Stitch01 said:
The only way they score only 20 points is either Brady blows or Ridley decides to return to his earlier form. Either could happen, but I doubt it.
Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game
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The only way they score only 20 points is either Brady blows or Ridley decides to return to his earlier form. Either could happen, but I doubt it.
NE will score, they were third in points scored in 2013. Denver's offense is epic and the Broncos should be favored but let's not forget they played the NFC East and the AFC South to fatten their scoring numbers up.
I am puzzled by the assumption that John Fox is capable of scheming a D that can actually "take away" one or two things they can do well. They are pretty banged up on that side of the ball, and weren't that good even when healthy.
I think they can run on Denver. Vickerson isn't playing because Svitek knocked him back on his ass during the 3rd quarter surge and dislocated his hip.
I think Mankiins will manhandle Williams opening holes for Blount on the left side.And they will move the chains with short crossing routes.
Edelman, Vereen,and Amendola alone had 20 receptions Wk 12, mostly short routes that were impossible to defend and could be run from 2 TE sets.
I think Mankiins will manhandle Williams opening holes for Blount on the left side.And they will move the chains with short crossing routes.
Edelman, Vereen,and Amendola alone had 20 receptions Wk 12, mostly short routes that were impossible to defend and could be run from 2 TE sets.
H78 said:
Here's my bold prediction and I've actually been thinking about it all week:
Brady will go back to Vereen on this play and they'll connect. 40+ yard reception where he gets knocked out inside the 10.
drleather2001 said:Hm.
This map is also quite deceiving because it only compares fans of either the Patriots or Broncos in those areas. It doesn't say if your a fan of the other 30 teams, 25 or so who probably hate the Patriots.
BigSoxFan said:
Brady also threw 3 INT's in the AFC Championship game, which for Brady is a pretty shitty game. I'm not looking at the Super Bowl. That game never happened.
In those seven games, Brady is 171-of-235 passing (73 percent) for 1,771 yards, 17 touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s a passer rating of 121.1 against Del Rio, which must give him nightmares.DrewDawg said:
Right. I think there's two things at play:BigSoxFan said:
1) A single game's worth of ~12 possessions is an inherently small sample size. A few dropped passes and/or turnovers can dramatically change the number of points scored.
2) As you imply, by January every opponent is by definition one of the best teams in the league.
Then again, the oddly mild weather could contribute to more scoring.
Overall, given the Patriots season and their overwhelming percentage of close games, combined with the relative evenness of these two teams, I think this is going to be a thrilling game deep into the 4th Quarter, and wouldn't be surprised to see another OT. Also, I think there could be a flurry of scoring late as the defenses tire.
I'll say 30-27 Pats in OT.
bakahump said:
I think you may under-estimate how often Edelman lines up wide. That would be understandable, because the slot receiver tag gets put on a guy and then that's how a guy is discussed; a quick google search for Edelman wide had mascho's September posts on the passing game as the fourth image hit. Now, that was an awesome post, but this is a message board and that sorta underscores how not often it is discussed.
DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
They make maps for all of the above, starting with general fandom and then they generate new maps for each round of the layoffs based on which teams are still standing.
So I'm going off of a few hours sleep at the office for the 20 millionth day in a row and all of a sudden it comes to me... 34-20 Pats. They were leading 27-20 with 4 minutes to go and score another TD with 1:19 left. Manning gets to the NE 40 with 35 seconds to go and throws an interception. Game over. Hallucination and/or prophecy? I'm getting delirious and it's only 1:00pm.
And the other factor is the number of possessions. In both Super Bowls against the Giants, the Pats only had 8 possessions prior to New York's game-winning drives; that's a major factor in the low scoring output for those games. I won't be surprised if the Pats score just 20 points if it's a game where they only get 9 possessions. I will be surprised if they score just 20 in a game where they get 12 or 13.dynomite said:
Predictions are a silly but fun game, but I will say the Broncos crappy D holding the Pats to 20 points strikes me as absurdly pessimistic. But..we'll see. I frankly see this as much more of a shoot-out. I think we're dreaming if we think we can shut down Manning, just as I think it's silly that a team against which we moved the ball at will mid-season in lousy conditions will now be able to hold down the Pats in perfect conditions and with the loss of their best LB, d-line guy, CB, and safety (which more than cancels out the loss of Gronk, especially given how Blount has emerged).
My guess is both teams score in the 30s. I think Brady will have big day and I do agree with whomever said that the Pats should be able to play run and stack the middle of the field and take their chances with Manning going to the sidelines, accounting for a few stops.
I'll say Pats 37-Broncos 30.
My guess is both teams score in the 30s. I think Brady will have big day and I do agree with whomever said that the Pats should be able to play run and stack the middle of the field and take their chances with Manning going to the sidelines, accounting for a few stops.
I'll say Pats 37-Broncos 30.
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MarcSullivaFan said:
Initially, that was hilarious. Then, it was informative. Great read, thanks for the link. This is worth considering when imagining BB's tactical planning:
Sunday we're going to see whether Air Brady throwing to a replacement-level WR corps can actually beat a first-class team. Belichick is playing with house money, and I fully expect a bunch of trick plays, going for it on 4th down, bizarre misdirection that fools the cameraman, a fake punt, maybe a return to "#50 Vrabel: Eligible"... I expect him to essentially troll the entire viewership with an attitude of "let's see if this works!". It very well may, but I'm sure not betting on either side of this one.
edit: he also makes good points about why our 2nd-half defensive success in Week 12 may have been anomalous: DRC, of course, notably ruined himself trying to catch a hail-mary right before halftime, J. Thomas didn't play, and we also had a fully healthy Aqib Talib shutting down D. Thomas, and Spikes in run defense, none of which will be true on Sunday. Basically, if we shit ourselves for a quarter or two again, the odds of getting bailed out like in week 12 are infinitesimal - we need a strong start.
Can't believe how much negative predictions I am seeing for this game, not just on this board but in general from the media. Fuck all of that. We are playing Peyton Manning, the divine king of losing playoff games at home, and we have Tom fucking Brady leading our team.
Pats 34, Broncos 24
Pats 34, Broncos 24
I don't think Edelman and Amendola are replacement-level players, but they certainly don't have a lot of reliable depth at the position.
Personally, I think what really hurts them is having non-factors at the TE position. Almost every single good passing offense in the NFL has a receiving threat at TE.
Personally, I think what really hurts them is having non-factors at the TE position. Almost every single good passing offense in the NFL has a receiving threat at TE.
Almost everyone is picking a 1 score game. I honestly think the winning team wins by 2+ scores. I am leaning something like Patriots 38 Denver 27, but could easily see it the other way.
I fear being up by fewer than 7 points with Denver having the ball with plenty of time to score. I think the defense can do enough over the course of the game to slow down the Bronco offense enough, but I just do not trust them to be able to stop the Broncos in a "score or go home" drive with like 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter. I wish I did, but I don't. Really hope it doesn't come down to that but I'll be drinking heavily throughout just in case it does.
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Mystic Merlin said:
Collectively, our ball catchers are replacement-level, is what I'm saying. We have one high-quality talent (Amendola), one dirt-doggin' overperformer, and a bunch of guys who wouldn't make Denver's practice squad, nevermind most teams' rosters. Hooman was nearly off the roster last year; this Sunday, he's our #1 tight end, and it's not because he's improved dramatically. etc etc. There are plenty of reasons for optimism, but I see our pass offense as being a reason to expect a hilariously bonkers game plan - because what the fuck, we shouldn't even be here anyway.
Paul Perillo @pfwpaul1m
Pats list Beauharnais (illness) as out with Dobson, Thompkins and Ryan Allen all questionable for Sunday
1 inactive down, 6 to go.
Pats list Beauharnais (illness) as out with Dobson, Thompkins and Ryan Allen all questionable for Sunday
1 inactive down, 6 to go.
Ralphwiggum said:
I also would kill for being down by fewer than 7 points with the ball in Brady's hands with 2:15 left.
DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
having 4 downs to work with is just an enormous advantage, be it in the hands of Manning or Brady. I think everyone is right that down two points but with the ball and two minutes to go is a winning situation for either team.
Here's the full injury report.
http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/the_blitz/2014/01/steve_beauharnais_ruled_out_aaron_dobson_kenbrell_thompkins
I see the Pats moving the ball at will. The big question will be Red Zone conversion rates. Score TD's and win in a rout. Settle for FG's and likely lose.
I can't see Denver stopping the Pats on offense especially if the Pats can effectively, either by design or by audible, choose plays that take advantage of Denver's substitution-reliant defense.
One thing that I haven't seen mentioned much anywhere is what good run blockers the Pats wideouts are, even Amendola and Edelman. I think that that skill set plays very well for the Pats to gain big yards running from 3 wideout sets.
I can't see Denver stopping the Pats on offense especially if the Pats can effectively, either by design or by audible, choose plays that take advantage of Denver's substitution-reliant defense.
One thing that I haven't seen mentioned much anywhere is what good run blockers the Pats wideouts are, even Amendola and Edelman. I think that that skill set plays very well for the Pats to gain big yards running from 3 wideout sets.
Mystic Merlin said:
Good point, maybe Vereen will do some lining up as a TE?
My question is how good is Denver's run defense straight-up, as in when it's facing a team that's either ahead or even on the scoreboard and not forced to pass almost all the time.
Noticed this piece when I was looking for the "experts" picks for the game.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/10300335/what-peyton-manning-tom-brady-had-traded-places
This picture is disturbing......
Not so much Brady....but damn does Manning look weird in that Pats uni.....prob just his massive head.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/10300335/what-peyton-manning-tom-brady-had-traded-places
This picture is disturbing......
Not so much Brady....but damn does Manning look weird in that Pats uni.....prob just his massive head.
Bucknahs Bum Ankle said:
Ha! That's my county, too!
However, I'm not on Facebook, so I cannot take credit.
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What do you guys think about the Pats' record on the road this season?
I haven't seen a lot of discussion of what has caused those struggles this week. Any thoughts on how that might play into Sunday?
I haven't seen a lot of discussion of what has caused those struggles this week. Any thoughts on how that might play into Sunday?
MarcSullivaFan said:
One of the bedrock ideas here from FO seems to be that the Patriots' passing offense hasn't really fallen off post-Gronk, which is part of the justification for saying that we should throw a lot against Denver.
This is one of those weird areas where the DVOA formula matters quite a bit, because if the passing offense hasn't fallen off according to DVOA, that's almost entirely due to opponent adjustments. From an unadjusted statistical standpoint, our passing offense has been pretty mediocre since Gronk went down. But we played defenses ranked #2, #9, #12, and #13 against the pass in that stretch.
I guess it comes down to how much you really think our performance throwing the ball in recent weeks can be chaulked up to those opponents. Despite what DVOA says, I reamin skeptical of the idea that the current post-Gronk incarnation of our offense wants to get into a pass-heavy shootout with this Denver team.
86spike said:
They lost by 7, 3, 4, and 4 points in their road losses.
They won by 2, 7, 3 and 34 points on the road.
I dunno if that tells us much of anything, particularly because 2 or 3 of those games could have gone the other way (Carolina in particular).
86spike said:
1.) Cincy was a terrific home team this season, and a good team period.
2.) Carolina was one of the top 5-7 teams in the league.
3.) They played a poor second half against the Jets, then the penalty that was not called before and never called since popped up.
They played a lot of close games this season, even against mediocre or bad teams, and a few of those one-possession games went against them. Whether Danny Amendola didn't hang on to a last-second TD against Miami because the game wasn't at home, I couldn't say.
So, to answer your question: I think the Pats' home v. road split is misleading if you don't look closely at the games themselves. They could easily be 6-2 at home and 6-2 on the road, for instance. Denver having homefield is obviously an advantage, but I would disagree that it's somehow more pronounced with the Patriots coming to town.
Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I was just going to say the same thing. They easily could have lost the Bronco and Saints games at home and won the Miami and/or Carolina and/or Jets games on the road and had the same record.
Doubt it will be much of a factor beyond the typical fact that playing in the NFL on the road is hard and Denver has a pretty good HFA. Losses were to the Jets and Bengals in the first half of the season, when the Pats were struggling at home and one the road. Pats actually played really well in Carolina. They didnt get blown out on the road all year. Havent seen anything to suggest abnormal struggles on the road.86spike said:
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To add on, the only team that really handled the Pats on the road was Cincy. The Pats were comically unhealthy on offense for that game - no Gronk, Amendola, or Vereen. Two of those guys are back now. Even with how Cincy handled the Pats, the Pats failed to score on a 4th and goal in that game, and also had the ball down 7 with a quasi-realistic shot to win (only thing that made it impossible was the rain).
My bad
Edit: also, they weren't stopped on 4th and goal from the 1. It was 3rd and goal. They settled for 3.
Edit: also, they weren't stopped on 4th and goal from the 1. It was 3rd and goal. They settled for 3.
Julius Thomas scares me. Collins has his work cut out for him, especially if they plan on using him to bring pressure. My guess is that Talib and Dennard/Ryan gets singled up on DT and Decker, with Arrington on Welker, and roving safety help from play to play.
This game can't start soon enough. My coworker brought in Peyton Manning cookies that said, "Got Manning". I took one just to throw it away because I am a petty, petty man.
This game can't start soon enough. My coworker brought in Peyton Manning cookies that said, "Got Manning". I took one just to throw it away because I am a petty, petty man.