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Celtics Regular Season thread

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bosox79, Oct 29, 2016.

  1. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    7,087
    Seems to me that, since they have the luxury to do so, they are getting him back to 100% before he returns. After watching guys play at 75% last year in the playoffs, and the depth of this team, there is no reason to rush him back.
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    19,728
    Playing at a 60+ win pace over the last 30 or games.

    Eight of next 11 on the road. If they're still hanging around the Cavs at that point, this gets interesting.
     
    #202 DrewDawg, Feb 14, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2017
  3. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    4,952
    Kelly is 13 & 6.5 in his last 10 on 23 mpg; per 36 that is right around 20/10. Not bad
     
  4. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    16,774
    Marcus Smart, who really deserves his own thread, had eight steals tonight. The last person to have that many steals was Rondo almost six full years ago. Before that you have to go back to 1999 when the Truth did it. Before that, you have to go back to Bird who did it twice in 1985-86 and once in 1986-87.
     
  5. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    3,359
    IT, when asked after the game if he thought he could catch Wesbrook for the scoring title, said "Yeah, I think I can do that."
    This is getting ridiculous. In a virtual tie for Larry Bird in points per game?
    On the radio tonight it was said that there are 31 instances of a Celtic having 8 or more made free throws in a game this season. IT - 31; rest of the team - 0.
    What is going on here?
     
  6. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    240
    Video Game Mode - it's stupid. Smart also had Video Game Mode enabled last night - some of those eight steals were unfair. He must be terrifying to to face as an equal sized player, but if you are smaller you must wet yourself.


     
  7. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    27,184
    From the "Things that Make You Go Ewww" department, you can match up his sudden improvement to when he switched his hairstyle to the Man Bun.
     
  8. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    12,575
    They are going to have a very difficult decision on Olynyk next year. If they sign him or even qualify him, it takes them out of the top free agent market. And, with his skill set, he'll be highly sought after as a FA and will get paid, if not by the Celtics then by another team.

    I kind of wonder if they should start him now, see what he gives them (or fails to) as a full time player.
     
  9. teddykgb

    teddykgb Member SoSH Member

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    5,561
    This is the really hard part. They've hidden him so much through the years and he always goes through good spurts where he gets spot minutes against the right matchups but they really have never had to see if he could answer the bell for extended minutes every night regardless of matchup.
     
  10. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    2,587
    He's really stepped up since Bradley went down. The problem is, when they're on the floor together with IT, the Celtics are getting smoked. Brad's going to have some interesting decisions to make once Bradley gets healthy.
     
  11. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    3,213
    That's kinda the catch though, right? With the new structure, is it likely that we're going to be able to land anyone of substance? Odds are that Hayward, Griffin, etc. aren't going to leave tens of millions on the table to switch teams. Big ticket free agents might be off the table for awhile, and it's why I am coming around the idea to someone like Melo (if available for little in the way of assets) since I'm not sure where else the money will go. I think Scal or someone made the point - maybe Brad can convince him to play like he does in the Olympics.

    With that said, I'm pretty much fine with no moves and/or resigning Kelly, I just have no expectation of making a play in FA this year.
     
  12. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    1,227
    Yeah, that threesome is just too height-challenged, although I wonder whether adding Olynyk and Horford to that trio could work. I don't think Brad's used that lineup often. It would certainly be a good shooting line-up. Depending on the athleticism of the other team's 4 and 5, it might work defensively, or at least not be horrible.

    Mainly, I think he needs to rotate those 3 through the two guard spots, with Smart getting some occasional match-ups against smaller 3s.
     
  13. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    1,374
    Agreed, Kelly should have a thread as well, performance as well as what it will take to extend them.

    What can we expect to see Marcus get extended at this offseason? Take the class before him, a much worse draft class but still some good comps. Would Marcus be the Jimmy Butler type player who bets on himself and forgoes even RFA in summer 2018? Looking for Max in 2019 summer? Doubtful since there is so much money out there.

    Looking at the below comps of players signed this past summer to extensions what can we expect to see for Marcus?

    Pick 2 - Victor Oladipo - 4/84
    Pick 3 - Otto Porter - To be RFA
    Pick 4 - Cody Zeller 4/56
    Pick 5 - Ben McLemore
    Pick 6 - Nerlens Noel to be RFA
    Pick 7 - KCP to be RFA
    Pick 10 - CJ McCollum - 4/106
    Pick 12 - Steven Adams 4/100
    Pick 13- Kelly - to be RFA
    Pick 15 - Giannias 4/100
    Pick 16 - Schroder - To be RFA
    Pick 27 - Rudy Gobert 4/102

    There won't be as much "crazy/stupid" money thrown around this summer to restricted and unrestricted free agents as there was last year with the cap increase. But I would expect them to be similar. Marcus is probably in the Oladipo range. But could be up there with CJ. And, wow, Giannis is underpaid.
     
  14. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    5,530
    Can't they qualify him and still play the FA game? Walking away from Amir, Jerebko, and Zeller frees up a lot of money. I also think it's likely Avery Bradley gets moved at some point (he seems like the most likely odd man out out of the IT/Smart/Bradley three-choose-two they have). Extending a QO doesn't take that much and wouldn't conflict with signing, say, Hayward and then going over the cap to keep Olynyk and extend Smart. I haven't carefully gone over the numbers, so if someone tells me I'm wrong, I'll believe them. The big thing to note is that a casual glance might not show that Zeller isn't actually on the books for next year, which gives them 25 million off the top in expiring money. The cap is expected to grow to $102 million, which is a pretty big jump too. It looks to me like they can easily spend around $30 million on a free agent if the right opportunity exists and still keep everyone except the vet role players.
     
  15. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    11,436
    I agree it looks like those three are worse than the sum of their parts. From NBAwowy:

    Smart/Thomas/Bradley together score 110.9/100 possessions, and allow 114.8/100 possessions (net -3.9)
    Smart/Thomas without Bradley are net +9.3.
    Bradley/Thomas without Smart are net +2.3
    Bradley/Smart without Thomas are net +1.1

    The fact that the unit without Bradley is amazing does tend to confirm my suspicion that Bradley is the most expendable of the three.
     
  16. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    3,164
    Someone on this board mentioned it last year I think, but an Avery Bradley+ for Khris Middleton would make sense for both teams. That was before Middleton's injury though, nevermind Jabari's. Not sure what the plus would be either. Offensively, they are about the same with Middleton being the better passer and more room for growth. Defensively, the 6'8 Middleton at SG matches up with Smart and IT much better.

    If Middleton makes a full recovery, would people trade Avery and Jaylen Brown for him? Would the Bucks?

    Re Olynyk, he's basically been the same player is whole career and is going on 26 years old. Usually if players make the jump it's at 24 or 25. When his shots are falling, he looks like a guy who could play 30 minutes a night. When his shot isn't falling (December), people are calling him the biggest bust that ever did bust. He's a 7 footer who can stretch the floor and is going to get paid. Not sure if it will be the Celtics paying him but he does offer a unique skill set no one else on the C's offers.

    Re Smart, he's been improving as the season goes along and is going on 23 years old. In 27 games since 12/23, he's at .393/.358/.837 11.6ppg, 5.0apg, 3.7rpg 2.2spg in 32.1mpg. The .358 from 3 is 38-106 shooting. I'm biased against guards who can't shoot and because of this I tend to underrate them, but if he's hitting on 35% of his 3's, Marcus Smart is a stud.
     
  17. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    12,575
    Agree completely. Bradley ought to have tremendous value to the right team, though. (Basically anyone with a PG who can guard 2s and a need for shooting and man D against PGs).
     
  18. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    10,164
    I think those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being - the three were regularly getting smoked in the early going when the Cs were playing poorly and I'm pretty sure we discussed this a bit in one of these threads. As the Cs have been playing almost lights out in the time AB has been injured (causation or correlation?), the numbers without Bradley are going to be skewed.

    It will be interesting to see what happens when AB comes back.
     
  19. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    10,164
    Olynyk didn't shoot for 6 months because of his shoulder injury and it's taken him some time to get his shot back. He's been shooting better in recent weeks and hopefully this keeps up.

    BTW, DA has refused to make a trade for any old rim protector because because having skilled bigs like Al and KO open up the inside for IT and is the major reason they are doing so well on offense this year. In fact, he's willing to sacrifice defense and rebounding to ensure the maximum space for IT. So KO plays a really important role for the Cs.

    Not sure what's that is going to translate to on the open market, but I think he's undervalued by people around here.
     
  20. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    3,164
    Probably somewhere in the range of what Biyombo and Monroe got despite being a very different player. Seems the going rate for 20-25 minute a night bigs.

    KO is the new Rondo in terms of differing opinions though.
     
  21. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    3,359
     
  22. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    3,164
    It's been the last 19 games. .609/.460/.645. Or you can remove the 3 game stretch from 12/7 to 12/11 where he went .348/.083/.750 and his season over the course of 46 games reads as .527/.401/.676. The tale of 3 games. His 2FG% this year is way up over last year and in his last 17 games he's grabbing 6.2 rebounds in 22.9 minutes. That's 9.75 per 36. His career rate is 8.10.

    He had a terrible December regardless but those 3 games didn't help. Outside of those 3, he actually shot really well but looked lost and had less of a role in the offense. He played 4 1/2 less minutes than any other month and taking 2 less shots. Without those 3 games in Dec: .610/.423/.684.

    By Month
    Nov .471/.381/.875 FGA 7.3 MPG 23.2
    Dec .610/.423/.684 (.425/.308/.692 actual line) FGA 5.4 MPG 18.2
    Jan .584/.405/.652 FGA 7.2 MPG 22.7
    Feb .587/.429/.643 FGA 9.0 MPG 22.6
     
  23. the moops

    the moops lurker

    Messages:
    260
    With Jabari going down, I could maybe sort of see a Brown for Middleton straight up deal (with appropriate salary coming from BOS as well). Without Jabari going down, I could have seen a Bradley for Middletone straight up.

    I can't see any scenario where BOS gives up both Bradley and Brown unless someone a lot better than Middleton is coming back.
     
  24. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    3,164
    Maybe both is too much, but Jaylen Brown alone is way too little. If Jaylen turned into Middleton, we'd all be ecstatic. That's close to best case scenario. Of course I think Middleton is better than Jabari Parker so there's that. I also think he could take yet another step forward offensively like he did last year. It would be AB+ or JB+ at the least. Or maybe I'm just a Middleton fanboy but if he's fully healthy he's one of the most underrated players in the league and would fill a huge need for the Celtics.
     
  25. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    5,530
    Meh, I think Middleton and Bradley are more or less comparable players. I'm not sure I'd trade Jaylen for either, although I wouldn't think someone was crazy to want to do so for either. His "improvement" last year was mostly just getting more minutes. I think there's a reasonable chance that Jaylen Brown won't ever be as good as either Middleton or Bradley, but his ceiling is still being a true impact player, whereas Middleton and Bradley are just solid role players. As far as the current Celtics, they really don't need another perimeter role player. The only 1-3 position talent they should be looking to add is an elite player. Middleton wouldn't move the needle as far as how good this Celtics team is.
     
  26. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    11,436
    I think that's selling Middleton well short. Bradley is a pretty seriously flawed player who only works in certain contexts. He's too small to be a plus defender against SGs, and can't initiate the offense well enough to be a primary point. He's a good fit on the Celtics, who can cover up a lot of his flaws, but they're limiting all the same.

    Middleton doesn't have any of those issues. He's got ideal size, can defend multiple positions, is as good or better a shooter as Bradley, is a better passer. Middleton isn't the best player on a championship team, but he's a lot more than a role player (20th in RPM last year for instance).
     
  27. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    5,530
    They are similar shooters, Bradley is a much better rebounder (as of this year), Middleton is a much better passer, and both players defend two positions. They aren't the same player, and Middleton has been more consistently the quality of player that Bradley is this year, but I don't see a clear reason to think of Middleton as much more than a slight upgrade who is a 2/3 instead of a 1/2 (in Bradley's case, the 1 only applies on the defensive end).
     
  28. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,556
    Middleton is a much better player.

    Everyone thinks of Bradley as this scrappy ball-hawk, and it's true that when he's pressuring ball-handlers he's really good -- but he barely does that at all anymore. As for off-ball defense, he gets caught ball-watching all the time. I've been watching Bradley get killed on back-cuts for forever now. And it's really hard for him to close-out well because of his size. In a switchy defense, it's really hard for him to be valuable. It doesn't help that he's got an inflated sense of his own usefulness on that end.

    And offensively, Middleton is just a way better player. He gets to the line more, he's a better 3 point shooter for his career, and while Bradley has improved hugely as a shooter and as a ball handler, the guy cannot pass. At all.

    And the rebound thing is just scheme. It's not like Bradley is ripping down 3 or 4 offensive rebounds a game. Our bigs are terrible rebounders, so they have to rely on guards crashing while they box out.
     
  29. CreedBratton

    CreedBratton Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    942
    I'd trade Bradley for Middleton in a heartbeat
     
  30. Light-Tower-Power

    Light-Tower-Power Member SoSH Member

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