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Bullpen 2017

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by nvalvo, Feb 27, 2017.

  1. Tyrone Biggums

    Tyrone Biggums nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion SoSH Member

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    So I'm just curious as to what point Reed has on this team? He's not the 8th inning guy he's barely the 7th inning guy. Yet the team wasted assets to get him. Just like Ziegler I don't think Farrell ever wanted him and if it was up to him he would probably DFA Reed tomorrow. For whatever reason Reed is in Manager John doghouse and meanwhile he continues to use Barnes in pressure situations which on the road always ends in disaster. But he keeps sending him out there god bless him for being stubborn.
     
  2. Snodgrass'Muff

    Snodgrass'Muff oppresses WARmongers Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Aside from August 11th, Reed has been very effective. No, I'm not pulling an EV and just tossing out the bad stats to argue he's great, but it's at least possible that the August 11th appearance was a blip on the radar. I think looking at his overall season line is the best way to evaluate him at this point, and I think he's a solid enough 8th inning option.

    He has the 7th best K/BB in all of baseball (among relievers), and that's driven by his ability to not walk batters. That's pretty much what you want in the 8th inning.

    The rest of the pen behind him, however, I have very little faith in. Workman seems the best option for the 7th, but I'm still a little iffy on that given the drop in velocity over the last three appearances.
     
  3. mt8thsw9th

    mt8thsw9th anti-SoSHal SoSH Member

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    The guy who's been used in the 8th inning or later in his last five appearances isn't the 8th inning guy? Huh.
     
  4. E5 Yaz

    E5 Yaz Transcends message boarding Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Pete Abraham‏Verified account @PeteAbe 15h15 hours ago
    Addison Reed pitched 3 of the previous 5 days, which would seem to explain why he is not pitching tonight,

    ***

    Now, let's look at those three appearances:

    Sunday: A 1-2-3 eighth inning when the score was 3-1 against the Yankees. High leverage.

    Friday
    : A five-out, one walk, three strikeout appearance against the Yankees. Came into the game with one out in the seventh and the bases loaded -- struck out Judge, and got Sanchez to line to first. Worked around a walk in the eighth. High leverage.

    Wednesday:
    Worked around a two-out double in the eighth against STL, holding the score at 4-2 and helping keep the Sox in the game for their eventual comeback win. Medium leverage

    I think your premise about Farrell's usage of Reed isn't supported by facts
     
  5. Coachster

    Coachster Member SoSH Member

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    Well, there's doghouse and doghouse. We've held a bullpen seat for Fernando Abad all year, and Farrel won't use him. Just 35 appearances. By comparison, Barnes has 59, Hembree has 53 and even Robby Scott., who hasn't even been on the 25-man all year, has 47. Are we keeping Abad only because we're scared someone else will claim him if we DFA him? If we're not going to use him, it would make sense to bring up a long-man, for nights like Pom's 3+ inning outing last week, (and what's probably going to happen to Fister tonight.....)
     
  6. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    3,208
    No, they're keeping him because even a replacement-level reliever like Abad is still better than guys like Noe Ramirez and Ben Taylor.
     
  7. richgedman'sghost

    richgedman'sghost Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    As for Carson Smith, I heard Peter Abraham on during yesterday's rain delay. He basically said that Smith is not being looked upon by the Red Sox as some sort of saviour. Instead, the Red Sox will use him in low leverage situations the rest of the year with an eye towards 2018. In other words, any chance of Smith becoming the "8th inning guy" is extremely remote.

    Sent from my SM-G920V using SoSH mobile app

    Sent from my SM-G920V using SoSH mobile app
     
  8. TFisNEXT

    TFisNEXT Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'd have to imagine they think about him for 6th/7th innings though if he shows he is effective in September. Seems like his last 4 outings in AAA have gone well after shaking off the rust in his first appearance. There's isn't much to trust behind Reed...you hope you get "Good Joe Kelly" or an effective Workman, but Carson Smith could really stabilize that role if he is showing good command when he returns to the majors.
     
  9. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think they need an "8th inning guy" at this point (if 8th inning guy is meant to be the non-closer ace of the bullpen). That's what they have in Reed. Ideally Smith just gives them another arm in the mix for matching up in the 6th and 7th innings during September, preferably allowing them to rest other guys more, but there's no way they can count on him for anything more than that. He's on an every three day schedule now with no indication that they're going to increase the workload to every other day, let alone back to backs, before the minor league season is over. That doesn't make him a very good choice for the post-season bullpen in any role. Can't really afford to carry a reliever who, once he's pitches in one game, is entirely unavailable for a game or two.
     
  10. NDame616

    NDame616 will bailey SoSH Member

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    I think the "Do the Sox think they can get quality innings out of Smith?" question was answered the day they got Reed. Of course they will work him into low leverage games in September and see what he's got. Are they expecting him to be the "8th inning guy" in October? No. But if he pitches well in September there is a 100% chance he'll be on our playoff roster
     
  11. mt8thsw9th

    mt8thsw9th anti-SoSHal SoSH Member

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    Reed out of the doughouse! This will mark only his sixth time out of his last 6 appearances that he'll pitch in the 8th inning. Looks like he has a chance to finally earn FIREell's trust.
     
  12. mfried

    mfried Member SoSH Member

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    Result ok but the Encarnacion HR cast a shadow.
     
  13. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Velazquez down, Boyer back from DL.
    (and Davis added, Marrero optioned)

     
  14. phenweigh

    phenweigh Member SoSH Member

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    Did Boyer have any rehab appearances? His return flew under my radar, but good to have him back.
     
  15. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    If it's all the same to you, I'd rather have Moreland in the 'pen than Boyer.
     
  16. phenweigh

    phenweigh Member SoSH Member

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    I like that 2 bags adds depth to the pen, because eight isn't enough.
     
  17. 5dice

    5dice Member SoSH Member

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    Detailed Carson Smith (SSS grain of salt) update:
    Last 5 appearances: 5.0 IP, 2H, 1BB, 3K, 34 strikes/59 pitches--he has bumped up from every 3 days to every 2.
    He is also keeping the ball down--in his PawSox 8 game SSS, only 5 batters of 26 faced have left the infield in the air, doing what he does best--keeping the ball down.
    As mentioned upthread, maybe he won't be the playoff 8th inning guy by design, but can we hope for 7th inning/early hi-leverage that is unlikely to give up a home run/keep ball down?
     
  18. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    29,208
    Reed seems to be settling into the 8th inning slot his last couple outings
     
  19. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    Do we know where his velocity is?
     
  20. 5dice

    5dice Member SoSH Member

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    Not sure what he is doing with the gun--one report said 91--he usually sits at 92-94 as a sinkerballer.
     
  21. Buzzkill Pauley

    Buzzkill Pauley Member SoSH Member

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    It would actually be best, IMO, for Smith to become the commemorative fireman, first into the starter's dirty last inning of work, when there's one or more runners already on base.

    The pen has a lot of velocity, but not much in the way of groundball-heavy pitchers likely to induce a GIDP.
     
  22. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Another wildcard in all of this is David Price, who threw 20 fastballs off a mound today. With the rotation a strength and a month a short window to ramp up an SP, I think the team might reasonably consider Price out of the bullpen.

    A young David Price basically ended our 2008 campaign out of the Tampa Bay 'pen, so I think we all see how that could be appealing, especially if we don't think he could be at full strength in the rotation in time.

    (Then again, if we actually think he can be at something like full strength, our rotation looks *real* deep.)
     
  23. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

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    892
    From Speier: "The Red Sox announced on Thursday that Robbie Ross Jr. underwent a season-ending microdiscectomy of the lumbar spine on Wednesday. He’s expected to be ready for the 2018 season."
     
  24. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    23,832
    A step backward for Carson Smith tonight for Pawtucket--1 IP, 4 H, 3 R(2 ER), 1 BB, 0 K.

    Not yet the savior.
     
  25. grimshaw

    grimshaw the new rudy SoSH Member

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    Farrell mentioned on the pre game Smith would get two more appearances before getting called up, so presumably on the 2nd and 4th.
     
  26. nvalvo

    nvalvo Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    Perhaps a dead arm period? It seems like pitchers often go through that 3 or 4 weeks into a ramp up.
     
  27. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    I would bet the farm that no one within the Sox organization is looking at Smith as help in 2017. It is far more likely that they want him to get a couple of major league appearances in just so that he will have been on a major league mound when ST starts in 2018, rather than after almost two seasons away. Call it peace of mind for him. Or a reward for working hard to get back.
     
  28. trekfan55

    trekfan55 Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    It looks like Crason Smith's TJ surgery basically washed away two seasons. Is that normal? He had his TJ in early 2016.
     
  29. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    There's a couple of things going on. One is that we only hear the success stories. But more specifically, I think Smith had some setbacks as well (one elbow soreness, one shoulder, IIRC). He had surgery in late may 2016, and was, at least technically, began throwing in April 2017, before stopping.

    I think we take TJS for granted and get spoiled/distracted by high profile comebacks.

    Here's one list I found. I dont have time to check each player, but I'm sure that Smith's return is within a "normal" range of 12 months to never.
    https://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/
     
  30. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    1,479
    Price threw 32 pitches the other day in a simulated game (or for EdRo, a simulated inning). Expected to throw another simulated game this week. I don't think he'll be ramped up to start in the playoffs, but that actually may not be a bad things. We know his playoff record as a starter is....really really bad. SSS? I don't know why it is what it is. But as a lefty reliever, he could be a HUGE component to the playoff roster.

    Here are Price's career splits as a starter/reliever. Obviously the reliever splits are VERY small sample size, but here they are anyway:

    Starter: 1728.0 ip, 3.24 era, 1.15 whip, 8.6 k/9, .237/.289/.369/.658
    Reliever: 9.2 ip, 1.86 era, 0.62 whip, 9.3 k/9, .147/.194/.265/.459

    As a starter he would normally be throwing about 94 mph, getting it up to 96 on occasion. As a 1 or 2 inning reliever (or even a LOOGY), he could sit at 96 or 97 probably. And he's not the kind of reliever you worry about bringing in and walking guys. Guy has great control (normally).

    Rotation:
    1. Sale
    2. Pomeranz
    3. Fister
    4. Rodriguez/Porcello (depending on your preference)

    Bullpen:
    1. Rodriguez/Porcello (whoever you don't have in the rotation)
    2. Maddox
    3. Reed
    4. Scott
    5. Smith
    6. Kelly
    7. Price
    8. Kimbrel

    A bullpen with a healthy Kimbrel, Price, Kelly, Smith, and Reed is really solid, and the other pieces aren't bad either. If you keep EdRo in the bullpen, it gives you three lefties (Rodriguez, Scott, and Price) so you can play matchups. Smith is almost a ROOGY with that slider.

    Anyway, I think the singular addition of Price to the bullpen could be an enormous factor for this team in the playoffs.
     
  31. tonyarmasjr

    tonyarmasjr Member SoSH Member

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    I don't know how much consideration it should/will receive, but it makes sense to me that if there is a toss-up between which starters should start and which relieve, we have a couple guys in Pomeranz and Price who have had some notable success coming out of the bullpen. On the other hand, Pomeranz wasn't fantastic in that role last postseason. And it has been many moons since Price was money in 2008. Porcello made 6 postseason relief appearances while with the Tigers, with mixed results. Their (relative) familiarity with coming out of the pen may serve them better than asking Rodriguez to do it, all else being equal.
     
  32. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    I would be shocked if Smith is on a playoff roster.
     
  33. phenweigh

    phenweigh Member SoSH Member

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    886
    I would be quite surprised if Barnes and Hembree and left off the post-season roster (barring injury, of course). One of them, maybe, but not both. I think Austin Maddox has a nearly 0% chance making it, as I'd also put him behind Boyer and probably Workman in the pecking order. I like Robby Scott, but I think his spot is also in jeopardy if Price is in the pen. Then there is the Rajai Davis factor ... might the Sox decide to go with a 7 man pen in order to have a designated base stealer on the roster?
     
  34. phenweigh

    phenweigh Member SoSH Member

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    886
    I should have mentioned Smith in my post as well. I'm reserving judgment on Carson. If he pitches well from now until the end of the season, it wouldn't shock me at all if he's on a playoff roster.
     
  35. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    There is zero chance Drew Pomeranz is in the bullpen this post-season (barring a game 7 all-hands-on-deck type situation). You don't take your second best starter from the season and make him a reliever because he has more experience relieving than other starters.

    Your best four healthy starters as of season's end should be your post-season rotation. The lone exception I'd make is if #4 and #5 are fairly close and each throw with a different hand. Then maybe you make a decision based on match-ups (e.g. if your opponent's lineup is RHH heavy, you go with the RHP). Other than that, you start your four best. Period.

    IMO, the post-season bullpen, assuming Price is ready to go, will look like this:

    Kimbrel
    Reed
    Barnes
    Kelly
    Workman
    Price
    Porcello

    IF they add an 8th guy, I expect it will be a lefty, either Scott or Abad. Not much chance that Smith makes the roster if he's still an every other day guy. You want all of your relievers to be able to go on back to back days in the playoffs.
     
  36. flymrfreakjar

    flymrfreakjar Member SoSH Member

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    With Price dealing with arm problems all season I’d be pretty shocked if they entertained the idea of having him relieve. Throwing high pressure playoff innings, at max effort and at unpredictable times, seems like a recipe for disaster for a guy coming off his second long DL trip of the season.
     
  37. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    Carson Smith has an outside shot if Price is deemed not ready for bullpen duty, which wouldn't shock me. At this point, the 4 starters are Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, and one of Porcello/Ed-Rod, with the final slot likely down to a combination of (a) who pitches better these next 3 weeks and (b) matchups.
     
  38. normstalls

    normstalls Member SoSH Member

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    Smith over Workman? PLEASE no. I think you have to have Workman on the roster and I don't think Smith has shown enough yet.
     
  39. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I don't know what the makeup will be. There's still 18 games to go - people could get hurt, guys could slump or step up, who knows. There's a group of pitchers that seem to me to be in a similar batch - guys who could be good or not, but for different reasons. Smith, Barnes, Workman, Maddox. Smith, when right, is nasty. Workman is solid and has good playoff experience. Maddox is probably the least of these guys but honestly, I trust him over Barnes. Farrell seems to like Barnes still.

    As for Price, I think if he's healthy he'll be on the playoff roster. But since he won't be up to strength to start, the place for him is the bullpen.
     
  40. Green Monster

    Green Monster Member SoSH Member

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    1,768
    Price just recently threw a 2 inning simulated game and hopes to repeat that in 4-5 days (presumably ramping up his pitch count). If the Sox are lucky and things go well, he might be ready to make a start the last week of the season. That could be helpful in giving other starters extra rest and lining them up for the playoffs. Beyond that I don't think Price is going to offer much value.............. I wouldn't make him part of the playoff roster if he only makes one appearance between now and then.
     
  41. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Smith needs to continue to work on his stuff. If he can improve enough in the next 3 weeks then I could see him in the 'pen for the series. If not, then he can continue to work on the side while the Sox play in the ALDS and maybe be available later, if necessary
     
  42. tims4wins

    tims4wins PN23's replacement SoSH Member

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  43. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    I put this in the callup thread, but I think Farrell is going to give Maddox a shot to be this year's 2013 Workman. I can see him getting some early leverage that Barnes (and especially Hembree) had been getting to see if he has a playoff roster future.
     
  44. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Could Price be in the Andrew Miller-typerole? He could come in whenever the situation calls and for multiple innings. That would keep Kimbrel in a closing role and the short relievers from overextending themselves.
     
  45. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    23,832
    This has come up a couple times, and it seems like a great idea to me. No way he'll have time to get stretched out very far, but a couple innings seems realistic. The other non-starting starter could do the same.
     
  46. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    29,208
    I can see him giving you 2 or 3 innings at a time, but no way will you see him going in back to back games like Miller could.
     
  47. Red(s)HawksFan

    Red(s)HawksFan Member SoSH Member

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    Bingo. The advantage that Miller provided was that he was available pretty much every game (19.1 innings over 10 appearances in 15 total games). No way do they do that with Price, not coming off an arm injury. Only way Price gets used in back to back games is if at least one of those appearances are a classic LOOGY situation...1 or 2 batters then out.
     
  48. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I don't see Price in the Miller role. I just see him as, if healthy, one of the best pitchers on the team. And if one of the best pitchers on the team is healthy, you don't leave him off the playoff roster.

    But since he can't start, he is in the pen. They'll likely have 7-8 relievers so they don't need everyone to be able to go every day. Price could be the difference in any single game.

    If he's healthy you just don't leave a pitcher of his caliber off the playoff roster. You may have to use him wisely but you CAN use him.
     
  49. Plympton91

    Plympton91 bubble burster SoSH Member

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    10,781
    Price has missed 2 months and will be coming back with very limited rehab time. Even if he is "healthy" at the start of the playoffs, that doesn't mean he is "ready." And even if he looks ready, pitchers coming back from long layoffs go through a dead arm period after a couple outings. He'd be prone to that in the middle of the playoffs. I think it is questionable whether he can be anything more than a LOOGY who can't pitch back to back days. That isn't very valuable.
     

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