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Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by HomeRunBaker, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. Carmine Hose

    Carmine Hose Member SoSH Member

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    4,674
    The Pels have 28 games to wait out AD until the season is over. The only team that NEEDS to do the trade now is the Lakers. Why would the Pels bow to their timeline when they are in their own conference?

    The Lakers have shown their cards and there is no way they play hardball with the Pels if this goes to July. If anything, with more real suitors, they would give MORE than already offered. If I were the Pels, I would be asking for the every-other-year first rounders, starting in 2020, and pick-swap rights in the intervening years between those picks. Ainge got that from the desperate Nets for a far lesser haul, and in my mind, LeBron (who is running the Lakers) is likely more desperate.
     
  2. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I'm almost wondering if the Lakers will go into tank mode if the Pelicans hold off on trading AD before the deadline. They're currently only 2.5 games out of the 10th spot in the lottery, which brings with it a 14% chance of landing in the top 4, and they would get blasted out of the playoffs if they make it as a 7 or 8 seed. Their proposal to the Pelicans would be much tougher to beat if they struck lotto gold and they would also be hurting the value of the SAC pick.

    All they have to do is claim an injury to LeBron and the losses will pile up, as we've seen during his absence. I'm probably being overly cynical here.
     
  3. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    There's no chance that Lebron agrees to tank. None.

    Here's a more interesting question I saw on twitter yesterday: If the Lakers fail to trade for AD and can't land that second star (Kawhi, KD, etc. ) in free agency, do they entertain the idea of trading Lebron? I'm going to say no, but damn if I didn't sit there and think about it for a few minutes.
     
  4. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Like someone posted yesterday---it's almost like the Pelicans don't want what the Lakers are offering.

    Right now the Lakers seem like the guy in every fantasy league that sends out 10 trade offers a week and most people just ignore him, and then he complains "Man, no one in this league wants to deal!! It's not fun!!"

    The Pelicans rightly said "Fine, if you truly want AD, *this* is what it will take. Otherwise, stop spamming me."
     
  5. tbb345

    tbb345 Member SoSH Member

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    I'd go (if on the same tier, asset of most value on the left)
    Tatum
    Griz Pick, Brown
    Ingram, Ball
    Sacto Pick, Kuzma
    Rozier, Clipper pick
    Hart, Zubac, Williams, Laker 1st rounders, Celtic 1st rounders

    I don't think that Clipper pick really has much value. It's starting to look like 2 2nd rounders
     
  6. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Pretty sure it's only 1 2nd rounder.
     
  7. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    FWIW, here is how Basketball Index ranked the assets using PIPM (Player Impact Plus-Minus) and the potential for each player or pick to become an All-star.



    For those that can't see tweets -

    Cranjis: Here are some estimated All-Stars odds to compare Laker, Celtic, and even some Raptor assets. I used career PIPM projections & All-Star odds, BBall Ref odds for each team to finish at each seed in the standings, draft lottery odds, and historic draft pick odds for the math.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Why didn't he value the Lakers pick? At this point, it's better than the Clippers or Kings pick.
     
  9. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Literally nothing I said there should lead anyone to believe I, or anyone else on earth, thinks a re-signed Rozier, Robert Williams and the Memphis pick is a fair price for Anthony Davis. That's the package you pitched. New Orleans would trade him somewhere else today if they thought this was the Celtics offer.
     
  10. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    It's not a depreciating asset in the way your car is.

    It's worth a ton right now, it's worth a ton this summer, there is zero chance it will ever be worth zero in more than a year because many, many teams will be trying to get this asset before it gets to that point.

    I really can't believe it's even an argument that the Celtics, who are one of many teams that want this asset, has more leverage than the team with the asset that many teams want.

    Because here you're describing which GM has more pressure on him, not which organization has more leverage.

    Of course Demps has more pressure on him, since he's probably getting fired and Ainge isn't. That doesn't mean he has to turtle and take whatever Ainge offers him because he has the upper hand. He doesn't. If anything, I'd say the pressure on Demps may give the Celtics even less leverage because Demps may feel he has to act right now or a different GM will make this deal for the Pelicans this summer.

    This is for sure. The second you make a draft pick it loses value.

    Never said NO has all the leverage, they just have significantly more than Boston does.

    I'll be your huckleberry. I believe the Pelicans would gladly trade the equivalent of the SAC pick -- no. 13 overall -- for Ball or Ingram this year if they could
     
    #1210 mcpickl, Feb 6, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  11. ZMart100

    ZMart100 Member SoSH Member

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    1,138
    Lakers w/AD (and probably the buyout FAs they would pick up to fill out the roster) probably isn't much different from the Kings pick.
     
  12. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Prohibited from trading due to Stepien rule, right?
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    No, that would only be the case if they didn't have their rights to the 2020 pick. They do.

    I think? Maybe it is.
     
  14. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    You keep using that word. I don't think that it means what you think it means. -Enigo Montoya

    Demps' leverage is to tell one team to get lost and then talk to another team.

    Celtics' leverage is to walk away and continue developing and acquiring assets. We will be a playoff team next year regardless.

    Lakers leverage seems to be to appeal to the court of public opinion, no pun intended.

    Who can't walk away? They have the least leverage. They can play teams off each other. That's it. He HAS to deal Davis. Magic NEEDS another star. Ainge doesn't NEED anything.
     
  15. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    But they traded their 2018.
     
  16. Tony C

    Tony C Dope Dope

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    Ainge needs to get over the hump. Time will tell but if the Celts have a short playoff run, I think the pressure mounts on Danny.


    To be fair "with them" has been a bit rare due to injuries, but weren't they playing as the 4th best team in the NBA for a good stretch before LeBron's injury?
     
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think that matters anymore because that draft already happened. I think the Stepien rule only affects future picks.
     
  18. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    I know exactly what it mean, thanks.

    Ainge would have more leverage if he were the only bidder. I'm pretty sure he isn't.

    You're making it sound like if he doesn't take whatever Ainge feels like offering him, then he gets nothing.

    He's going to have plenty of offers. Maybe you won't like them as much as a Boston offer, maybe I won't, but they're not going to be left holding the bag and getting nothing.

    Try thinking of it if Ainge announced today, we're not interested. Does one of the other bidders suddenly have the most leverage because New Orleans has to deal him, or does New Orleans since they still have multiple bidders?
     
  19. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    In a follow up tweet he puts it at 15%, or roughly between Ingram and the Sacramento pick.
     
  20. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, that’s right.
     
  21. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    All of the other bidders gain some leverage if one pulls out.

    I'm not qualifying the offers. Just saying that Ainge has the least to lose, so he can avoid overspending and walk away. Magic and Demps are up against it.

    Fwiw, I think he ends up in LA for that reason. Magic is more likely to make a stupid move out of desperation, and Lebron couldn't give two shits about three years from now.
     
  22. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    I agree with this, but this is a different argument than saying Boston has more leverage than the Pelicans.
     
  23. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    Fair enough. If we go on any longer, Sumner or Rev will swoop in with a post about the etymology of "leverage".
     
  24. NomarsFool

    NomarsFool Member SoSH Member

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    3,060
    New Orleans pretty much has to trade AD. In a parallel universe where nobody was interested in AD and all BOS offered for AD was Brad Wannamaker, I think NO would still have to make that deal (salary issues aside). In my opinion, that makes this a buyer's market, because one party (New Orleans) HAS to sell, and everyone else can choose whether or not to buy.

    You can also say it's a bidding war for AD, and in some ways it will be. With the caveat that in the end, no team is going to give up a lot for AD without some assurance that he'll want to resign, so that means the teams that can realistically bid for AD need to be teams that have enough talent/assets that they will still be a competitive team after they acquire him. So, in the end, it won't be a bidding war between 29 teams. It will really just be a few.

    So, you have multiple potential buyers (advantage NO), but all the buyers CAN buy but the seller MUST sell (advantage everyone else). I again come back to the fact that if the price is perceived to be too high, Boston (and others) will likely feel comfortable walking away (Boston in particular), whereas NO will never feel comfortable walking away and getting nothing.
     
  25. OnWisc

    OnWisc Microcosmic SoSH Member

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    Just taking another NBA example, the Sterlings HAD to sell the Clippers and I think that still fetched a pretty good price.

    The Pels may HAVE to trade AD, but they don't HAVE to trade him to any particular team. And nobody is going to let another team scoop up Davis on the cheap. Absent collusion, there's a floor on what New Orleans will get that has nothing to do with the fact that they are obliged to make a move here.

    Nobody's bidding against zero, and nobody is wary of NO walking away. They're bidding against other teams, and they're wary of NO dealing AD to one of them. This isn't a Joe Thornton situation where a league full of GMs is going to wake up one morning and find that a guy they didn't even know was on the market was just dealt for a package they could've topped in their sleep.
     
    #1225 OnWisc, Feb 6, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2019
  26. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    37,112


    New: Per sources, the Pelicans have reached out to the Celtics seeking promises on specific AD packages. The Cs have been reluctant to do that 5 months early, but have made it clear no one is off limits and that it’ll be worth the wait. The latest:

    I can't access the article, so if anyone that can could post snippets of the article that would be great.
     
  27. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    The value of the asset is 0 on July 1st, 2020, barring Davis accepting a Supermax from NOP. Frankly, it's zero as of next year's trade deadline. Between now and then, the value will uniformly but non-linearly decrease from its current "Tatum+" down to 0, based chiefly off perceptions of whether he will re-sign anywhere that he's traded, and if a team is trying to gear up for a one-shot playoff run this year or next.

    Describing the Celtics as "one of many teams that want this asset", while ignoring that they are also "the team with the most other assets that New Orleans wants", is almost willfully disingenuous when analyzing their negotiating positions. I mean, if they weren't the latter, Davis would already be traded, or at least far more likely to be.

    Take a look at that link about the Secretary Problem here, if you're not already familiar. That's what Demps is facing, and why assessing his situation is kinda interesting intellectually, on top of just from a sports-fan perspective.
     
  28. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    Seems like as long as Ainge keeps his word, we have a deal in principle.
     
  29. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Use another browser.

    Not a heck of lot there.

     
  30. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    *Players* never "agree" to tank. Its that their teams amass shitty players and play them a lot. What would Lebron do if its suddenly him and 4 Greg Kites playing 35 minutes a game?
     
  31. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Lebron would never trade for 4 Greg Kites!!!
     
  32. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I wouldn't be surprised if they already have an agreement pending the draft lottery. And that agreement is almost surely Tatum. I doubt Ainge would have any issues committing to any of the other assets like Brown, TL, SAC, MEM, etc. It's gotta be all about Tatum.
     
  33. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, all my browsers have used up the few articles you can access.
     
  34. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    This all makes a lot of sense if you think of it as Ainge really making the Pels work to get a Tatum promise. It's the best way to avoid having to throw in lots of other stuff with Tatum, which you can bet is his highest priority--this team will really need a couple cracks at drafting cheap rotation players the next few years if the top of the roster is as high-priced as it seems it will be.
     
  35. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    None of this makes any sense. Davis isn't a depreciating asset unless you think that he's somehow less valuable at 26 years and 3 months than at 25 years and 11 months. No acquiring team is going to look at the acquisition of a potential inner-circle Hall of Famer differently just because it happens four months from now instead of today. The value of one extra playoff run isn't that important when you are talking about acquiring AD for his prime years.

    New Orleans increases their leverage by waiting until the summer. The Lakers offer has already been set as the baseline. That's n. Now the Celtics, or Knicks, or Clippers, or whomever else wants to get involved after July 1 have to offer n+1. Ainge's only leverage is that he possesses the single most valuable piece on the table in Tatum. His leverage disappears if he takes that piece off, or another more attractive option (Zion?) suddenly comes into the picture.

    The summer is when more teams can get involved. The Pelicans expanding their universe of potential buyers only enhances the value of what they're selling. The fact that they need to sell the asset is largely irrelevant here; they have more than a year to unload AD. Tobias Harris, borderline All-Star on an expiring deal, just got traded for Shamet (a first round pick last year) and two more first rounders. AD could fetch double that next deadline.
     
  36. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    I think this is exactly right. Yes, no player or asset is off the table, but if you want Tatum, we aren’t handing the entire war chest over to you.
     
  37. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    While Tatum has more value he is probably the right guy to go due to perceived value and roster fit. He doesn't get enough touches when Hayward is 100%, too similar of player. If we can keep Brown and one pick that would be a huge win.
     
  38. uncannymanny

    uncannymanny Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Ainge is also likely trying to avoid the situation where the headlines say what a specific package of players is. Both for the remainder of the season, and in the case that a deal falls through and they’re left with players who knew the team was trying to move them.
     
  39. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Where is Simmons' "tradeability rankings" when you really need it?
     
  40. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yup. I would guess Ainge has structured 2 basic deals:

    1) Tatum/Filler/2 non MEM pick(s)

    2) Brown/TL/Rozier/Choice of any 3 picks/Filler

    If Tatum goes, Ainge will need to and should keep one of SAC or MEM. If Tatum stays, and I think that’s unlikely, then Pelicans basically get to eat at the Celtics asset buffet.
     
  41. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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  42. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, we don't need Pacers fans yelling "Ainge will trade you" when Tatum's at the FT line.
     
  43. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    It's not willfully disingenuous, or being ignored, because I'm not arguing the Celtics are the team with the most other assets that New Orleans wants. Don't think anyone is arguing against it.
     
  44. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    But seriously, does an opt-out clause favor the team or the player?
     
  45. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is the best post I’ve read all day describing the Pelicans situation. The idea that AD is a depreciating asset isn’t the case at all considering his value actually increases after the season once the Celtics enter the fracas.

    As long as the Celtics are involved the Pelicans have a ton of leverage. Since they presumably will be in it to the end there will be at least some semblance of a bidding war.
     
  46. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    You keep saying there are multiple bidders. At this point, we know of one. We know that one other team is going to bid but there aren't multiple bidders that we know about. At this point.

    And to answer your question, if Jason Tatum was suddenly zapped into the Speed Force, yes that gives LAL more leverage. Maybe enough to get the deal done.

    If you think NOP has the whip hand, it doesn't sound like anyone is going to change your mind. But if they had the whip hand, they'd do the deal because, well, they were the ones who could control the negotiation. But IMO they don't have leverage and the best they can do is wait out the trade deadline - but even that's not a great answer because they either let AD play and risk their asset (plus worsen their draft pick) or they sit him for 28 games and have to answer questions every day about AD.

    Again, this may change as of July 1 for any number of reasons, but as of right now, I'll say that DA will be controlling the negotiations come July 1. Which is why NOP should take the player package + 3 1sts + 2 swaps.
    I.e., BAL and Manny Machado.
     
  47. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Good point. I exited that discussion and I should do the same here.
     
  48. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    The fact that we are discussing Tatum at all in anything other than a messageboard sense is a bit disconcerting. It means the Pelicans are leaking that they are confident they can get Tatum+ if they wait until this summer so, hey, Magic & Rob "Lowe" Pelinka, try harder. You too, Masai (to the extent that he checked in). And Michael Winger, you can play too if you put everything on the table.

    Now this doesn't mean that a trade will get done in the next 24 hours but those thinking of playing have a pretty good general idea of the price each of them would have to pay (again assuming that you really cannot value all packages the same way).

    Meanwhile, Ainge has to sit on his hands and hope the clock runs out. Its prevent defense at best but as we all, hopefully, know by now, its all he can do.
     
  49. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    This simply isn’t true. Brown is a significantly better shooter than Ingram. Ingram has a career TS% of .516 and has been at roughly .537 consistently over the last 2 seasons. Brown is at .547 for his career, was at .562 last year, and has bounced back from a poor start and looks on track to finish the season well ahead of his current .531 (also supported by simple regression toward his career numbers).
     
  50. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    You're assuming he won't have another bad stretch and that Ingram won't have a good one. At any given time, you can look up Eric Gordon and he's either shooting .311 or .375 from 3. Variance is a real thing.
     

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