Celtics Future Draft Picks

[pdaj]

Is anyone capable of breaking down the Celtics' future draft pick picture? I know they've added several the past few seasons with the trading of Garnett/Pierce, Rondo, and others, but so many draft selections appear to include exceptions and/or contingencies. What's the likelihood that Boston could have two Top 10 picks in any of the next three drafts?

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Is anyone capable of breaking down the Celtics' future draft pick picture? I know they've added several the past few seasons with the trading of Garnett/Pierce, Rondo, and others, but so many draft selections appear to include exceptions and/or contingencies. What's the likelihood that Boston could have two Top 10 picks in any of the next three drafts?

 
I was literally just reading this before I clicked over here.  (format in the link is much easier to digest)
 
2015 first round draft pick from Dallas
Dallas' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-3 and 15-30 in 2015, 1-7 in 2016, 1-7 in 2017, 1-7 in 2018, 1-7 in 2019 and 1-7 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021 [Boston-Dallas, 12/18/2014]
2015 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 2015 1st round pick to Boston [Boston-L.A. Clippers, 6/25/2013]
2015 first round draft pick from Minnesota
Minnesota's 1st round pick to Boston (via Phoenix) protected for selections 1-12 in 2015 and 1-12 in 2016; if Minnesota has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Boston by 2016, then Minnesota will instead convey its 2016 2nd round pick and 2017 2nd round pick to Boston [Minnesota-New Orleans-Phoenix, 7/27/2012; Boston-Phoenix, 1/9/2015]
2015 first round draft pick from Philadelphia
Philadelphia's 2015 1st round pick to Boston (via Miami) protected for selections 1-14; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Philadelphia will instead convey its 2015 2nd round pick and 2016 2nd round pick to Boston [Miami-Philadelphia, 6/28/2012; Boston-Golden State-Miami, 1/15/2014]
2015 second round draft pick from Washington
Washington's 2015 2nd round pick to Boston protected for selections 31-49 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Washington's obligation to Boston will be extinguished) [Boston-Washington, 7/19/2014]
2016 first round draft pick from Brooklyn
Brooklyn's 2016 1st round pick to Boston [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]
2016 first round draft pick from Cleveland
Cleveland's 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-10 in 2016, 1-10 in 2017 and 1-10 in 2018 and unprotected in 2019 [Boston-Brooklyn-Cleveland, 7/10/2014]
2016 second round draft pick from Cleveland
Cleveland's 2016 2nd round pick to Boston [Boston-Cleveland, 9/25/2014]
2016 second round draft pick from Dallas
Dallas will convey the more favorable of its 2016 2nd round pick and Memphis' 2016 2nd round pick to Boston (via Denver to Dallas then removal of protection from Memphis) [Denver-Memphis, 8/7/2009; Dallas-Denver, 12/13/2011; Dallas-Memphis, 7/22/2013; Boston-Dallas, 12/18/2014]
2016 second round draft pick from Miami
Miami's 2016 2nd round pick to Boston [Boston-Golden State-Miami, 1/15/2014]
2017 first round draft pick from Brooklyn
Boston has the right to swap its 2017 1st round pick for Brooklyn's 2017 1st round pick; if Boston exercises this swap right, then Boston will convey its 2017 2nd round pick to Brooklyn protected for selections 31-45 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Brooklyn will be extinguished) [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]; this potential pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2017 first round draft pick from Boston" on Brooklyn Credits
2017 first round draft pick from Memphis
If at least two years after Memphis conveyed a 1st round pick to Denver, then Memphis' 1st round pick to Boston protected for selections 1-10 in 2017, 1-12 in 2018, 1-8 in 2019 and 1-6 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021 [Boston-Memphis-New Orleans, 1/12/2015]
2017 second round draft pick from Cleveland
Cleveland's 2017 2nd round pick to Boston [Boston-Cleveland, 9/25/2014]
2017 second round draft pick from L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers' 2017 2nd round pick to Boston [Boston-L.A. Clippers-Phoenix, 1/15/2015]
2018 first round draft pick from Brooklyn
Brooklyn's 2018 1st round pick to Boston [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]
2015 second round draft pick to Cleveland
Boston's 2015 2nd round pick to Cleveland protected for selections 31-55 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Cleveland will be extinguished) [Boston-Brooklyn-Cleveland, 7/10/2014]
2016 second round draft pick to Utah
Utah will receive the more favorable of Boston's 2016 2nd round pick and Toronto's 2016 2nd round pick (via Memphis) and Memphis will receive the less favorable of these two picks [Memphis-Toronto, 7/9/2009; Boston-Memphis-Oklahoma City, 1/7/2014; Memphis-Utah, 6/26/2014]; this pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2016 second round draft pick from Toronto" on Utah Credits
2016 second round draft pick to Memphis
Memphis will receive the less favorable of Boston's 2016 2nd round pick and Toronto's 2016 2nd round pick and Utah will receive the more favorable of these two picks (via Memphis) [Memphis-Toronto, 7/9/2009; Boston-Memphis-Oklahoma City, 1/7/2014; Memphis-Utah, 6/26/2014]; this pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2016 second round draft pick from Toronto" on Memphis Credits
2017 second round draft pick to Brooklyn
Boston has the right to swap its 2017 1st round pick for Brooklyn's 2017 1st round pick; if Boston exercises this swap right, then Boston will convey its 2017 2nd round pick to Brooklyn protected for selections 31-45 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Brooklyn will be extinguished) [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]; this potential pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2017 first round draft pick from Brooklyn" on Boston Credits

 

[SeanBerry]

Assuming Philly is not a playoff team in 2016, here's how I have the picks breaking down just the next 2 years:
 
2015 Draft
1st Boston
1st LA Clippers
2nd Philadelphia
2nd Boston
 
2016 Draft
1st Boston
1st Brooklyn
1st Dallas (protected 1-7)
1st Cleveland (protected 1-10)
2nd Philadelphia
2nd Miami
2nd Cleveland
2nd Toronto 
 
Having 4 1st round picks is huge even if 2 are protected. The Brooklyn pick will likely be a lottery pick and they could have a real shot at doing some damage in the lottery that year. I don't follow college basketball at all so I have no idea if it's considered a good upcoming class or not.
 
And that's just the next 2 seasons. They still have 1st round picks from Brooklyn and Memphis and the ability to swap 1st round picks in a seperate season with Brooklyn. 

 

[ifmanis5]

They also have SIX trade exceptions (most in the league) but need to use them before they expire July 1st since they are under way the cap. Expect more moves.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

The real prize is the Brooklyn haul - 2016 first rounder, right to swap first rounders in 2017, and 2018 first rounder. That could net the Celtics 3 lottery picks independent of their own record. Those are the picks that will hopefully either net a couple of star players through the draft, or be traded for them. The rest is basically a giant pile of late first rounders and second rounders. Useful, but not likely to provide the major pieces the Celtics are lacking.

 

[Koufax]

Greatly simplified and projecting that bad teams stay bad, you can look at it like this:
 
First Round:
2015:  Bos + LAC
2016: Brkln + Bos + Cleve 
2017: better of Brkln / Bos
2018:  Bost + Brkln
2019:  Memphis
 
Second Round:
 
2015: Phil + Bost
2016: Minn + Phil + Cle + Better of Memphis/Dallas + Miami + Dal
2017: Minnn + Clev + LAC
2018: Bos
2019:  Bos

 

[SeanBerry]

Koufax: You should add the Dallas 1st rounder to the 2016 list. 
 
Good list.

 

[amfox1]

 
First Round:
2015:  Bos + LAC
2016: Brkln + Bos + Cle + DAL
2017: better of Brkln / Bos
2018:  Bos + Brkln
2019:  BOS + Mem
 
Second Round:
 
2015: Phil + Bos + WAS (top 49 protected, currently #55)
2016: Minn + Phil + Cle + Better of Mem/Dal + Miami + Dal
2017: Minn + Cle + LAC + BOS (unless 46-60 and switch 1st round picks w/BRK)
2018: Bos
2019:  Bos
 
Corrections in red

 

[Koufax]

Thanks.  I "corrected" my original list by moving Dallas from first round to second.  Ooops.
 
2016 is going to be a crazy year unless Danny trades some of those picks. 

 

[ifmanis5]

I'd guess that Danny will bundle some picks and exceptions to land a name player and hopefully use that player as a magnet to attract other name players the same way he built the Big Three. Except this time he doesn't have a Pierce so it's harder and will take longer but he does have more assets to use. Should be interesting.

 

[ivanvamp]

Or they could just keep loading up on drafting all those first round picks and trust that a few of them turn into big-time players.  Gotta have a few pan out, right?

 

[Koufax]

Yes, but all those second rounder in 2016 are then unusable unless you want to have 9 rookies on your team.

 

[Mloaf71]

Next year is a legit shot at two top 10 picks.  If we can sign 1 max or near max caliber player and then leverage next years picks we may be back in business.

 

[amfox1]

Yes, but all those second rounder in 2016 are then unusable unless you want to have 9 rookies on your team.

 
They are trade assets, either at the draft or during the year, or they allow Boston to draft developmental players and store them overseas until needed.  A high second round pick in some ways is better than a late first round pick because there are no guaranteed salaries.

 

[ifmanis5]

Yes, but all those second rounder in 2016 are then unusable unless you want to have 9 rookies on your team.

Exactly, even if you assumed you hit on every pick (which is impossible) you can't have a team with 12 rookies.

 

[Koufax]

I could see the second rounders being used to move up a notch or two in the first round.   

 

[ivanvamp]

Yes, but all those second rounder in 2016 are then unusable unless you want to have 9 rookies on your team.

 
Right.  Or you can use those like Belichick does.  Trade a 2015 second rounder for 2016 and 2017 second rounders.  Add picks that way.  
 
But I think the more likely scenario is they load up these draft picks for a big-time player.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Right.  Or you can use those like Belichick does.  Trade a 2015 second rounder for 2016 and 2017 second rounders.  Add picks that way.  
 
But I think the more likely scenario is they load up these draft picks for a big-time player.

 
I am not well-versed in NBA trade concepts. But are big-time players really going to be traded for s slew of second-round draft picks?

 

[nighthob]

The Brooklyn pick will likely be a lottery pick and they could have a real shot at doing some damage in the lottery that year. I don't follow college basketball at all so I have no idea if it's considered a good upcoming class or not.

The '14-'16 drafts have been on people's radar for a while. Boston hitting rebuilding as these drafts rolled through is a huge break as they all have/had rock solid top 10s.

 

[bakahump]

Almost makes it more important that the "Vet Semi-Superstar" they do bring have leadership intangibles more then incredible talent (sure both would be nice).
 
I mean you want these young guys learning from the next "Garnett" not Melo.

 

[TheDeuce222]

 
I am not well-versed in NBA trade concepts. But are big-time players really going to be traded for s slew of second-round draft picks?

Definitely not.  In order to get a blue chipper, you would certainly need to trade at least one first rounder, more likely two, and probably a first rounder that is unprotected.  Thankfully, they have two unprotected first rounders this year plus Philly with a top pick in Round 2, four likely next year (with an outside chance for five if Minny is out of the bottom 12) plus Philly with a top pick in Round 2, one in 2017 but more valuable because of the pick swap, two unprotected first rounders in 2018, and another two likely in 2019.  They will have the ammunition if something akin to the 2012 James Harden situation comes up again.  

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Have you noticed that the Dallas and Memphis first rounders are unprotected in 2021?

To me, the biggest issue is deciding which year to use those picks, because you have to compare the current expected value of a pick with its future one 3-4 years down the road and that's pretty tough. You could have a scenario where you choose let's say the Memphis 2017 pick and Memphis gets a top 5 in 2021.

Besides rebuilding through the draft an excellent scenario is if we did build a contending team and also had high draft picks shitting out of our pants.

Alas, reality is rarely so pleasant.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Have you noticed that the Dallas and Memphis first rounders are unprotected in 2021?

To me, the biggest issue is deciding which year to use those picks, because you have to compare the current expected value of a pick with its future one 3-4 years down the road and that's pretty tough. You could have a scenario where you choose let's say the Memphis 2017 pick and Memphis gets a top 5 in 2021.
Besides rebuilding through the draft an excellent scenario is if we did build a contending team and also had high draft picks shitting out of our pants.
Alas, reality is rarely so pleasant.

You don't get to choose, the pick automatically transfers if it is not protected.

 

[Nick Kaufman]

So I guess we get to root for 5 years for Memphis and Dallas then. :buddy:

 

[pdaj]

Thanks to a number of you for making the next few years really simple to follow. 2016 looks to be a really important year for the C's. Here's hoping the Nets implode.

 

[ifmanis5]

Here's hoping the Nets implode.

They already have.

 

[zenter]

I'd guess that Danny will bundle some picks and exceptions to land a name player and hopefully use that player as a magnet to attract other name players the same way he built the Big Three. Except this time he doesn't have a Pierce so it's harder and will take longer but he does have more assets to use. Should be interesting.

 
Unless the element of the trade containing the exception(s) can be unbundled from the rest of the trade, bundling isn't a possibility. Exception cannot be combined. IOW...
 
Legal: 5M player+ 12M player in; Bass, 2nd rounder, Rondo exception out (report this to league as two separate trades)
Illegal: 17M player in; Bass, 2nd rounder, and Rondo exception out
 
EDIT: To Lose's q...
 
Legal: 5M player + 12M player in; Rondo exception + Wright exception out
Illegal: 17M player in;  Rondo exception + Wright exception out

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Can you merge trade exemptions?

 

[zenter]

Can you merge trade exemptions?

 
Nope. They must stand alone.
 
EDIT: See Qs 83-86 for more - http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

 

[ifmanis5]

 
Nope. They must stand alone.
 
EDIT: See Qs 83-86 for more - http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

Ah, didn't know that one. Thanks for the link.

 

[zenter]

Ah, didn't know that one. Thanks for the link.

 
No worries. It's actually even more complicated to avoid abuse. You cannot trade exceptions individually for players and then immediately turn around and try to bundle them in a trade. There's a 2 month period where players acquired via exceptions may only be traded out alone. This is why Brandan Wright could only be traded solo (he was acquired using the Bogans exception).

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Nope. They must stand alone.

 
So they're like cheese?

 

[pdaj]

They already have.

 
They've already won too many games for my liking. I want a Top-5 selection in '16.

 

[Koufax]

The Nets aleady have $78MM in salary allocated for next year (assuming that Brooks Lopez exercises his option for $16.7MM).  That puts them over the cap.  KG is unsigned, but I suppose the Nets could sign him again exercising their Bird rights.  (I'm in over my head here, so beat me up if I'm wrong.)  They have no draft pick for 2015. 
 
Joe Johnson will be 34 and on the back nine.  Deron Williams is nearly toast.  Jarrett Jack will be 32 and will earn his $6M.    Mason Plumlee is a very good asset but won't carrry the team.
 
It's hard to say that the Nets will be a top-5 selection, but they should certain garner some ping-pong balls. 

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'd guess Ainge drafts a lot of international players who aren't coming over right away in the 2nd round and maybe you get lucky with a couple.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I believe trade exceptions are valid for one calendar year before they expire, originating on the day they were created or changed hands.

 
They are, but I'm fairly certain that the C's are going to be so far below the salary cap at the start of free agency (once they renounce their free agents) that the TPE's will expire. I'm pretty sure Danny is going to have to use these before then. Which means he'll have the deadline and the draft to find deals using them.
 
The C's only have something like $33M committed next season. The salary cap will be around $66M next year, so our exceptions (roughly $21M) wouldn't be enough to make up for the difference...I think...all of this is very confusing. 
 

I found this explanation: 

A team's exceptions may be lost entirely, or the team may never receive them to begin with. This happens when their team salary is so low that when the exceptions are added to the team salary, the sum is still below the salary cap. If this happens when the exceptions arise, then the team doesn't get their exceptions at all. If the team salary ever drops below this level during the year, then any unused portions of their exceptions are lost (and do not return if the team salary increases).
 

 

[Sprowl]

Celtic fans have a whole lotta delayed gratification on the buffet.
 
How many quarters, dimes and nickels will buy a dollar?

 

[RetractableRoof]

Celtic fans have a whole lotta delayed gratification on the buffet.
 
How many quarters, dimes and nickels will buy a dollar?

i'm not sure but after the Ainge neighborhood garage sale(s) that piggy bank is beginning look stuffed with small coins - unfortunately a lot of nickels there.

Have there been any announcements that Ainge/Celtics have ramped up international scouting? Kobe says it would be a good idea.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
They've already won too many games for my liking. I want a Top-5 selection in '16.

We may have a decent chance at TWO Top-5 selections. This is what the franchise needs and for Ainge to hit on both so Smart can be used properly as a combo guard/3rd guard which is where he's best suited.

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Can someone fill me in why we traded with perennial losers like Philly and Minny that have their first picks proected such that they turn into seconds for us?

 

[Royal Reader]

The Cs traded with teams in the playoff hunt (Miami, Phoenix). The picks had already been protected, so the Celtics basically knew they were trading for second rounders, but that was value for the role players they were sending out.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Can someone fill me in why we traded with perennial losers like Philly and Minny that have their first picks proected such that they turn into seconds for us?

Philly traded the heavily protected pick plus a 2nd to Miami for pick 27 in the 2012 draft, we got it in the Crawford deal.
Minnesota traded a protected first in 2012 to the suns, who moved it to us.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

With the C's owning the Clips 1st round pick this year, it's interesting to note that Blake Griffin will be out 4-6 weeks due to a staph infection in his elbow requiring surgery
 
The Clips are currently 6th in the West, 1/2 game ahead of the Spurs, and 4.5 games up on the Suns for the 8 spot. After that, we have NO and OKC on the outside looking in, who are 6 and 7 losses behind the Clips in the loss category, respectively. 

The lack of depth that has hurt the Clips all year is about to really test Doc's team. It's not likely that they fall out of the playoffs, but I'll be keeping an eye on the Clips over the next few weeks to see how they deal with the loss of Blake. 

LAC next 10 games: @OKC, @DAL, HOU, SA, SAC, MEM, @HOU, @MEM, @CHI, @MIN.  Anything over 2 or 3 wins is going to be impressive. 

 

[nighthob]

I wonder if they could get the Thunder to bite on a Bradley/one of Sullinger/Zeller for Perkins/Jackson/#1 deal? Bradley's the kind of three and D perimeter player that would really help with their spacing and might be enough to help them slip in (hopefully dumping the Clippers in process).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Clippers hammered by OKC today! The dream lives!!!

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I wonder if they could get the Thunder to bite on a Bradley/one of Sullinger/Zeller for Perkins/Jackson/#1 deal? Bradley's the kind of three and D perimeter player that would really help with their spacing and might be enough to help them slip in (hopefully dumping the Clippers in process).

 
That feels like selling low on both Bradley and Sully. The C's would then have to resign Jackson at the end of the year at dollars I'm not really comfortable with. I don't think he's a great back court pairing with Smart, either.  And the pick couldn't come until '17 at the earliest (they owe their top 18 protected '15 1st to DEN). I'd be more interested in the deal if you replaced Sully with Bass. 

 

[the1andonly3003]

so which superstar or future superstar do we expect to trade for in 18-24 months? it's great we have all these assets, but what will Trader Danny convert them into?

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Pointless to play that game this far out. We certainly weren't realistically thinking about KG anytime before the summer he was acquired.

 

[nighthob]

That feels like selling low on both Bradley and Sully. The C's would then have to resign Jackson at the end of the year at dollars I'm not really comfortable with. I don't think he's a great back court pairing with Smart, either.  And the pick couldn't come until '17 at the earliest (they owe their top 18 protected '15 1st to DEN). I'd be more interested in the deal if you replaced Sully with Bass.

I completely forgot about the pick they traded for Waiters. At that point the best I would do is Thonrnton/random big for Jackson/Perkins/#1.

 

[DourDoerr]

With the C's owning the Clips 1st round pick this year, it's interesting to note that Blake Griffin will be out 4-6 weeks due to a staph infection in his elbow requiring surgery
 
The Clips are currently 6th in the West, 1/2 game ahead of the Spurs, and 4.5 games up on the Suns for the 8 spot. After that, we have NO and OKC on the outside looking in, who are 6 and 7 losses behind the Clips in the loss category, respectively. 

The lack of depth that has hurt the Clips all year is about to really test Doc's team. It's not likely that they fall out of the playoffs, but I'll be keeping an eye on the Clips over the next few weeks to see how they deal with the loss of Blake. 
LAC next 10 games: @OKC, @DAL, HOU, SA, SAC, MEM, @HOU, @MEM, @CHI, @MIN.  Anything over 2 or 3 wins is going to be impressive. 

Great timing on Griffith's part - that's a real gauntlet, especially with all the away games.  From ESPN stats & info:  
 
"The Elias Sports Bureau notes that they (Clippers) have the toughest schedule between February 9 and March 15 (a 15-game stretch feature 12 teams above .500) among current Western Conference playoff teams. Only the Timberwolves have a tougher schedule through that date."