Can The Red Sox Survive Their Starting Rotation?

[Drek717]

My take on the current rotation is as follows:
 
Buchholz - Looking far better than he did at any point last year.  One bat instance against the Yankees aside, I have to believe that if this is what he looks like early he's only going to improve from here assuming he stays healthy.  In that case he's a legitimate front line starter.
 
Porcello - Victim of an insanely bad bit of HR/FB luck that I expect to normalize.  Best K/9 of his career so far, but the BB/9 is up too.  Maybe nibbling a bit too much for those K's and as a result isn't pounding the low zone like he should.  His GB% is down too, could also be stemming from this.  The tools are there, his BABIP isn't freakish, he's just been terrifically unlucky on the long ball and has maybe gotten away from his game a bit too much in the wake of a big contract looking to be that strikeout guy.  His LOB% is also well below career norms and league average.  If both of those normalize he's a mid-3's ERA guy like we thought, simple as that.  Solid #2.  If they normalize, he fixes the BB/9, but keeps the K/9 he might just move into the borderline #1/#2 category by end of season.  Worst case I'm expecting a high 3's ERA/solid #3 guy production.
 
Masterson - Had more good starts than the rest of the group other than Clay so far, but it really seems like he's doing it with pretty meh stuff.  His HR/9 and HR/FB% are low, but then he's always been on the lower end and managed comparable rates for over 200 innings in 2011.  If he can reduce the walks and his LOB% gets back to normal he could definitely still be a solid mid to back of the rotation starter.  His velocity has ticked up in the last two starts per Pitchf/x as well, a continuation of that as he works back from the likely physical ailments of last year and in warmer weather could see some marked improvements.
 
Miley - Jekyll and Hyde act.  Great start, horrible start, solid start, horrible start.  Against the Yankees he looked like an ace.  Against Washington he was throwing meatballs.  Against Tampa a little walk happy and inconsistent but getting guys out and was effective into the sixth inning of a pitching battle.  Then against Baltimore he blows up again.  His career game logs suggest that he's a bit prone to outings like this, but not on an 'every other' ratio (he had three comparable stinkers in May of 2013 for example).  I'd like to think that Farrell and Nieves can develop consistency from him, but if not it'll be hold on to your butts time every start.
 
Kelly - Most impressive starter so far to me.  Has taken a clear step forward as a pitcher from last season.  Electric stuff, still learning to command it.  If Buchholz and Porcello settle into the steady front end guys making Kelly the #3 guy who needs help avoiding the occasional crooked number I would be quite happy with that.  I have more patience for Kelly's struggles than any of the rest because he's at least shown real growth in many aspects of his game, he's just still struggling to keep everything in sync to avoid those bad innings.
 
It's only four starts but I'm cautiously optimistic that all of these guys have shown plenty to build on.  You take the bad luck out of the equation and they obviously look much better as a group.  I'm left with the concern that the bad luck isn't entirely "luck" though and that those low LOB% numbers stem from a real lack of middle relief hanging these guys out to dry when they do stumble in the 5th/6th/7th innings.  Ogando looks like he's finding himself but the rest of that middle lot leaves me pretty worried and I'm not very confident that Koji is going to be 2013-2014 Koji this year.  Really hoping that Barnes really nails down a bullpen spot real soon, hopefully at the expense of Mujica who is consistent in that he looks good enough between his blown saves to trick you into giving him another chance to blow a save, only to watch him blow it again.
 
If he offense heats up into the summer I think this staff will find stability to the point where they can win a lot of games with 5-7 runs scored and 3-5 runs given up.  So I think they'll be real competitive.  I don't think they'll survive this current rotation come playoff hunt time or into the playoffs unless a couple of these guys find real consistency.  Even then I'm unsure if the ceilings of a lot of these guys is enough to go toe to toe with front line opposition in the playoffs.  Buchholz and Kelly on their best days sure can, but they would need to be the two who find consistency for that.
 
In short, do they need a front line starter/ace on this staff?  Not to compete for the division and make the playoffs, no.  To win a World Series?  I think they do.  He might be on the team currently, waiting to pull open the shirt and reveal that big red 'S' on his chest, but if so he needs to find a phone booth and show up any time now.

 

[nvalvo]

Now that we've won 3 "world series" in a decade, what I want is to be playing meaningful games through the end of September every year, and then the post-season tournament championships will fall as they may. I'd rather be the 1990s Braves than the 1996-2005 Marlins.

Rodriguez and Barnes will be rookies. For every John Lackey and Calvin Shiraldi rookie season, there's a Ruby De La Rosa and Ken Ryan.

 
I don't often agree with Plympton, but this is wisdom right here. 

 

[Rice4HOF]

On the ESPN team stats today (4/27), the Red Sox have the 2nd worst ERA in baseball. Baltimore is worst. I can't figure out a way to just look at starters only.  I want to say small sample size so I will.   This has been my fear since the start of the season.

I like to use Fangraphs. Easy to split starters vs relievers etc. This shows our starters are 6th in AL in xFIP. Really unlucky BABIP and LOB%. Once these regress to mean, actual ERA should come down. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

 

[ivanvamp]

I like to use Fangraphs. Easy to split starters vs relievers etc. This shows our starters are 6th in AL in xFIP. Really unlucky BABIP and LOB%. Once these regress to mean, actual ERA should come down. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

 
As we saw with the Wade Miley pitch FX graph, I don't think it's bad luck that's killing the Sox' starting pitching.  I think it's throwing way too many middle-middle meatballs which are, predictably, getting crushed.  That's not unlucky.  Major league hitters are supposed to crush middle-middle meatballs.  And guess what?  They are.
 
If they were ripping 98 mph fastballs on the black that's one thing.  This is something else entirely.  The Sox' starters are getting hit hard because they're not pitching well.  Hopefully that changes.

 

[Rustjive]

As we saw with the Wade Miley pitch FX graph, I don't think it's bad luck that's killing the Sox' starting pitching.  I think it's throwing way too many middle-middle meatballs which are, predictably, getting crushed.  That's not unlucky.  Major league hitters are supposed to crush middle-middle meatballs.  And guess what?  They are.
 
If they were ripping 98 mph fastballs on the black that's one thing.  This is something else entirely.  The Sox' starters are getting hit hard because they're not pitching well.  Hopefully that changes.

That's the case with Miley's start, which was probably the worst start of the season for any starter on the Sox, but if you look at Porcello's (with his crazy 20.7% HR/FB ratio and his dismal 62.9% LOB%) graphs, they're not like that:

4/8 vs. PHI:

4/13 vs. WSH:

4/19 vs. BAL:

4/24 vs. BAL:

There's one, maybe two HR there that could be classified middle-middle.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Even supposing that is more representative of their true talent level, is it good enough? In particular, is it good enough given the synergy between the starting rotation and the bullpen? A weak starting staff is more likely to expose a weak bullpen, and vice versa. This is just a bad pitching staff, worse if Uehara keeps throwing 85 mph fastballs and Miley is exposed as a creature of the NL West ballpark factor.

At risk of repeating myself, it seems crazy to gamble what is statistically likely to be the best year of the Sandoval/Ramirez contracts on this pitching staff.

 
FWIW this isn't a valid argument. The NL West has two extreme hitter's parks (ARI, COL), one neutralish park (LAD), and two extreme pitcher's parks (SD, SFG). Chase Field, where Miley pitched his home games, is 9th in baseball in park factor (higher = more runs) at 112 (100 is neutral). For comparison's sake, Fenway is 10th (105), and Toronto's Rogers Centre is 8th (113). 
 
The AL East has a bunch of hitter's parks (NYY, BAL, TOR, BOS) and one pitcher's park (TB), but Fenway is actually a better environment for pitchers than Chase Field (ARI). A cursory look at the 2014 Dbacks suggests they were a below average defensive team, as well.

 

[Pilgrim]

"Luck" is always the worst way to look at this.

Pointing out a pitcher is giving up a 400 BABIP, or 1/5 of their fly balls are home runs, doesn't mean something undeserving happened to them. It means that they are getting results that are not sustainable, and something will change given enough of a sample size.

It's possible to imagine a pitcher who throws so many terrible pitches that 1 out of 5 of the fly balls they induce is a homerun. But such a pitcher would be a terrible across the board, and given enough time, the rest of their rate stats would conform to this in a way where their entire pitching profile makes sense.

It's hard to say if the Red Sox pitchers are any good, but right now a bunch of them are putting up numbers that don't make sense given what we understand about pitching.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Heyman's latest on the Cole Hamels situation.
 

1. Red Sox. The offensively-strong Red Sox, which look like they could use an ace, hasn't refused to relinquish either of the exciting Betts or Swihart, a switch hitter with power, which has apparently halted talks. They won't, either, according to a person with Red Sox connections, and the Phillies continue to say the package has to start with one of those two players. The Red Sox have other prospects, leading with pitchers Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez, outfielder Manny Margot (another player the Phillies are said to have asked about) and outfielder/third baseman Garin Cecchini. If they can't get Swihart or Betts, one rival exec said, “There are ten good players in Boston's system, they should just pick any (other) two or three.”
 

After going over the possibilities team by team, it seems the Phillies are shooting to start any package with a top-20 prospect, at least. The question now is: Will anyone give in?
“The Dodgers won't be blink,” one person familiar with their thinking predicted.
Some believe the Phillies are still holding out hope for Boston, which has money, prospects galore, an extremely strong everyday team and the need for a No. 1 or even 2 starting pitcher.
“The Red Sox won't blink, either,” the person said.
 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25166552/many-teams-need-hamels-so-what-the-heck-is-he-still-doing-in-philly

 

[soxhop411]

Keep dreaming PHI

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

In all the ink that is spilled about the struggles of all the members of the starting rotation, at what point, does the pitching coach get blamed?   Each member of the starting rotation is struggling.  What if, anything, is the pitching coach doing?

 

[In my lifetime]

The dumbest line in the broadcast tonight:
The Blue Jays are playing the infield in during the 2nd inning to cut down a run at the plate, because Bucholz is pitching.  
Yea, right. A 1 run lead in the 2nd against Buchholz is certainly insurmountable.

 

[ivanvamp]

Honestly, if the Red Sox got 7 ip, 4 runs every game from their starters, I'd be thrilled at this point.  By the way, that's a 5.14 era.  Which, by the way, would represent an improvement of nearly a full run compared to their starters' era following Clay's wonderful performance tonight (6.03).  

 

[RedOctober3829]

They can't survive with this starting rotation. It's not an overreaction to post this right now. We've had enough of a sample to know that that this can't continue and hope to be a good baseball team. Something has to be done to shake this staff up.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Clay Buchholz:
1: 7 IP, 0 runs
2: 3.1 IP, 10 runs
3: 6 IP, 2 runs
4: 6 IP, 1 run
5: 2.2 IP, 5 runs
 
Rick Porcello:
1: 6 IP, 3 runs
2: 8 IP, 4 runs
3: 5 IP, 8 runs
4: 6 IP, 4 runs
 
Justin Masterson:
1: 6 IP, 2 runs
2: 4.2 IP, 7 runs
3: 5 IP, 1 run
4: 7 IP, 3 runs
 
Wade Miley:
1: 5.1 IP, 2 runs
2: 2.1 IP, 7 runs
3: 5.2 IP, 0 runs
4: 2.1 IP, 7 runs
 
Joe Kelly:
1: 7 IP, 1 run
2: 5.2 IP, 2 runs
3: 5 IP, 5 runs
4: 6 IP, 5 runs
 
Assuming tonight's game goes 9 innings, Sox starting pitchers have pitched about 58% of the team's innings. Including Buchholz's start tonight, Sox pitchers are averaging exactly 5.1 IP per start.
 
Definitely not survivable.
 
Edit: Amazing how Jekyll and Hyde this staff has been, the green starts - even if many are unimpressive, I'd qualify those as "good enough" to give this offense a chance to win on any given night. Most of the red ones though, not so much.

 

[Montana Fan]

RO3829, playing in such a mediocre division don't you think they can wait until they're 10 times through the rotation to see who needs replacing the most?

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

5.1 is one out per game below league average. It's not the mean that's killing this team it's the variance.

 

[Plympton91]

No. The answer to the question in the thread title, is, no.

And the bullpen is worse.

 

[Harry Hooper]

If Clay is your staff leader, then you're in a world of hurt.

 

[mikeford]

Someone can doublecheck my math but Sox starters have a cumulative 6.03 ERA now on the season.
 
Total staff ERA is 5.00 according to Fangraphs, 2nd worse in the entire MLB. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

RO3829, playing in such a mediocre division don't you think they can wait until they're 10 times through the rotation to see who needs replacing the most?

They can, they should, and they will.   They, obviously, aren't going to replace all 5, and it's not clear who are the couple least likely to improve.  And there are very few, if any, good options right now in AAA.

 

[dcmissle]

So much for the whole "load up on offense because it's so scarce, anyone can pitch" theory.

Championships have never been won in this sport that way, and I doubt they ever will. We know how teams like this shake out. The last 50 years of RS history provide ample examples. Even if no one in this division manages to get its act together, we'll eventually run up against a well balanced club and get killed.

That said, I see no path other improvement from within, certainly at this early date. We are not staring down Amaro. That was always a pipe dream and now a preposterous one -- and no, I would not pay his asking price. I just hope we have not made the long run worse with the Porcello contract.

 

[RedOctober3829]

RO3829, playing in such a mediocre division don't you think they can wait until they're 10 times through the rotation to see who needs replacing the most?

There isn't much choice MF. Too early to make a trade and options at AAA are lateral moves at best unfortunately. This staff just has no ability to minimize damage and implodes at any sign of trouble. The two worst culprits are Miley and Buchholz.

 

[ShaneTrot]

They can, they should, and they will.   They, obviously, aren't going to replace all 5, and it's not clear who are the couple least likely to improve.  And there are very few, if any, good options right now in AAA.

I am sorry but if you don't think Brian Johnson (21 innings pitched with 24 Ks and a 0.86 ERA) or Eduardo Rodriguez (18 IP with 1 BB and 16Ks and a 1.93 ERA) are good AAA options, what would satisfy you? If this keeps up, one of these starters needs to go to the pen and one of these kids needs to come up.

 

[Kull]

<snip>
 
Assuming tonight's game goes 9 innings, Sox starting pitchers have pitched about 58% of the team's innings. Including Buchholz's start tonight, Sox pitchers are averaging exactly 5.1 IP per start.
 
Definitely not survivable.
 
Edit: Amazing how Jekyll and Hyde this staff has been, the green starts - even if many are unimpressive, I'd qualify those as "good enough" to give this offense a chance to win on any given night. Most of the red ones though, not so much.

 
Nice list, thanks. In 11 of 21 starts, the starters couldn't even make it to 6 innings (only 4 of 21 have gone 7 or more). The bullpen will be annihilated at this pace.
 
Edit: And really, that's the crux of the problem. The "Plan" wasn't so much "market efficiency sinkerballers" as it was "innings eaters". Which is not happening.

 

[Plympton91]

I am sorry but if you don't think Brian Johnson (21 innings pitched with 24 Ks and a 0.86 ERA) or Eduardo Rodriguez (18 IP with 1 BB and 16Ks and a 1.93 ERA) are good AAA options, what would satisfy you? If this keeps up, one of these starters needs to go to the pen and one of these kids needs to come up.

One of them with about 8 times more innings at AAA under their belt would be a much better option.

To me. The simplest way to improve the starting staff is to improve the pen. Barnes needs to be here in place of Varvaro or Mujica, and last I checked Rafael Soriano is still unsigned.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Just looking at last years vs this years ERA vs career ERA
 
career/2014/2015 ERA
Buchholz 3.95/5.34/5.76
Porcello 4.35/3.43/6.48
Kelly 3.51/3.94/4.20
Miley 3.91/4.34/8.62
Masterson 4.26/5.88/5.16
 
I think a reasonable conclusion might be to expect positive regression from Porcello and Miley, but that Masterson, Kelly and Buchholz might be pitching at their current talent level.  In Kelly's case thats not awful.
 
In MIley and Porcellos case though they are coming over from weaker hitting divisions so their numbers once stablized might not match up with their career/2014 numbers.    Neither one is likely to put up a better ERA than league average. 
 
If I were Ben and JWH, I would start looking at replacements for Masterson and Buchholz, and consider blinking pretty hard on Hamels and perhaps Papelbon and Harang.   Masterson of course was the biggest wild card, and least costly to cut bait with (or moved to the pen) so he should probably be dealt with first.
 
The BP is not so great either, but these short starts are going to make it much worse before too long.
 
Its not a strong division so they might not have to act urgently, but one prolonged slump by the offense or an implosion in the bullpen as a result of overwork and things can get away pretty quick.  The price will also go up on replacement SP'ers the further things get out of hand.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I am sorry but if you don't think Brian Johnson (21 innings pitched with 24 Ks and a 0.86 ERA) or Eduardo Rodriguez (18 IP with 1 BB and 16Ks and a 1.93 ERA) are good AAA options, what would satisfy you? If this keeps up, one of these starters needs to go to the pen and one of these kids needs to come up.

I said right now.  These guys need more time at AAA, especially a potentially special talent like Rodriguez.

 

[jimbobim]

Can't say I'm sad about missing terrible Clay tonight. Perhaps a silver lining.  He's awful. No longer good for anything. Need a long man or two or three..
 
 
Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  3m3 minutes ago
Got the impression post-game the #RedSox were contemplating roster moves. Not just a bullpen shuffle. Mujica could be out of chances.
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Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  2m2 minutes ago
Over the weekend, @Sean_McAdam reported Mujica was in danger. After tonight, not hard to imagine. Farrell was ticked at the balks

 

[reggiecleveland]

Assuming tonight's game goes 9 innings, Sox starting pitchers have pitched about 58% of the team's innings. Including Buchholz's start tonight, Sox pitchers are averaging exactly 5.1 IP per start.
 
Definitely not survivable.
 
Edit: Amazing how Jekyll and Hyde this staff has been, the green starts - even if many are unimpressive, I'd qualify those as "good enough" to give this offense a chance to win on any given night. Most of the red ones though, not so much.

 
I will echo the thanks.
 
What stands out to me is the that they have given up 7 runs or more 5 times already. It is one thing when guys run up the pitch count are done giving up 4 runs in 5 innings. Those are tough to win. But when guys get fucking shelled like that it is scary.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

SSS and all but please call the Phillies about Hamels. Can't take this anymore!

I would gladly take Papelbon too. Have an open pen spot open when Mujica gets dumped this afternoon.

 

[Toe Nash]

One of them with about 8 times more innings at AAA under their belt would be a much better option.

To me. The simplest way to improve the starting staff is to improve the pen. Barnes needs to be here in place of Varvaro or Mujica, and last I checked Rafael Soriano is still unsigned.

Lots of pitchers have stopped at AAA only briefly and been fine. I think insisting on a certain amount of innings there is foolhardy. It also doesn't preclude sending them back down at a later date.
 
Lester threw 46 before being called up in 2006, then threw 81 about average innings before being diagnosed with cancer.
Buchholz threw 38 before being called up down the stretch in 2007, then threw a no-hitter. As we know he struggled the next year but as we also know he's the most inconsistent pitcher in history.
Lincecum threw 31 innings.
Yordano Ventura threw 77.
Carlos Rodon threw 22, though the jury is out on him thus far.
 
It's an individual judgment about whether a player is ready or not, but at a certain point you're just wasting bullets. Also, I don't think there's much material difference between AA and AAA, and Johnson had 118 innings at AA. I'd be comfortable bringing either up after 3-5 more AAA starts if they continue to show dominance.

 

[ivanvamp]

Looking around baseball, here are some other candidates to go after for the rotation (besides Hamels):
 
- Matt Garza, Mil.  Knows how to pitch in the AL, having done it successfully for years.  Currently pitching poorly (5.16 era), but has always been a solid pitcher (always has an era in the 3's).  Contract:  2015-17 at $12.5m, vesting option for 2018 at $13m.  Not a bad contract for a pretty good pitcher.  Milwaukee is awful and isn't going anywhere.  Could use some younger talent.  No doubt could be had for a lot less than Hamels.  And at 31, he isn't terribly old.
 
- Johnny Cueto, Cin.  We've been over him a million times.  In the last year of his contract.  Excellent pitcher.  But limited control (contract-wise).  Will cost a fortune to re-sign or to acquire as a free agent ($$).  
 
- Dan Haren, Mia.  34 years old, history of some back issues.  Not great last year but overall has a solid track record.  Pitching well this year so far (think Boston couldn't use his 3.38 era and 0.92 whip?).  But the Marlins are very bad.  Only signed through the end of this year at very reasonable money.  Might be an ideal guy to get to solidify the rotation at a very modest cost.
 
- Yovani Gallardo, Tex.  29 years old.  General history of being pretty solid.  Currently with a 4.05 era and 3.55 fip.  Under contract only through this year.  Texas is terrible.  Not sure he's part of their future.  
 
I think the Red Sox could easily add two of these solid veterans for less than what Amaro is hoping to get for Hamels.  Let's say you deal for Haren and Garza, trading away Buchholz (the other team hopes a change of scenery ignites the inconsistent but talented Buchholz) and some lesser prospects.  
 
Masterson then moves to the bullpen, which, if he's only throwing 1-2 innings at a time, may help his velocity.  Mujica DFA.  Barnes up.  Rodriguez or Johnson comes up.  The new-look rotation and bullpen.  Miley sent down to work out his issues.
 
Rotation:  Garza, Haren, Porcello, Kelly, Rodriguez/Johnson
Bullpen:  Varvaro, Koji, Tazawa, Masterson, Barnes, Breslow, Ogando
 
Still plenty of arms in AAA in reserve.  Rotation appears to be much improved.  Masterson hopefully is a bullpen asset.  Barnes gives you an added power arm in the pen.  Rodriguez or Johnson gives you a nice young arm to work with.  Miley is given space to work things out.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

This is Clay's 5th time through the rotation.  I think 8 times starting is when a shake-up is needed and I would then look at AAA options first (Steven Wright first, Eduardo 2nd and Brian Johnson 3rd((mostly due to 40 man roster issues))) and I would look to DFA Buchholz if all the starters on the same path after 8 starts.  His inconsistency is maddening despite the fact that I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up a Cincinnati roster and turn into a legit consistent ace.  At this point the Sox have to start looking long term at their pitching staff and I don't think Clay has a spot on it  if he can't show something more than what he's shown so far.  Masterson should be next on the chopping block- he's more movable to a BP role and could thrive there- fixing a small problem in the process.
I still wouldn't look to make a deal until the All Star Break when a variety of starters on expiring contracts could be available that wouldn't cost a top ten prospect

 

[grimshaw]

I wonder what effect not having Vazquez around could affect the pitching staff too.  At least in terms of game calling.
It certainly doesn't help when pitchers are missing Hannigan's target by 13 feet but in addition to their genuine awfulness there have to be other factors that aren't clicking.
And wtf does Nieves contribute besides jotting notes down.  There aren't many examples of guys improving under his tutelage.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I wonder what effect not having Vazquez around could affect the pitching staff too.  At least in terms of game calling.

 
Considering that 3/5 of this starting rotation hadn't ever pitched to Vazquez before February, and the other 2/5 has only thrown a total of 15 major league starts to him, and that Hanigan* is a well-regarded veteran catcher, this seems prohibitively unlikely to be a factor.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's still April and there have been suggestions that Buchholz, Masterson, and / or Miley be replaced. There seems to be no consensus who should be moved from the rotation; just that something has to be done. Guys like Garza and Gallardo are more of the same; low upside with lots of risk. The pitchers in Pawtucket are intriguing, as they always are.

I think you go a few more turns through the rotation, and of there's no change consider a change at pitching coach- it may not make a big difference but you can't change the entire staff.

Panic trades don't make much sense; this team isn't a move away from being a contender.

 
Finally a voice of reason.  Things haven't looked good for the staff for the most part but it is still only April 29.  There's nothing available for trade or purchase right now that isn't more of the same of what they already have (because the really good pitchers aren't going anywhere until June/July when there's a more robust market for their services).  The pitchers in Pawtucket look good against AAA hitters so far, but why is the expectation that they can come up immediately and be an improvement?  In time, they may be far better than what the Sox currently have, but that time isn't now.  Shiny and new isn't going to fix this team.

 

[Otis Foster]

 
 
 Mujica DFA.

 
Please. He's shown nothing in his time with the RS. 
 
You can replace him from P'tucket if you need another arm.

 

[dcmissle]

It's still April and there have been suggestions that Buchholz, Masterson, and / or Miley be replaced. There seems to be no consensus who should be moved from the rotation; just that something has to be done. Guys like Garza and Gallardo are more of the same; low upside with lots of risk. The pitchers in Pawtucket are intriguing, as they always are.

I think you go a few more turns through the rotation, and of there's no change consider a change at pitching coach- it may not make a big difference but you can't change the entire staff.

Panic trades don't make much sense; this team isn't a move away from being a contender.

+2.

Say what you want, but shopping for pitching at WalMart and protecting best prospects like a lion does her cubs were not one-off moves. They were central to a strategic vision, the consequences of which -- upside and downside -- were beaten to death in a number of offseason threads.

I don't want my team retreating from its strategic vision in a panic, even if the vision is flawed and even if it costs them a season. I certainly don't want them to make worse trades now than they could have made during the offseason because the sledding is rough. And the last thing I want them to do is rush young pitching through the system to fill holes, especially when the strategic vision includes as an essential component developing your own top tier from within because you refuse to pay dearly for it from the outside, dollar wise or via prospects.

Some times you just have to sleep in the bed you made.

 

[ivanvamp]

How are Garza or Haren *not* an improvement over Clay?  We now have had, going back to last year, a long stretch of just awful Buchholz pitching.  Hopefully he turns it around.  He certainly has the talent.  But since the start of 2014, here are their numbers:
 
Buchholz:  33 g, 5.39 era, 1.41 whip
Haren:  36 g, 3.94 era, 1.15 whip
Garza:  31 g, 3.82 era, 1.25 whip
 
I'm sorry, but those two guys represent *significant* upgrades to Buchholz.  It's not just "more of the same".  They're simply a lot better and more consistent.  

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
Finally a voice of reason.  Things haven't looked good for the staff for the most part but it is still only April 29.  There's nothing available for trade or purchase right now that isn't more of the same of what they already have (because the really good pitchers aren't going anywhere until June/July when there's a more robust market for their services).  The pitchers in Pawtucket look good against AAA hitters so far, but why is the expectation that they can come up immediately and be an improvement?  In time, they may be far better than what the Sox currently have, but that time isn't now.  Shiny and new isn't going to fix this team.

Because the ERA of the starting pitchers is in the 6s and the starters are routinely getting shelled, coughing up leads and taxing the pen,  and based on decades of experience watching these things play out, there is reason to believe that guys enjoying the success that Rodriguez and Johnson have enjoyed thus far this season in AAA will be able to pitch better than the likes of Miley and Buck.  At the very least, they might.
 
And it's not as if the success Rodriguez and Johnson are enjoying thus far was unexpected; these are pitchers whose trajectory lead us to believe that we might have something valuable in reserve in the minors.  On the flip side, while Buck has had stretches of dominance in his career, he's also had long stretches of injury, inconsistency and abject suck.  Nothing we're seeing out of him right now can be even the smallest surprise to any of us.  As to Miley, I hope I am wrong but the guy had an ERA against the AL in the 5s and has trouble throwing strikes.  That he's off to a slow start is disappointing but again not all that surprising.
 
Patience, when you have very possibly better alternatives within your own system, is overrated.
 
I could understand more preaching patience if the alternative was trading valuable pieces for expensive options like Hamels.  Not that I would be opposed to moving on him but the "don't panic, it's only April 29" mantra makes a lot more sense to me if we are talking about giving up talented prospects and absorbing salary.

 

[moondog80]

Sox ERA: 5.23 (last in MLB)
Sox xFIP: 3.85 (13th)
 
Just sayin'.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Sox ERA: 5.23 (last in MLB)
Sox xFIP: 3.85 (13th)
 
Just sayin'.

13th still isn't good. Even if that is their true talent level.

Which it likely isn't.

Just sayin'.

 

[ivanvamp]

Sox ERA: 5.23 (last in MLB)
Sox xFIP: 3.85 (13th)
 
Just sayin'.

 
So we can expect some positive regression then?  
 
Or….
 
Actual record:  11-10
Pythag:  10-11
 
So maybe they've actually been a little *lucky* in terms of winning this year?  

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
So we can expect some positive regression then?  
 
Or….
 
Actual record:  11-10
Pythag:  10-11
 
So maybe they've actually been a little *lucky* in terms of winning this year?  

Considering the amount of unearned runs they've been given so far, yes I consider them lucky to be over .500.  You can point to 2 games in the Washington series alone that unearned runs gave the Red Sox victories.

 

[johnnywayback]

One of them with about 8 times more innings at AAA under their belt would be a much better option.

To me. The simplest way to improve the starting staff is to improve the pen. Barnes needs to be here in place of Varvaro or Mujica, and last I checked Rafael Soriano is still unsigned.

 
I don't have a lot of faith in Soriano, but if we're going to give the current rotation another few spins while the AAA guys and/or trade market develop (which I think is a very reasonable idea), DFAing Mujica and bringing up Barnes makes a tremendous amount of sense, because, as a few folks have said in this thread, all these short starts run the risk of destroying the bullpen.  It would be nice to have a guy who can go a couple innings so we're not running Tazawa and Ogando out there in games the starter has already blown.
 
In the long run, though, paying to upgrade one of the rotation spots only makes sense if a couple of the other ones improve of their own volition.  A rotation with one or even two store-bought aces still won't be survivable unless a few of these guys get it together.  I don't see that we have a choice but to wait another month to see if we can make that happen.

 

[ivanvamp]

Considering the amount of unearned runs they've been given so far, yes I consider them lucky to be over .500.  You can point to 2 games in the Washington series alone that unearned runs gave the Red Sox victories.

 
I agree.  Which is fine with me.  I'm glad they've gotten a little lucky so far as they sort out their issues.  

 

[glennhoffmania]

In all the ink that is spilled about the struggles of all the members of the starting rotation, at what point, does the pitching coach get blamed?   Each member of the starting rotation is struggling.  What if, anything, is the pitching coach doing?

 
I was coming in here to post this.  I've never seen anything like this.  All five starters have a track record of being at least a decent pitcher, yet all five have been bad this year.  Do the coaches have no responsibility?
 
Also, while I've been trying to stay hopeful by looking at stats like FIP, xFIP BABIP and strand rate, when I watch the games I feel like opposing hitters are getting really good swings and making really good contact on a fairly regular basis.  So I looked at batted ball data for all five guys.  The only one who's LD% is higher than his career average is Masterson.  I was very surprised by that.  It doesn't feel like these guys are getting blooped and dribbled to death though.

 

[moondog80]

 
So we can expect some positive regression then?  
 
Or….
 
Actual record:  11-10
Pythag:  10-11
 
So maybe they've actually been a little *lucky* in terms of winning this year?  

 
 
As unlucky as the pitching has been, the hitting has been close to equally lucky.  2nd in runs scored, 13th in wOBA, 15th in wRC+.  So .500 seems right.

 

[grimshaw]

We weren't terribly accustomed to stinkers last year.  By stinkers, I mean fewer than 5 innings.  If you aren't keeping your team in the game at least sack up and get through 5.
 
Last years stinkers:
Lester had 2, but still lasted 4.1 and 4.2 respectively.
Lackey had 1 all year, and left another start with an injury.
Peavy had 1 . .
Clay had 6.  2 of those were bullpen murdering fewer than 3 innings.
Doubront had 4 out of 10 and then was moved to the pen.  They could afford to give him plenty of rope since the rest of the guys were getting it done.
Kelly had 4 stinkers last year, and none so far this year.
Masterson had 10 last year, and was moved to the pen in September.  So  . . grats us on praying he figures it out this year.  1 so far, and 1 exactly 5.
Wade Miley had 3 all year, and 1 was under 3 innings.  None of them were before late June.  He has 2 already.
Porcello had 3 last year.  All in September when rosters were expanded.
 
The Red Sox had 5 bullpen murdering starts all of last year, and have 4 already this year.
 
I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown of those from pitchers moving from the NL to the DH league.

 

[tims4wins]

13th still isn't good. Even if that is their true talent level.

Which it likely isn't.

Just sayin'.

 
13th in MLB is actually pretty good since they are an AL team. They rank 6th in the AL in xFIP. If you told me before the season they would be the 6th best pitching staff in the AL, I would have said they would definitely be a playoff team given the offense.
 
edit: source
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a