Celtics in 18-19

Jimbodandy

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I wasn’t in favor of Kyrie airing things out publicly but Jaylen has every right to be drilled by the veterans in the huddle at the time of the MaMo incident based on Jaylen’s lack of hustle which began the tussle.
I agree. Point is that every one of them except maybe Smart takes a play off here and there because they're pissed that they didn't get a call or they're letting bad shooting or something distract them at the other end. You don't need to complain to the media. But it's also a good idea to avoid yelling at guys on the court and in huddles. He's clearly a guy who works at things, and apparently he's a guy who has mental lapses. We know. He knows. His teammates know. Snapping at being publicly embarrassed again is understandable to me. Certainly at 22, I would be asking someone if they would prefer to step outside by now.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I agree. Point is that every one of them except maybe Smart takes a play off here and there because they're pissed that they didn't get a call or they're letting bad shooting or something distract them at the other end. You don't need to complain to the media. But it's also a good idea to avoid yelling at guys on the court and in huddles. He's clearly a guy who works at things, and apparently he's a guy who has mental lapses. We know. He knows. His teammates know. Snapping at being publicly embarrassed again is understandable to me. Certainly at 22, I would be asking someone if they would prefer to step outside by now.
Maybe we don't know and there is more to Jaylen Brown behind the scenes. We just assume he and Tatum are great character guys but that Rozier is not.

Maybe they are all great guys and this happens on every team.
 

Jimbodandy

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Maybe we don't know and there is more to Jaylen Brown behind the scenes. We just assume he and Tatum are great character guys but that Rozier is not.

Maybe they are all great guys and this happens on every team.
Of course we have no idea.

I don't see/hear anything about anyone being a bad apple. There's no doubt that they're different guys with different personalities. There has been a lot of talk about Jaylen "thinking too much", which is often code for "lets the last play affect the next play". We see that from all players, whenever someone does a heat check or, conversely, passes up an open shot that they normally take. But there are of course degrees to this. And I get why a more focused veteran would have a problem with that and would care enough to take corrective action. There are good ways to do that and some that are less productive.
 

DJnVa

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Some interesting things there, especially the following tweets....Hayward w/out Rozier has an offensive rating nearly the same as Kyrie.

Every single player except Brown is better with Rozier off the floor. And Brown's difference is negligible.
 

benhogan

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Brad needs to cut back Rozier's minutes/role, pronto. Take him out of the rotation. The offense can easily run through Kyrie, Smart, Al or Gordon at the top.

With half the season gone, I hope Brad has had enough w/Rozier's garbage effort/play from the bench. That quick timeout should speak volumes to how Brad felt. I'd expect the team to start playing better with rotations being tightened up. Please, no more Rozier in high leverage situations.

Here are some other easy 2nd half fixes:
-Gordon, no more back-to-backs. Maybe a week off when Baynes gets back to give him a breather.
-Horford needs to split minutes at the 4/5, and no more back-to-backs. 30MPG at the 5 battling young BIGs in the first 20 games wore him down to a nub. It's obvious the 32yr old Al can't handle that workload against the Embiids, Drummonds, etc of the world. Horford, strictly at the 5, isn't half the player he was last season. It was a mistake from Day 1 and needs to get corrected.
-Baynes, when back, needs to be matched up against the other teams #1 BIG and play 20MPG
-Semi needs to stop gunning from the 3, his role is a physical/aggressive, defense-first bigger wing. He can work on his 3 during garbage time or the D league.

Otherwise, lots of positives:
-Kyrie is laser-focused/motivated
-MaMo has been our MVP
-Tatum continues to develop/improve
-Brown is back/developing and would benefit from getting some of those Rozier minutes
-Smart is shooting well and makes for a nice combo w/Ky
-Theis/TL can give high energy short minutes at the 5.

This is all in Brad's hands. If he continues to play small ball (ie. Rozier on the floor with 2 other guards) the Celtics will continue to get inconsistent results. It's really that simple.
 
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amarshal2

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Terry Rozier is a horrible fit for this team, in his current form, and this team immediately gets better with his subtraction.

Isn’t this because when there’s no Rozier there’s usually a Kyrie? What percentage of the minutes this season have they both been off the floor?
 

benhogan

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Isn’t this because when there’s no Rozier there’s usually a Kyrie? What percentage of the minutes this season have they both been off the floor?
Kyrie and Terry have played a total of 239mins together.
Terry has played 976mins (43 games) this season.
Kyrie has played 1220 mins (38 games) this season.
Celtics have played 2084 mins (43 games - 4 OT) this season.
You can do the division and come up with your conclusions.

Rozier was great when he came in for an injured Kyrie last season.
Rozier has been a below avg. bench piece this season.
The Celtics don't have enough minutes for better players then Terry.
Rozier's value is if Kyrie goes down for an extended period of time (Kyrie insurance).
Playing Kyrie+Rozier together forces the team to play small and it becomes offensively stagnant (100.5 off rtg). Celtic small ball = Players standing around the perimeter looking for their shot trying to make individual moves w/the ball. Little to no picks, screens, rolls, cuts, movement, off. boards/tip outs, etc.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2
 

DJnVa

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Isn’t this because when there’s no Rozier there’s usually a Kyrie? What percentage of the minutes this season have they both been off the floor?
Some of it. But look at Kyrie's numbers when he plays with Rozier. Based just on NetRtg, he's Kevin Durant with no Rozier, and Dante Exum with him.

Horford is Westbrook with him and Yogi Ferrell without. Hayward goes from Brogdon to Ferrell.

Tatum goes from Draymond Green to....Terry Rozier. lol When Rozier is on the floor with Tatum he turns Tatum into himself.

I know there's other factors there, but can anyone isolate any other factor having such a huge impact on essentially EVERY OTHER PLAYER?


I'm not sure how to isolate exactly who's costing us games, but in losses, Rozier's NetRtg is -18.3 with a TS% of .406, both the worst on the team. Hayward is -14, Brown -12.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm not sure how to isolate exactly who's costing us games, but in losses, Rozier's NetRtg is -18.3 with a TS% of .406, both the worst on the team. Hayward is -14, Brown -12.
I don't know how much this means but the following are the Cs Net Points in wins:

Jayson Tatum = +327
Kyrie Irving = +293
Marcus Morris = +223
Marcus Smart = +207
Gordon Hayward = +202
Jaylen Brown = +157
Daniel Theis = +149
Al Horford = +148
Terry Rozier = +140
Aron Baynes = +130
Semi Ojeleye = +94
PJ Dozier = +12
Brad Wanamaker = -1
Guerschon Yabusele = -4
Robert Williams = -27

And here are the numbers for Cs losses:

Terry Rozier = -136
Gordon Hayward = -123
Jaylen Brown = -122
Jayson Tatum = -86
Al Horford = -54
Marcus Morris = -49
Marcus Smart = -45
Aron Baynes = -45
Semi Ojeleye = -40
Daniel Theis = -36
Kyrie Irving = -32
Robert Williams = -15
Guerschon Yabusele = +15
Brad Wanamaker = +18

Seems like the best barometer of whether the Cs are going to win is Jayson Tatum.

Kyrie Irving = +261
Jayson Tatum = +241
Marcus Morris = +174
Marcus Smart = +162
Daniel Theis = +113
Al Horford = +94
Aron Baynes = +85
Gordon Hayward = +79
Semi Ojeleye = +54
Jaylen Brown = +35
Brad Wanamaker = +17
PJ Dozier = +12
Guerschon Yabusele = +11
Terry Rozier = +4
Robert Williams = -42
 

Big John

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I didn't think that much addition would occur from Rozier's subtraction, but some of those numbers are incriminating.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Isn’t this because when there’s no Rozier there’s usually a Kyrie? What percentage of the minutes this season have they both been off the floor?
I think it's more telling that the players Rozier more commonly shares the floor with consistently excel when not playing with him, specifically Gordon Hayward and Daniel Theis. If you simply replace Terry's minutes running the offense with Hayward, this team gets a thousand times better. It's not just the numbers here, the eye test seems to back this up completely.

This was kind of interesting, however:

Theis W/ Rozier
Minutes: 182
Net: 1.11
Off: 103.25
Def: 102.14

Theis W/O Rozier
Minutes: 174
Net: 21.99
Off: 123.91
Def: 101.92
 

DJnVa

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The defensive numbers don't move a hell of a lot (Hayward's is much better without Rozier, while Smart's is much better with him, but everyone else's stays about the same, +/- 2 points), but the offensive ratings for Kyrie, Hayward, Tatum, Morris, Smart, Jaylen, and Horford moves an average of 9.5 points lower when they play with Rozier--and they ALL go down. Removing Brown from the equation and they go down almost 11 points each.

He's killing the offense. And I think half the season is enough time to figure that out. The eyeball test shows us and the numbers show us.

Kyrie's health is a complicating factor, but I think they need to make a move--they need to assess what would happen if they bench him, but then need him if Kyrie goes down--do they think he'd respond well. If not, then they need to deal him. Or they may need to deal him anyway.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Kudos to Sheehan for recognizing the fact that Rozier played a huge role during the Cs run last spring. I know they fell short but aside from someone like Nader, I have a soft spot for all the guys who played meaningful minutes for the Cs the past two seasons. Even Rozier whom some would understandably sell off for peanuts if given the chance.
 

nighthob

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That's a terribly facile article. I'll also add that as of now Rozier has likely played himself out of the free agency market, because the sort of deal other teams would need to offer would be a huge gamble given Rozier's performance outside that small window last spring.

T-Ro may be experiencing buyer's remorse on turning down Boston's extension offer (and doubly so since the extension would have made him easier to move to another team and earn him his desired role) these days.

I suspect that he gets thrown into an Anthony Davis deal this summer. I guess another option might be Dallas if the Mavericks succeed in completing a deal with the Suns for DSJ. Rozier, as a 6'2" scoring guard, probably fits better with Doncic. Not sure how it works, though. The Suns want DSJ for Jackson, but JJ's been a bust and the Mavs are going to want more than that. Maybe a three way where Jackson and Rozier land in Dallas, DSJ in Phoenix, and Melton and a future pick go to Boston?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That's a terribly facile article. I'll also add that as of now Rozier has likely played himself out of the free agency market, because the sort of deal other teams would need to offer would be a huge gamble given Rozier's performance outside that small window last spring.

T-Ro may be experiencing buyer's remorse on turning down Boston's extension offer (and doubly so since the extension would have made him easier to move to another team and earn him his desired role) these days.

I suspect that he gets thrown into an Anthony Davis deal this summer. I guess another option might be Dallas if the Mavericks succeed in completing a deal with the Suns for DSJ. Rozier, as a 6'2" scoring guard, probably fits better with Doncic. Not sure how it works, though. The Suns want DSJ for Jackson, but JJ's been a bust and the Mavs are going to want more than that. Maybe a three way where Jackson and Rozier land in Dallas, DSJ in Phoenix, and Melton and a future pick go to Boston?
If the Cs get Melton AND a pick for half a season of Rozier, Ainge should get executive of the 21st Century.
 

mauf

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Other teams have seen what we’ve seen. Rozier has essentially no trade value at this point. The decision is between keeping him around and cutting his minutes, or moving him in an addition-by-subtraction deal.

The more interesting question is what to do with Jaylen. He’s not an unmitigated negative on the current team like Rozier is, but he’s not fitting in with the team in any sense of the word. And unlike Rozier, Jaylen still has trade value — I have little doubt that he could be flipped for someone who will be a better player and a better fit this year and next. The downside, of course, would be giving up his upside beyond 2019-20. And for a team that’s going to be over the cap for the foreseeable future, that’s significant, even if you don’t think Jaylen’s next contract will be great value for money.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Other teams have seen what we’ve seen. Rozier has essentially no trade value at this point. The decision is between keeping him around and cutting his minutes, or moving him in an addition-by-subtraction deal.

The more interesting question is what to do with Jaylen. He’s not an unmitigated negative on the current team like Rozier is, but he’s not fitting in with the team in any sense of the word. And unlike Rozier, Jaylen still has trade value — I have little doubt that he could be flipped for someone who will be a better player and a better fit this year and next. The downside, of course, would be giving up his upside beyond 2019-20. And for a team that’s going to be over the cap for the foreseeable future, that’s significant, even if you don’t think Jaylen’s next contract will be great value for money.
I find it hard to believe that there isn’t a single GM out there who wouldn’t discount some of Rozier’s struggles this year to poor roster fit. His value is certainly reduced from the summer but I doubt it’s zero. We’re still talking about a 24 year-old kid on a rookie deal who averaged 16/5/6 in 19 playoff games. If I’m a team like Orlando, I would gladly pay a reduced price to see what I can get out of Terry.

As for Jaylen, I think he’s untouchable until the summer when he’d be needed for the AD chase. I’m sure Danny could find someone who might help the current team more but he certainly isn’t going to make any lesser moves that involve some of his AD trade chips.
 

mauf

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I find it hard to believe that there isn’t a single GM out there who wouldn’t discount some of Rozier’s struggles this year to poor roster fit. His value is certainly reduced from the summer but I doubt it’s zero. We’re still talking about a 24 year-old kid on a rookie deal who averaged 16/5/6 in 19 playoff games. If I’m a team like Orlando, I would gladly pay a reduced price to see what I can get out of Terry.

As for Jaylen, I think he’s untouchable until the summer when he’d be needed for the AD chase. I’m sure Danny could find someone who might help the current team more but he certainly isn’t going to make any lesser moves that involve some of his AD trade chips.
I think you’re right about the timing of a Jaylen move. I don’t think AD is coming here, but even a “Jaylen + Hayward for someone else’s non-superstar max guy” deal would be too disruptive to pull off at the deadline.

We can agree to disagree on Rozier’s value. I don’t see why anyone would give up a rotation-worthy player to rent Rozier for two months. Maybe a team that’s over the cap would give us a 2nd so they could re-sign Rozier without touching their MLE, but the pick probably wouldn’t yield someone who would ever crack our rotation.
 

benhogan

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I think you’re right about the timing of a Jaylen move. I don’t think AD is coming here, but even a “Jaylen + Hayward for someone else’s non-superstar max guy” deal would be too disruptive to pull off at the deadline.

We can agree to disagree on Rozier’s value. I don’t see why anyone would give up a rotation-worthy player to rent Rozier for two months. Maybe a team that’s over the cap would give us a 2nd so they could re-sign Rozier without touching their MLE, but the pick probably wouldn’t yield someone who would ever crack our rotation.
The one team that would love to have Rozier is the 76ers. But I'd rather have Terry at the end of the bench (as Kyrie insurance) then help Philly (and garner a 2nd round pick or a young player).
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The one team that would love to have Rozier is the 76ers. But I'd rather have Terry at the end of the bench (as Kyrie insurance) then help Philly (and garner a 2nd round pick or a young player).
I was gonna half joking suggest a Rozier for Fultz deal, but Fultz makes way too much money.
 

mcpickl

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Other teams have seen what we’ve seen. Rozier has essentially no trade value at this point. The decision is between keeping him around and cutting his minutes, or moving him in an addition-by-subtraction deal.

The more interesting question is what to do with Jaylen. He’s not an unmitigated negative on the current team like Rozier is, but he’s not fitting in with the team in any sense of the word. And unlike Rozier, Jaylen still has trade value — I have little doubt that he could be flipped for someone who will be a better player and a better fit this year and next. The downside, of course, would be giving up his upside beyond 2019-20. And for a team that’s going to be over the cap for the foreseeable future, that’s significant, even if you don’t think Jaylen’s next contract will be great value for money.
I don't think this is true. His value is definitely lower than it was over the summer, but any team that was interested in him then probably still is now, assuming they haven't filled that spot.

I'd think anyone that wanted him as a starter saw enough in last years playoffs that he'd still be worth a shot to grab him now and have his RFA rights this summer, even though he's been bad in a bench role this year.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Other teams have seen what we’ve seen. Rozier has essentially no trade value at this point.
The only reason TRoz has no trade value is teams that could really use him aren't playoff teams so why give up anything of value when the Cs can't match any reasonable offer.

It will be interesting to see what his market is like over the offseason but someone is going to see him in that team's starting backcourt.
 

amarshal2

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Other teams have seen what we’ve seen. Rozier has essentially no trade value at this point. The decision is between keeping him around and cutting his minutes, or moving him in an addition-by-subtraction deal.

The more interesting question is what to do with Jaylen. He’s not an unmitigated negative on the current team like Rozier is, but he’s not fitting in with the team in any sense of the word. And unlike Rozier, Jaylen still has trade value — I have little doubt that he could be flipped for someone who will be a better player and a better fit this year and next. The downside, of course, would be giving up his upside beyond 2019-20. And for a team that’s going to be over the cap for the foreseeable future, that’s significant, even if you don’t think Jaylen’s next contract will be great value for money.
Jaylen Brown has been good for a while now.
 

amarshal2

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Kyrie and Terry have played a total of 239mins together.
Terry has played 976mins (43 games) this season.
Kyrie has played 1220 mins (38 games) this season.
Celtics have played 2084 mins (43 games - 4 OT) this season.
You can do the division and come up with your conclusions.

Rozier was great when he came in for an injured Kyrie last season.
Rozier has been a below avg. bench piece this season.
The Celtics don't have enough minutes for better players then Terry.
Rozier's value is if Kyrie goes down for an extended period of time (Kyrie insurance).
Playing Kyrie+Rozier together forces the team to play small and it becomes offensively stagnant (100.5 off rtg). Celtic small ball = Players standing around the perimeter looking for their shot trying to make individual moves w/the ball. Little to no picks, screens, rolls, cuts, movement, off. boards/tip outs, etc.

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2
Thanks. Of the time when Terry isn’t playing, Kyrie plays 89% of the time. I’m sure if you take out the deep bench players during garbage time that number goes up.

I agree Terry has been a rough fit but a big portion of that gap is because the rest of the time he’s replaced by roughly the 10th best player in the world.
 

DJnVa

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Kyrie called Lebron to apologize to him after the Orlando game, talk about how to lead young team.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Kyrie called Lebron to apologize to him after the Orlando game, talk about how to lead young team.

Kyrie is officially entering a gag order territory from me. Paraphrasing "I called Lebron to tell him I just now realized how hard it was to be you, dealing with me in the early days. I'm like you now, dealing with these young talented kids, and it's harder than I thought. What do you recommend I do to put these kids in their place?"

Fuck him. Just shut up and play like you did tonight. Enough's enough. You're great, but you aren't Lebron. And I'll tell you one thing, the more you fucking talk about how much you need to lead these "young guys," the more they're gonna eventually tune you out.

I'm surprised he didn't just say "Hey Dad, now that I have my own kids, I'm so sorry for what I put you through when I was growing up." Yeah, I said it, Lebron is your Daddy. Self-righteous, condescending blowhard....But loved you tonight.
 
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Ed Hillel

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This dude think he’s like 37 year old Paul Pierce or something, who fought his ass off for 13 years to get a championship built around him. It seems really offputting to me and I’m not sure how it plays in the locker room, but maybe they like him. I have no idea.

Fuck apologizing to LeBron for anything, though. Delonte did it right.
 

chilidawg

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I don't think this is true. His value is definitely lower than it was over the summer, but any team that was interested in him then probably still is now, assuming they haven't filled that spot.

I'd think anyone that wanted him as a starter saw enough in last years playoffs that he'd still be worth a shot to grab him now and have his RFA rights this summer, even though he's been bad in a bench role this year.
It's hard to reconcile last years playoff Rozier and this years version. I still think the Celtics ceiling is higher with Rozier (and Brown and Hayward) than without, but that only works if all buy in to their roles. All three were good tonight. Rozier has a ways to go to show me that he's going to be a contributor to a championship team off the bench, but if I'm Ainge I don't trade him.
 

amarshal2

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Why would you not, when suggesting he’s turned a corner? He also shooting .619 from the line in January. These are all small samples, arbitrarily chosen.
If you go back another month the stats are basically the same. He had an awful start, turned a corner around thanksgiving and has been good since. His past two months look like the totality of last year.

All told, the sample isn’t small or arbitrary.
 

The Needler

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If you go back another month the stats are basically the same. He had an awful start, turned a corner around thanksgiving and has been good since. His past two months look like the totality of last year.

All told, the sample isn’t small or arbitrary.
Yeah, that's not true. He didn't just have an awful start. If you break his season down into 5-game increments, 5 out of 8 (including 2 of the last 4) are worse than his last season by FG%, 7 out of 8 (including 3 of the last 4) are worse than last year by 3pt%, and yeah, he still stinks from the free throw line. His season has been consistent in its crappiness, and much of the recent numbers are empty garbage time crap.

Do you really believe he's been good since Thanksgiving? I mean, were you watching all these games? Because I was. he was .345/.150/.444 in the six games between December 14th and Christmas. Was that good, seriously?
 

amarshal2

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Yeah, that's not true. He didn't just have an awful start. If you break his season down into 5-game increments, 5 out of 8 (including 2 of the last 4) are worse than his last season by FG%, 7 out of 8 (including 3 of the last 4) are worse than last year by 3pt%, and yeah, he still stinks from the free throw line. His season has been consistent in its crappiness, and much of the recent numbers are empty garbage time crap.

Do you really believe he's been good since Thanksgiving? I mean, were you watching all these games? Because I was. he was .345/.150/.444 in the six games between December 14th and Christmas. Was that good, seriously?
It absolutely is true.

2017: 46.5 / 39.5 / 64.4
Dec18: 49.2 / 34.1 / 70.0
Jan19: 51.4 / 40.9 / 64.7

In what world is that not "basically the same"? He was inconsistent and streaky from game to game last year, too.

You wanna read about arbitrary small sample sizes, check out your own post.
 

The Needler

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No, he wasn't. Take a look at his net ratings. He;s got about as many double-digit negative ratings in his last 20 games as he did all year last season. But congratulations on your commitment to ignoring reality.
 

amarshal2

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No, he wasn't. Take a look at his net ratings. He;s got about as many double-digit negative ratings in his last 20 games as he did all year last season. But congratulations on your commitment to ignoring reality.
He also started and played with the starters every single game last year vs playing with a unit that’s struggling this year.

Last year
In October he shot .429/.333
In January he shot .410/.278
In February he shot .445/.365

He's also got the right hand injury. Guy won't even dunk it with that hand. He had another opportunity tonight and put it in softly. All his monster jams have been with his left.
 
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Jimbodandy

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amarshal2 said:
You wanna read about arbitrary small sample sizes, check out your own post.
Qft

Why back up cherry picking accusations with cherry picking?

Brown hasn't been last year Brown every night, but he has been that guy a shitload of nights in the last month plus.

Rozier was a different guy last night. Maybe he follows his online press. He played defense like it mattered. That TR is a good player.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Wow, what a great win for the Celtics yesterday.
  • Kyrie's 27 and 18 was a career high in assists for him, and those numbers do refelect how great he was in this game. The comments afterward are a different story, but I just think that's going to be part of the package with him, regrettable as it is. It's OK if he keeps playing like he did tonight.
  • Good Hayward tonight. He made an immediate impact in the first half making shots and creating (10 and 4 in his first stint off the bench.
  • Horford had just 10 points until relatively late in the third, then got the 2-man game (and his 3 point shot) going with Kyrie and finished with 24.
  • Baynes has a great return: 14 minutes, 9 points, a key three, and gave the Celtics some size to match up with Monroe
  • Tatum was only 6-16, but he did lead the team in rebounds, hit some key shots down the stretch, and in the past few games he seems to be moving in the right direction in terms of shot selection. I kind of think his fallaway shot has been a sort of crutch for him - it's a shot he knows he can get for himself any time he wants it, so he goes to it too often and in the wrong situations. But I think we are starting to see some signs of Tatum trying to get better shots for himself.
  • Brown lacks consistency, perhaps partly because of the hand injury, but he's doing some things better than last year.