Celtics Predictions

Where will the Celtics end up?


  • Total voters
    163
  • Poll closed .
Aug 24, 2017
397
I think it's really too hard to predict playoff scenarios at this point. For me it's best to think of the NBA season as two things: 1) the regular season and then; 2) the playoffs. So it's more fun, I think, to be looking at wins.

And EJ literally stole my numbers; if this was a pole I'd go 50 wins but since I need to come up with something different I'll have to buy that either Brown or Tatum can be above replacement level (very unlikely) or Smart can shoot 3s at a league average rate (I'll go with this I guess) and say 55-27.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
47-35. This squad is going to take a while to gel and they are likely to see a decline in their defense, especially with Bradley gone. That said, I would love to be wrong and have Stevens coach these guys to 53-54 wins.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,481
Melrose, MA
47-35. This squad is going to take a while to gel and they are likely to see a decline in their defense, especially with Bradley gone. That said, I would love to be wrong and have Stevens coach these guys to 53-54 wins.
I agree with your first point, but not the second. Bradley had his strengths and limitations on D, and the Celtics are, overall, a longer and more athletic team than they were last year, which should help on defense.

(That said, my defensve optimism might just be me drinking the Kool-Aid).
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
I think 50 wins and still not good enough to beat Lebron. If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,407
around the way
I think 50 wins and still not good enough to beat Lebron. If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
That's awesome.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I think 50 wins and still not good enough to beat Lebron. If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
You really think JR Smith is better than Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown? Maybe the latter if you assume no improvement over last year.

And while I think Jae Crowder will be better than Morris, I doubt it's by that much. At least assuming Morris reverts back to form on 3's and Jae Crowder isn't really a 40% 3 point shooter. Really the first year Jae was any good at it was last season. You really love Jae Crowder though and I'm not very high on him.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Love @ the 5 is a layup line.
I'd take him over Al Horford but I don't think the difference is that big. Love is the superior offensive player and better rebounder but Horford is better on the defensive end. Love was also a pretty good distributor in Minnesota, but he doesn't use that skill set in Cleveland, a la Irving so I'm not really sure Horford has an edge there either. At least in a system that would use the skill set.

Plus he's younger, signed just as long, and costs $5mil less. But that factors more into long term planning than this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I said in the other thread somewhere between 50-55 wins, but if forced to pick, 53. So 53-29 and they make it to the NBA finals.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
You really think JR Smith is better than Marcus Smart or Jaylen Brown? Maybe the latter if you assume no improvement over last year.

And while I think Jae Crowder will be better than Morris, I doubt it's by that much. At least assuming Morris reverts back to form on 3's and Jae Crowder isn't really a 40% 3 point shooter. Really the first year Jae was any good at it was last season. You really love Jae Crowder though and I'm not very high on him.
I really think he is most likely better than Brown. I think Smart is the best of the three and could be by a lot if his improved shooting is real. I cheated a little bit by comparing the Cavs best lineup to our starting lineup.

Jae is an all around better player than Marcus Morris and it's not particularly close. There is basically no aspect of the game he doesn't perform better at. His career TS% is .037 higher. His career rebound rate is 0.2% higher. Morris leads in assists by 0.2% but turns the ball over at a 0.9% higher rate. His defensive stats are much better with a 2.2% and 1.1% steal and block rate compared to 1.4% and 0.7%. All of this adds up to a career BPM difference of 1.3 v. -0.4, which is a very significant gap. As we all now, RPM also agrees that the gap is quite large between the two.

Just as a note, I use career stats to avoid any concerns about overweighting Crowder's great shooting year and to balance out any impact Drummond had on Morris's rebounding. The gap has been bigger the last 2 years as Crowder has gotten better and Morris has basically stayed the same.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I really think he is most likely better than Brown. I think Smart is the best of the three and could be by a lot if his improved shooting is real. I cheated a little bit by comparing the Cavs best lineup to our starting lineup.
.
If Smart's shooting is for real, do you think that tips the scales in favor of Boston? Thing with Smart, there is a lot of room for improvement. If he reverts to his rookie year and shoots .335 from 3, he's highly valuable. If he shoots .380-.390, he's closer to LeBron James than JR Smith. That's a slight exaggeration, but Smart would move into another stratosphere of player with an actual 3 point shot.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
If IT is healthy and 80% of the player he was in Boston, we are going to be badly outmatched. IT/Smith/Lebron/Crowder/Love is better than our starting five at every position except possibly the point.
Unless you match up with Morris with LBJ and realize that Smith isn't starting; then 80% of IT is not better than Kyrie; Crowder is not better than Hayward; Wade is not better than JB; and Love is not better at the 5 than Al.

Or, so to speak, good thing Bball is a team game.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I also think Drummond has a huge impact on Morris's offensive numbers due to spacing, and the TS% numbers somewhat prove that theory, but the differences aren't too extreme because Morris has also been a much improved FT shooter since moving to Detroit making up some of the difference. Crowder will always have higher TS% numbers though because he's a much better FT shooter.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
On the predictions, I'm going to be overly optimistic and say that the Cs lose to GSW in the finals. I think the Cs will be really tough to stop on offense and their length on defense will mask any rotational issues. The Cs are just going to out-talent most of the teams they play and will beat CLE in the conference finals.

Might as well dream, right?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I really think he is most likely better than Brown. I think Smart is the best of the three and could be by a lot if his improved shooting is real. I cheated a little bit by comparing the Cavs best lineup to our starting lineup.

Jae is an all around better player than Marcus Morris and it's not particularly close. There is basically no aspect of the game he doesn't perform better at. His career TS% is .037 higher. His career rebound rate is 0.2% higher. Morris leads in assists by 0.2% but turns the ball over at a 0.9% higher rate. His defensive stats are much better with a 2.2% and 1.1% steal and block rate compared to 1.4% and 0.7%. All of this adds up to a career BPM difference of 1.3 v. -0.4, which is a very significant gap. As we all now, RPM also agrees that the gap is quite large between the two.

Just as a note, I use career stats to avoid any concerns about overweighting Crowder's great shooting year and to balance out any impact Drummond had on Morris's rebounding. The gap has been bigger the last 2 years as Crowder has gotten better and Morris has basically stayed the same.
You are arguing for something that wasn't going to happen once Crowder made it known he wanted to be traded. Once the Cleveland deal was completed he called it a great day for his basketball career. Jae had a limited role here this season, didn't want to be here and now both parties are happy. Let it go.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
You are arguing for something that wasn't going to happen once Crowder made it known he wanted to be traded. Once the Cleveland deal was completed he called it a great day for his basketball career. Jae had a limited role here this season, didn't want to be here and now both parties are happy. Let it go.
No he isn't. He's arguing Jae Crowder is better than Marcus Morris, not that Jae Crowder should still be on the team.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
No he isn't. He's arguing Jae Crowder is better than Marcus Morris, not that Jae Crowder should still be on the team.
Sure, he's marginally better and the role available in Boston this year for either is minimal and not likely to be noticeable at all.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I expect around 50 wins in the regular season. There is a very real chance we are 0-2 by Wednesday night and I wouldn't be surprised if we are hovering around the .500 mark a month into the season as we transition into finding our identity.

We're starting TWO 20-year olds and an entire new cast.......anything better than an ugly start to the season and I'll be satisfied. It's all about the playoffs this year and next offseason in setting up for next year when we really should be kicking our Finals aspirations into high gear.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Sure, he's marginally better and the role available in Boston this year for either is minimal and not likely to be noticeable at all.
And that was my argument. I could see a scenario where Morris is actually a better fit than Jae since he is going from a good rebounding team to a poor one and from a team where Al Horford would qualify as their best 3 point shooter to a team with Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. His rebounding rates should 'rebound' as well as his 3 point %. Some of that is also because he jumped from 22 minutes to 34, but he should be used in a more limited role this year. Credit to Jae Crowder there, where he didn't miss a step with an increase in minutes.
 

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,882
Twin Bridges, Mt.
55 wins. As for the Cavs lineup vs the Celts, it's a nonsensical argument. If the 2 teams were combined, the starting 5 would by LBJ, Love, Hayward, Horford and Kyrie.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,101
Would not be surprised if they are 13-12 to start the season, then go 37-20 the rest of the way. 50 wins feels about right.

They will push the Cavs to Game 7 in the ECF, but will probably lose the final one in Cleveland. Assumes good health across the board.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
I think they will start stronger than people expect, have a lull about 10 games in, and start to mesh towards the latter 1/3 of the season and be the favorite in the East.

55-27.

ECF Champs.

Lose to Warriors in 5 games.
 

lars10

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
11,620
47-35. This squad is going to take a while to gel and they are likely to see a decline in their defense, especially with Bradley gone. That said, I would love to be wrong and have Stevens coach these guys to 53-54 wins.
I know it's only highlights and I haven't seen full games, but their passing in the preseason with Horford, Irving and Hayward on the floor seemed to be pretty in sync. Are you more worried about the bench players? Or just the team in general?
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
Sure, he's marginally better and the role available in Boston this year for either is minimal and not likely to be noticeable at all.
I'm not rehashing the debate as to Crowder's value to the Celtics. I'm arguing the Cavs are still better and that a not insignificant part of that is how much better Crowder is than Morris.
 

Curtis Pride

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
1,374
Watertown, MA
For reference, Last year's Celtics finished 53-29 with the number 1 seed in the East.I can't determine whether this team is any better or worse than last year's, so I' go with 53-29 and a ECF loss.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
I'm not rehashing the debate as to Crowder's value to the Celtics. I'm arguing the Cavs are still better and that a not insignificant part of that is how much better Crowder is than Morris.
Not as a 4, though. That was a problem for Boston. Crowder's value was replaced when they signed Hayward, and he struggles guarding longer players. Morris does not.
 

finnVT

superspreadsheeter
SoSH Member
Jul 12, 2002
2,153
It feels to me like the offseason moves have not changed my median expectation for next year (53 wins, ECF loss feels about right if I were picking the over/under point), but have dramatically increased the variance, which is probably exactly what they needed to do to get over the hump. So I'll stick with similar to last year, but also way more likely to win 58+ and make the finals, as well as more likely to win 44 and finish 5th. There's just a lot of unknowns that come with starting two guys as young as Brown/Tatum, having so much roster turnover, and having that turnover include the star core who may or may not gel well/quickly.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
I'll go for EC champs, which is my homer bias and would be a hugely successful season. The related question of what I would consider success would be to be more competitive in the ECF than last year.

IT is a pretty big x-factor - if he's not good, then that should swing us to favorites. I also expect some improvements from JT (in-season), JB and Smart. If any one of them take a leap, that could be a big swing factor too.
 

SoxJox

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2003
7,086
Rock > SoxJox < Hard Place
I'm going with 55-27, as I see them being slightly better than last year (the continuing trend for Stevens). Their defense this year will be their offense. And I see a bit more quickness and athleticism on this roster.

I think we know what to expect individually from Irving, Hayward, and Horford. What we won't know until some time into the season is how they will perform together. I have confidence in Stevens minimizing the difficulties of the adjustment period.

I'm looking for good things from Jaylen Brown, to see what improvements come from a slimmed down Marcus Smart, to see what "small" forward 6'9" Marcus Morris brings to the table, and...just to have Jason Tatum.
 

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,882
Twin Bridges, Mt.
55-27 and a loss in the EC Finals. Two strong factors for the Celts are 1. Stevens' experience as a college coach and building a "new" team each season, will translate to this revamped C's team and 2. We are all about to see what he can do with a team full of shooters. There are a bunch of good shooters on this team and Stevens is great at creating open looks. This team is going to be a killer when it hits 3-4 jumpers in a row and turns a 3 point game into an 11 point game. Combine that with a defense that is very good at defending the perimeter and many teams in the league are going to face deficits that aren't easy to come back from.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,506
Couple of interesting stats from preseason.

(1) During preseason, Cs took 30.5 3P attempts per game, which ranked 12th in the NBA. They made 40.2% of those 3Ps, which ranked fourth in the league. I believe last year they finished at 35.9%, which was 14th in the league. In the three seasons prior to that, Boston finished no better than 27th in the league in three-point percentage (.327, 2015). I.e., Cs have much better shooting this year than in the past, which is of no surprise but should help avoid the droughts that we have seen in the past. https://sports.yahoo.com/celtics-3-point-shooters-brad-223514317.html

(2) In the preseason, JB had a defensive rating of 83.3, which was tops among all Cs who logged at least 20 minutes per game. http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/jaylen-brown-ready-starting-role-alongside-celtics-big-three
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
For reference, Last year's Celtics finished 53-29 with the number 1 seed in the East.I can't determine whether this team is any better or worse than last year's, so I' go with 53-29 and a ECF loss.
It can be both too. We can be a worse regular season team yet a better playoff team. The Isaiah subtraction in the regular season coupled with Kyrie's upgrade come post-season can account for this in itself.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,850
NYC
For reference, Last year's Celtics finished 53-29 with the number 1 seed in the East.I can't determine whether this team is any better or worse than last year's, so I' go with 53-29 and a ECF loss.
Pythag record is a typically a more predictive baseline, so if you think this team is about the same level as last year's, they should end up around 49-33.

Personally, I think this year's team is significantly better than last year's — beyond the pretty substantial upgrade from IT/Bradley/Crowder/KO/Amir to Kyrie/Hayward/Tatum/MM/Baynes, I expect big age-related progression from Smart, Brown and Rozier, with no real regression from anyone — so I'll go with 54-28.
 

TheRooster

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2001
2,483
52 wins figuring injuries and youth will have an impact. If they end up with very few injuries, I could see 56 or 57 wins. Having multiple go-to guys in close/late situations will be a huge advantage. They'll squeak by the Cavs in the ECF and then have nothing left for the Finals.
 

thehitcat

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 25, 2003
2,377
Windham, ME
With 7:24 left in the second the Celts led 34-31 and Kyrie and Al came back into the game for Hayward and Yabu. From that point the run was 22-7 and honestly I had to look up most of the points the Hornets scored. I for one am going to enjoy some of the beatings this team administers between first unit scoring binges and 2nd unit defensive clamp downs.
Also I can't wait to see teams fall behind and their best players change over to "get mine" mode when they realize that they aren't winning tonight. I think I just saw Kemba's light switch on a bit early but it is the preseason so I won't fault him on it too much.
I wanted to pull these two quotes in from the last game of the preseason. I've been surprised at how "together" this team looks already. I think with good health this team is a legit 1 seed in the East that will absolutely wax some teams in the regular season. Jump out with the first unit and then put the clamps on with the second then push the lead out further with the first unit. I think, unlike last season when it seemed every game was a life and death struggle to the end, we will put teams away early and get Geno time on a regular basis at home and the equivalent (resting the starters I guess) on the road.

I think they will win 55 which puts them in the 1 seed in 2013 and 2014, the 2 seed in 2015, the 3 seed in 2016 and back in the 1 last year. I like this team's chances if we get a game 7 in a raucous Garden against this Cavs team as currently constituted. I don't like any team against the Warriors as currently constituted.
 

Royal Reader

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2005
2,276
UK
49 wins and a three seed. Losing in 6 to the Cavs whenever seeding dictates they meet, but all but one game is close and there's real optimism for 18/19.
 

cardiacs

Admires Neville Chamberlain
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,993
Milford, CT
Put me down for 55 wins. I really liked what I saw from the kids and Smart. Plus, the East is pretty bad.
 

Valek123

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
979
Upper Valley
48 Wins. Injuries and depth are challenged as youth plays more but make it to the ECF and lose in 6. Huge step forward next year with the youth having a year under their belt.

Tatum ROY.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
I know it's only highlights and I haven't seen full games, but their passing in the preseason with Horford, Irving and Hayward on the floor seemed to be pretty in sync. Are you more worried about the bench players? Or just the team in general?
I am not worried per se. I simply think chemistry takes time to build and the Cs have all new rotations too. Perhaps a lot of these mid 50 win forecasts are correct and Stevens will get the team firing on all cylinders in short order.

That said, preseason and the start of the real season are two different things with lots of regulars "resting" in some form or another.

Finally, I will buy that the Celtics are better defensively than last season due to length when we see the data. I hope they are because that coupled with their potential offense makes this squad very formidable.
 

heavyde050

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2006
11,257
San Francisco
Around 50 wins (range of 48 to 53) and a trip to the ECF. Barring any new injuries, I have the ECF going 7 games. As a fan I want to say the Celts will beat the Cavs in 7 and lose to the Warriors in 5 or 6, but if I had to predict, I am going with game 7 loss in ECF. LeBron James will do his thing.
 

Nator

Member
SoSH Member
55 wins. There are some truly horrific teams in the eastern conference that will result in a lot of laughers where the starters get extra bench time in the 4th while they kid around with each other. They will then be fresher for the more challenging teams on the schedule where they will need to log more minutes.

They make the finals and lose to Golden State. If Golden state slips up somehow or are hobbled by injuries, then this team has a legitimate shot to bring #18 back to Boston.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
49 wins (slow start on offense and less depth to grind through the regular season) and Cavs in 5. Clear EC favorites heading into 18-'19 as Brown and Tatum continue to develop and another talented young player is added while LBJ leaves the conference. A successful building block season.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,001
52 wins, beat Cavs in ECF in 6, lose to GS in 5 in the Finals.

People are acting like LeBron is unbeatable, but this Celtics team has a lot of potential to play like the 2014 Spurs (Kawhii was not KAWHII yet on offense then), and that team really wore LeBron down when Wade was too beat up to pick up the slack, and the rest of the Heat were too thin.

This Cavs team is probably worse than that Heat team if IT isn't himself again--I'd much rather have that version of Bosh than this version of Love as the #2 guy.