Celtics Regular Season thread

Cellar-Door

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A case of Smart and Bradley trying to guard 3 guys to cover for IT and not guarding any worth a shit?
not all of it, maybe none of it.
NBA wowy has slightly different numbers, but they have the C's giving up a 114.6 w/ all 3 on the floor, 108.2 w/ Smart and AB on IT off.
108.6 w/ IT and Smart on AB off
114.9 w/ IT and AB on Smart off.
83.9 w/ Smart on IT/AB off
118.9 w/ AB on Smart/IT off
90,9 w/ IT on Smart/AB off.

Basically we suck on D whenever Avery Bradley 1st team all-defense is on the court.
 

Sprowl

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Jaylen Brown looks like the only other Celtic with the potential to make his way into the Final Five. Olynyk has regressed, Jerebko never flourishes, Rozier has lost his summer league verve, and Amir is broken again.
 

HomeRunBaker

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not all of it, maybe none of it.
NBA wowy has slightly different numbers, but they have the C's giving up a 114.6 w/ all 3 on the floor, 108.2 w/ Smart and AB on IT off.
108.6 w/ IT and Smart on AB off
114.9 w/ IT and AB on Smart off.
83.9 w/ Smart on IT/AB off
118.9 w/ AB on Smart/IT off
90,9 w/ IT on Smart/AB off.

Basically we suck on D whenever Avery Bradley 1st team all-defense is on the court.
Which is why you take defensive metrics with a grain of salt.

NBA defense is about matchups, communication and weak side help......it is a team metric the large majority of the time. Sure the Zach LeVine olae's occur now and again but this is not the norm. Rarely in today's game is one individual defender a cause for a basket and when he is it is generally defending the opponents star in iso.......where he could provide great resistance while still giving up the basket.
 

Cellar-Door

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Which is why you take defensive metrics with a grain of salt.

NBA defense is about matchups, communication and weak side help......it is a team metric the large majority of the time. Sure the Zach LeVine olae's occur now and again but this is not the norm. Rarely in today's game is one individual defender a cause for a basket and when he is it is generally defending the opponents star in iso.......where he could provide great resistance while still giving up the basket.
Well those are team numbers, not individual, but I mostly agree.
However.... I also think Bradley has taken a major step back in terms of consistent defense this year. Some of it is cheating off his man to chase rebounds, some of it is just a product of increased offensive load, some is being in bad positions because other guys are struggling, and some of it is just effort. On any given play he can still be the best defender on the court, but he isn't stringing together as many outstanding possessions this season.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Well those are team numbers, not individual, but I mostly agree.
However.... I also think Bradley has taken a major step back in terms of consistent defense this year. Some of it is cheating off his man to chase rebounds, some of it is just a product of increased offensive load, some is being in bad positions because other guys are struggling, and some of it is just effort. On any given play he can still be the best defender on the court, but he isn't stringing together as many outstanding possessions this season.
A couple of things about Bradley. It's hard to play both ends of the court in the NBA.

Also, for whatever reason, in the games I've watched, he seems to be getting switched on to bigs that he really doesn't have a chance at guarding no matter how good he is. Part of the problem with playing IT and AB together is that opposing teams can figure out which matchup they want to go after and pretty much get it all of the time.
 

Koufax

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The Celtics played today. They won. Nobody noticed. Is that a first?
 

Sir Lancelotti

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Nice analysis by Tjarks breaking down the impressive Jazz victory, foreshadowing our prospects in a playoff series. The Ringer is no Grantland, and the writers are mostly hit or miss, but they have been consistently pumping out good NBA content. I agree with the premise it would be nice to draw a 1st round matchup with an Eastern team with at least 1 non scoring guard (Detroit / Indy / Chicago) to save IT's legs on offense, there wont be many nights to sag off of the Shelvin Mack's of the world.

https://theringer.com/utah-jazz-boston-celtics-6f87a69daeb6#.y146nx73j
 

CreedBratton

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Nice analysis by Tjarks breaking down the impressive Jazz victory, foreshadowing our prospects in a playoff series. The Ringer is no Grantland, and the writers are mostly hit or miss, but they have been consistently pumping out good NBA content. I agree with the premise it would be nice to draw a 1st round matchup with an Eastern team with at least 1 non scoring guard (Detroit / Indy / Chicago) to save IT's legs on offense, there wont be many nights to sag off of the Shelvin Mack's of the world.

https://theringer.com/utah-jazz-boston-celtics-6f87a69daeb6#.y146nx73j
I miss grantland but agree that the Ringer is pumping out really good NBA stuff.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Marcus Smart has been hitting his 3s and FTs at a much better rate lately. It'll be interesting if he keeps it up. A Marcus Smart who hits 35% of his 3s and 80% of his FT's is a great player to have.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Marcus Smart has been hitting his 3s and FTs at a much better rate lately. It'll be interesting if he keeps it up. A Marcus Smart who hits 35% of his 3s and 80% of his FT's is a great player to have.
Some of that improvement is better shot selection. He's never met a three attempt he didn't like, but he is at least avoiding the more egregious bricks of late.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why the fuck can't we beat Toronto? Gah.
Matchups. They have the better matchups to execute in the 4th quarter against us that we don't have on the other end. DeRozan and their experience is the difference. They understand how to force switches to gain mismatches which was no more evident than the two possessions DeRozan scored in iso over Isaiah. We have no such matchup advnatages to gain on the other end.

We can overcome the Valanciunas advantage but not the DeRozan. It also helps Toronto that our best player doesn't have a matchup advantage at his position as they counter with Lowry.
 

bowiac

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I remain optimistic that Smart will get his shot sorted at some point. Of course, I also thought that about Rubio.
 

oumbi

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Marcus Smart has been hitting his 3s and FTs at a much better rate lately. It'll be interesting if he keeps it up. A Marcus Smart who hits 35% of his 3s and 80% of his FT's is a great player to have.
And in support of your point:

Smart's shooting percentages in the last 10 games (yes, clearly a sss):

3 pointers = 15 of 36, 41.6% (which includes the 0-5 against the Wiz)
2 pointers = 20 of 49, 40.8%
FT = 30 of 33, 90.1% (!)

I am sure i missed a number here or there since i am traveling and working off my Ipad, so feel free to correct me.

But if these number are within barking distance of reality, then maybe, maybe, maybe, smart is on a slow and inconsistent trend towards improvement.
 

BaseballJones

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Celtics on pace for 50 wins. IT is playing really well. This is a good team. Not a great team, but definitely a good one.

The question is: How can they take the next step?
 

cardiacs

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If the Heat are really open for business like Zach Lowe said then put together a competitive package for Whiteside.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I'm not sure I understand everybody's willingness to throw serious assets at rim protection. Acquiring Whiteside creates a fundamental problem for the Celtics by reducing the effectiveness of Horford, who at this point in his career, shouldn't be guarding 4s in crunch time. The C's would then have two max players who don't really fit all that well with each other.

The rim protector the C's should be looking for is somebody who is open to a 15-20 minute a game role, not a max contract starter. It seems to make way more sense to go after a guy like Bogut or Taj Gibson who cost way less and don't have long, expensive contracts attached to them.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'm not sure I understand everybody's willingness to throw serious assets at rim protection. Acquiring Whiteside creates a fundamental problem for the Celtics by reducing the effectiveness of Horford, who at this point in his career, shouldn't be guarding 4s in crunch time. The C's would then have two max players who don't really fit all that well with each other.

The rim protector the C's should be looking for is somebody who is open to a 15-20 minute a game role, not a max contract starter. It seems to make way more sense to go after a guy like Bogut or Taj Gibson who cost way less and don't have long, expensive contracts attached to them.
To add to all that, blocks aside, isn't Whiteside actually not that great defensively? I was under the impression that he's one of those 'sell out for the block' guys, though I can't say I've seen a ton of Heat basketball the last couple years. At some point it would be nice to have someone who can gobble up rebounds consistently.

Doubt there's a match here with Riley anyway. Ainge isn't touching a Brooklyn pick for this and Riley wouldn't settle for less from Boston.
 

Cesar Crespo

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To add to all that, blocks aside, isn't Whiteside actually not that great defensively? I was under the impression that he's one of those 'sell out for the block' guys, though I can't say I've seen a ton of Heat basketball the last couple years. At some point it would be nice to have someone who can gobble up rebounds consistently.

Doubt there's a match here with Riley anyway. Ainge isn't touching a Brooklyn pick for this and Riley wouldn't settle for less from Boston.
For awhile there, weren't the Heat benching Whiteside during crunch time because of his D? Pretty sure I read it on this very board a year or two ago when his name was coming up as a potential FA target.
 

moondog80

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What do we think of Tyson Chandler? He's got to be available and wouldn't fetch anything near a Brooklyn pick.
 

luckiestman

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Celtics on pace for 50 wins. IT is playing really well. This is a good team. Not a great team, but definitely a good one.

The question is: How can they take the next step?
We get a prime Charles Barkley and we're winning it all.
 

tims4wins

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Celtics on pace for 50 wins. IT is playing really well. This is a good team. Not a great team, but definitely a good one.

The question is: How can they take the next step?
They were essentially a 50 win team last year, signed Horford, had the #3 pick in the draft, and are on a similar pace. So the 2016 offseason didn't appear to do much good.

However, they may end up with a top 3 pick in both 2017 and 2018 again, which is exciting.
 

Devizier

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They were essentially a 50 win team last year, signed Horford, had the #3 pick in the draft, and are on a similar pace. So the 2016 offseason didn't appear to do much good.

However, they may end up with a top 3 pick in both 2017 and 2018 again, which is exciting.
Nothing catastrophic but a lot of guys from last year's team aren't playing quite as well this year.
 

moondog80

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They were essentially a 50 win team last year, signed Horford, had the #3 pick in the draft, and are on a similar pace. So the 2016 offseason didn't appear to do much good.

However, they may end up with a top 3 pick in both 2017 and 2018 again, which is exciting.
20 year old Jaylen Brown wasn't going to have an impact in his first 3 months and Al Horford figured to be worth 3-4 wins (which is exactly how he is playing so far) ,so they are right where they should be, especially when you consider they also lost a win or two with Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger.
 
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tims4wins

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20 year old Jaylen Brown wasn't going to have an impact in his first 3 months and Al Horford figured to be worth 3-4 wins (which is exactly how he is playing so far) ,so they are right where they should be, especially when you consider they also lost a win or two with Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger.
Right I don't disagree with this, they just aren't a contender right now and won't be for likely a couple more years, but by that point their core will be pretty old. So it's kind of a tricky situation to balance. IMO their best year might be 2018-2019, when Brown is in his 3rd year and 2017 draftee is in his 2nd year.
 

amfox1

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They were essentially a 50 win team last year, signed Horford, had the #3 pick in the draft, and are on a similar pace. So the 2016 offseason didn't appear to do much good.
The Celtics are now 24-15. After 39 games last year, they were 20-19 (they were 28-15 for the last 43 games last year).

When IT, Jae and Horford play, the Celtics are 18-7 (6-8 otherwise).

Games left vs. <.400 teams (11-2 to date): 14 (MIA, DAL, MIN, DEN, ORLx2, LALx2, PHXx2, PHIx2, BRKx2)
Games left vs. .401-.599 teams (12-3 to date): 20
Games left vs. >.600 teams (1-10 to date): 9 (HOU, GS, UTA, LACx2, CLEx2, TORx2)
 

Jed Zeppelin

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There's more upside on this year's team. They're finally circling in on Smart's best role on offense. Two young guys in Rozier and Brown who have flashed at times but need consistency. They shoot a lot better. Obviously need to figure out how to close a game against strong opponents.

As ever, I'm hopeful they can swing an ECF appearance combined with landing the #1 pick. I know it's unlikely but if you do that, then can sign a Hayward, it opens up a LOT of possibilities.
 

luckiestman

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The Celtics are now 24-15. After 39 games last year, they were 20-19 (they were 28-15 for the last 43 games last year).

When IT, Jae and Horford play, the Celtics are 18-7 (6-8 otherwise).

Games left vs. <.400 teams (11-2 to date): 14 (MIA, DAL, MIN, DEN, ORLx2, LALx2, PHXx2, PHIx2, BRKx2)
Games left vs. .401-.599 teams (12-3 to date): 20
Games left vs. >.600 teams (1-10 to date): 9 (HOU, GS, UTA, LACx2, CLEx2, TORx2)

Nice post, thanks for compiling. I see us playing .700 ball against the first two groups and maybe 4 wins against the top tier. That's about 28 more wins to put us at 52 for the season.
 

moondog80

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Sure, he would be a nice addition, but not at his 13 million salary for the two years following this one.
13 mil isn't a lot of money, they'd pay more for a similar player in FA; Amir Johnson is making 12 mil. And if somehow they get a chance to land a superstar, they could just move him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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13 mil isn't a lot of money, they'd pay more for a similar player in FA; Amir Johnson is making 12 mil. And if somehow they get a chance to land a superstar, they could just move him.
The massive difference is that Amir is expiring and Zeller is a team option for next season. The value in these players isn't what they bring on the court but rather the value that their contracts can bring in the hopes of closing a big deal for a star either via trade or the unlikely signing in FA. A trade for Chandler eliminates both of these opportunity.

Ainge isn't in the market for marginal deals that hamstring him. Any desdline deal figures to be for a minor piece without giving up much of an asset or a blockbuster. There is a very good chance we stand pat too.
 

the moops

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13 mil isn't a lot of money, they'd pay more for a similar player in FA; Amir Johnson is making 12 mil. And if somehow they get a chance to land a superstar, they could just move him.
Yea, it's not that he is overpaid at 13, it's just what it does in terms of cap space
 

JakeRae

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They were essentially a 50 win team last year, signed Horford, had the #3 pick in the draft, and are on a similar pace. So the 2016 offseason didn't appear to do much good.

However, they may end up with a top 3 pick in both 2017 and 2018 again, which is exciting.
As others have pointed out, they are on a 2 win better pace despite having a bunch of guys playing a bit worse and some minor, but not trivial, injury issues. What others haven't pointed out is that adding a big piece, like Horford, changes your whole team and leads to an adjustment period where you probably don't play your best. I think part of the defensive problems is likely attributable to that. The other part is likely because this team was really hungry to prove themselves last year in the regular season. This year, they are basically on cruise control to a 3 seed with no real prospect of the one. The place for them to prove themselves is in the playoffs. We won't be able to judge the impact of adding Horford for real until them.

Finally, the draft picks aren't supposed to help yet. Brown looks better than we expected, so there is nothing to complain about there.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Marcus Smart has been hitting his 3s and FTs at a much better rate lately. It'll be interesting if he keeps it up. A Marcus Smart who hits 35% of his 3s and 80% of his FT's is a great player to have.
Since this post he is 7-35 from the field and 1-12 from 3 point range. He is 9/11 from FT though.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I can buy that. If nothing else, he would completely shut down the "put everything we have into shutting Isaiah down" approach to defending the Celtics.

The reasons not to do this are 1) he's not worth any of the Celtics' prime assets but it isn't clear that the Knicks would settle for less, and 2) loss of flexibility due to his contract.

I'm not sure how those stack up, but I would do that deal if those issues could be work ed around.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Maybe offensively but don't quite see how Melo fits in defensively. As Charley Rosen said: "CARMELO ANTHONY’s legs are going, going, almost gone. As ever, he’s still a dangerous scorer but resists any offensive game plan that limits his one-on-one adventures. Moreover, his sticky fingers causes whatever ball-and-player movement is in effect to come to a grinding stop.

Since Melo has been mostly shooting blanks in the clutch — he was scoreless in the fourth quarter last night — it’s really a dead stop.

Also, while he’s never been accused of playing defense, Anthony is intent on saving even more steps on this end of the game to conserve his energy for offense."

http://www.fanragsports.com/nba/knicks/rosen-whats-going-stumbling-knicks/
 

Koufax

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It's interesting in that it shows that Mike Gorman is losing it.
 

JCizzle

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Mike is very down on Melo himself based on his appearances on T&R. He wants no part of him, so I'm guessing he really did hear it from somebody.
 

Koufax

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Well that's too bad. If the choice as to who is losing his marbles is between Mike Gorman and someone in the Celtics back office, I'd prefer it to be Mike.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Mike is very down on Melo himself based on his appearances on T&R. He wants no part of him, so I'm guessing he really did hear it from somebody.
Exactly. There's no way Gorman's making this up. He hates Melo's game and has recently said he'd want no part of him on the Celtics.