Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game
- Thread starter Dogman
- Start date
There's something irritating about a fanbase that gets a gift-wrapped, huge, Free Agent acquisition and then bases their support of the team squarely because the team has that Free Agent.
"WE HAVE MANNING, WHO DO YOU HAVE? YOU SUCK!"
"Um, the same guy we've had for 12 years?"
"WE HAVE MANNING, WHO DO YOU HAVE? YOU SUCK!"
"Um, the same guy we've had for 12 years?"
drleather2001 said:
It was incredible how quickly the #15 jerseys disappeared around here in favor of the #18 jerseys. It's great that they have adopted Manning as their own and everything, but living here it's like he has played his whole career here or something.
Teams are rushing for 4.10 YPC against Denver when ahead or tied. League average is 3.98. As you might expect, the Broncos have faced the fewest rushes in that situation.Harry Hooper said:
The shape of the passing offense has definitely been affected post Gronk. Vereen has caught just 9 of 20 targets for 70 yards (albeit with 2 TDs) in the last 4 games. Boyce (with 42 yards) is the 4th-leading receiver. Collie's 5th with 42 yards, and he's played a total of 3 snaps the past 3 games. Dobson and Thompkins have combined for 2 catches for 27 yards on 10 targets. The TEs have combined for 3 catches for 28 yards on 7 targets. It's entirely the Edelman (35 catches on 50 targets for 365 yards) and Amendola (16 catches on 25 targets for 262 yards) show right now. Probably not a great matchup against a Denver team with 1.5 good corners.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
tims4wins said:
Please. The jerseys switched because the fans root for the laundry. Those are the type of fans you are supposed to like. The Broncos have a passionate, loyal fan base and have a sell out streak that goes back to 1970. Sure, they got lucky as hell to get Manning and dump Tebow, but the fans were there in full support even when Brian Griese was the QB. Red Sox fans adopted Curt Shilling pretty fast, too.
That's partly due to Dobson and Thompkins being banged up but it speaks to my larger concerns. Maybe its a failure of imagination, but I just don't see us having a ton of success going air-heavy when we can only put 2-3 legitimate targets into patterns out of a lot of our personnel groups (like 2 WR/2 TE sets with Hooman and Mulligan) and when adding more "legitimate" targets means relying on rookie WRs who really haven't been playing for over a month.Super Nomario said:
A thought I had been going over in my head in regards to JT. Does anybody else think that they would switch Talib over onto JT in the red zone? You could then give Talib JT 1-on-1 and have safety help on DT's side to guard against a fade. Where JT is a matchup nightmare is in the red zone as we know with having Gronk.
Fascinating piece from The Wall Street Journal on BB's use of prctice squad "clones" to prepare for an opponent's star players:
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304419104579322564133750866?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304419104579322564133750866.html
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304419104579322564133750866?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304419104579322564133750866.html
Mike Florio with a piece for PFT about the pats trip to the land of legal pot….. Why he even wrote this I have no clue…...
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/17/pats-prepare-for-first-trip-to-land-of-legal-pot/
soxhop411 said:
I know weed can affect judgement and all but nobody who has lived in the Northeast would buy that diarrhea fuel they call pizza.
If you build a stadium Roger gives you a SB; you legalize weed and the NFLPA gets you a Conference Championship game?
So Allen being questionable means he's 50-50 to play. But we haven't had any other punters in this week, so we therefore deduce that he's better than 50-50 and BB's trolling? Alternative is that BB is rolling the dice which seems unlikely.
I think Allen's back there on Sunday. As many have speculated, we don't risk #3 getting laid out by a block unless absolutely necessary.
I think Allen's back there on Sunday. As many have speculated, we don't risk #3 getting laid out by a block unless absolutely necessary.
I think people are subconsciously displacing their concern about the Broncos O onto the Broncos D so they don't have to sort through the problem that stopping the Offense will be really, really, hard.
It's kind of like having a 20 page paper and a 5 page paper both due tomorrow, and spending all night editing the 5 page paper because thinking about the other one is just too demoralizing.
I think it's a reality that stopping the Denver offense is impossible. The Patriots are not winning a 10-7 game Sunday. So it becomes a matter of "Am I more confident in the defense holding the Broncos under 25 or in the offense scoring over 25?" At that point, it's fair to wonder if the offense is a bigger concern.
To go with your analogy, it's like if the 20-page paper and the 5-pager are weighed the same in the final grade and you don't have enough time to do well on both of them. At that point, you gotta grind out the 20-pager and try to get a C+ on it and really focus on getting an A on the short paper.
So Percy Harvin will be out Sunday. No surprise. Both of these AFC participants should be hoping that the home field magic holds.
Fuck DVOA . I see a Sea team with no one catching the ball who should terrify you. And Greg Cossell, based on the last month of games, pronounces it's QB as no better than League average during that stretch.
Fuck DVOA . I see a Sea team with no one catching the ball who should terrify you. And Greg Cossell, based on the last month of games, pronounces it's QB as no better than League average during that stretch.
Statistics don't address how banged up the Patriot pass defense has been--now relatively healthy with two Pro Bowlers plus Dennard/Ryan/Arrington.
Of course Collins on J Thomas is yet to be seen, but I liked this defense against Manning a lot--and no statistical model could show it coming together.
Similarly, the rushing stats Wk 12, as has been mentioned, don't prove much with the safeties standing 15 yards back begging Manning to run.
Common opponent: against the Colts the Patriots held the run to 69 yards and Denver gave up 121 . Patriots added Siliga late: Denver lost Vickerson.
Of course Collins on J Thomas is yet to be seen, but I liked this defense against Manning a lot--and no statistical model could show it coming together.
Similarly, the rushing stats Wk 12, as has been mentioned, don't prove much with the safeties standing 15 yards back begging Manning to run.
Common opponent: against the Colts the Patriots held the run to 69 yards and Denver gave up 121 . Patriots added Siliga late: Denver lost Vickerson.
They don't address that we lost GRONK and they gained JT either. I like our chances, but this is a pick 'em between the best two teams in the conference. Pretty sweet as a fan.lambeau said:
Tony C said:
I think it's because I mostly live around a bunch of transplants who don't have roots here. True bandwagoners. In general though I agree, Denver has good football fans.
Super Nomario said:
I think the offense has to score at least 25 points to win the game. That is the average points allowed for the Broncos this season. Without any turnover help from the Broncos the Pats should be able to score 27 points. To me the question mark is on the defense holding the Broncos to, say, 24 points.
dcmissle said:
? DVOA has the Seahawks offense as a weighted +9% or so, which is just above league average. And a large part of that is their running game.
I don't think the Seahawks offense was ever scaring anyone. It's their defense, essentially the same as the one that dominated the Patriots last season, that's scary.
Does it also not have them as the best team ?Devizier said:
Well they are not right now, and away from home it's not particularly close . On a neutral field , they'd likely get destroyed by SF . I am putting my hope in Seattle's HFA to get them to NJ.
Well let me start, Crabtree is back, Kap is running more and whenever he needs to, Wilson has been playing like shit by his standards, and Seattle has no receiver to stretch the field and exploit SFs relative weakness on defense . Want to run Lynch into their front 7, make their day.
It is this dynamic which makes SF a substantially worse match up for the Pats, and why I am rooting for Sea
It is this dynamic which makes SF a substantially worse match up for the Pats, and why I am rooting for Sea
Tedy Bruschi on drive-time ESPN radio tonite:
--I want to see the Logan Mankins who knocked over Pot Roast and then at the whistle went on to level Trevethan like he did in Wk 12--that's the Mankins I want to see
--This year if you have six in the box Manning will hand it off--he didn't used to be that way
--I want to see the Logan Mankins who knocked over Pot Roast and then at the whistle went on to level Trevethan like he did in Wk 12--that's the Mankins I want to see
--This year if you have six in the box Manning will hand it off--he didn't used to be that way
dcmissle said:
Given that they played not too many weeks ago on SF's field and the game was basically a coin flip, it's hard to see how the Seahawks would be "destroyed" on a neutral field. I've soured some on Seattle, too, with Rice and Harvin not in the game, especially. But there's not a chance in the world with that defense they get destroyed on any field. If any team has shown a propensity for getting destroyed in this rivalry, it's the 49ers and they way they've performed their last two visits in the same stadium where this game will be played.
Yeah too much recency bias arguing SF is vastly superior, not enough accounting for game to game variability IMO. Maybe it's like 52/48 SF or something but those two teams are real close.
It was just a short month ago that the pats shouldn't even show up for the Super Bowl against Seattle. That was an overstatement, but the Seattle team isn't that much different now.
It was just a short month ago that the pats shouldn't even show up for the Super Bowl against Seattle. That was an overstatement, but the Seattle team isn't that much different now.
But recency bias tends to get you a fair way this time of year, no? I think the absence of appropriate recency bias has misled a lot of people into underestimating the Pats' chances.
Consider this too. A SF victory would have them entering the SB with consecutive road wins at GB, Car and Sea.
A point in Sea's favor. If they get past this, Wilson has a couple of weeks to fix things and maybe, just maybe, they get Harvin back.
As for the goal above of the Pats holding
Denver to 24, yeah I'd take that. Now. Which makes game thread bitching about the quality of San Diego's defensive effort pretty humorous.
Consider this too. A SF victory would have them entering the SB with consecutive road wins at GB, Car and Sea.
A point in Sea's favor. If they get past this, Wilson has a couple of weeks to fix things and maybe, just maybe, they get Harvin back.
As for the goal above of the Pats holding
Denver to 24, yeah I'd take that. Now. Which makes game thread bitching about the quality of San Diego's defensive effort pretty humorous.
The always-excellent Greg Bedard with a primer on pick plays and what is and is not illegal:
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/15/new-england-patriots-denver-broncos-afc-championship-game-pick-plays/
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/15/new-england-patriots-denver-broncos-afc-championship-game-pick-plays/
Joe Montana agrees with dcmissle: "The Patriots are coming around; it's hard now to bet against Tom."
It does, except when it doesn't. 2010 Pats say hi - that team kicked it into high gear after the loss to Cleveland, and the defense was also exceptional for its final five games. Last year the Ravens lost four of their last five regular season games...going into the Championship would you really consider them on a run? Maybe the 2011 Giants are a good example but I agree you're putting way too much weight on Seattle's last few games.dcmissle said:
86spike said:
Yes this was excellent, I had no idea that picks are legal within 1yd of LOS at all times. This article probably saved me from screaming several times tomorrow. I'm sure there will still be some grey area picks that piss me off but at least I'm a little more educated on this now.
Wrote this on the other thread but it probably seems more appropriate here.
One of the things that's becoming kind of clear in all the coverage of this matchup is that Peyton is kind of a sentimental favorite at this point in his career. There's a hint now of the autumnal in things you're reading – the whispers that he might get another look at his neck in the offseason which spell the end of it all. There's also a sense that Manning's pedestrian championship pedigree is legitimately and perhaps unfairly diminishing his legacy.
None of which is to say I don't want him to lose. And it's been refreshing to see so many people, from Cowher to LaDanian Tomlinson of all people, have so many complimentary things to say about Brady, BB and the Pats these last few weeks.
But given his otherworldly career and how much people seem to like him personally (the letters, "Tom will probably break it again next year," etc.), much like Elway in 1998 (and Peyton himself in 2006), you really do get the sense that the vast majority of people are pulling for Manning this time around.
Stomp his ass anyways.
One of the things that's becoming kind of clear in all the coverage of this matchup is that Peyton is kind of a sentimental favorite at this point in his career. There's a hint now of the autumnal in things you're reading – the whispers that he might get another look at his neck in the offseason which spell the end of it all. There's also a sense that Manning's pedestrian championship pedigree is legitimately and perhaps unfairly diminishing his legacy.
None of which is to say I don't want him to lose. And it's been refreshing to see so many people, from Cowher to LaDanian Tomlinson of all people, have so many complimentary things to say about Brady, BB and the Pats these last few weeks.
But given his otherworldly career and how much people seem to like him personally (the letters, "Tom will probably break it again next year," etc.), much like Elway in 1998 (and Peyton himself in 2006), you really do get the sense that the vast majority of people are pulling for Manning this time around.
Stomp his ass anyways.
Just for fun, Simmons had an interesting letter in his email bag this week: http://grantland.com/features/that-championship-mailbag-2/
Go about 80% of the way down the article, and you'll see a table. An emailer writes:
"In baseball, specifically Moneyball, they learned that a walk is as good as a hit. ”He gets on Base!” We have not learned that in football. I am admittedly a Peyton Manning fan, and I get sick of hearing about his miserable playoff record. So I thought — why is not making the playoffs at all almost better for a QBs legacy than losing in Round 2 after going 13-3? Earning a first round bye should be considered just as good as winning a wild-card game — the result is the same. And not making the playoffs should be just considered just as bad as losing a wild-card or any other playoff game. Better to have loved and lost right? Ok, so when you figure missed playoffs and first round byes as losses and wins respectively, you get a TRUE PLAYOFF WIN percentage."
And the chart has Brady at #1: 18-7 playoff wins, 7 "wins" for getting a bye, 1 "loss" for not making the playoffs (he doesn't count any QB season where they played fewer than 8 games), giving him a 25-8 true playoff record and a .758 true playoff winning percentage.
Montana is second at 24-9 (.727), and Peyton is 11th at 16-13 (10-11, 6 byes, 2 misses, for a .552 percentage).
Go about 80% of the way down the article, and you'll see a table. An emailer writes:
"In baseball, specifically Moneyball, they learned that a walk is as good as a hit. ”He gets on Base!” We have not learned that in football. I am admittedly a Peyton Manning fan, and I get sick of hearing about his miserable playoff record. So I thought — why is not making the playoffs at all almost better for a QBs legacy than losing in Round 2 after going 13-3? Earning a first round bye should be considered just as good as winning a wild-card game — the result is the same. And not making the playoffs should be just considered just as bad as losing a wild-card or any other playoff game. Better to have loved and lost right? Ok, so when you figure missed playoffs and first round byes as losses and wins respectively, you get a TRUE PLAYOFF WIN percentage."
And the chart has Brady at #1: 18-7 playoff wins, 7 "wins" for getting a bye, 1 "loss" for not making the playoffs (he doesn't count any QB season where they played fewer than 8 games), giving him a 25-8 true playoff record and a .758 true playoff winning percentage.
Montana is second at 24-9 (.727), and Peyton is 11th at 16-13 (10-11, 6 byes, 2 misses, for a .552 percentage).
j44thor said:
I think the bigger take away from the picks piece is how refs determine if offensive PI should be called. Essentially, if the offensive player, wherever he is in the defensive backfield, does not initiate contact on a play then he will not be called for OPI.
The interesting thing about Manning and the playoffs is how much of his playoff record hasn't even been his fault. The guy has legitimately been one of the unluckiest QBs in a playoff environment, consistently getting hosed by factors ranging from unlucky to downright bizarre.
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/peyton-mannings-9-11-playoff-record-is-call-for-help/20868/ - Decent piece on it.
Really, you can sum up Manning's playoff luck with one play in particular:
http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/peyton-mannings-9-11-playoff-record-is-call-for-help/20868/ - Decent piece on it.
Really, you can sum up Manning's playoff luck with one play in particular:
Haven't seen this posted: Bruschi and Reiss talk about the AFC Championship: http://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story?storyId=10309203&city=boston
A lot of really great info, including how Bruschi never felt the pressure of AFC Championship games because the level of preparation and focus under Belichick is so high for the entire year that it feels like any other week.
Also, Tedy thinks the key matchup will be the Pats defensive front vs. the Broncos offensive line, specifically Siliga/Vellano/Jones vs. Manny Ramirez.
A lot of really great info, including how Bruschi never felt the pressure of AFC Championship games because the level of preparation and focus under Belichick is so high for the entire year that it feels like any other week.
Also, Tedy thinks the key matchup will be the Pats defensive front vs. the Broncos offensive line, specifically Siliga/Vellano/Jones vs. Manny Ramirez.
I was at that Jets 41-0 curbstomping of Manning's Colts in Jan '03. The Colts had ten first downs the entire game and the Jets TOP was something like 41 minutes. Amazing. The Herm Edwards era seems like a lifetime ago now.
Manning's team has been favored in 16 of their 20 playoff games, 11 times by 5 points or more. He has an 8 - 8 record in playoff games when he is favored, and is 6 -5 in games when he is favored by 5 or more.