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Celtics Regular Season thread

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by bosox79, Oct 29, 2016.

  1. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    7,171
    Seems to me that, since they have the luxury to do so, they are getting him back to 100% before he returns. After watching guys play at 75% last year in the playoffs, and the depth of this team, there is no reason to rush him back.
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    21,184
    Playing at a 60+ win pace over the last 30 or games.

    Eight of next 11 on the road. If they're still hanging around the Cavs at that point, this gets interesting.
     
    #202 DrewDawg, Feb 14, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2017
  3. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    5,357
    Kelly is 13 & 6.5 in his last 10 on 23 mpg; per 36 that is right around 20/10. Not bad
     
  4. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    17,446
    Marcus Smart, who really deserves his own thread, had eight steals tonight. The last person to have that many steals was Rondo almost six full years ago. Before that you have to go back to 1999 when the Truth did it. Before that, you have to go back to Bird who did it twice in 1985-86 and once in 1986-87.
     
  5. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    3,527
    IT, when asked after the game if he thought he could catch Wesbrook for the scoring title, said "Yeah, I think I can do that."
    This is getting ridiculous. In a virtual tie for Larry Bird in points per game?
    On the radio tonight it was said that there are 31 instances of a Celtic having 8 or more made free throws in a game this season. IT - 31; rest of the team - 0.
    What is going on here?
     
  6. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    254
    Video Game Mode - it's stupid. Smart also had Video Game Mode enabled last night - some of those eight steals were unfair. He must be terrifying to to face as an equal sized player, but if you are smaller you must wet yourself.


     
  7. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    28,086
    From the "Things that Make You Go Ewww" department, you can match up his sudden improvement to when he switched his hairstyle to the Man Bun.
     
  8. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    2,729
    He's really stepped up since Bradley went down. The problem is, when they're on the floor together with IT, the Celtics are getting smoked. Brad's going to have some interesting decisions to make once Bradley gets healthy.
     
  9. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

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    1,279
    Yeah, that threesome is just too height-challenged, although I wonder whether adding Olynyk and Horford to that trio could work. I don't think Brad's used that lineup often. It would certainly be a good shooting line-up. Depending on the athleticism of the other team's 4 and 5, it might work defensively, or at least not be horrible.

    Mainly, I think he needs to rotate those 3 through the two guard spots, with Smart getting some occasional match-ups against smaller 3s.
     
  10. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed, Kelly should have a thread as well, performance as well as what it will take to extend them.

    What can we expect to see Marcus get extended at this offseason? Take the class before him, a much worse draft class but still some good comps. Would Marcus be the Jimmy Butler type player who bets on himself and forgoes even RFA in summer 2018? Looking for Max in 2019 summer? Doubtful since there is so much money out there.

    Looking at the below comps of players signed this past summer to extensions what can we expect to see for Marcus?

    Pick 2 - Victor Oladipo - 4/84
    Pick 3 - Otto Porter - To be RFA
    Pick 4 - Cody Zeller 4/56
    Pick 5 - Ben McLemore
    Pick 6 - Nerlens Noel to be RFA
    Pick 7 - KCP to be RFA
    Pick 10 - CJ McCollum - 4/106
    Pick 12 - Steven Adams 4/100
    Pick 13- Kelly - to be RFA
    Pick 15 - Giannias 4/100
    Pick 16 - Schroder - To be RFA
    Pick 27 - Rudy Gobert 4/102

    There won't be as much "crazy/stupid" money thrown around this summer to restricted and unrestricted free agents as there was last year with the cap increase. But I would expect them to be similar. Marcus is probably in the Oladipo range. But could be up there with CJ. And, wow, Giannis is underpaid.
     
  11. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Can't they qualify him and still play the FA game? Walking away from Amir, Jerebko, and Zeller frees up a lot of money. I also think it's likely Avery Bradley gets moved at some point (he seems like the most likely odd man out out of the IT/Smart/Bradley three-choose-two they have). Extending a QO doesn't take that much and wouldn't conflict with signing, say, Hayward and then going over the cap to keep Olynyk and extend Smart. I haven't carefully gone over the numbers, so if someone tells me I'm wrong, I'll believe them. The big thing to note is that a casual glance might not show that Zeller isn't actually on the books for next year, which gives them 25 million off the top in expiring money. The cap is expected to grow to $102 million, which is a pretty big jump too. It looks to me like they can easily spend around $30 million on a free agent if the right opportunity exists and still keep everyone except the vet role players.
     
  12. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I agree it looks like those three are worse than the sum of their parts. From NBAwowy:

    Smart/Thomas/Bradley together score 110.9/100 possessions, and allow 114.8/100 possessions (net -3.9)
    Smart/Thomas without Bradley are net +9.3.
    Bradley/Thomas without Smart are net +2.3
    Bradley/Smart without Thomas are net +1.1

    The fact that the unit without Bradley is amazing does tend to confirm my suspicion that Bradley is the most expendable of the three.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    4,150
    Someone on this board mentioned it last year I think, but an Avery Bradley+ for Khris Middleton would make sense for both teams. That was before Middleton's injury though, nevermind Jabari's. Not sure what the plus would be either. Offensively, they are about the same with Middleton being the better passer and more room for growth. Defensively, the 6'8 Middleton at SG matches up with Smart and IT much better.

    If Middleton makes a full recovery, would people trade Avery and Jaylen Brown for him? Would the Bucks?

    Re Olynyk, he's basically been the same player is whole career and is going on 26 years old. Usually if players make the jump it's at 24 or 25. When his shots are falling, he looks like a guy who could play 30 minutes a night. When his shot isn't falling (December), people are calling him the biggest bust that ever did bust. He's a 7 footer who can stretch the floor and is going to get paid. Not sure if it will be the Celtics paying him but he does offer a unique skill set no one else on the C's offers.

    Re Smart, he's been improving as the season goes along and is going on 23 years old. In 27 games since 12/23, he's at .393/.358/.837 11.6ppg, 5.0apg, 3.7rpg 2.2spg in 32.1mpg. The .358 from 3 is 38-106 shooting. I'm biased against guards who can't shoot and because of this I tend to underrate them, but if he's hitting on 35% of his 3's, Marcus Smart is a stud.
     
  14. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    13,161
    Agree completely. Bradley ought to have tremendous value to the right team, though. (Basically anyone with a PG who can guard 2s and a need for shooting and man D against PGs).
     
  15. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I think those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt for the time being - the three were regularly getting smoked in the early going when the Cs were playing poorly and I'm pretty sure we discussed this a bit in one of these threads. As the Cs have been playing almost lights out in the time AB has been injured (causation or correlation?), the numbers without Bradley are going to be skewed.

    It will be interesting to see what happens when AB comes back.
     
  16. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    3,527
     
  17. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    With Jabari going down, I could maybe sort of see a Brown for Middleton straight up deal (with appropriate salary coming from BOS as well). Without Jabari going down, I could have seen a Bradley for Middletone straight up.

    I can't see any scenario where BOS gives up both Bradley and Brown unless someone a lot better than Middleton is coming back.
     
  18. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Maybe both is too much, but Jaylen Brown alone is way too little. If Jaylen turned into Middleton, we'd all be ecstatic. That's close to best case scenario. Of course I think Middleton is better than Jabari Parker so there's that. I also think he could take yet another step forward offensively like he did last year. It would be AB+ or JB+ at the least. Or maybe I'm just a Middleton fanboy but if he's fully healthy he's one of the most underrated players in the league and would fill a huge need for the Celtics.
     
  19. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    Meh, I think Middleton and Bradley are more or less comparable players. I'm not sure I'd trade Jaylen for either, although I wouldn't think someone was crazy to want to do so for either. His "improvement" last year was mostly just getting more minutes. I think there's a reasonable chance that Jaylen Brown won't ever be as good as either Middleton or Bradley, but his ceiling is still being a true impact player, whereas Middleton and Bradley are just solid role players. As far as the current Celtics, they really don't need another perimeter role player. The only 1-3 position talent they should be looking to add is an elite player. Middleton wouldn't move the needle as far as how good this Celtics team is.
     
  20. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    11,533
    I think that's selling Middleton well short. Bradley is a pretty seriously flawed player who only works in certain contexts. He's too small to be a plus defender against SGs, and can't initiate the offense well enough to be a primary point. He's a good fit on the Celtics, who can cover up a lot of his flaws, but they're limiting all the same.

    Middleton doesn't have any of those issues. He's got ideal size, can defend multiple positions, is as good or better a shooter as Bradley, is a better passer. Middleton isn't the best player on a championship team, but he's a lot more than a role player (20th in RPM last year for instance).
     
  21. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    They are similar shooters, Bradley is a much better rebounder (as of this year), Middleton is a much better passer, and both players defend two positions. They aren't the same player, and Middleton has been more consistently the quality of player that Bradley is this year, but I don't see a clear reason to think of Middleton as much more than a slight upgrade who is a 2/3 instead of a 1/2 (in Bradley's case, the 1 only applies on the defensive end).
     
  22. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

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    2,010
    Middleton is a much better player.

    Everyone thinks of Bradley as this scrappy ball-hawk, and it's true that when he's pressuring ball-handlers he's really good -- but he barely does that at all anymore. As for off-ball defense, he gets caught ball-watching all the time. I've been watching Bradley get killed on back-cuts for forever now. And it's really hard for him to close-out well because of his size. In a switchy defense, it's really hard for him to be valuable. It doesn't help that he's got an inflated sense of his own usefulness on that end.

    And offensively, Middleton is just a way better player. He gets to the line more, he's a better 3 point shooter for his career, and while Bradley has improved hugely as a shooter and as a ball handler, the guy cannot pass. At all.

    And the rebound thing is just scheme. It's not like Bradley is ripping down 3 or 4 offensive rebounds a game. Our bigs are terrible rebounders, so they have to rely on guards crashing while they box out.
     
  23. CreedBratton

    CreedBratton Member SoSH Member

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    1,203
    I'd trade Bradley for Middleton in a heartbeat
     
  24. Light-Tower-Power

    Light-Tower-Power Member SoSH Member

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    3,579
  25. reggiecleveland

    reggiecleveland sublime Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    16,433
    The rebounding is becoming a real concern for me. Outrebounded by 15 vs the Hawks. Not sure what the solutions are, but this is a big weakness. The guys they have are good players, but the bigs all have talents other than rebounding.
     
  26. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    22,296
    Maybe we should have signed Howard instead of Horford?

    (Ducks)
     
  27. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    I don't see how a rebounder helps this team given Stevens' switch heavy defense. Half the problem is that Al ends up guarding smalls and Rozier and IT4 and AB end up guarding bigger guys. Maybe this is just confirmation bias but it seems to me that the Cs only get the rebounds that bounce a few feet from the rim but those that are close are usually gobbled up an opponent's big who is being boxed out by a guard.
     
  28. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope

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    20,332
    I'm smart enough to know I'm attributing improperly, but I hope that the end of the 20 point streak means we don't see too many more nights (or any more) where IT puts up 17 missed FG.
     
  29. ifmanis5

    ifmanis5 Member SoSH Member

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    23,669
    How the Knicks are spending the rest of the season:
     
  30. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    Right? Those are going to happen, but maybe he stops taking unnecessary heat check shots. I'm ok with most of the shots he takes, but contested ones with 15 left on the shot clock drive me nuts.

    Where would the Cs be without him being the one man wrecking crew in the fourth though? 5th seed at the very best, but probably 7th?
     
  31. reggiecleveland

    reggiecleveland sublime Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    16,433
    A guy that wins more of 50/50 balls, gets more of boards, would change the balance a bit. But, perhaps Brad has to make some adjustments to rebound better.
     
  32. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Shawn Bradley? I feel the same way about guards who can't shoot that you do about Kelly O so it's taken me awhile to warm up to Marcus Smart. I constantly underrate him but now I'm starting to believe Smart has an actual chance of improving his 3 point shot and becoming a fringe all star. I don't believe that about KO, but KO is 26 next month, Smart is 23 in 2 days.
     
  33. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    2,790
    Cavs rest LeBron and Kyrie tonight vs Miami and get blown out by 30. Wonder how much more they do down the stretch. While the #1 seed may not mean a whole lot to them it would clearly help the Celtics a great deal to get it.
     
  34. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    So how about Terry Rozier? Over his last 17 games he is shooting .375/.432/.909. 19/44 from 3 in that time, and 17/52 from 2.

    He is at .373/.345/.775 for the year. 48/139 from three. He's wildly inconsistent on what he'll give you every night but nice to see the 3's starting to fall for him and Jaylen Brown.
     
  35. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    21,184
    I lost the link, but apparently IT is a little miffed at some of the lineups and experimenting and said that shouldn't be happening in game #63
     
  36. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope

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    20,332
    Yeah, if he's miffed he should take it to Ainge. I'm not sure what Stevens is supposed to do with rotations when he loses two of his 4 guys over 6'9"
     
  37. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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  38. Jeff Van GULLY

    Jeff Van GULLY Member SoSH Member

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    3,024
    I know Bogut just got hurt on a freak play but I'm still baffled they didn't shell out one of their three 2nd rounders for him.
     
  39. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    Fantastic night. Avery played so very well and made something happen, with the steal and dunk, that seemed like it happened nightly last year.

    Keep his minutes low for the next couple of weeks to keep him fresh and ready for 33 minutes a game in the first round.

    Fantastic D.
     
  40. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    As I pointed out in the game-thread, I doubt anyone - and that includes San Antonio, Toronto and the Wizards, would relish drawing the Celtics, at full strength, in a seven game series. The C's will struggle to score. But so too with the other guys and aside from the Spurs and Warriors, no team is more well coached than Boston.
     
  41. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    5,357

    Kerr's good but he's not clearly better than Brad, Spo, Carlisle or Bud from what I've seen.
     
  42. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I disagree. My top five coaches in the NBA are, in order, as follows:

    Pop
    Stevens
    Kerr
    Budenholzer
    Spoelstra (and I fully admit I was a doubter early on)

    And the first three are actually a notch above the last two for their ability to implement a system that maximizes their roster's talent level (though Spoelstra is showing me something this year).
     
  43. cardiacs

    cardiacs Member SoSH Member

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    824
    The Celtics play much better as a unit with Horford on the floor.
    Isaiah's shot looks off - something has been up since the all-star game.
     
  44. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    The first sentence is an understatement. Last night he was timid to shoot at first it seemed.

    Isaiah may not be off, but he may not be taking the third and fourth bad shot that he usually takes to get heated up. He is trying to distribute a bit more, which is great. Just from the eye test the offense, and obviously the defense, looked better with Smart and Bradley on the floor rather than one of them and Isaiah last night. But do we win the game without Isaiah? Maybe, but I would say the odds are worse.
     
  45. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    The one thing that could derail the Celtics would be an unfavorable first round matchup. Yes, I'm looking at the Hawks, which is not out of the realm of possibility. Really glad that 11 of their final 16 games are at home. Once they come back from Denver, they don't even leave the eastern time zone.
     
  46. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Finally finished the game. Noted that the 4Q run was accomplished withouting playing IT4, AB, and Smart together. Hopefully Brad figures out that while that lineup is good in theory, in practise, it's not really workable except against certain very specific lineups (i.e., Curry, Klay, McCaw, Green, and Iguadola).
     
  47. cardiacs

    cardiacs Member SoSH Member

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    824
    After looking at the home/road splits and way recent games have gone I am going to call this now and say the Celtics will take the #1 seed, provided they can stay healthy.
     
  48. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope

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    20,332
    I think that's pretty bold. The Cavs might not be the 1 seed, but I think there's a good chance the Wizards pass the Celtics and there's also a chance that the Raptors do (less so without Lowry of course). The biggest advantage for the C's is their schedule, as you imply.

    Just looking:
    Celtics: 11 home games, 6 road games, only 1 b-t-b, though it's a tough one: [email protected] 6 total games against playoff teams, 2 against top 4 seeds
    Wizards: 6 home games, 13 road games, 4 b-t-b (@[email protected], [email protected], [email protected], @[email protected]). 8 games against playoff teams, 4 against top 4 seed
    Raptors: 9 home, 9 road, 3 b-t-b (@[email protected], [email protected], @[email protected]) 10 games against playoff teams, though only 1 against a top 4 seed (closing game of season against CLE)

    So the C's have schedule advantage and maybe you say they are going to stay healthy finally (at least the starting 5) and play better than they have been. The Wizards have the worst schedule but have been playing the best ball over the past 30 games.

    The relative positions of the C's and the Wizards is probably going to come down to their remaining HTH game, and how the Wizards do on their tough west coast trip (LAL, LAC on second night, then UTA and GS).
     
    #248 smastroyin, Mar 10, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  49. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    13,818
    I disagree on including Toronto in this group. There isn't a team who is a worse matchup for us......they are VERY comfortable in the 4th quarters against us in isolating DeRozan in mismatches. We lose the matchup at virtually every position on the floor versus them and they know this.
     
    #249 HomeRunBaker, Mar 10, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2017
  50. cardiacs

    cardiacs Member SoSH Member

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    824
    I agree completely with this. Toronto is the worst matchup for the Celtics and it was very clear at the end of the last few games against them. I feel better playing anyone else in the league.
     

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