about Capuano that doesn't translate or do most fringe pitchers not translate?
keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 4m

@Sky_Kalkman Both apply here, IMO. Don't see giving him a roster spot.

AbbyNoho · Feb 20, 2014

I'm not sure I agree with Law here. As a primary part of the rotation starter, sure, I wouldn't have much hope of success for him at this point, but he's a spot starter or middle reliever, there's no reason to think he can't have success in that role. We've seen plenty of marginal starters turn into serviceable relievers and he did have success in that role in a brief stint with the Dodgers last year.

I'm probably biased posting from Western Mass, but I hope he manages to make the team out of spring training.

Toe Nash · Feb 20, 2014

Also, he doesn't have to face the best-hitting AL East team and the Yankees offense is a shell of its former self, unless Ellsbury singlehandedly changes the balance. There are some excellent hitters and it's probably better than the NL West (no pitchers, of course), but the offenses in the East aren't really that scary.

foulkehampshire · Feb 20, 2014

Capuano is probably overexposed as a SP. But then again, he's not really being asked to be one.

Decent control, LH, ground-ball sinker type. I have a hard time seeing the signing as negative, given the price.

inoffensiv philosophy · Feb 20, 2014

Dunno how good Capuano would be in a starting role (and he probably wouldn't stay healthy for a full season in that role), but leading off the tweet with "$2.9 milion for..." as thought that matters in the slightest to the Red Sox is sort of funny. It's $2.9MM!! It's not the like the Sox are bumping their heads against the luxury tax. They'll be paying more to Adrian Gonzalez this season! This isn't the 1990s...

Doug Beerabelli · Feb 20, 2014

Rico Brogna is from Watertown, CT.

judyb · Feb 20, 2014

Dunno how good Capuano would be in a starting role (and he probably wouldn't stay healthy for a full season in that role), but leading off the tweet with "$2.9 milion for..." as thought that matters in the slightest to the Red Sox is sort of funny. It's $2.9MM!! It's not the like the Sox are bumping their heads against the luxury tax. They'll be paying more to Adrian Gonzalez this season! This isn't the 1990s...

I don't even know where he got $2.9 million, everyone else seems to have it at $2.25 million, which is barely more than they're paying Burke Badenhop.

Harry Hooper · Feb 20, 2014

Regarding concerns about the luxury tax level, Henry's recent comments are worth noting:

Henry does not necessarily regard the $189 million luxury tax threshold as a ceiling for the Red Sox, however.

"It has been," he said. "There's some reason to believe it may not be as important as we thought a couple of years ago. We feel at that level, we're at the top or near the top [of payroll]."

Under the terms of baseball's latest collective bargaining agreement, teams under the threshold were eligible for significant rebates in revenue-sharing payments. But Henry said he questioned at the time how beneficial that was and that his projections were accurate.

"There were certain incentives built into the season that at the time I doubted they would really carry the day and that appears to be the case. They probably won't," he said.

jimbobim · Feb 20, 2014

Law is really nitpicking here. 2 million and change and a roster spot for some depth and spot starts ? That's a joke.

Look at his evaluation of the Victorino deal.Safe to say there is a reason Cherington is still making decisions and Law is doing a slightly better job then the incompetent Bowden on the outside looking in.

nattysez · Feb 20, 2014

jimbobim said:
Law is really nitpicking here. 2 million and change and a roster spot for some depth and spot starts ? That's a joke.

Look at his evaluation of the Victorino deal.Safe to say there is a reason Cherington is still making decisions and Law is doing a slightly better job then the incompetent Bowden on the outside looking in.

Mini-thread hijack: so here is what Law said about Victorino. Most importantly:

That's a .244/.311/.390 composite line over 1,388 plate appearances, and at age 32 he's extremely unlikely to suddenly learn how to hit from the left side. Victorino delivers the bulk of his value in the 150 or so plate appearances he gets against left-handed pitching each year and should be platooned against most right-handers, which means the Red Sox just paid $13 million a year for the equivalent of a fourth outfielder.

What Law didn't count on was that rather than "leaning to hit from the left side," Victorino started hitting righty against RHP. As a LHH v. RHP, his numbers were largely in-line with his career numbers: .274/.317/.389. But in 100 AB as a RHH v. RHP, he put up .300/.386/.510.

No Guru No Method · Feb 20, 2014

Keith Law only has to be interesting - not right. He often fails at both.

benhogan · Feb 20, 2014

Rasputin said:
So we might actually have three lefties in the pen?

Uehara, Mujica, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Capuano, Badenhop.

I like the depth. I like the flexibility.

There's a decent chance this pitching staff is completely boneriffic.

3 lefties in the pen? Yankee/Red Sox games just got 15 minutes longer.

But agree, have to like that balance in the pen.

inoffensiv philosophy · Feb 20, 2014

No Guru No Method said:
Keith Law only has to be interesting - not right. He often fails at both.

It's interesting to compare Law's deep concern about the Red Sox making a 1/2.something deal for a veteran, injury-prone, but sometimes productive lefty pitcher with Joe Sheehan's remark on one of the last R&J podcasts that he doesn't really care about dollar values for free agency signings, only years.

Neither Sheehan's view nor the one Law implies is totally right I think (Sheehan's is somewhat internally inconsistent -- presumably if you care about the length of contracts then you recognise that at some point the number of guaranteed dollars can become an issue -- but it might be one of those overstatement-to-make-a-good-but-nonintuitive-point deals). But I think analysts have to move on from just being like 'well, what is the probability that player x will provide y of value over the z years of his contract?' because I don't think that's how teams make decisions or how they should make decisions, or how converting dollahz into value works, especially not in baseball's bizzaro version of The Current Economic Climate. I mean, good analysts probably already do do this.

Rasputin · Feb 20, 2014

benhogan said:
3 lefties in the pen? Yankee/Red Sox games just got 15 minutes longer.

But agree, have to like that balance in the pen.

Imagine a scenario where Tanaka turns out to be Dice-K 2.0 and he goes up against Doubront in a game where we get bad Doubront and after three hours, we're in the fifth and both pitchers are over 100 pitches thrown.

Good times, man, good times.

Sampo Gida · Feb 20, 2014

Toe Nash said:
Also, he doesn't have to face the best-hitting AL East team and the Yankees offense is a shell of its former self, unless Ellsbury singlehandedly changes the balance. There are some excellent hitters and it's probably better than the NL West (no pitchers, of course), but the offenses in the East aren't really that scary.

Maybe not scary but the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays all could have above average AL offenses if they are healthy. The parks in the AL East and Fenway are also a bit more hitters parks than the NL West and LAD's park. As a general rule of thumb NL SP'ers experience around a 0.5 jump in their ERA in coming to the AL.

Soft tossing lefties don't generally experience success in Fenway so lets hope he won't get many starts

Devizier · Feb 20, 2014

I like Capuano at that price. Given his age and injury history, I wouldn't expect more than 100 or so decent innings, but those could come in awfully handy over the course of a season. I like the option of having him as a sinkerballing middle reliever out of the pen, too, maybe one particularly useful against LHH with runners on 1B.

snowmanny · Feb 20, 2014

Sampo Gida said:
Maybe not scary but the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays all could have above average AL offenses if they are healthy. The parks in the AL East and Fenway are also a bit more hitters parks than the NL West and LAD's park. As a general rule of thumb NL SP'ers experience around a 0.5 jump in their ERA in coming to the AL.

Soft tossing lefties don't generally experience success in Fenway so lets hope he won't get many starts

He faced the AL East last year, got rocked by Tampa and Toronto, and pitched an OK 5 innings against Boston. He pitched six shutout innings in Yankee Stadium.

mauf · Feb 20, 2014

Sampo Gida said:
Maybe not scary but the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays all could have above average AL offenses if they are healthy. The parks in the AL East and Fenway are also a bit more hitters parks than the NL West and LAD's park. As a general rule of thumb NL SP'ers experience around a 0.5 jump in their ERA in coming to the AL.

Soft tossing lefties don't generally experience success in Fenway so lets hope he won't get many starts

Capuano is 35 years old and has thrown 1200+ innings in The Show; we don't have to project his performance based on velocity and subjective assessments of "stuff." In 9 major-league seasons (not all of them full ones), Capuano has never failed to post an above-average SwStk%. For all the AL East talk here, you would think he posted those numbers in the Eastern League instead of the National League.

Capuano's actual performance falls short of his peripherals often enough that we should probably expect that to happen. And we certainly shouldn't expect him to be healthy enough to throw 180-200 innings, even if there's enough work for him to get that opportunity. But the way we're focusing on his flaws, you would think the Sox were paying him like Homer Bailey.

What kind of pitcher do you expect to get for the money he's getting?? This is a terrific value signing, and probably an upgrade on Dempster even ignoring the difference in dollars.

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