BOS bullpen 2018

Monbonthbump

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Just read this thread and noted The Gray Eagle left off Mark Melancon who was absolutely horrible for us and pretty good for everyone else, and "Hey, hey, hey", Matt Albers who was mediocre for us and pretty good for everyone else. Predicting the success of relievers for different teams is a crap shoot at best.
 

Van Everyman

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Albers was actually pretty good for us in 2012 before he was moved. One of Valentine’s underrated (only?) talents was bullpen management.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Albers was actually pretty good for us in 2012 before he was moved. One of Valentine’s underrated (only?) talents was bullpen management.
Except the way he handled Melancon. He had, what, two bad outings then got buried, had two more rough goes then got shipped out to Pawtucket. When he returned, he was actually pretty solid. 37 games, 43 innings, 40 K, 1.05 WHIP, .597 OPS against. He wasn't nearly as bad as people want to remember. First impressions linger, I guess.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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According to NESN the Sox are 40-3 when leading after 7 innings.

That is evidence of a very good bullpen so far and this also passes the eye test.

I like the scrum we have going on below Kimbrel, Kelly and Barnes. Hembree, Workman, Velazquez, Poyner, Johnson, have all shown they’re at least serviceable for the big league club. Throw Pom and Wright into that mix as 5th/6th starters/swingmen and this is shaping up to be one of the better constructed pens the Sox have had since I have been following the team.

Interested to hear what others think.
 

lexrageorge

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Baseball Reference has a table "Wins above average by position". By that table, the Sox lead the AL in both starting pitching (5.6 wins above average) and relief pitching (4.6). BTW, the Rangers are 2nd in the relief pitching metric with 1.2 wins, quite a gap.

The Sox bullpen appears deep; so far, there's noone in the bullpen that makes me want to turn off the TV when they come in to the game, which says something (yes, that includes Joe Kelly). The depth is a nice thing to have, as it allows Cora to manage workloads and play matchups when needed. It could come in very handy in the playoffs, assuming the rest of the team (hitters, starting pitchers) perform to their standards.
 

Cesar Crespo

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According to NESN the Sox are 40-3 when leading after 7 innings.

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I'd guess most teams have great records when leading after 7. Not sure a 40-3 record means much of anything. I do like our bullpen though and think it's fine as is. No need to make a move for a pitcher.
 

TFisNEXT

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Baseball Reference has a table "Wins above average by position". By that table, the Sox lead the AL in both starting pitching (5.6 wins above average) and relief pitching (4.6). BTW, the Rangers are 2nd in the relief pitching metric with 1.2 wins, quite a gap.

The Sox bullpen appears deep; so far, there's noone in the bullpen that makes me want to turn off the TV when they come in to the game, which says something (yes, that includes Joe Kelly). The depth is a nice thing to have, as it allows Cora to manage workloads and play matchups when needed. It could come in very handy in the playoffs, assuming the rest of the team (hitters, starting pitchers) perform to their standards.
Brian Johnson is pretty close for me, though even he's been fairly playable if you keep him mostly to lefties.

Matt Barnes has a BB/9 rate of 4.8 which is concerning, but if he's going to maintain his K/9 rate of 11.8 then we can certainly live with it. Craig Kimbrel is also not nearly as dominant as last year....granted, we shouldn't expect a repeat since 2017 was borderline historical, but he's putting up the worst peripherals of his career. Luckily his career has been so dominant that even with his worst peripherals he's still a very good closer. But he's looked better than he's performed this year aided by a .196 BABIP and a 95% LOB. Joe Kelly has also had a crazy low .183 BABIP. So I think we should expect a bit of regression in the "results" department from the bullpen going forward.

But your overall points are true...the 'pen doesn't have any truly white flag relievers right now. Even guys like Johnson and Hembree are perfectly good options in a tight game so long as they are kept mainly to the strong side of their platoon splits.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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According to BRef, teams are 771-111 (0.874 ) when leading after the 7th inning.

They are 820-83 (0.908) when leading after the 8th inning and 874-38 (0.958) when leading after the 9th inning.
 

bosockboy

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I still think DD will explore acquiring someone like Brad Hand as a playoff weapon. He’s also great Kimbrel replacement insurance as he signed cheaply for 3 more seasons.
 

chawson

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I still think DD will explore acquiring someone like Brad Hand as a playoff weapon. He’s also great Kimbrel replacement insurance as he signed cheaply for 3 more seasons.
Brad Hand will probably be the most expensive to acquire of all relievers in his asset class. The Sox can't trade for an elite reliever under cheap control for the next three seasons—that's Kimbrel territory.

I would 100x prefer a small trade for Jake Diekman than a giving up a haul for Hand.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Brad Hand will probably be the most expensive to acquire of all relievers in his asset class. The Sox can't trade for an elite reliever under cheap control for the next three seasons—that's Kimbrel territory.

I would 100x prefer a small trade for Jake Diekman than a giving up a haul for Hand.
Particularly since they don't have a haul to give. When people are proposing trade targets that, if they move at all, will be in high demand, it would be instructive to figure out what exactly the Red Sox can offer that a) is enough to satisfy the other team and b) is enough to top what the Yankees or Astros or Nationals or Braves or Brewers or Diamondbacks or any other contender can offer. My assumption is that should shut down most suggestions before they are even posted.
 

chawson

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Particularly since they don't have a haul to give. When people are proposing trade targets that, if they move at all, will be in high demand, it would be instructive to figure out what exactly the Red Sox can offer that a) is enough to satisfy the other team and b) is enough to top what the Yankees or Astros or Nationals or Braves or Brewers or Diamondbacks or any other contender can offer. My assumption is that should shut down most suggestions before they are even posted.
Agreed. I think the most minimal package we could offer that would get that deal done would include Devers.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Well, 40-3 is 0.925, correct, so that is indeed significantly better than average (0.847)....
You'd probably want to look at more than just one team before you make a conclusion.

For example, the Os are 14-1 (.933) after 7. Not sure I'd call the Os bullpen very good these days.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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40-3 is .925. 40-6 is .870... or below average. Average was .874, not .847. I'm not sure you can really read much into it.
Correct. You beat me to the math. That said I still believe this is one of the better Sox pens I’ve seen.

The clearer stat is what lexrageorge cited above with wins above replacement. The 40-3 is just NESN fluff. OB probably made a big deal over it, meaning...
 

Cesar Crespo

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Our bullpen has been pretty wild in the month of June.

Joe Kelly has had a pretty rough month: 10 g, 7.2ip, 9h, 6bb/6k, 8.22 era, Hitters slashing .281/.395/.595 on a .292 BAbip.
Kimbrel 7 games, 7.1ip, 1h, 6bb/12k, 2.45 era.
Barnes 11 games, 11.2 ip, 9h, 6bb/16k, 3.09 era.

Still a pretty good 3some, though less so now than at the end of May.

Other June performances:
Hembree 11 games, 9.2ip, 1h, 6bb/13k 0.93 era
Workman 9 games, 9ip, 5h, 3bb/11k 1.00 era
Johnson 5 games, 9ip, 10h, 2bb/10, 2.00 era

Anyone know what the bullpens overall performance was in June because it looks pretty sick outside of Joe Kelly, though with sample sizes so small Joe Kelly could skew the overall line anyway. And I tend to forget about mop up duty performances.

I thought we'd see Buttrey at some point but it might have to wait until September. He's been making a mockery out of AAA and has decent stuff. He sits between 95-98, or did the last few times I saw him in Portland, which was last year.

And just for fun: Starters BB/k rate this year 7.6%/25.6%, bullpen 9.2%/26.0%.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Has anyone been writing about Kimbrel's control problems? Curious if there's any speculative explanation other than..."baseball".

Boy do I miss Koji. How spoiled were we...
 

Dewey'sCannon

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According to BRef, teams are 771-111 (0.874 ) when leading after the 7th inning.

They are 820-83 (0.908) when leading after the 8th inning and 874-38 (0.958) when leading after the 9th inning.
Wow - teams actually lost 38 times when leading after the 9th inning? You'd think they'd already be in the clubhouse having a beer or something.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Extra-inning road games?
The original poster said " the Sox are 40-3 when leading after 7 innings" and people just copied the language because we understood what it meant.

What it should have said was "___ to __ is the record when teams are leading after the start of the 7/8/9 inning." Leaving out "the start of" was shorthand that I thought people understood but YMMV.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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DeadlySplitter

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I doubt we have the chips for Barraclough but that'd be an intriguing get.

Even if Thornburg is good I'm sure we'll pick somebody up, even if it's for a bag of balls.
 

Adrian's Dome

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What've we got with Brandon Workman?

2018: 12IP, 5H, 1ER, 0HR, 4BB, 14k, 0.75 WHIP. Pretty nice line in a small sample.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Thornburg activated. Cuevas optioned.
Holy crap.
Let's hope he's the key to the bullpen and can step in where Kelly's been dropping.
And yeah... Workman has been great in a very small sample.
I'm still pretty happy with the bullpen as it is presently constructed and I'll go up against any other team's as at least their equal.
 

Plympton91

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On Workman, I was listening to the radio feed about a week ago, may have even been an opponents feed, and they said he had really improved his curveball.

On Thornburg, I hope his minor league numbers are not indicative of how he’ll pitch in the majors. In his most recent rehab stint, he’s got only 6 K in 9 IP and has given up 5 ER even though some outings were as low as AA Portland. The only good stat is the 1 BB, but major league hitters will probably be more able to lay off his junk pitches.

I guess if he says he’s healthy and the 30 days are up they have no choice. But, unless he’s been holding something back in rehab, I still hope he doesn’t have to pitch in a close game anytime soon. But, sometimes that can’t be helped. This is a very tight race, and the Sox can’t afford to be losing games with someone who looks like he is far, far away from being one of the 12 best pitchers in the organization right now.
 

Byrdbrain

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On Workman, I was listening to the radio feed about a week ago, may have even been an opponents feed, and they said he had really improved his curveball.
His curveball has been excellent but his FB velo is way down from a few years ago. I suspect what we are seeing is essentially what bosox said but we'll have to wait and see. It's possible for a reliever to be good with a below average FB and a good curve but it sure isn't common.

As for Thornburg I can't imagine they are counting on him for much, if he ends up giving the Sox anything at this point it's a bonus.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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His curveball has been excellent but his FB velo is way down from a few years ago. I suspect what we are seeing is essentially what bosox said but we'll have to wait and see. It's possible for a reliever to be good with a below average FB and a good curve but it sure isn't common.

As for Thornburg I can't imagine they are counting on him for much, if he ends up giving the Sox anything at this point it's a bonus.
They’ve still got 2-3 weeks to assess if he can give the team enough to not have to trade for another reliever.

As for me, I’m just hoping Hembree and the rest of the middle relief cast can hold things together to give just a bit of relief to Barnes and Kelly.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm starting to worry that Kelly isn't in the same class as Barnes and more of an Hembree type himself, which could be a problem. That or he's hiding an injury or something. He's been dreadful since the start of June and hasn't shown any signs of getting better.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Well, yesterday (after your post, I presume) he gave a nice performance. Yes, he's been off more than on this past month but before that he was lights-out for 2 months so unless he is injured (and there's no indication that he is) there's every reason to believe that he'll re-claim his form and be lights-out again.

I'm still happy he's in the pen and that he and Barnes are setting up for Kimbrel. If Thornburg is any good it should be a strong (i.e. top 5 or 6 in MLB) pen which is all you can ask if you don't spend Yankee money on it.
 

grimshaw

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On Thornburg, I hope his minor league numbers are not indicative of how he’ll pitch in the majors. In his most recent rehab stint, he’s got only 6 K in 9 IP and has given up 5 ER even though some outings were as low as AA Portland. The only good stat is the 1 BB, but major league hitters will probably be more able to lay off his junk pitches.
I'm not expecting miracles but am looking at his performance as meaningless spring training numbers. He mentioned it would be nice to face guys with a game plan and scouting report rather than a bunch of guys he's never seen before. It's the same as a rehabbing veteran hitter. He isn't looking at video or anything.

As long as his stuff is okay I think he'll contribute. But I don't want him close and late either.
I imagine he'll be brought along like Smith was last year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Speaking of Smith... is there any chance in hell he winds up making it back on the 25 man this season?

Whatever happens to Smith or Thornburgh, it makes me very hesitant to want to trade for relievers. I'm very much on the Develop Relievers In Your System Boat.
 

bosockboy

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Speaking of Smith... is there any chance in hell he winds up making it back on the 25 man this season?

Whatever happens to Smith or Thornburgh, it makes me very hesitant to want to trade for relievers. I'm very much on the Develop Relievers In Your System Boat.
No he’s done. Shoulder surgery.