Celtics Draft Jayson Tatum at #3

slamminsammya

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All models are wrong. Some models are useful.

I don't think it's actually linear (few things really are), but it sure looks close enough to it that it may not matter.
It captures something that is intuitively true from watching basketball, which is that it becomes harder to make buckets if you have more offensive responsibility.
 

bowiac

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FTFY.

BTW, the players for whom it is not true are insanely valuable. Like Kyrie Irving.
It's true even for Kyrie. He's at around 30% usage right now. If he could push that to 40% (where Westbrook was last year), without losing efficiency, he should do that.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's true even for Kyrie. He's at around 30% usage right now. If he could push that to 40% (where Westbrook was last year), without losing efficiency, he should do that.
Agreed (as I was being partially facetious).

But my overall point is that scoring efficiently when everyone the gym knows that the player is going to shoot is incredibly difficult because a player has to have multiple moves and the ability to score at multiple levels. Those are the guys a team needs to have to win championships. Kyrie is one of those guys.
 

dbn

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Okay, I think I get his point but it's being worded poorly. There is no significant anti-correlation between usage and TS. In fact, there seems there might be a very slight but probably not significant correlation. However, when you consider only highest usage players, there does seem to be a trend. I made a cartoon (i.e., not representing actual data, just a made-up plot to demonstrate a thought):

I think the author of that article is looking high-end wings of the distributions of TS for the players with medium-high to high usage.

Edit: another way to put it. Higher TS players tend to have a slightly higher usage, but if you look at the high-TS wings of the cartoon plots it's actually a bit more likely that you are among the highest TS if your usage is somewhat lower.
 
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slamminsammya

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I think the author of that article is looking high-end wings of the distributions of TS for the players with medium-high to high usage.

Edit: another way to put it. Higher TS players tend to have a slightly higher usage, but if you look at the high-TS wings of the cartoon plots it's actually a bit more likely that you are among the highest TS if your usage is somewhat lower.
This makes sense. If you are bad you should take less shots. If you are better than bad you take more because you are more efficient. As you get really good players they are taking a lot of shots but paying a price for it.
 

lovegtm

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It's true even for Kyrie. He's at around 30% usage right now. If he could push that to 40% (where Westbrook was last year), without losing efficiency, he should do that.
What has Kyrie's late game usage been? I'd guess it's significantly higher than at other times, and he's been insanely efficient then. It's pretty clear, however, that the team is prioritizing overall development, balance, and saving Kyrie's energy over squeezing every drop of efficiency out of him.

Your point holds in general, obviously.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know how many here watch the Raptors but those who do will recognize an enormous growth of Jakob Poeltl in Year 2. He's a binkie of mine and is following the Steven Adams growth trajectory.
Kinda, except he is a year older than Adams was at the same point. Adams didn't see much improvement his 3rd year though.
 

JimBoSox9

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So when the chips are down, the Celtics do exactly as bowiac suggests, and it works really really well. That suggests they think there are other useful reasons to NOT do this throughout the whole game, and it would be interesting to know why.
Isn't it as simple as energy & stamina being finite resources?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So when the chips are down, the Celtics do exactly as bowiac suggests, and it works really really well. That suggests they think there are other useful reasons to NOT do this throughout the whole game, and it would be interesting to know why.
look at some of the plays in this article about Kyrie: https://fansided.com/2017/12/07/kyrie-irving-evolution-celtics-mvp-al-horford/.

Kyrie has room at the rim because Horford (and others) have established themselves who need to be guarded outside of the paint. If Kyrie were just chucking up shots all game, the team would be a lot easier to guard.
 

The Needler

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The first unit is better than the second unit; they should play more minutes if they can keep that up.

I'm sure this discussion is interesting to some here, but it's very tangentially-related to Tatum at this point. It would be great if a mod could split it out.
 

Cesar Crespo

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lovegtm

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Has anyone ever looked at the predictive value of made 3 pointers not hitting the rim? It would seem logical that not all made shots are created equal.
 

BigSoxFan

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Has anyone ever looked at the predictive value of made 3 pointers not hitting the rim? It would seem logical that not all made shots are created equal.
How would you even begin to get the data you’d need to analyze that?
 

moly99

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The first unit is better than the second unit; they should play more minutes if they can keep that up.

I'm sure this discussion is interesting to some here, but it's very tangentially-related to Tatum at this point. It would be great if a mod could split it out.
In addition to fatigue there are injury and player development issues to consider. Maximizing this year's regular season performance by riding our first team as hard as possible (to the detriment of future years and the playoffs) is a bad idea.
 

lovegtm

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How would you even begin to get the data you’d need to analyze that?
Well, I know *how* you'd get it, but I also know that I have very little interest in watching every made jumper of the past 15 years. Was more musing wrt Tatum's tendency to swish at what seems to be a really high rate.
 

the moops

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Dunc'd on podcast just went through their rankings of SFs. Covington was in a tier above Tatum and Brown. If I can remember correctly, tiers were something like this

LeBron
KD, Kawhi
Butler, George, Hayward, Simmons
Covington, Middleton, Porter, Iguodola, Barnes
Ariza, Crowder, Tatum, Brown, Oladipo, and a few others
 

lovegtm

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Putting Simmons with Butler, George, and Hayward seems really really premature.

Edit: and Crowder with Tatum is a complete joke, but LeRoux and Duncan obviously have a whole league to cover, and tend to be weirdly biased in favor of "system players" like Crowder.
 

the moops

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Well, I think they were trying to balance how players are currently doing, with what they have shown in the past. The exercise was supposed to be who would you want for this year,and and especially in the playoffs. They got off of that criteria a little bit with Hayward (obviously) and they were somewhat projecting a year out with Simmons .

But they doubted that Tatum would continue to hit 50% of his threes, and doubted that Crowder would continue to suck so hard, and doubted that Oladipo would stay crazy efficient, and doubted that Iguadola's decline was for real, etc.
 

Cellar-Door

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Simmons is a monster, he has a lot of young LeBron to his game. Strong quick very good passer, can't/won't shoot but still excellent without it. He has the highest ceiling to me of anyone drafted in the last 3 years and it isn't close.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Simmons is a monster, he has a lot of young LeBron to his game. Strong quick very good passer, can't/won't shoot but still excellent without it. He has the highest ceiling to me of anyone drafted in the last 3 years and it isn't close.
If he was "just" a 6'10 de-facto rookie putting up 17.5/9/7.7 on 50% shooting, I'd be bullish enough, but he's doing it while playing elite defense. When people used the "what if he's just a 6'10 version of Rondo?" as pejorative, I don't think they really thought through how good a 6'10 version of good Rondo would be. You can't play him like the Lakers played Rondo- sag off him and you basically just give him a running start to the basket, and with his vision, strength and body control, he's either going to finish over you, find an open cutter, or draw a foul. So you play him straight and hope he doesn't beat you all night with that quick first step of his. He's already so impressive operating from the high post, if he develops a serviceable jumper he'll be one of the best offensive weapons in the league. Factor in his massive defensive potential, and I don't think it's a stretch to say he has a higher ceiling than KAT or Jokic.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Ringer has Simmons as the 14th best player in the NBA this season and the 4th best wing player. Maybe we're just missing something with him.
Here's what people are missing:


(For those who can't see twitter: "Ben Simmons is the only player since 1983 to have 400+ points, 200+ rebounds, and 150+ assists in his first 25 NBA games. In fact, since 1993, only KG, LeBron, and Westbrook have put up those numbers in the first 25 games of a season at any point in their careers".) (bold added)

source: http://www.news.com.au/sport/american-sports/nba/brett-brown-says-ben-simmons-has-exceeded-expectations-in-rookie-season/news-story/a878fc1fede0afe0508b4d02bc7df375
 

the moops

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If he was "just" a 6'10 de-facto rookie putting up 17.5/9/7.7 on 50% shooting, I'd be bullish enough, but he's doing it while playing elite defense.
Is he really playing elite defense though? I thought it was more about his versatility and ability to competently cover 1-4 than actual elite play.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Is he really playing elite defense though? I thought it was more about his versatility and ability to competently cover 1-4 than actual elite play.
I think versatility and ability to competently cover 1-4 are pretty big components of elite defense, but yeah, Simmons looks like an elite defender by the numbers. He's 5th overall in DBPM, behind Drummond, Gobert, Capela and Kyle Anderson (!!!), and 23rd overall in DRPM, with Roberson, Sefolosha and Covington as the only non-bigs ahead of him. That's incredibly impressive as a rookie. From what I've seen, the vision and quickness he shows on offense translates well on defense. He's second in the league in steals per game. Even if you think the stats overstate his true level of D right now, they're pretty damn promising. Being smart, quick and huge is pretty good baseline for a defensive toolkit.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Putting Simmons with Butler, George, and Hayward seems really really premature.
I really don't feel it is. Simmons has been a legit game changer. 18/9/8 while shooting above 50% for a rookie in this league is Bird/Magic level stuff.

But his team didn't make it to the NCAA tournament!
I've preached this every year most notably during the Jaylen Brown pre-draft/draft day discussions but the NCAA and NBA are leagues playing under different rules, personnel, and systems. I'm recognize that there are some metrics that translate but I'm wary about the things that cannot be measured by the vast differences in the game. That LSU team had Blakeney, Quarterman, and a bunch of transfers who couldn't play at their original school and another from NC-Asheville.....same thing with Fultz and Washington when elite players are forced to play down to their teammates skill level.
 
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nighthob

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Dunc'd on podcast just went through their rankings of SFs. Covington was in a tier above Tatum and Brown. If I can remember correctly, tiers were something like this

LeBron
KD, Kawhi
Butler, George, Hayward, Simmons
Covington, Middleton, Porter, Iguodola, Barnes
Ariza, Crowder, Tatum, Brown, Oladipo, and a few others
They're great on salary cap issues, but their talent evaluations can be really wacky and should always be taken with a Bonneville flatland of salt.
 

the moops

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They're great on salary cap issues, but their talent evaluations can be really wacky and should always be taken with a Bonneville flatland of salt.
Somewhat agree, but they do own up to their mistakes and are willing to reevaluate with more info.

I didn't have much issue with their SF rankings minus a few minoe quibbles though
 

Swedgin

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Dunc'd on podcast just went through their rankings of SFs. Covington was in a tier above Tatum and Brown. If I can remember correctly, tiers were something like this

LeBron
KD, Kawhi
Butler, George, Hayward, Simmons
Covington, Middleton, Porter, Iguodola, Barnes
Ariza, Crowder, Tatum, Brown, Oladipo, and a few others
Having just listened to it, Danny and Nate did not have the same tiers. The last tier listed, included Wiggins and not Dipo (he was not classified as SF) and for Danny had Iggy (who also had Covington and Middleton in a tier of their own). The list was not based on long term projections but who would you want for this years playoffs. Accordingly, past performance was considered in terms of the likelihood of players returning to historical performance (Crowder and Iguodola) or regressing towards the mean (Tatum). They both thought Covington was clear the best in that tier based on his defense. Both felt going forward it was likely that Tatum and Brown would move up a tier or more.
 

DGreenwood

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Remember back on page one or two when there was talk about Tatum needing to improve his ability to go to his left, and finish at the rim with his left? That turned out to not be a thing.
 

bakahump

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Most minutes on the team. (yes I know Al had injuries and Kyrie had injuries )

But is the Rookie wall real? And if so how much should we worry that one of our top 5 players is going to come to a screeching (or slowing) halt? Especially with Morris looking like he isnt going to be ready to ride to the rescue.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Most minutes on the team. (yes I know Al had injuries and Kyrie had injuries )

But is the Rookie wall real? And if so how much should we worry that one of our top 5 players is going to come to a screeching (or slowing) halt? Especially with Morris looking like he isnt going to be ready to ride to the rescue.
It obviously wouldn't help, but I don't think it would hurt the team that much as long as Irving and Horford are playing well.
 

Swedgin

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Dunc'd On did their top 10 NBA prospects. To qualify players to be 23 or under as of Feb 2018. Nate had Tatum at 8, whereas Danny put him 11 but had Jaylen in his top 10.
 

lovegtm

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Dunc'd On did their top 10 NBA prospects. To qualify players to be 23 or under as of Feb 2018. Nate had Tatum at 8, whereas Danny put him 11 but had Jaylen in his top 10.
Those guys are fun to listen to, and do a good job watching and commenting on game results and live action. In terms of talent evaluation and projection, however, they are generally quite poor.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Those guys are fun to listen to, and do a good job watching and commenting on game results and live action. In terms of talent evaluation and projection, however, they are generally quite poor.
They gave the Celtics a C- for the preseason (post draft and Hayward signing, pre- Kyrie trade) and were quite negative on the Kyrie deal (one gave them an F-). I'm not taking their grades on anything too seriously.
 

the moops

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I am not sure they are any worse talent evaluators than anyone else. Tatum and Brown in the bottom of the top 10 seems about exactly right to me. Would be curious where everyone here would rank them. Can't see any argument for them to be abive Giannis, Embiid, Simmons, Kristaps, Jokic, or Towns. So in my view we are looking at them both being in a tier with Mitchell, Fultz, Murray, Gordon, Parker and a few others
 

PedroKsBambino

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They gave the Celtics a C- for the preseason (post draft and Hayward signing, pre- Kyrie trade) and were quite negative on the Kyrie deal (one gave them an F-). I'm not taking their grades on anything too seriously.
I have cut back my listening after that one—-not because of the grades but because the rationale was so weak and (we can safely say) so wrong it caused me to reevaluate whether they know enough about evaluation and scouting to be useful. I think it remains an open question. They are good on the cap stuff,and I appreciate how quickly they get a take on things up...but I actually think Simmons knows more basketball than they do, to pick one example
 

the moops

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My top 10 would look something like this.

Tier 1 - Giannis
Tier 2 - Embiid, Porzingis
Tier 3 - Towns, Jokic, Simmons
Tier 4 - Mitchell, Gordon, Parker

Then a bunch of dudes fighting for the tenth spot including Wiggins, Tatum, Fultz, Booker, Murray, Jaylen, Ball, Nurkic, etc.