Celtics Crazy Schedule

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If anyone wanted some breakdown of the Cs brutal schedule, here's some good info: http://www.celticshub.com/2017/12/27/hard-celtics-schedule-hit/

For example, after Dec. 9, the Cs played 12 games in 19 days. During that time, the Cs will have played seven games that were their third in four nigh

Also, they’ve had only three games proceeded by two or more days of rest, and one of those is the opening game of the season. In contrast, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Sacramento have all had over ten games like that.

More at the link.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If anyone wanted some breakdown of the Cs brutal schedule, here's some good info: http://www.celticshub.com/2017/12/27/hard-celtics-schedule-hit/

For example, after Dec. 9, the Cs played 12 games in 19 days. During that time, the Cs will have played seven games that were their third in four nigh

Also, they’ve had only three games proceeded by two or more days of rest, and one of those is the opening game of the season. In contrast, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Sacramento have all had over ten games like that.

More at the link.
Thanks for this.

Thibs would have the C's going with a four man rotation if he were their coach during this stretch.
 

lovegtm

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If anyone wanted some breakdown of the Cs brutal schedule, here's some good info: http://www.celticshub.com/2017/12/27/hard-celtics-schedule-hit/

For example, after Dec. 9, the Cs played 12 games in 19 days. During that time, the Cs will have played seven games that were their third in four nigh

Also, they’ve had only three games proceeded by two or more days of rest, and one of those is the opening game of the season. In contrast, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Sacramento have all had over ten games like that.

More at the link.
That's crazy. I didn't realize how common 2 rest days have been for other teams; bodes very well for the 2nd half of the season.
 

Gash Prex

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We have played 38 games - the most compared to any other team in the same time frame. Most teams are between 33 and 35 - Raptors only with 33. Its been especially impressive given all the changes on the fly we have made due to injuries and very little practice time.
 

joe dokes

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I think what we've seen after the streak is that they cannot keep up *that* pace while: a) shorthanded; and b) playing 3 games in two nights every other day. But even shorthanded and back-to-back (3 in 4), they cranked up the defensive pressure to 11 (on the Tufnel Scale) last night. A more rested and practiced team could go back to the team that streaked.
 

Imbricus

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I'm glad someone started this thread (I almost started one myself) because I've been wondering about the effects of the schedule on the team. Has it cost 2, 3 wins? Or is it more or less a non-factor? I'm starting to swing around to the opinion that the crazy schedule is significant not so much because of lack of rest but because of lack of practice. E.g., look at this article, "Team finally able to conduct first practice of month." The first practice of month at the end of the month? That's crazy.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm glad someone started this thread (I almost started one myself) because I've been wondering about the effects of the schedule on the team. Has it cost 2, 3 wins? Or is it more or less a non-factor? I'm starting to swing around to the opinion that the crazy schedule is significant not so much because of lack of rest but because of lack of practice. E.g., look at this article, "Team finally able to conduct first practice of month." The first practice of month at the end of the month? That's crazy.

Is it possible the schedule is a positive? Rhythm and all that.
 

steveluck7

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I heard Stevens on the radio this week and he said that they hadn't had a "taped"* practice since mid October.

* taped - players have their ankles, etc. taped
 

slamminsammya

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The practice thing is huge for a team with only three returning players from last year. Learning on the fly has been going well but it is clear that the lack of rest and practice has caught up to them. Or maybe its just null hypothesis regression to the mean and it has no impact.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Practice should help the Cs clean up small mistakes on both ends, while running plays and making rotations.

One other thing we can look forward to in the coming weeks: a bigger role for JT. Practice will allow Brad to install or tweak some actions to make use of JT's talents.
 

joe dokes

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Practice should help the Cs clean up small mistakes on both ends, while running plays and making rotations.

One other thing we can look forward to in the coming weeks: a bigger role for JT. Practice will allow Brad to install or tweak some actions to make use of JT's talents.

While no practice is hardly a positive, the long run without it probably means that Stevens can have no questions that he has a large enough sample of games to see what sort of changes/tweaks he can make for *every* player. Along with Tatum, I see Larkin as a guy who has gone from afterthought to useful curiosity that can be even more useful.
Until now, a lot of the offense has been greased by the wiles of Horford and Irving. I think practice time will also help Brown, who has, in many respects, had to step into Hayward's spot.
 

InstaFace

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Down to three now?
I was thinking about making a joke about one of the returners along the lines of "did he ever really come back", but frankly, all of Brown, Horford, Rozier and Smart are playing their fucking minds out, to the best of their considerable abilities. I mean, who can you make jokes about on the current team? Marcus Morris, maybe?

Somewhere, Boston sports radio hosts weep with every comeback victory and defensive masterclass.
 

nighthob

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Before the season I was expecting them to return from the London game with 26-28 wins ready to cruise to a mid fifties win season. Six minutes into the season I figured they’d come back from London with 23-24 wins and bust their ass to reach the 50 win plateau.

This has been unreal, even if the Sixers win in London Boston is going to break 60 wins.
 

Manzivino

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That’s skewed a little by the 1 game in 9 days they’re about to embark on. The better comparison is 37 games over the final 82 days of the season.

It is great that they’ve played as well as they have and now get a mini-vacation and a relaxed second half. They’re going to need every win to outpace the Raptors/Cavs for the 1 seed.
 

Montana Fan

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They’re 6 games ahead of the Raps in the win column. I do think it’s important that they finish #1 in the east and set up the Cavs/Raps second round series. Raps are pretty darn good but seem to wilt under the bright lights of Cleveland. I’d be fine with not facing them.
 

JCizzle

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As a fan it kinda sucks that they have one game - at 3pm! - between last Saturday and next Tuesday (16th). This London trip is dumb.

Obviously it also happens to coincide with the Bruins bye week too.
 

allstonite

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As a fan it kinda sucks that they have one game - at 3pm! - between last Saturday and next Tuesday (16th). This London trip is dumb.

Obviously it also happens to coincide with the Bruins bye week too.
Did anyone between the teams or leagues talk when making schedules? It feels like they've played on the same night every game (including back to backs last week) and then this matching bye weeks. I haven't been able to watch as much Bruins this year as I'd want.
 

the moops

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IWith the teams sharing a building, the mos timportant aspect is just splitting those home games up. There are only so many open days when that is settled, that getting proper time off between games is the key, and not whether the other Boston team is playing the same night.
 

uk_sox_fan

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They’re 6 games ahead of the Raps in the win column. I do think it’s important that they finish #1 in the east and set up the Cavs/Raps second round series. Raps are pretty darn good but seem to wilt under the bright lights of Cleveland. I’d be fine with not facing them.
If the Wiz get hot and the Cavs continue to coast from time-to-time it's conceivable that Cleveland ends the reg season in 4th and the C's and Raps could find themselves considering whether it might be better to finish 2nd to avoid a 2R matchup with Cleveland...
 

mostman

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As a fan it kinda sucks that they have one game - at 3pm! - between last Saturday and next Tuesday (16th). This London trip is dumb.

Obviously it also happens to coincide with the Bruins bye week too.
Tell me about it. This stretch is going to drive me to finally purchasing League Pass.
 

chilidawg

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If the Wiz get hot and the Cavs continue to coast from time-to-time it's conceivable that Cleveland ends the reg season in 4th and the C's and Raps could find themselves considering whether it might be better to finish 2nd to avoid a 2R matchup with Cleveland...
Gotta beat em sooner or later. Doesn't really matter if it's 2nd round or ECF.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Gotta beat em sooner or later. Doesn't really matter if it's 2nd round or ECF.
I'd rather the Cs face Cleveland or Toronto than Cleveland and Toronto. The assumption is that the best way to make that happen is to claim the top seed in the Conference - but if the Cavs finish 4th the equation changes so that the 2nd seed may be better.
 

InstaFace

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dhellers had a great post in the Jaylen Brown thread that I didn't want to get lost in the shuffle:
Celts are 6 games up on Cleve (in the loss column) with 16 to go (Wizards and Pacers 8 losses back).

Note that the celts have a 69.7 win %, about 66% at home and 70% on the road!

Being slightly pessimistic, or assuming the celts rest players, a rough guess (see the table below) is the celts go 9 and 7 (0.56).

IOW: unless your worry that Cleveland basically runs the table (18 games)--- or you think you can catch Toronto --- starting right about NOW is time to rest ALL injuries.

(I am sure a much better simulation is possible that the following,...)
(Damn, my table got messed up, hence the coarse formatting)

For simplicity, I use 4 classes with the following probability of winnng:
Easy win (80%), WIn (60%), Toss up (50%), Loss (40%)

Team Road? Outcome
----------------------------------------
Ind (3/11) Win
Wash (3/14) Win
Orl (3/16) Road Win
NO (3/18) Road Loss
OKC (3/20) Win
Por (3/23) Road Loss
SAC (3/25) Road Win
Pho (3/26) Road Win
Uta (3/28) Road Loss
Tor (3/31) Tossup
Mil (4/3) Road Tossup
Tor (4/4) Road Loss
Chi (4/6) Easy
Atl (4/8) Easy
Was (4/10) Road Tossup
Bkn (4/11) Easy


Expected wins=9.1 ( 3*0.8 + 6*0.6+ 3*0.5 + 4*0.4)
So, certainly with us being almost half through this list, with dropping the first 2 games but then getting 1 back @POR, it's time to talk about rest and staying sharp down the stretch.

Barring us sweeping TOR and picking up another game on them during the other 3 games to make a late bid for #1, what we really want is to give Cleveland a boost at dropping to the 4-seed; unfortunately, we have no additional games against Philly or Indy to tank for.

That said, I think the coaching staff might get into the game for that 4/11 B2B to close out the season vs Brooklyn.
 

DJnVa

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Since he posted that Smart and Irving got hurt and won’t be back til postseason. There’s only so many guys we can rest. Calculus is gonna be tough.
 

InstaFace

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I would assume concern for Tatum would be to reduce from his current 30 MPG. He's clearly not hitting any sort of rookie wall, but even at 19 years old he could probably use a week to recharge... or at least a cut down to 20 MPG for part of the remaining stretch. Throw Nadir to the wolves, who cares.

Brown is probably fine after his 2-week vacation, that probably did wonders for various nagging knocks, as well as for his noggin.

Al Horford is no spring chicken, however. If they don't rest him for at least the last game if not the last 2, I'll be surprised. With how much they're going to need him over the following 2 months, if he has so much as a sidestitch out there, there is absolutely no benefit to rolling him out rather than giving him a week of R&R. With Monroe and Baynes keeping him from having to play a lot of 5, give me more Semi and Yabu-dabu-doo. I mean, hell, we want to lose the last game, unless the 1-seed is in play.

(also: Holy shit, Aron Baynes is 31 years old!)
 

DJnVa

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Per Tatum he’s not hitting a rookie wall because he hit it already and has worked through it.
 

Al Zarilla

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I would assume concern for Tatum would be to reduce from his current 30 MPG. He's clearly not hitting any sort of rookie wall, but even at 19 years old he could probably use a week to recharge... or at least a cut down to 20 MPG for part of the remaining stretch.
Jayson turned 20 on March 3. Yeah, the man is stepping it up to another level. As soon as they clinch the second spot, Brad’ll probably start resting him more.
 

dhellers

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dhellers had a great post in the Jaylen Brown thread that I didn't want to get lost in the shuffle:

So, certainly with us being almost half through this list, with dropping the first 2 games but then getting 1 back @POR, it's time to talk about rest and staying sharp down the stretch.

Barring us sweeping TOR and picking up another game on them during the other 3 games to make a late bid for #1, what we really want is to give Cleveland a boost at dropping to the 4-seed; unfortunately, we have no additional games against Philly or Indy to tank for.

That said, I think the coaching staff might get into the game for that 4/11 B2B to close out the season vs Brooklyn.
Once KI and MB and JB and DT etc etc went down, I figured my simpleulation was hopelessly optimistic. Which is to say, I am utterly impressed at how well they have done -- winning 4 of 7, with only 2 against lottery bound teams.

So the diktat to 'start resting' is still reasonable .... unless you are worried that Lebron tries to win every remaining game OR that Toronto is about to go start its post season swoon 3 weeks early. Both seem unlikely. But damn... Lebron is capable of crazy stuff.

Perhaps the Celts should win the games they are supposed to win (i.e; Phoenix, Orlando, Chicago, and Bkn); and do NOT kill themselves beating the good teams (Utah, Toronto x2 , Mil, Wash). Or is there something to be said for playing tough against good opponents -- in order to go into the post season on a streak?

(BTW: Thanks InstaFace for resucitating this!)
 

NoXInNixon

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The magic number to clinch the #2 seed is 4. They still play 3 openly tanking teams. If the Celtics can't hold on to the #2 seed, it won't matter because they'll lose in the first round whoever they play.
 

chilidawg

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Once KI and MB and JB and DT etc etc went down, I figured my simpleulation was hopelessly optimistic. Which is to say, I am utterly impressed at how well they have done -- winning 4 of 7, with only 2 against lottery bound teams.

So the diktat to 'start resting' is still reasonable .... unless you are worried that Lebron tries to win every remaining game OR that Toronto is about to go start its post season swoon 3 weeks early. Both seem unlikely. But damn... Lebron is capable of crazy stuff.

Perhaps the Celts should win the games they are supposed to win (i.e; Phoenix, Orlando, Chicago, and Bkn); and do NOT kill themselves beating the good teams (Utah, Toronto x2 , Mil, Wash). Or is there something to be said for playing tough against good opponents -- in order to go into the post season on a streak?
(BTW: Thanks InstaFace for resucitating this!)
There's so much flux going on with all the injuries that I think it's important for them to continue to play competitively, especially against the good teams. They still need to improve, and that's the best way to do it. Games against Toronto will be especially telling.
 

dhellers

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There's so much flux going on with all the injuries that I think it's important for them to continue to play competitively, especially against the good teams. They still need to improve, and that's the best way to do it. Games against Toronto will be especially telling.
With 8 to go (3/28 morning) the celts are 7 up in the loss column vs Cleve and Phil. Celts are 1-2 vs cleve, and 3-1 against Phil.
So magic number (W + opponent loss) is 2 against Cleve, 1 against Phil.

Remaining schedule (thanks InstaFace #3493)
CLE (5H, 3A): @CHA, NO, DAL, TOR, WAS, @PHI, @NYK, NYK
PHI (5H, 4A): NYK, @ATL, @CHA, BKN, @DET, CLE, DAL, @ATL, MIL
IND (2H, 5A): @SAC, @LAC, @DEN, GS, @TOR, @CHA, CHA

and
BOS(4H,4A): @UTA,TOR,@MIL,@TOR,CHI,ATL,@WAS,BKN
TOR (3H,4A) : @BOS,@CLE,BOS,IND,ORL,@DET,@MIA

It is hard to imagine a losing scenario: say Phi wins out or Cleve just loses one game, and the Celts just win one.
But... all these injuries.
AND the possibility of more injuries. For example: does MaMo get hurt if he isn't trying to manufacture points against a crummy Phoenix?

That is if the Celts opponents decide to play to win (and you have to assume they will), and Tatum feel the need to carry the scoring load -- does he strain his back? Does TRoz twist an ankle trying to pull off an upset in Toronto? (Al I won't worry about, he isn't ashamed to rest when he isn't quite right).

In other words: is a fear of injury because trying to hard a real worry?

Which leads me to chose between 3 strategies:

a) Phil or Cleve are NOT going to run the table. So the Celts should rest everyone, and not worry about winning games.
b) Cleve, and especially Phil (with a weak schedule) might run the table. But the Celts's last 4 games are against bad or an unHot Wizards. So rest now,and turn it on if you have to during the last 4 games.
c) First place looks achievable, and going into the post season with your squad on a competitive roll is a good thing. So screw the worries -- try to catch Toronto.

I lean toward B, which means limits on the minutes of healthy players who matter (TRoz, JT, JB, AH), and semi-shutting down MaMo.
(... on 2nd thought, I would amend this a bit. As a tune up, you go into Washington looking to win)
 

lexrageorge

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It's not possible for both Cleveland and Philly to run the table, so there's that. And, as noted above, if the Celtics lose enough their remaining games to lose the 2nd seed, they will not survive the first round of the playoffs anyway.

I think it is important to play competitively in at least one of those 2 Toronto games. And you cannot coach 10% of your season in fear of injury; if you have a chance to win a game late in the 4th, you have to go for it. That said, I would argue that it's the Wizards game that the Celtics can most afford a tank job, as there is a very high likelihood the seeds will be set by then anyway.
 

chilidawg

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I can just see this happening -- the C's catch Toronto and Cleveland drops to the 4/5 and the Celts have to beat both of them to get to the Finals.
If we're the one seed that will mean we just beat Toronto twice in the last week, and we now have home court in the ECF. I don't think it's that unlikely either that Philly beats one of those teams, especially the Cav's. I'm not scared of being #1.