Celtics in 18-19

TripleOT

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The Celtics were 25-16 when Marcus Morris took it upon himself to try to exert some veteran leadership by pushing Jaylen Brown during a timeout when Brown didn't hustle on defense. They've gone 18-15 since, with Morris going from being a 45% three point sniper, to shooting a paltry 30% from three since the Miami game on January 10th. He's also been even less effective on defense than he was previous to the incident, and his rebounding plummeted from 7.3 rpg to 5.1 rpg in the 33 games since then. A Marcus Morris who misses seven of ten threes, plays porous defense, and doesn't rebound is fucking useless.

The Celtics were on a nice 15-6 roll after the 10-10 start. I believe when the postmortem on this season is written, and Morris is chucking up turnaround 20 footer for whatever dumb team pays him this off season, this will be the moment when the team went off the rails. A self entitled contract year "veteran" of middling talent, who hadn't done a damn thing in the league, decided to cross a line and get physical with a younger teammate during a game, with zero ramifications from the Celtics brass.

If Morris had a season ending injury tomorrow, the team would have a much better chance in the playoffs. He's too shot needy. Tonight against the Spurs, he had three chances for an assist as the ball was swung to him on the perimeter slot, with a player wide open in the corner, and he chucked up misses all three times. The Celtics have been shooting a dogshit percentage from behind the arc recently, mostly because of the threes they've been taking. When the ball is swung around, or kicked out after a driver gets a foot in the paint, that' when they make a high percentage.

I'd much rather see them play big, with AL and Baynes, or small, with Al and either Jaylen or Hayward, than Morris starting the game. Defensively the Cs would be a lot better off with Morris out of there. I don't see Stevens making a big change and we're probably stuck with Morris as this team limps to the conclusion of the season. A more dynamic starting line up, with Brown and Tatum in the front court, will allow the team to get the ball to the rim more often, which is important in the playoffs,

It has been a huge mistake giving a contract year journeyman so big a role on this talent laden team, and now that he's reverted to what kind of player he really is, after the blazing shooting the first half of the season, he should be getting journeyman minutes.

The other big problem with this team, the horrible play by Rozier as a reserve, should be mitigated when Kyrie's minutes are stretched out. Hopefully, Stevens won't play Rozier when Kyrie is on the floor. Stevens needs to make sure his talented wings, Tatum and Brown, get 36 mpg, and Hayward gets 28-30.

It was fun watching the well coached Spurs eviscerate the Celtics tonight. Pop made sure that every single perceived advantage was exploited to death. LMA obviously had a big game, and DeRozen, while not scoring big, tallied 11 assists, the fifth time he had double figure assists this season. He had 10 assists when these teams played in San Antonio. What a smart team, playing to their strength pretty much every possession.

The Celtics were locked in, Spurs-style, last season in the playoffs. Brad got every drop of talent of every player who hit the court. They played for each other, and never gave an inch, even when things went south. I have little faith that this team can rally and get back to that kind of basketball with the rotation as presently constituted. I don't know if Stevens has what it takes to make the necessary moves to right this ship. I had greatly looked forward to this season. Now I look forward to it ending.
 

nighthob

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I know this is '19-'20 talk in a '18-'19 thread, but since we're digressing...if Kyrie walks, and I sincerely hope he doesn't, would it make sense to go after Kemba? So then build around Kemba, Horford, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown?
They’d still be over the cap, so they can’t go after Kemba because he’s going to be sorting through a pile of max deals. The way forward would be to either hope that Brown and Tatum hit their top end projection and that they turn up gold with the Memphis pick or to make a trade (as they did with Irving).

The one team with an all star looking to blow things up is Washington, so Beal is probably the most realistic target.
 

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They’d still be over the cap, so they can’t go after Kamba because he’s going to be sorting through a pile of max deals. The way forward would be to either hope that Brown and Tatum hit their top end projection and that they turn up gold with the Memphis pick or to make a trade (as they did with Irving).

The one team with an all star looking to blow things up is Washington, so Beal is probably the most realistic target.
Ah, thanks. I've always liked Kemba, but I'm a big fan of Beal as well.
 

nighthob

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If Irving and his management agree to leave by sign & trade, Boston could simplify things a little. Irving would generate a TPE of approximately $21 million, if they could combine it with a sign & trade of Rozier to someone like Phoenix or Chicago they could generate a TPE large enough to absorb Beal’s salary outright.

That would simplify things considerably and possibly even lower the acquisition cost a little. Aside from Beal there’s not a whole lot out there (well, the Unibrower, but my reservations on that front would increase a hundredfold if Irving walked).
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Cross posting from the gamethread but the problem for the C's, aside from their putrid shooting displays of late, is really on the defensive end. From wbcd:


I've said this before but I think the biggest problem for the Cs is that for some reason they aren't - maybe can't - take advantages of mismatches. I mean look at the Spurs tonight - they can go to LMA in the post or switch DeRozen onto virtually anyone and both those guys can either force the defense to break down or get a bucket if the Cs stay one-on-one.

But other than Kyrie, no one can do that consistently for the Cs. However, they have lots of people trying it.

It's like everyone thinks they are 15% better than they really are.
Per your observation, its clear that other teams know how to attack Boston and force them into the mismatches they want. As you know, its basic NBA stuff. That said, amongst the many personnel issues, the Celtics inability/unwillingness to clamp down seems to be pretty glaring. Outside of Smart, Horford and maybe Brown (lately), they lack players capable of playing consistent defense. Baynes and Theis, for all of their energy and hustle, don't have the skill to keep up with better bigs while Irving, Tatum, Morris, Rozier and Hayward either won't or cannot sustain good defensive effort.

It shows in the team defensive ratings (I know that stat sucks but absent something better it works for this point) where Boston is 10th overall after starting the first part of the season eighth. Just picking another stretch where the C's have had problems, since February 1st, the Celtics are 15th in D-rating.

Its seems obvious that Ainge/Zarren will remedy this in the offseason one way or another. If Kyrie is staying, they will get him more wing help - at present, the pairing of him and Morris together yield the worst team D-Rating of all the regulars.
 
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TripleOT

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If Kyrie bolts, the Celtics will have to build through the draft. They will have three or four first round picks, and if the Clippers ever start fucking losing, in the top 23. Assuming they get 14, 18 and 24, and assuming no team is willing to do a 1 for 3 trade for a top 6 pick, they will have three chance to hit a home run. Looking at former picks in those particular spots, 24 has had more decent players the last three decades than 14 and 18 combined (from my arbitrary, cursory look, 10 of the last 30 players picked at 24 were decent NBA starters, 7 from pick 18, and pick 14 has been trash, with Peja Stojakovic the best one. And yes, Marcus Morris was picked at 14).

If a team like the Wiz wanted to do a teardown, the Cs could ship out Hayward and a couple of firsts for Tatum pal Bradley Beal, and build around three dynamic wing players. If Kyrie walks, they will have to sign Rozier and hope they get Starting Terry (30.9 mpg, 13.5 ppg on 44/41/94% shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 5.5 ast, 1.18 TOs in 11 games) instead of Dogshit Reserve Terry (21,4 mpg, 8.5 ppg on 38/34/75% shooting, 3.7 rebounds, 2.5 ast, 0.79 TO).

If Kyrie leaves with no compensation, the Celtics will fall way behind in the talent race with the Sixers, Bucks, and possibly the Raptors if Kawhi stays. They actually will be more fun to watch than this dysfunctional team, and Stevens is a better coach of a Little Engine That Could type team than an Overladen With Talent squad.
 

benhogan

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That said, amongst the many personnel issues, the Celtics inability/unwillingness to clamp down seems to be pretty glaring. Outside of Smart, Horford and maybe Brown (lately), they lack players capable of playing consistent defense. Baynes and Theis, for all of their energy and hustle, don't have the skill to keep up with better bigs while Irving, Tatum, Morris, Rozier and Hayward either won't or cannot sustain good defensive effort.

It shows in the team defensive ratings (I know that stat sucks but absent something better it works for this point) where Boston is 10th overall after starting the first part of the season eighth. Just picking another stretch where the C's have had problems, since February 1st, the Celtics are 15th in D-rating.

Its seems obvious that Ainge/Zarren will remedy this in the offseason one way or another. If Kyrie is staying, they will get him more wing help - at present, the pairing of him and Morris together yield the lowest team D-Rating of all the regulars.
Clearly, Baynes Hogan won't take this sitting down.

I didn't see tonights mess but I imagine your opinion is being driven by Aldridge's big scoring night (AB was a -8)

BUT Aron Baynes is not a problem defensively. The fact is the guy has played banged up all season and still has by far the best defensive rating in the rotation (Theis isn't far behind). He also had by far, the best defensive rating last season when he started. So you can't use that match-up nonsense HRB touts (unless you are attaching yourself to this bogus theory)

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Clearly, Baynes Hogan won't take this sitting down.

I didn't see tonights mess but I imagine your opinion is being driven by Aldridge's big scoring night (AB was a -7)

BUT Aron Baynes is not a problem defensively. The fact is the guy has played banged up all season and still has by far the best defensive rating in the rotation (Theis isn't far behind). He also had by far, the best defensive rating last season when he started. So you can't use that match-up nonsense HRB touts (unless you are attaching yourself to this bogus theory)

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season
My post did not say Baynes was the problem. His defense has been consistent and decent. But he is limited, currently by ailments and overall by his athleticism.

The main point is that for all the talent on the roster, the Celtics simply don't have the defensive pieces to counter what the opposition is throwing at them.

People can go ahead and suggest alternative lineups and rotations - perhaps the Cs staff haven't thought of those changes. I suspect they have more data than the collective group here however and the reason they aren't making those adjustments is because the net result would likely be larger losses and closer wins.

In short, I suspect that the Cs need to retool their roster rather than changing who plays together. Unfortunately, nothing will happen until the offseason.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clearly, Baynes Hogan won't take this sitting down.

I didn't see tonights mess but I imagine your opinion is being driven by Aldridge's big scoring night (AB was a -8)

BUT Aron Baynes is not a problem defensively. The fact is the guy has played banged up all season and still has by far the best defensive rating in the rotation (Theis isn't far behind). He also had by far, the best defensive rating last season when he started. So you can't use that match-up nonsense HRB touts (unless you are attaching yourself to this bogus theory)

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season
How is it matchup nonsense when Brad has spotted his minutes toward utilizing him in the most advantageous matchups in his limited minutes? You just said this yourself by including "In the games he started." The worst thing for a role player is to be overexposed.
 

benhogan

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How is it matchup nonsense when Brad has spotted his minutes toward utilizing him in the most advantageous matchups in his limited minutes? You just said this yourself by including "In the games he started." The worst thing for a role player is to be overexposed.
He started over 80% of Celtic games last season. Games he didn't start were due to his being banged up from playing the 5. His minutes were against whomever the other team started at the 5 at the start of the1st and 3rd Quarters (ie the opponents best BIG). Brad wasn't playing AB against some inferior BIGS which makes Baynes stats look better than he really is (which has been your case, unless you are backtracking on that?)

DBMH, you said: "Outside of Smart, Horford and maybe Brown (lately), they lack players capable of playing consistent defense"

I haven't seen any stats to make me think this.

IMO Aron Baynes is a very good defensive player, in the same league as the guys you mentioned above him. If you want to criticize his offensive scoring, have at it. BUT he's more than capable of playing consistent defense.

I'll give you one guess who had the best defensive rating for the Detroit Pistons in 2016-17? (before Brad Stevens was playing him in advantageous spots)

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular Season
 
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DJnVa

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I know this is '19-'20 talk in a '18-'19 thread, but since we're digressing...if Kyrie walks, and I sincerely hope he doesn't, would it make sense to go after Kemba? So then build around Kemba, Horford, Smart, Tatum, Hayward, and Brown?
Skipping over the Kemba stuff, but unless there's been some backroom talk between Irving, Stevens, and Ainge that they completely understand his frustration and that next year is a fresh start with AD running beside him, I don't think there's any way he's back. Shorter: I believe Irving likely said "if you can't bring AD in, I'm leaving". Simple as that.
 

BigSoxFan

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Skipping over the Kemba stuff, but unless there's been some backroom talk between Irving, Stevens, and Ainge that they completely understand his frustration and that next year is a fresh start with AD running beside him, I don't think there's any way he's back. Shorter: I believe Irving likely said "if you can't bring AD in, I'm leaving". Simple as that.
Hey, nighthob's Durant scenario is still in play!
 

amarshal2

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I suppose there will always be time left until they're eliminated, but I was thinking this morning that this team is the most disappointing and unlikeable Boston group since the beer and chicken Red Sox of 2011. I've gone from continuously expecting them to figure it out, to thinking perhaps the issue is just effort that will be solved with the intensity of the playoffs, to fully expecting the team to self-destruct in the 1st or 2nd round. It's such a contrast to the insanely likeable Celtics of way back in....last season. I suppose the 2011 Red Sox quickly morphed into the 2013 Red Sox so it only takes a couple changes to have one of the most likeable teams ever become one of the least likeable - or vice versa.

I don't know why or who to blame. This isn't just the weight of expectations. If my fears are realized, hopefully Ainge and Brad have a good idea of what is causing the problems. I do know that Kyrie jacking up deep threes and then blaming Brad after the Charlotte game convinced me he'll probably never have any self awareness and I should stop expecting him to change after each promising news conference.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, and it's so odd. Would this have happened last year without the GH injury? If so, maybe in some ways it's better than Tatum got to play so much last year to become valuable enough to potentially bring back AD.

But if he hadn't played as much last year would this year's "step back" be seen as such when it's only a step back from his great rookie season?

So weird. But since they've apparently checked out on the regular season, I kinda have too. When round 1 starts, I'm back on board, but no more team meetings or bonding plane trips in this regular season will make me think they've figured it out.

I do know that Kyrie jacking up deep threes and then blaming Brad after the Charlotte game convinced me he'll probably never have any self awareness and I should stop expecting him to change after each promising news conference.
As a leader he has a lot of excuses--"Wait til we're at full strength" and "The postseason is really what matters".

But as frustrated as we are on outside, it's gotta be even worse on the inside. It just sucks to have almost punted an entire season.
 

tims4wins

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As a leader he has a lot of excuses--"Wait til we're at full strength" and "The postseason is really what matters".

But as frustrated as we are on outside, it's gotta be even worse on the inside. It just sucks to have almost punted an entire season.
Well, he gets to use those excuses... but only once. If they go out 4-2 in the first round then he can't be taken seriously any more.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He started over 80% of Celtic games last season. Games he didn't start were due to his being banged up from playing the 5. His minutes were against whomever the other team started at the 5 at the start of the1st and 3rd Quarters (ie the opponents best BIG). Brad wasn't playing AB against some inferior BIGS which makes Baynes stats look better than he really is (which has been your case, unless you are backtracking on that?)
This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.

The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......

Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.

Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?

In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake obtuse here ;)

In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump

Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games.;) Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
 
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reggiecleveland

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This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.

The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......

Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.

Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?

In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake abtuse here ;)

In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump

Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games.;) Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
Basketball is getting to be like baseball with pltoon players playing against certain teams and not others. Even at the high school level I had a big kid this year that simply was unplayable against teams with lots of 3pt shooters, but other games he played lots.

I agree with this. My son is fascinated by Taco Fall the 7'6 kid thta played against Duke last night. During the broacast I recall somebody saying he could be in imac NBA player that played in only 30 or 40 games since some teams you simply don't play a 5.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Basketball is getting to be like baseball with pltoon players playing against certain teams and not others. Even at the high school level I had a big kid this year that simply was unplayable against teams with lots of 3pt shooters, but other games he played lots.
Some are attempting more 3s than MLB players get PA. (On a side note, when you think of 3 point % like batting average, it helps put the variance into perspective). The 3 point shot has changed the game so much.
 

joe dokes

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So weird. But since they've apparently checked out on the regular season, I kinda have too. When round 1 starts, I'm back on board, but no more team meetings or bonding plane trips in this regular season will make me think they've figured it out.
We're on to 2010.
 

benhogan

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This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.

The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......

Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.

Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?

In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake abtuse here ;)

In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump

Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games.;) Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
Ugh, gone down the rabbit hole again.

Baynes played restricted minutes at the end of November 2017 (banged up knee) that's when he mostly did not start. As soon as Baynes was healthy he pretty much started the rest of the season. But whatever, Baynes was a huge net positive in 2017-18 and a huge net positive in 2018-19. Most importantly the Celtics are extremely effective when he starts or plays at the 5 with Horford at the 4. And as I have stated and proven numerous times before Al Horford played his best basketball from the 4 last season and this season. Maybe if we saw Al at the 4 more (like we did last season) this team wouldn't underperform as much as it has this season.

"Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7"

1. Tristen Thompson scores 2 points in Game 6
2. TT scores 10 pts and Celtics miss 100 3pt shots in Game 7

Baynes 19mins in each game was hardly the culprit in that Series.
 

DJnVa

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Well, he gets to use those excuses... but only once. If they go out 4-2 in the first round then he can't be taken seriously any more.
Yes. Which is why I'm all in for postseason.

But they've used up all the regular season excuses, with the 14 players meetings and the cross-country flight nonsense.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Ugh, gone down the rabbit hole again.

Baynes played restricted minutes at the end of November 2017 (banged up knee) that's when he mostly did not start. As soon as Baynes was healthy he pretty much started the rest of the season. But whatever, Baynes was a huge net positive in 2017-18 and a huge net positive in 2018-19. Most importantly the Celtics are extremely effective when he starts or plays at the 5 with Horford at the 4. And as I have stated and proven numerous times before Al Horford played his best basketball from the 4 last season and this season. Maybe if we saw Al at the 4 more (like we did last season) this team wouldn't underperform as much as it has this season.

"Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7"

1. Tristen Thompson scores 2 points in Game 6
2. TT scores 10 pts and Celtics miss 100 3pt shots in Game 7

Baynes 19mins in each game was hardly the culprit in that Series.
I am curious why you think the Cs seem to be resistant to employing a move that seems so blatantly obvious to you? Is Stevens/Ainge/Zarren ignoring or unable to access data that you see?

Again, these guys are not above criticism - I have questions about all of them after the way the season has played out, especially Ainge on roster composition.

However for some reason, they appear to be ignoring something you and some others here see as an easy fix to some of the team's problems. What are they missing? Data? An understanding of matchups?
 

benhogan

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I am curious why you think the Cs seem to be resistant to employing a move that seems so blatantly obvious to you? Is Stevens/Ainge/Zarren ignoring or unable to access data that you see?

Again, these guys are not above criticism - I have questions about all of them after the way the season has played out, especially Ainge on roster composition.

However for some reason, they appear to be ignoring something you and some others here see as an easy fix to some of the team's problems. What are they missing? Data? An understanding of matchups?
I wish I knew DeJesus, because all of those guys have forgotten more about basketball then I'll ever know.

I do think the game is evolving to a faster pace and the thoughts of creating an offensive juggernaut by having "5 scorers/multiple wings/small ball" on the floor at once was/is enticing. Brad did play "small" to great success at Butler and he has a lot of the same analytics guys now, maybe they have a bias?

A couple of weeks ago, I (and others around here) noticed Brad & Co capitulated and started playing Horford/Baynes together again. and Horford at the 4. Injuries to our 5s have slowed that attempt.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I wish I knew DeJesus, because all those guys have forgotten more about basketball then I'll ever know.

I do think the game is evolving to a faster game (pace) and the thoughts of creating an offensive juggernaut by having "5 scorers/multiple wings/small ball" on the floor at once was/is enticing. Brad did play "small" to great success at Butler and he has a lot of the same analytics guys now, maybe they have a bias?

A couple of weeks ago, I (and others around here) noticed Brad & Co capitulated and started playing Horford/Baynes together again. Injuries have slowed that attempt.
That is entirely fair. And to reiterate, I think questioning all these people is entirely appropriate.

As I said, I wonder if we have given Ainge too much credit for his grocery shopping. Morris, in particular, now seems like a bad fit though his performance down the stretch last year as well as early in the season make his presence defensible. That said, he has never been a great defender and his offense wasn't that great either. Between contract year pressures and his spotty defense, they appear to have miscalculated on the fit.

The problem is that if Ainge et al were worried enough about Hayward's recovery and Brown/Tatum's development to keep Morris around, they were right to do so. However he simply wasn't the answer, especially playing along side Irving, when it was all said and done.
 

sezwho

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Any season starting off with Celtics fans being glad to have a Morris launching them is fraught with peril.

The traditional and advanced metrics certainly say that Kyrie is excellent, which is also backed up by eyeballs. I'd like to know what some resident coaches/tape watchers have to say about the style of basketball they play with him on the court, as the sets seem to devolve into hero-ball with aggravating regularity. Is it basketball, or just Kyrie wizardry ball they're playing?

As an example, when Tatum made his drives last year it seemed it was often off motion or a screen or ball rotation or something/anything to create some space...while now its like some pre-ordained 4 second long iso-post up nonsense. Sure defenses have wised up to his schtick, but it doesn't help that it all seems so predictable. Do my eyeballs lie? Also, F Kobe and the 20ft one footed turnaround trash.
 

lovegtm

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Is there really anything to question wrt Baynes/Horford at this point? The story seems pretty straightforward:

1. The Celtics were resistant to playing that lineup early, because if you can get small lineups humming, they score a shit-ton of points.
2. Baynes started getting hurt a lot. Horford also had to be managed with his knee issues in Nov/Dec.
3. Once both were back, in Feb/March, Brad started trying them together occasionally, and it looked good.
4. Baynes keeps getting hurt, and now they have to manage Horford again as well.

It looks like the Celtics have been interested in trying out 2-big lineups since somewhere around 50-60% into the season. Unfortunately, they've been lucky to even have both guys available at all during that time.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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That is entirely fair. And to reiterate, I think questioning all these people is entirely appropriate.

As I said, I wonder if we have given Ainge too much credit for his grocery shopping. Morris, in particular, now seems like a bad fit though his performance down the stretch last year as well as early in the season make his presence defensible. That said, he has never been a great defender and his offense wasn't that great either. Between contract year pressures and his spotty defense, they appear to have miscalculated on the fit.

The problem is that if Ainge et al were worried enough about Hayward's recovery and Brown/Tatum's development to keep Morris around, they were right to do so. However he simply wasn't the answer, especially playing along side Irving, when it was all said and done.
Hindsight is 20-20, but it seems like Morris should've been moved around the deadline, as:

(1) his value was probably high after a good first half and we can't use his contract this offseason to match salaries;

(2) moving Morris might have gotten them under the luxury tax - the team this season hasn't been good enough to justify paying the tax and risking the repeater penalty; and

(3) distributing his minutes and shots among Hayward, Brown and Tatum might have made the team better by subtraction.​
 

benhogan

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That is entirely fair. And to reiterate, I think questioning all these people is entirely appropriate.

As I said, I wonder if we have given Ainge too much credit for his grocery shopping. Morris, in particular, now seems like a bad fit though his performance down the stretch last year as well as early in the season make his presence defensible. That said, he has never been a great defender and his offense wasn't that great either. Between contract year pressures and his spotty defense, they appear to have miscalculated on the fit.

The problem is that if Ainge et al were worried enough about Hayward's recovery and Brown/Tatum's development to keep Morris around, they were right to do so. However he simply wasn't the answer, especially playing along side Irving, when it was all said and done.
Your MaMo assessment sounds logical and accurate.

We're all disappointed in this season and are concerned we will lose a valuable asset in Kyrie Irving for nothing due to this seasons underperformance. My Celtics patience is worn pretty thin by now and I didn't even bother to watch yesterday's game (first miss this year).

So apologies to Dejesus and HRB if I have been adversarial. These chicken and beer Celtics are so annoying to follow.
 

lovegtm

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I suppose, if anything, this season makes blowing things up to get AD (and thus keep Kyrie) a lot more palatable.
 

TripleOT

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Despite the struggles all season, I still give this team at least a 30% chance of turning things around in the playoffs. Lots of talent, and they have Kyrie, who could go in every game in a series. Every other top team in the Eastern Conference is flawed, and will be counting on the new additions to avoid a repeat of the playoffs last year.

I don't know if Stevens has lost this team, but the playoffs will give him an excuse to run it possession by possession.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Baynes played restricted minutes at the end of November 2017 (banged up knee) that's when he mostly did not start. As soon as Baynes was healthy he pretty much started the rest of the season. But whatever
Let's not "Whatever"......let's look at what actually happened logically. Yes, there was a window of games when he was on a minutes restriction. During that window were games against Orlando and Brooklyn, two teams Brad didn't start him against in other "non-minutes restricted games" as i pointed out above, Golden State, and Dallas who are two other poor matchups with 3's masquerading as 4's......but wait! During that same window he DID start against Miami and Whiteside so the "Didn't start due to minutes restriction" does really pass here since he actually DID start during that window but NOT against the bad matchups of Orl, Brk, Dal, and GSt.

Baynes was a huge net positive in 2017-18 and a huge net positive in 2018-19. Most importantly the Celtics are extremely effective when he starts or plays at the 5 with Horford at the 4. And as I have stated and proven numerous times before Al Horford played his best basketball from the 4 last season and this season.
Hmmmm, so maybe Brad does understand matchups and how to maximize production with his two bigs while limiting/eliminating the bad matchups

Maybe if we saw Al at the 4 more (like we did last season) this team wouldn't underperform as much as it has this season.
Or more likely we'd perform worse as we'd no longer have those same favorable matchups as when Brad does play them together?

"Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7"
1. Tristen Thompson scores 2 points in Game 6
2. TT scores 10 pts and Celtics miss 100 3pt shots in Game 7

Baynes 19mins in each game was hardly the culprit in that Series.

No, he wasn't the culprit but you missed my point (again). Brad sat him in Game 1 when the Cavs played a Love/LeBron 4/5 and foolishly stuck with the same lineup following a blowout win despite Lue making the adjustment of moving Tristan into the starting lineup for G2......Brad didn't respond until G5 by inserting Baynes into the starting lineup. It's matchups......I'm not anti-Baynes/Horford it's just that as you say below here the game is getting faster which is why we see much less of this combo along with us not being shorthanded anymore.

I do think the game is evolving to a faster pace
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I suppose there will always be time left until they're eliminated, but I was thinking this morning that this team is the most disappointing and unlikeable Boston group since the beer and chicken Red Sox of 2011. I've gone from continuously expecting them to figure it out, to thinking perhaps the issue is just effort that will be solved with the intensity of the playoffs, to fully expecting the team to self-destruct in the 1st or 2nd round. It's such a contrast to the insanely likeable Celtics of way back in....last season. I suppose the 2011 Red Sox quickly morphed into the 2013 Red Sox so it only takes a couple changes to have one of the most likeable teams ever become one of the least likeable - or vice versa.

I don't know why or who to blame. This isn't just the weight of expectations. If my fears are realized, hopefully Ainge and Brad have a good idea of what is causing the problems. I do know that Kyrie jacking up deep threes and then blaming Brad after the Charlotte game convinced me he'll probably never have any self awareness and I should stop expecting him to change after each promising news conference.
It's funny because this is basically the same team as last year. It's just that . . . .

I went back and looked at a couple of box scores from the 16 game winning streak. KI, Al, MM, JB, JT, and MS were all getting 30+ minutes. Everyone else - TRoz, Baynes, and Ojeleye (usually) were getting less than 20. Basically, everyone knew their roles. And they were, as we all know, a supremely likeable team.

But fast forward to this year, and as I said in the game thread, it seems that everyone thinks they are 15% better than they really are (except Al, and I do include GH in this). Plus, Brad is trying to get 8 guys substantial minutes. Plus Plus the reason they are not fun to watch is that they don't seem to trust each other.

I don't know if they are going to turn it around. Part of turning it around is going to be realizing that it is unlikely that everyone can put up stats in every game. Will be interesting to see.
 

Strike4

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The traditional and advanced metrics certainly say that Kyrie is excellent, which is also backed up by eyeballs. I'd like to know what some resident coaches/tape watchers have to say about the style of basketball they play with him on the court, as the sets seem to devolve into hero-ball with aggravating regularity. Is it basketball, or just Kyrie wizardry ball they're playing?
My eyeballs tell me that when Kyrie comes in in the 4th quarter, the Celtics are sometimes reeling and need more of a steadying presence than they are of scoring. There are nice glimmers where Kryie is a facilitator - dishing behind the back for a MaMo or a Horford straight-up three - but so often he goes into desperation scorer mode immediately and it's out of place. It seems to aggravate the teams issues as much as it leads to a positive outcome. The team needs Kyrie to be a leader-as-a-facilitator lots of times, not a leader who sucks all the air out of the room and does not enable his very talented teammates to also score. Which they can.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It's funny because this is basically the same team as last year. It's just that . . . .

I went back and looked at a couple of box scores from the 16 game winning streak. KI, Al, MM, JB, JT, and MS were all getting 30+ minutes. Everyone else - TRoz, Baynes, and Ojeleye (usually) were getting less than 20. Basically, everyone knew their roles. And they were, as we all know, a supremely likeable team.

But fast forward to this year, and as I said in the game thread, it seems that everyone thinks they are 15% better than they really are (except Al, and I do include GH in this). Plus, Brad is trying to get 8 guys substantial minutes. Plus Plus the reason they are not fun to watch is that they don't seem to trust each other.

I don't know if they are going to turn it around. Part of turning it around is going to be realizing that it is unlikely that everyone can put up stats in every game. Will be interesting to see.
The Celtics will need to tighten up their leaky defense to turn anything around. Per cleaningtheglass, Boston, who led the league in '17-18 with the fewest points per 100 possessions allowed, are fifth overall this season. However, if you Van the data - and I think its warranted in this case - they fall to 10th in the league since the start of 2019. And since February 1st, they are 20th!

Their offense has suffered too of late but the drop isn't as precipitous. They are 10th overall this season in points scored per 100 possessions and 11th since the start of the year. However they are 15th since February 1st.

Defense seems easier to fix than offense so that is their only hope. Again, it may be a function of their personnel. They simply don't have that many good defenders on the roster and opposing teams have keyed on this.
 
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chilidawg

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Defense seems easier to fix than offense so that is their only hope. Again, it may be a function of their personnel. They simply don't have that many good defenders on the roster and opposing teams have keyed on this.
They were first in defense last year. Do they miss Larkin that much? Or is Hayward that bad a defender? Maybe Baynes missing time has an effect, but other than that I have a hard time concluding that personnel is the issue.
 

NomarsFool

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My eyeballs tell me that when Kyrie comes in in the 4th quarter, the Celtics are sometimes reeling and need more of a steadying presence than they are of scoring. There are nice glimmers where Kryie is a facilitator - dishing behind the back for a MaMo or a Horford straight-up three - but so often he goes into desperation scorer mode immediately and it's out of place. It seems to aggravate the teams issues as much as it leads to a positive outcome. The team needs Kyrie to be a leader-as-a-facilitator lots of times, not a leader who sucks all the air out of the room and does not enable his very talented teammates to also score. Which they can.
I say this as a Kyrie fan, but I'm getting a little bit tired of the 4 feet behind the line 3PA. Yes, he makes some of them, but I've got to think he's hitting those at no better than a 20% clip. In a similar vein, I also feel like he a little bit too often is being a bit lazy on offense in the 4th quarter - bringing the ball up and just launching a 3PA with 18 seconds left on the clock. You don't need to do it all, Kyrie. Let's keep moving the ball around.

In general, I think Kyrie is not a ball hog and he makes a lot of excellent passes (he's probably at a career high for assists this year). It's just that in the fourth quarter he seems to be trying to do too much on his own, teams are double / triple / quadruple teaming him and he's not shooting for as high a percentage when we need baskets the most. Of course, it doesn't help that the whole team seems to keep going ice cold in the 4th - but Kyrie needs to try and make sure the Celtics stick to their game plan, even when the game is tight.
 

Strike4

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I say this as a Kyrie fan, but I'm getting a little bit tired of the 4 feet behind the line 3PA. Yes, he makes some of them, but I've got to think he's hitting those at no better than a 20% clip. In a similar vein, I also feel like he a little bit too often is being a bit lazy on offense in the 4th quarter - bringing the ball up and just launching a 3PA with 18 seconds left on the clock. You don't need to do it all, Kyrie. Let's keep moving the ball around.

In general, I think Kyrie is not a ball hog and he makes a lot of excellent passes (he's probably at a career high for assists this year). It's just that in the fourth quarter he seems to be trying to do too much on his own, teams are double / triple / quadruple teaming him and he's not shooting for as high a percentage when we need baskets the most. Of course, it doesn't help that the whole team seems to keep going ice cold in the 4th - but Kyrie needs to try and make sure the Celtics stick to their game plan, even when the game is tight.
Completely agree and also think this team is nowhere without Kyrie. The issue isn't him, it's the lack of structure and definition to player roles which leads him to fall back on being "too dog scorer" almost out of instinct.
 

mcpickl

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This is Wrong, Wrong, and more Wrong.

The games which Baynes did not start had nothing to do with some fake belief running around here that playing the 5 gets you more "banged up" than playing any other position. Brad did not start Baynes against specific teams in MULTIPLE GAMES to avoid bad matchups. Without going through each game Baynes didn't start here is a sample of EC teams we saw on more than one occasion during the year.......

Brooklyn - starterd Booker at 5, Hollis-Jefferson and Carroll at 3/4 (matched Baynes up with Mozgov and J.Allen on second unit)
Milwaukee - started Maker at 5, Giannis at 4 (matched Baynes up with Monroe on second unit)
Cleveland - started Love at 5, LeBron at 4
Orlando - stared A.Gordon at 4 (to avoid matchup v. Horford). Only game Baynes started v. Magic was when Gordon was out.

Was Baynes "banged up" only when these above teams were on the schedule or did Brad actually utilize a strategy of avoiding terrible matchups as listed?

In Round 1 of the playoffs, Brad tried starting Baynes against Milwaukee then we lost 2 straight including a blowout and he played sparingly the rest of the series. Did he get "banged up" following those two losses? Yes, i'm being jokingly fake obtuse here ;)

In Round 2 of the playoffs he started every game v. Philly. Healthy, the best healthy, #trump

Prior to Round 3 Aron got hit with the "injury bug" again and didn't start any of the first 4 games.;) Following 2 losses, he mixed it up and started Baynes who was god awful against Tristan in Games 6 & 7.
This is one way to look at it.

Another could be, from the time Baynes took over the starting role around Thanksgiving, the only games Baynes didn't start were games where either Lebron or Giannis were starting at the 4 for their opponents(and oddly one game against Orlando)

I'd say Baynes not starting had a whole lot more to do with keeping Horford off of Lebron/Giannis than Baynes not being able to deal with Thon Maker and Trevor Booker.

Seems to me Lebron/Giannis could be much more the exception of who Baynes can't start against, more than a rule that he shouldn't start against almost anybody.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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They were first in defense last year. Do they miss Larkin that much? Or is Hayward that bad a defender? Maybe Baynes missing time has an effect, but other than that I have a hard time concluding that personnel is the issue.
I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?

Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?

Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:

Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04

So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.

I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is one way to look at it.

Another could be, from the time Baynes took over the starting role around Thanksgiving, the only games Baynes didn't start were games where either Lebron or Giannis were starting at the 4 for their opponents(and oddly one game against Orlando)

I'd say Baynes not starting had a whole lot more to do with keeping Horford off of Lebron/Giannis than Baynes not being able to deal with Thon Maker and Trevor Booker.

Seems to me Lebron/Giannis could be much more the exception of who Baynes can't start against, more than a rule that he shouldn't start against almost anybody.
It wasn’t one game vs Orlando. It was all but one game which is the one Gordon sat out. Booker played for Brooklyn that year and they didn’t start even a stretch 4 they started two 3’s and Brad protected Horford from playing out of position in these games as well as protecting him from LeBron and Giannis. Brad just didn’t treat Horford unfairly even when the team was short handed by forcing him to essentially defend 3’s in these games. Now that he’s added another ring around his trunk and we have a much deeper frontcourt it is even less necessary to have him playing out of position. Again, when they do play together this year it has been against two large and someone immmobile bodies. I expect that part to continue when these situations occur.
 

mcpickl

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It wasn’t one game vs Orlando. It was all but one game which is the one Gordon sat out. Booker played for Brooklyn that year and they didn’t start even a stretch 4 they started two 3’s and Brad protected Horford from playing out of position in these games as well as protecting him from LeBron and Giannis. Brad just didn’t treat Horford unfairly even when the team was short handed by forcing him to essentially defend 3’s in these games. Now that he’s added another ring around his trunk and we have a much deeper frontcourt it is even less necessary to have him playing out of position. Again, when they do play together this year it has been against two large and someone immmobile bodies. I expect that part to continue when these situations occur.
Right, he didn't start against Orlando early in the season, he wasn't the full time starter then.

He took over the starters role permanently on November 30th. From then he started against everybody except Lebron/Giannis at the 4, and the one Orlando game. Started against everybody else. Again, think that's much more about keeping Horford off those guys then anything to do with Baynes. Not wanting to go Horford/Baynes against 3 specific guys shouldn't rule out going Horford/Baynes against everybody else.
 

benhogan

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I'm not anti-Baynes/Horford it's just that as you say below here the game is getting faster which is why we see much less of this combo along with us not being shorthanded anymore.
This is getting tedious. I have zero interest in discussing Aron Baynes usage in November 2017 and I'm a Baynes junkie. It's irrelevant to this season.

If you want to discuss this season lets get down to where you and I stood when the season started and during the course of the season, because there seem to be some communication issues here.

Sounds like you are adjusting your stance. I have gone back and re-read posts to confirm my recollection:

1. You were and have been anti-Horford at the 4 all season. I can point out a dozen posts from you stating this to mcpickl and myself.

Are you changing your stance here?

2. I've always thought it was best to use Baynes against the largest BIG on the other team. I applauded Brad when he did this versus Toronto on Nov. 16th (when Valanciunas wasn't starting and Baynes matched up with him) earlier this season. You know this since you commented at that time and I explained that it's always been matchup dependent in my book. I believe that opponents largest BIG usually resides in their starting line up(~80% of the time) but not always. When an opponent starts small then starting MaMo is fine. I've posted as much several times since pre-season (post #715 on Page 15 on this thread for one)

3. Al Horford is the team's best defensive 4 by a mile, you have claimed Al Horford would get torched in the new Pace and Space era and have sited Wilson Chandler, Dorian Finney-Smith, and PJ Tucker as 4s Horford can't cover. mcpickl has stated there are 20 starting power forwards (4s) from last season that are starting this season. Al Horford played All-Star level defense at the 4 last season, all of sudden because the PACE has gone up 3 possessions/gm, Horford can't play the 4??? that's ridiculous.


4. Aron Baynes/Al Horford combo barely played together the first 30 games they were healthy together this season (less than 30 minutes). So NO, Brad hasn't been matching up at all to start this season. He incessantly played small ball, which you applauded. Al Horford has played less than 5% of his minutes at the 4 this season. Most of that time has happened over the last month and the Jan. 18 @ Memphis game. Its worked every time because the defense improves dramatically, Horford is a more efficient offensive player than MaMo, Baynes sets screens/picks, the offense isn't stagnant and AB hustles back to get into defensive position (which works better then MaMo's jog back after a miss in the Pace n Space Era).

I can re-post all the NBA.com advanced metrics to prove this if you like?
 
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chilidawg

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I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?

Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?

Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:

Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04

So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.

I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
Thanks for doing that work, it's a pretty instructive way to look at the falloff. I think it's becoming increasingly obvious to most here that Morris is a liability on the defensive end. To put his DRPM in context, he's 91st out of 98 power forwards. It ends up being a coaching failure that he's not playing fewer minutes. I've been a Stevens fan, but his rotations have sure been puzzling this year. He also needs to get Kyrie playing more within the system.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?

Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?

Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:

Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04

So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.

I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
By these numbers, the only guys who have fallen off dramatically are Baynes (has been injured), Al (has been injured), and JT (precipitous decline).


Maybe that says it all.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Thanks for doing that work, it's a pretty instructive way to look at the falloff. I think it's becoming increasingly obvious to most here that Morris is a liability on the defensive end. To put his DRPM in context, he's 91st out of 98 power forwards. It ends up being a coaching failure that he's not playing fewer minutes. I've been a Stevens fan, but his rotations have sure been puzzling this year. He also needs to get Kyrie playing more within the system.
I have no insight into how Stevens manages his rotations but again, I think he does so with significant input from the front office. The tricky part of this is that they are dealing with human beings and a guy like Morris, who is playing for his next contract, may not react well to having his minutes curtailed. The younger players can be managed a bit more because they are...young and Irving, Smart and Horford have their roles. Of course, losing and overall inconsistent play also has its challenges so who knows if its the right approach.

That said, the C's have a reason for doing what they have done this season. It may be that people here are right and Stevens doesn't know how to manage a deep team with lots of experienced players. Or it may be that the entire front office isn't as sophisticated as some of us thought they were. We just don't know but again, I have a hard time believing that Stevens has complete autonomy on the line-ups.
 

benhogan

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I have the same questions you and others here do. How can a team that is largely the same in terms of players year over year have such a dramatic fall off?

Is it coaching? I know that satisfies some narrative around these parts. Or is it something else?

Regarding their personnel, its worth noting that by most freely available metrics, several Celtic players have fallen off in defense. Since we all acknowledge problems with D-Rating, let's use another imperfect stat in DRPM. Here are the stats YTD vs the '17-18 numbers:

Horford '18-19: 2.02 '17-18: 2.68
Baynes '18-19: 2.43 '17-18: 3.81
Theis '18-19: 1.89 '17-18: 1.68
Irving '18-19: 0.49 '17-18: -1.35
Tatum '18-19: 0.61 '17-18: 1.97
Morris '18-19: -1.29 '17-18: -1.29
Brown '18-19: 0.50 '17-18: 0.91
Smart '18-19: 1.59 '17-18: 1.61
Rozier '18-19: -0.04 '17-18: 0.04

So, Hoford and Baynes are still very good but not as good as last season - presumably due to age and injuries. Theis is a little better, Irving is significantly better, though we know he has some size limitations and gets attacked because of it. Smart is pretty much consistently good, Morris is consistently bad while Tatum and Brown have both fallen off. Rozier is essentially the same.

I know this data is imperfect but if I had to guess, the Celtics front-court woes coupled with Morris inability to play defense leaves them exposed on multiple fronts. Its just conjecture though and NBA teams have much better metrics to use. Were I coaching against Boston though, there seem to be several attractive switches to take advantage of here. And were I running the team, I am not sure I see an obvious in-house solution to those vulnerabilities.
nice DeJesus, yep lots of questions... you know where I stand, but I'll throw out some more questions.

Maybe Horford and Baynes DRPMs have gone down because they play with Marcus Morris at the 4?

Maybe Horford's DRPM went down because he is a better defensive 4 than 5?

Just looking at the DRPMs. If you want better team defense, why wouldn't you:
pair Baynes/Horford more than 76 minutes this season?
pair Theis/Horford more than 10 minutes this season?
pair Horford/MaMo less than 1100 minutes this season?

Is MaMo's offense that efficient and needed when you have Kyrie, Tatum, Horford, and Smart on the floor?

MaMo played his best basketball the first two months of the season when he played less minutes (~26 mpg). Just guessing here, but maybe upping his minutes and the long grind of the season has led to a less efficient MaMo?
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Right, he didn't start against Orlando early in the season, he wasn't the full time starter then.

He took over the starters role permanently on November 30th. From then he started against everybody except Lebron/Giannis at the 4, and the one Orlando game. Started against everybody else. Again, think that's much more about keeping Horford off those guys then anything to do with Baynes. Not wanting to go Horford/Baynes against 3 specific guys shouldn't rule out going Horford/Baynes against everybody else.
Baynes has started every game after Hayward went down with the exception of the two Milwaukee games prior to not starting the first Orlando game. The second Orlando game was during his minutes restricted period when he also didn’t start against the Magic. The 3rd Orlando game, which he also didn’t start, came in the middle of a 17 game stretch when this was the only opponent who he didn’t start against. The 4th Magic game he did start.....when Gordon was out. It is really that hard to recognize that Aaron Gordon is a bad matchup for a 5?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
30,096
This is getting tedious. I have zero interest in discussing Aron Baynes usage in November 2017 and I'm a Baynes junkie. It's irrelevant to this season.

If you want to discuss this season lets get down to where you and I stood when the season started and during the course of the season, because there seem to be some communication issues here.

Sounds like you are adjusting your stance. I have gone back and re-read posts to confirm my recollection:

1. You were and have been anti-Horford at the 4 all season. I can point out a dozen posts from you stating this to mcpickl and myself.

Are you changing your stance here?
It is relevant to understand that starting Baynes was never part of the plan last season until Hayward went down, Morris and Smart missed 30 games plus Horford and Jaylen missed another dozen.....yet despite being forced to start due to attrition he was still moved to the bench against multiple opponents to protect Horford.

I’m anti-Horford at the 4 for sure......because he’s not a 4 and took one for the team last year. However there are always some matchups where playing them together is the correct play which is evidence by Horfords. numbers at the 4 in these few advantageous lineups.



2. I've always thought it was best to use Baynes against the largest BIG on the other team. I applauded Brad when he did this versus Toronto on Nov. 16th (when Valanciunas wasn't starting and Baynes matched up with him) earlier this season. You know this since you commented at that time and I explained that it's always been matchup dependent in my book. I believe that opponents largest BIG usually resides in their starting line up(~80% of the time) but not always. When an opponent starts small then starting MaMo is fine. I've posted as much several times since pre-season (post #715 on Page 15 on this thread for one)

3. Al Horford is the team's best defensive 4 by a mile, you have claimed Al Horford would get torched in the new Pace and Space era and have sited Wilson Chandler, Dorian Finney-Smith, and PJ Tucker as 4s Horford can't cover. mcpickl has stated there are 20 starting power forwards (4s) from last season that are starting this season. Al Horford played All-Star level defense at the 4 last season, all of sudden because the PACE has gone up 3 possessions/gm, Horford can't play the 4??? that's ridiculous.


4. Aron Baynes/Al Horford combo barely played together the first 30 games they were healthy together this season (less than 30 minutes). So NO, Brad hasn't been matching up at all to start this season. He incessantly played small ball, which you applauded. Al Horford has played less than 5% of his minutes at the 4 this season. Most of that time has happened over the last month and the Jan. 18 @ Memphis game. Its worked every time because the defense improves dramatically, Horford is a more efficient offensive player than MaMo, Baynes sets screens/picks, the offense isn't stagnant and AB hustles back to get into defensive position (which works better then MaMo's jog back after a miss in the Pace n Space Era).

I can re-post all the NBA.com advanced metrics to prove this if you like?
Even if Horford is as effective chasing wings 25-feet from the basket playing out of position as he is defending the paint you are losing a ton on the other end by playing Baynes over Morris or Tatum. As close as Brad is to losing this team by starting and inferior player with guys in contract years this would have been the final nail in the coffin. Brad couldn’t find enough minutes for everyone out of the gate without playing two bigs together which is why he didn’t. There are still some teams for short minutes when I’m in favor of it but there aren’t a ton of them.