Bullpen 2017
- Thread starter nvalvo
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I dont want to get into the "anyone but Kelly" debate, but I asked for a closer and you found one. I think it's notable for its rarity, but it would be nice to see it more often. The absolute charbroiling of managers who escaped the 7th or 8th with their best reliever, only to have a not-closer lose it in the 9th (since, unlike the "firemen" of yore, most hi-leverage relievers don't pitch multiple innings, no matter when they come into the game) would pretty entertaining. Green has a nice situation in SD, though, in which to experiment. Something to keep an eye on if he sticks with it.
To be fair Felipe Rivero has been used as a bullpen ace too and Watson would close lower leverage opportunities, Cody Allen was also all for Miller saving games at times last year when it was best for the team. Not so much this year.
How mangers want to use their best relievers vs. how they can use their best relievers without internal bleating is still a pretty big gap though. Basically arbitrators still ruin everything.
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Can we note that the attempted Hand maneuver (heh) by SD was even less successful than Reed/Kelly last night? Yes, Hand came in to face Votto in the 7th with a 3-2 lead and two guys on, but he walked him, got a strikeout for out 2, and then gave up consecutive homers and they ended up losing 10-3.
I saw that. I'm not really considering the result. Just the strategy. Coming in in the middle of the count was ridiculous, absent that, it's the strategy that's more interesting. Ultimately, I don't think contending teams will do it anytime soon.
Ironically, since shitty teams are likely to have fewer good relievers, it makes the most sense for the manager of a bad team to really try and leverage the good guys.
That aside, I am all-for referring to any use of a closer before the 9th as a "Hand Maneuver."
And Hand is an even worse comparison to Kimbrel than Andrew Miller, he's only had about a month to get used to being the closer, while Kimbrel's been nothing but the closer virtually his whole career.
Can we also note Kimbrel's last 8th inning appearance ended in a blown save? BTW, the Yanks were the opponent.
I think it's time for Farrell to see how Brandon Workman would do in a higher leverage situation.
In his 15 MLB games this season, he's gone 21.2 IP, 18 H, 3 BB, 19 K, 4 R, 2 HR. In his last 9 appearances 0 runs scored in 10.1 IP with 6 H, 9 K, 0 BB.
According to a Bradford article on WEEI (http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/best-red-sox-story-almost-nobody-talking-about), Workman has the life back in his fastball.
I'd like to see a late-innings reliever come in who's going to throw strikes. Worth a shot, I'd say, after the Barnes and Reed meltdowns of the past few days.
In his 15 MLB games this season, he's gone 21.2 IP, 18 H, 3 BB, 19 K, 4 R, 2 HR. In his last 9 appearances 0 runs scored in 10.1 IP with 6 H, 9 K, 0 BB.
According to a Bradford article on WEEI (http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/best-red-sox-story-almost-nobody-talking-about), Workman has the life back in his fastball.
I'd like to see a late-innings reliever come in who's going to throw strikes. Worth a shot, I'd say, after the Barnes and Reed meltdowns of the past few days.
John Farrell should be Devers' biggest fan because if he had struck out instead of hitting the home run, Red Sox fans would be going crazy today over how the manager managed the bullpen in the 8th inning. My goodness he doesn't even know the rules.
This will still be the main story on the shows throughout the day. The fact he didn't even know the rule and had to tuck his tail between his legs and go back is "on the phone, mouth open, staring at a bomb hoping it stays foul" bad
Frankly I don't understand this. Are you talking about the ninth? If the Sox don't tie it up with that amazing hr from that kid, I again shake my head over Barnes and his control.
Regarding the "not knowing the rules" thing ..
As mentioned in the game thread, It all depended on the timing of the Willis visit and Ellsbury being announced. If it had been in that order then the change would have been allowed .. Blue decided otherwise. Regardless, yanking Reed in favour of Kimbrel was absolutely the right thing to do.
Regarding the 8th inning and Barnes, I think the main problem (and its typical of Farrell) was that he didn't have another RH warming up - just Scott - so his options were limited. IMO, either Workman or Hembree should have been up as well.
I hope Farrell hasn't completely lost Reed .. obviously his confidence in him appears to be severely diminished (and for good reason). Supposedly one of Reed's strengths is his control and that hasn't been on display much lately.
As mentioned in the game thread, It all depended on the timing of the Willis visit and Ellsbury being announced. If it had been in that order then the change would have been allowed .. Blue decided otherwise. Regardless, yanking Reed in favour of Kimbrel was absolutely the right thing to do.
Regarding the 8th inning and Barnes, I think the main problem (and its typical of Farrell) was that he didn't have another RH warming up - just Scott - so his options were limited. IMO, either Workman or Hembree should have been up as well.
I hope Farrell hasn't completely lost Reed .. obviously his confidence in him appears to be severely diminished (and for good reason). Supposedly one of Reed's strengths is his control and that hasn't been on display much lately.
Kimbrel was the right move but after a 1-0 count is ridiculous. He should've been in from the beginning but likely wasn't ready, which is Farrell's biggest weakness--having relievers ready when it's very obvious your current one doesn't have it. Allowing Barnes to go as far as he did in the 8th is inexcusable. With his struggles on the road you have someone warming behind him from the get go.
If sucking and getting pulled loses Reed I don't want him in a playoff game anyway.
Small reminder that all the usual suspects had the same reaction to the Pomeranz/Farrell disagreement earlier this season. How's he been doing?
Barnes struggles are primarily in high leverage situations. And he's worse on the road. Basically everything you don't want in terms of "intangibles" from a relief pitcher.
Just curious... Which reliever does SoSH trust the most in a big time high leverage spot, aside from Kimbrel?
Hembree
Kelly
Barnes
Reed
Scott
Abad
Workman
For me, I think each of these guys has positives and negatives. Scott looked incredible blowing Gregorius away last night, but obviously he's had his struggles. Hembree looks bad but then has these outings where he looks dominant. Barnes...hard to trust him but the numbers aren't bad. Kelly seems like he's going great and then implodes. Reed? Who knows. Workman looks good but is still on his way back.
I guess for me, after Kimbrel, I'd rank them...
1. Workman
2. Kelly
3. Reed
4. Scott
5. Hembree
6. Barnes
7. Abad
But Scott has to be going up against a lefty. Same for Abad. What do you guys think? Who do you trust the most besides Kimbrel in a big spot?
Hembree
Kelly
Barnes
Reed
Scott
Abad
Workman
For me, I think each of these guys has positives and negatives. Scott looked incredible blowing Gregorius away last night, but obviously he's had his struggles. Hembree looks bad but then has these outings where he looks dominant. Barnes...hard to trust him but the numbers aren't bad. Kelly seems like he's going great and then implodes. Reed? Who knows. Workman looks good but is still on his way back.
I guess for me, after Kimbrel, I'd rank them...
1. Workman
2. Kelly
3. Reed
4. Scott
5. Hembree
6. Barnes
7. Abad
But Scott has to be going up against a lefty. Same for Abad. What do you guys think? Who do you trust the most besides Kimbrel in a big spot?
Maybe Farrell had him in the situation to see if his road issues as just SSS noise (still only 27 innings) and see how much he will be able to trust him on the road in the playoffs. He didn't give up a hit in his last 2 road appearances before last night, so maybe he was hoping to get some momentum for him on the road. Of course, he mismanaged it and nearly cost us the game.
Managing a playoff bullpen is hard enough, but when you have a guy who is a shut down reliever at home, and unusable on the road, it makes it that much worse.
If we're talking about the playoffs, and Price is healthy, can I answer Porcello or EdRo (whoever gets bumped from the rotation)?
Or Chris Sale, à la 2001 Randy Johnson, 2014 Bumgarner, et al.?
I'm not convinced Farrell did anything wrong last night. At the end of the day, he needs guys like Barnes and Reed to produce. And there are still managers that would refuse to bring in their closer in the 9th inning of a tie game on the road; fortunately, Farrell is not one of them.
What Farrell did wrong was trusting Barnes in that situation to begin with. Barnes should not be anywhere near any high leverage situations. His numbers, not only this year but for his career, in high leverage situations are frighteningly bad.
I understand the options for high leverage innings before the 9th aren't plentiful for JF, especially since he seems to have already lost confidence in Reed, but Barnes should be way further down on those list of options for JF than he appears to be.
In other 8th inning news, here is the Carson Smith game log as it sits.
Pitching every three days is the cadence at this point. Next day is likely Tuesday home against Syracuse.
Pitching every three days is the cadence at this point. Next day is likely Tuesday home against Syracuse.
I was miffed that Farrell didn't have anyone up in the 8th Friday. But if this is a pattern, isn't it possible he's just picking his poison? Occasional consequences but in the long run his relievers are fresher (and maybe a little happier) because they haven't gotten up too many times when they weren't needed? We always hear that this is a problem with more cautious managers. Obviously we can complain about little things but overall the bullpen has been phenomenal all season.
Farrell is very aware of wear and tear caused by warming up in the bullpen, the vast majority of time if someone warms up they are coming in. He very rarely warms a guy up just in case a particular reliever is bad that day. I would assume in a tight race at the end of the year that would change a bit and you could warm up Reed as you are putting Barnes in to the game just in case.
If he warmed pitchers up as often as many here want him to all year long the bullpen would be toast in June.
If he warmed pitchers up as often as many here want him to all year long the bullpen would be toast in June.
Right, so with a 5.5 game lead (4.5 on Friday) maybe you just let it go if Reed sucks that day. I've said this a few different ways over the years but I love that Tito would manage for the long run over the short run all the time. His Sox teams (and now Indians) rarely flopped down the stretch and in October. Even I (eventually) managed to not freak out Friday, thinking that Reed blew one, it happens, and if that's what it takes for the Yankees to beat us, good luck.
ESPN showed Reed throwing before and during Frazier's AB. He didn't seem to be doing it with much urgency either time - so I don't know if he was just starting to get loose or was already warm. Several batters earlier they had showed Scott throwing alone. Since they had the lead, I can't think Reed was just getting an early start on loosening for the 9th. I don't disagree that Barnes shouldn't have pitched to Frazier (or Sanchez), since he clearly didn't have it.
Noe Ramirez was DFA'd to allow Elias to go to AAA following his 60-day DL. My guess is they will see if Elias can be an effective LH reliever for down the stretch.
I'd like to pause to bid farewell to No Way Ramirez, whose almost-submarine delivery had minimal movement and no deception. His sinker wouldn't sink.
Carson Smith rehab update. Tough day on Tuesday (his 3rd PawSox outing, 4th outing overall): 0.1 IP, 2ER.
Ld double, balk, gb single, gb single, force at 2nd, 14 of 17 pitches strikes.
Ld double, balk, gb single, gb single, force at 2nd, 14 of 17 pitches strikes.
Floater?
Speaking of the 60 day DL, if/when Carson Smith is ready another DFA will be needed. And what's the story on Robby Ross? I don't recall hearing/reading what his injury is.
According to Tim Britton, he's started to throw bullpen sessions and hopes to return by the end of the year.
Apparently, his elbow is recovered but he was set back by a pinched nerve in his back suffered while avoiding a foul ball in the dugout.
Could be, but with Smith, the results aren't really all that important at this stage. He's still in the building strength and stamina phase. That he's throwing strikes is a plus, though.
Selsky would be easy to get rid of. Or maybe Abad or Boyer, since you'd have to make room on the 25, too, and I'm not sure anyone has options other than Scott
Wonder if they considered putting Hembree on the 10-day for fatigue?
Against the Yankees and Cleveland series over the next 2 1/2 weeks, I'd be more aggressive with the pen and go situational. The rest of our schedule is against sub .500 teams, except the last 4 games against Houston, and all these teams may be playing out the string with youngsters/back-ups.
So against the Yanks and Indians in late/tight:
9th inning and 1 out needed in 8th w/men on: Kimbrel
7th/8th: opt for situational and go with left/right. Barnes, Kelly, Workman, Abad and Scott all have strong splits.
6th/7th: use Reed for an entire inning+ against the bottom half of the opposing teams' lineup
And Hembree, should never face a LHH or see a late/tight situation. I'd like Boyer to replace Hembree, but that can wait till rosters expand.
I'd really like DD to add a shutdown LOOGY. A pen with 4RHP/3LHP or 5RHP/2LHP (Abad and Scott vying for 2nd LOOGY) would be attractive in the playoffs.
Obviously, we don't want to burn out the pen, but we could probably get away with this over the next 2 weeks before September call-ups.
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No one needs to be DFA'd from the 25 man. In 2 weeks rosters expand, and maybe RRJ or Carston Smith will be ready to join the team by then
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everytime I think about planning of this nature (which I'm sure the team does as well) it seems like someone gets hurt, or has a run of ineffectiveness that suggests getting him out of hi-leverage for awhile or they plays 20 straight 40-inning games to blow it all up for 3 weeks.
I think an Inning designation is nice-looking, and makes for more facile criticism ("ohmygod he used his 6th inning guy in the 7th inning,") but its rigidity often ignores the reality of a particular game, or the restedness of a particular reliever. There's two realities: 1) None of the not-Kimbrels have been consistenly lights-out (of, say, the Okajima or prime Tazawa ilk); 2) it's unrealisitc to have everyone else warming up anytime one of the non-Kimbrels comes in or gives up a single baserunner, just because today "might be one of those days where he sucks." Unfortunately, *everyday* is one of those days.
I know with Pom leaving early, the Farrell apologists will claim that Manager John's hands were tied, but there were several alternatives.
Here is more managerial malpractice with the bullpen last night:
1. 6th inning last night with Didi, Headley and Frazier coming up Manager John goes with Barnes, meh? That would have been the perfect time to go with either Abad or Scott to start the inning off.
2. JoKe gives up the tying HR to open the 7th. Didi, Headley coming up - why not Abad or Scott? JoKe can not face LHH in a late/tight situation. Strictly use JoKe vs. RHH.
3. If Hembree is going to be on the 25 man, he has to be your emergency long man. Abad needs to move up higher in the pecking order. Hembree can not be put in late/tight situations anymore and absolutely under no circumstances face an LHH if we have an LHP available.
4. Not a big deal, but still questionable, why bring Workman in the 4th inning? A three-run lead in the 4th inning isn't exactly a high leverage situation. Workman has been the most dependable reliever, other than Kimbrel, over the last month. I'd be inclined to save him for later in the game. Not a huge deal, the other three moves above were much more perplexing.
Here is more managerial malpractice with the bullpen last night:
1. 6th inning last night with Didi, Headley and Frazier coming up Manager John goes with Barnes, meh? That would have been the perfect time to go with either Abad or Scott to start the inning off.
2. JoKe gives up the tying HR to open the 7th. Didi, Headley coming up - why not Abad or Scott? JoKe can not face LHH in a late/tight situation. Strictly use JoKe vs. RHH.
3. If Hembree is going to be on the 25 man, he has to be your emergency long man. Abad needs to move up higher in the pecking order. Hembree can not be put in late/tight situations anymore and absolutely under no circumstances face an LHH if we have an LHP available.
4. Not a big deal, but still questionable, why bring Workman in the 4th inning? A three-run lead in the 4th inning isn't exactly a high leverage situation. Workman has been the most dependable reliever, other than Kimbrel, over the last month. I'd be inclined to save him for later in the game. Not a huge deal, the other three moves above were much more perplexing.
All of the not kimbrels are shit about half the time.
Last night Reed was good. I'm sure if he wasn't you would be complaining that he's really a 6th inning on Tuesday guy, not a 7th inning on Friday guy.
Teams win games when their starter goes 3 innings maybe a third of the time, and youre finding "malpractice "
Last night Reed was good. I'm sure if he wasn't you would be complaining that he's really a 6th inning on Tuesday guy, not a 7th inning on Friday guy.
Teams win games when their starter goes 3 innings maybe a third of the time, and youre finding "malpractice "
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The win happened in spite of the managing. Sox knocked in guys with men in scoring position, the Yanks didn't.
Reed in the 6th, 7th or 8th is irrelevant. As I said in post #539 above Reed should face multiple batters for more than an inning ("an entire inning +") like he did last night. That was fine. The issue is using, JoKe, Barnes and Hembree in the manner Farrell did. Kelly can't face a LHH in a big spot, and Hembree can't pitch in a big spot, that's "malpractice". Especially when you have two LHP available that could match up. It's quite simple really.
Agreed, the 'not Kimbrels' have been inconsistent lately, but they would perform better if given a more defined role like facing the strong side of a split. This can start being enacted now with the rosters expanding in 2 weeks.
Please explain why Didi and Headley didn't face a LHP late in the game last night?
Because they faced Reed, which you state was the correct decision? I don't consider nobody out in the 7th to be a close and late situation requiring playing to the matchups, especially when your starter left in the 4th and you're stretching your bullpen. That's why I don't take much issue with the decisions Farrell made last night. I think the most egregious situation was bringing in RHP Barnes to start the 6th. But it was righties Frazier and Sanchez who hit the HRs off Barnes and Kelly. "The results aren't what matters, it's the decision-making." I get it. But not when your pitchers can't do what they're expected to do, anyway.
Regardless, since this is an extension of the Fire Farrell thread, did you watch the bottom of the 7th?
