Andrew Benintendi

Traut · May 22, 2017

Player comes up and hits. Major League pitchers develop a book on the hitter. Pitchers make adjustments. Hitter struggles to make changes to counter adjustments made by pitchers. Everything in his pedigree suggests he will hit. Ten games is way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from.

Saints Rest · May 22, 2017

Success upon first call-up.
Extended struggles.
Then either improvement or disaster.

We've seen this many times before, with both end results.

Bogaerts
JBJ
Middlebrooks
Pedroia

To name just a few.

This slump doesn't concern me. It's the next 200-400 ABs that will be more telling.

Detts · May 22, 2017

Saints Rest said:
Success upon first call-up.
Extended struggles.
Then either improvement or disaster.

We've seen this many times before, with both end results.

Bogaerts

JBJ

Middlebrooks

Pedroia

To name just a few.

This slump doesn't concern me. It's the next 200-400 ABs that will be more telling.

One of these things is not like the ooooooothers....

IdiotKicker · May 22, 2017

LD% is way down in May, so while BABIP is being unkind, it's not being overly-unkind based on the batted ball profile he's putting out there. Still a tiny sample size, so not a ton of glean from it, but something to watch over the next couple months.

drbretto · May 22, 2017

This is the real test for an up and coming Major League player. Anyone can have a hot couple of months, but not everyone gets past the hump when the league catches on. That said, from everything I've seen with this guy, I am about as comfortable as one can be. He'll adjust and settle.

Curt S Loew · May 22, 2017

Detts said:
One of these things is not like the ooooooothers....

More than one, actually.

Savin Hillbilly · May 22, 2017

Curt S Loew said:
More than one, actually.

Which I think is sort of the point. This is not a story with a predictable ending. We're still in the first act, and it's too soon to tell if it's a comedy or a tragedy we're watching. Like most here, I think Benintendi's fundamentals as a hitter are very sound, so I'm not seriously worried. But you never know.

Curt S Loew · May 22, 2017

Savin Hillbilly said:
Which I think is sort of the point. This is not a story with a predictable ending. We're still in the first act, and it's too soon to tell if it's a comedy or a tragedy we're watching. Like most here, I think Benintendi's fundamentals as a hitter are very sound, so I'm not seriously worried. But you never know.

Exactly. This is his first real struggle in the big leagues. It happens.

Saints Rest · May 22, 2017

Curt S Loew said:
Exactly. This is his first real struggle in the big leagues. It happens.

Correct. The early struggle happens. Not always, (cf. Mookie), but pretty damn often. More often than not, I would say.

The bigger question is not about whether we should worry about this run of poor outcome AB's, but rather what will happen in July-September.

gryoung · May 22, 2017

IMHO, Farrell putting him into the 4-spot was a mistake. Lots of pressure for a rookie. Compounding the mistake was Farrell's decision to just leave him there while he continued to generate lots of o-fers.

I'm not saying this was the singular cause of his slump, but it sure didn't provide any relief for the kid while he dealt with pitching adjustments.

Savin Hillbilly · May 22, 2017

Saints Rest said:
Correct. The early struggle happens. Not always, (cf. Mookie)

Mookie actually struggled a lot harder early in his first full season than Benintendi has. His season line on May 22, 2015 was .233/.293/.393 (cf. Benintendi's .280/.355/.422).

Savin Hillbilly · May 22, 2017

gryoung said:
Compounding the mistake was Farrell's decision to just leave him there while he continued to generate lots of o-fers.

This is a great example of the "heads I win, tails Farrell loses" school of manager criticism around here. If Farrell had yanked Benintendi out of the 4 hole after a few 0-fer games, and he had then continued to shoot blanks, we'd all be saying that Farrell had messed up the kid's confidence and should have given him more time.

SouthernBoSox · May 22, 2017

He also raked for 3-4 games after the move to 4th.

MikeM · May 22, 2017

Savin Hillbilly said:
This is a great example of the "heads I win, tails Farrell loses" school of manager criticism around here. If Farrell had yanked Benintendi out of the 4 hole after a few 0-fer games, and he had then continued to shoot blanks, we'd all be saying that Farrell had messed up the kid's confidence and should have given him more time.

IDK, that kinda depends if you thought or were insisting that he should have ever been hitting in the 4 spot to begin with.

I know I wasn't. If anything might mess with his development there, it's telling him "You are now the clean up hitter for the $200m Boston Red Sox. No pressure kid, and just completely forget the fact that we still need somebody to make things happen in the middle now that Ortiz is gone ".

patoaflac · May 22, 2017

MikeM said:
IDK, that kinda depends if you thought or were insisting that he should have ever been hitting in the 4 spot to begin with.

I know I wasn't. If anything might mess with his development there, it's telling him "You are now the clean up hitter for the $200m Boston Red Sox. No pressure kid, and just completely forget the fact that we still need somebody to make things happen in the middle now that Ortiz is gone ".

I brought the point in a game thread some days ago. It´s absurd to put him in the cleanup spot. In the 75 WS, Lynn batted fifth after Yaz and Fisk. Why? Because although he would become the MVP, he was a rookie and pressure exists. The only thing you could provoke is loss of confidence. Farell never should have done this, and should have stopped the experiment when he was 0 for 3 games.

jercra · May 22, 2017

Is it a bad idea to play the hot hand at cleanup in the abstract? I know that batting order has been shown to not be particularly important in the long term but, pitching your best pitcher in the highest leverage, does it make sense to have your hottest hitter(s) in the 3/4/5 slots and move them around throughout the season as players go through hot/cold streaks? I get that there are psychological reasons not to do it (players like predictability, don't want to move someone if they are in a hot streak, etc.) but just from a pure numbers perspective, does it make sense? If a team started doing that, would it ease some of the psychological reasons in that players would know that the hot hand, no matter who it is, would be in the middle of the order? I know it's not exactly on topic but my thinking is that if Benintendi knew he was going to cleanup while he was hot and then out of it when he cooled down the pressure to perform may be eased.

Savin Hillbilly · May 22, 2017

jercra said:
Is it a bad idea to play the hot hand at cleanup in the abstract? I know that batting order has been shown to not be particularly important in the long term but, pitching your best pitcher in the highest leverage, does it make sense to have your hottest hitter(s) in the 3/4/5 slots and move them around throughout the season as players go through hot/cold streaks?

Isn't there a pretty serious recency bias/market timing issue here? How do you decide when a hot streak is well established enough to warrant juggling the order, and how do you know that the streak won't end as soon as you do that?

I think you have to look at your best estimate of a player's true skill level at that moment in his career, and slot him with that in mind, without worrying about this week's performance. There might come a point where you realize that a player has established a new level (for better or worse) and adjust the lineup accordingly. But I don't think it's smart to do it in response to streaks.

threecy · May 22, 2017

patoaflac said:
I brought the point in a game thread some days ago. It´s absurd to put him in the cleanup spot. In the 75 WS, Lynn batted fifth after Yaz and Fisk. Why? Because although he would become the MVP, he was a rookie and pressure exists. The only thing you could provoke is loss of confidence. Farell never should have done this, and should have stopped the experiment when he was 0 for 3 games.

...except Lynn started in the clean up spot 105 (out of 140 starts) in 1975...

uk_sox_fan · May 23, 2017

MikeM said:
IDK, that kinda depends if you thought or were insisting that he should have ever been hitting in the 4 spot to begin with.

I know I wasn't. If anything might mess with his development there, it's telling him "You are now the clean up hitter for the $200m Boston Red Sox. No pressure kid, and just completely forget the fact that we still need somebody to make things happen in the middle now that Ortiz is gone ".

From everything we've seen about Benintendi's psychological makeup, the kid is supremely self-confident. I would highly doubt that putting him 4th in the lineup would suddenly shatter his makeup.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/04/12/more-ways-than-one-andrew-benintendi-prefers-direct-route/FjzKjTN6PHHGhZy3dxrGRN/story.html

“What’s made him such a good player and allowed him to have the level of success he’s had so far is the makeup, the intangibles,” said Mears. “Whether he’s facing a Cy Young winner, or the Sunday starter against Arkansas, his approach to the game in every at-bat was always the same. I just think it’s such a separator for him.

http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20170409/red-sox-bet-andrew-benintendi-can-join-mount-rushmore-of-left-fielders

But if that swing is what has gotten Benintendi to the majors so quickly, it might be his demeanor that allows him to stay here for a while. The former first-round pick has described his mindset as one of “quiet confidence,” and in a limited time he hasn’t appeared prone to self-doubt or sensitive to the expectations or criticisms of outsiders.

“You just kind of let it go in one ear, out the other. People like to talk about it,” he said of the hype entering the season. “I don’t feel any pressure. I just go out there, play well, and the main goal is to win. When you do that, people will be happy.”

MikeM · May 23, 2017

While the somewhat typical feel good story pieces are nice, at the end of the day you are still talking about a young kid who probably spent most of his life being the best baseball player on the field, and putting him in the rather alien situation where that is just not going to be the case anymore.

His makeup is indeed good enough that I'm also less worried about "shattering" him then I am with slowing the development and adjustment process down . But maybe that just boils down to that rather old school belief that you don't rush the kid into a surrounding "no limits' situation that might leave him trying to do too much too soon.

Darnell's Son · May 24, 2017

iayork wrote about Benintendi's slumpage for the .com today

redsoxstiff · May 29, 2017

Trautwein's Degree said:
Player comes up and hits. Major League pitchers develop a book on the hitter. Pitchers make adjustments. Hitter struggles to make changes to counter adjustments made by pitchers. Everything in his pedigree suggests he will hit. Ten games is way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from.

What he saId. Too much athleticism to fail without a great deal of patience and considered optimimsm.

charlieoscar · May 29, 2017

Benintendi's swing doesn't look the same to me as it did at the beginning of the season; it doesn't look as compact. Whether this is due to a change in the pitches he is seeing may be a possibility.

joe dokes · May 31, 2017

bosox79 said:
Last 73 PA, .133/.247/.150 with a .151 BAbip. Since his 5/5 game on April 23rd, he is slashing .214/.298/.357 with a .215 BAbip over 131 PA.

Since it coincides with JBJ being productive, just platoon him with Young for a bit to give him a breather.

pokey_reese · May 31, 2017

bosox79 said:
Last 73 PA, .133/.247/.150 with a .151 BAbip. Since his 5/5 game on April 23rd, he is slashing .214/.298/.357 with a .215 BAbip over 131 PA.

On the plus side, in May he actually improved his BB and K rates, respectively. However, his LD% dropped from 24.7 to 9.8(!), with a slight increase in GB rate and drop in HR/FB, so there is your BABIP swing. With a .300 BABIP it looks like he should be about a .280/.350/.410 hitter this year, which with good defense makes him serviceable, but below what you would want out of a Fenway LF on a contending club. Good for a rookie, but yeah, he's a rookie.

MikeM · Jun 2, 2017

Starting to get to the point where DD should be out there looking for another De Aza type, pump the brakes some on the fast track stuff, and let the kid figure stuff out in AAA.

benhogan · Jun 4, 2017

MikeM said:
Starting to get to the point where DD should be out there looking for another De Aza type, pump the brakes some on the fast track stuff, and let the kid figure stuff out in AAA.

Its tough to swallow watching him struggle (and simultaneously watching Aaron Judge have the kind of year we dreamt of for Beni).

Moving him to AAA after a tough month and having DD trade for a league average OFer is a slight overreaction.

Move him down and swap him with JBJ in the line up. Platoon him with Young versus LHP for a bit. Have him work with Chili. He'll figure it out, it feels very much like Mookie's rookie year.

Savin Hillbilly · Jun 4, 2017

benhogan said:
He'll figure it out, it feels very much like Mookie's rookie year.

It's more than a feeling (cue 70s guitar riffs....)

Mookie Betts' slash line after June 3, 2015: .238/.297/.374
Andrew Benintendi's slash line after June 3, 2017: .259/.332/.376

Benintendi's actually doing a bit better than Mookie was, especially in the discipline department.

grimshaw · Jun 4, 2017

I mean, the alternative is Steve Selsky. There is nothing else down there unless they move someone like Rusney back on the 40 man. If he was a one-dimensional guy who could only hit, then maybe. But he helps in other ways, so I 'd just as soon ride it out.

MikeM · Jun 4, 2017

benhogan said:
Moving him to AAA after a tough month and having DD trade for a league average OFer is a slight overreaction.

Is it really though, or is a surface need/desire to absolutely insist on the kid being some super advanced for his age hitter that shouldn't need anymore minor league seasoning somewhat clouding that view point?

I guess at the end of the day this just all feels too much like a "panicky" rush job to me, and without a really good reason or need to even do stuff like keep him at the top of the lineup as long as we have.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jun 4, 2017

MikeM said:
Is it really though, or is a surface need/desire to absolutely insist on the kid being some super advanced for his age hitter that shouldn't need anymore minor league seasoning somewhat clouding that view point?

I guess at the end of the day this just all feels too rushed as a whole to me, and without a really good reason or need to even do stuff like keep him at the top of the lineup as long as we have.

This isn't a matter of him having a systemic issue with his plate approach. This is the major leagues. Pitchers make adjustments. For the first time in his career, he needs to make an adjustment in return. That takes time, especially the first time. He has excellent contact skills. This will be much more like Mookie's slump than Xander's (though Xander has done a remarkable job of altering his approach to become a better contact hitter and close the hole he had in his swing in 2014).

Move him down in the order, but sending him to AAA would be a terribly short sighted decision. So yes, you're overreacting.

drbretto · Jun 4, 2017

If there is any experience Benintendi needs right now, it's major league experience. This isn't uncommon. We just gotta wait it out.

I know, Middlebrooks. It can happen. But, there's a reason they gave him so long. If his patience is still good and he doesn't look completely demoralized out there, all you can do is wait. He needs to learn how to be a major leaguer. He doesn't need to work on the basics.

richgedman'sghost · Jun 6, 2017

MikeM said:
Is it really though, or is a surface need/desire to absolutely insist on the kid being some super advanced for his age hitter that shouldn't need anymore minor league seasoning somewhat clouding that view point?

I guess at the end of the day this just all feels too much like a "panicky" rush job to me, and without a really good reason or need to even do stuff like keep him at the top of the lineup as long as we have.

I guess it's pretty good that we did not follow your advice and send him to Pawtucket. He seems pretty locked in at the plate now. Pitches that he was missing before or popping out are now being hit out. Patience is the name of the game .

MikeM · Jun 6, 2017

richgedman'sghost said:
I guess it's pretty good that we did not follow your advice and send him to Pawtucket. He seems pretty locked in at the plate now. Pitches that he was missing before or popping out are now being hit out. Patience is the name of the game .

Like the post stated before you, 2 game sample size. Good to see it though and hopefully it continues. Feel free to get back to me in a week or so with the "I told you so's" and I'll gladly eat more of them.

(plus my initial comment was partially dependent on digging up a decent placeholder btw, which we didn't have then or now anyway. It's not like i was suggesting we simply send him down for the hell of it)

flymrfreakjar · Jun 7, 2017

bosox79 said:
Just for giggles. Jacoby Elsbury's slump was over 69 games and 290 PA. He hit .240/.273/.309 with 9bb/51k and a BAbip of .284.

Thank you for the much needed perspective. There will be more bumps in the road, but the kid has shown the ability to adjust to every challenge presented to him. Love watching him play.

And I'd venture the 'strength' in Ellsbury's numbers compared to the rest is probably entirely due to his elite speed (speed don't slump!) and a smattering of IF hits.

luckysox · Jun 14, 2017

Pitching adjusts to rookies. Good rookies adjust back. There ought be no worry regarding 10D. He's going to rake, and he's going to do it for a long time.

Average Reds · Jun 14, 2017

MikeM said:
Like the post stated before you, 2 game sample size. Good to see it though and hopefully it continues. Feel free to get back to me in a week or so with the "I told you so's" and I'll gladly eat more of them.

How do you like your "I told you so" served?

MikeM · Jun 14, 2017

Average Reds said:
How do you like your "I told you so" served?

I'm a medium rare guy.

Although eating this bump response after the upcoming Houston series would of made me a lot happier overall then another 2 great games (at the plate) against Philly sandwiched between a 2-13 stretch. Not that I'm left complaining or anything though.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jul 4, 2017

First Red Sox rookie with 2 5 hit games in a season. Ever.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 5, 2017

After tonight's game Andrew's batting line is uncannily similar to last year's:

2016: .295/.359/.476
2017: .288/.361/.465

But the component pieces tell an encouraging story, because he has achieved that similar line in 2017 by walking more (10.2% to 8.5%), striking out less (15.6% to 21.2%), and hittting more home runs (21.6 to 10.2 per 600 PA), while his BABIP has dropped to a more or less average rate (.367 to .307). There's less luck in his line this year, and more mastery.

BTW, with Mookie at 15, Andrew at 12 and JBJ at 11, all three Sox starting outfielders are on a pace to hit 20 or more HR this year. When was the last time that happened?

1984: Jim Rice 28, Tony Armas 43, Dwight Evans 32

DeadlySplitter · Jul 5, 2017

he's been struggling making any contact with fastballs dotted away. see how that goes after this career game

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