Are you worried about the Red Sox?

Well, are you

  • 1. Not at All worried

  • 2. Just a tiny bit

  • 3. Getting there

  • 4. It's appropriate to be concerned

  • 5. Depends on the last bit of news I got

  • 6. Yeah, I'm worried

  • 7. Who needs fingernails?

  • 8. I am staying away from chicken and beer

  • 9. Fuck Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone

  • 10. Kill me now.


Results are only viewable after voting.
Status
Not open for further replies.

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
I suspect this lead is going to give Cora the leeway needed to take the foot off the pedal for the next month. I keep thinking Cleveland has had a semi-permanent built in advantage being in the Central.

Thing is, Boone may be thinking the same way and just take his chances of clobbering the A's or Astros in Yankee Stadium (I assume) versus burning out his injured and over-stressed team on the small chance they can almost sweep their way into the division.

Baseball could see only 1 AL race down the stretch unless the Yankees are vying for home field in the Wild Card. We're about to see how smart these managers are.

Edit: I really hope September allows Cora to re-birth relievers (primarily) and starters. The pen looks spent.
 

rhswanzey

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 17, 2017
111
Monmouth, ME
Didn’t see a trade deadline thread (for good reason), so I figured I’d drop here that I’ve had secret hopes for an Aug 31 deal for Donaldson for the past couple days. He’s owed about $4m the rest of the season, most of which he has missed with a calf injury. He cleared waivers; I guess if we were really interested, we would have just put in a claim.

The appeal is that as strong as the position player corps is and as much infield depth as we now have, Donaldson has easy 5 WAR upside when healthy and is a well regarded defender, a righty bat who destroys lefties. I don’t think Devers is a problem at all, but as much as he is a core LT player, in win-or-go-home mode, complementing him against lefties and late for defense is something we already sometimes do there with Nunez. A healthy Donaldson might be a full time starter and push Devers to a bench role.

Postseason roster casualty to carry Donaldson and the 13 position player locks would be 3rd catcher (Vazquez), or 8th reliever (BJ, Workman, Thornburg, Pomeranz).

Probably overkill, but an 8th inning guy isn’t getting traded to us today, and that guy may be Brasier anyway. Donaldson is unique in that the upside is there to justify a less than clean roster fit. Not sure it is worth the cash and token vaguely prospect types to roll the dice on a slight platoon upgrade from Nunez and losing a 3rd catcher or 8th reliever, but a great enough player where I think you’ve got to consider it.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Absolutely worried probably about a 6 out of 10. Not about the division but how far this team will get in the playoffs. The bullpen is absolutely awful.
 
The bullpen is absolutely awful.
I just don't understand this. The Red Sox team bullpen rankings in fWAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WHIP are 6th, 6th, 5th, 6th, and 10th in MLB. AL only they rank 4th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 6th.

And if you believe in "clutchness", Red Sox team bullpen WPA is 2nd in the AL and 3rd in the MLB, with 4th in the AL and 8th in MLB in "clutch". The only team in the AL with better bullpen WPA is the Athletics, who have an insane 6.89 bullpen clutch.

I don't see how an examination of the stats or an examination of bullpen effect on win probability could reasonably lead to the conclusion that the Sox pen is anything worse then decent, let alone "absolutely awful".

The Red Sox batters are first in the AL in WAR, wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and wRAA. Red Sox starters ranks in WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WHIP are 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 4th in the AL. Red Sox starters are also 3rd in the AL in WPA despite having negative clutch (-.37).

If you think the sox pen is absolutely awful, then shouldn't our rotation be absolutely awful too? Their AL stat ranks are very similar to the bullpen's ranks.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
The bullpen has been slumping of late because the bullpen is gassed because 2/5s of the rotation has been on the DL. Reinforcements are coming as soon as tomorrow (ERod). Still plenty of time to wrap up the division and get key bullpen guys rested and refocused for October.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
The bullpen has been slumping of late because the bullpen is gassed because 2/5s of the rotation has been on the DL. Reinforcements are coming as soon as tomorrow (ERod). Still plenty of time to wrap up the division and get key bullpen guys rested and refocused for October.
Speier agrees
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/08/31/the-red-sox-bullpen-gassed-but-relief-for-relievers-way/oQLmIcMTAairO0c698120J/story.html


The bullpen is absolutely awful.
Kimbrel and Barnes are definitely struggling. Hembree is sort of meh lately. Kelly seems post-slump (but no one will ever let him forget about that slump). Brasier seems not slumpy. Workman had a rough patch at the beginning of the month but was good before and after that. Thornburg has been effective far more often than not since his really bad game against the Tigers 6 weeks ago (but Im not sold on his ability to be effective with heavy use).

That is a long way from absolutely awful.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Speier agrees
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/08/31/the-red-sox-bullpen-gassed-but-relief-for-relievers-way/oQLmIcMTAairO0c698120J/story.html




Kimbrel and Barnes are definitely struggling. Hembree is sort of meh lately. Kelly seems post-slump (but no one will ever let him forget about that slump). Brasier seems not slumpy. Workman had a rough patch at the beginning of the month but was good before and after that. Thornburg has been effective far more often than not since his really bad game against the Tigers 6 weeks ago (but Im not sold on his ability to be effective with heavy use).

That is a long way from absolutely awful.
We need to put it into the proper context. On paper the pen is fine. But if you actually watch how they react in key moments the same players fail time and time again. We didn’t need the most recent Matt Barnes slump to tell us he urinates all over himself in clutch situations. Nor did we need Hembree’s recent woes to tell us he is meh. I like Brasier. He’s the Austin Maddox of this years team. A guy who comes in and breathes life into the pen.

Kelly probably has the best arm sans Kimbrel but he is inconsistent in harnessing his stuff. Thornburg has been better lately. Unfortunately there’s a lot more questions than there should be. Barnes is not the answer in any critical situation and until they find that answer the pen itself will be a bunch of empty stats.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,260
in reply to something on the last page: Price worry should be a 2 or 3. There was no further damage found on further examination besides the bruise, and they don't want him to bat in an NL park with it.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Did a quick dirty takeoff of the August bullpen (including last night). Overall stats (+/-):

Innings: 87.1
Hits: 75
Walks: 37
WHIP: 1.28
Runs: 38
ERA: 3.92

Things that stand out:
  • 1/2 the games saw the BP pitching 4 innings or more
  • 2/3 of the time the pen gave up at least 1 walk
  • 2/3 of the time the pen gave up at least 1 run
That span includes some gems:
4 IP / 0 runs (twice)
3 IP / 0 runs
5 IP / 1 run

and some garbage:
5 IP / 4 runs
6 IP / 4 runs
3 IP / 4 runs
4 IP / 7 runs

I guess if you throw out the garbage (typically where the starter failed), things look better

I dunno.
 

Spelunker

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
11,884
We need to put it into the proper context. On paper the pen is fine. But if you actually watch how they react in key moments the same players fail time and time again. We didn’t need the most recent Matt Barnes slump to tell us he urinates all over himself in clutch situations. Nor did we need Hembree’s recent woes to tell us he is meh. I like Brasier. He’s the Austin Maddox of this years team. A guy who comes in and breathes life into the pen.

Kelly probably has the best arm sans Kimbrel but he is inconsistent in harnessing his stuff. Thornburg has been better lately. Unfortunately there’s a lot more questions than there should be. Barnes is not the answer in any critical situation and until they find that answer the pen itself will be a bunch of empty stats.
The numbers take our emotion, bias, and closeness out of it, and they say that the pen urinates on itself less than most teams.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
We need to put it into the proper context. On paper the pen is fine. But if you actually watch how they react in key moments the same players fail time and time again. We didn’t need the most recent Matt Barnes slump to tell us he urinates all over himself in clutch situations. Nor did we need Hembree’s recent woes to tell us he is meh. I like Brasier. He’s the Austin Maddox of this years team. A guy who comes in and breathes life into the pen.

Kelly probably has the best arm sans Kimbrel but he is inconsistent in harnessing his stuff. Thornburg has been better lately. Unfortunately there’s a lot more questions than there should be. Barnes is not the answer in any critical situation and until they find that answer the pen itself will be a bunch of empty stats.
So when you ignore how they've actually pitched, they really suck. Got it
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
So when you ignore how they've actually pitched, they really suck. Got it
That’s an interesting way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that Barnes has an ERA of 5 over the last 30 games. Hembree has one of about 4 with a bad WHIP. It doesn’t get any better when you look at Kelly and marginally better with Thornburg. Problem is that those guys are the ones who are tasked at getting the game to Kimbrel in the 9th.
This pen has been together long enough to know what it is. It’s a decent pen when you aren’t asking it to protect a slim lead. If you trust any of these guys to come in and protect a lead in October I don’t know what to tell you. I just hope they make Brasier the 8th inning guy since he’s the only shot they have at actually having a bridge to Kimbrel. Kimbrel will be fine but he might end up throwing more innings than last year or at least close to it.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,069
Hingham, MA
That’s an interesting way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that Barnes has an ERA of 5 over the last 30 games. Hembree has one of about 4 with a bad WHIP. It doesn’t get any better when you look at Kelly and marginally better with Thornburg. Problem is that those guys are the ones who are tasked at getting the game to Kimbrel in the 9th.
This pen has been together long enough to know what it is. It’s a decent pen when you aren’t asking it to protect a slim lead. If you trust any of these guys to come in and protect a lead in October I don’t know what to tell you. I just hope they make Brasier the 8th inning guy since he’s the only shot they have at actually having a bridge to Kimbrel. Kimbrel will be fine but he might end up throwing more innings than last year or at least close to it.
I am 100% on the same page. Fatal flaw.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
Did a quick dirty takeoff of the August bullpen (including last night). Overall stats (+/-):

Innings: 87.1
Hits: 75
Walks: 37
WHIP: 1.28
Runs: 38
ERA: 3.92

Things that stand out:
  • 1/2 the games saw the BP pitching 4 innings or more
  • 2/3 of the time the pen gave up at least 1 walk
  • 2/3 of the time the pen gave up at least 1 run
That span includes some gems:
4 IP / 0 runs (twice)
3 IP / 0 runs
5 IP / 1 run

and some garbage:
5 IP / 4 runs
6 IP / 4 runs
3 IP / 4 runs
4 IP / 7 runs

I guess if you throw out the garbage (typically where the starter failed), things look better

I dunno.
No matter how you put it, the bullpen isn't exactly trending upward as we get toward the most important time of the season.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
That’s an interesting way of looking at it. Another way of looking at it is that Barnes has an ERA of 5 over the last 30 games. Hembree has one of about 4 with a bad WHIP. It doesn’t get any better when you look at Kelly and marginally better with Thornburg. Problem is that those guys are the ones who are tasked at getting the game to Kimbrel in the 9th.
This pen has been together long enough to know what it is. It’s a decent pen when you aren’t asking it to protect a slim lead. If you trust any of these guys to come in and protect a lead in October I don’t know what to tell you. I just hope they make Brasier the 8th inning guy since he’s the only shot they have at actually having a bridge to Kimbrel. Kimbrel will be fine but he might end up throwing more innings than last year or at least close to it.
No shit that Barnes is slumping. And kimbrel. No one is saying otherwise. (Although i also get the sense that Barnes could have a zero ERA with 200 strikeouts and you still wouldn't "trust him.")

Hembree is who he always was.....if he's higher than the 4th best option, something's wrong. He's being overexposed.

Kelly hasn't had a bad game in over a month.....15 appearances ago.
Brasier is solid.
I'm not sure how the phrase "marginally better with Thornburg" can be written unless you're comparing it to gangrene.

Get the starters right so they only need 2 or 3 relievers in a game instead of 4-5 and things should improve.

They can survive Barnes going off the cliff if kimbrel isn't with him.
 

oumbi

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2006
4,167
Updates on the Sox injury crowd. Maybe this will dampen the worries that float around this thread. This is from Sox prospects:

  • On Wednesday night, Christian Vazquez (finger) was 2 for 4 in a rehab stint with Pawtucket while Rafael Devers (hamstring) went 1 for 3 with a run scored and a double. On Tuesday, Vazquez caught knuckleballer Steven Wright (knee), who went two hitless innings with a walk and a strikeout for the PawSox. On Monday, Vazquez had his first rehab assignment with Portland, and the catcher played five innings behind the plate and went 1 for 2 at the dish with a two-run double and RBI sacrifice fly. Eduardo Rodriguez (ankle) made his lone rehab start on Monday, going four innings, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out six.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
No shit that Barnes is slumping. And kimbrel. No one is saying otherwise. (Although i also get the sense that Barnes could have a zero ERA with 200 strikeouts and you still wouldn't "trust him.")

Hembree is who he always was.....if he's higher than the 4th best option, something's wrong. He's being overexposed.

Kelly hasn't had a bad game in over a month.....15 appearances ago.
Brasier is solid.
I'm not sure how the phrase "marginally better with Thornburg" can be written unless you're comparing it to gangrene.

Get the starters right so they only need 2 or 3 relievers in a game instead of 4-5 and things should improve.

They can survive Barnes going off the cliff if kimbrel isn't with him.
We’ve had multiple years of putting Barnes in the exact same situations expecting a different result and being disappointed. So as an 8th inning option I do not trust him. Not one bit. If Kimbrel goes down then Barnes is the closer. How would you feel about that scenario? This would be a different conversation all together if they had a stable guy to bridge to Kimbrel. Kelly has been used in the lowest pressure situations possible to “get right” which they absolutely need to have happen. Kelly and Thornburg have been better lately so maybe they try him in the 8th again. Sure you can blame this on the starters not being healthy and you’d be right to a certain extent. All that being said the same crap has happened the last couple years. Right now Hembree is a critical piece to the pen. That’s a problem. As it stands this team has a bunch of good 6th/7th inning options. They need someone that can set up Kimbrel and can close when he needs rest. They do not have that pitcher on the roster.

Maybe things work out once they throw Evoldi into the pen. I just feel we have the same exact conversation on a yearly basis hoping that the pen will get right for the playoffs and then the entire pitching staff chokes. This team is very clutch and at times one of the best I’ve ever seen. But this bullpen cannot stop a nose bleed right now. Point to all the empty stats you want about it being the 6th best but it doesn’t change the fact this team has a serious issue and needs to find a resolution to the 8th inning in a hurry. Otherwise the Red Sox will be bounced in the first round again.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
So as an 8th inning option I do not trust him. Not one bit.
He does not trust him with a Lead,
He does not trust him, like a Thneed,
He does not trust him with a Tie,
He does not trust him to get by.
He does not trust him close and late,
He does not trust him near the plate,
He does not trust him to get K's,
He does not trust him, anyways.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,958
Saskatoon Canada
I am worried Price is the only starter to give more than 5 innings for two weeks and he just go hurt. I know rose colored glasses people ponit out he is fine, but no structural damage does not guarantee his injury will not affect him.

This includes 2 Evoldi stinkers, 2 time Porcello got rocked early then "rallied" to get through 5.
The starting pitching i making the pen look worse, and get worse.

Since Price's gem vs Cleveland, starting pitchers

upload_2018-9-1_9-46-20.png
 

Attachments

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Keeping focus on regular season. SP is likely the biggest problem. 26 games left, don't see Price + Sale starting more than 4 to 5 of them, which increases the pressure on everyone else, esp the pen.

Some of the upcoming series look ugly. Hope they can grind out some wins in them and continue to handle the weak opponents on the schedule.

It's likely to be a race of space against time, and triage outside the medical tent. Cannot go to the same guys in the pen for 4 to 5 innings each game.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
Yes, I don't think Eovaldi has discovered something new, this is just the type of guy that he is. Dominant in some games and really hittable in others. Results wise very similar to what we have been getting from Brian Johnson. A valuable piece but we need some other guys to step up and make some strong starts. Really looking forward to Eduardo coming back, and I have always been really optimistic about Wright's "potential", so hopefully we will be able to string a few strong games together.

The Yankees are human and I am still confident that we will take the division. "Best record ever" questions always seemed a little premature and I am glad that they have almost entirely disappeared. Keep guys fresh, compete everyday, and get ready for the postseason. Mookie seems to be coming out of his slump and a hot Mookie and JDM can dig us out of a lot of holes
 

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
5,299
Not worried at all. This season feels a lot like 2007. That year they came out of the gates like gangbusters and had essentially clinched a playoff spot by the All-star break. Then they took their foot off the gas and gave guys extra rest in August and September. By the end of the season the Yankees cut the division lead down to 2. (Which didn't matter in those days of only one wild card.) Mike Lowell led the team in games played with 154, the only player on the team with more than 150 games played. In contrast, the Yankees had 5 players play 150 or more, the Indians had 4, including Sizemore who played all 162, and the Angels had 2.

There was a lot of concern about their poor second half, but as soon as the playoffs started they went right back to their dominant selves. They swept the Angels with little trouble, and then we all remember the ALCS comeback from down 3-1. Three straight blowouts, and I have no doubt that all the extra rest the Sox players had was a factor. The combined margin of the last 3 games was 30-5. Then they swept the outmatched Rockies.

They're following the same pattern this year. Their safe lead is letting them rest players and be extra cautious with injured players. This will pay off greatly in the playoffs.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,048
Does the fact that Houston sucks (relatively speaking: .522) at home and is playing .691 ball on the road have any bearing on what we should want to happen?
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
We’ve had multiple years of putting Barnes in the exact same situations expecting a different result and being disappointed. So as an 8th inning option I do not trust him. Not one bit. If Kimbrel goes down then Barnes is the closer. How would you feel about that scenario? This would be a different conversation all together if they had a stable guy to bridge to Kimbrel. Kelly has been used in the lowest pressure situations possible to “get right” which they absolutely need to have happen. Kelly and Thornburg have been better lately so maybe they try him in the 8th again. Sure you can blame this on the starters not being healthy and you’d be right to a certain extent. All that being said the same crap has happened the last couple years. Right now Hembree is a critical piece to the pen. That’s a problem. As it stands this team has a bunch of good 6th/7th inning options. They need someone that can set up Kimbrel and can close when he needs rest. They do not have that pitcher on the roster.

Maybe things work out once they throw Evoldi into the pen. I just feel we have the same exact conversation on a yearly basis hoping that the pen will get right for the playoffs and then the entire pitching staff chokes. This team is very clutch and at times one of the best I’ve ever seen. But this bullpen cannot stop a nose bleed right now. Point to all the empty stats you want about it being the 6th best but it doesn’t change the fact this team has a serious issue and needs to find a resolution to the 8th inning in a hurry. Otherwise the Red Sox will be bounced in the first round again.
Why do you think Barnes would be the closer if kimbrel goes down? Do you not think Cora's been noticing?

And why do you keep saying Thornburg has been better lately.?
Do you watch the games or did you make up your mind about the relievers before the season!
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Why do you think Barnes would be the closer if kimbrel goes down? Do you not think Cora's been noticing?

And why do you keep saying Thornburg has been better lately.?
Do you watch the games or did you make up your mind about the relievers before the season!
I have a ticket package. So yes I watch the games. I keep saying it because if you take out the 3 runs he allowed to Chicago he has been. At least compared to when he first came back from injury. Has he been good? No. Is he a decent option in the 6th or 7th inning? Sure. Depending on matchups of course.

I also keep saying Barnes would be the defecto closer since he’s the guy who generally pitches in the 8th inning. Logic would dictate it’s him. Despite the fact he’s a horrible option as a set up guy to Kimbrel. So once again we have good options Incase the starters can’t go 7 innings and we need someone to pitch in the 6th. Do the Boston Redsox have someone that can get the game to Kimbrel? Absolutely not! They cannot survive if someone isn’t able to get the lead to Kimbrel.
 

judyb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
4,444
Wilmington MA
It seems like Brasier's already taken the 8th inning role when the game's close and he's available, he was already warming up when it was still close to pitch the 8th in that game where they took that huge lead in the 7th, the next game he pitched the 8th when it was tied. I could see them trying to avoid using him last night after he'd pitched in back to back games and that game wasn't so close anymore by the time they got to the 8th. The last game before those Barnes pitched the 8th was the one where Brasier wasn't available because his foot was sore.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
It seems like Brasier's already taken the 8th inning role when the game's close and he's available, he was already warming up when it was still close to pitch the 8th in that game where they took that huge lead in the 7th, the next game he pitched the 8th when it was tied. I could see them trying to avoid using him last night after he'd pitched in back to back games and that game wasn't so close anymore by the time they got to the 8th. The last game before those Barnes pitched the 8th was the one where Brasier wasn't available because his foot was sore.
Right.
Cora has the tv package too, it seems.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
He does not trust him with a Lead,
He does not trust him, like a Thneed,
He does not trust him with a Tie,
He does not trust him to get by.
He does not trust him close and late,
He does not trust him near the plate,
He does not trust him to get K's,
He does not trust him, anyways.
This post needs some love.
 

ponch73

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2006
870
Stumptown via Chelmsford
A few things to keep in mind when the urge to worry (or at least grumble) is irresistible (and I say that self-referentially after schlepping the family to a rather unpleasant game today book-ended by the interminable Hawk Harrelson and a hideous no-show by the offense):

1. Red Sox are 42-27 in games started by pitchers other than Sale, Price or ERod. That's a .609 winning percentage, which represents a 98-99 win pace for the season. Imagine getting 98 or 99 wins with only your 4-9 starters (Porcello, Pom, Wright, BJ, Velazquez, Eovaldi/Beeks). That's Belichick-esque.
2. A struggling and overtaxed August bullpen is not necessarily a proxy for a playoff bullpen where starters can get through the 5th inning. Barnes could become a 6th inning guy. And a back end of the bullpen of Eovaldi, Brasier and Kimbrel is hard-throwing, to say the least.
3. Is there any reason why Rick Porcello couldn't slot into a Lance McCullers 2017 postseason type of role?
4. We still don't know what we have in Steven Wright this year. He had a 2.25 ERA (4 ER / 16 IP / 6 appearances ) as a reliever to start out the season.
5. Our 1-3 starters have thrown 408.2 IP (average of 136.1 IP apiece) thus far this year. They will not collectively get to 500 IP by the end of September, which suggests that they will be reasonably well-rested for the playoffs.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
I'm putting a bow on it. There's no realistic way the Yankees catch up and take first. They're not playing good baseball (somehow worse than the Sox are presently).
Time to get the "postseason discussion" threads going- rosters and who are opponent is likely to be in the first round matchup (Wild Card winner).
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,776
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
I just so badly want the Sox to keep this thing at 8 plus games long enough so they can just stop pressing and get fully healthy for the playoffs over the last couple weeks. They need to be better than this for the playoffs
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,863
St. Louis, MO
The Sox can now go 11-12 in their remaining games and the Yankees would need to go 20-4 to catch up.

I'm not putting a bow on it yet. But I've definitely downgraded to about a 1.25.
They have one play left in the book to catch the Sox. Sweep all 6 games. That’s only realistic chance. Even 5 of 6 only nets them 3 games off the lead and would still need to make up 5 over other 17 games.
 

soxin6

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
7,028
Huntington Beach, CA
Does the fact that Houston sucks (relatively speaking: .522) at home and is playing .691 ball on the road have any bearing on what we should want to happen?
Unless you would like the Sox to become the wildcard team, there isn't any point in thinking about this. The Astros aren't going to catch the Red Sox unless the Sox go into a huge slump. If that happens, they could still lose the division. I would rather just have the best record and home field throughout. Even though the team isn't all back, this weekend could give us some insight to how things might go with the Astros. Of course, they will need to get past the Indians to worry about the Sox.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,048
Unless you would like the Sox to become the wildcard team, there isn't any point in thinking about this. The Astros aren't going to catch the Red Sox unless the Sox go into a huge slump. If that happens, they could still lose the division. I would rather just have the best record and home field throughout. Even though the team isn't all back, this weekend could give us some insight to how things might go with the Astros. Of course, they will need to get past the Indians to worry about the Sox.
I guess I'm less worried about the Sox not making the playoffs than I am about learning about the specific matchups and +/-s that each team brings to the playoffs and how it relates to field dimensions and stuff... but that's not what this is.

In effect, I guess my mind is already on the playoffs and not on the next game!

My bad--I gotta get my head on straight. Thanks coach! :)
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
5,013
Pittsburgh, PA
They have one play left in the book to catch the Sox. Sweep all 6 games. That’s only realistic chance. Even 5 of 6 only nets them 3 games off the lead and would still need to make up 5 over other 17 games.
I'm going to do the math correctly now:
If the Yankees sweep all six games, then they're only 2.5 games back, not 5, with 17 for the Sox and 18 for the MFY to play.

If the Sox go 8-9 in those 17 games, the Yankees need to go 11-7 to tie, which is perfectly reasonable.

That said, the odds of a 6 game sweep are low.

I'm still at a 2.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
Yes, I am slightly worried about the Red Sox because of the state of the bullpen. It's not a new issue. In the past, there was concern about the middle relief which frankly is a problem on most teams. But, the back end of the bullpen has been a big concern over the past month. SoxScout posted a tweet yesterday detailing the struggles of Barnes and Kimbrel since the trade deadline. Here are their combined numbers going into yesterday since August 1st: 18.1 IP, 18 H, 10 BB, 14 ER, 6 HR, 34 K, 6.87 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 1.53 WHIP. That's a problem as they are the two pitchers to be counted on in the 8th and 9th innings.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
It’s amazing that they are still striking out almost 2 batters an inning while posting that number of hits, walks, and home runs.

The walks are the biggest problem. That is an outrageous walk rate for major league relief aces. It should be half that.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
5,013
Pittsburgh, PA
It’s amazing that they are still striking out almost 2 batters an inning while posting that number of hits, walks, and home runs.

The walks are the biggest problem. That is an outrageous walk rate for major league relief aces. It should be half that.
Slight nitpick - allowing baserunners helps your K/IP, all else being equal. That's not true of K%.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Can't find any good correlation between starter's innings pitched and success.

2004 Red Sox: unlikely, but true that the 5 starters pitched every game except 2. Something like 1,000 innings.

2016 Cubs: all but 10 @ 900+ / Cleveland 800+
2017 Astros: around 770 innings / Dodgers 800+
2018 Red Sox: around 640 so far, so looking like 800 something

Last year's Red Sox team 5 starters totaled over 900 IP and burnt out. With more research (and math not from my head) I think there might be some useful info available, but the last 4 WS teams are all around 800 IP for the starting 5.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
5,013
Pittsburgh, PA
Slight nitpick - allowing baserunners helps your K/IP, all else being equal. That's not true of K%.
Although, to be clear, Kimbrel has struck out a higher % of batters since August 1 (45%) than the season overall (38%), but lower than 2017 (50%). Barnes is slightly lower since August 1 (35%) than the season overall (37%), both of which are higher than 2017 (29%).

For reference, leaguewide it's 22% - 23% for relievers.

Isn't it kind of the reverse of this? Allowing baserunners doesn't affect your K/IP one way or the other, but does make your K% worse.
You allow a hit, you get another chance to strike out a batter. You get a groundout, your inning total goes up without a K.

The K happens before the ball goes into play, so looking at K% is the more relevant evaluation of a pitcher's ability. K/IP is just easier to calculate.
 

SirPsychoSquints

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
5,013
Pittsburgh, PA
Yes, but you don't become any more likely to get that out via strikeout just because you allowed the hit. And K/IP is a percentage of outs achieved via strikeout.

But I agree with you that K% is the more useful metric.
My point was - P91 said despite the hits and walks, their K/IP is still so high! With a constant K% (ability to strike batters out), you will have a higher K/IP if you allow hits and walks rather than get groundouts/lineouts/flyouts, so it's not surprising to see a high K/IP given what we've seen.
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
19,863
St. Louis, MO
I'm going to do the math correctly now:
If the Yankees sweep all six games, then they're only 2.5 games back, not 5, with 17 for the Sox and 18 for the MFY to play.

If the Sox go 8-9 in those 17 games, the Yankees need to go 11-7 to tie, which is perfectly reasonable.

That said, the odds of a 6 game sweep are low.

I'm still at a 2.
Yes 5 of 6 has them needing to make up 5 over 17. Also the odds are in our favor the last 3 of those 6 will be rendered meaningless. They need to make up 5.5 by the final weekend then sweep us. Tough math.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.