I suspect the new Yankees will always underperform their pythag because they'll fatten up their runs with 9 - 2 blowouts against bad pitching. Even so, I agree they're the favorites to win the AL East next year.
Are The Yankees Really This Good?
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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Don’t forget the fucking Reds who, if they were run by a chimpanzee, would have Torres as their 3B next season instead.
As far as trades go, I think Beane may have pulled one over on them if (big if) the prospects pan out. Gray is nothing special, a mid-rotation guy with ok control who will curse pitching at home. Kaprielian has the chance to be a whole lot more. And I don’t even think all that highly of Fowler or Mateo.
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Sabathia pitched 148 innings during the regular season. Tanaka was healthier, sure. He pitched 178 innings. Pineda was probably the starter who missed the most time. I don't think he broke 100 IP.
I don't think the Yankees got especially lucky with starting pitcher health. They had some.
I don’t know man. Reading their prospect thread and they are telling me that they have four or five potential top of the rotation starters and they can field multiple major league lineups just with their minor leaguers.
Two injuries EE left out were Dustin Fowler (brutal injury in his first game up and out for the year, later traded) and Gleyber Torres (out for the year in June), both of whom looked poised to help the big league club bigtime and neither of whom ended up contributing at all.
But BOS had plenty of injury issues too, I don't think what happened this past season matters too much either way at this point. We're talking about the future.
While clearly neither of those things is true, if someone had said in July 2016 that Sanchez, Judge and Severino would all be on the 2017 All-Star team, we'd have all thought that was pretty ridiculous also.I don’t know man. Reading their prospect thread and they are telling me that they have four or five potential top of the rotation starters and they can field multiple major league lineups just with their minor leaguers.
Yeah, I already acknowledged the Yankees were in better shape than us because of the farm, but 2 years ago, their system was crap. Plus, despite how bad the Redsox farm system is, they are only 2 players away from being an above average farm.
I'm also not a big fan of Gray, but the thing with Kaprielian is that 1) he added a lot of velocity after college and his body doesn't seem able to sustain it without getting hurt and 2) he has barely pitched since being drafted in summer 2015 (11 innings in 2015, 18 in 2016, 0 in 2017), how long will it take him to get his innings up to 150?
Fowler can be a serious impact player if he can fully recover from his devastating injury, and Mateo is crazy talented and very flexible in terms of position (SS/2B/CF) but very inconsistent, all three have major upside and major question marks.
As I said, the narrative, not the objective truth. But he did start 27 games at age 37... ;-P
It's not really Yankee fans telling you that, it's links to scouts and prospect lists telling you that. Obviously the team won't have four 25 year old aces next year but there is enough in the system to supplement the rotation with significant upside in the foreseeable future. I'd be happy if even one of those guys turned into a top of the rotation starter over the next 2 years.I don’t know man. Reading their prospect thread and they are telling me that they have four or five potential top of the rotation starters and they can field multiple major league lineups just with their minor leaguers.
This is why I'm not ready to write off the 2018 AL East title to the Yankees at this point. Sanchez, Judge, and Severino were all stars in 2017. You know who were all stars in 2016? Bradley, Bogaerts and Wright. All of whom were not all star level in 2017 (not that I expected Wright to ever be again).
This isn't to say that because the Red Sox experienced regression, the Yankees will. But it absolutely is a possibility. They might regress in areas, get better in others, and end up right where they were in 2017 (90ish wins). Just like the Sox did from 2016 to 2017.
I look forward to the season long battle between the Yankees and Red Sox in 2018. I expect it will come down to the last weekend again. Neither team is head and shoulders better than the other. There's reason for optimism on both sides.
Giving up on the division the next two years is silly, of course. If there are no changes between now and opening day, I'd probably pick the Yankees and expect the Sox to cruise to the first wild card the way New York did this year, but the Sox would be competitive for the division right through the end of September, I think.
And we all know there will be changes. Dombrowski is going to make at least one big move (whether it's a signing or a trade) and I doubt Cashman sits on his hands and hopes the kids keep performing to the level we saw last year. Both executives will look to maximize their teams chances of winning next season within the boundaries of their long term plans. The Sox may even have an advantage there since their long term plan is not nearly as long term as what Cashman has built. The Sox have a shorter window, so it makes sense to go harder at the next two seasons.
I don't see how they can avoid a fairly hard rebuild in 2020 or 2021 at the latest, but regardless, they should be a dangerous team capable of winning the division through the end of 2019 and it's going to be a lot of fun watching them duke it out with the Yanks.
Well at least for potential top of the rotation guys there is this .... http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2017-yankees-offseason-discussion.21332/#post-2511159
As for the positional guys, it's just going through all the posts including those who think Tyler Wade is something more than Brock Holt 2.0.
All fair points. I'm higher on Kaprielian but that may have to do with being a fellow member of the tribe.
If Fowler and Mateo hit then this could be a massive jackpot for Beane, but as you note both now have massive question marks, probably more than Kaprielian does since he has the fallback of being a potential lights out reliever.
Out of the 3, I think Mateo is the safest, even if he does have massive question marks. He plays SS/CF, has elite speed and can provide a little power. At worse, he's going to stick around as a bench player. Fowler has to hit to provide value. You have to like the trend in his power numbers but dude is impossible to walk, even if his k rates are fine. Kap hasn't even pitched above A ball. He may have the fall back of lights out reliever, but it doesn't mean he's going to come close to hitting it.All fair points. I'm higher on Kaprielian but that may have to do with being a fellow member of the tribe.
If Fowler and Mateo hit then this could be a massive jackpot for Beane, but as you note both now have massive question marks, probably more than Kaprielian does since he has the fallback of being a potential lights out reliever.
And the Sox had Price, ERod, Wright, Pedroia, Thornburg and Smith all miss significant time; Xander, Betts, Moreland and Ramirez all play through injuries that impacted their performance. I don't think you win the injury battle on this one.
Look this isn't a Yankee/Sox thing, it's a baseball thing. If someone tried to make the case that ANY team has a "really high chance of winning the division for the next decade" I'd say the same thing. It's ludicrous. Nothing turns out what it looks like on paper, in any sport. We know this. That's not how this game works and for a long tenured member to suggesting as such is simply trolling. DH3 knows exactly what he's doing.
Pythag is a great theory, but it's exactly that, a theory. But I'm not talking about that anyway. I'm talking about CC/Gray/Tanaka staying healthy, Didi/Hicks having career years, Judge hitting 52 HRs when he'd never hit more than 23 in a season, Gardner/Castro bouncing back, etc. Things went pretty much as well as they could have hoped. They had some expected normal dings like EE notes, but they also had a ton of stuff break right for them.
They absolutely should be favored heading into next year, my point is very simply that the posters crying in their beer about how the end is near are being a tad hyperbolic and likely because we saw them come one game from the WS while we exited in the first round and fired the manager. Frankly, I'm in some ways glad the Yankees are on the rebound because it'd be nice to have some remembrance of the rivalry back. Quite frankly I've barely cared about them since 2004.
How are they going to fit all of these guys on the staff with Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy all at the top of the rotation? And why sign Harper when you’ve got Montero holding down the middle of the order?
I don't know that the Yankees "absolutely should be favored" next year. Lots of moving parts and variables, but let's assume good health for everyone. A full, NORMAL season of David Price instead of the Sox' fifth starter represents an enormous upgrade for the Sox' pitching. They also get back (assuming full health) Thornburg and Smith for the whole year.
Bogaerts and Betts and Pedroia play uninjured and they're much improved. Sox get a full year out of Devers, and Vazquez' improvement seems real.
In other words, if the Sox have good health next year, they should be significantly improved, and that's even without adding a big bat. If they are significantly improved, they could easily be a 98-100 win team. If that's so, how much better do we think the Yankees will be?
Maybe better. I mean, they have a lot of talent and more on the way. But it's tough to imagine any team automatically "absolutely being favored" over another team that could have 98-100 wins themselves.
He's managed to throw less than 30 innings total in his 2.5 professional seasons. He's appeared in exactly 8 games.
Forget his ceiling. Forget his floor for that matter. He has to prove his body can even withstand the rigors of even being a professional athlete in the first place. I don't think Beane should even be counting on ever seeing this guy at the major league level at this point. If he does, it's a bonus.
While your point is accepted, all of those guys were single guys at the top of a meh farm system. Hughes & Montero were the only candidates that even projected to have as much impact as a Torres or Devers. The point with the farm system today is that there are a lot of chances to fail or find a lottery ticket and you can't say its an exaggeration to assume 1 or more of those players will be on the major league roster offering better production than Headley, Ellsbury, Sabathia, Holliday, and/or any 5th man in the rotation.
The question posted in the thread is a little too vague because nobody knows what "this" means. The Yankees should be a better than 90 win team next year and if "this" means that they have a great chance to win the division and make a deep run into the playoffs, I don't think anyone is arguing against that.
For the record, it's the Sox fans here claiming the division belongs to the Yankees. The blue side of this forum sounds a little bit more worried about patching up holes in roster depth and deciding where prospects can fit in vs engaging free agents.
The Yankees are really good, and young, but so are the Sox.
Boston just won the division in back to back seasons, and this one felt particularly snakebit for a season where they were in first for 188 days, never off the top spot from August 1st on, and were in possession of a wild card spot even in the rare instances they weren't leading the division.
Boston has more pitching depth, the Yankees have more power. Those are the two marquee items to hold in baseball that are not easily acquired. Now it's all a matter of how the off-season goes. They're neck and neck. If the Yankees add a couple front line starters to replace Sabathia and retian/replace Tanaka they'll be very well positioned, though this will likely be challenging with their desire to pair down payroll.
Meanwhile if Boston finds a meaningful plug for the hole opened up by Ortiz' departure the younger guys in the lineup might spring back to their 2016 form offensively and suddenly the Red Sox would look like one of the premier offensive teams in baseball, with a strong rotation and quality bullpen.
The off-season will be interesting and how it all plays out in 2018 will be doubly so. Baseball is better when the Yankees and Red Sox are engaging each other in meaningful games in August and September.
Boston just won the division in back to back seasons, and this one felt particularly snakebit for a season where they were in first for 188 days, never off the top spot from August 1st on, and were in possession of a wild card spot even in the rare instances they weren't leading the division.
Boston has more pitching depth, the Yankees have more power. Those are the two marquee items to hold in baseball that are not easily acquired. Now it's all a matter of how the off-season goes. They're neck and neck. If the Yankees add a couple front line starters to replace Sabathia and retian/replace Tanaka they'll be very well positioned, though this will likely be challenging with their desire to pair down payroll.
Meanwhile if Boston finds a meaningful plug for the hole opened up by Ortiz' departure the younger guys in the lineup might spring back to their 2016 form offensively and suddenly the Red Sox would look like one of the premier offensive teams in baseball, with a strong rotation and quality bullpen.
The off-season will be interesting and how it all plays out in 2018 will be doubly so. Baseball is better when the Yankees and Red Sox are engaging each other in meaningful games in August and September.
Or if the Red Sox had gone 16-5 in extra inning games instead of 18-3.
Anyone who thinks everything broke perfectly for the Yankees this season wasnt paying very close attention. I'd add in to EEs list that Chapman lost the closer job for a month, Betances forgot how to throw strikes for long stretches, Tanaka was ridiculously inconsistent, sabathia only threw 150 innings, and Castro was hurt.
Kahnle is the Yankees 4th RH reliever, he'd be the Red Sox primary set up guy.
Anyone who thinks that Kahnle is the Yankees 4th RH reliever wasn't paying very close attention.
Well, they didn’t go 18-3, they went 15-3. So perhaps pay more attention to the Sox.
Pecking order post deadline was Green/Kahnle -> Robertson -> Betances -> Chapman
Playoffs Betances -> Green -> Robertson/Kahnle -> Chapman
Right, so in the most important games, he was either the primary or secondary set-up man.
The playoffs were playing the hot hand, you know that. Barring a trade of Betances or Green moving to the rotation, he slots into the 3rd or 4th slot in the pecking order and it's fair to say that Cashman will continue to work on the bullpen, as he does every year.
Kahnle was barely trusted during August and September.
Totally agree and it wasn’t meant to be a “suck it Yankees fans!” post. Realistically they’ll be lucky to get a single perennial all star type player out of the bunch, but that and some above average starters would go a long way with the way the roster is heading.
The thing that really scares me is Cashman being allowed to run personnel without oversight and getting actual, legitimate patience from ownership. He’s quietly been one of the best GMs in the league over the last few years. I’d trade him for Dombrowski yesterday.
If any pitcher currently in the Red Sox minor league system has even Joba Chamberlin's career, let alone being as useful as Kennedy or Hughes, it will be a pleasant surprise.
I know you're rolling and all, but they have a number of arms for whom it wouldn't be surprising to see a peak of Kennedy or Hughes who were good but not great major leaguers. Houck and Thompson from last year's draft class are college arms with solid middle of the rotation upside and Houck has the stuff to have back of the bullpen upside if he doesn't pan out as a starter. So Joba's career certainly wouldn't be a surprise even if you can't count on it.
Further away are Alex Scherff and Jay Groome. Both have big ceilings, though both are high school arms who are far far away. Even still, if either had a career better than Hughes or Kennedy, no one should consider it surprising.
Of course, you are probably intentionally conflating "surprising" with "beating the odds" which are long in the cases of the high school arms, but that's true of every farm with kids fresh off of their prom night.
And that's just the most interesting (to me) talent. It also wouldn't be a shock if any of Mike Shawaryn, Jalen Beeks, Ronial Raudes, Travis Lakins, or Bryan Mata ended up as solid middle of the rotation pitchers. Zach Schellenger also has back of the rotation
Edit: Noticed an error regarding Schellenger. He's a college closer, not a starter. I meant to type "bullpen" when describing his potential.
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And if Kahnle was on the Sox and pitched like he did in Game 7 of the ALCS there'd be 2 or 3 threads here discussing ways to remove him from the premises.
Would anyone be surprised if Chapman, Betances or Tanaka still have issues in 2018, or if Sabathia struggles to stay on the field at age 37-38?
When I hear all this MFY ball licking, I have to laugh. The Sox won the division with every single young player taking a step back this year except maybe Benintendi and Vazquez. Player development is not linear. No one can predict how well or poorly, all these young stars on both teams will perform in 2018.
I'm glad to see that Nick Cafardo was able to get multiple SoSH accounts.
Keep the hot takes coming, Wilber!
Keep the hot takes coming, Wilber!
I think there are tons of reasons to be bullish on the Yankees moving forward. But, as I posted in #168 above, anyone saying the Yankees "absolutely should be favored" next year are missing on just how good the Red Sox could be. Consider these core guys' last two seasons, and then if they have a season just in the middle of those two (remember, as you said, they went backward last year compared to 2016):
Hanley
2016: 30 hr, 111 rbi, .286/.361/.505/.866
2017: 23 hr, 62 rbi, .242/.320/.429/.750
2018*: 27 hr, 87 rbi, .262/.340/.467/.808
Pedroia
2016: 15 hr, 74 rbi, .318/.376/.449/.825
2017: 7 hr, 62 rbi, .293/.369/.392/.760
2018*: 11 hr, 68 rbi, .305/.373/.421/.792
Bogaerts
2016: 21 hr, 89 rbi, .294/.356/.446/.802
2017: 10 hr, 62 rbi, .273/.343/.403/.746
2018*: 16 hr, 75 rbi, .284/.350/.425/.774
Bradley
2016: 26 hr, 87 rbi, .267/.349/.486/.835
2017: 17 hr, 63 rbi, .245/.323/.402/.726
2018*: 22 hr, 75 rbi, .256/.336/.444/.781
Betts
2016: 31 hr, 113 rbi, .318/.363/.534/.897
2017: 24 hr, 102 rbi, .264/.344/.459/.803
2018*: 28 hr, 108 rbi, .291/.354/.497/.850
I mean, we're not even talking about these guys returning to 2016 levels. Just being halfway between their 2016 and 2017 numbers would improve this offense CONSIDERABLY.
I really believe, if they are healthy, they could be a 98-100 win team.
Also, I can't believe it hasn't been moved from the Red Sox forum. I haven't read the thread, but it annoys me to see it listed there.
When do the Marcel forecasts come out? I know any idiot could do them but it is a fair amount of work. Projections would be a good place to start here. Eyeballing, I'd imagine forecasts for Sanchez would look mighty rosy, while Hicks and Judge might take a step back in the forecasts. I would also imagine some optimism about Tanaka but pessimism about Sabathia and Severino.
Why does everyone think Severino is going to regress? Aside from the natural regression that can occur for any great season, this is pretty much where the Yankee front office expected Severino to be. He was always discussed as a top of the rotation starter.
Because most prospect evaluators always pegged him to be a guy that would end up as a reliever. If the FO saw him as turning into what he did this year, good on them, but they were in the minority.
After the latest Pedey surgery news, it has become obvious that a strong 2017 finish just wasn't in the cards for the RS.
By the finish extremely significant injuries with several requiring surgery to
Pedey
Hanley
ERod
Price
Wright
Nunez
Mookie (wrist)
Other significant earlier season injuries, which affected perrformance but were perhaps mostly resolved by the end of the season:
X
Moreland
So before the Yankees are crowned here by some, the RS have a lot of upside. Nunez now becomes a very important free agent signing.
A lot always depends on health (especially Price's), but I will take the starting RS starting 4 backed by Kimbrel and Smith in a playoff series any time.
By the finish extremely significant injuries with several requiring surgery to
Pedey
Hanley
ERod
Price
Wright
Nunez
Mookie (wrist)
Other significant earlier season injuries, which affected perrformance but were perhaps mostly resolved by the end of the season:
X
Moreland
So before the Yankees are crowned here by some, the RS have a lot of upside. Nunez now becomes a very important free agent signing.
A lot always depends on health (especially Price's), but I will take the starting RS starting 4 backed by Kimbrel and Smith in a playoff series any time.
Most likely, Tanaka won't pitch for the yankees, so I'm not sure he matters in this conversation.
I don't know if I'd put money on that. I think the odds of him opting out are probably not too far from 50/50 and if he does, I think the Yankees would prefer to re-sign him over seeking a replacement (like Darvish). I'd guess it's more likely than not that Tanaka is in pinstripes next year.
I think he will do what CC did, and agree to an extended deal with NY a year or two longer, but I wouldn't be totally surprised if they let him go. His decision needs to be within three days of the WS ending, so we will know soon.
Wow. That is big news. Though I am not sure I agree with the poster above that the Yankees will get better as a result. I thought Girardi suited NY perfectly, especially in temperament. Worthy adversary.
Happened to see this old thread, and soon we will start to see for real how good or not teams are, but I did think it should be noted that since the last post here, NY retained Tanaka and Sabathia (so their pitching staff is identical to the end of last year, and the line of high-ceiling arms behind them a bit closer), replaced Holliday with Stanton, and replaced Castro and Headley with the five-headed combo of Drury/Walker/Wade/Andujar/Torres. The Sox added JD Martinez and brought back Moreland and Nunez, anyone I’m forgetting there?
Houston still looks better, Boston could be great if things break right, Cleveland should win a ton of games in the terrible Central, the other AL East teams are not pushovers (best division in MLB, as usual), but Cashman is on a multi-year roll and I am excited to watch it play out. It is looking like it will be the same four teams in the ALDS again as of now, all are loaded and capable of making (and winning) the World Series.
(Also I was on the main board looking for a BOS bullpen thread to see who the projected 7-8 guys were, but I don’t think there is one, so I bumped this instead, sorry. Someone want to start that?)
Houston still looks better, Boston could be great if things break right, Cleveland should win a ton of games in the terrible Central, the other AL East teams are not pushovers (best division in MLB, as usual), but Cashman is on a multi-year roll and I am excited to watch it play out. It is looking like it will be the same four teams in the ALDS again as of now, all are loaded and capable of making (and winning) the World Series.
(Also I was on the main board looking for a BOS bullpen thread to see who the projected 7-8 guys were, but I don’t think there is one, so I bumped this instead, sorry. Someone want to start that?)
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I think both Sox and Yankees, each coming off playoff seasons, having new managers has to be a first and will certainly bear watching