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Anthony Davis, newest Klutch Sports client.....hmmmm

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by HomeRunBaker, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    He scored almost 16 PPG as a rookie on 54.5% eFG%. Davis didn’t top that until last year (by only 1.3%), and Westbrook hasn’t come within 5% of it in his career.

    You’re overestimating the necessity for a 6’10” player with many other skills to shoot three pointers. Davis doesn’t need to, and neither does Simmons.
     
  2. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah. And while they aren't duplicates, one of Simmons or Embiid will have to develop a respectable 3 point shot for spacing not to be a huge issue in the playoffs. In a 7 game series, it is too easy to plan against.

    Wouldn't it make more sense to trade Embiid for Davis though? Would Embiid and Davis be a good pairing or would they get diminished returns?
     
  3. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Who said anything about 3 pointers? Simmons can't even hit 15 footers right now. Anthony Davis is a better offensive player and a much better defender. Simmons ain't getting to his level. Very good player but if I can get an MVP-calibre guy in his prime, I'm doing it and Simmons is not getting in my way if I think an Embiid/Davis pairing can work.
     
  4. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    The Kings pick landing first is, literally, the least likely scenario. (Well, technically the kings pick landing 16th is less likely.) Even if they finish with the worst record in the NBA (unlikely given that the Hawks are still in the NBA), there's a five in six chance that the pick is 2-5.

    Also, unless Rozier is willing to make a huge bet, the odds are pretty good that Boston inks him to an extension.
     
  5. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Again, that’s great that YOU think Davis is MVP-caliber and Simmons is not. But others certainly disagree.

    Also, Simmons was 12 of 30 from non-heaves from 16 feet and out last year. So the claim that he can’t even hit a 15-footer is not really true.
     
  6. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    That ignores the huge difference in FT shooting. I'd also guess Simmons would be a better basketball player hitting 33% of his 3s on 3-4 attempts a game despite it lowering his eFG%. He needs 4 other guys on the court who can shoot.
     
  7. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    But the problem is that it's still possible. That's a huge risk for a gm... one that can get him fired if he takes the chance and it fails.

    As for Rozier, I'm sure there's a team out there (hello Phoenix!) that would bank a lot on him as a starter, I really don't see him taking less to remain a backup when he can get a starter's job elsewhere
     
  8. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    The fact that there are areas where he can and almost certainly will improve is a feature, not a bug, IMO. He and Davis were very close in value by many metrics last season, on Simmons’s first trip through the league. There’s every reason to expect he’ll get better.
     
  9. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    For all the great bigs in the game today, none of them have won anything. So there may be something to that argument. That doesn't mean Simmons is a potential top 3 player, though. It just means AD isn't as good as people are making him out to be.
     
  10. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He'll improve in lots of areas but I'm not sure how much he'll improve his FT shooting or his range. You mentioned he was 12/18 in non heaves, but that's in 81 games. Teams will not respect that and will challenge him to take the shot in the playoffs. His eFG% of 54.5% dropped to 48.8% in the playoffs.

    He's also so bad at the line I'm not sure one should expect him to improve. He probably will but we thought that about Rondo.
     
  11. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    He shot 67% from FT in college (on nearly the same number of shots as last year), and shot 71% in the playoffs. He’s not going to be in the 50s from the free throw line.

    And AD shot like 35% from 16ft-3pt. You really think it’s more valuable to take those few hundred extra shots? It’s not.
     
  12. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    If the Kings pick is top 4, I think the final deal would look more like Rozier+ pick. It sounds low, but that's really hard to top for a disgruntled player, unless Brandon Ingram breaks out in a big way.

    Brown is getting very close to untouchable imo. If he has a breakout 1st half (think Oladipoesque), I can't see them moving him along with the pick--it would probably be either/or.
     
  13. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. Win shares isn’t a perfect stat but AD was 4th last year and Simmons was 18th. Top 3 is a huge hurdle for a guy who can’t shoot.
     
  14. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Wow, he made 12 whole 16+ footers in a full season? Impressive! It's clear we disagree on Simmons' potential. I like him as a Top 10 guy and you and that 538 model think higher. We'll see how it plays out.
     
  15. PC Drunken Friar

    PC Drunken Friar Member SoSH Member

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    Top 3 for Simmons... When? You think Lebron, Durant, Curry, The Freak, Harden, Westbrook, Leonard, Davis, etc will fall off soon? Or a young gun won't rise to the top? That's way too many players to think Simmons will be top 3 anytime soon.
     
  16. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    This is basically my point. You have the current stars right now in LeBron, Durant, Harden, Curry, etc. You have AD and the Freak who are basically right there. You have Kawhi who is still young enough to get back there. Embiid is pretty close. Towns has the ability but will need to improve on defense. And then you have guys like Tatum who could be making meteoric rise in coming years. Simmons is a very valuable player but I don't see a path to Top 3 status anytime soon, if ever.
     
  17. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    He's a top 3 player under the age of 23, anyway. Arguably the best with Mitchell and Tatum alongside with him. It also amazes me Myles Turner and Devin Booker aren't even 23 yet, hell Booker isn't even 22 and is a few months younger than Simmons.

    edit: Well, top 3 player ending the 17/18 season under age 22 anyway. A few guys turn 23 during the season like Towns.
     
  18. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    It’s actually a helluva lot more impressive to me than the 35% AD shot on 261 shots from the same distance. They are awful shots for either player, but Simmons is smart enough not to launch three or four of them per game.

    Look, at the end of the day, their main scoring value is at the rim, and they were equally proficient. AD shot .739 on 625 attempts at the rim. Simmons shot .733 on 528 attempts as a rookie. Beyond that, Davis takes a whole lot of inefficient shots (106 of 257 from 10-16 ft) to downright bad shots that he absolutely should not be taking (91 of 261 from 16ft-3pt). Simmons instead passes those shots up, and averages 8.2 assists a game. You can debate the value of an assist, but it’s really not debatable that the 6 or 7 ppg Davis puts up on 10 footers to the 3 pt line are not the best and highest use of offensive possessions.[/QUOTE]
     
  19. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    It's not as simple as it being inefficient. A team actually has to guard AD from 3 point range, they can sag off Ben Simmons if he's further than 16 feet away from the hoop. It impacts the other 4 players on the court. It's essentially 4 vs 5.

    It's not a problem in regular season. It is a big one in the playoffs.
     
  20. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Right. That’s why the Sixers didn’t beat the Celtics. I see we’ve just moved on to fantasyland. I’m done with this discussion. We’ll see how it plays out.
     
  21. Marbleheader

    Marbleheader Dope Dope

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    Yeah, let's end the thread hijack
     
  22. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    Except he isn't disgruntled. The entire fandom wants him to be, but as of now he isn't
     
  23. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Maybe not. But history tells us guys like him end up getting traded.
     
  24. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    There would be zero risk as New Orleans won't even be facing this decision until the summer of 2019. He isn't being dealt this year. I’ve made clear that I can’t see Davis wanting out with his DPVE deal around the corner.

    If the Pelicans move him it will be because they don’t believe in their ability to put a winning team around him due to cap mismanagement and have decided to start over. And there will be a bidding war when he goes on the market.

    If Brown’s development continues, then I could see a Brown/Rozier for Davis deal as Jaylen really does look like he could be Jimmy Butler v2.0. And the Pelicans just aren’t likely to do much better than a future all star wing and a scoring guard for the Unibrower.
     
  25. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Rondo has a career avg of 2.2 FTA/g. If he improved his FT shooting from 60% to 75% you're talking about a whopping difference of one-third of one point per game. Since he left Boston, Rondo has shot a very respectable 35.7% behind the arc on over 500 attempts. You have to recognize that this player has reinvented himself over the past several seasons.
     
  26. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Sorry, I should clarify: I'm only talking about the scenario in which he demands a trade. Unless and until he demands one, the Pels are never dealing him.
     
  27. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Or until the day Demps is fired. That would seem to signal ownerships new direction.
     
  28. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    "Contrary to what has become gospel in the NBA rumor mill — Anthony Davis is a lock to end up with the Los Angeles Lakers next season — the situation with one of the league’s Top 3 players remains fluid. For now.

    But most importantly as it pertains to the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are very much in play as the ultimate long-term landing zone for the best player on the New Orleans Pelicans.

    A source with intimate knowledge of the inner workings of the NBA told Get More Sports that Davis is considering five teams in the near and distant future: The Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers.

    The determining factor in the short term will be the level of success the Pelicans do or do not have during the first half of the upcoming 2018-19 season. If they are middle-of-the-pack or worse in the competitive Western Conference, it is more likely than not that Davis will be moved before the trading deadline.

    And if that becomes the case, no team is more primed to exchange a bushel full of assets than the Celtics, whose president, Danny Ainge, has long coveted Davis.

    “Winning and being the best player on the floor every night” matter most to Davis, according to the source, who spoke to Get More Sports on the condition of anonymity."

    https://www.getmoresports.com/anthony-davis-trade-possibilities-celtics-lakers-sixers-knicks-odds/

    The only way to get AD this year is either if Kyrie is included in a deal or he signs a new contract. Both are nearly impossibly happening.
     
  29. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I saw that but attribute Chris Sheridan's "sources" to clickbait as he reportedly owns a piece of BetDSI which of course he links in his column. He's done the same thing in the past when releasing a column naming the Celtics as the favorite to acquire Kawhi Leonard this summer. I don't give him much credibility in having actual sources as a sports gambling tout and journalist.
     
  30. RIFan

    RIFan Member SoSH Member

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    The Celtics can’t trade for Davis while Kyrie is on his current contract. The Rose rule prevents that from happening.

    From http://www.celticslife.com/2018/06/the-derrick-rose-rule-any-celtics-trade.html?m=1
    According to Dan Greenberg, players fall under this rule when satisfying the following criteria:
    If a player on his rookie contract accomplishes one of the following – (1) earns All-NBA first-, second- or third-team honors twice, (2) is voted an NBA All-Star starter by the fans twice, or (3) named NBA MVP – his salary slot will be eligible for the Tier 2 maximum salary (30 percent) when the extension begins in his fifth season.

    Once again, per Dan Greenberg, an NBA team can only have one such player acquired via trade on the roster. This means that the Celtics could not have traded for Davis with Kyrie Irving as a Celtic
     
  31. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    That’s good info. Contained 2 posts above yours.
     
  32. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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  33. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    "In the works" meaning Klutch wants him to go there, and he'll only sign there?
     
  34. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    A trade has been in the works for years? Come on...
     
  35. lexrageorge

    lexrageorge Member SoSH Member

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    It makes zero sense for the Pelicans to rush to trade Davis to the Lakers for nothing if they assume the Celtics can present them an unbeatable offer in the summer.
     
  36. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Well it is Sheridan he does tend to embellish.


    Well I mean I wouldn't call Ball and Ingram to start as being for nothing.....but yeah the Celtics can certainly put together the better offer while having the advantage of being in the other conference which would have to be appealing to New Orleans.
     
  37. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Isn't the concern going to be whether AD wants to sign with the Celtics? They easily can put together the better trade packages.
     
  38. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Yes that's always been the battle which was the premise of this thread. Klutch and AD working to get to LA versus Ainge's trust in his ability to convince AD to buy in to Boston.
     
  39. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Seems like any potential Celtics deal — from the perspective of you guys and AD — really needs to end up with a Big 3 of Kyrie-Tatum-AD.

    How enticing of a package can the Cs put together without including either of the Dukies, especially with the draft pick assets (SAC #1 and MEM #1 in particular) looking a bit less appealing than they did going into the season? Does Brown + picks + Hayward or Horford beat what the Lakers can offer (presumably some combo of Ingram, Kuzma, Hart and salary ballast)?

    Honestly, if I'm NO, I don't love either of those returns, but I guess if AD demands out and strictly limits his potential landing places, their hands could be tied.

    Still seems unlikely that NO would be motivated to move him during the season, given that he'll still have a boatload of trade value next summer.
     
  40. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    The Celtics could have as many as 4 first round picks in the 2019 draft with at least 1 likely to be a lotto pick. It’s not the bounty we were hoping for but that’s a lot of cheap, controllable talent for a franchise that would need it. Celtics also have Williams. Jaylen hasn’t played well so far this season but he remains a very good long-term prospect, at least on par with Ball and Ingram.

    End of the day, Danny can top any deal the Lakers offer if he wants to dangle Tatum so it just depends on what AD wants. Nothing happens until this summer at the very earliest.
     
  41. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    A lot depends on where Jaylen's value stands by the time the trade rolls around. It's down a bit from the spring, but as recently as a week ago Zach Lowe thought Jaylen to the Wiz for Beal was too much, and that's probably an accurate reflection of his perception. If NO does like Jaylen as much or more than Ingram, the picks the Celtics can offer easily top Kuzma/Hart etc for a rebuilding team. The conference consideration matters a lot, too.

    NO will ask for Tatum, but I can't see any way Ainge does it.
     
  42. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, it’s not a deal I’d make until Davis signed his DPVE deal.
     
  43. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    If he signs the deal, he's not getting traded for awhile: NO would hang on to him for dear life at that point.

    The likely trigger for his trade will come if he turns down the DPVE when NO offers it in July. If he signs it, he'll be a Pelican for a long time.
     
  44. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I'm not arguing any of that, I've consistently said that we're three to four years from a Davis trade because I don't see any scenario where he doesn't sign the 35% max deal. The amounts of money we're discussing are just too large, there's another cap increase coming, so his new deal is going to be even larger than Wall's 5/≈210 one.

    The one scenario I can see where he does get dealt is if ownership decides that Dell Demps has so badly screwed the payroll up that they can't build a winner around Davis, but even there they'll wait to get his name inked on a new deal to maximise the return in trade.
     
  45. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    It's definitely a lot of money, but Kawhi turned it down. (I know the Spurs didn't publicly offer it, but if Kawhi had gone to the Spurs and said "I'm healthy, I like you guys, make me the offer," he was getting it.)
     
  46. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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  47. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Saw this on social media but did not hear Stephen A say it myself: apparently he said today on his radio show that the Celtics have called the Pelicans and told them that Tatum and Brown are both on the table for Anthony Davis.
     
  48. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I mean, maybe, but I don't think SAS is especially plugged in in Boston, and it would be rather unseemly to leak (if you're NO) that the Celtics are offering guys that they can't trade yet (in the sense that we have to wait until Kyrie signs his deal).
     
  49. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I'm sure Danny has a good sense of what it'll take to land AD if he's made available this summer so none of this is really news either way. In the meantime, I will continue to root against SAC and MEM will every ounce of my being in the hope that they both fall in the 9-12 range.
     
  50. Montana Fan

    Montana Fan Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    No comment necessary but I think Kyrie would LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to beat Lebron in this pursuit.

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