BOS bullpen 2018

Jerry’s Curl

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Meh, Smith was pitching better of late but hardly the lights-out setup guy we traded for. Poyner should be as good or better. Thornburg is no safe bet either. We are going to need to acquire this year’s Addison Reed at some point.
 

Byrdbrain

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There is no reason to believe that Poyner will be as good or better than Smith.
I guess we can hope he is but to say he should be is simply wishcasting.
 

mfried

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Meh, Smith was pitching better of late but hardly the lights-out setup guy we traded for. Poyner should be as good or better. Thornburg is no safe bet either. We are going to need to acquire this year’s Addison Reed at some point.
Poyner is not close to Smith. But he’s a lefty - that’s something. The double last night which won the game for Oakland didn’t seem like a freak. Poyner for bad hitters and lefties only.
 

OurF'ingCity

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We are going to need to acquire this year’s Addison Reed at some point.
People keep saying this but given the farm system I just can't see any Addison Reed-like trades being made because some other team will have a better offer. I think we need to get used to the idea that our current bullpen, plus the various guys on the Pawtucket shuttle, is what we are going to be dealing with come playoff time. And I don't even really think that's a major issue unless there are more injuries or guys like Kelly/Barnes really start to regress.
 

MikeM

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People keep saying this but given the farm system I just can't see any Addison Reed-like trades being made because some other team will have a better offer.
Can you honestly even name any of the prospects dealt for Reed last deadline without looking it up?

But yeah, for now and being this early in the season I'm certainly not holding my breathe waiting on DD to pull an early rabbit out of the hat there.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Can you honestly even name any of the prospects dealt for Reed last deadline without looking it up?

But yeah, for now and being this early in the season I'm certainly not holding my breathe waiting on DD to pull an early rabbit out of the hat there.
I can name 2 but I'm a minor league guru. Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista and there is someone else I don't remember. Not exactly a haul. I'm sure most people on the board don't even recognize those names.


edit: Looking it up, the 3rd was Stephen Nogosek.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Can you honestly even name any of the prospects dealt for Reed last deadline without looking it up?
No, but those are three prospects they now don't have available to trade this year. You can't keep trading prospects for short-term rentals without somehow replenishing the farm system.
 

Adrian's Dome

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No, but those are three prospects they now don't have available to trade this year. You can't keep trading prospects for short-term rentals without somehow replenishing the farm system.
Yes, you can, if you have a clear window to win the WS, which we do.

The farm being stocked is great, but often does nothing for the major league team, especially if you horde prospects and fail to cash them in for valuable assets at peak value.

A big reason the farm is barren is because Benintendi and Devers, who weren't traded, are actively contributing to the major league squad.

If your major league team is garbage and you have no prospects, that's a problem. When you're a top 5 team in the majors and you don't, not nearly as much of an issue.
 

pinkunicornsox

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I am sorry I might have missed it, but where did Smith say he has been used a lot? Also how can being used a lot during the first month of the season lead to a shoulder injury of this magnitude?
 

Laser Show

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I am sorry I might have missed it, but where did Smith say he has been used a lot? Also how can being used a lot during the first month of the season lead to a shoulder injury of this magnitude?
It was here:

FWIW Cora is calling BS saying they communicate daily with relievers and Smith never said anything.

 

curly2

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Cora comes off as a straight shooter. If he's calling BS, I believe him.

I think there's a great chance Smith has thrown his last pitch for the team. I don't think they cut him out of spite. If he comes back, he'll get a chance. But if he doesn't return this year -- or if he returns and isn't very good -- I think he'll be non-tendered.
 

shaggydog2000

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I don't see that quote as accusing the team of over-using him, just of pitching stress leading to the injury. Which makes sense. Do you think any completely healthy shoulder would come out of joint from spiking a glove?
 

sean1562

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I hope they don't non-tender him just because he is upset he injured his shoulder. Jerk or not he is controllable through 2020 and is certainly a better option than Heath Hembree. It is possible that both Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel do not play for this team next season, we will have space to carry Carson Smith, even if he is just a mediocre 7th inning reliever, which seems to be his floor.
 

Mike F

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If Tazawa clears waivers and is released offer him a AAA CV contract
with an option out date.
 

Dropo's moose

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Can you be more specific on what stats you're looking at? His high lev stats were much better last year than 2016.

The control is an issue; I agree. But, 1) he's been successful in spite of it and 2) he's improved overall in spite of it. The facts do not agree with your eye test. He has become an above average reliever. It certainly isn't ideal (which is why I'm not a huge fan) for a relief ace or closer to have control issues, but he isn't being asked to be that guy. You constantly run him out there because he's a good (not great) reliever. "The same result" is better than average success. What is it you want? 4 Craig Kimbrels?

Your argument has no legs: no one is asking Kelly and Barnes to get us to Kimbrel. As Byrdbrain says, it's Smith and Kelly. Barnes is the 4th best reliever, assuming Thornburg doesn't return to form this season. Barnes isn't going to be asked to be an 8th inning guy in September/October. If that becomes the case, due to injury or underperformance of the other guys, I expect them to go get another setup man.

Baseball Reference has a stat under "Clutch Stats" Late and close

I will rephrase now that Smith is out. Kelly, the jury is still out since his entire career has been inconsistent. Thornburg coming off of the same injury Harvey had and we see what has happened to Harvey. Barnes is not the guy if you go by the late inning statistics.
Bottom line is, you need another Reliever but at what cost?
 

Harry Hooper

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People keep saying this but given the farm system I just can't see any Addison Reed-like trades being made because some other team will have a better offer. I think we need to get used to the idea that our current bullpen, plus the various guys on the Pawtucket shuttle, is what we are going to be dealing with come playoff time. And I don't even really think that's a major issue unless there are more injuries or guys like Kelly/Barnes really start to regress.
There's a very good chance a team going nowhere this season would be happy to save a million in two by divesting a reliever down the stretch, almost regardless of return.
 

sean1562

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But who exactly? Nate Jones from the CWS? Jake Diekman from the Rangers? Craig Stammen from the Padres? Who else is even remotely serviceable from a bad team with an expiring contract?

I feel like it is more likely that Beeks comes up as a reliever and we run with Carson and Thornburg as the core of our bullpen. I just dont know who we would even want or could trade for. Does anyone else know of any realistic targets that would be an actual upgrade? Sntiago Casilla with Oakland? Zach Britton seems like he would require a haul and be too expensive for us to pay for. Kelvin Herrera, but he seems like a target for loads of teams. The Nationals have more pieces than us and would be going for some of the more elite guys as well.
 
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RIrooter09

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Stammen would represent an upgrade over all of our setup guys outside of Kelly. He's not a FA until 2020 thought.
 

sean1562

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He was one of the only guys I could find in my preliminary search while watching the game that might represent an upgrade. He is getting older though so maybe they would be more prone to trade him. But might want an actual prospect for him. Don't see a lot of low cost decent set up guys. We are probably not playing in the Britton and Herrera market. But maybe Herrera would be a better signing than Kimbrel, considering his age?
 

In my lifetime

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There's a very good chance a team going nowhere this season would be happy to save a million in two by divesting a reliever down the stretch, almost regardless of return.
But the issue is that the RS only have about 2 MM before they hit the next level in luxury tax. So the two things a team dumping an expiring contract would be salary relief or promising prospects. Unfortunately, the RS have very little to offer in both categories.
 

Cesar Crespo

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But who exactly? Nate Jones from the CWS? Jake Diekman from the Rangers? Craig Stammen from the Padres? Who else is even remotely serviceable from a bad team with an expiring contract?

I feel like it is more likely that Beeks comes up as a reliever and we run with Carson and Thornburg as the core of our bullpen. I just dont know who we would even want or could trade for. Does anyone else know of any realistic targets that would be an actual upgrade? Sntiago Casilla with Oakland? Zach Britton seems like he would require a haul and be too expensive for us to pay for. Kelvin Herrera, but he seems like a target for loads of teams. The Nationals have more pieces than us and would be going for some of the more elite guys as well.
It's May 17th. The who may not even be available yet, but available in 2 months.
 

grimshaw

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Junichi Tazawa just DFA'd in Miami. I wonder if the Sox kick the tires? Although from his numbers maybe he's done.
You know you suck when the Marlins get rid of you.

The Red Sox don't need a non set up reliever. They have a half dozen of those guys as good or better in the minors at this point. Is he any better than Walden or Workman?
 

rhswanzey

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Can you honestly even name any of the prospects dealt for Reed last deadline without looking it up?
I can name 2 but I'm a minor league guru. Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista and there is someone else I don't remember. Not exactly a haul. I'm sure most people on the board don't even recognize those names.


edit: Looking it up, the 3rd was Stephen Nogosek.
No, but those are three prospects they now don't have available to trade this year. You can't keep trading prospects for short-term rentals without somehow replenishing the farm system.
Note that Callahan would have needed to be added to the 40-man this offseason anyway. Odds are we have a guy who's an iffy use of a 2019 40-man roster spot who will end up being somewhat interesting to someone, at least if a $5 scratch off is stapled to him. That team mostly wants to get out of paying the available player half a season of salary when it should be evaluating prospects or taking a no real risk post hype dice roll. If we're going to leave said player exposed to the Rule 5 draft this winter anyway, then why not just trade the guy.

We don't have to hit a home run at the trade deadline to fill a setup void, if it comes to that. It's still really early; speculating now about what the July relief trade market will look like seems kind of premature.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Baseball Reference has a stat under "Clutch Stats" Late and close
The sample size gets way too small to be meaningful when you break down by things like inning or leverage situation a quarter of the way through a season.

The bottom line is that the Sox have one of the top three or four bullpens in the AL by most meaningful measures, and while reinforcements are never a bad thing, it's not a need with any urgency attached to it.
 

uk_sox_fan

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It's May 17th. The who may not even be available yet, but available in 2 months.
The Who are playing Tanglewood on June 15th. According to their site they're booked up through mid-August. But Townsend is 72 and Daltrey is 74 - I really don't think they'd be much help.

edit: my spellchecker is obviously not of my g-g-g-g-generation...
 

OurF'ingCity

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There's a very good chance a team going nowhere this season would be happy to save a million in two by divesting a reliever down the stretch, almost regardless of return.
Fair enough, I guess, but that is assuming the Red Sox are the only team bidding on a given reliever. If there is another team out there willing to take salary AND give a better prospect than the Sox can, the Sox lose out.

Add that to the luxury tax concerns others have mentioned and I just think it will be very difficult to get someone good. Sure, they can get another body, but will that pitcher be any better than what Barnes is giving them? Not sure of that at all.
 

Green Monster

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But who exactly? Nate Jones from the CWS? Jake Diekman from the Rangers? Craig Stammen from the Padres? Who else is even remotely serviceable from a bad team with an expiring contract?

I feel like it is more likely that Beeks comes up as a reliever and we run with Carson and Thornburg as the core of our bullpen. I just dont know who we would even want or could trade for. Does anyone else know of any realistic targets that would be an actual upgrade? Sntiago Casilla with Oakland? Zach Britton seems like he would require a haul and be too expensive for us to pay for. Kelvin Herrera, but he seems like a target for loads of teams. The Nationals have more pieces than us and would be going for some of the more elite guys as well.
Perhaps Brad Ziegler but he might be too pricey....He is in the last year of his deal, making $9M for 2018
 

jerry casale

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I wouldn't be surprised if Wright never pitches in Boston or the majors again.
I also don't see any danger in DFAing Johnson, I'm pretty sure he'd make it through and end up in Pawtucket.
That said they may still send Velazquez down first just to get some steady work.
Wrong, wrong and wrong...............good call
 

jerry casale

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Price is unreliable but the guy who has hardly pitched since 2016 and has sucked when he has is reliable? It has also been shown repeatedly that Wright was bad before the infamous pinch running injury.
I have no idea how anyone can think that Wright belongs in the rotation, ideally he'd be in the minors showing he can at least get AAA hitters out but unfortunately he has to be activated.
Wright was an all star 6 weeks before Farrell fucked up his career. How is that bad??
 

Byrdbrain

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Wright was an all star 6 weeks before Farrell fucked up his career. How is that bad??
It’s been widely documented that Wright was bad for several weeks before he hurt himself. If you can’t be bothered to look it up then I’m certainly not going to do it for you.

I hope I’m wrong and Wright ends up being good again but I don’t expect it.

Edit: on your first comment I was wrong on the first the second is incomplete and the third essentially happened with Velazquez pitching in Pawtucket tomorrow.
 

soxeast

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He was one of the only guys I could find in my preliminary search while watching the game that might represent an upgrade. He is getting older though so maybe they would be more prone to trade him. But might want an actual prospect for him. Don't see a lot of low cost decent set up guys. We are probably not playing in the Britton and Herrera market. But maybe Herrera would be a better signing than Kimbrel, considering his age?
Right now the Sox have an over-abundance of starters. But right now some aren't performing to expectations. Still -- you can get a reliever. You can do a 3team deal if need be.

I'm just as concerned about the catching if not more. I read a post from the poster Grimshaw who provided a link showing that Vaz to be among the top defensive catchers last year. If he really is that type of good then concerns of catching aren't that bad. . . But . . . I just don't believe in those numbers. I think the Sox pitchers make him look better. For example if he had to work with Gray from the Yankees or a lot of young, wild starters- I don't think he'd be very good at all.

With that said-- right now Sox have 5 legit starters in which none are really a "5" and shouldn't even be a "4." Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Pomeranz. And they have 2 starters that should be at least decent enough to be a "5" if they can stay healthy in Velazquez and Wright. One of the starters such as Pomeranz can be moved in at least a 3 team deal for a reliever (and maybe more - ofc depending on the reliever etc) if Sox bullpen cracks - and ofc Pomez needs to be healthy and probably show something.
 

Monbo Jumbo

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It’s been widely documented that Wright was bad for several weeks before he hurt himself. If you can’t be bothered to look it up then I’m certainly not going to do it for you.

I hope I’m wrong and Wright ends up being good again but I don’t expect it.

Edit: on your first comment I was wrong on the first the second is incomplete and the third essentially happened with Velazquez pitching in Pawtucket tomorrow.
I can't remember any post on the main board as spectacularly wrong as this one.

Wright was injured Aug 7, 2016.

On Aug 5, 2016 he pitched a complete game shutout walking one and striking out nine.

You don't have to look it up because I did it for you.
 

Byrdbrain

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I can't remember any post on the main board as spectacularly wrong as this one.

Wright was injured Aug 7, 2016.

On Aug 5, 2016 he pitched a complete game shutout walking one and striking out nine.

You don't have to look it up because I did it for you.
Did you look up the games before that one?

June 25 4.2 In 7 hits 8 runs
July 1 5 In 8 hits 4 runs
July 6 6 In 9 hits 6 runs
July 15 6 In 3 hits 3 runs - hey that's not bad
July 21 8 In 4 hits 2 runs - that's good
July 26 4.2 In 9 hits 8 runs
July 31 5 In 10 hits 3 runs

So including the one excellent start his stats were:

8 games, 47 Innings, 53 Hits, 34 runs or a RA of 6.5.

I used RA instead of ERA because a knuckleballer has so many more unearned runs than a "normal" pitcher.
So yes even including that one excellent start he had stunk for over a month before he hurt himself.

Edit: Sorry for the crappy formatting.

 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I can't remember any post on the main board as spectacularly wrong as this one.

Wright was injured Aug 7, 2016.

On Aug 5, 2016 he pitched a complete game shutout walking one and striking out nine.

You don't have to look it up because I did it for you.
In his 7 starts prior to the shutout, he had an ERA of 6.18 and a WHIP of 1.60.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Did you look up the games before that one?

June 25 4.2 In 7 hits 8 runs
July 1 5 In 8 hits 4 runs
July 6 6 In 9 hits 6 runs
July 15 6 In 3 hits 3 runs - hey that's not bad
July 21 8 In 4 hits 2 runs - that's good
July 26 4.2 In 9 hits 8 runs
July 31 5 In 10 hits 3 runs

So including the one excellent start his stats were:

8 games, 47 Innings, 53 Hits, 34 runs or a RA of 6.5.

I used RA instead of ERA because a knuckleballer has so many more unearned runs than a "normal" pitcher.
So yes even including that one excellent start he had stunk for over a month before he hurt himself.

Edit: Sorry for the crappy formatting.

You are spectacularly correct. He sucked
 

soxeast

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No team EVER has an overabundance of starters (see: Boston Red Sox 2006).
And I can look at the 2013 Tigers with their stud 3 starters but ended up losing to the Sox in 6. Right now they have starters. It's not like you can say year-over-year every position is strong. Potentially the SOx have huge holes with relief pitching and catching. It could be mroe important to have all postiosn covered rather than just great SP. TheTigers of 2013 showed despite having super starting pitching - it wasn't enough. Not even enough to push the series to 7.
 

In my lifetime

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And I can look at the 2013 Tigers with their stud 3 starters but ended up losing to the Sox in 6. Right now they have starters. It's not like you can say year-over-year every position is strong. Potentially the SOx have huge holes with relief pitching and catching. It could be more important to have all positions covered rather than just great SP. TheTigers of 2013 showed despite having super starting pitching - it wasn't enough. Not even enough to push the series to 7.
Except that the RS just don't only have great SP, nor do they have a huge hole in the BP. Every team would like to have no holes and every position covered by potential all stars. However in the real world of 2018 where there is competition to acquire top players, this doesn't happen. The RS currently have the highest payroll in MLB, and in the next couple of years quite a few of their relatively inexpensive/reasonably priced stars are due to be eligible for free agency. This tremendously restricts their ability to spend money to fix these problems. They have a pitching staff that includes 2 Cy Young winners close to their prime years (Price, Porcello) + one of the top 3 pitchers over the last 5 years (Sale). The BP includes the game's best closer (Kimbrel) + 1 set up man who has proven to be outstanding thus far (Kelly) . They have two of the game's top 5 hitters (JD & Mookie), two potential young all stars (Devers, Beni10) one of the top 5 SS in the game (X) and a former MVP who is due back from the disabled list albeit in the later stages of his career (Pedey). Then they have 2 good defensive catchers, a great defensive center fielder (all of whom are struggling at the plate) and one excellent fielding first baseman (who is also hitting well) and another one who has been better then most expected offensively and defensively (HRam). Overall this is one of the best RS teams that have been assembled in the last 50 years.

Yes it would be great if
Devers didn't act like an inexperienced 22 yr old and avoided fielding errors and swinging at pitches out of the zone. This will get better over the rest of this year and next
Barnes was a more consistent strike thrower
Hembree was better, but after all he currently is the #4 option out of the bullpen
The catchers and Bradley were hitting their weight
Pomeranz got back to a semblance of 2017 (if not Wright looks like he could step in)

However, there are 29 other MLB teams that also need their rosters filled.
The RS have no worse than one of the best 5 rosters in the league and currently have the 2nd best record in baseball, even though they have had their share of injuries, suspensions etc.

It is just not possible for the RS to throw money (almost exceeding the next luxury tax number) or prospects (none currently that will move the needle) to create a near perfect team and land another closer type and one of those rare good hitting, good defensive catchers.

The team will have to address the issue by
Pinch hitting for the catchers (until/if one breaks out)
Pinch hitting for Bradley or using him as a late inning D replacement (this approach has started as his playing time has been curtailed over the last week), while he works on regaining his stroke to approach becoming an average hitter
Getting Pedey back, so the bench is lengthened and significantly improve D at 2B
Looking to Wright, Thornburg stepping in and solidifying the BP
Hoping Pomeranz returns to form after missing spring training

I think it is too much to expect all the weaknesses to work themselves out as the season progresses, but some of them certainly will improve significantly and the others the RS will just have to learn to work around. Unfortunately, their toughest competition in the division has an easier path to improve their roster since they have significant room before surpassing the luxury tax number. The RS will likely make the playoffs and then to advance they will need some good fortune and their SP to be outstanding.
 

soxeast

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I told the poster Sean that The Sox can get a reliever. There have been questions with him and others about the bullpen - I was just offering that unlike past years while the Sox don't have the minor league prospects to get one-- but IMO they don't need one. They can trade a starter. If the bullpen holds up-- great! Don't have to trade one. If the BP cracks - you can get one.

I have to say though I don't share your optimism with Vazquez. I know Grimshaw provided a link to a site that analyzes defense and states Vaz was among the best defenders last year. I think that analysis is missing something though I relaize I could be way off. I'm just very skeptical of data showing he was "among the best" while wiht my extremely untrained eye he looked mediocre. I understand this year though his defensive numbers are pretty bad that someone posted on here. I think those are more true to what he is. AN "average at best" defensive catcher. That's more in-line what I think I saw last year. But I'll yield ot you and others over the long term because I'm not "screaming" "trade him" etc. I'm just skeptical,

For example, someone points out different sites claim different framers. He doesn't block balls well at all. IMo he is poor at it. He doesn't throw out runners like he used to. Dont' think he does a very good job with plays at the plate. I think Vaz and Leon are quality backup catchers. That can be good enough. But maybe the sox can do better. If I'm all wet on this -- great. Mgmt will undoubtedly keep him and the SOx should have fine success.

Regard to the thread/bullpen-- one of Kimbrel or Kelly goes down-- there's a problem. Barnes is "ok" but not that good. He's okay for a 7th inning guy but there isn't much depth. The starters they have that are 4/5/6 starters aren't prototypical relief pitchers. To me it's a concern though for the time being can hold on.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Can you run down for me the AL teams that have three relievers who are clearly better than Barnes?
The Yankees.... that's probably it.
And that's the damned thing (as you're obviously pointing out) that as okay as Barnes is... he's better than most 3rd options out of any team's bullpen.
Speaking of which..... what's the latest on Thornburg? He seemed to be on track to be rejoining the club and then?
 

chawson

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The Yankees.... that's probably it.
And that's the damned thing (as you're obviously pointing out) that as okay as Barnes is... he's better than most 3rd options out of any team's bullpen.
Speaking of which..... what's the latest on Thornburg? He seemed to be on track to be rejoining the club and then?
Feels almost like cheating to bring the Astros up, but Giles, Peacock and Devenski are assuredly better than Matt Barnes. I think most would agree that Will Harris and Hector Rondon are, and this year’s bullpen convert version of Collin McHugh seems to be too. Joe Smith is having some problems this year, but he was better than Barnes from 2016-17. By some metrics (FIP) the same could be said about Michael Feliz, a guy they traded away.

I’d take any of the first five of those guys over Barnes for sure.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Speaking of which..... what's the latest on Thornburg? He seemed to be on track to be rejoining the club and then?
He had a poor outing last Monday, so he was shut down until Friday when he had a decent outing (1 hit, 1 K, 1 inning). Not so great on Saturday (2 walks in 3 batters faced). No reports since but it would seem he isn't quite ready as he's struggling with back to backs.
 

chawson

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Seen another way, here are the "good" seasons (<4.25 xFIP) since 2010 by an AL reliever running a walk rate over 5.0/9.

2013 Andrew Miller (BOS) 5.0 BB/9, 2.44 xFIP
2012 Pedro Strop (BAL) 5.0 BB/9, 4.00 xFIP
2016 Craig Kimbrel (BOS) 5.1 BB/9, 3.48 xFIP
2015 Chasen Shreve (NYY) 5.1 BB/9, 4.23 xFIP
2015 Greg Holland (KC) 5.2 BB/9, 3.78 xFIP
2013 Yoervis Medina (SEA) 5.3 BB/9, 3.85 xFIP
2018 Matt Barnes (BOS) 5.5 BB/9, 3.28 xFIP
2015 Bruce Rondon (DET) 5.5 BB/9, 4.22 xFIP
2011 Al Alburquerque (DET) 6.0 BB/9, 2.78 xFIP
2013 Al Alburquerque (DET) 6.2 BB/9, 3.48 xFIP
2017 Dellin Betances (DET) 6.6 BB/9, 3.76 xFIP
2013 Rich Hill (CLE) 6.8 BB/9, 4.12 xFIP

It seems like he's walking a really tight rope. Here's that same list again with swinging strike percentage, where Barnes ranks 117 out of 227 MLB relievers (>10 IP).

2013 Andrew Miller (BOS) 13.3% SwStr
2012 Pedro Strop (BAL) 10.2%
2016 Craig Kimbrel (BOS) 15.1%
2015 Chasen Shreve (NYY) 11.0%
2015 Greg Holland (KC) 14.6%
2013 Yoervis Medina (SEA) 10.4%
2018 Matt Barnes (BOS) 11.2%
2015 Bruce Rondon (DET) 11.9%
2011 Al Alburquerque (DET) 15.7%
2013 Al Alburquerque (DET) 15.7%
2017 Dellin Betances (DET) 12.7%
2013 Rich Hill (CLE) 9.4%

The guys that make Barnes look good (Miller, Kimbrel, Holland) all got way more whiffs than Barnes is getting. There's a couple LOOGYs who aren't great comps (Shreve and Hill). And a couple guys no longer in the league (Medina got hurt, Alburquerque is on a minor league contract with the Jays).

Honestly, Pedro Strop seems like a decent comp. If Matt Barnes pitched in the NL Central, I'm sure he'd have a nice little run as a team's 7th inning guy.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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Did you look up the games before that one?

June 25 4.2 In 7 hits 8 runs
July 1 5 In 8 hits 4 runs
July 6 6 In 9 hits 6 runs
July 15 6 In 3 hits 3 runs - hey that's not bad
July 21 8 In 4 hits 2 runs - that's good
July 26 4.2 In 9 hits 8 runs
July 31 5 In 10 hits 3 runs

So including the one excellent start his stats were:

8 games, 47 Innings, 53 Hits, 34 runs or a RA of 6.5.

I used RA instead of ERA because a knuckleballer has so many more unearned runs than a "normal" pitcher.
So yes even including that one excellent start he had stunk for over a month before he hurt himself.

Edit: Sorry for the crappy formatting.

There were mitigating circumstances with a bunch of those starts though; I'll drag out my old post about it again:

Well, let's look at those 8 starts, or maybe 9 because I like bookends:
6/20: 9 IP, 1 unearned run (Shaw error and botched pickoff throw) on 5 H, 3BB, 6 SO. Kimbrel with the loss in the 10th.
6/25: 5 unearned runs in the fifth on errors by Xander and Hanley, and it's a Ross WP that lets in the last. Still, 3 earned in the fourth before that, and he admits he doesn't have the knuckle. Beaten by summer in Arlington, again.
7/1: after 5 scoreless, loses control as the sixth gets rainy. Double, HBP, walk, GS on a full count fastball where Farrell says he should have thrown the knuckle.
7/6: 5 good innings (1 unearned on a Pedey error) again, then 5ER across the 6th and 7th as he and Hanigan, with a 10 run lead, start trying to challenge with fastballs to go deeper and spare the pen in a blowout.
7/15: great through 5 scoreless, sitting down the first 14 in a row, loses control a bit in the sixth with a HPB and walk coming around for 2 of 3 ER, but finishes the inning.
7/21: 8 IP, 2 runs (1 earned) on 4 hits, 9 SO, 1BB. Maybe it doesn't count cause Twins?
7/26: a bad game. 9 runs (8 earned) on 8 hits, 3 BB, a HR to Miggy, wild pitches moving base runners.
7/31: not good either, but luckier. Somehow scatters 10 hits and 3 BB across 5 IP while only giving up 3, all in the 5th. Helps his own case by getting two putouts at home in the first alone.
8/5: 9 IP, 3 hits, 9 SO, 1 BB, complete game shutout.

That's a really interesting stretch with a bad couple games at the end of July, and it demonstrated an easy lesson that I think Farrell recognized: If Wright needs to rely on his fastball, you're in trouble. His knuckleball is clearly susceptible to rain and sweat, but you also need to be ready with a quick hook in the fifth or sixth if it falters with fatigue, and in those cases it's generally better to have him walk a couple guys while you get a reliever ready. All the trouble in those middle innings makes me think maybe he should be viewed primarily as a twice through the order guy, with leeway to go longer if he's having a dominant night.

But his flaws seem to be pretty manageable if you know what to look for, really. I think in my mind he's the fifth starter if he proves his shoulder has recovered next spring.
Now who knows if he can be that guy again after all the lost time, but the numbers for that stretch are certainly deceptive without context.
 

Byrdbrain

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Jul 18, 2005
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That is interesting, I hadn't seen it the first time you posted it(or I forgot which is certainly possible).
What I see there is a typical knuckleball pitcher who can lose it very quickly, I will be the first to admit that I'm biased against knuckleballers, they are just too variable for my taste. That along with the issues that Wright has when it is raining or too hot just give me very low expectations of him moving forward.
I'd much rather throw Velazquez out there if Pom can't get it together even with the posts showing he may be a bit of a mirage.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
8,469
New York City
There were mitigating circumstances with a bunch of those starts though
Why are we acting like a nine-game sample size tells us all that much about a pitcher one way or the other, especially when those nine games happened two years ago? Looking at Wright's overall numbers, he had very good ERA/FIP numbers in 2016 (3.33/3.77, although his xFIP was much higher at 4.57) and, in fewer innings, had worse but not terrible numbers in 2015 (4.09/5.01/4.85 ERA/FIP/xFIP in 70 or so innings).

So his performance to date suggests he is roughly a 4-4.5 ERA type guy, which is more than serviceable for a fifth starter. So, given Velazquez's options, I don't see much of a reason to put Wright into the rotation to at least see if he can replicate that type of performance. If he sucks, fine you DFA him (or make him the long reliever and DFA Johnson, etc.) and move on. But I think it would be foolish to not at least see what Wright can give them in that 5th rotation spot.

(P.S. I do agree with Byrdbrain re: the variability of knuckleballers and for that reason wouldn't want him anywhere near a playoff roster unless he is pitching lights-out. But I think you can get away with that kind of variability during the regular season when those things tend to even out a bit more.)