Yeah, the only reason I find this story credible is that I could see them really valuing Jaren Jackson Jr. and wanting to trade for him.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Simmons also mentioned the trade up rumor on the podcast that came out today. His version was Rozier/Sac/another pick to target Doncic if he slides...
Could they include both the Sac pick and the Memphis pick, or would they have to hold onto the Memphis pick to give in case the Sac pick ends up #1?
This probably belongs in the 2018 Draft thread, but I'm at peace with the idea that our next top rookie will be in next year's draft rather than this year's. I have more love than usual for the top end of this draft class - I'm no draftnik but there's wide consensus about the depth here. But moving that high up, at the point where each team's picks are already known, seems to always carry an irrationally high price tag given the uncertainties of player development. Far better to do as we've done, taking teams' future draft picks when we can more clearly see how screwed they're likely to be in 2-4 years, and they rate their own future picks less highly than we do. That means less instant gratification but more value accumulation, and greater ability to go from good players to great players, as Ainge said.
Too much to give up. There’s a 50-50 shot that Sac pick is better than 5 by itself. Rozier is a legit starting caliber PG and you’re throwing in another late first. Memphis is gonna be top 10 at worst and has a good shot at top 3.
I mean I suppose they could try Memphis on Rozier, Sacramento '19, and their own first in exchange for #4. Given the age there's no guarantee that Conley ever really gets back to pre-injury production levels, and having their own #1 back alleviates a lot of the sort of crap that franchises do with those pick options hanging over their heads.
I guess that they could always try and get the Nets or Hawks involved as a dumping ground for Parsons with Boston pitching in some of their future firsts and a prospect like Yabusele to make it go down easier. That might reduce the acquisition cost.
Let me try to be clearer. If Danny has a guy he really wants, would it be possible to trade both the Sac and Memphis picks, given the #1 protection of the Sac pick? My sense has been that they'd need to hold back the Memphis pick in case the Sac pick ends up being #1. But maybe not.
Oh, if that's your question they could see if someone would bite on their pretty sure thing pick this year in exchange for the Sacramento pick if it conveys in 2019 or the Memphis pick if it doesn't. But I doubt anyone in the top six bites on that.
There is zero chance that Brown is going in a deal to get Bamba. That's just nonsense.
But Sac 19 is not nore valuable than #5 this year IMO. Sure it could be as high as #2, but it could also be #27. And frankly, even with the luxury gymnastics, I think that you can make a case that #5 in this draft is better than #2 next year. Plus we get the asset a year early. Plus we eliminate the downside risk.
I'd trade Rozier, Sac19, and Bos18 for #5 without a second thought.
But Sac 19 is not nore valuable than #5 this year IMO. Sure it could be as high as #2, but it could also be #27. And frankly, even with the luxury gymnastics, I think that you can make a case that #5 in this draft is better than #2 next year. Plus we get the asset a year early. Plus we eliminate the downside risk.
I'd trade Rozier, Sac19, and Bos18 for #5 without a second thought.
Yes. They can. The Memphis pick and the Sacramento pick are not related. They can trade both or neither.
I don't understand your question. Why would they need to "hold back" the MEM pick? Are you asking if there is some sort of Stepien Rule implication?
This year, when we didn't get the Laker pick, we instead get next year's Sac pick. That added a lot more value to what we were getting. Wouldn't we have to add something to the package in case Sac ends up being #1 that's better than the Phiily pick? Otherwise, it seems that there is too much risk, much as if we hadn't gotten Sac as a fallback for LAL
Last edited:
I think you are correct.
- Trading Rozier and the SAC pick (would turn into PHI if SAC gets #1) probably would not be enough.
- DA could do something to the effect of Rozier + SAC pick but if SAC pick doesn't convey, the other team gets the MEM pick and BOS keeps the PHI pick.
- However, the other team would probably want Rozier + both the SAC/PHI pick plus the MEM pick, which is an awful lot unless there is a specific guy that DA really really wants.
Because the team acquiring it as the focal point of a deal would be kinda pissed if it came in at #1 and did not convey. Holding back the MEM pick then gives them something of value to replace that with.
I feel Ainge holds back due to its potential value down the road holding greater value than it would be included in a deal today. A rebuilding GM isn't likely to want an asset 3-4 years down the road as if he doesn't move the needle prior to that he may never make the pick. My point is that the Memphis pick is much more valuable to Ainge than it is to any trading partner to move up this summer.
It dates back to the Evans draft and also by multiple reports this past desdline, not only one Simmons quote. Aside from that, Tyreke fits all the characteristics that Ainge looks for in his guards.......ability to play 1/2, defend and switch multiple positions, tough and aggressive, etc.
Classic DA misdirection to target someone else. I don't doubt they led this reporter to believe they wanted Bamba though. I'm interested to see who KOC ends up pushing with unusual conviction, he usually seems to be in tune with the front office's line of thinking.
Yes, but the Memphis pick doesn’t have to be the reconciliation. They could trade the Sac and Mem picks and have some other backup agreed to if the Sac pick doesn’t convey. The question does sort of imply that the two picks are connected in some way (but I knew what he really meant).
This is what I'm trying to get at. What would this be, if not the Memphis pick? If someone trades away the 3 or 4 pick in the '18 draft, and loses out on a probable top 5 in '19, what else would be acceptable (and practical) protection for them from the Celts?
Isn't the Celtics backup on that pick the Sixers' first round pick? In fact, the pick actually conveys as the higher of the two, right?
Yes it is. You think that would be acceptable to a team trading out of the top 5 this year, expecting a top 5 from Sac next year?
Last edited:
You’re right — the MEM pick needs to be used somehow as insurance for the SAC pick not conveying. No GM will risk trading a top-5 pick this year for a pick in the 20s next year; those are the sorts of moves that get GMs fired. And I don’t see another asset that would be remotely acceptable to a would-be trade partner.
Agree that if there’s anything to these rumors, Jackson is the likely target. I know some mocks show Bagley slipping to #4, but I’ll be shocked if that actually happens (and if it does, MEM will suddenly lose interest in trading the pick). And I agree with others who have said that Bamba isn’t a fit for the C’s scheme.
There can be no protections put on the SAC pick if it is traded. So I am not sure you could offer the MEM pick if the SAC pick actually becomes the PHI pick.
Yea, there is a decent chance that the MEM pick indeed conveys next year. Could easily see them finishing with the 10th worst record or so. Also an outside chance that the Clippers smeak into the playoffs next year.
BOS could end up with something like picks #3 (SAC), #10 (MEM), # 15 (LAC), and # 28 (BOS)
BOS could end up with something like picks #3 (SAC), #10 (MEM), # 15 (LAC), and # 28 (BOS)
But the Celtics wouldn't be adding protections to the Sac pic. They'd be providing an alternative for the case that they don't own the Sac pic. "You get the best pick [that we actually own] of X, Y and Z" seems to be fine. Whether anyone's actually willing to accept the risk of the backup pick being either late lottery or several years in the future is a different question.
I suspect there is no one who is currently bad enough to be in the top five who thinks that Terry Rozier and future picks will help. You get a bunch of assets conveying at different times, none of which are likely on their own to move the needle, and whose scattering over different years might prevent fully bottoming out either.
I sure hope not, the 2019 draft is one of the worst in a while as it looks now. I know it could change but thats not all that normal.
The Grizzlies were the league’s 4th-worst team by point differential this season (behind PHO, SAC and CHI). Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans were the only two guys they had who were significantly better than replacement level — Evans will be playing elsewhere next season, and Gasol will be 34 years old. Mike Conley should be back, but I think 2016-17 was a career year for him; he’s more likely to be the slightly above-average player he has been for most of his career than the borderline All-Star he was a year ago.
Could the pick convey? Sure. But if I had to wager even money one way or the other, I’d bet it doesn’t.
I think the deal that might be there is Rozier + SAC + MEM to the Grizzlies for their #4 pick.
Memphis is screwed for a while; reacquiring their pick clears the way for the tanking process that needs to happen. If they don’t think a franchise player is available at #4, turning one lottery pick into two makes sense. Rozier could either be flipped to another team, or kept as a long-term asset in hopes that Conley plays well enough this season to make the last two years of that ridiculous contract tradeable (or at least dump-able).
I do that deal if Jackson or Doncic are available. I think many would balk at the price of both Sac/Mem being traded but I’d be in favor of locking in value and getting another core player in tow for next season.
If you’re able to get a guy like Jackson, you have your 3 vets in Horford/Hayward/Kyrie balanced out with your future core of Jackson/Tatum/Brown. And if Davis’ situation ever changes, you have Jackson/Brown ready to highlight a package that enables you to leave your Horford/Kyrie/Tatum/Hayward group intact.
If the Celtics trade up and get another core guy, I don’t think they’d really care much if both the Sac/Mem picks turn into high lotto selection. It’d basically be what the Fultz/Tatum trade was supposed to be from Philly’s standpoint.
I feel the Grizzlies have a chance to be really really bad. They'll have two veterans in a losing situation playing with a bunch of younger guys in their FA year looking to put up numbers for next summer. This is the ultimate NBA recipe for disaster.
They need to be really really bad for four straight years though.
I'd gladly package Rozier, Sac, and Memphis for a top 4 pick in this draft. The pick this year is easily the most valuable asset in that deal.
Everyone is assuming Rozier would be a part of any trade-up, but if you were a rebuilding team wouldn't you just prefer more picks instead of a PG that becomes a free agent in one year anyway? I guess it depends on the team but I find it more likely that a trade into the top 5 of this year's draft would be something like Sac pick, Memphis pick, Celtics pick this year, and maybe a future Celtics pick or something. And if I were the Celtics I would gladly do that since they are going to reach a point where additional picks become less and less meaningful as the roster gets more and more crowded.
That's the move everyone's floating, but the first lottery pick they'd get back is in what would be by consensus a weaker draft than this one, and the second is either going to be low-lottery, or three years in the future. Rozier does nothing for them insofar as he makes the team better but not a lot better, and will need re-signing after this year. So it's what they can flip him for. The absolute best-case scenario there is what, Miami's first this year? I guess if you can get four first-rounders for one, then maaaaybe.
Where do they improve when strapped with the Conley, Parsons, and Gasol contracts with an owner who refused to trade the latter? They aren't close to rock bottom yet, that could come in another couple years as Gasol ages but there isn't much hope of them hitting 30 wins during this 4-year window imo.
I wonder if the flexibility for future trades becomes an asset to MEM when re-acquiring their pick. I.e., right now, they can't trade any of their next few picks because they might not own it. If the re-acquire, not only do they get the asset, but they gain the opportunity to make trades involving picks in multiple years (not only the pick they get back), which may have greater-than-zero value to them (I doubt this moves the needle a whole lot, but it presumably makes the pick slightly more valuable to them than to anyone else).
Last edited:
Exactly: the 4 years of badness are very correlated. In addition, they're in the west, where it's much, much harder to randomly make the playoffs with a shit team by adding a couple vets and trying hard.
My general impression reading these trade ideas is that a lot of fans penciled in a high Celtics 2018 pick, got super excited about the draft, and are now in the bargaining stage of grief.
Those are the absolute worst circumstances in which to make a trade.
2016 was a 2 player draft in which the Celtics drafted third, and were definitely totally screwed by not getting Jimmy Butler or Paul George. The Nets picks were going to convey in the 20s. Cleveland totally owned the Celtics in the Kyrie trade.
I'd argue that, given the tax and contract timelines, the Celtics, more than most other teams, should be trying to maximize variance in the future rather than minimizing it in the present.
EDIT: maximize variance wrt high-end draft picks, not overall team performance. And for lower draft picks, they'll probably be looking for solidish contributors.
Thinking big men: I feel like Theis is being overlooked. People upthread were pondering Monroe. As I recall, Monroe was needed after losing Theis for the season (though they don’t share much in common other than size). I also wonder if Theis obviates the need to re-sign Baynes (as their skill sets are more similar).
Assuming a starting 5 of Irving, Brown, Tatum, Heyward, Horford, you would have Theis, Morris, Smart, Rozier as your first four off the bench (also assuming no trades). Theis gives you a big to allow Al to slide to the 4; Morris gives you a sub at the 3 or 4; and Rozier and Smart give you subs for the 1-3.
It seems to me that what they could use off the bench is a wing who could score (Gerald Green like).
At the end of the bench, they probably could use another big (Yabu?) and another point (Larkin like).
I’m not sure they need Baynes back.
Assuming a starting 5 of Irving, Brown, Tatum, Heyward, Horford, you would have Theis, Morris, Smart, Rozier as your first four off the bench (also assuming no trades). Theis gives you a big to allow Al to slide to the 4; Morris gives you a sub at the 3 or 4; and Rozier and Smart give you subs for the 1-3.
It seems to me that what they could use off the bench is a wing who could score (Gerald Green like).
At the end of the bench, they probably could use another big (Yabu?) and another point (Larkin like).
I’m not sure they need Baynes back.
I agree Theis is a key guy. They could have used him against Cleveland. He doesn’t fill the need for size, but he’s a terrific smaller backup big who brings energy, ability to hold his own after switches, stretch the floor, etc.
Honestly, I think the Celtics margin of loss against Cleveland was so small that just adding Theis might have pushed them over the top. Especially in games 6 and 7 after Love went down.
Honestly, I think the Celtics margin of loss against Cleveland was so small that just adding Theis might have pushed them over the top. Especially in games 6 and 7 after Love went down.
Who are the playoff contenders in the East?
Philly - Embiid
Cleveland - Tristan (presuming LeBron remains)
Toronto - Valanciunas
Indiana - Turner
Detroit - Drummond
We've seen some of these guys have dominant performances against our frontline WITH Baynes' physicality........going into the playoffs or even the seasons with only Horford and Theis doesn't appear to be a realistic option as it isn't fair to the players to expose them as such. "Maybe" you could begin the year without a physical big while picking someone up at the deadline but I'm guessing it is much more likely that occurs in the summer to best protect Horford and Theis from being forced into such physical mismatches.
When I say "Baynes replacement" it doesn't necessarily mean someone who is going to start or even play 20 mpg as there are many matchups where he wasn't needed at all. You do need this player in some type of role against certain teams however even if it is a Willy Hernangomez, my salary filler guy in a potential Rozier to Charlotte trade.
I don't want to lose both Monroe and Baynes. I like having at least one really big guy (with some skill) on the roster. I know Horford is 6'11" but he just doesn't seem..."big".
But really, assuming good health next year, if (big IF) they brought back Smart and Rozier, they're going to be a much improved team just from the return of Kyrie and Hayward, plus the improvement of Brown and Tatum.
But really, assuming good health next year, if (big IF) they brought back Smart and Rozier, they're going to be a much improved team just from the return of Kyrie and Hayward, plus the improvement of Brown and Tatum.
I think this is the year Ainge is totally comfortable over-paying in a trade to get the guy he wants in the draft. It is great to have all of these draft picks going forward, but they just won’t have the roster space (or need) for them were they to keep all of their picks. With the Kyrie/Hayward/Horford core of veterans coupled with Brown/Tatum, you do what you got to do to get an elite-ish talent around that and make your run at championships.
Rozier+Sac 19+Memphis pick for a top 5 pick this year makes a TON of sense to me, and who cares if it ends up being a “loss” from a trade perspective going forward if you get the guy you want and he is legit.
Rozier+Sac 19+Memphis pick for a top 5 pick this year makes a TON of sense to me, and who cares if it ends up being a “loss” from a trade perspective going forward if you get the guy you want and he is legit.
Things I would like to see
1) Rozier + BOS 1st to PHO for Chriss + future 1st
2) Smart taking the QO or signs a 3 year 30 million deal
3) Baynes resigned for 120% raise on a 2 year deal with year 2 partially guaranteed
4) Sign a knock down shooter with the mini mid level
1) Rozier + BOS 1st to PHO for Chriss + future 1st
2) Smart taking the QO or signs a 3 year 30 million deal
3) Baynes resigned for 120% raise on a 2 year deal with year 2 partially guaranteed
4) Sign a knock down shooter with the mini mid level
