Can The Red Sox Survive Their Starting Rotation?

[Al Zarilla]

Had MLB Network on a bit just now and Pee Wee Herman and Julius LaRosa, I mean Ken Rosenthal and Mark DeRosa were flat out laughing at this pitching staff. "Not exactly throwing a bunch of AA pitchers out there, they spent a lot of money on these guys". DeRosa, who is far from the sharpest pencil in the box said none of the Sox starters were ever a #1 except Masterson in Cleveland. Yeah, how long did that last. Don't like hearing this shit first thing in the morning. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I could understand more preaching patience if the alternative was trading valuable pieces for expensive options like Hamels.  Not that I would be opposed to moving on him but the "don't panic, it's only April 29" mantra makes a lot more sense to me if we are talking about giving up talented prospects and absorbing salary.

Some are talking about trading for outside options (not just Hamels, but Cueto and Garza among others have been brought up). But even setting that talk aside, it isn't as simple as call up Johnson and/or Rodriguez and let them have at it. You have to do something with the pitchers already in the rotation to make room. They extended Miley and Porcello, and Buchholz and Masterson are a bit too expensive to just cut or dump for pennies three weeks into the season. What do you do with these guys thay you already commited to when it's not even a month into the season? Doesn't dumping them constitute "absorbing" salary?

 

[ivanvamp]

In my plan, Buchholz is dealt away, Masterson is moved to the pen, and Miley is sent to AAA to work out the kinks.  Acquire two veterans and then call up Rodriguez or Johnson.  If Miley gets his act together, it's a nice "problem" to have.  

 

[TheoShmeo]

Some are talking about trading for outside options (not just Hamels, but Cueto and Garza among others have been brought up). But even setting that talk aside, it isn't as simple as call up Johnson and/or Rodriguez and let them have at it. You have to do something with the pitchers already in the rotation to make room. They extended Miley and Porcello, and Buchholz and Masterson are a bit too expensive to just cut or dump for pennies three weeks into the season. What do you do with these guys thay you already commited to when it's not even a month into the season? Doesn't dumping them constitute "absorbing" salary?

Fair points but I would rather concede mistakes than continue to roll out pitchers who are seemingly not capable of winning starts.
 
If I were running the Red Sox, I would have no problem moving Miley to the pen and frankly dumping Buchholz.  Or better, trading Buck for pennies on the dollar and absorbing a substantial portion of his salary.  We're dealing, in both cases, with sunk rather than additional costs in the event they are replaced in the rotation by minor leaguers.  I'm not including the incremental costs associated with Johnson and Rodriguez as those are small dollars.  

 

[soxhop411]

@alexspeier: Cole Hamels rumors are amplifying, but Red Sox still focused on internal fixes, not trades http://t.co/ansmW6z68W via @BostonGlobe

 

[soxhop411]

@alexspeier: Per @ByDavidMurphy, Phillies taking hard look at Red Sox CF Manuel Margot this week as possible Hamels chip http://t.co/PH6MUflg7a

 

[foulkehampshire]

I think alot of people pegged this team as around a .500 team with upside if the pitching came around. I've seen nothing that disproves that.
 
I mean, this staff can't actually be this bad. Still, I have a hard time imagining more than 80-85 wins unless things drastically change. There's been a disproportionate amount of games played vs teams with elite offenses (9 games vs Toronto, Orioles). Yankees offense has been nothing to sniff at either this year. 
 
It'll normalize a bit, but anything less than consistently stellar performances by the offense is going to be a cap on this team's winning potential.

 

[Toe Nash]

Here's 4 consecutive Wade Miley starts from 2013 (May 13-31):
 
5 IP, 7 R (6 ER)
6 IP, 2 R
3 2/3 IP, 7 R
7 IP, 7 R
 
Total line: 21 2/3 IP, 25 H, 23 R, 22 ER, 6 BB, 15 K, 6 HR, .917 OPS allowed, 9.14 ERA
 
Here's his line this year:
15 2/3 IP, 17 H, 16 R, 15 ER, 11 BB, 10 K, 1 HR, .798 OPS allowed, 8.62 ERA
 
In 2013 he finished with 202 IP and a 3.55 ERA. After the 4 starts above, he had a 2.87 ERA for the rest of the year.
 
I hope the coaching staff is working with him, but...he isn't getting sent to the minors. 

 

[foulkehampshire]

@alexspeier: Per @ByDavidMurphy, Phillies taking hard look at Red Sox CF Manuel Margot this week as possible Hamels chip http://t.co/PH6MUflg7a

 
Who do they bump from the rotation? The only logical candidate right now would be to deal Buchholz with Margot+, who might benefit from the change of scenery and being in a weaker division. If he rebounds, those team options are still attractive.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@alexspeier: Per @ByDavidMurphy, Phillies taking hard look at Red Sox CF Manuel Margot this week as possible Hamels chip http://t.co/PH6MUflg7a

The key points from this article as they should be posted along with any link.
 

This week, the Phillies will dispatch Charlie Manuel to Salem, Va., to take a gander at the Red Sox' Carolina League affiliate, where 20-year-old centerfielder Manuel Margot is coming off a breakout season in which he hit .293/.356/.462 with 12 home runs and 42 steals at Class A and Class A Advanced. Through 15 games this season, Baseball America's No. 72 prospect is 21-for-58 (.362) with eight extra-base hits, six steals, four walks and no strikeouts in 64 plate appearances. It's no secret that the Phillies covet 23-year-old catcher Blake Swihart, but the amount of time they have spent covering the Red Sox' system suggests that they are considering the preparation of something other than a take-it-or-leave-it offer for Boston's top prospect.
A package built around Margot and one of the Red Sox' three highly touted pitching prospects (Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson) might not pay the immediate dividends Amaro yearns for, but it would represent fair value and a significant boost to the Phillies' chances of putting a competent team on the field before the end of the decade. Most crucially, it is better than any of the other entrants in the derby - late-comers included - are likely able to do.
 

Sending Charlie Manuel to scout Manuel Margot is actually the biggest news out of this article.  In December, Peter Gammons wrote the following:
 

Now, Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder Manuel Margot, third baseman Rafael Devers or shortstop Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got Addison Russell, two pitchers in the Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally.
 

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-if-traded-will-hamels-reap-the-desired-return/
 
This would signify that Ruben Amaro is considering other options besides Betts/Swihart.  If he is finally listening to Charlie Manuel, there could be some traction to these rumors.

 

[TomRicardo]

In my plan, Buchholz is dealt away, Masterson is moved to the pen, and Miley is sent to AAA to work out the kinks.  Acquire two veterans and then call up Rodriguez or Johnson.  If Miley gets his act together, it's a nice "problem" to have.  

 
Your plan sucks and is full of holes (much like our bullpen right now but I digress).
 
There is no quick fix.  The Red Sox did their best (Lester's 6.23 ERA would look real sweet right now at the top of our rotation).  They built a rotation and it has been awfully unlucky as has the line up.  I am not sure Hanigan is a guy that you want calling most of your games (Sandy Leon calls an awful game, I am not sure how long he will last as place holder for Swihart).  
 
You aren't going to just trade Buchholz.  There is absolutely no value in that.  It is an idiot move made in a panic.  
 
Nothing tells me Johnson and Rodriguez won't just get lit up the way the team is playing.  
 
The biggest move could be dumping Sandy Leon for Swihart.  

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

Frank Pimentel ‏@FrankBostonTank  7s7 seconds ago
Grant Balfour outright released by Tampa. #RedSox could sign him for pro-rated veteran minimum salary. Would add late-inning experience.
 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 

 
Frank Pimentel ‏@FrankBostonTank  7s7 seconds ago
Grant Balfour outright released by Tampa. #RedSox could sign him for pro-rated veteran minimum salary. Would add late-inning experience.

 

 

 
Haven't we gone past quoting tweets from kids with no access or insider knowledge?

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
Haven't we gone past quoting tweets from kids with no access or insider knowledge?

The fact of the matter is that Balfour was released and could be brought in for the veteran minimum to see if a change of scenery could do him some good.  Did I say that he was going to be signed or did the tweet indicated they were going to sign him?  Nope.  Did I claim that he had "insider knowledge"? No.  If you're going to post a response, please try to advance the conversation by agreeing or disagreeing.

 

[Doctor G]

Send Buchholz to the pen DFA Mujica. Bring up EdRod. i would rather gamble on a young Rodriquez than gamble on including him with Margot in a trade for Hamels. Stop enabling Buchholz. If he wants back in the rotation let him clean up after the other starters for awhile.

 

[TomRicardo]

Send Buchholz to the pen DFA Mujica. Bring up EdRod. i would rather gamble on a young Rodriquez than gamble on including him with Margot in a trade for Hamels. Stop enabling Buchholz. If he wants back in the rotation let him clean up after the other starters for awhile.

 
Why do you think EdRod is a better starting option than Buchholz?
 
Honestly what do you think sending Buchholz to the pen does?  
 
QUICK DO SOMETHING BECAUSE THINGS!11!!1!!

 

[In my lifetime]

I hated the Cole Hamels threads, etc. However, I do think the time for a trade is closing in on the RS. Especially Amaro's quote yesterday in USA Today
 
And if a team isn't prepared to spend the money, Amaro revealed Tuesday that the Phillies would be willing to pay part of Hamels' salary. Hamels is owed $96 million through 2018, and possibly $110 million with his 2019 option.
"We are very open-minded," Amaro said. "We're not afraid to subsidize contracts. We never told a club that we would not absolutely subsidize his contract. That is not a realistic way to do business.
"If there's a deal to be made, and we have to subsidize part of it, we'll do it."
And yes, that includes packaging $13 million closer Jonathan Papelbon with Hamels.
 
I think it is certainly possible to include one player who is a negative asset to the RS (Mujica, Craig, Victorino) could be packaged with prospects along the lines of Margot, Owens, Cecchini.  I think it could substantially help the current RS roster construction in more ways than obviously the starting pitching. Basically exchanging bad contracts in places where the RS have an excess (OF) to a place where the RS have a need (Closer).  I cringe putting together a trade proposal mentioning Hamels, since we have been over that territory ad nauseam, but
Margot, Owens, Cecchini, Craig  for Hamels and Papelbon
would seem to make sense on both sides. Phillies dump a lot of salary, take a flier that Craig (although currently looks like toast is at least recently burnt toast) could still become useful at some point and pick up 3 of baseball's top 100 prospects (including 2 top 40). While the RS would instantly be transformed to WS favorites.  The RS would lose 3 of their top 10 prospects, but at least 2 are blocked to some degree and the farm system is stacked.

 

[TomRicardo]

Look the biggest problem right now for the Red Sox is Porcello.  Not Buchholz or Wade Miley.
 
Porcello is giving up HR at extremely alarming rate for GB pitcher.  I am not sure what to say when you have a starter with 20.7% HR/FB over four games.
 
 
In fact the team in general has a hideous HR/FB rate which to me means poor pitch calling and game planning.  Either everyone sucks (possible) or Hanigan and Leon have done a shit poor job calling baseball games (more likely).  
 
Leon has caught 6 games and 4 of those have been absolute blow outs with the team giving up 8 or more runs.  He has only caught on 1 QS.  

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
Your plan sucks and is full of holes (much like our bullpen right now but I digress).
 
There is no quick fix.  The Red Sox did their best (Lester's 6.23 ERA would look real sweet right now at the top of our rotation).  They built a rotation and it has been awfully unlucky as has the line up.  I am not sure Hanigan is a guy that you want calling most of your games (Sandy Leon calls an awful game, I am not sure how long he will last as place holder for Swihart).  
 
You aren't going to just trade Buchholz.  There is absolutely no value in that.  It is an idiot move made in a panic.  
 
Nothing tells me Johnson and Rodriguez won't just get lit up the way the team is playing.  
 
The biggest move could be dumping Sandy Leon for Swihart.  

What is the basis for this pronouncement?  What would have to tell you?  A little birdy?
 
PS: If it is the catcher or the team behind the pitcher, and it has little to do with the pitcher, then five Pedros shouldn't matter.  Obviously, that's extreme, but just throwing up your hands and saying that the two most promising guys in Pawtucket at the moment wont matter because of the way the team is playing makes little sense.

 

[theapportioner]

Leon has had to pretty much learn about the entire pitching staff on the fly. Hanigan had all of spring training to work with them, but hardly a significant track record. Plus all these new starters, and little institutional knowledge or feel for what works, versus what doesn't work for them.
 
Not sure why we ought to think Swihart would be a huge improvement, from a pitch calling perspective. If anything, blame should go to the GM for shaking things up too much, over the course of one offseason+.
 
Edit: maybe the starting roster does intrinsically suck, and the Sox (and most of SoSH) underestimated how poorly they would perform. But I think there may be some interaction effects related to the fact that so much of the starting pitching is comprised of new players, and that the entire catching roster is, too. Vasquez may have helped mitigate these effects, but nothing we can do about that now.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Wonder if the Red Sox have thought about going to a six-man rotation so they can see what one of the AAAers have and not have to bump anyone to the bullpen?
 

We weren't terribly accustomed to stinkers last year.  By stinkers, I mean fewer than 5 innings.  If you aren't keeping your team in the game at least sack up and get through 5.
 
Last years stinkers:
Lester had 2, but still lasted 4.1 and 4.2 respectively.
Lackey had 1 all year, and left another start with an injury.
Peavy had 1 . .
Clay had 6.  2 of those were bullpen murdering fewer than 3 innings.
Doubront had 4 out of 10 and then was moved to the pen.  They could afford to give him plenty of rope since the rest of the guys were getting it done.
Kelly had 4 stinkers last year, and none so far this year.
Masterson had 10 last year, and was moved to the pen in September.  So  . . grats us on praying he figures it out this year.  1 so far, and 1 exactly 5.
Wade Miley had 3 all year, and 1 was under 3 innings.  None of them were before late June.  He has 2 already.
Porcello had 3 last year.  All in September when rosters were expanded.

 
We didn't see much hitting last year either.  Too bad we couldn't combine last year's pitching staff with this year's lineup.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What is the basis for this pronouncement?  What would have to tell you?  A little birdy?
 
PS: If it is the catcher or the team behind the pitcher, and it has little to do with the pitcher, then five Pedros shouldn't matter.  Obviously, that's extreme, but just throwing up your hands and saying that the two most promising guys in Pawtucket at the moment wont matter because of the way the team is playing makes little sense.

 
Doesn't assuming that Johnson and Rodriguez would be a notable improvement over whichever starter they replace have about as much basis as assuming that none of the current starting five can right their own ship in due course?
 
I'm as gung-ho about the kids as anyone else, but I'm not going to delude myself into believing that the odds that they can come up and improve the staff are the same or significantly better than the odds that Buchholz, Miley, and company can turn things around and be exactly what we want to see out of the rotation over the next 2-3 months.
 
As bad as the rotation has been, all five guys have MLB track records of being better pitchers than what we've seen so far.  None of them have to turn into Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez overnight in order for this team to have success.  Reverting to a semblence of their typical past selves would be more than sufficient.

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
Doesn't assuming that Johnson and Rodriguez would be a notable improvement over whichever starter they replace have about as much basis as assuming that none of the current starting five can right their own ship in due course?
 
I'm as gung-ho about the kids as anyone else, but I'm not going to delude myself into believing that the odds that they can come up and improve the staff are the same or significantly better than the odds that Buchholz, Miley, and company can turn things around and be exactly what we want to see out of the rotation over the next 2-3 months.
 
As bad as the rotation has been, all five guys have MLB track records of being better pitchers than what we've seen so far.  None of them have to turn into Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez overnight in order for this team to have success.  Reverting to a semblence of their typical past selves would be more than sufficient.

I don't think so.  Both have been pitching extremely well in AAA.  Miley can't throw strikes consistently and looks about how one would expect for someone whose record against the AL was what it was.  SSS and all that, but he's performing in the zone of what one should have reasonably expected.  Buck has been trick or treat for the last several years.
 
I don't see why we should not expect more from our best top tier level starting pitching prospects.  And the good news?  If they get lit up, send them back down or figure something else out.
 
To be clear, despite all appearances, my hair is not on fire.  This might be something you try in a few weeks (or even longer), if the terrible results for Buck and Miley continue. 
 
But at some point, I am at a loss as to why you would not try one or two of your best guys in the minors.
 
Now if the organization thinks they are not ready, for whatever reason, that's another matter.  And maybe the answer is to try Wright first.
 
But rolling out this dreck time after time as if the only other answer is to placate Nick Cafardo (and trade for Hamels) is wrong headed.  Einstein's definition of insanity and all that....

 

[TomRicardo]

Leon has had to pretty much learn about the entire pitching staff on the fly. Hanigan had all of spring training to work with them, but hardly a significant track record. Plus all these new starters, and little institutional knowledge or feel for what works, versus what doesn't work for them.
 
Not sure why we ought to think Swihart would be a huge improvement, from a pitch calling perspective. If anything, blame should go to the GM for shaking things up too much, over the course of one offseason+.
 
Edit: maybe the starting roster does intrinsically suck, and the Sox (and most of SoSH) underestimated how poorly they would perform. But I think there may be some interaction effects related to the fact that so much of the starting pitching is comprised of new players, and that the entire catching roster is, too. Vasquez may have helped mitigate these effects, but nothing we can do about that now.

 
 
This would a historic level of suck that would not only impact prediction models to come but really change the way we see xFIP and fWAR in terms of pitching.  We literally have to throw it all out because the 2015 Red Sox just destroyed the goddamn model.
 
Is there any team in the last ten years of baseball that had five starters so underperform their peripherals?  If you can find me a team with their five top starters all under performing their FIP by a run and on average of run and a half?  
 
Either:
 
1) Things will level out
2) Something besides the pitchers is seriously wrong
3) These concepts are not as helpful as we thought
 
I cannot think of a team that has been so unlucky on hitting and pitching side as the Red Sox have been this month.

 

[koufax37]

The five guys pitching poorly are better than their small sample performances, and should naturally regress to a better place.  But bad seasons do happen to pitchers for many different reasons, and we need to keep an eye on who might be a candidate to leave the rotation and who can replace him if things continue.
 
However I think that patience is needed with rotation changes, and action is needed with mechanics, approach, pitch calling, and any other contributing factors to the rotational malaise that go deeper than talent and health and sample size.  Hannigan seems like a thoughtful caller and receiver, but we need a little Varitek magic inserted to keep these guys on the tracks.
 
And for all the aggregation of robot statistics, there is definitely a psychological aspect that can be contagious and Farrell has to make sure gets nipped in the bud.  With a lot of new guys and the one veteran not exactly a model of consistency and mental toughness, I think there will be a settling in period before Porcello and Miley can just be themselves and Kelly stops trying to do too much.
 
I am definitely disappointed by this stretch, and glad we have won some games that maybe we should not have, but I don't see anything that really changes the feelings at the start of the season that we are aceless and dependent on our assortment of #3 starters to perform to their level and the offense to keep us in games. I think a single minor league promotion and move to the bullpen could make sense in another week or two if things don't get better, and a trade can happen before July, but I want to see another two turns in the rotation before any big reaction.

 

[cahlton]

From Cameron's chat yesterday.

 
Comment From Cincinnati Kid
What kind of trade package can the Reds get at the deadline for Cueto? Chapman? Any trade partners that stick out?

 

Dave Cameron: I’d package them together and shoot for the moon. If Boston doesn’t go for Hamels, that’s the first place you call.

Wouldja rather have Hamels/Papelbon or Cueto/Chapman?

 

[theapportioner]

 
 
This would a historic level of suck that would not only impact prediction models to come but really change the way we see xFIP and fWAR in terms of pitching.  We literally have to throw it all out because the 2015 Red Sox just destroyed the goddamn model.
 
Is there any team in the last ten years of baseball that had five starters so underperform their peripherals?  If you can find me a team with their five top starters all under performing their FIP by a run and on average of run and a half?  
 
Either:
 
1) Things will level out
2) Something besides the pitchers is seriously wrong
3) These concepts are not as helpful as we thought
 
I cannot think of a team that has been so unlucky on hitting and pitching side as the Red Sox have been this month.

 
As for throwing out the models, not necessarily -- these hypothesized interaction effects (or effect modification) may only present themselves in situations where there is high pitching and catching turnover. My impression is that what the Sox management did in the last year is a pretty rare occurrence although I have no data to back this up. In situations where there is normal roster turnover, the models could still be adequate.
 
That said, if the hypothesis is true, then I'd think that with greater familiarity, the pitching results should normalize towards the expected results. That's assuming that they don't become mental or physical trainwrecks from the experience, though.

 

[glennhoffmania]

From Cameron's chat yesterday.
Wouldja rather have Hamels/Papelbon or Cueto/Chapman?

 
And then have to sign Cueto to an extension at market prices?  If he's only a half season rental the cost in prospects would need to reflect that compared to the ask for Hamels who has a relatively reasonable contract.

 

[cahlton]

 
And then have to sign Cueto to an extension at market prices?  If he's only a half season rental the cost in prospects would need to reflect that compared to the ask for Hamels who has a relatively reasonable contract.

...and Chapman will be in his last arb year. We're hearing that Margot+Devers+Owens/Johnson+ is what a Hamels deal would take. What would CIN require for Cueto/Chapman, given that the Red Sox would (presumably) also have to sign both players to long-term, big-money deals?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't think so.  Both have been pitching extremely well in AAA.  Miley can't throw strikes consistently and looks about how one would expect for someone whose record against the AL was what it was.  SSS and all that, but he's performing in the zone of what one should have reasonably expected.  Buck has been trick or treat for the last several years.

 
Wait, are you saying that Miley's performance thus far could have been reasonably expected?  I'll give you trick or treat Buchholz, but Miley is better than he's shown thus far.  You don't put together three straight ~200 inning seasons with a below league average ERA (NL vs AL, pitcher's parks vs hitter's parks be damned) if what he's done so far is what is "reasonably expected" out of him.
 
And my point about Johnson and Rodriguez is that dominating AAA lineups over 3-4 starts is impressive, but doesn't necessarily translate into being league average MLB starters from the jump.  Not saying they can't do that, just that I'd bank on the guys with MLB track records of being league average or better to be able to be league average or better from here on out more so than I would bank on two unproven, untested kids doing so.
 
My point of view on that will probably change if 4-6 weeks from now we're sitting here watching the same shit out of all five guys.  Until that point though, I see nothing wrong with having a bit more patience.

 

[Doctor G]

Why do you think EdRod is a better starting option than Buchholz?
 
Honestly what do you think sending Buchholz to the pen does?  
 18
QUICK DO SOMETHING BECAUSE THINGS!11!!1!!

Rodriquez has walked one batterin 18 innings and is throwing mid nineties.Buchholz might be a little more aggressive out of the pen.

 

[Toe Nash]

Miley can't throw strikes consistently and looks about how one would expect for someone whose record against the AL was what it was.  SSS and all that, but he's performing in the zone of what one should have reasonably expected.  
 

Before this year Miley had a 4.44 ERA in 71 IP vs. the AL (12 GS). This was basically due to two bad starts vs. KC and one vs. Cleveland. He pitched well against everyone else. So...I'm not sure how you could draw this conclusion.

 

[chrisfont9]

Porcello is giving up HR at extremely alarming rate for GB pitcher.  I am not sure what to say when you have a starter with 20.7% HR/FB over four games.

BRef has it at 15.4% for this season, and that's after five consecutive seasons of it being half that (6.2% - 8%). So in the case of this one stat, I think we need more time before jumping to conclusions. Obviously though, it's been a problem so far.

 

[Otis Foster]

From Cameron's chat yesterday.
Wouldja rather have Hamels/Papelbon or Cueto/Chapman?

 
Cueto says he idolizes Pedro and models himself on him. Chapman is the instant answer to Uehara's decline.
 
That package would cost. Big time. Start with Mookie or Swihart, add Owens or Johnson, Margot or Devers, maybe another piece. That really torches the farm..
 
Cueto's agent, Bryce Dixon, is just about Cueto's age. There have to be other heavy hitters in his agency.

 

[cahlton]

 
Cueto says he idolizes Pedro and models himself on him. Chapman is the instant answer to Uehara's decline.
 
That package would cost. Big time. Start with Mookie or Swihart, add Owens or Johnson, Margot or Devers, maybe another piece. That really torches the farm..
 
Cueto's agent, Bryce Dixon, is just about Cueto's age. There have to be other heavy hitters in his agency.

 
Possibly a dumb question, but why would it be so much more expensive to acquire 1-1/2 seasons combined of Cueto and Chapman (plus, one assumes, their extensions at market rates) versus 5-1/2 seasons combined of Hamels (on a somewhat below-market contract) and Papelbon (on an expensive contract)? Maybe the answer's obvious--Cueto and Chapman are significantly better than Hamels and Papelbon--but shouldn't the asymmetry in the contracts be accounted for in the cost of acquisition?

 

[grimshaw]

I dunno about needing to empty the farm for Cueto.  I mean if he's a deadline deal half a season before hitting free agency, and all the Sox got for Lester was 1.5 years of Cespedes, how much more would that cost for Cueto?   Cueto is (maybe) the next tier up from Lester, but not 2 premium prospects for 65-70 games.  Teams may pay that - but hopefully not the Red Sox.
 
And Chapman may break the arbitration record for relievers.  It would be hard for me to imagine the Red Sox putting a bib on for him.
 
Side note:  It's funny to see many of the trade targets we wanted have struggled.  Fister, Ross and Zimmerman have been mediocre/bad.  Shark has been abysmal (6 runs in the first vs. the O's today too).

 

[Otis Foster]

 
Possibly a dumb question, but why would it be so much more expensive to acquire 1-1/2 seasons combined of Cueto and Chapman (plus, one assumes, their extensions at market rates) versus 5-1/2 seasons combined of Hamels (on a somewhat below-market contract) and Papelbon (on an expensive contract)? Maybe the answer's obvious--Cueto and Chapman are significantly better than Hamels and Papelbon--but shouldn't the asymmetry in the contracts be accounted for in the cost of acquisition?

 
I'm not sure I said that cahlton. The original question is which package I'd prefer. I answered that it was Cueto/Chapman.
 
Chapman is 26/27, with his best years ahead. Cueto is a touch under 30, still looks to be in his prime and has a strong record. So for that matter does Hamels, but he's 31/32, front office thinking seems to be that there's significant risk as you get 3 or more years into a longer term contract at that age. Cueto has a couple of years advantage from that perspective.
 
Papelbon at this point isn't what he used to be, and I'm concerned that if he's brought back and then booed because he under-performs, his evil twin will reemerge and we'll have clubhouse problems.

 

[soxhop411]

@jtomase: John Farrell tells WEEI's Dale and Holley, "The book is out on us," as a pitching staff. Need to work inside more. Hitters too comfortable.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
 
This would a historic level of suck that would not only impact prediction models to come but really change the way we see xFIP and fWAR in terms of pitching.  We literally have to throw it all out because the 2015 Red Sox just destroyed the goddamn model.
 
Is there any team in the last ten years of baseball that had five starters so underperform their peripherals?  If you can find me a team with their five top starters all under performing their FIP by a run and on average of run and a half?  
 
Either:
 
1) Things will level out
2) Something besides the pitchers is seriously wrong
3) These concepts are not as helpful as we thought
 
I cannot think of a team that has been so unlucky on hitting and pitching side as the Red Sox have been this month.

 
Or somehow the RA stays stable and the xFIP/FIP catches up with them. In other words, for example, Porcello's HR/FB % is totally insane. It's not going to stay that way forever. But there are two ways it can normalize - his HR rate can decrease or his overall FB rate can increase. Same with all the other peripheral stats. I think the null is that xFIP/FIP are better early predictors of full season performance, but it's certainly possible that it's a SSS problem on the side of the peripherals rather than the observed performance.

 

[chrisfont9]

@jtomase: John Farrell tells WEEI's Dale and Holley, "The book is out on us," as a pitching staff. Need to work inside more. Hitters too comfortable.

Can you imagine Belichick ever saying anything resembling the football version of this?

 

[Harry Hooper]

@jtomase: John Farrell tells WEEI's Dale and Holley, "The book is out on us," as a pitching staff. Need to work inside more. Hitters too comfortable.

 
 
Amen, mentioned regarding Clay in the game thread last night.

 

[TomRicardo]

@jtomase: John Farrell tells WEEI's Dale and Holley, "The book is out on us," as a pitching staff. Need to work inside more. Hitters too comfortable.

 
Which leads again to poor pitch calling and game planning.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Is there any possibility that the opposition being too comfortable at-bat against the Sox is caused by a sort of reverse knuckleballer effect, that having five groundball pitchers on the same staff would make scouting and hitters' adjustments during a series easier?

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Your plan sucks and is full of holes (much like our bullpen right now but I digress).
 
There is no quick fix.  The Red Sox did their best (Lester's 6.23 ERA would look real sweet right now at the top of our rotation).  They built a rotation and it has been awfully unlucky as has the line up.  I am not sure Hanigan is a guy that you want calling most of your games (Sandy Leon calls an awful game, I am not sure how long he will last as place holder for Swihart).  
 
You aren't going to just trade Buchholz.  There is absolutely no value in that.  It is an idiot move made in a panic.  
 
Nothing tells me Johnson and Rodriguez won't just get lit up the way the team is playing.  
 
The biggest move could be dumping Sandy Leon for Swihart.  

 
I don't consider this to be a very robust rebuttal to my idea.  
 
1.  Trading Buchholz is hardly a "panic" move.  All through his major league career he's shown ability and flashes of success, but he's also gotten absolutely torched for huge stretches of time.  Over the 2014 and 2015 seasons his numbers are downright horrendous.  It's simply a realization that you don't want to live with his inconsistency in the hopes that his talent wins out.  As bad as he's been the past two years, getting Garza or Haren absolutely would be a serious upgrade.
 
2.  Johnson and Rodriguez sure might get lit up.  But "the way the team is playing" is not exactly evidence of that.  How does "how the team is playing" factor in whether or not Johnson or Rodriguez pitch well?  Show your work.
 
3.  Maybe Leon for Swihart is a good move.  Sure.  And burn a year of service time, yeah.  I'm not necessarily NOT for that, but it requires very serious consideration before you pull the trigger on that.
 
PS - The offense hasn't been unlucky.  Their peripherals suggest a mediocre offensive performance and yet they're 2nd in runs scored, thanks to all those unearned runs.  To the contrary, the offense has been extremely lucky so far.

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
Wait, are you saying that Miley's performance thus far could have been reasonably expected?  I'll give you trick or treat Buchholz, but Miley is better than he's shown thus far.  You don't put together three straight ~200 inning seasons with a below league average ERA (NL vs AL, pitcher's parks vs hitter's parks be damned) if what he's done so far is what is "reasonably expected" out of him.
 
And my point about Johnson and Rodriguez is that dominating AAA lineups over 3-4 starts is impressive, but doesn't necessarily translate into being league average MLB starters from the jump.  Not saying they can't do that, just that I'd bank on the guys with MLB track records of being league average or better to be able to be league average or better from here on out more so than I would bank on two unproven, untested kids doing so.
 
My point of view on that will probably change if 4-6 weeks from now we're sitting here watching the same shit out of all five guys.  Until that point though, I see nothing wrong with having a bit more patience.

I am probably guilty of being too harsh regarding Miley.  My eyes see a bag of fecal out there and I am reacting to that and what I thought were worse numbers against the AL that Toe Nash cited (my mistake).
 
I tend to think that waiting 4-6 weeks could put them in a very deep hole.
 
Either way, it's not all or nothing.  They don't have to pull the plug on both of them.  In fact, they don't have to pull the plug on either of them.  Why not promote one of the kids, insert him for a spot start and make an assessment that would include the results of same?
 
PS: Ivanvamp, I asked TRic the same question about the "how the team is playing" line.  I suspect that there is no work to show.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
I don't consider this to be a very robust rebuttal to my idea.  
 
1.  Trading Buchholz is hardly a "panic" move.  All through his major league career he's shown ability and flashes of success, but he's also gotten absolutely torched for huge stretches of time.  Over the 2014 and 2015 seasons his numbers are downright horrendous.  It's simply a realization that you don't want to live with his inconsistency in the hopes that his talent wins out.  As bad as he's been the past two years, getting Garza or Haren absolutely would be a serious upgrade.
 
2.  Johnson and Rodriguez sure might get lit up.  But "the way the team is playing" is not exactly evidence of that.  How does "how the team is playing" factor in whether or not Johnson or Rodriguez pitch well?  Show your work.
 
3.  Maybe Leon for Swihart is a good move.  Sure.  And burn a year of service time, yeah.  I'm not necessarily NOT for that, but it requires very serious consideration before you pull the trigger on that.
 
PS - The offense hasn't been unlucky.  Their peripherals suggest a mediocre offensive performance and yet they're 2nd in runs scored, thanks to all those unearned runs.  To the contrary, the offense has been extremely lucky so far.

 
 
The Red Sox have .269 BABIP with 21% LD% as a team.  The offense has been unlucky.  They should as a team be hitting about 60 points higher in average.
 
1. What does trading him accomplish?  I doubt you are going to get anything for him at.  Basically you are saying we should waive Buchholz our most valuable pitcher at the moment.  Maybe we should waive the whole rotation!  We can have Pawtucket's rotation!
 
2. You mean how our rotation's FIP is a run and half under their actual ERA?  Or did you miss that point as it was belabored upon you over and over again.  Every single pitcher in our rotation is not performing close to what they should be.  So now you say we should bring up pitchers both of who have 4.33 mle projected ERA (basically around 4.30 FIP).  That would be a step up from Porcello and possibly Wade Miley provided they had no transitional hiccups.  Not Buchholz, Masterson, or Kelly.
 
3. You wouldn't burn a year of service time this far in the season nice try though

 

[TomRicardo]

I am probably guilty of being too harsh regarding Miley.  My eyes see a bag of fecal out there and I am reacting to that and what I thought were worse numbers against the AL that Toe Nash cited (my mistake).
 
I tend to think that waiting 4-6 weeks could put them in a very deep hole.
 
Either way, it's not all or nothing.  They don't have to pull the plug on both of them.  In fact, they don't have to pull the plug on either of them.  Why not promote one of the kids, insert him for a spot start and make an assessment that would include the results of same?
 
PS: Ivanvamp, I asked TRic the same question about the "how the team is playing" line.  I suspect that there is no work to show.

 
Forgetting the fact you cannot send Wade Miley down without his permission, the "harm" of giving the kids a few starts is that they get lit up which lowers their trade value and also can lower their confidence.  
 
Anyway Porcello is the team's biggest problem not Miley or Buchholz. 

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
Forgetting the fact you cannot send Wade Miley down without his permission, the "harm" of giving the kids a few starts is that they get lit up which lowers their trade value and also can lower their confidence.  
 
Anyway Porcello is the team's biggest problem not Miley or Buchholz. 

The options regarding Miley also include using him out of the pen.
 
You are correct that bringing guys up who aren't ready risks blowing their confidence and trade value, but that's true regarding every guy who is promoted from AAA.  I'm not clear on why these two players need to be treated with extraordinary kid gloves in this regard, and the need for either or both of them seems acute.
 
And whether Porcello is the biggest problem, given the dollars/years, he is not a problem they can do anything about as a practical matter.

 

[grimshaw]

It's not like Brian Johnson is a kid either.  He's in his age 24 season and has shown command of all his pitches.  His floor and ceiling have a much smaller gap than the 2 blue chippers.  I can see Owens and Rodriguez needing more starts, but they are in the highest level of the minors and pretty much ready to go when the next injury hits,  They wouldn't be there otherwise.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I don't think you can sit here and point to any single one of the five starters and call him "the problem." They've all been pretty bad at times.