Paul George to OKC

Sam Ray Not

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To get both, you part with:
Amir
Jonas
Kelly
Young
Green
Zeller
Mickey
Jackson
Bradley
Jae

And then one of the IT/Jaylen/Tatum/Smart group. Depending on what you want to do with zizic/yabu this year. Crazy how much roster turnover it takes.
Sounds about right. To get just one KD last summer, the Warriors had to part with...

Barnes
Bogut
Ezeli
Speights
Barbosa
Rush

And that was with the giant 2016 cap expansion, and with Steph still on the last year of his massively below market deal. If not for those things, Iguodala and Livingston would have been added to that list.

In the end, though, nobody minded too much because KFD. And once you build your Big 3 or Big 4, vets like Zaza, West, McGee and Matt Barnes will come, and cheap D-league and 2nd-round types like Ian Clark, James McAdoo and Patrick McCaw will step up.

TLDR: do it, Danny.
 
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nighthob

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Yes, but IND has nothing to do with that extension (well, sort of nothing).
Unless Indiana is renegotiating and extending George and then dealing him (not even sure that's legal), because the Smart salary is extraneous otherwise. Bradley & Crowder suffice for PG at his current salary, but you would need more than that if his salary were, say, $26 million next year.
 

the moops

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Reading is Fundamental ... what part of "an extended George" do you not understand?
No need to be dooshy about it. IND currently has a soon to be FA in George on their roster. Last week, there was talk of complete garbage going to IND, and it just seems shocking that IND, who have little leverage, could extract that much for him.
 

E5 Yaz

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No need to be dooshy about it. IND currently has a soon to be FA in George on their roster. Last week, there was talk of complete garbage going to IND, and it just seems shocking that IND, who have little leverage, could extract that much for him.
When you are reacting to a post by the citing the exact opposite of what the post says, you don't deserve kid gloves
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If this rumored package is true, Rozier becomes their projected starting PG on opening night and their G depth goes to nothing. Obviously they will make other moves and losing both Bradley and Smart for George shouldn't hold the Cs up (with the extension) but it's a concern. Rondo redux?

Edit: This assumes Thomas can't start the season of course.
 

AimingForYoko

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Jimmy Stewart on 98.5 mentioned Bradley/Crowder/Smart/Philly and Memphis picks for George with an extension in place. Take it with a grain of salt but he does have a pretty good source within the Celtics organization.
Jimmy seems to have a direct line to the C's so I'm inclined to believe him over just about anyone.

Pull the trigger, Danny!
 

RedOctober3829

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If this rumored package is true, Rozier becomes their projected starting PG on opening night and their G depth goes to nothing. Obviously they will make other moves and losing both Bradley and Smart for George shouldn't hold the Cs up (with the extension) but it's a concern. Rondo redux?

Edit: This assumes Thomas can't start the season of course.
They'll have an exception to offer to a defensive minded 2 guard to play next to IT. They really have to do that in order to avoid a terrible defensive backcourt. In a Cleveland series, you can not have the possibility to play P&R to get IT onto Kyrie.
 

E5 Yaz

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Whatever dude.

I still stand by my reasoning and am shocked if that deal goes through
I'll also be shocked if the deal goes through, but not because of your "reasoning." Mega-trades are by their very nature prone to falling apart.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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I'll also be shocked if the deal goes through, but not because of your "reasoning." Mega-trades are by their very nature prone to falling apart.
Not so sure about that...going to be tough for any team (certainly any of the rumored teams) to beat the combination of (potential) high draft picks and young talent.
 

finnVT

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With IT's injury, moving AB *and* Smart is pretty terrifying. There are a lot of PGs on the market this year, so maybe you can get some decent depth on whatever exemption they have available?
 

DJnVa

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With IT's injury, moving AB *and* Smart is pretty terrifying. There are a lot of PGs on the market this year, so maybe you can get some decent depth on whatever exemption they have available?
I would have to believe they have a plan here, because they could have had Fultz (yes, I know they liked Tatum better, but still), and if they were willing to deal him, knowing this was a possibility, then I have to imagine they game planned for it.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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With IT's injury, moving AB *and* Smart is pretty terrifying. There are a lot of PGs on the market this year, so maybe you can get some decent depth on whatever exemption they have available?
Or Stevens' "wings and swings" theory will be put to the test.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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As usual, the team getting the star makes out like bandits. Bradley is gone in a year regardless. Crowder is good and cheap but very redundant with George, Hayward, Brown, and Tatum in the fold. The Memphis pick is a potential goldmine but only if Memphis tanks very soon (otherwise it's likely a mid-round pick).

Losing the LA pick is what it is, potential stud but a non-zero chance it doesn't vest until 2019 even if LA sucks, and who knows what happens in Sacto (though I'm bearish on their win totals for the next couple years). Having the Brooklyn pick and Brown/Tatum already in hand makes it pretty easy to let that one go. Plus, this is simply the trump card that no other team can offer—a draft pick that isn't IMMEDIATELY devalued upon making the trading partner a lot better.

I do hope they can keep Smart out of any deal. Would be a lot of glue going out the door in this deal and I think he would be an invaluable asset on the court upon beefing up our offensive talent and allowing him to just do Marcus Smart things all game.

Re: Passing on Fultz and then creating an opening in the backcourt—either he or a Brooklyn pick would have to be in this deal most likely if we didn't have the LA pick. So if that's the case then it's either Fultz/George or BK18/George vs. Tatum/BK18/George. It was an educated gamble to assume that the LA pick is still going to be a better draft asset than most, if not all, other teams can offer, almost as good as the Nets pick.
 
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MillarTime

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And these rumors KEEP the Nets pick? Oh my.
This. This. This. Seems like the best way to balance now and the future. An IT/George/Hayward/Horford core could absolutely compete with the Cavs and you still have Jaylen/Tatum/Brooklyn pick to develop.

Tough to give up Marcus - love the way he plays and think he'd be a dynamite 5th/6th man on that team. But....I think the Lakers pick+Memphis pick+Crowder+ Smart+ Bradley is fair value for an extended George. From Indiana's perspective, Bradley + Smart are likely gone after next year.
 

RedOctober3829

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As usual, the team getting the star makes out like bandits. Bradley is gone in a year regardless. Crowder is good and cheap but very redundant with George, Hayward, Brown, and Tatum in the fold. The Memphis pick is a potential goldmine but only if Memphis tanks very soon (otherwise it's likely a mid-round pick).

Losing the LA pick is what it is, potential stud but a non-zero chance it doesn't vest until 2019 even if LA sucks, and who knows what happens in Sacto (though I'm bearish on their win totals for the next couple years). Having the Brooklyn pick and Brown/Tatum already in hand makes it pretty easy to let that one go. Plus, this is simply the trump card that no other team can offer—a draft pick that isn't IMMEDIATELY devalued upon making the trading partner a lot better.

I do hope they can keep Smart out of any deal. Would be a lot of glue going out the door in this deal and I think he would be an invaluable asset on the court upon beefing up our offensive talent and allowing him to just do Marcus Smart things all game.
To keep Smart out of the deal, you'd probably have to convince Hayward and George to take slightly less than the max.
 

lovegtm

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I would have to believe they have a plan here, because they could have had Fultz (yes, I know they liked Tatum better, but still), and if they were willing to deal him, knowing this was a possibility, then I have to imagine they game planned for it.
Right, but this way you get Tatum plus are able to keep the 2018 Brooklyn pick.

If this deal goes through with an extended George, Danny's split of the #1 into 2 high picks looks really good.
 

snowmanny

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If that's the offer nobody else is coming close.

Edit: the bigger question is the extension.
 

BigSoxFan

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Right, but this way you get Tatum plus are able to keep the 2018 Brooklyn pick.

If this deal goes through with an extended George, Danny's split of the #1 into 2 high picks looks really good.
Yup. No idea if he did that with this in mind but landing George and Hayward and retaining Brown, Tatum, and 2018 Nets pick would be such a huge win for Ainge.
 

RedOctober3829

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Yup. No idea if he did that with this in mind but landing George and Hayward and retaining Brown, Tatum, and 2018 Nets pick would be such a huge win for Ainge.
I think he traded down in part because they knew about the declining cap number. He trades down to 3, gets the player he supposedly wanted, and pays less for him. That savings is proving to be needed now that we know the $99 million cap.
 

finnVT

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There's just no way to do Hayward (or other max) plus an extension for PG without completely decimating your depth. This should illustrate-- this is the most viable path I've been able to find to get Hayward and an extended PG.

1. With Yabu's injury, try to stash him again. Rescind Zeller, Olynyk, Young, Mickey and DJackson. Try to sign Tatum to the cap (maybe +5%, but not the full +20%). That leaves you max+100k under cap.
2. Sign Hayward for max (29.7). This puts you at 98.9m, with IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Hayward, Crowder, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Zizic, and two cap holds on the books.
3. Let's assume you want to renegotiate PG so that you can extend him at a max level. Since you can extend with a 20% raise, you basically want to get him on a new deal at 24.7m (that would let you extend at 29.7m). To do this, you either need to trade and free up the full 24.7, or have IND renegotiate and trade, in which case you need to send ~19.7m in salaries back. AB+Crowder+Smart does it (20.1m total), and then have the extension in place with PG.

So this is viable. BUT, you're left with:
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
George/Tatum
Horford/Zizic

at 105m (after 4 cap holds). Hopefully you can use a room exception or something to add a vet PG, which gets you to 9 players. #10-12 then likely become Semi, Nader?, and ???. You have basically no ability to sign anyone for those last few spots, no contracts to send back in a trade (assuming you'd dangle the 2018 1st/Yabu/something). Maybe having a starting 5 that includes IT, Hayward, George, and Horford makes this worthwhile, especially if Brown and Tatum emerge, but it's a *really* short bench, and the cap gets tough to manage.
 

RedOctober3829

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There's just no way to do Hayward (or other max) plus an extension for PG without completely decimating your depth. This should illustrate-- this is the most viable path I've been able to find to get Hayward and an extended PG.

1. With Yabu's injury, try to stash him again. Rescind Zeller, Olynyk, Young, Mickey and DJackson. Try to sign Tatum to the cap (maybe +5%, but not the full +20%). That leaves you max+100k under cap.
2. Sign Hayward for max (29.7). This puts you at 98.9m, with IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Hayward, Crowder, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Zizic, and two cap holds on the books.
3. Let's assume you want to renegotiate PG so that you can extend him at a max level. Since you can extend with a 20% raise, you basically want to get him on a new deal at 24.7m (that would let you extend at 29.7m). To do this, you either need to trade and free up the full 24.7, or have IND renegotiate and trade, in which case you need to send ~19.7m in salaries back. AB+Crowder+Smart does it (20.1m total), and then have the extension in place with PG.

So this is viable. BUT, you're left with:
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
George/Tatum
Horford/Zizic

at 105m (after 4 cap holds). Hopefully you can use a room exception or something to add a vet PG, which gets you to 9 players. #10-12 then likely become Semi, Nader?, and ???. You have basically no ability to sign anyone for those last few spots, no contracts to send back in a trade (assuming you'd dangle the 2018 1st/Yabu/something). Maybe having a starting 5 that includes IT, Hayward, George, and Horford makes this worthwhile, especially if Brown and Tatum emerge, but it's a *really* short bench, and the cap gets tough to manage.
Wouldn't you think that the starting 5 would generate interest from vets to come and play for the minimum to round out the bench?
 

Big John

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Felger/mazz producer hinting that it's:
Lakers pick
Memphis pick
Smart
Bradley
Crowder

For extended George

Beaten to it!
That almost works. I'm rounding numbers. With Cap holds, that brings the Celtics down to $118M, assuming they renounce the MLE (obvious).
Renouncing all of their free agents (Green, Jerebko, Johnson Olynyk) brings them down to $81M. Johnson, in particular, has a huge $15M cap hold.
Shedding Zeller, Mickey and the non-guaranteed portion of Demetrius Jackson's deal saves another $10M. so they are at $71M, enough to pay Hayward close to the max.

But their roster is now down to 5 players (including George) and their three first rounders makes 8. There is an $815K cap hold for each roster spot under 13. That's $4.0M in holds. So I don't see how Hayward gets the max with Jalen Brown, IT, Rozier, Horford and their three first rounders (Tatum, Yabusele, Zizic) still on the books, either in the form of guaranteed salary or cap holds.

Maybe Zarren has a way to do it with smoke and mirrors. We'll see.
 
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jmm57

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I also think that Horford (or Hayward, or George, or IT, or one of the kids) is pretty easily moved if the need arises in the future.
 

Fishy1

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Stolen from Ryan Bernardoni @dangercart on twitter. A couple different scenarios: in both Zeller obviously has to go, and Crowder and Bradley are gone too and that's plenty to get us under the cap to get Hayward -- the problem is how to keep George around past next year with the luxury tax. IT will be gone, unless the ownership wants to pay everyone plus the luxury tax (but with IT's hip, I'm not sure anyone will be paying him anyways), but you'll have to replace him somehow, so that doesn't get you any closer.

As others have noted, this leaves us extremely thin at guard in either scenario, and thin in general, particularly to start the season with IT out. Keeping IT around, you get another year to evaluate Marcus or Rozier to see if they can play at the required level on offense. As for spots 9-15... as others have noted, there'll be plenty of vets looking to join in.

What's interesting to me is that Danny has frequently talked about how the point is to win championships. I think there is value to watching an awesome basketball team, even if it's not going to win a championship, but this team could beat Cleveland, of that much I'm sure -- if not this year, then next year, once Jaylen and Tatum have their sea legs under them. And as for Golden State -- Durant goes down, and I think it's possible.

And would anyone be surprised if the actual deal was something totally, completely different?
 

OurF'ingCity

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So this is viable. BUT, you're left with:
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
George/Tatum
Horford/Zizic
I think you do this in a heartbeat if you can. We've seen time and time again that the key is to get star players and then get creative in filling out the rest of your roster based on remaining needs. With the exception and the chance to get veterans to sign short deals to play for a contender, I think you could get to a solid rotation fairly easily although you are right the cap flexibility is utterly gone of course.

Look at the 2007-08 Celtics for a good example - after 8ish players that roster pretty much fell off a cliff as well (although they were later able to sign guys for minimum contracts like Cassell and P.J. Brown). And that was an even "worse" situation going into the season because Perkins and Rondo were more unproven than any of the starters would be under the above scenario. Now obviously the 2008 team had a lot going for it, meshed well, etc. that you can't forecast, but my point is just that it's not unreasonable to try to secure a great starting rotation and then go from there even at the expense of depth.
 

Cellar-Door

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There's just no way to do Hayward (or other max) plus an extension for PG without completely decimating your depth. This should illustrate-- this is the most viable path I've been able to find to get Hayward and an extended PG.

1. With Yabu's injury, try to stash him again. Rescind Zeller, Olynyk, Young, Mickey and DJackson. Try to sign Tatum to the cap (maybe +5%, but not the full +20%). That leaves you max+100k under cap.
2. Sign Hayward for max (29.7). This puts you at 98.9m, with IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Hayward, Crowder, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Zizic, and two cap holds on the books.
3. Let's assume you want to renegotiate PG so that you can extend him at a max level. Since you can extend with a 20% raise, you basically want to get him on a new deal at 24.7m (that would let you extend at 29.7m). To do this, you either need to trade and free up the full 24.7, or have IND renegotiate and trade, in which case you need to send ~19.7m in salaries back. AB+Crowder+Smart does it (20.1m total), and then have the extension in place with PG.

So this is viable. BUT, you're left with:
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
George/Tatum
Horford/Zizic

at 105m (after 4 cap holds). Hopefully you can use a room exception or something to add a vet PG, which gets you to 9 players. #10-12 then likely become Semi, Nader?, and ???. You have basically no ability to sign anyone for those last few spots, no contracts to send back in a trade (assuming you'd dangle the 2018 1st/Yabu/something). Maybe having a starting 5 that includes IT, Hayward, George, and Horford makes this worthwhile, especially if Brown and Tatum emerge, but it's a *really* short bench, and the cap gets tough to manage.
You're going to be attractive to minimum vets though and buyouts. Then year 2 you add Yabusele, BKN 1 plus BOS 1 and you have an MLE.
 

Auger34

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I didn't get a chance to read the whole thread and I see the rumored Jimmy Stewart package but that seems like a ton to give up (especially with what Butler fetched).

I think what Boston will end up giving up (and I am not sure all of these assets will stay in Indiana as they might be interested in a 3 way trade) is Bradley, Crowder, and 3 of the 1st rounders that Ainge has accumulated NOT including the LAL/PHI and BKN pick (I'd guess the MEM, LAC, and Boston'a 1st next year)

Starting 5 is IT, Smart, Hayward, George, and Horford with Rozier, Zizic, Brown, Tatum off the bench plus a few ring chasers I'd imagine.
 

cheech13

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I just hope that Indiana doesn't get impatient or stupid and deal George before Saturday.
It's possible that Indiana is using these negotiations to up their offers from LA, Cleveland or whomever else is interested before free agency gets going.

Also, how boned is LA if George signs an extension with Boston? If that happens they aren't getting Lebron and the DeAngelo trade suddenly looks much worse.
 

finnVT

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I didn't get a chance to read the whole thread and I see the rumored Jimmy Stewart package but that seems like a ton to give up (especially with what Butler fetched).
Value wise, I think it's fine. Smart and AB are FAs after next season, and I'm not sure they're guys you give big money to. Crowder is also fine, and is incredibly salary-efficient, but he's redundant if you have Hayward/PG/Brown/Tatum all on the roster. If you're extending PG, I have no problem giving up that LAL/SAC pick or the MEM one, in fact, keeping the 2018 BRK pick seems like the top priority. If there's no PG extension, I feel very different about including those picks.
 

BaseballJones

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Sounds about right. To get just one KD last summer, the Warriors had to part with...

Barnes
Bogut
Ezeli
Speights
Barbosa
Rush

And that was with the giant 2016 cap expansion, and with Steph still on the last year of his massively below market deal. If not for those things, Iguodala and Livingston would have been added to that list.

In the end, though, nobody minded too much because KFD. And once you build your Big 3 or Big 4, vets like Zaza, West, McGee and Matt Barnes will come, and cheap D-league and 2nd-round types like Ian Clark, James McAdoo and Patrick McCaw will step up.

TLDR: do it, Danny.
I really like that last point. Having 3-4 studs helps EVERYONE get better. If the Celtics can end up with IT, Hayward, Brown, George, Rozier, Tatum, Horford, and Zizic, that core nucleus of IT, Hayward, George, and Horford will help Brown and Tatum and Zizic and even other guys like Semi or role-playing veterans to fill out to roster play much better.

What I like is that if they're able to pull this rabbit out of the hat and land George and Hayward without giving up Brown, Tatum, or the Brooklyn pick, they will still (as someone else upthread mentioned) be able to develop a wonderful young core for the long-term.

IF they can pull all this off....absolutely go for it. Work out the last 6 spots on the bench later.
 

pjheff

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I think what Boston will end up giving up (and I am not sure all of these assets will stay in Indiana as they might be interested in a 3 way trade) is Bradley, Crowder, and 3 of the 1st rounders that Ainge has accumulated NOT including the LAL/PHI and BKN pick (I'd guess the MEM, LAC, and Boston'a 1st next year).
It seems to me that Marcus Smart is the price for an extended Paul George, and you pay it.

It also seems that a potentially high lottery pick was the price for acquiring Paul George from Indianapolis, and DA split the #1 into the #3 and LAL/SAC pick in order to satisfy them.
 

chilidawg

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There's just no way to do Hayward (or other max) plus an extension for PG without completely decimating your depth. This should illustrate-- this is the most viable path I've been able to find to get Hayward and an extended PG.

1. With Yabu's injury, try to stash him again. Rescind Zeller, Olynyk, Young, Mickey and DJackson. Try to sign Tatum to the cap (maybe +5%, but not the full +20%). That leaves you max+100k under cap.
2. Sign Hayward for max (29.7). This puts you at 98.9m, with IT, Smart, Bradley, Rozier, Hayward, Crowder, Brown, Tatum, Horford, Zizic, and two cap holds on the books.
3. Let's assume you want to renegotiate PG so that you can extend him at a max level. Since you can extend with a 20% raise, you basically want to get him on a new deal at 24.7m (that would let you extend at 29.7m). To do this, you either need to trade and free up the full 24.7, or have IND renegotiate and trade, in which case you need to send ~19.7m in salaries back. AB+Crowder+Smart does it (20.1m total), and then have the extension in place with PG.

So this is viable. BUT, you're left with:
IT/Rozier
Hayward/Brown
George/Tatum
Horford/Zizic

at 105m (after 4 cap holds). Hopefully you can use a room exception or something to add a vet PG, which gets you to 9 players. #10-12 then likely become Semi, Nader?, and ???. You have basically no ability to sign anyone for those last few spots, no contracts to send back in a trade (assuming you'd dangle the 2018 1st/Yabu/something). Maybe having a starting 5 that includes IT, Hayward, George, and Horford makes this worthwhile, especially if Brown and Tatum emerge, but it's a *really* short bench, and the cap gets tough to manage.
That thin bench is why I would target one of Hayward or George but not both. I think we're still a very improved team with one of those two, growth from Brown, Rozier, Smart etc., and adding Zizic and Tatum. The following year looks even stronger.
 

BigSoxFan

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3 point FG% last year:

Horford: 35.5%
George: 39.3%
Hayward: 39.8%
Brown: 34.1%
Thomas: 37.9%

That could be an absolutely lethal offense and one that fits perfectly fits Stevens' offense. If teams go big, you swap out Brown for Zizic. The lineup flexibility that George and Hayward would provide is immense.
 

Auger34

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Value wise, I think it's fine. Smart and AB are FAs after next season, and I'm not sure they're guys you give big money to. Crowder is also fine, and is incredibly salary-efficient, but he's redundant if you have Hayward/PG/Brown/Tatum all on the roster. If you're extending PG, I have no problem giving up that LAL/SAC pick or the MEM one, in fact, keeping the 2018 BRK pick seems like the top priority. If there's no PG extension, I feel very different about including those picks.
Yeah, but as mopes alluded to earlier, the Pacers don't really have anything to do with George being extended. I guess Smart would be included as a way to clear money but I can't imagine giving up the LAL pick in addition to that.

I stand by the Crowder/Bradley/3 1st round pick package. Short of LAL panicking and including Ingram, is there any team that has a prayer of extending George that could top that? Denver won't give up Jokic or Murray
 

Cesar Crespo

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That thin bench is why I would target one of Hayward or George but not both. I think we're still a very improved team with one of those two, growth from Brown, Rozier, Smart etc., and adding Zizic and Tatum. The following year looks even stronger.

I'd rather have a stronger line up at the cost of the bench. Bench players are easy to acquire. Starters, not so much. Never mind players of George and Hayward's caliber.
 

Big John

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Good point, although I haven't seen any reports on what his contract might look like, or if he's even going to get guaranteed money.
Theiss will probably get a portion of the room exception after the dust settles.

As an aside, all of these aggregate cap numbers over 99 million, e.g. the tables from Ryan Bernardoni (whoever he is) make no sense to me. It's simple-- at the moment when the Celtics sign Hayward as a free agent-- whether it's before the trade for George or afterwards--they have to be under the cap (including guaranteed salaries and cap holds) by a number that Hayward can accept as the first year salary of his new Celtics deal. We're told that the cap is now $99M. Whatever happens post George and Hayward is irrelevant. Presumably they will go over $99M to extend George (hopefully) and sign their second rounders. That's actually good, because then they will get the full MLE in 2018-19.
 
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