Belichick 2001 vs. Belichick 2016

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I've always thought that 2001 would go down in history as Bill Belichick's greatest coaching job, whatever else he did. After this season, I'm not sure that 2016 wasn't better. We argued this well into the night (well, into the morning) after the game last night. Split opinion. Some thoughts either way:

2001-For
Raw, untested QB
Very little in the way of contributors from 97, 98 and 99 drafts (Faulk, Woody and Tebucky)
Very little talent on offense
Terry Glenn Fiasco
Road AFCCG in Pittsburgh, with Brady getting hurt
Super Bowl opponent was absolutely stacked, with tons of playoff experience

2001-Against
Easy Schedule (Pre-expansion and realignment, so their OOC games included the falcons, panthers and saints, all of whom had losing records, plus 4 against the colts and bills, who were a combined 9-23).
Decent to very good talent on D-Guys like Law and Seymour (rookie, I know) went on to HoF caliber careers, plus solid guys in McGinest, Bruschi, Ted Johnson, Milloy, Vrable.
Coaching Staff-Crennel, Weis, Dante, Brad Seely (one of the best ST coaches ever, according to BB) plus Mangini, Brian Daboll, Rob Ryan-a ton of coaching talent, leadership and experience.
Adam V. (meaning he made BB's job easier)

2016-For
No GOAT for the first four games, plus Jimmy G injury, plus the whole circus atmosphere
Turnover on D-Hicks, Chandler and Collins
No Gronk for playoffs
Very unlikely that anyone else other than Brady or Gronk sniffs HoF-maybe not even Patriots Hall of Fame (Edelman?)

2016-Against
Very Easy Schedule
2 playoff games at home
Super Bowl opponent with no SB experience for players (Quinn was there with Seattle)
GOAT GOAT GOAT-mitigated to a small degree by the results with Jimmy G and healthy Jacoby, but that 4th quarter last night was something that no substitute QB pulls off.

Bottom line to me-if you dropped a league average QB onto the 2001 Pats, I think they would have still done really well, and had a deep playoff run. Maybe not a SB win, but a solid season. I think a league average QB on this year's team goes somewhere between 8-8 and 10-6, and maybe wins a home playoff game at most. I think BB did as good a coaching job, under enormous pressure, as I have ever seen in sports this season.

 

[coremiller]

Bottom line to me-if you dropped a league average QB onto the 2001 Pats, I think they would have still done really well, and had a deep playoff run.

Tom Brady was pretty much a league-average QB in 2001, so ... yeah. Brady didn't become a great QB (at least in the regular season) until 2004.

 

[Super Nomario]

Tom Brady was pretty much a league-average QB in 2001, so ... yeah. Brady didn't become a great QB (at least in the regular season) until 2004.

... statistically

 

[DJnVa]

Tom Brady was pretty much a league-average QB in 2001, so ... yeah. Brady didn't become a great QB (at least in the regular season) until 2004.

Maybe, but in his second full season he led league in TD passes and was top 10 in numerous categories. So he had moved beyond league average rather quickly.

 

[luckiestman]

01 and I don't really think it's close. Belichick has installed such a culture that if he couldn't have coached this team, the fill in against this schedule is minimum 11-5. And really, probably 14-2. And I'm not downplaying BB, I'm praising how strong the culture he built is

Think about when Switzer took over for JJ or Seifert for Walsh, something like 3 SBs.

Switz went nuts and Seifert was a zero in Carolina. So, their wins were all from the system/culture they inherited

 

[speedracer]

The SB coaching matchup is only a small part of the consideration, but imo Dan Quinn >>>>>>>> Mike Martz, who famously refused to run the ball against the Patriots' DB-heavy lineups in 01.

 

[Phil Plantier]

01 and I don't really think it's close. Belichick has installed such a culture that if he couldn't have coached this team, the fill in against this schedule is minimum 11-5.

I agree with this point: the was no In Bill We Trust in 01. No safety net. If his moves didn't pay off his job was in jeopardy.

I think the high stakes are best represented by the Bledsoe/Brady circus. Many people inside and outside the organization thought he was crazy to bench Bledsoe. That's a high stakes decision the likes of which he did not have this year.

 

[Koufax]

I don't think that Brady was only a league average QB in 2001 because the QB he replaced was above league average.

 

[InstaFace]

Yeah, there's more than one way to view QB contributions, when talking about how good Brady was at first blush. Belichick prizes ball security above all else:

INT%:
Bledsoe 1998: 2.9%
Bledsoe 1999: 3.9%
Bledsoe 2000: 2.4%
Brady 2001: 2.9%
Brady 2002: 2.3%
Brady 2003: 2.3%

Sack%:
Bledsoe 1998: 7.0%
Bledsoe 1999: 9.3%
Bledsoe 2000: 7.8%
Brady 2001: 9.0% (!)
Brady 2002: 4.9%
Brady 2003: 5.7%

ANY/A:
Bledsoe 1998: 6.01
Bledsoe 1999: 5.18
Bledsoe 2000: 4.83
Brady 2001: 5.39
Brady 2002: 5.54
Brady 2003: 5.94

 

[Stitch01]

2001 and its not really that close.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I agree with this point: the was no In Bill We Trust in 01. No safety net. If his moves didn't pay off his job was in jeopardy.

I think the high stakes are best represented by the Bledsoe/Brady circus. Many people inside and outside the organization thought he was crazy to bench Bledsoe. That's a high stakes decision the likes of which he did not have this year.

I see your point about it wasn't yet 'in bill we trust' but Kraft had just paid a heavy price for him less than two seasons previous and immediately gave him complete control. He was committed to the long term with BB, there's no way his job was in jeopardy if the moves in 2001 don't lead to a ring.

I do agree that 2001 was a better year in whatever kind of coaching evaluation you want to use. He took a bad team, schooled the league on the value of 1-53 by making so many moves beyond star players and starters and then closed the deal in the biggest upset in league history. This year was great - the suspension, Gronk injury, the trades etc - and he got hosed on COTY, but it pales in comparison.

 

[InstaFace]

they can hose him on COTY all they want, they're still going to end up renaming it the Belichick Trophy when all is said and done.