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Celtics in 18-19

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by RedOctober3829, May 28, 2018.

  1. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    If you make the Bulls game a "normal" blowout, say 30 points, and get rid of the extra 26 points, the Celtics still have the 3rd best net rating in the NBA, by about half a point. Of course, then you have to adjust the 4th place Nuggets' 45 point win against Atlanta, and so on.

    This is a very good team that can get better (mainly by shortening rotations). They definitely have chemistry issues though, and also effort issues against mediocre/bad opponents. If they locked in against bad teams the way Milwaukee does, they'd probably be 2nd in the East, with about a +8 net rating.
     
  2. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    We can actually look at that. Milwaukee is 21-5 against teams under .500. Boston is 22-7. That's a .5 game difference.
     
  3. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Fair...I'll substitute "if they locked in as well as they clearly are capable of." But yes, the NBA regular season is long and loss of focus happens.
     
  4. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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  5. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  6. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I'm pretty sure at this point that Danny has always been willing to deal Tatum. It's more a question of what else he has to give if he does that.
     
  7. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Speaking of bloodbaths, I expect them to treat Friday night's game at home vs the Lakers like a playoff game. No better opportunity to show Demps the yawning gulf in quality between LA's tradeable talent and ours. I'm hoping for a 2008 Game 6-like production where Lebron benches himself by early in the 4th.
     
  8. Big John

    Big John lurker

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    Why would Tatum and Brown bust their butts to get traded away? This assumes that AD is still a Pelican when the game is played.
     
    #2708 Big John, Feb 4, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2019
  9. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    :eyeroll:
    Yeah Jaylen must love being stuck on one of the few teams where he can’t be a top 3-4 option with 30+ minutes as he approaches his first big payday.
     
  10. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Exactly. If the minutes logjam doesn't open up, I'd want to be elsewhere too. He has #1/2 option offensive potential, and he's not getting the gwme reps he needs currently.
     
  11. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Compare this to the opportunity someone like Booker/Wiggins received and seeing how they were paid. It’s a numbers game when you hit FA.
     
  12. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Was looking for something else and saw this. Thought peeps might be interested in seeing how far the Cs have come.

    Here were the 3p% percentages as of 11.11 / current:

    Jaylen Brown - 27.7% / 32.8%
    Jayson Tatum - 35.4% / 37.3%
    Gordon Hayward - 31.8% / 32.0%
    Al Horford - 30.2% / 36.2%
    Kyrie Irving - 41.9% / 40.8%
    Marcus Smart - 25.6% / 36.7%
    Terry Rozier - 43.2% / 35.3%
    Aron Baynes - 33.3% / 33.3%
    Marcus Morris - 48.3% / 41.4%

    Also of note, Theis is at 41.9%, Semi is 29.2%, and Wanamaker is at 53.6%.

    As a team they are now shooting 37.0%, which is 5th in the league. They were in the 20s during November and December.

    They are also holding opponents to 33.6%, which is second in the league.

    Hadn't looked at year/year stats but as opposed to last year, the Cs are:
    • making 9.8% more FG with 6.6% more FGA
    • at 112.8 Pts, + 8.5%
    • +.014% better FG%, +.034 2PFG%, +.037% FT% but -.007 3PFG%
    • -7.1% FTAs and -2.7% FTs
    • +10.3% ORB (I would guess KI has a good part to do with this); +1.5% TRB but -0.8% DRB
    • +16.8& Assists, +20.4% steals, +26.9% blocks (Time Lord!), and -4.4% TOV.
    The offensive stats appear to be saying that they are playing better than last year.
     
  13. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    The first has been a constant of the Stevens era. There are some interesting articles on how the Celtics encourage players to leave their feet when contesting 3s, even if they pick up a few more 3-point fouls. Tatum, in particular, executes this really well.

    The second...I thought this was common knowledge? I know we sometimes get nostalgic for last year's team, but this year's is light years ahead offensively, both statistically and with the eye test. They've mostly eliminated the grinding 2nd unit shit minutes of 2017-2018. And they can get better offensively simply by tightening rotations, whenever Brad decides to do that.
     
  14. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    But you and HRB and Big John, aren't Jaylen, and you have no idea what he actually thinks, or what motivates him.
     
  15. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I actually think all three handles are FCHWPO's SoSH burner accounts.
     
  16. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    You underestimate the power of my mind-reading technology at your own peril.
     
  17. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    I'm known for doing dumb things.
     
  18. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Of course we don’t KNOW what a player is thinking but suggesting that playing time, touches, numbers, and a max contract AREN’T important to him doesn’t really pass the smell test.
     
  19. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Yeah but that assumes he's both a bright and confident guy. What evidence do we have of that?

    :confused:
     
  20. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    The passing and dribble penetration in the OKC game was easily the best of the year. I don’t think it had much to do with how OKC was playing defense. It had to do with off ball movement and looking to make the pass. For once it wasn’t five guys standing around to do a drive and dish back out to the three point line.

    If they can make performances like that the norm they’ll make the finals. Huge if.
     
  21. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    when they cut and pass they are awesome. we have seen this all year (some stretches longer than others) - the intensity and focus are the questions. For example: Up by 17 do they continue to cut and pas or jack up a three off the dribble with 17 seconds on the shot clock. Too often the decay into the jacked up three when up by a large margin.

    Also their deeper bench pieces are interesting in Semi, Theis and lesser degree Wanna-player in that they can give some passible minutes in spot situations. While they are thin if they are down a wing or baynes these guys afford them to not have to run the main-rotation guys into the round to cover.
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    You should re-wind that 2nd quarter if you have the time. The final minute in particular was comically abysmal by the Thunder.
     
  23. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    Not everybody fits into your little boxes. I'd guess that playing time certainly matters to most, but the rest is pure conjecture. Winning matters to many as well.
     
  24. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    None of this has to be mutually exclusive. I think that Brown is *probably* smart enough to understand that most GMs that would seek to sign him *probably* have a fair idea of what he can do. In other words, his playing time this year wont really affect his market. For this year, at least, winning as a non-starter *probably* is a good counterbalance for the more minutes he'd like to be playing. This year.
     
  25. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Morris out tonight with knee soreness. Probably somewhat legit, but they probably also like how sitting the vets gets the young guys amped up for playing time, and hopefully avoids letdown games against CLE-type teams.
     
  26. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Member SoSH Member

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    I’m assuming Jaylen to the starting lineup? Will be interesting how he plays given the start.
     
  27. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    I guess the CAVs starting lineup: Burks, Sexton, Clarkson, Zizic, Osman

    Jaylen would be a good choice but wouldn't surprise me if Brad goes with Gordon.

    Does anyone know the status of TL? Would like to see him get minutes against the Cavs.
     
  28. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I will lose my shit if he goes with Gordon over Jaylen in the starting lineup. For multiple reasons.
     
  29. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    Without Kyrie, he needs 2 anyway.
     
  30. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Brad thinks of 2-4 as pretty interchangeable, and I think Hayward would get the start if it weren't for the whole "Jaylen being better than he" thing.
     
  31. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Agreed, Jaylen has been playing great for a few months now, he has shaken off whatever had him off earlier this season (injured hand?)

    BUT Brad may feel Jaylen is better off as a top 2 offensive option with the 2nd unit instead of being the 4th option with the starting group. Most importantly he should get 30mpg regardless

    Your Brown support has reached my Baynesian level :)
     
  32. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Really? Probably better things to save your shit for.

    Why does it even matter? They'll both play plenty of minutes whether they start or not.

    It's a February game vs Cleveland.
     
  33. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Yep Kyrie out...

    TL questionable
     
  34. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    haha yes, although the dude is flat-out earning it of late
     
  35. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Gordon hasn't started since before Xmas. Jaylen has started twice. No reason to think that's different.
     
  36. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Oh, I agree. I just haven't lost my shit in a few days, and I kind of miss it.
     
  37. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    Brown started and Hayward was better. Go figure.
     
  38. bigq

    bigq Member SoSH Member

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    Yep the offense has improved but the defense, despite the improvements in steals and blocks, is not as good as last year specifically in terms of PA/G (100.4 for last season vs. 105.8 this season). Scoring is up league wide this season though and has increased by 4.2 points per game.

    -7.1% FTAs stuck out to me. A lot of talk in the game threads about the disparity in trips to the charity stripe between the Celtics and their opponents which is real and more of a factor this year compared to last. The Celtics have lost a handful of close games this season and it seems like a couple of extra free throws could have changed the outcome of at least a couple of those.

    For the record, the Celtics are at 35-19 this season vs. 39-16 on this date last year.
     
  39. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    Here is a question that at least 50 people here can answer instantly for me:

    So if BOS trades Tatum for Davis when they can and then factoring in FA and who can/will realistically stay, what is the BOS roster this summer besides Kyrie? I'm curious how a Durant and kids led Knicks team would compare, just as a very general idea for now.
     
  40. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    In addition to Tatum, you can subtract Horford (opt-out), Rozier, Morris. They will almost certainly be replaced by lower tier veteran FA or possibly scrubs from the Pelicans' roster.
     
  41. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Isn't it possible they'd match on Rozier to have bodies? I think Smart would be the one gone. Maybe Rozier would be too. I don't entirely get the whole RFA process and holds and all that. I just think if they can make an AD deal and still have the option to match Rozier, they would.
     
  42. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    My thoughts are that Rozier would agitate to GTFO if he realizes that he's going to spend the next X years backing up Kyrie. But that's just speculation on my part.
     
  43. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Yeah but it’s logical speculation kinda like I will speculate that it’s going to be warm in Florida this spring. Rozier is surely going to be the starting PG for someone on opening night next year. It may be Phoenix, NY, Orlando, Chicago, or someone else......but it’s going to be somewhere.
     
  44. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Who do you have going to NOP for AD?

    Off the top of my head, KI, AD, GH, assume JB stays, Baynes has a player option; Semi; and Yabu.. I'm assuming Al opts out, but maybe he is happy here. Rozier is probably gone one way or another.

    Depending on trade, maybe Smart, Williams, and one of what is looking like 2 1st round picks. I'm sure DA would like to resign MaMo but probably is out of the price range.
     
  45. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    If Al opts out, it's probably to sign an extension at more years and less AAV.

    As said, Rozier is gone.

    People are drastically undervaluing Smart, and Ainge is going to do everything he can to not make him part of the deal imo.
     
  46. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    I'm pretty sure Boston values Smart more than every other team in the league. I'm not saying he doesn't have value, I'm saying that the ways that he adds value are not as readily apparent to teams that don't watch him every game or see him in practice. Therefore, I think it's highly unlikely he is traded. I just don't think other teams would see him as valuable as the Celtics do.
     
  47. ZMart100

    ZMart100 Member SoSH Member

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    Smart going out would be more about finding matching salaries than adding value to the trade for NO.

    AD will be making $27m, so the Celtics would need to send about $25.5m. Tatum's $7.8m leaves the Celtics needing to find $14.7m. Smart's $12m is an obvious way to get most of the way there. Yabu's $3.1m would then be enough to complete the trade.

    However, Ainge is more creative about this than I am, so he might find some clever way to keep Smart.
     
  48. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    So after the Celtics claim title 18 this spring, does Ainge still break the team up to go after AD?
     
  49. In my lifetime

    In my lifetime Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Smart with his favorable contract is a tremendous piece of a trade and is not going to be moved for the sake of matching salaries. A sign and trade of Rozier is much more likely as an add on.
     
  50. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    BOS would only haveto come up with 21.6 million in matching salary, right?
     

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