Catching Controversy
- Thread starter Sprowl
- Start date
It might make sense to start Vazquez in Porcello's games, since he's right handed and more likely to have runners try to steal on him (or at least LHP typically hold runners better). Wright might be a different story. Would Vaz's arm make up enough of the lost time of the knuckler, or is it mostly a lost cause?
Probably a lost cause. The value of Vaz catching Wright would be more about framing, and about athleticism reducing the damage on wild pitches.
Leon is Porcello's personal catcher. That battery is set. I agree with SH's assessment of Vaz getting Wright. So if that happens, it would make sense. Regardless of who gets the most starts, I think you can pencil in Porcello-Leon and Rodriguez-Vazquez. Those two combinations appear to be set based on past metrics.
Yea I saw him too and I still couldn't believe it. I'll need a few more months of Schwarber-like production before I'm a believer. I'm hoping we get it, but I'm not sold on the body of work to date.We all saw him last Summer and for a while he looked like Kyle Schwarber
I don't think Wright is a lost cause for stolen bases. He has a good pick off and is pretty quick to the plate. He has only had 13 stolen bases against him with 6 caught stealing in a large enough sample to think he isn't easy to run on. PB and WP are both going to be high, but straight steals and the impact CV has on them are well within normal and not to be written off.
I would like to see CV get the 60% of a 60/40 split. I loved the Leon good-times-roll last year, but that isn't who he is, and with neither having a big offensive upside, I would like to see more defensive innings of the Yadier Molina clone and not as many of the Benji Molina clone (although any Molina is a good thing) until Swihart's bat is considered back up to speed sometime in May.
I would like to see CV get the 60% of a 60/40 split. I loved the Leon good-times-roll last year, but that isn't who he is, and with neither having a big offensive upside, I would like to see more defensive innings of the Yadier Molina clone and not as many of the Benji Molina clone (although any Molina is a good thing) until Swihart's bat is considered back up to speed sometime in May.
If he's gonna have a streak at the plate, ride it as much as you can, as long as it's there. I hope he's as hot as he was to begin last summer when he got called up.
I just hope they don't change plans to play him 3 of 5 games and Vazquez the other 2 and overwork Leon and tucker him out.
Yep - there should be 0 reasons for doing this, especially in the chilly early season. I would imagine he gets a day off today...hopefully Vaz will give everyone reason to remember why this is a debate.
Is there really a controversy at all right now? For the time being, Leon is the primary starting catching. He's defensively solid (which is what he was known for in the minors) and has seemingly improved significantly with the bat. Until proved otherwise, he's the guy.
Time the market. Figure out when his swing speed slows down this year, and then drape a "For Sale" sandwich board over him during games. Unless Swihart forgets which end of the bat to hold or something.
Let's remember our age-and-odometer-related upsides:
Swihart: 25 years old, 383 ML PA; 6 seasons minors, 1466 PA
Vazquez: 26 years old, 385 ML PA; 8 seasons minors, 2193 PA, plus 6 seasons / 513 PA of Foreign ball
León: 28 years old, 521 ML PA; 10 seasons minors, 2319 PA, plus 6 seasons / 569 PA of Foreign ball
I will gladly take the latest León hot streak, but the error bars on what kind of hitter he can become are far smaller than the others.
Let's remember our age-and-odometer-related upsides:
Swihart: 25 years old, 383 ML PA; 6 seasons minors, 1466 PA
Vazquez: 26 years old, 385 ML PA; 8 seasons minors, 2193 PA, plus 6 seasons / 513 PA of Foreign ball
León: 28 years old, 521 ML PA; 10 seasons minors, 2319 PA, plus 6 seasons / 569 PA of Foreign ball
I will gladly take the latest León hot streak, but the error bars on what kind of hitter he can become are far smaller than the others.
I'm with this guy. Vaz may unquestionably be better defensively, but that doesn't mean Leon is bad by any stretch, and the difference in offense is significant. Unless we start to see the pitchers talk about throwing to Leon versus Vaz, he should see 3 out of every 5 starts, at least.
Folks eager to jettison Sandy for Blake ought to ask Chris Sale about it. It may just be new guy trying to make nice, but his remarks last night indicated he really really really likes throwing to Leon.
The thing with Leon is... it's not like he just got hot... he made significant mechanical adjustments with Chilly and it allowed him to get hot. Was his hot streak sustainable? Hell no, they never are. But not everyone has the ability to just start hitting the shit out of the ball.
This is a player that's head is almost a foot taller at the plate than it previously was - with a stance that's about a foot narrower than it was. He's got 28 extra base hits in his last 260 at bats - that's elite stuff - that takes legitimate talent. I think, at the very least, he'll be okay with the bat. And that's valuable as hell. Trying to "market time" his streaks and slumps seems really really ill advised.
This is a player that's head is almost a foot taller at the plate than it previously was - with a stance that's about a foot narrower than it was. He's got 28 extra base hits in his last 260 at bats - that's elite stuff - that takes legitimate talent. I think, at the very least, he'll be okay with the bat. And that's valuable as hell. Trying to "market time" his streaks and slumps seems really really ill advised.
Just to be clear, it's not "market timing," unless you think that Leon's ability to improve/sustain is random out into the future. He is guaranteed to decline. You're not looking at an asset that might improve or decline.
Looking at Sale's splits on baseball-reference, the vast majority of his innings were in a battery with either Tyler Flowers or AJ Pierzynski. I don't know what Flowers rep is a receiver, but liking to throw to Sandy may have something to do with AJ setting the bar low.
Hard to measure Flowers' defense. He has 26 career dWAR, but is all over the map in pitch framing from year to year (2nd in 2015, but middle of the pack or worse in other seasons). He also threw out 6% of runners last year. . . so I think Sale is pretty happy with whomever the Sox trot out.
I tend to think pitchers just threw what AJP wanted to avoid him coming out to the mound and speaking.
Sandy had an 0.852 OPS in his true first season as a regular. His career OPS at the AAA level was 0.720 in 436 at bats.
If we assume that Leon's true talent level at the plate is between a 0.700 to 0.750 OPS, is he worth keeping? And, if you believe his talent level at the plate is less than that, why do you feel that way, given the stats above?
I must admit I've been hoping for some time for a Swihart/Vazquez platoon behind the plate. Still haven't given that up. But, for now, it makes sense to ride Leon for as long as possible.
If we assume that Leon's true talent level at the plate is between a 0.700 to 0.750 OPS, is he worth keeping? And, if you believe his talent level at the plate is less than that, why do you feel that way, given the stats above?
I must admit I've been hoping for some time for a Swihart/Vazquez platoon behind the plate. Still haven't given that up. But, for now, it makes sense to ride Leon for as long as possible.
Southern BoSox said: "The thing with Leon is... it's not like he just got hot... he made significant mechanical adjustments with Chilly and it allowed him to get hot. Was his hot streak sustainable? Hell no, they never are. But not everyone has the ability to just start hitting the shit out of the ball.
This is a player that's head is almost a foot taller at the plate than it previously was - with a stance that's about a foot narrower than it was."
Also, I am pretty sure they said his head was moving way too much before he made his adjustments. His new stance/swing keeps his head still, which you'd have to think helps.
This is a player that's head is almost a foot taller at the plate than it previously was - with a stance that's about a foot narrower than it was."
Also, I am pretty sure they said his head was moving way too much before he made his adjustments. His new stance/swing keeps his head still, which you'd have to think helps.
You put everything together in this thread -- the tangible adjustments Leon made that directly preceded an unprecedented stretch of hitting, the 167 games he played (astonishing for a catcher) -- and it's very hard for me to think that Leon shouldn't get a lot of rope. Comparing the Leon of pre-adjustment also feels unfair: he's a different hitter now, just in terms of qualitative approach at the plate. He's already got as many extra base hits this year as he collected in 40 games in 2015. I think we'll need to see a whole 'nother season to establish some kind of baseline for him.
That said, the BABIP from last year was ludicrously high even after his drop-off, so those who've speculated a a line that clocks him in for an OPS around .700 are probably going to be right. Keeping in mind that Blake hasn't put up a line like Leon did in the majors last year since AA in 2014, the job is Leon's to lose.
This works for me. I'd like to see the Sox rebuild a strong farm system and this would be the chance. If Leon has a good first half, trade him for a quality prospect since we have two other decent catchers to step in. And Swihart's upside intrigues us all. The same goes for Pomeranz for that matter. Hope he pitches well and if the abundance of starters are healthy, trade Pomeranz for another quality prospect. I just don't know if Dombrowski thinks this way based on what he's been doing - trading rather than obtaining prospects
Trading away a starting catcher - who is performing well enough to command real prospects in a trade - to bring up a catcher performing well in AAA is something I can't imagine a contending team doing. It's something you'd do in a video game, and sounds great I'm theory but has serious question marks.
Regarding BABIP, I mentioned this last season, but even after Leon cooled off a bit it seemed like every game he'd have an AB where he would hit the ball right on the screws. That didn't all fall in for hits, but I agree the 2016 Leon is a different hitter than his previous seasons.
The early returns are looking good.
Leon with an OPS of 1.000, and CV with an OPS of 2.800.
Sox haven't allowed a stolen base yet, and are tied for the lead in MLB with 4 runners caught stealing.
Leon with an OPS of 1.000, and CV with an OPS of 2.800.
Sox haven't allowed a stolen base yet, and are tied for the lead in MLB with 4 runners caught stealing.
Including ST 2017 and the Minors, since 2016 Blake Swihart has 34bb/46k in 262 PA. That is a walk rate of 13.0% and a K rate of 17.6%.
In his first 1653 PA, his walk rate was 7.4% and his K rate was 18.5%. Over those 262 PA, he's at .269/.366/.354. Not sure if it means much of anything but interesting to see the huge spike in walk rate accompanied with a huge decline in power.
In his first 1653 PA, his walk rate was 7.4% and his K rate was 18.5%. Over those 262 PA, he's at .269/.366/.354. Not sure if it means much of anything but interesting to see the huge spike in walk rate accompanied with a huge decline in power.
And just to add even more sss and fun to the thread, CV is currently 5 for 5, BA of 1.000, SLG of 1.800, and OPS of 2.800. No doubt he won't keep this for long, but it is fun right now to have three catchers who are hitting.
A poster above said he hope CV would perform well enough to warrant the thread's title. So far so good.
A poster above said he hope CV would perform well enough to warrant the thread's title. So far so good.
That caught stealing was about 40% Vazquez and 60% Pedroia slapping down the tag lightning fast.
Yup, he's fully back from TJS. He didn't have a bad arm last year, but it wasn't that same cannon that it had been.
I guess we can argue about excellence, but Pedey doesn't have a chance without that ridiculously quick release by Vazquez.
No doubt, especially on a breaking ball. But while quick, it wasn't a great throw and I thought Pedroia bailed him out with the tag. I'd be willing to amend to 50/50.
Scott Lauber ESPN Staff Writer
Rifle-armed Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez was "scared" to let loose with throws early last season because "it's hard to be 100 percent after (Tommy John elbow) surgery" in 2015. When did fear subside? "One throw in winter ball," said Vazquez, who cut down two Pirates basestealers, including one in the ninth inning, Thursday. "I threw a guy out and I said, 'That's the arm I know.'"
Rifle-armed Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez was "scared" to let loose with throws early last season because "it's hard to be 100 percent after (Tommy John elbow) surgery" in 2015. When did fear subside? "One throw in winter ball," said Vazquez, who cut down two Pirates basestealers, including one in the ninth inning, Thursday. "I threw a guy out and I said, 'That's the arm I know.'"
Last caught stealing of the year? Really, though with his pre-injury history and proven form this year, they have to stop attempting it. His arm is pretty insane, in 2014 he was 50% in throwing runners out, in SSS he might be able to better that.
Even in .gif that's fast. ..
.. Compressed video is better, but I'm not sure you could embed gfycat.Oh, that's good mathing. Here's some science that puts Swihart's pitch framing atop the minor league leaderboards (while positing that still he'd be a quantum step down from Vázquez).
Sandy León looks like the real tradebait here, 'cause I was looking for more reasons to root for that guy.
Unless I'm reading that wrong, it was Swihart at 20 and Vazquez at 31. Vazquez was the only player listed to lose value under the new system, going from 35 to 31.
The breaking ball may actually have helped. The pitch was up allowing CV to get out of his crouch and behind the throw quickly.
I love these three things: CV's mask flying off with the throw. Frazier slumping on his elbow after the tag. Pedey's fist pump.
It's clear opponents will have to change their running plans with Bam Muchacho behind the plate.
I think he'll only have to worry about the guys with elite speed from here.
I'm a bigger Swihart fan than most but I'm coming around on the idea of Swihart being the trade bait around the ASB if Leon's bat is anything near what it looks like (.750 - .850 ops range) and Vazquez can live anywhere above .600.