Benintendi #1 in Fangraphs' Red Sox Top Prospects List

Snodgrass'Muff

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The organization has four prospects who are pretty widely accepted as its top talents, though opinions differ greatly on the ranking order. Separate Red Sox officials all had one of Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi as top dog, each player having separate questions that potentially limit their ceilings (though they’re all pretty high regardless).
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-boston-red-sox/

There are tidbits on Margot and Guerra as well, and he's more in smas' camp with regard to Sam Travis.

The trade for Craig Kimbrel took four prospects off the list, which you can read about when the Padres list comes out (Margot would have been #3, Allen likely just off the top 10, Guerra towards the back end of the 45+ group). The rest of the system still has a good mix of upside and safety with enviable pitching and middle infield prospect quality. As a fair warning, I have a higher opinion of Mauricio Dubonand Trey Ball than may be commonly accepted, while Sam Travis gets more love after a strong regular season and fall performance than I’m willing to give just yet.
While I'm very high on Travis, I'm high on him because of his floor. He seems like a really good bet to be a solid major leaguer. He's almost certainly not going to be a star player and he's never going to be a middle of the order bat, but I think he'll be comfortably more than they need to justify starting him at first base while being a strong back third of the order hitter or maybe a table setter depending on how well he ends up running the bases.

Anyway, here's the intro on Benintendi:

After Benintendi’s breakout season at Arkansas leading up to the draft, the only real question for me was how the power will translate to the big leagues. In his early minor-league performance, he has carried a strong power profile through his first couple hundred at-bats, all while limiting his strikeouts and getting on base at a high level. With average or better potential in every tool, Benintendi joins the other top prospects in the organization having a very high ceiling, while also possessing a high floor with present skills that are very impressive.
I'm curious to see where he lands on the various top 100 lists. I'm guessing there will be a lot of variation from site to site. This piece is free, so I'm not going to paste any more of it here. Give it a click. It's well worth the time it takes to read.
 

AlNipper49

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-boston-red-sox/

There are tidbits on Margot and Guerra as well, and he's more in smas' camp with regard to Sam Travis.



While I'm very high on Travis, I'm high on him because of his floor. He seems like a really good bet to be a solid major leaguer. He's almost certainly not going to be a star player and he's never going to be a middle of the order bat, but I think he'll be comfortably more than they need to justify starting him at first base while being a strong back third of the order hitter or maybe a table setter depending on how well he ends up running the bases.

Anyway, here's the intro on Benintendi:



I'm curious to see where he lands on the various top 100 lists. I'm guessing there will be a lot of variation from site to site. This piece is free, so I'm not going to paste any more of it here. Give it a click. It's well worth the time it takes to read.
If Margot would have been #3 on the list, this probably means that he's ranking freaking Margot higher than Devers?

Man I'm lower on Devers than most people but there isn't a universe that I can imagine where Margot is the superior prospect.
 

grimshaw

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If Margot would have been #3 on the list, this probably means that he's ranking freaking Margot higher than Devers?

Man I'm lower on Devers than most people but there isn't a universe that I can imagine where Margot is the superior prospect.
Ceiling-wise, I'm with you - though Margot could step into CF and have value defensively and on the bases right off the bat and you can't say the same with Devers where his defensive placement isn't clear yet. Offensively, I think it has more to do with the two level gap.
 

ALiveH

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The Margot & Guerra move now is making more sense with the higher-than-expected rating on Benintendi (and being "blocked" by other top talents Betts, Bradley and to a lesser extent Moncada / Bogaerts)
 

smastroyin

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I hated the Kimbrel trade but Guerra was definitely a sell high candidate who was getting a lot of inflationary hype because of his results but I think his scouting is still a guy that you wouldn't expect to repeat his power expectation and will eventually settle into more of a gap to gap bat. Not to bring up this name again but I think longer term he projects more like an Iglesias type than a Bogaerts type.

The consensus moving him way up the boards is based around him being a 19 yo plus defense SS who slugged 450. So the question on terms of how you value him is all wrapped up in how much you think he'll carry that forward.
 

Darnell's Son

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He also indicated Guerra would have been down close to #20 overall (more or less where he rated Travis) - whereas the general consensus had him in the to 10?
Yeah, we'll get a more clear understanding of his thoughts on that when he does the San Diego list. Unfortunately, he's going in alphabetical order by city, so it will be a while. And I think grimshaw is right about Margot over Devers here. Farnsworth puts more emphasis on projectability than high upside, unlike a lot of his colleagues.
 

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In contrast, Fangraphs' KATOH projections love Devers (clear #1 among prospects) and also is very high on Travis (#2, essentially tied with Benintendi for 2/3). KATOH tends to love players like Devers, since it really appreciates his combination of low K rates and age-advancedness (especially in the lower minors), and doesn't really ding him much for his lowish walk rates. There's also no thought given to the idea that he might fill out too much to stick at 3b, though that's really a much longer-term consideration.
Notably, the guy who sticks out here is Moncada (ranked #18), but his adjustment period isn't accounted for and he's also a prospect who gets a ton of love for his physical tools rather than his numbers, especially given the sample size etc.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Can we just attribute this to Gammons? I assume he's the most influential of the hypesters on Guerra. Poor San Diego, how many times are they going to pounce on a Gammons-hype prospect? See Kelly, Casey.
Do you truly believe Peter Gammons was the reason San Diego wanted Guerra?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Do you truly believe Peter Gammons was the reason San Diego wanted Guerra?
Or that this one list means he is being overrated by others that have him higher? I'm a proponent of the Kimbrel trade and this list is a great example of how much variability exists within prospect projections, especially for guys who haven't cracked AA yet, but jumping to San Diego getting fooled on Guerra because of this list is... well, not good.
 

Detts

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I hated the Kimbrel trade but Guerra was definitely a sell high candidate who was getting a lot of inflationary hype because of his results but I think his scouting is still a guy that you wouldn't expect to repeat his power expectation and will eventually settle into more of a gap to gap bat. Not to bring up this name again but I think longer term he projects more like an Iglesias type than a Bogaerts type.

The consensus moving him way up the boards is based around him being a 19 yo plus defense SS who slugged 450. So the question on terms of how you value him is all wrapped up in how much you think he'll carry that forward.
Never trust power in A ball (especially when it is a 5"11 155lb SS). Tons of mistake pitches to feast on.
Or that this one list means he is being overrated by others that have him higher? I'm a proponent of the Kimbrel trade and this list is a great example of how much variability exists within prospect projections, especially for guys who haven't cracked AA yet, but jumping to San Diego getting fooled on Guerra because of this list is... well, not good.
Power can be a mirage in A ball as the pitching is terrible on average. AA is where you find out the truth.
 

nvalvo

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Casey Kelly was hyped by everyone and they also got some guy named Anthony Rizzo.
...whom they then flipped to Chicago for an injured Andrew Cashner after giving him a scant 150 MLB PAs. Not clear they saw Rizzo as the centerpiece of that deal.

Now Cashner's worked out about as well as they could have reasonably hoped, but when the deal was made, he was a young pitcher with a good minor league track record and a shoulder injury.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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...whom they then flipped to Chicago for an injured Andrew Cashner after giving him a scant 150 MLB PAs. Not clear they saw Rizzo as the centerpiece of that deal.

Now Cashner's worked out about as well as they could have reasonably hoped, but when the deal was made, he was a young pitcher with a good minor league track record and a shoulder injury.
True, but it was two different front offices. Hoyer traded for Rizzo both times.

As to the Gammons comment, he certainly had sway with fans and readers, but I find it kind of ridiculous to think that he ever had any impact on front offices. If a GM ever put any weight into his evaluations based off of Peter Gammons waxing about how "special" a guy was, I'd be interested to see how much longer he lasted in his job.