Celtics in 18-19

HomeRunBaker

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All good points. Using the MLE for a designated gunner is the final piece IMO.
This shooter would see limited minutes similar to what Larkin had this year......you don't need to spend on this type of player as Ainge has found Eddie House, Nate Robinson, and Jason Terry in the past to fill this role on the cheap which is what I again expect him to do. I feel the MLE is a must to use for a Baynes replacement in our frontline.
 

mauf

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Obtuse it is! I guess we’re done here.

Edit: They were 6 minutes from the Finals, to their great credit. That means as much to Smart’s value moving forward as if they had lost to Washington in 6 in the first round. They have to fill 40-45 minutes in the playoffs outside of Kyrie/Brown/Hayward/Tatum/Horford. Paying a one dimensional role player $10M+ to fill 20 of them just makes it harder to keep those guys long term.
If you want to continue to participate in this discussion, you need to find a way to handle your disagreements with others more respectfully than you did in the gilded part above.
 

bosockboy

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This shooter would see limited minutes similar to what Larkin had this year......you don't need to spend on this type of player as Ainge has found Eddie House, Nate Robinson, and Jason Terry in the past to fill this role on the cheap which is what I again expect him to do. I feel the MLE is a must to use for a Baynes replacement in our frontline.
Terry got the full MLE I think but good point.
 

OurF'ingCity

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This shooter would see limited minutes similar to what Larkin had this year......you don't need to spend on this type of player as Ainge has found Eddie House, Nate Robinson, and Jason Terry in the past to fill this role on the cheap which is what I again expect him to do. I feel the MLE is a must to use for a Baynes replacement in our frontline.
Yeah, if everyone is healthy I don't think scoring is going to be an issue on next year's team; frankly, the more likely issue is that there won't be enough shots to go around. But if they don't re-sign Baynes they will definitely need another big man and the going market rate for Baynes-type players tends to be around that level, in the $4-8 million range.
 

Manzivino

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If you want to continue to participate in this discussion, you need to find a way to handle your disagreements with others more respectfully than you did in the gilded part above.
Fair enough, I will just make more liberal use of the ignore function moving forward.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Terry got the full MLE I think but good point.
Let me replace Terry with Gerald Green last year. That type of min-guy who can do one thing in a 10th man role. It probably isn't even necessary if Rozier and Morris return and a position that can be evaluated at the deadline to pick up deep bench help.
 

Devizier

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This shooter would see limited minutes similar to what Larkin had this year......you don't need to spend on this type of player as Ainge has found Eddie House, Nate Robinson, and Jason Terry in the past to fill this role on the cheap which is what I again expect him to do. I feel the MLE is a must to use for a Baynes replacement in our frontline.
Who do you see? Alex Len? Nogueira?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, if everyone is healthy I don't think scoring is going to be an issue on next year's team; frankly, the more likely issue is that there won't be enough shots to go around. But if they don't re-sign Baynes they will definitely need another big man and the going market rate for Baynes-type players tends to be around that level, in the $4-8 million range.
Who do you see? Alex Len? Nogueira?
There are always FA who find a market that dried up on them available late in the FA period but keep in mind our trade assets as well.......Morris is one guy who will see a role reduction and can be moved for a big to fill a much greater role on the team. I haven't spent any time thinking of matches but taking on 2-years of a guy from a rebuilding team who may want to lose that deal a year sooner to be FA players is a possibility as well.
 

mauf

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This shooter would see limited minutes similar to what Larkin had this year......you don't need to spend on this type of player as Ainge has found Eddie House, Nate Robinson, and Jason Terry in the past to fill this role on the cheap which is what I again expect him to do. I feel the MLE is a must to use for a Baynes replacement in our frontline.
I doubt Danny can fit Smart and an MLE signing in the budget he’ll get from ownership.

If somebody hands Smart 4/60, then I think you’re right about the likely direction, but if Smart only commands 4/45, I think Danny brings back Smart and tries to flip Rozier for a Baynes replacement.

Totally agree that Danny isn’t bringing in a shooter, except perhaps on a league-minimum deal. There simply aren’t enough minutes for such a player when everyone is healthy to justify the investment.
 

mauf

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There are always FA who find a market that dried up on them available late in the FA period but keep in mind our trade assets as well.......Morris is one guy who will see a role reduction and can be moved for a big to fill a much greater role on the team. I haven't spent any time thinking of matches but taking on 2-years of a guy from a rebuilding team who may want to lose that deal a year sooner to be FA players is a possibility as well.
Have you seen the way Morris interacts with Jaylen and (especially) Tatum? I’ll be surprised if he isn’t back.

Incidentally, I think his 2019 free agency will be better served by staying in Boston next season. Teams with cap room won’t be spending it on MM; his market is the MLE teams, and they’ll be more intrigued by a role player on a contender than a guy who put up 16 and 9 on a lottery team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I doubt Danny can fit Smart and an MLE signing in the budget he’ll get from ownership.

If somebody hands Smart 4/60, then I think you’re right about the likely direction, but if Smart only commands 4/45, I think Danny brings back Smart and tries to flip Rozier for a Baynes replacement.

Totally agree that Danny isn’t bringing in a shooter, except perhaps on a league-minimum deal. There simply aren’t enough minutes for such a player when everyone is healthy to justify the investment.
Yes, this is the only scenario I see Smart returning but I still have trouble paying a player $11m on a 4-year deal as his role is reduced. It seems like terrible value to me and I'm not in favor of it.

Have you seen the way Morris interacts with Jaylen and (especially) Tatum? I’ll be surprised if he isn’t back.
Didn't we hear this for two years about Isaiah and his importance to the community, his heart, commitment to Boston, etc? In the big picture it really means little if there is a deal that makes sense for the Celtics on the floor. I mentioned last night that entering his FA year he isn't going to want to be buried on the bench either and I'm sure his agent is well aware of their options. This is a business first and foremost.....and there is a logjam of quality players who aren't going to have minutes for them next year so someone is going to go. It's similar to Crowder last year once Hayward was signed.
 
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bosockboy

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Have you seen the way Morris interacts with Jaylen and (especially) Tatum? I’ll be surprised if he isn’t back.

Incidentally, I think his 2019 free agency will be better served by staying in Boston next season. Teams with cap room won’t be spending it on MM; his market is the MLE teams, and they’ll be more intrigued by a role player on a contender than a guy who put up 16 and 9 on a lottery team.
And the series result notwithstanding, did a solid job on LeBron. I think he’s back also.
The Smart/Rozier/MLE, etc situation is also likely affected by what they do with the draft. My gut says Ainge tries to use the future draft capital this year to get a difference maker.
 

Big John

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Lexrageorge has laid out the numbers above. I would add that the projected non-taxpayer MLE is $8.8M and the biannual is 3.3M. The player selected with #27 will cost around $1.6M (120 percent of $1.367M). Today the Celtics have $107M committed, which includes Smart's $6M QO.

I'm guessing Smart will be gone one way or another, via unmatched offer sheet or sign-and trade, and that Baynes takes the $5M. If Baynes doesn't, Kyle O'Quinn (player option) might be a cheap replacement. They will have Yabusele for one more year unless they can trade him. Or maybe he comes around as a player.

I'd like to see them add a guy like Dewayne Dedmon with or Derrick Favors with the MLE, although either one may be too expensive. I'd want to add a shooter like Joe Harris with the BE.

As for trades, I'd like Ainge convert the Sacramento and Memphis picks into a top pick in this draft, because this year's draft is so strong. It may not be possible. Will Ainge look to trade Rozier now, when his value is high? A young big man has to be a priority for this roster going forward.

Another interesting question is what happens in 2019-20, when the cap is projected to be $108M with the tax line at $130. Will Ainge pay Kyrie 30% of the cap or look to trade him? Will Horford exercise his player option? If Rozier is still around, what will they do about him?
 

Eddie Jurak

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Draymond isn't even as bad a shooter as Smart, but he shoots about 25% less on a per minute basis, even less from 3. He knows what he's good at.
Draymond, for his career, is at 9.9 attempts per 36 in the regular season, 10.2 in the playoffs. Smart is at 10.9 for the regular season, 10.4 in the playoffs. I doubt the difference between the two players is best expressed by 1 extra shot per 36 by Marcus.

Smart was at 11.5 per 36 for these playoffs; I think he'd take fewer shots if he was on the court with KD, Curry, and Klay. Or even just with Kyrie and Gordon.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Didn't we hear this for two years about Isaiah and his importance to the community, his heart, commitment to Boston, etc? In the big picture it really means little if there is a deal that makes sense for the Celtics on the floor. I mentioned last night that entering his FA year he isn't going to want to be buried on the bench either and I'm sure his agent is well aware of their options. This is a business first and foremost.....and there is a logjam of quality players who aren't going to have minutes for them next year so someone is going to go. It's similar to Crowder last year once Hayward was signed.
And barring a blockbuster trade, there just aren't that many tradeable contracts the Celtics have. It's basically Morris and Rozier. So if they are looking to trade for, say, a big man to take the place of Baynes, Morris will definitely at least be in the discussion. It's very possible he will still be here next year, but it's very possible he will be gone.

I'd like to see them add a guy like Dewayne Dedmon with or Derrick Favors with the MLE, although either one may be too expensive. I'd want to add a shooter like Joe Harris with the BE.
As noted upthread I think Dedmon will probably get at least one offer over the MLE, so the question will be whether he is willing to take a discount to play on a championship contender. Favors, IMO, will get a contract way over the MLE.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm hearing things about the Celtics offseason. It won't be stagnant ... Stay tuned.

He didn’t get into details but said Rozier would be prominent in trade talks which we know.
Yup. And we also know that Ainge always tinkers. I’m sure he will be active but would be pretty surprised if we see a big deal, which I would define as moving one of the projected starters next year.
 

Eddie Jurak

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One thing I don't want to see is a return to the small guard lineups of years past. It's part of why I'd rather keep Smart than Rozier. Having Tatum, Brown, Morris logging a lot of wing minutes this year was great, and Hayward at 6'8" fits right into that... as does Smart who is shorter but can hold his own against bigger guys in the post.
 

lexrageorge

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Am I the only one very concerned about Hayward's level of play post injury? If he can't cut or move laterally as well as he used to he is reduced to a spot up shooter who can't defend well. And yeah, those players are valuable, but not nearly what we'll need from him.

I know the organization keeps saying his career won't be affected, but the team's never been super honest about injuries int he past.
The bolded is one of the myths sometimes raised by interns, amateur bloggers and IT4 zealots, but is not really true.

Hayward was a really, really good player before he got hurt. We've had our board physicians chime in saying he should recover completely. It could be a few months into next season before he's back to his pre-injury self, but even before then, he'll still be far more than a "spot up shooter who can't defend well". And a spot up shooter would have come in very handy last night.
 

moondog80

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Is the shot you're going to have nightmares about the quick pull-up 3 he took to preserve the 2 for 1? Because, that was the right decision.
No, it wasn't. The 2-for-1 is a nice thing when the shots are actually good shots. They ended up getting the ball back with 7 seconds left and had to settle for a Terry Rozier heave from 40 feet. Zero good shots in that sequence.
 

moondog80

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This team didn't lose because Smart attempted 10 shots last night.
That's not the singular reason, no. It's probably not the biggest reason. But telling Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier to stop shooting threes won't help them win in the future. Telling Marcus Smart that will.
 

soxin6

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The Celtics are going to have to make choices and I just don't see how they can give 11 million (or more) per year to Smart when they are looking at having to give a max contact to Kyrie. Smart brings a lot of toughness to the second unit, but I can't see the Celtics being able to keep him.

I think Ainge will look to trade Rozier. Despite his poor performance last night, he raised his value during the playoffs and the Celtics aren't likely to be able to pay him next off season.
 

Devizier

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I wonder if the Celtics would swing a deal for Beverley. I don't know what his prognosis is for next season, but I can't imagine that the Clippers are terribly attached to him.
 

bosockboy

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Curious if Ojeleye could step into the second unit defensive stopper role that Smart has. That will probably determine how far Ainge will go to keep Smart.
 

mcpickl

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I doubt Danny can fit Smart and an MLE signing in the budget he’ll get from ownership.

If somebody hands Smart 4/60, then I think you’re right about the likely direction, but if Smart only commands 4/45, I think Danny brings back Smart and tries to flip Rozier for a Baynes replacement.

Totally agree that Danny isn’t bringing in a shooter, except perhaps on a league-minimum deal. There simply aren’t enough minutes for such a player when everyone is healthy to justify the investment.
Agree with this 100%. I can't imagine they're going to allow Ainge to spend into the tax next year, since they'll likely being paying into the tax in the years after that. They'll want to push the repeater penalties back a year.

If they keep everyone they currently have under contract and their draft pick, they'll have around 14M to spend before hitting the tax line. Even if Smart plays for the qualifying offer, they'd probably need to off load somebody to use the full MLE.

I don't think there will be a big outside team improvement from the MLE regardless. They're either going to have to re-sign Baynes, likely taking them out of the MLE market, or use at least part if not all of the MLE for a Baynes replacement.
 

DJnVa

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More quotes from Celtics today:

Ainge
“I get a kick out of the fact that everywhere I go, people don’t think we need Kyrie or need Gordon Hayward. I have a much longer memory and remember how great those guys were and what an effort it took us to get them. I also remember how great they are and how young they are still. So we need Gordon and Kyrie, absolutely need them. If this playoff run and all the series of the playoffs didn’t show that, then I don’t know what does. We were able to win some games and we were able to fight through some tough battles, but we’re much, much better with Kyrie and Gordon.”
“Gordon is progressing well. He’s on the court now, finally doing a little bit of competition, like just one-on-one. And he’ll progress along that line slowly. We think that he’ll be playing basketball in the next couple months.”
Tatum
“Just really work on my body. Just try to stay healthy and be stronger. Just try to get bigger.”
 

PedroKsBambino

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Didn't we hear this for two years about Isaiah and his importance to the community, his heart, commitment to Boston, etc? In the big picture it really means little if there is a deal that makes sense for the Celtics on the floor. I mentioned last night that entering his FA year he isn't going to want to be buried on the bench either and I'm sure his agent is well aware of their options. This is a business first and foremost.....and there is a logjam of quality players who aren't going to have minutes for them next year so someone is going to go. It's similar to Crowder last year once Hayward was signed.
Agreed, if there's one thing that is completely clear about Ainge it is that he is willing to change pieces without concerns like how guys like each other. I am not sure what this offseason will bring, but it will not be about guys liking each other or not.

I think the most likely move is Rozier and an asset (likely the Memphis pick) for a 1 this year, with the most likely target being a big they think can be a starter down the road (Carter? Williams if they are huge on him?). But even a move like that depends at least in part on getting certainty on Smart's situation for next year, as Rozier's role and value will be a lot higher if Smart leaves. The other possibility is if they really like Sexton or another young PG they might target him with goal of having him start as a cost-controlled 3rd guard and be an alternative to Kyrie down the road.

There's little doubt in my mind he will also explore AD, KAT, etc and also almost no chance he gets anywhere there.
 

mauf

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Didn't we hear this for two years about Isaiah and his importance to the community, his heart, commitment to Boston, etc? In the big picture it really means little if there is a deal that makes sense for the Celtics on the floor. I mentioned last night that entering his FA year he isn't going to want to be buried on the bench either and I'm sure his agent is well aware of their options. This is a business first and foremost.....and there is a logjam of quality players who aren't going to have minutes for them next year so someone is going to go. It's similar to Crowder last year once Hayward was signed.
There are few things more important for this franchise’s long-run success than Jaylen’s and (especially) Tatum’s development. Morris seems to be good for that — I mean, isn’t having a little bit of MM’s bad-ass attitude rub off on those two pretty much exactly what the doctor ordered? That’s why I expect him to be in Boston next season. (And as I argued above, I think that’s probably best for Morris too, as I don’t think putting up stats on a crummy team is going to help him get paid.)
 
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Imbricus

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I think there's a silver lining to last night's loss, in terms of planning for next year, in that it exposed some glaring Celtics weaknesses. If the Celts had pulled out a win and done a respectable job against Golden State, then there might be more momentum behind that, "They might not need Kyrie or Hayward and just need to let these guys get more experience" thinking (which thankfully Ainge doesn't appear to buy into, and what's more, he knows how hard it is to land premium talent). The fact is, Kyrie puts up big scoring numbers, night after night. If he went 0-10 from 3-point range, they'd check him into a hospital. But Rozier can be streaky. They need consistency.
 

nighthob

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Exactly. We had roughly 48-50 PPG out. That takes care of itself. I suspect that with Davis now a pipe dream, Ainge tries to package Rozier and picks to get as high as possible and maybe draft Bagley or Porter.
They aren’t getting even a mid lottery pick for Rozier, but I’d argue that they should take a hard look at Orlando. There’s a pretty good chance that the Magic are going to end up with C at 6, and they’re unlikely to let Gordon go, so a deal for Jonathan Isaac might be feasible. And he’s got the height/length/frame/athleticism to fit Boston’s all switch defense while being a good enough shooter to space the floor on offense.

Alternatively the Suns and Clippers have a need for a lead guard. HRB has listed Charlotte as another possibility. All three teams have later lottery picks that could be used on a long term Smart/Rozier replacement. The Suns also have a future Miami #1 in their bank.
 

Reverend

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There are few things more important for this franchise’s long-run success than Jaylen’s and (especially) Tatum’s development. Morris seems to be good for that — I mean, isn’t having a little bit of MM’s bad-ass attitude rub off on those two pretty much exactly what the doctor ordered? That’s why I expect him to be in Boston next season. (And as I argued above, I think that’s probably best for Morris too, as I don’t think putting up stats on a crummy team is going to help him get paid.)
Who was it who pointed out, with respect to Morris's mentoring role (beyond the fact that something is working with Tatum, obviously): If Morris can get Tatum to play with his confidence...
 

lovegtm

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Who was it who pointed out, with respect to Morris's mentoring role (beyond the fact that something is working with Tatum, obviously): If Morris can get Tatum to play with his confidence...
I don't think it's a coincidence that Morris is in the background yelling at LeBron when Tatum bumped him after the dunk. Morris seems to be a surprisingly good influence with the young guys in terms of treating them with respect, pushing them, and showing them the kind of attitude to play with.

EDIT: I think you can infer Brad's love for what the Marcuses bring in leadership and intensity from the leeway he gives them to jack up horrible shots with no repercussions.
 

jsinger121

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This celtics team reminds me the the 1989-90 Bulls. Chicago went 55-27 that year and beat Milwaukee and the Sixers before falling in 7 games to the Pistons and then coming back the following year to win it all. The Bulls also had lost to the Pistons in the playoffs 3 straight years as well. The celtics went 55-27 this season before beating Milwaukee and the Sixers before losing to the Cavs in games a team that has beaten the celtics in 3 out of the last 4 playoffs.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Sell high on Rozier, keep Smart, average injury luck = ring 18

This is the last year Lebron gets out of the east and he knows it, lucked out a bit to do it this year too
 

HomeRunBaker

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Agree with this 100%. I can't imagine they're going to allow Ainge to spend into the tax next year, since they'll likely being paying into the tax in the years after that. They'll want to push the repeater penalties back a year.
This is one of the key factors as to why I've never felt Smart was going to be a Celtic past this season.
 

nighthob

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Allen signed a two year deal, so he doesn’t get RFA status until next summer.
 

teddykgb

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I disagree in regards to Marcus Morris. I don't think this team can have both Marcuses on the team, they're two big presences who have too much confidence to play a background role. All season our offense suffered from big droughts and the two of them are a major reason. Neither is a good enough shooter for the number and manner of shots they take and neither has the shooting conscience necessary to shut it down when their shot just isn't falling on any given night.

Given that, I'd prefer to pay Smart, whose uncanny knack for making huge plays and general playmaking ability gives him more value in my eyes than Morris. I get what people are saying about his attitude and pushing young people but I can't help but feel that we can find someone who brings a lot of that to the table without the awful shot selection and selfish play. In both games 6 and 7 of this series we really suffered when these two came in and started gunning 3s early in the shot clock. Brown and Rozier missed a ton of shots in game 7 but almost all of them were shots they more or less had to take due to openness/swing of the ball. Only the two marcuses are particularly likely to pull up for a 3 with 21 seconds left on the shot clock. If the coach isn't willing to talk to players about shot selection then the GM has to take some of these options off his hands.
 

ishmael

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The Celtics are going to have to make choices and I just don't see how they can give 11 million (or more) per year to Smart when they are looking at having to give a max contact to Kyrie. Smart brings a lot of toughness to the second unit, but I can't see the Celtics being able to keep him.

I think Ainge will look to trade Rozier. Despite his poor performance last night, he raised his value during the playoffs and the Celtics aren't likely to be able to pay him next off season.
I mentioned this in the Marcus Smart thread, but if DA can get him on a MLE+ deal, they can structure it in a team friendly way so that Marcus gets more money up front. Rozier gets moved, Nader gets cut, and they use the MLE for a center (or bring back Baynes) to stay right under the luxury tax line.

And $8 or $10M is pretty decent for 1) Kyrie insurance and 2) a guy who will play 16-18 minutes of maniacal backup point D every night plus another 5-10 min on the court with Kyrie. And despite his propensity to shoot, I do think Smart reins it in when he has 2 extra stud shooters on the court.

Just looking at the minutes situation, I also don't see how Marcus Morris gets moved unless there is a major upgrade on the table:

Kyrie/Jaylen/GH/Tatum/Al are all good for 30-32 mpg.
Smart (or Rozier) and Theis can give you 16-20 mpg as backups, but they have no good options for a guy who can step in and give minutes across the SF/PF/C spot (as well as switch on defense and hit threes). Morris is that guy and makes filling in the rest of the roster that much easier...
 

Imbricus

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Haven't seen this posted in the thread yet. Smart says he wants to be in Boston, and during exit interview, team gave him the impression they would keep him, per ESPN.
Only hours after Boston's Game 7 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference finals, Smart went through exit interviews and said team brass talked as if he would be back next season. ... "Danny emphasizes all the time how much he loves me as a player and emphasized how much they want me here," Smart said. "I want to be here, so that's the plan right now."
 

DJnVa

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I'm not sure I'd say that the impression was they'd keep him. I'd say the impression was they do like and value what he brings.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'm not sure I'd say that the impression was they'd keep him. I'd say the impression was they do like and value what he brings.
Well, any return is obviously contingent on the finances. But they could have said "Thanks for the memories, we like and value you as a player, but we're planning to go in a different direction". That clearly didn't happen. But after that all bets are off. Marcus will test the market as is his right.