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Anthony Davis, newest Klutch Sports client.....hmmmm

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by HomeRunBaker, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    Not sure this makes any sense. Of course Danny would trade Tatum and Brown if it netted him Davis. However, the Pelicans aren't accepting that package and therefore Danny would have little impetus to offer it at this point. It would only strain the relationship with two guys who are future team building blocks. Nobody is calling New Orleans with an offer until there's an indication that they'll listen.
     
  2. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I think the only way Tatum is in the deal is if both the SAC & MEM picks are shitty, Brown is unwilling to rebuild trade value, and another team is able to put together a crazy package.

    I'm really straining to think of anyone close to Tatum's age and track record getting moved, even in a star trade. Probably Harden, but he was the star in that trade, and he wasn't 21 with 2 years left on his rookie deal.

    Having said that, I acknowledge that AD is a special case because he's so good and so young at the time this hypothetical trade would take place.

    edit: I suppose the other way to look at it is that Tatum is such a ridiculously good piece that you can trade him+filler and blow any other offer out of the water. That way you avoid selling low on Brown and the picks. Brown would probably thrive with more wing time opened up, and the Celtics have been killing the draft+player development the past few years, so the picks may be worth more to them than to an arbitrary team. Definitely an interesting way to zig when others are zagging...
     
  3. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    The above edit has been my view for awhile now—put Tatum on the table and dare anyone else to beat it, knowing that AD wants Boston (hypothetically).

    So much of deals like this begin from a place of the star wanting out and choosing where, so I’m starting there and seeing what happens.

    I do, of course worry about the injury history. Seems like a guy who is always banged up to some degree.
     
  4. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    If Davis isn’t re-signing with New Orleans, of course they are accepting that package. Nobody is coming anywhere near beating it.
     
  5. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Sure it’s not exactly earth shattering stuff that Ainge would trade Tatum in a package for Davis but a couple things.....

    1. The Celtics weren’t the ones to release this as news it was a SAS report.

    2. If Tatum is butt hurt that he’d be traded for Anthony Freakin Davis he’s more delusional than even your typical NBA player.......and that’s saying a lot.
     
  6. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    If AD is going to be traded, why in the hell would the Pels not accept that offer? I can't think of a trade for a disgruntled star that has netted anything like those two guys (even considering Jaylen's struggles this year).
     
  7. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    This is more unique than others since you’re going to be in a bidding war with the Lakers. One great benefit we have is that we are not in the WC with them but we’ll still have to at least equal anything the Lakers put on the table which of course we’re more than capable of doing.
     
  8. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    Except Lakers have nowhere near that to offer, no matter how highly you view Ball and/or Ingram. Kuzma doesn’t go over the top and their draft picks are worse than ours.
     
  9. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yup. Tatum is the ultimate trump card. Lakers can’t touch it. If AD doesn’t re-sign with New Orleans, and he is open to the possibility of Boston, then Danny will get him.
     
  10. Jed Zeppelin

    Jed Zeppelin Member SoSH Member

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    Ingram being just fine and showing no year 3 improvement (and actually some regression as a poor fit next to LeBron) is a big knock against the Lakers’ chances. Still young etc but the ceiling is not where they need it.
     
  11. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    To be 100% clear: if Tatum is in the deal, there will not be another asset better than a late 20s pick going out with him. No other team can get close to Tatum alone, unless the Sixers put Simmons on the table.

    The more I think about this, the more I like the idea of Tatum in the deal, if Brown hasn't raised his value significantly by the summer. I'm still high on Jaylen, and Tatum loses a ton of value with Kyrie and AD both as primary shot guys. To be clear, I think Tatum is a far better prospect than Brown, and is also one of my favorite Celtics already. But it makes so much sense...salaries can be matched by signing Mook to a decent deal and then bringing in a 3rd team, or letting NO flip him later as an asset.
     
  12. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Tatum is obviously a great talent but he’s only 20. He won’t reach his full potential for another 5-6 years or so. I think the biggest argument for a Tatum/Brown for AD swap is that you’d be getting a superstar whose prime aligns with your best player’s prime. I think Kyrie wants a true running mate. Tatum will get there at some point but it won’t happen overnight. Both Horford and Hayward would make perfect secondary pieces behind AD/Kyrie and Smart could continue to be the glue guy. Everything would basically fall into place. The roles would be set. There would be no confusion / uncertainty like we currently have. The 2019 picks, or at least the ones not moved, would be used to backfill the bench. It all just makes too much sense.

    Now AD just needs to get the process started by rejecting a long term deal with New Orleans. If he does, it’s game on.
     
  13. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Even if the Lakers don’t that doesn’t mean that’s all the Pelicans can get out of an LA deal. The Lakers have the advantage of Klutch in their corner working on multi-team deals to increase the return......Klutch isn’t going to be bending over backwards to get their client to Boston.

    I’ll go on record saying that it will take Tatum plus plus to close this deal with it including say Jaylen and a high pick because you are fighting not only the Lakers but Davis’ representation putting deals together on their behalf.
     
    #113 HomeRunBaker, Dec 18, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2018
  14. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    They aren't accepting that offer because they aren't trading him, at least not at this time. That probably changes in the next year but SAS reported Danny offered those two guys already. I'm saying there's no way that's true because Tatum and Brown aren't going on the table until NO has made it clear they're listening to offers. The earliest that happens is after AD rejects a super max extension.
     
    #114 cheech13, Dec 18, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2018
  15. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Agree with this. LeBron is already talking about AD. That’s his guy. That’s the star he envisions joining him in LA. George said no. Durant has already basically nixed it. AD is the guy and if he says no to supermax, it’ll be a Boston vs. LA battle royale. If AD is open to either location, then we’ve got a true bidding war and it’ll take Tatum to close the deal. Ainge would obviously try any and all combinations without him but if you’re a GM who’s forced to trade a top 3 guy, adding a 21 year-old Tatum is about as good as you can do. Ingram, Ball, Kuzma, Hart are all nice players but they’ll never be Tatum.
     
  16. sox311

    sox311 Member SoSH Member

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    What is the time line of when Kyrie can be extended an offer and when the Pelicans can offer AD the designated player super max? The 2019 NBA Draft is June 20th. We lose a lot of trade value that day. This is a big case for having free agency start before the draft, but that isn't happening this year.

    Draft picks loose a TON of their value when they turn in to actual players. That can't be said enough. James Young, Yabusele, Zizic, Sullinger, Hunter, Fab Melo, those were all some of Danny's assets, they had value until Mr Stern or Silver walked across that stage and announced their names.

    And people throwing around that "Danny has drafted well recently" may not be looking past number 16 or so...

    I understand with Tatum and Jaylen Danny's "assets" are still top notch, but the four first rounders this year, well, to put it frankly, they aren't worth much. And when they become players, they aren't worth half of that. The window is closing for the super asset collection talk.

    I think of Anthony Davis during every Celtics game, but I don't think it is happening.
     
  17. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Those 2019 first round picks will still be bright and shiny with that new car smell. They won't have even played a pre-season game by the time a theoretical deal would go down... OR Danny may have a deal in principal and know which players the Pels want drafted.

    I'm probably in the minority here but I'm not letting go of Tatum.
    Draft picks, Jaylen Brown, TL, and Al Horford is plenty to offer. At the end of the day, I trust Danny & Co to make the right deal.

    Anyways it will be Klutch Sports/AD who will decide where he plays next. Not what players the Celtics offer. Super agents have more power on player moves then the media let us know.
     
  18. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    How many people here would trade Jaylen Brown straight-up for any of Ingram, Kuzma or Hart? Ignoring team fit and just on a pure value basis, would you even trade him for Lonzo Ball? Staple two first rounders and salary matches to Brown, especially if that's in the form of Al Horford, and I find it hard to believe the Lakers could top that appeal.

    Also, I thought Kyrie could sign a new deal during the year. He's in the 4th year of a 4+1 which was extended with 1 year left on his rookie deal, meaning he could have extended as of the 2017 offseason. Unless he makes All-NBA this year, he wouldn't be eligible for a 35% Max contract, so I think the contract he can sign as of 6/30 as a free agent and the contract he could sign now are both 30% Max deals. And while his current deal is a Designated Rookie deal, the extension he'd sign right now wouldn't be a Designated Veteran deal, as he hasn't met the qualifying criteria. So he could sign now, and we could then acquire AD, and Irving wouldn't be out a dime unless he makes All-NBA this year. Right?
     
  19. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Ingram just hasn’t panned out, and LA doesn’t really have anyone that matches Tatum. And they’re not going to get someone like that for what they have to offer. If Boston puts Tatum on the table the Lakers are cooked, no matter what LeBron wants.
     
  20. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    What about a worst case scenario of acquiring AD, expending our premium assets and him walking and signing with LA a year later? Seems like that would be the doomsday scenario.
     
  21. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    I'm of the opinion that the Pelicans will do the deal that is best for them, not for the agency. If the Celtics, or another team, make an offer that easily trumps what the Lakers offer, Davis gets traded to that team. However, I don't see Danny making any offer for Davis if he feels that there's more than a 10% chance of Davis walking a year later. The Celtics will want assurances that Davis wants to stay in Boston long term.
     
  22. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    I'll go on record saying that if Tatum is traded for AD, there will be no other significant asset in the trade. Klutch can get other teams involved all it wants, but none of those teams have Tatum-toppers (that they'd part with) either.

    Let's check back here next summer :)

    I do agree with Ben Hogan that I'd rather not include Tatum. Most of my thinking is based on the step back that Jaylen has taken this year. After last year's playoffs, he was considered a top asset (Lowe's piece on him during the summer is pretty representative of league valuation of him). However, he has a ways to go now to rebuild that asset value.
     
  23. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    AD is going to be a Laker. He holds all the cards - all he has to do is make clear that he won't sign long term in Boston and it no longer matters what Danny could put in a deal to beat Magic's offer.

    Lebron effectively runs the league, I'm not wasting any time thinking about how much better of a package the Celtics could put together, because it does not matter.

    Just add the Lebron + AD + 3rd star X Lakers to the list of teams this Celtics group needs to beat over the next couple of years.
     
  24. bosockboy

    bosockboy Member SoSH Member

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    You’re assuming that’s where AD wants to land.
     
  25. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Well yes, SAS is completely making shit up, because according to the terms of the CBA, unless Kyrie is involved in the deal, the Celtics cannot acquire AD until July.

    But still, it was strange wording to suggest that NO would turn down a hypothetical Tatum + Brown swap. Everyone is under the assumption that these scenarios are playing out only if AD tells NO that he wants out. And if that is the case, there is a high likelihood they would accept a deal like that, because it would be a substantial offer
     
  26. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    The exact same thing was said about Paul George.
     
  27. The Social Chair

    The Social Chair Member SoSH Member

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    Lebron isn't quite 2011 Kobe yet but there has been loud talk this year that other star players would rather not play with him.
     
  28. Jimbodandy

    Jimbodandy Member SoSH Member

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    The mythology of the Lakers is wonderful to behold.
     
  29. Van Everyman

    Van Everyman Member SoSH Member

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    This is actually a relevant point. A part of me wonders whether the Kyrie “Maximize My Potential” fallout w Lebron has changed some superstars’ equation about playing with him.
     
  30. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Yup. George said no. Durant already basically said no. Kawhi didn't seem overly interested although who knows with him. Kyrie seems popular around the league and he obviously hated playing with LeBron. I'm sure players are well aware of the pro's and con's of being LeBron's sidekick. And as good as LeBron is, any star going to LA is signing up for his age 35-39 seasons and will have immense pressure to win right away. It won't be for everyone.
     
  31. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Exactly. All evidence, aside from the Klutch representation, suggests that AD is way more buddy-buddy with Kyrie than with LeBron.
     
  32. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    Is Ingram still a major asset? He is taking a step back this season. Ball is the Lakers’ best asset. I would be apoplectic if the Celtics traded Tatum by himself for every one of the Lakers’ young guys.
     
  33. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think Ingram and Jaylen have comparable trade value. Both have some value and good but somewhat uncertain upside. Below are the 2018-2019 win shares for the BOS/LAL guys. Obviously not a perfect stat but a decent approximation of their value on the court so far this year.

    Tatum: 2.7
    Kuzma: 2.0
    Hart: 1.4
    Ball: 1.1
    Brown: 0.6
    Ingram: 0.3

    Now, if I had to rank the actual trade value, it would be something like this:

    Tatum

    Ball
    Brown / Ingram
    Kuzma
    Hart

    Tatum is by far the best prospect. Ball comes in 2nd right now although both Ingram and Brown are capable of being in that group. Kuzma and Hart are a notch below the younger guys due to their limited ceilings and being older. I agree with Devizier that I wouldn't trade Tatum for every single Lakers player on this list. And it's not even close.
     
  34. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    He is still only 21 years old, and I think many teams view him as just a bad fit with Lebron. However, I am unsure how big of an asset he is. His numbers are worse that Jaylen's across the board, and we all think that Brown's value has decreased quite a bit.
     
  35. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I think we are all playing (posting?) that nothing is happening until the summer when Davis says Yay or Nay to the supermax extension.

    I agree with this. Evaluators aren't fooled by Ingram and Jaylen's numbers/benching in a reduced role. The talk that either player is going through a "decline" is silly talk and not accounting for the circumstances they have been placed in. One thing that this has done for both players is give evaluators a more clear vision of what each player will look like moving forward and what their best fit would be on a team. Basically, they both need to have the ball in their hands creating as they are not comfortable playing off the ball.
     
  36. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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  37. Captaincoop

    Captaincoop Member SoSH Member

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    He didn't have Lebron in place in LA.

    And yes, I am assuming AD wants to be a Laker. Maybe he doesn't, but getting in bed with Klutch points in that direction.
     
  38. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Not officially, but I'm sure George knew.
     
  39. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I don't think he is, and likely less of an asset than Brown given how little he's shown to date. There's always the chance that he takes that Oladipo jump in his fifth season, but so far he's closer to a poor man's Andrew Wiggins. He's at his best with the ball in his hands, but even then he's not very good.

    He has all the physical talent in the world, athletic, insanely long. He should be a four positional defender like Brown, but he's shown no propensity for dedicating himself on that end of the floor. And his shooting just hasn't translated from high school. His offense isn't efficient enough to make up for the mediocre (at best) defense.

    Brown's struggling as a fourth/fifth wheel, but the struggles are all on the offensive end, he's been a defensive plus these last two years. And when he's been a second/third option in the past has provided some real firepower. So despite the struggles I suspect Brown has a lot more trade value because any team acquiring him is going to use him in a more featured role offensively.
     
  40. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    They both signed free agent contracts last summer. If George really wanted to play with LeBron he could have signed there. He chose to re-sign with the Thunder instead.
     
  41. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    According to RealGM Rich Paul has 24 clients and only two of them (Lebron, KCP) play for the Lakers. Yes, his biggest and most important client is on the Lakers but I'm just not sure how much we can draw from that. Maybe it means everything. Maybe nothing.

    As an aside, my biggest takeaway from Paul's client list is that he's done an amazing job at getting his guys huge contracts (Wall, Thomson, JR, Cory Joseph, Bledsoe and Koufas, to name a few),
     
    #141 cheech13, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
  42. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Let’s keep things real here. Even though the NBA investigates and determined that LeBron didn’t have an ownership stake in Klutch that is only because he’s not a fool who would leave a paper trail. Rich Paul has long been one of his best friends and he literally gave the Cavs no choice but to sign “his clients” JR and Tristan to silly deals by holding the franchise hostage. There is a decent chance that LeBron is calling the major shots for Paul in many instances.
     
  43. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Sure, but the JR/Tristan example is Paul using his LeBron leverage to work big deals for his clients...ie exactly what an agency should do. That's very, very different from pushing his clients to play with LeBron.

    The narrative where Klutch's desire to send AD to LA forces Danny to overpay also makes less than zero sense. If Klutch makes it known that AD wants to play in LA, Danny isn't going to offer anything of value for him. It would be almost identical to the Kawhi situation, where the Celtics probably could have had him for Jaylen+, but had no assurances of re-signing.
     
  44. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    Good point, Klutch should collect the largest contracts from all the owners, much like David Falk did in the Jordan era.

    Rich Paul/Klutch will advise AD. BUT at the end of the day if AD says he wants to play with Kyrie in Boston or LeBron in LA or stay in NOLA. That's what will happen.

    If AD says he will only sign a long-term deal with Boston. The Celtics won't need to offer Tatum, since no one will offer anything close to Brown/Horford/Picks for a 1yr rental of AD. Nola will take the best deal Danny will offer, and not look bad. We all know Danny won't bid against himself.

    If AD says he will only sign a long-term deal with LA. The Celtics won't roll the dice and offer Tatum for a 1yr AD rental.


    *EDIT: exactly what lovegtm said above
     
  45. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    And, really the risk the Lakers take by not going all in today is that, like George, Davis might like playing for his new team and stay there.
     
  46. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    The Lakers are actually in a semi tough spot unless the behind-the-scenes "AD to LA" stuff is already in motion, which it certainly could be. The Pelicans aren't trading AD before the summer so they have no real advantage over Boston's Kyrie handcuff and then come summer time, the Celtics will be able to enter the bidding with better assets to deal. The 2019 draft will be fun because we may have no idea who Ainge is drafting each player for.
     
  47. cheech13

    cheech13 Member SoSH Member

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    While I won't deny the Paul-Lebron connection or the outsized influence many agents have with teams, I'm not sure your example tells us much. Tristan was drafted by the Cavs before Lebron came back, and while the team did trade for JR it was only because the Knicks made them as part of the Shumpert deal. Of course Cleveland brought them back in free agency at above market prices, but that had as much to with their lack of options to replace them and Paul's leverage in the negotiations than anything specifically Lebron-related.

    I guess my point is that the sample sizes are too small and the situations too fluid for us to glean anything from these historical examples to tell us much about AD's choice in representation.
     
    #147 cheech13, Dec 19, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
  48. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    7,617
    This is old but still awesome:
    ESPN
     
  49. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  50. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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