BA's Red Sox Top 10

Snodgrass'Muff

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It's behind a paywall, so you'll have to click on this link and be subscribed to see the entire write up.

1. Moncada
Scouting Report: Physically, Moncada stands out. “He could be a defensive back for Ohio State,” one scout said. That physicality lends itself to explosiveness in games, though it remains to be seen if that will manifest itself as power or in the rest of his game. At Greenville, his level swing plane created hard liners to the gaps instead of loft, meaning he might profile more as a standout two-hole hitter than a middle-of-the-order threat. Even if that proves the case, Moncada will offer plenty of impact with 10-12 homers, given bigger baserunning and defensive upside than anticipated. While he made errors in bunches at times, he made some spectacular plays at second base that showed above-average defensive potential at the position and the athleticism (and offensive profile) to move nearly anywhere but shortstop depending on team need. Though Moncada’s disciplined approach is more advanced from the left side, where his swing draws frequent comparisons with that of Robinson Cano, he put up better numbers as a righthander and shows the overall skill to be a true switch-hitter. His power projection ranges from average to plus. Moncada suffers from occasional concentration lapses, and he still needs to learn how to handle the physical rigors of a full season, but he’s a rare physical talent who engenders all kinds of daydreaming projections.
2. Devers
Scouting report: Devers launches the ball to all fields with a lefhanded swing that generates both loft and backspin. Though he hit just 11 homers in 2015, few doubt he will build on that total as he adds strength and gains a greater understanding of when to turn on pitches for pull power. Devers’ physical development will determine if he stays at third base—a position he has the hands, feet, and arm to play—or moves to first. One evaluator described him as a still-maturing player who could either shed his baby fat or who will struggle with weight in a fashion reminiscent of Pablo Sandoval. At either corner, his bat should play. He surprises evaluators with his athleticism and baserunning ability.
3. Benintendi
Scouting report: Many view Benintendi as the system’s top prospect, given that he could quickly become an above-average big leaguer. Though so small that his name is difficult to squeeze across his jersey back, he finished his pro debut at low Class A Greenville and hit a cumulative .313/.416/.556 with 11 homers and 35 walks in 54 games. Benintendi’s exceptional approach helps him unlock surprising thunder. Though he’s not a burner, he glides to the ball with advanced instincts, convincing most evaluators that he can be at least an average center field defender. He was sidelined for much of the instructional league as the Red Sox cautiously rehabbed his quadriceps injury.
4. Espinoza
Scouting Report: Espinoza’s precocious feel for a high-quality, three-pitch mix and efficient delivery are uncommon traits for a teen, to say the least. Despite his slight build, he generates striking velocity with an easy, repeatable delivery, while also featuring a curveball and changeup that grade as big league average now, with plenty of projection for improved command. The fact that Espinoza throws so hard at such a young age and with such a slight build raises questions about whether he can remain healthy. But if he can, he has obvious front-of-the-rotation talent and makeup.
5. Kopech
6. Johnson
7. Travis
8. Marrero
9. Basabe
10. Chavis

I've soured on the idea of numbered lists but that top 4 has to be in the discussion for the best collection of 4 prospects in the game. Those first 7 names probably put them in the discussion for best farm system. I'll be surprised if they've fallen out of the top 5 after the Kimbrel trade. This was easily the best system in the league before paying that price.

I'm guessing they end up with 6 or 7 on the top 100. If Travis isn't in it, he'll probably be an honorable mention.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The chat is up as well. Some of the more interesting comments, IMO.

@Jaypers413 (IL): About how far away from the bigs is Sam Travis, and is he likely to eventually become Papi's successor at DH?
Alex Speier: There’s a sense that Travis could be big league-ready by the end of this year, given his college pedigree and the impressive hit tool he showed at two levels in 2015. Not sure he’s Ortiz’s successor given that Hanley Ramirez might be better suited to DH, but certainly, Travis (along with Travis Shaw, whose nomenclaturial proximity will prove very confusing in coming years) has asserted himself as an important consideration for late-2016 and into 2017.
Frank (Chicago, IL): How high are you on Luis Alexander Basabe? About how many years away is he?
Alex Speier: He’s been a fascinating guy from the time he debuted in the DSL as a 16-year-old. His power/speed combo stands out — particularly given that he’s actually *shown* power as an 18-year-old. His ceiling would put him up there with the top five guys in the Sox’ system, but his floor is ill-defined, and there are likely to be bumps along the way as he refines his approach, so … far away.
Mark (Fargo, ND): Which Red Sox prospect has the best chance of being a MLB closer someday?
Alex Speier: Hmmmm… That might depend on whether Kopech’s changeup develops to the point of keeping him in the rotation. If he’s more of a two-pitch guy, then he’d look an awful lot like a potential closer.
@Jaypers413 (IL): About where would you have ranked Margot, Guerra and Allen, had they not been traded?
Alex Speier: I had Guerra at 5, Margot at 7, Allen at 12. I ended up writing them up for the Globe instead of BA… https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/13/closer-look-prospects-red-sox-traded-away/622IxpiHRfp21cQ3jE5g9N/story.html
Shawn Adorno (Saugerties, NY): I've heard a comp of Carlos Delgado for Rafael Devers. So hard to project power... but do you think that is his ceiling? Also, how quickly do the Red Sox feel Moncada could reach the bigs? Thanks.
Alex Speier: His ceiling is middle-of-the-order All-Star, and he has a chance to stay at third, which opens up a different array of comps. I heard comparisons to young versions of Cano, Beltre, and Sandoval. There isn’t that much imagination needed to project his power, though — I saw him demolish some pitches to straightaway CF, in a way that 18-year-olds rarely do.
Randall (Salem): What do we think the power upside on Benintendi is? Would you venture a comp?
Alex Speier: He hit 31 homers in about 110 games in college and the minors this year, so … the ultimate power upside has to be viewed as impressive, even if a more reasonable expectation would be about half that figure. Some of the comps brought up by scouts/evaluators: Mark Kotsay, LH version of Mookie Betts (small in stature but with great approach and ability to barrel the ball), Ellsbury, among others.
Ben (Rhode Island): I know it's tough to predict but who does Anderson Espinoza remind you of in today's game? And what do you see his ceiling being?
Alex Speier: His slight stature, smooth delivery, incredible power stuff, and maturity/makeup prompted a lot of people to say that he reminded them of a teenage Pedro, including Goose Gregson, the Red Sox’ Latin American pitching coordinator who worked with a 16-/17-year-old Pedro with the Dodgers. Pedro said the same. He has the makings of three plus pitches, so there’s legitimate ace potential. That’s far from a guarantee (see Bundy, Dylan), but he’s ridiculously talented at a ridiculously young age.
Raymond (New York): Hi Alex, what do you think of the cost for Kimbrel ? I think the Red Sox did quite well as they kept a lot of their better prospects and didn't lose any high draftees.(Owens,Johnson,Ball, Kopech,Bradley) thanks
Alex Speier: They preserved their complete inventory of major league cornerstone players (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Rodriguez) and their top four prospects. I’m still at least a bit surprised that three prospects of that caliber ended up getting moved (Guerra and Margot along with Asuaje wouldn’t have done it?), but I also think that the way the market values relievers is in a state of flux that requires everyone to reassess their preconceptions … in the same way that we need to stop expressing shock that “OMG, how is worth $20 million a year?” To get an elite starter along with two elite relievers while giving up two excellent prospects who happened to be at redundant positions and keeping the draft pick … the larger picture seems reasonable for what the Sox have done this offseason.
Billy Collins (Hanson): With the top 10 being loaded with positional players and Dombrowski sounding like he would like to develop pitching, should all expectations be that the Sox look for a pitcher with their top pick next year? Any suggestions on players to watch this spring that could go in the top half of the draft?
Alex Speier: Dombrowski did tend to take pitchers with his top picks in Detroit, but that wasn’t ironclad. My guess is that he’ll offer input but give Mike Rikard plenty of room to make his own call; Benintendi obviously looks like an excellent first pick by Rikard in his first year as amateur scouting director. The Sox’ philosophy has always been best player available instead of a position-based preference.
 

TheYaz67

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While I will agree with Speler's point about Sox usually taking "best player available" with their first pick, it would not at all surprise me if the approach next year is to take the "best available player (who just happens to be a pitcher)"....
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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They are picking far enough back that there probably won't be a clear "best player available" and a case will be pretty easy to make for a pitcher. Middle of the first round means a good chance for some solid value, but none of the big impact names are going to fall that far.
 

Rasputin

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I'm intrigued by the notion that a lot of folks think Benny Nintendo coulda shoulda been the top guy. I assume that's because they think he's closer to the majors. I think the top 100 is going to be interesting.

Also, I really wanna hit some Salem and Greenville games this year.
 

grimshaw

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It would not shock me at all if
a) Benitendi started in AA and got a cup of coffee in September
b) Travis was the first guy up from AAA if Hanley. Papi or Sandoval got hurt (I would assume Holt/Shaw would handle 3rd).

It's awesome to have 2 above average bats who are on the fast track because Moncada and Devers especially need quite a while still.

No national love for Travis yet, but that could change by mid-season if his power numbers trend up.
 
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Detts

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It would not shock me at all if
a) Benitendi started in AA and got a cup of coffee in September
b) Travis was the first guy up from AAA if Hanley. Papi or Sandoval got hurt (I would assume Holt/Shaw would handle 3rd).

It's awesome to have 2 above average bats who are on the fast track because Moncada and Devers especially need quite a while still.

No national love for Travis yet, but that could change by mid-season if his power numbers trend up.
I would be surprised if Benitendi skipped Salem. Moncada, on the other hand, would not surprise me.
 

JBJ_HOF

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DD already said Salem. Zero chance in hell they are playing in Portland in snow and PPD games in April and May.
 

Drek717

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It would not shock me at all if
a) Benitendi started in AA and got a cup of coffee in September
b) Travis was the first guy up from AAA if Hanley. Papi or Sandoval got hurt (I would assume Holt/Shaw would handle 3rd).

It's awesome to have 2 above average bats who are on the fast track because Moncada and Devers especially need quite a while still.

No national love for Travis yet, but that could change by mid-season if his power numbers trend up.
I wouldn't say Moncada needs quite a while still. He was shaking off rust in the first few months of last year but after that he destroyed the competition for the last two full months. He needs to move fast if for no other reason than to get him up to a level where his raw speed doesn't allow him to clown low minors pitchers and catchers. 49 SBs on 3 CS screams fast riser. Add in the high OBP, the already solid power, and the raw athleticism to play 2B, 3B, and any OF position and I'd bet Moncada is the best bet of the Greenville group to skip Salem.

Devers will be on an intentionally slower path relative to his bat as he's increasingly flashing the potential to stick at 3B. With his offensive projections that is a major game changer.

I'd imagine they'll slow down Benintendi just to make sure he isn't rushed into failure and to maximize years of control. He'll probably be on the 25 man before he'd even have been Rule 5 eligible as it is.
 

Detts

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I wouldn't say Moncada needs quite a while still. He was shaking off rust in the first few months of last year but after that he destroyed the competition for the last two full months. He needs to move fast if for no other reason than to get him up to a level where his raw speed doesn't allow him to clown low minors pitchers and catchers. 49 SBs on 3 CS screams fast riser. Add in the high OBP, the already solid power, and the raw athleticism to play 2B, 3B, and any OF position and I'd bet Moncada is the best bet of the Greenville group to skip Salem.

Devers will be on an intentionally slower path relative to his bat as he's increasingly flashing the potential to stick at 3B. With his offensive projections that is a major game changer.

I'd imagine they'll slow down Benintendi just to make sure he isn't rushed into failure and to maximize years of control. He'll probably be on the 25 man before he'd even have been Rule 5 eligible as it is.
If the Sox have to worry about protecting Benintendi from the Rule 5 draft it would mean that he is a complete bust.
 

Drek717

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If the Sox have to worry about protecting Benintendi from the Rule 5 draft it would mean that he is a complete bust.
You missed what I was saying. He'll be on the 25 man before he would ever be eligible (or be a complete bust, sure) so it behooves the Red Sox to take a somewhat slower development path with Benintendi as long as Betts/Bradley/Castillo/Young allow them to do so. Rushing Benintendi up and onto the 40 man roster for a late 2016 or even 2017 cup of coffee will only serve to start his arbitration clock that much sooner. The Sox could give him a full season at each of Salem, Portland, and Pawtucket before he'd be rule 5 eligible.
 

nighthob

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I don't think they'll leave him in the minors for three years just to delay the onset of arbitration.
 

grimshaw

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I wouldn't say Moncada needs quite a while still. He was shaking off rust in the first few months of last year but after that he destroyed the competition for the last two full months. He needs to move fast if for no other reason than to get him up to a level where his raw speed doesn't allow him to clown low minors pitchers and catchers. 49 SBs on 3 CS screams fast riser. Add in the high OBP, the already solid power, and the raw athleticism to play 2B, 3B, and any OF position and I'd bet Moncada is the best bet of the Greenville group to skip Salem.

Devers will be on an intentionally slower path relative to his bat as he's increasingly flashing the potential to stick at 3B. With his offensive projections that is a major game changer.

I'd imagine they'll slow down Benintendi just to make sure he isn't rushed into failure and to maximize years of control. He'll probably be on the 25 man before he'd even have been Rule 5 eligible as it is.
From Speier's chat:

Tyler (North Carolina): When is the earliest you can see Moncada and Benintendi, both of whom look to be on the fast-track to the majors, especially Benintendi? Could both be on the 2017 roster?
Alex Speier: Some evaluators think there’s a chance that either of them could blow up in 2016 in a way that could have them flying to the big leagues. I think 2017 is more realistic, especially for Moncada.

Without having read that my guess would have been 2017 for Moncada for defensive seasoning, dealing with a shitty winter and adjusting to a level with top prospects. And maybe after the September playoffs (if they qualitfy) for Benitendi. They aren't being deliberate with Benitendi because he will have started his 3rd level in April with just a few hundred at bats. He was one of the most polished players in the draft and JBJ could be the only guy blocking him. They are most definitely not the type of franchise to worry about micromanaging service time - and Dombrowski has no history of that either.

Buy ya - agree on Devers. Could be late 2017/early 2018.
 

nighthob

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Devers they are certainly going to be more deliberate with given that they need to clean out the Pabley Ramiroval section of the locker room and that they want him wrecking pitching as a middle of the order bat. I definitely see him as more a 40 man call up in '17 with movement onto the roster full time in '18. If Devers really can play third, and Travis takes over at first, that OF is going to get awfully crowded awfully fast.
 

Drek717

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I don't think they'll leave him in the minors for three years just to delay the onset of arbitration.
Me either, but they could if they were so inclined, so why rush him up? He can follow the same schedule as Sam Travis. Start in Salem next spring. If he's killing it there he moves up by mid season to Portland. He would go back to Portland for the start of 2017 with a distinct chance of moving up to Pawtucket within a few months. Then he either A. finishes the rest of 2017 in Pawtucket before replacing Chris Young the next season, or B. fills a pressing need for the 2017 club if that's the state of things. He doesn't need to skip Salem just because he might crush Salem pitching. Let him crush. I'm not saying they should go out of their way to stall his arb. clock, but there's no point in putting him on an overly aggressive track just because he might be able to handle it. Late 2017 is an ideal ETA for him based on current 25 man contracts and doesn't require him to skip any levels.

From Speier's chat:

Tyler (North Carolina): When is the earliest you can see Moncada and Benintendi, both of whom look to be on the fast-track to the majors, especially Benintendi? Could both be on the 2017 roster?
Alex Speier: Some evaluators think there’s a chance that either of them could blow up in 2016 in a way that could have them flying to the big leagues. I think 2017 is more realistic, especially for Moncada.

Without having read that my guess would have been 2017 for Moncada for defensive seasoning, dealing with a shitty winter and adjusting to a level with top prospects. And maybe after the September playoffs (if they qualitfy) for Benitendi. They aren't being deliberate with Benitendi because he will have started his 3rd level in April with just a few hundred at bats. He was one of the most polished players in the draft and JBJ could be the only guy blocking him. They are most definitely not the type of franchise to worry about micromanaging service time - and Dombrowski has no history of that either.

Buy ya - agree on Devers. Could be late 2017/early 2018.
I'd agree on Moncada's ETA but I don't think Benintendi will be especially far off (as outlined above). Moncada will quite possibly demand a similar schedule as Bentinendi and Travis as his raw athleticism, namely his speed, has allowed him to run wild on low minors pitchers and catchers. The ability for P&Cs to stop the running game isn't much better in the Carolina League than the South Atlantic. If he picks up 2016 where he left off in 2015, stealing 20 bags a month and legging out hits on grounders/stretching singles into doubles all due to a defense too inexperienced to make him play honest he's going to need a promotion to AA just as badly as Benintendi. At that point it'll all be controlled by how they hit upper minors pitching from there.
 

smastroyin

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With two huge caveats:
1) The Red Sox have graduated a bunch of guys and have a strong collection of 25 and under guys in Boston already (Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Bradley, Owens)
2) There is some overlap positionally and using guys in trades is a way to alleviate that.

I will say that I'm not as super high on this list as Snod is, or probably even BA. Moncada is a really good prospect but I think a pretty solid step behind Betts and Bogaerts in terms of being the top prospect. I like Benintendi as well. Those two seem to be the best combination of both ceiling and floor. Devers I think has a higher ceiling than both, but it's hard to know if he'll reach it. his floor is still not really established IMO. Espinoza may be even higher than Devers, but his future is that much more cloudy given his age and his being a pitcher. But, that's a really solid top 4.

I'm just not as huge on the 5-10 here. Kopech I hope but I want to see what happens after suspension. I'm not a huge steroid believer or anything, but if the guy had to take stuff to keep up with being able to be a big leaguer (whatever it was) then there could be problems in his future. At any rate, his development is a bit stalled. Johnson is a high floor guy I guess but he seemed like a Wade Miley in waiting before his injury, and you know, elbow injuries don't really increase a player's ceiling and he's already 25. I know Snod and some others love Travis but I would happily trade him for a dozen 1B prospects around baseball even after his solid AA showing. Marrero is another high floor guy, people I think overrate him based on the assumption that everyone else undervalues defense. The problem with that is that if everyone else undervalues defense it is hard to find a way to get value for him, if he really has that value. Basabe is a ceiling guy, obviously, and I guess Chavis is too, but like Trey Ball before him, Chavis is living off of pre-draft rep and scouting as opposed to what he's been doing in the pros. I think he has a pretty high flame-out risk, though obviously we are a ways away from having to make any decisions.
 

pantsparty

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I'm not a huge steroid believer or anything, but if the guy had to take stuff to keep up with being able to be a big leaguer (whatever it was) then there could be problems in his future.
He got suspended for a stimulant rather than a traditional steroid. If you're inclined to take the favorable outlook, the drug, Oxilofrine, is one that sometimes gets included in over-the-counter supplements and in the past has been included in products without being on the label. It's also possible that he's a dirty cheat, but I'm hoping he just didn't fully research what he was taking.
 

Tangled Up In Red

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He got suspended for a stimulant rather than a traditional steroid. If you're inclined to take the favorable outlook, the drug, Oxilofrine, is one that sometimes gets included in over-the-counter supplements and in the past has been included in products without being on the label. It's also possible that he's a dirty cheat, but I'm hoping he just didn't fully research what he was taking.
On my phone, so limited searching, but who is this in reference to?
 

grimshaw

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Kind of agree with Smas, in that beyond the top 4 it thins out considerably. IMO, the loss of the guys in the Kimbrel deal moves them out of consideration for the best farm in baseball. Though Chavis and Kopech moving towards blue chip status could change things a bit

Chavis is 20, so the struggles last year can be expected, but the plate discipline (.277 obp) and whiff rate (144 in 409 ABs is more than a little alarming. Hopefully he takes baby steps this year.

Pitching depth is a bit of a concern beyond Owens and Johnson as there is a huge gap between AAA and Low A. I don't know what to think of Ball yet, but Stanky hasn't taken a step forward and Isla struggled in high A and is 23 already.

The top end talent is just about unmatched, but you can finally see the bottom of their depth.
 
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smastroyin

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He got suspended for a stimulant rather than a traditional steroid. If you're inclined to take the favorable outlook, the drug, Oxilofrine, is one that sometimes gets included in over-the-counter supplements and in the past has been included in products without being on the label. It's also possible that he's a dirty cheat, but I'm hoping he just didn't fully research what he was taking.

Just for the record I am not one to call anyone a dirty cheat for PEDs in baseball. I have zero interest in the moral argument.

But, my point on Kopech is more practical. If he was using stimulants just to deal with the grind, then he could experience a bit of a step back if he can't touch them anymore. I'm cautious about his future until he comes out and pitches for a couple months.
 

Marciano490

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Just for the record I am not one to call anyone a dirty cheat for PEDs in baseball. I have zero interest in the moral argument.

But, my point on Kopech is more practical. If he was using stimulants just to deal with the grind, then he could experience a bit of a step back if he can't touch them anymore. I'm cautious about his future until he comes out and pitches for a couple months.
It's really not a supplement you would use on your own. It's in some supplement stuff and fat burners, and I took a lot of that crap at that age for an "edge" before realizing a cup or two of coffee was just as effective and didn't make me as jittery or prone to being out of breath.

I've never heard of an athlete using oxilofrine on its own, and I've never seen someone perform worse because they stopped using an energy supplement or fat burner and instead switched to straight up coffee.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Given he was a scrawny high school guy, I assumed it was something mixed in to some kind of supplement to build bulk, as opposed to a fat burner or energy source.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I hate to bring up the age old question but regarding Moncada......where would we play him?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I have to love the ceiling on Kopech. His SP profile reminds me a lot of Bard, and while there's obviously a cautionary tale in that comp, there's also a lot of promise.

Travis seems like one of those guys who gets underrated because he lacks a marquee skill; he doesn't have a 1B-ish power ceiling, but he doesn't profile as a GG defender either. But the skills he has shown so far seem to put him in the Bob Watson/Jeff Conine family: slightly undersized R/R first basemen with middling power but above-average contact, discipline, and BABIP. Kevin Millar was also of this general ilk, though he had more power and lower BABIPs (more of a flyball hitter). This is the kind of lineup-deepening, tough-out hitter that made the 2003-04 Sox so relentless. Travis may not turn out to be that guy, but if he does, that would make him a fine complement to the more athletic talents of the Sox' other emerging young players.

The tricky thing about him is that he doesn't seem to have the athletic profile to play anywhere but 1B, so he needs to be good enough to start there or there may not be a roster spot for him. In that sense, he's a bit like Lavarnway.
 

nvalvo

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Given he was a scrawny high school guy, I assumed it was something mixed in to some kind of supplement to build bulk, as opposed to a fat burner or energy source.
And that's what he said in his statement about his suspension: that this stuff would be something someone would take as part of a program to lose weight, and he's been trying to gain.

In other words, it was probably an accident.
 

pantsparty

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Was anyone else underwhelmed by Devers this year? His OPS by month: .687, .970, .637, .742, .694, 1.098 (in 7 games), and his BB% was 4.7 - one awesome month and a hot streak at the end with a lot of meh, not really numbers that scream "middle of the order bat." Or maybe I'm underestimating just how hard it is to have completed single A as an 18-year old?
 

billy ashley

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Was anyone else underwhelmed by Devers this year? His OPS by month: .687, .970, .637, .742, .694, 1.098 (in 7 games), and his BB% was 4.7 - one awesome month and a hot streak at the end with a lot of meh, not really numbers that scream "middle of the order bat." Or maybe I'm underestimating just how hard it is to have completed single A as an 18-year old?

2 things-

Yeah, I think you're underestimating how impressive it is for an 18 year old to hold his own in the Sal. It's actually pretty rare, and Devers did more than hold his own.

Secondly, the thing that is most exciting about Devers is not his stat line. Most reports have him driving the ball all over the park, displaying easy power, as a teenager. That's super unusual. While you're right, his aggressive approach is something to monitor, it's clear that he's a much better hitter than he should be, given his age.

You're not going to see 18 year olds dominate the Sal that often. It happens with guys like Harper, but what Devers did and how he did it are really exciting. Also, he sounds like he could stick at 3b, which is also pretty cool.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Was anyone else underwhelmed by Devers this year? His OPS by month: .687, .970, .637, .742, .694, 1.098 (in 7 games), and his BB% was 4.7 - one awesome month and a hot streak at the end with a lot of meh, not really numbers that scream "middle of the order bat." Or maybe I'm underestimating just how hard it is to have completed single A as an 18-year old?

While his walk rate wasn't great, his strikeout rate of only 16.5% is promising as someone who portends to be a power hitter. He's not chasing junk, he's just aggressive. If he can be a bit more selective or can ride a higher than norm BABIP he will be more than fine. He makes solid contact and yeah, he's only 18. There's nothing to worry about here.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Jun 30, 2006
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Was anyone else underwhelmed by Devers this year? His OPS by month: .687, .970, .637, .742, .694, 1.098 (in 7 games), and his BB% was 4.7 - one awesome month and a hot streak at the end with a lot of meh, not really numbers that scream "middle of the order bat." Or maybe I'm underestimating just how hard it is to have completed single A as an 18-year old?
It's very, very rare to dominate A-ball as an 18-year old. When people talk about great prospects, it's almost as though there needs to be an asterisk with the "*not Mike Trout or Bryce Harper category" caveat. These two guys may be the A-Rod and Griffey of the day, but there were (and are) a lot of other great hitters who won't tear it up in A-ball and reach MLB as a teenager. After all, neither David Ortiz nor Manny Ramirez even reached A-ball as an 18-year old.

Miguel Cabrera, for example, hit .268/.328/.382 (.709 OPS) in 465 at-bats as an 18-year old in Florida's A-ball affiliate in 2001, and Baseball America still ranked him as the Marlins #2 prospect (#9 in Midwest League, #38 overall) afterward. Devers' line of .288/.329/.443 in 469 at-bats compares favorably, with more doubles and HR from contact offsetting the lower walk rate. If Cabrera walked a bit more (+.019 isoD), Devers drove the ball a bit harder when he connected (+.041 isoP).

Minus the alcoholism and legal troubles, that'd be an awful nice career arc to follow. Of course, even if hitting the triple crown and earning $200MM is Devers' ceiling, it's also completely unfair to expect that level of success. It's such a long, long row to hoe.

[edit:] The other, and probably the most important thing about Devers as a hitter that stands out, is how his swing generates loft and carry. There are very few prospects in the system who feature natural loft. Devers and Chavis are the only two I can think of immediately, and Chavis was both a year older in A-ball and struck out almost twice as often (with similar low walk totals).

Most prospects have a level swing path that maximizes contact and generates gap-to-gap power instead. That's important, though, because it suggests that since Devers can already control the zone with reasonable strikeout rates, as he gets stronger with age his doubles should naturally carry farther and become HR, without requiring him to make the sort of significant swing-mechanics changes that derailed Cecchini, for example.
 
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