BP's Top 100 Prospects List

[DGreenwood]

Link
It's actually top 101.
 
2.   Bogaerts
23. Bradley
51. Cecchini
64. Barnes
69. Owens
73. Swihart

 

[Wingack]

Five shortstops in the top seven.

 

[Hoplite]

Five shortstops in the top seven.

 
I think it's understandable given not only who the prospects are, but also how important the position is. I think top 100 prospect lists overall are stronger than in years past, this seems like an above average group.

 

[pokey_reese]

Pretty great diversity from the Sox group:
 
1 OF
1 SS
1 3B
1 LHP
1 RHP
1 C
 
Only teams with more players on the list than the Red Sox were the Cubs, Royals, Pirates, and Rangers with 7 each, and the Twins with 8.  However, the Twins were the only team with more players in the top 75, which speaks to the high-end talent in our system right now.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

Yankees with one player and he's at #85. 

 

[Paradigm]

Yankees with one player and he's at #85. 

 
It's really going to sink them for the next few years. What happens when someone gets hurt? Who do you call up when a pitcher hits the DL with a lat strain? Who do you trade mid-season to pick up an extra bat when every other team can offer better talent?
 
If Lackey or Lester hit the DL with some kind of 30-day injury, look at the options: Barnes, Webster, Ranuado. You can reasonably expect those guys to step in and perform.
 
It'll take a few years to rebuild the farm, and they'll be able to do it through the draft, but that's another reason why I see this as the Sox window: the lack of depth is going to really hurt the Yankees, and to some extent Tampa as well unless they make a few trades to restock. Their talent is quite far off.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

 
It's really going to sink them for the next few years. What happens when someone gets hurt? Who do you call up when a pitcher hits the DL with a lat strain? Who do you trade mid-season to pick up an extra bat when every other team can offer better talent?
 
If Lackey or Lester hit the DL with some kind of 30-day injury, look at the options: Barnes, Webster, Ranuado. You can reasonably expect those guys to step in and perform.
 
It'll take a few years to rebuild the farm, and they'll be able to do it through the draft, but that's another reason why I see this as the Sox window: the lack of depth is going to really hurt the Yankees, and to some extent Tampa as well unless they make a few trades to restock. Their talent is quite far off.

 
Will they? Every few years they more or less punt an entire draft by signing multiple free agents, and in the years they don't their drafts have routinely been terrible for any number of reasons. Even when it seems like they've hit on a few picks, the players plateau at a certain point and don't make the leap. The only major league contributors the Yankees have consistently been able to pull out of the draft are bullpen arms, and that was before the new draft rules made it tougher for teams to splurge.
 
The 2011 draft is a nice example. By the time the Yankees finally made their first pick at #51, the Red Sox had already drafted Barnes, Swihart, Owens, and Bradley. Just for fun, that pick was Dante Bichette, who just repeated Low-A and almost impossibly declined from a .653 OPS to .623.
 
One way the Yankees' farm system is similar to the Red Sox is that it's basically never replenished through trades involving major league players for prospects. They're always trying to compete and improve now now now and the firesale never happens; the bloated contracts would make it tough anyway. This isn't really a problem on its own (it hasn't harmed the RS development machine) but combined with the other significant deficiencies in the way the Yankees approach the farm system, it's just another nail in the coffin.
 
The next draft will be another nice example. By the time the second round is over, the Red Sox will have added three or four new prospects (pending the Drew situation) and the Yankees will have added one (at #56, unless they go ahead and sign Santana or Jimenez). The org. just isn't built to take advantage of the draft.

 

[Paradigm]

Those are all good points. You're probably right that they won't be able to rebuild quickly, but it should improve over time. They may also pick up a few picks by extending qualifying offers to David Robertson and Brett Gardner. Regardless, they will probably stay lumped in the middle of the pack for a long time.
 
Also, the Red Sox farm system will never be this highly rated again. They can't go over slot anymore, and I really doubt they'll pick in the first-half of the draft for a long time. The team's just too good as currently structured. Unless Rafael Devers turns into a superstar, then I'll eat my words.

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

 I've heard that the Yankees are planning on restocking (at least to some degree) their system by spending a bunch international players this year, penalties be damned. 
 
 Maybe that would be a good move for them, as it does seem like their drafts have not been very fruitful over the past several years.
 
 My quick google search to find support about the existence of this rumor didn't turn up much, except this guy at Pinstripe Alley has also apparently heard the rumor: http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-prospects-minor-leagues/2014/1/23/5332302/yankees-prospects-farm-system-draft-scouting

 

[Hoplite]

 I've heard that the Yankees are planning on restocking (at least to some degree) their system by spending a bunch international players this year, penalties be damned. 
 
 Maybe that would be a good move for them, as it does seem like their drafts have not been very fruitful over the past several years.
 
 My quick google search to find support about the existence of this rumor didn't turn up much, except this guy at Pinstripe Alley has also apparently heard the rumor: http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-prospects-minor-leagues/2014/1/23/5332302/yankees-prospects-farm-system-draft-scouting

 
Brilliant plan. They've done so well with drafting high school players like Cito Culver and Slade Heathcott. Why not spend even more money to go even younger?

 

[jkshute]

 
Will they? Every few years they more or less punt an entire draft by signing multiple free agents, and in the years they don't their drafts have routinely been terrible for any number of reasons. Even when it seems like they've hit on a few picks, the players plateau at a certain point and don't make the leap. The only major league contributors the Yankees have consistently been able to pull out of the draft are bullpen arms, and that was before the new draft rules made it tougher for teams to splurge.
 
The 2011 draft is a nice example. By the time the Yankees finally made their first pick at #51, the Red Sox had already drafted Barnes, Swihart, Owens, and Bradley. Just for fun, that pick was Dante Bichette, who just repeated Low-A and almost impossibly declined from a .653 OPS to .623.
 
One way the Yankees' farm system is similar to the Red Sox is that it's basically never replenished through trades involving major league players for prospects. They're always trying to compete and improve now now now and the firesale never happens; the bloated contracts would make it tough anyway. This isn't really a problem on its own (it hasn't harmed the RS development machine) but combined with the other significant deficiencies in the way the Yankees approach the farm system, it's just another nail in the coffin.
 
The next draft will be another nice example. By the time the second round is over, the Red Sox will have added three or four new prospects (pending the Drew situation) and the Yankees will have added one (at #56, unless they go ahead and sign Santana or Jimenez). The org. just isn't built to take advantage of the draft.

Generally you're right about the Sox not trading ML players for prospects, but 1) Nick Punto says "Hello. " , and 2) one could view a situation like Ellsbury leaving and the Sox getting a pick as a type of trade. 

 

[SydneySox]

Hey now, they signed the next Grant Balfour...
 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/melbourne-teenage-pitcher-brandon-stenhouse-signs-with-new-york-yankees/story-e6frg7mf-1226812949570

 

[LondonSox]

No Mookie. Seems like a guy some people need to see more from and others are already sold.
If he has another solid/ good year next year at AA etc that uncertainty will vanish.

 

[RetractableRoof]

 
It's really going to sink them for the next few years. What happens when someone gets hurt? Who do you call up when a pitcher hits the DL with a lat strain? Who do you trade mid-season to pick up an extra bat when every other team can offer better talent?
 
If Lackey or Lester hit the DL with some kind of 30-day injury, look at the options: Barnes, Webster, Ranuado. You can reasonably expect those guys to step in and perform.
 
It'll take a few years to rebuild the farm, and they'll be able to do it through the draft, but that's another reason why I see this as the Sox window: the lack of depth is going to really hurt the Yankees, and to some extent Tampa as well unless they make a few trades to restock. Their talent is quite far off.

In addition to the other comments on your post one thing to consider is in the new financial climate there always seems to be a major league replacement available who is either coming off major injury, or over the hill, or a AAAA they can buy/rent for the time needed.  And as it happens those players often play over their heads in the short term - or at least seem to come up with key hits.  Guys like Overbay, Wells, Youk for example.  They don't have to worry about a thin farm system when they take that approach as well.  That's not to say I think it is a solid strategy but they do seem to get more mileage out of it than would seem productive as well.

 

[Drek717]

 I've heard that the Yankees are planning on restocking (at least to some degree) their system by spending a bunch international players this year, penalties be damned. 
 
 Maybe that would be a good move for them, as it does seem like their drafts have not been very fruitful over the past several years.
 
 My quick google search to find support about the existence of this rumor didn't turn up much, except this guy at Pinstripe Alley has also apparently heard the rumor: http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-prospects-minor-leagues/2014/1/23/5332302/yankees-prospects-farm-system-draft-scouting

Isn't part of the new international signing rules a per year cap on each team, where if they exceed it they can't sign anyone for over a comparatively modest sum the next year?
 
Going HAM this year would make sense if they knew that this year was rife with elite talent, that they could buy the lion's share of elite talent, and that they wouldn't regret having to basically sit out the entire next year.  I have a hard time thinking any organization believes they can predict the signing of international teenagers with that much accuracy.

 

[MrDaniel]

Isn't part of the new international signing rules a per year cap on each team, where if they exceed it they can't sign anyone for over a comparatively modest sum the next year?
 
Going HAM this year would make sense if they knew that this year was rife with elite talent, that they could buy the lion's share of elite talent, and that they wouldn't regret having to basically sit out the entire next year.  I have a hard time thinking any organization believes they can predict the signing of international teenagers with that much accuracy.

 
I think the idea of blowing past the cap is you can get more than two years worth of talent out of a single year.  There is clearly more than twice a singles team's yearly haul available each year. 

 

[ALiveH]

so therefore the sox should blow past the cap next year when the MFYs won't be in there bidding with them.

 

[Doctor G]

 I've heard that the Yankees are planning on restocking (at least to some degree) their system by spending a bunch international players this year, penalties be damned. 
 
 Maybe that would be a good move for them, as it does seem like their drafts have not been very fruitful over the past several years.
 
 My quick google search to find support about the existence of this rumor didn't turn up much, except this guy at Pinstripe Alley has also apparently heard the rumor: http://www.pinstripealley.com/yankees-prospects-minor-leagues/2014/1/23/5332302/yankees-prospects-farm-system-draft-scouting

 overspending on intl free agents in the past has resulted in creating a sense of entitlement in very young players that has not helped their development but I'm quessing has been a detriment to team chemistry on low minors teams. Both gary sanchez and Jesus Montero have been recent examples of this. 

 

[alwyn96]

 overspending on intl free agents in the past has resulted in creating a sense of entitlement in very young players that has not helped their development but I'm quessing has been a detriment to team chemistry on low minors teams. Both gary sanchez and Jesus Montero have been recent examples of this. 

 
I doubt it's that big a problem. Jose Iglesias got more than both of those guys combined. What Sanchez and Montero got is comparable to a 1st/2nd rounder, and Montero's development was going just fine until he went to Seattle. 

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

 overspending on intl free agents in the past has resulted in creating a sense of entitlement in very young players that has not helped their development but I'm quessing has been a detriment to team chemistry on low minors teams. Both gary sanchez and Jesus Montero have been recent examples of this. 

So... never give any amateur a signing bonus over 1.6 million? What?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Not sure where to put this but do members still do the top 10-20 Sox list like it did in the past?

 

[caminante11]

Red Sox are fourth on BP's Organizational Rankings, behind only Twins, Cubs and Pirates.  Yankees are 23rd, Rays are 26th.
 
Looks like the article is not protected:
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22906

 

[nvalvo]

Those writeups contain an assessment of each system's trajectory for 2015, of which six are "down," four are "steady," and the remaining 20 are "up."
 
Hmm...

 

[Hoplite]

Those writeups contain an assessment of each system's trajectory for 2015, of which six are "down," four are "steady," and the remaining 20 are "up."
 
Hmm...

 
Is that really contradictory? There's no set value for how good a the 25th best farm system is. Farm systems overall could improve next year.

 

[snowmanny]

 
Is that really contradictory? There's no set value for how good a the 25th best farm system is. Farm systems overall could improve next year.

Your point would make more sense if it was about mutual funds.  Baseball is a zero-sum game. The value of a farm system is always relative to the value of the other farm systems.

 

[nighthob]

Yeah, I think it's based more on overall performance than strict placement in a ranking. Both the Twins and Sox have multiple guys moving to the majors so their receiving a down rating is perfectly understandable.

 

[OttoC]

Your point would make more sense if it was about mutual funds.  Baseball is a zero-sum game. The value of a farm system is always relative to the value of the other farm systems.

 
Isn't the value of a farm system what it is worth to the parent club in terms of how well it can fill holes either by bringing up players or by using surplus as parts of trades to fill holes?
 
Actually, I find this whole thing about the Top-100 or a club's Top-20 (or 30) to be a bit silly. In 2013, there were 155 batters who made their debuts and 198 pitchers. In the case of the batters, only 15.4% had at least 300 PA and 27.1% had as many as 200 PA. For pitchers, 70% of them had less than 50 IP. This does not work out to a lot of players per team who come up and make a mark. Lots of cups of coffee.

 

[Hoplite]

Your point would make more sense if it was about mutual funds.  Baseball is a zero-sum game. The value of a farm system is always relative to the value of the other farm systems.

 
Really? I always thought the value of a farm system was it's ability to produce major league talent.

 

[touchstone033]

Those writeups contain an assessment of each system's trajectory for 2015, of which six are "down," four are "steady," and the remaining 20 are "up."
 
Hmm...

It's entirely possible, say, for just one team to move down and 29 to move up -- if a team falls from first to last. It is a zero-sum equation, but "up" and "down" aren't values, just direction.

That said, I noticed the same damn thing! I don't think the perfesser gave it much thought. Sometimes I get the feeling he regards the whole exercise of ranking prospects and orgs as more than a chore, I think he sees it as irrational and vainglorious.

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

It's entirely possible, say, for just one team to move down and 29 to move up -- if a team falls from first to last. It is a zero-sum equation, but "up" and "down" aren't values, just direction.

That said, I noticed the same damn thing! I don't think the perfesser gave it much thought. Sometimes I get the feeling he regards the whole exercise of ranking prospects and orgs as more than a chore, I think he sees it as irrational and vainglorious.

 
Parks acknowledged this in a recent chat, essentially saying that he preferred to be optimistic and besides, spring is the time for optimism (or something to that effect).  BP's post today, ranking of organizations by U-25 talent, had a similar feel, with teams well into the teens garnering remarks about their 'strong collection of talent'. 
 
I'm on board with optimism being more fun then pessimism (or even realism)!