What's your guess on how much he'd get if they let him go after 2019? At least a year; otherwise, why would he sign that?
Strictly a guess, but I would say they dropped the buyout from 2 years to 1 year (~$2.5M) and probably have a minimum win figure in the deal for 2019 and 2020. If he hits the minimum wins, he gets extended for one year on the back end. If he doesn't, the school exercises its option and buys him out for $2.5M. That way, as long as he is HC, he can go into a recruits home and say he has at least 3 years on his deal and will be around. Further guessing, the school is making a decision that he does not stay beyond 2022, unless all of a sudden the team is cracking out 9-10 win seasons (and we know that will not happen). After the 2022 season, if he lasts that long, he will be 63 and will have earned at BC ~$22M as HC. Not a bad payday for a career .500 coach. They will cut him loose witha $2.5M handshake so his compensation package will max out around $25M for his BC career. If history is any guide, the team will be cranking out 7 or so wins a year and be a mid level P5 program with a 90% graduation rate. He righted the ship, no doubt. He didn't and won't get the program to where anyone wants it and for that BC will have made him a multi millionaire.
Notwithstanding all of that, I still don't see where this benefits anyone, other than BC saving $2.5M on a buyout. As stated above, if he is essentially coaching year to year, isn't this just kicking the can down the road. It won't take a genius to figure out that his position is tenuous going forward and does not solidify the OC or other coaching vacancies that may arise. No one is going to want to to come to BC knowing that they could be one and done. And what sort of guarantees are in the assistant's deals? Can they get a contract with a 2 year buyout knowing the HC only has a one year buyout? And we all know the other schools will use this as tools against BC in the recruiting wars ("It's all smoke and mirrors...they don't win 8 games next year, he's gone, etc.")
People say this is decision above Jarmond's pay grade and that may be true. If so, what does that say about the long term plans when higher ups are dictating the coaching hirings, firings, etc. I didn't see MJ hanging around much past the Capital Campaign (4-5 years). I see his exit that much sooner if his legs are being cut out from under him.