Building the next winning team/We can't stay on topic thread

[wutang112878]

 
So to me the Philly/Orlando strategy makes a good deal of sense.

 
By model I think you mean trying to compete without a true superstar player?  And Philly and Orlando are in the early stages of building that type of team.
 
I think Indiana is probably the best example of a non-superstar model, where you

• Have a very deep starting 5 where your 3rd - 5th best players are better than the elite teams 3rd-5th best players to compensate for your lack of a superstar
• Pay your 'good' starters as 'good' starters, not max dollars
• Get production out of young players on rookie deals
• Play great defense - Indy is 1st in defensive rating

The Pacers payroll was $68M with Granger at $14M, so they could deal with 1 cap mistake.
 
The difficult part is keeping your starters while not overpaying them, and probably the most difficult finding your young underpaid players like George and Stephenson.  Its really difficult to do.
 
Next year George's extension negates Granger coming off the books, they are at $65M in payroll and need to resign Stephenson
 
 
 

Pacers

Player	Salary	TS%	eFG%	DRtg
Paul George	$3.3M	0.57	0.512	95
Lance Stephenson	$1M	0.564	0.541	98
Roy Hibbert	$14.3M	0.516	0.459	95
David West	$12M	0.535	0.497	96
George Hill	$8M	0.582	0.536	99
C.J. Watson	$2M	0.523	0.482	98
Luis Scola	$4.5M	0.493	0.458	95
Ian Mahinmi	$4M	0.49	0.424	94
Danny Granger	$14M	0.491	0.428	99
Orlando Johnson	$1M	0.431	0.385	100
Rasual Butler	$1M	0.615	0.608	99
Solomon Hill	$1.2M	0.514	0.481	99
Donald Sloan	$1M	0.512	0.486	97
Chris Copeland	$3M	0.597	0.578	100

 

[Kliq]

Please remember that the Celtics are not going to be able to land a max free agent, so clearing that much cap space is kind of pointless. Boston is not a free agent destination, guys want to go to either big markets, or warm weather. That is why all the best free agents go to Los Angeles, Miami etc.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Brick's point is that Boston has never even been in a position to sit at the poker table.  The KG/PP/Doc era of winning and glad tidings (they returned as conquering heroes, and praised the city effusively) didn't go unnoticed throughout the league.  The Celtics have undergone a renaissance.  With attractive young talent and oodles of cap space, this is really Boston's first chance to compete in the free agent bonanza.  2015/16 should truly test the theory Kliq (and others) have espoused for years.

 

[bowiac]

Please remember that the Celtics are not going to be able to land a max free agent, so clearing that much cap space is kind of pointless. Boston is not a free agent destination, guys want to go to either big markets, or warm weather. That is why all the best free agents go to Los Angeles, Miami etc.

I wouldn't read too much into history here. Before Dwight Howard, no max guy had ever left as a free agent without a sign and trade and thus turned down the extra year on his contract either. Before LeBron nobody had ever left a 60 win team. Etc... NBA history just isn't that long and modern free agency isn't that old. We're talking a dozen or so guys ever.
 
Plus Garnett was basically the same thing. He was a max player, a top 5 guy in the NBA, who agreed to come to Boston. He wasn't drafted by the Celtics, and he didn't have to come here, but he did because he was convinced it was his best chance to win a title. If the 76ers draft Embiid and Wiggins, and both guys look like stars, then all of a sudden Philly is gonna start looking like a plum free agent destination for Kevin Love I bet.
 
Do weather and Hollywood matter? Sure. Are they the only things that matter? Absolutely not.

 

[Jer]

Please remember that the Celtics are not going to be able to land a max free agent, so clearing that much cap space is kind of pointless. Boston is not a free agent destination, guys want to go to either big markets, or warm weather. That is why all the best free agents go to Los Angeles, Miami etc.

 
I agree that they're at a disadvantage with FAs, but under the right circumstances it's possible. Imagine...
 
- Get lucky with ping-pong balls and draft Joel Embiid. He shows flashes of greatness in his 1st two seasons.
- Resigning Rondo in 2015 (for slightly less than max).
- Sullinger develops into a solid 18/9 PF with a decent all-round game
 
A guy like Durant might really like the idea of joining that core in the summer of 2016, especially if the Celtics found a decent SG with one of their other picks.

 

[nighthob]

Please remember that the Celtics are not going to be able to land a max free agent, so clearing that much cap space is kind of pointless. Boston is not a free agent destination, guys want to go to either big markets, or warm weather. That is why all the best free agents go to Los Angeles, Miami etc.

Can we stop with the loser talk? Please? Professional athletes care about two things, winning and money. Period, end of story. Boston's problem was that the era that real free agency arrived in the NBA was the era that this team was owned by Donald Sterling Lite (aka Paul "Thanks, Dad!" Gaston) and even then were able to sign free agents, it's just that the management was so inept that they always bet on the wrong horse.

The Celtics are no longer owned by a cheapskate owner nor managed by a front office that's the butt of league jokes. And Boston is not a "small market". Jesus the eastern mass megalopolis is one of the largest in the country. We are a big market. And if the New England fucking Patriots can convince guys to come play football outdoors in bitter January weather by virtue of being a winning organization then the Boston Celtics will certainly be able to talk guys into playing in a nice indoor arena.

 

[Kliq]

I wouldn't read too much into history here. Before Dwight Howard, no max guy had ever left as a free agent without a sign and trade and thus turned down the extra year on his contract either. Before LeBron nobody had ever left a 60 win team. Etc... NBA history just isn't that long and modern free agency isn't that old. We're talking a dozen or so guys ever.
 
Plus Garnett was basically the same thing. He was a max player, a top 5 guy in the NBA, who agreed to come to Boston. He wasn't drafted by the Celtics, and he didn't have to come here, but he did because he was convinced it was his best chance to win a title. If the 76ers draft Embiid and Wiggins, and both guys look like stars, then all of a sudden Philly is gonna start looking like a plum free agent destination for Kevin Love I bet.
 
Do weather and Hollywood matter? Sure. Are they the only things that matter? Absolutely not.

 
You have a point about it being a small sample size with FA. Garnett is an example, but then again, KG is a different kind of breed than most NBA guys.
 
 

 
I agree that they're at a disadvantage with FAs, but under the right circumstances it's possible. Imagine...
 
- Get lucky with ping-pong balls and draft Joel Embiid. He shows flashes of greatness in his 1st two seasons.
- Resigning Rondo in 2015 (for slightly less than max).
- Sullinger develops into a solid 18/9 PF with a decent all-round game
 
A guy like Durant might really like the idea of joining that core in the summer of 2016, especially if the Celtics found a decent SG with one of their other picks.

 
While the Celtics COULD do that, you also have to take into consideration that in today's NBA, there are a dozen teams that have that same thought process. There will be one superstar available and there will be half a dozen teams tanking and trying to clear space to get him. You clear all that space, and keep telling your fans that a superstar is coming and then when you strike out what happens? You end up being the Knicks, and you sign Stoudemire to an insanely poor deal because you have to get SOMETHING from clearing all that cap space. The Celtics don't have to just have an intriguing prospect to land Durant, they have to have a more intriguing prospect than any of the other teams that are doing the same thing.
 
 

The Celtics are no longer owned by a cheapskate owner nor managed by a front office that's the butt of league jokes. And Boston is not a "small market". Jesus the eastern mass megalopolis is one of the largest in the country. We are a big market. And if the New England fucking Patriots can convince guys to come play football outdoors in bitter January weather by virtue of being a winning organization then the Boston Celtics will certainly be able to talk guys into playing in a nice indoor arena.

 
The comparison between the Patriots is ridiculous because the NFL and the NBA are completely different when it comes to free agency, and just in general, having 2 star players is way, way more impactful in basketball than in football. When I said big markets, I meant the major TV markets in America (NYC, Chicago, LA). Boston just isn't in that category.

 

[wutang112878]

 
While the Celtics COULD do that, you also have to take into consideration that in today's NBA, there are a dozen teams that have that same thought process. There will be one superstar available and there will be half a dozen teams tanking and trying to clear space to get him. You clear all that space, and keep telling your fans that a superstar is coming and then when you strike out what happens? You end up being the Knicks, and you sign Stoudemire to an insanely poor deal because you have to get SOMETHING from clearing all that cap space. The Celtics don't have to just have an intriguing prospect to land Durant, they have to have a more intriguing prospect than any of the other teams that are doing the same thing.

 
If you have cap space and cant get 'your guy' you dont have to blow it on somebody just to get something.  Thats something bad organizations do and can be avoided.
 
As for everyone trying to clear cap space and therefore there is no guarantee for you isnt that true with any scenario?  You may want to build like OKC with consecutive high lottery picks but you arent guaranteed you will get a high pick or a good player will be available.  You have to take risks and hope they pay off, you cant just take pitches and hope for a walk.  If you just focus on the chances against you for any strategy you will just be convinced you cant win, thats a losers mentality.

 

[Brickowski]

My null hypothesis (which has never been tested) is that if you pay them, and if they feel they have a chance to win, free agents will come-- to Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Portland or anywhere else.

 

[Jer]

One option for a team with surplus cap space is to sign a 2nd tier FA to a massively front-loaded contract. Take the cap hit in the year you have the surplus and gain a valuable underpaid guy in subsequent years. This is the opposite of the Asik dynamic. We talked about this strategy one one of these threads.
 
Sure it'd be better to land Durant, but I think you can chart a successful course either way. The nice thing about Stoudemire-type deals is that at least a few GMs will blink and make that mistake. Advantage Celtics.
 
As Wu says... to be a contender you need to be smart and get lucky multiple times. 

 

[nighthob]

While the Celtics COULD do that, you also have to take into consideration that in today's NBA, there are a dozen teams that have that same thought process. There will be one superstar available and there will be half a dozen teams tanking and trying to clear space to get him. You clear all that space, and keep telling your fans that a superstar is coming and then when you strike out what happens? You end up being the Knicks, and you sign Stoudemire to an insanely poor deal because you have to get SOMETHING from clearing all that cap space. The Celtics don't have to just have an intriguing prospect to land Durant, they have to have a more intriguing prospect than any of the other teams that are doing the same thing.
 
The comparison between the Patriots is ridiculous because the NFL and the NBA are completely different when it comes to free agency, and just in general, having 2 star players is way, way more impactful in basketball than in football. When I said big markets, I meant the major TV markets in America (NYC, Chicago, LA). Boston just isn't in that category.

So you're maintaining that the Knicks couldn't get anyone good and overpaid for Amar'e Stoudemire, so therefore Boston shouldn't try to sign anyone in free agency because they're not a large market team like the Knicks...

Look, real free agency only arrived in the NBA a little over twenty years ago. The Celtics then owner hired boobs like Dave Gavitt to run the team (into the ground) and spent all his time making excuses for his mismanagement. The "Woe is me! Free agents won't ever come here!" thing was one of their marketing campaigns to isolate themselves from criticism of their incompetence. They were signing free agents right along, just the wrong ones every time they had the chance.

And, yes, when you're claiming that no one would ever choose to play basketball in a "cold weather climate" it's legitimate to point out that the New England Patriots have zero problems convincing guys to not only play sports in the cold weather, but to play a fucking outdoor sport that hurts more in the cold weather. Want to know something else? It's a fuckload easier to go play football in the warm weather cities than basketball due to the CBA. Yet football players line up to come here and experience more pain. Why? Because they're getting paid to play for a winning team.

I hate to break it to you, but there just aren't that many max salary slots available on large market teams in warm weather climates. And, if we take a gander at the LA Clippers, a warm weather team in a major media market, they've had less success in free agency than the Detroit fucking Pistons. I wonder why that is if no NBA player would ever choose to play in a cold weather climate?

We are not losers. We should stop talking and acting like losers. In NBA terms we are the motherfucking Yankees. Yes, Boston had shitty ownership in the opening decade of free agency. But those days are long past.

 

[wutang112878]

To build on the Celts cap space history as Brick and JBone mentioned upthread, I just realized the Celts have literally never had an opportunity to use cap space in recent history.  Danny has never had cap space, during the Obie/Chris Wallace years we never had cap space, Pitino never had cap space.  We've literally never had an opportunity to even see if we could actually attract a FA, so its not as if we have a small sample size, as mentioned we literally dont have a sample size at all.
 
If someone wants to go back to the ML Carr days and say we couldnt attract a FA at that point, well that seems pretty irrelevant given that its 15+ years ago

 

[nighthob]

Pitino did have cap space, he wasted it on Kenny Anderson and Travis Knight amongst other players.

 

[bowiac]

One option for a team with surplus cap space is to sign a 2nd tier FA to a massively front-loaded contract. Take the cap hit in the year you have the surplus and gain a valuable underpaid guy in subsequent years. This is the opposite of the Asik dynamic. We talked about this strategy one one of these threads.

This isn't how the CBA works. You average the annual salaries. Asik's cap figure is the same in every year of his deal. Only his actual salary balloons from ~$5M to $15M. His cap figure is $8.4M/year every year. The same would be true of a reverse contract.
 
Which is precisely why the CBA works this way, to avoid teams trying this very move.

 

[Brickowski]

Pitino did have cap space, he wasted it on Kenny Anderson and Travis Knight amongst other players.

Anderson was acquired in a trade with Toronto (involving Billups and others).  He wasn't a free agent.  And Travis Knight cost them $2M for one year before being traded to the Lakers for Tony Battie.  Knight was making less than Greg Minor.
 
Pitino did have cap space, but never enough for a premium free agent, and when he gave Antoine that big cap-killing contract, there was no longer any chance of signing one.

 

[Jer]

This isn't how the CBA works. You average the annual salaries. Asik's cap figure is the same in every year of his deal. Only his actual salary balloons from ~$5M to $15M. His cap figure is $8.4M/year every year. The same would be true of a reverse contract.
 
Which is precisely why the CBA works this way, to avoid teams trying this very move.

 
Sorry I should've said "re-sign". I thought you can give a fat bonus that counts against the current cap year if you're under the cap. Has this become illegal since Collison? I don't see it mentioned in the CBA FAQ, so now I'm not sure. Google isn't helping either.
 
If it's possible you might look at doing this with Sullinger or Olynyk if we had a surplus of cap space. You'd get the future years of their contracts at a 15% discount.

 

[bowiac]

There are weird things you can do to re-sign your own guys, yeah. Asik and Lin were under the Gilbert Arenas rule, which is why their cap numbers were different for the Bulls/Knicks vs. the Rockets. I don't know the Collison rule exactly, but it seems to be similar.

 

[nighthob]

Anderson was acquired in a trade with Toronto (involving Billups and others).  He wasn't a free agent.  And Travis Knight cost them $2M for one year before being traded to the Lakers for Tony Battie.  Knight was making less than Greg Minor.
 
Pitino did have cap space, but never enough for a premium free agent, and when he gave Antoine that big cap-killing contract, there was no longer any chance of signing one.

They extended Anderson when they absolutely didn't have to.(It is possible to blow cap space on your own guys, see Douglas, Sherman) And while Knight's money seems small peanuts now, it was a max MLE deal in its day (i.e. the late 90s version of the Courtney Lee deal we all bitched about).

 

[wutang112878]

 
Sorry I should've said "re-sign". I thought you can give a fat bonus that counts against the current cap year if you're under the cap. Has this become illegal since Collison? I don't see it mentioned in the CBA FAQ, so now I'm not sure. Google isn't helping either.
 
If it's possible you might look at doing this with Sullinger or Olynyk if we had a surplus of cap space. You'd get the future years of their contracts at a 15% discount.

 
You piqued my interest but I cant figure this out.  According to this, the signing bonus % was reduced from 20% to 15%.  The Collison contract fell under the 20% limit, but according to this he got a $6.5M signing bonus on a 4 year $11M extension.  By my math the signing bonus was 60% which obviously exceeds the 20%   Somehow they found a loophole and without knowing what that is I wonder if its still open

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
You piqued my interest but I cant figure this out.  According to this, the signing bonus % was reduced from 20% to 15%.  The Collison contract fell under the 20% limit, but according to this he got a $6.5M signing bonus on a 4 year $11M extension.  By my math the signing bonus was 60% which obviously exceeds the 20%   Somehow they found a loophole and without knowing what that is I wonder if its still open

 
Collison signed his extension under the old CBA.

 

[Kliq]

 
If you have cap space and cant get 'your guy' you dont have to blow it on somebody just to get something.  Thats something bad organizations do and can be avoided.
 
As for everyone trying to clear cap space and therefore there is no guarantee for you isnt that true with any scenario?  You may want to build like OKC with consecutive high lottery picks but you arent guaranteed you will get a high pick or a good player will be available.  You have to take risks and hope they pay off, you cant just take pitches and hope for a walk.  If you just focus on the chances against you for any strategy you will just be convinced you cant win, thats a losers mentality.

 
I guess it comes down to what style of rebuilding you prefer. I would really like to stay away from the "Land the big FA plan" because that takes the ball out of Boston's hands. The Celtics can try and make Boston seem as alluring as possible, but in the end, it will come down to the individual player choosing whether or not they want to play there or someone else. At least in the draft, it is pretty much entirely up to the Celtics as to what player they are going to get. Sure the lottery may not be perfect, but it is reasonable to expect that if the Celtics suck, they are going to get a good draft pick. Then, with proper scouting and good coaching and player development, the Celtics can ensure that they choose a building block player. It makes the Celtics a lot more responsible for the garnering of their talent then just praying that a talent decides to come to Boston.

 

[bowiac]

I like that the draft lottery is the choice that's takes the ball out of the team's hands less.

 

[Jer]

 
You piqued my interest but I cant figure this out.  According to this, the signing bonus % was reduced from 20% to 15%.  The Collison contract fell under the 20% limit, but according to this he got a $6.5M signing bonus on a 4 year $11M extension.  By my math the signing bonus was 60% which obviously exceeds the 20%   Somehow they found a loophole and without knowing what that is I wonder if its still open

 
I think the resigning bonus did survive the new CBA. It's somewhere around page 144.
 

 
...
A Team with a Team Salary below the Salary Cap may enter into an Extension that calls for or contains a signing bonus to be paid at any time during the Contract’s original or extended term.
...
In the event that, at the time of allocation, none of the Base Compensation provided for during the then-current and any remaining Salary Cap Years under the original term of the Contract or during the extended term is protected for lack of skill, then the entire amount of the signing bonus shall be allocated to the Salary Cap Year during which the Extension is signed
...

 
My lawyer speak sucks, but I read that to mean that a smarty pants GM can still pull this off.

 

[wutang112878]

 
Collison signed his extension under the old CBA.

 
 

 
I think the resigning bonus did survive the new CBA. It's somewhere around page 144.
 
 
My lawyer speak sucks, my I read that to mean that a smarty pants GM can still pull this off.

 
What I just cant figure out with the old CBA is the signing bonus limit.  According to the ESPN article, under the old CBA the signing bonus was limited at 20% of the contract and Collison's was way over that.  Basically they used some non standard spread the signing bonus technique to have Collison's cap number go from $13M for 1 year to ~$2M for 4 years

 

[wutang112878]

 
I guess it comes down to what style of rebuilding you prefer. I would really like to stay away from the "Land the big FA plan" because that takes the ball out of Boston's hands. The Celtics can try and make Boston seem as alluring as possible, but in the end, it will come down to the individual player choosing whether or not they want to play there or someone else. At least in the draft, it is pretty much entirely up to the Celtics as to what player they are going to get. Sure the lottery may not be perfect, but it is reasonable to expect that if the Celtics suck, they are going to get a good draft pick. Then, with proper scouting and good coaching and player development, the Celtics can ensure that they choose a building block player. It makes the Celtics a lot more responsible for the garnering of their talent then just praying that a talent decides to come to Boston.

 
Pick your poison.  On one hand you put your fate in the FA player and the risk is his preference.  On the lottery side the chance is on both the ping pong balls, the strength of the draft and how teams draft ahead of you.  You could have the best scouting and development in the world, but you might just be unlucky and never have the opportunity to draft a real impact player.

 

[mcpickl]

 
You piqued my interest but I cant figure this out.  According to this, the signing bonus % was reduced from 20% to 15%.  The Collison contract fell under the 20% limit, but according to this he got a $6.5M signing bonus on a 4 year $11M extension.  By my math the signing bonus was 60% which obviously exceeds the 20%   Somehow they found a loophole and without knowing what that is I wonder if its still open

They've tightened this up in the new CBA, and this is under renegotiated contracts.
 
Rules on this are:
 
can only be done by team under the cap
only for contracts that were at least 4 years in length and have completed at least 3 of them
has to include an extension
the first year salary in the extension has to be at least 60% of the newly renegotiated salary(so the Collison deal would now be illegal)
cannot be done with a contract you've just received in a trade
cannot be done with a rookie contract(eliminating Sullinger/Olynyk example)
 
got my details here
 
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q60

 

[Jer]

 
 
 
What I just cant figure out with the old CBA is the signing bonus limit.  According to the ESPN article, under the old CBA the signing bonus was limited at 20% of the contract and Collison's was way over that.  Basically they used some non standard spread the signing bonus technique to have Collison's cap number go from $13M for 1 year to ~$2M for 4 years

It might have more to do with the contract extension aspect. Where dollars from the existing contract count towards to total value of the new contract.
 
I think he kept extending his rookie contract, so the size kept growing.

 

[Brickowski]

They extended Anderson when they absolutely didn't have to.(It is possible to blow cap space on your own guys, see Douglas, Sherman) And while Knight's money seems small peanuts now, it was a max MLE deal in its day (i.e. the late 90s version of the Courtney Lee deal we all bitched about).

Well, if he had been below the cap he wouldn't have had the exception with which to sign Knight.  If your argument is that Pitino didn't have cap space because he stupidly spent the money elsewhere, we're in 100% agreement.  I'm simply saying that at no time in recent memory have the Celtics had enough cap space to woo a premium free agent.  

 

[wutang112878]

It might have more to do with the contract extension aspect. Where dollars from the existing contract count towards to total value of the new contract.
 
I think he kept extending his rookie contract, so the size kept growing.

 
Ah, that makes a lot of sense, thanks for pointing this out.
 
I've probably said this a thousand times but why couldnt the NBA have a simple salary cap setup like the NFL

 

[bowiac]

 
Ah, that makes a lot of sense, thanks for pointing this out.
 
I've probably said this a thousand times but why couldnt the NBA have a simple salary cap setup like the NFL

I personally love the NBA cap. It adds a whole level of hilarious intrigue.