All-Star Rosters 2017

CaptainLaddie

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Every year I like to predict who will make the All-Star teams. This year is no different.

I use the current voting leaders as the starters -- no deviation from that. The rest of the roster isn't dependent on any one stat or reason. Some guys with higher WARs or WS won't be listed in favor of a guy having an inferior season simply because of name.


A few notes:
- I think Trout still ends up making the starters, even if he doesn't play another inning before the ASG.
- I had Freddie Freeman as the Braves rep, but since he's unlikely to make the team via voting, we need a different Braves rep, so... Matt Kemp? Not a great selection, but he's no Mike Williams making the 2003 NL team.
- I think Tito ends up taking a bunch of "his guys", especially in the bullpen.
- Picking a Phillies rep was not much fun. I guess you could make the argument for Pat Neshek in the bullpen, but he's a middle reliever.
 

jon abbey

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Hicks is having a very good season, but he's a 4th outfielder, so I'm sure there are better candidates there. I think Betances and Severino have good cases from the pitching side, especially Betances who has made the team each of the last three seasons and who has incredible numbers so far.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Mitch Haniger has been great, but he's missed more than a month and isn't all that close to returning. I can't see him making it. If the Mariners are inexplicably getting a third position player, it would likely be Cano wouldn't it?
 

grimshaw

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Aaron Altherr is probably the Phillies best bet. - wRC+ of 154. I'd replace Braun with him. Dude can't stay healthy anyhow.
 

trekfan55

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- I think Tito ends up taking a bunch of "his guys", especially in the bullpen.
Haven't they changed the rules to prevent this? I mean Cody Allen and Andrew Miller cretainly deserve to make the All Star Team but I'm not sure he can just pick his guys over someone else.
 

Ale Xander

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Pedey doesn't deserve to be 1st, but shocked he isn't in top 5 in votes among 2B.
 

Oppo

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Worst 2 starters for each league: Miggy, Castro, Rizzo, Heyward

I'd replace them with Alonso (would never happen), Altuve or Cano (surprised they aren't getting the popular/name vote), Goldy (Rizzo having a decent year, but the NL is stacked at 1b), and literally anyone else over Heyward
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Worst 2 starters for each league: Miggy, Castro, Rizzo, Heyward

I'd replace them with Alonso (would never happen), Altuve or Cano (surprised they aren't getting the popular/name vote), Goldy (Rizzo having a decent year, but the NL is stacked at 1b), and literally anyone else over Heyward
While I agree Altuve is a much better player and will probably win the starting job eventually, Castro has a higher batting average, more RBIs (by one), the same homers and the same runs. So it's not like he's chopped liver out there.
 

jon abbey

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While I agree Altuve is a much better player and will probably win the starting job eventually, Castro has a higher batting average, more RBIs (by one), the same homers and the same runs. So it's not like he's chopped liver out there.
He's a pretty bad defender (-16.2 UZR/150 currently), he barely deserves to be starting for NY, let alone the All-Star game. I'm sure it's just the Cubs fans combining with the Yankee fans plus his fast offensive start, but he doesn't come close to deserving it.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Hicks is having a very good season, but he's a 4th outfielder, so I'm sure there are better candidates there. I think Betances and Severino have good cases from the pitching side, especially Betances who has made the team each of the last three seasons and who has incredible numbers so far.
Hicks has an OPS that's good for third in the AL and plays good defense. He deserves to be there, especially since in his fourth outfielder role, he's ended up with the 5th most WAR among AL OF.

Mitch Haniger has been great, but he's missed more than a month and isn't all that close to returning. I can't see him making it. If the Mariners are inexplicably getting a third position player, it would likely be Cano wouldn't it?
This was an oversight, and Haniger will probably be dropped on the next run.

Aaron Altherr is probably the Phillies best bet. - wRC+ of 154. I'd replace Braun with him. Dude can't stay healthy anyhow.
I thought about Altherr -- probably a good call. Braun'll likely be gone for the next run, too.

Haven't they changed the rules to prevent this? I mean Cody Allen and Andrew Miller cretainly deserve to make the All Star Team but I'm not sure he can just pick his guys over someone else.
The AL manager gets to pick seven players (5 pitchers, 2 position players), the NL manager gets to pick nine (5 and 4). I should also make an adjustment to add a second DH to the AL as the players select one.

Worst 2 starters for each league: Miggy, Castro, Rizzo, Heyward

I'd replace them with Alonso (would never happen), Altuve or Cano (surprised they aren't getting the popular/name vote), Goldy (Rizzo having a decent year, but the NL is stacked at 1b), and literally anyone else over Heyward
I mean, yeah. All of those guys (maybe not Rizzo) don't deserve to even be on the roster, but we're playing by the rules.
 

Oppo

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Captain, wasn't complaining about you, that was directed towards the fan choice.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Update!


(players underlined are changes)

Notes:
- Altuve and Sano enter the starting lineup on the AL side -- both are better choices than the guys they're replacing (Castro and Machado).
- Cano and Correa are both better choices than Segura and Castro -- and Correa should probably be a starter, but can't do much about that for now.
- The Astros deserve another starting pitcher, so McCullers makes the cut.
- Betances has been amazing.
- I forgot that the AL needs a second DH (by the rules) -- thank fully Dickerson has made most of his starts at DH, so he's our guy.
- Zim moves into starting lineup, letting us get Votto onto the bench (forgot to mark him) and Rizzo drops off the roster.
- Rendon or Arenado -- either one will do. Going with Rendon for now. (Also forgot to mark him).
- The game's in Miami and their biggest star is Stanton -- if he's hitting well enough, he'll likely make the roster (he's not the best choice, but I think he's there so long as his OPS is above .900).
- We still need a Padre, and Clayton Richard has fallen off a bit. Chacin's our new guy, but really, it'll end up being the best pitcher on their roster (unless somehow Wil Myers can get his numbers up).
 
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grimshaw

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I would take out Holland and add Hand as the San Diego guy. He's at least in the conversation as a top 10 reliever this year. I'd then swap out Rendon for Arenado.

Cahill was having a good season, but got hurt or he'd maybe be considered.
 

E5 Yaz

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Is Mookie honestly an All-Star at this stage? I'd look at Avisail Garcia or George Springer at this moment. (Springer could always be swapped out for Gonzalez)
 
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Kliq

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Cozart has been insanely good for Cincinnati this year. I know it isn't sustainable but if the season ended today he could be NL MVP.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Ch-ch-changes.



So, the changes...

AL:
- Alonso and Springer both moved in the starting lineup, knocking out guys who I wouldn't even put on the team (though I bet Miggy still makes it...)
- The 3rd catcher's spot goes to Sanchez, who's been raking recently.
- Alonso moving into the starting lineup lets get the finally-breaking-out-and-no-I'm-not-bitter-since-I-had-him-in-a-keeper-league-years-ago Justin Smoak into the lineup.
- For the pitchers, through no fault of his own, Paxton's out -- he just hasn't thrown enough innings. If he can get closer to the leaders and stay healthy he can probably sneak back in.
- Estrada's been better than his numbers indicate, but an over-4.00 ERA vs Vargas and his win total and low ERA kinda make the decision easy.
- That 5th reliever spot is basically up for grabs, so we're going with Colome, who's been lights out and has a ton of saves over Kahnle, who's just been great as a middle reliever.
- I think Matt Holliday ends up as the backup DH. The Yankees deserve more all-stars, and Dickerson is a name no one knows.

NL:
- Cozart slides into the starting lineup, swapping spots with Seager.
- Rivero's been unreal: 2-1, 2 saves, 33 innings pitched in 33 games, a 0.53 ERA. BABIP of .190 is unsustainable, but for now... he's awesome. Sorry, Shopliftin' Mike Leake!
 

jon abbey

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In Olney's column today, he said All-Star rosters are 32 this year, down from 34.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I think Baltimore is going to need to find their representative elsewhere... Schoop? Mancini? Bundy? Machado is having a terrible season and it doesn't look like he'll win the vote. There's simply no way Francona is going to allow (his own guy) Jose Ramirez to be snubbed when he's having a much better season than a few of the infielders on that proposed roster.

*
 

jon abbey

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Whoa, really? This is new -- they went to 34 a few years ago, so a reduction would be big. Also, I should mention that my rosters include the "Final Vote" guys. I wonder if those 32 include those Final Vote dudes.
Yep, looks like it changed in the new CBA:

"The rosters for each All-Star team will include 32 players — 20 position players and 12 pitchers — which is down from the current 34. But the big change in this area is that the All-Star managers are no longer responsible for filling out the final spots on each roster.

Instead, that will now be handled by the commissioner’s office directly. The league office will select seven players (including four pitchers) for the National League and five players (including four pitchers) for the American League. The full details will be revealed once the full CBA is out, but this suggests the rest will remain the same:

  • Fans vote for 8 starters in the NL, and 9 in the AL (including a designated hitter).
  • Players vote for 8 position players in the NL and 9 in the AL, and stock each team with 5 starting pitchers and 3 relievers.
  • The Final Vote fills the final roster spot in each league."

https://www.truebluela.com/2016/12/3/13829774/all-star-game-rules-mlb-cba
 

CaptainLaddie

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Okay, forgot to post.



AL:
- Hosmer moved into the lead at 1B. Hopefully that changes.
- Alonso deserves to be on the team, and we need an Oriole, so Machado and Cano leave and Schoop joins the team.
- In terms of pitchers, no changes except... since rosters are 32, not 34 (and 12 pitchers in total), I had to cut two guys just because: Logan Morrison and Ervin Santana get the axe. Sorry guys.

NL:
- No changes in starting lineup.
- I had to get to 32 guys, so Cesar Hernandez and Felipe Rivero get the axe, but it means we need a Phillie, so Pat Neshek get onto the roster.
- The San Diego Padre spot is basically whoever has the best pitching numbers at the time -- right now that's Clayton Richard again.
- Carlos Martinez has had a really great run, and I'd rather have him than Trevor Rosenthal.
- Cody Bellinger clearly deserves to be on the team, and he plays both the IF and OF, so he's our utility guy! This meant cutting Thames, which is too bad because it's an awesome story... but 1B in the NL is crazy good right now. Seriously: Goldy, Votto, Rizzo, Thames, Bour, Reynolds are all having all-star caliber seasons (even Freddie Freeman is #23 among all position players in WAR despite playing only 37 games).
 

jon abbey

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Hicks is out for 3-4 weeks as of today, so you can safely bump him now.
 

grimshaw

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Gallo also has a potential hammy issue, but it could be nothing.

I'm not a derby guy necessarily, but a final 4 of Gallo/, Judge, Stanton and Bellinger would be fun. Ozuna also hits mammoth shots.
 

Oppo

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I think Ervin Santana has to be on the team. Bump Severino. Min as a first place surprise deserves more rep and Santana will would be top 5 CY Young conversation, 3 SHO pretty impressive.
 

jon abbey

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Keuchel is still on the DL, aiming to come back just after the ASG, although that likely means they will pick and replace him so maybe irrelevant.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Not final prediction, but based on final vote totals:



A bit of a rotation in the NL at OF -- Ozuna moves in the lineup, which opens up a spot in the OF, which lets Altherr make the team... and Knebel to make the relievers.
 

jon abbey

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Betances is up to 6.4 walks per nine innings, he's got to be close to the brink here.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Betances is up to 6.4 walks per nine innings, he's got to be close to the brink here.
Maybe, but he's still tops in terms of K/9 and has a 1.78 ERA. But you're probably right -- using Kahnle instead of Betances allows us to use Dickerson as a DH/OF and allow another infielder onto the team, probably Jose Ramirez or Xander Bogaerts.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Okay, so final guess:



- This all goes to hell at 3B in the NL if Arenado holds his place over Bryant (current voting has Arenado ahead, I just think Cubs fan will force Bryant into the lineup).
- Gallo is now gone, Darvish is on the pitching staff. This gets Ramirez as the backup 3B, and Xander is the best choice as a backup SS.
- The Padre dilemma is solved with Brad Hand as a reliever.
- Neshek is the lone Phillie, with Justin Turner making the team at 3B. Dude's missed some games but he's been awesome.
- This doesn't include injuries (or Sunday-before-the-all-star-game pitchers), but I suspect Mookie plays for Trout, and we see some shenanigans in the pitching staff as well.
 

Al Zarilla

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On NESN post game show just now, Farrell said it would be good if Xander joined the Sox other 3 all stars, Chris, Craig and Mookie. Does Farrell know something? About Mookie?
 

Al Zarilla

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I think it's pretty clear Mookie will make the team -- entering today he was 5th in WAR in the AL among position players, now he's got 15 homers and 61 RBI to go with that.
I wasn't sure when everything closed down as far as selections go, and how many people really consider WAR, vs. still Avg., HR and RBI.
 

Ale Xander

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If you told me at the beginning of the season that the power position AL starters would be Jose Ramirez, Smoak, and Dickerson, I would have lost a lot of money. Good for them
 

CaptainLaddie

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Castro getting in is fucking stupid. LeMahieu is a bad choice. Lamb over Rendon/Bryant is odd. Not mad about any other picks, though.... only one backup catcher? It's pretty weird.
 

E5 Yaz

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AMERICAN LEAGUE
Starters
C: Salvador Perez, Royals
1B: Justin Smoak, Blue Jays
2B: Jose Altuve, Astros
3B: Jose Ramirez, Indians
SS: Carlos Correa, Astros
OF: Aaron Judge, Yankees
OF: Mike Trout, Angels
OF: George Springer, Astros
DH: Corey Dickerson, Rays

Reserves
C: Gary Sanchez, Yankees ^
1B: Yonder Alonso, Athletics ^
2B: Starlin Castro, Yankees ^
2B: Jonathan Schoop, Orioles *
SS: Francisco Lindor, Indians ^
3B: Miguel Sano, Twins ^
OF: Mookie Betts, Red Sox ^
OF: Michael Brantley, Indians ^
OF: Avisail Garcia, White Sox ^
DH: Nelson Cruz, Mariners ^

Pitchers
RHP: Dellin Betances, Yankees ^
RHP: Yu Darvish, Rangers *
RHP: Michael Fulmer, Tigers *
LHP: Dallas Keuchel, Astros ^
LHP: Craig Kimbrel, Red Sox ^
RHP: Corey Kluber, Indians *
RHP: Lance McCullers Jr., Astros *
LHP: Andrew Miller, Indians ^
LHP: Chris Sale, Red Sox ^
RHP: Ervin Santana, Twins ^
RHP: Luis Severino, Yankees ^
LHP: Jason Vargas, Royals ^

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Starters
C: Buster Posey, Giants
1B: Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
2B: Daniel Murphy, Nationals
3B: Nolan Arenado, Rockies
SS: Zack Cozart, Reds
OF: Charlie Blackmon, Rockies
OF: Bryce Harper, Nationals
OF: Marcell Ozuna, Marlins

Reserves
C: Yadier Molina, Cardinals ^
1B: Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs ^
1B: Joey Votto, Reds *
2B: Josh Harrison, Pirates *
2B: DJ LeMahieu, Rockies ^
3B: Jake Lamb, D-backs ^
3B: Corey Seager, Dodgers ^
OF: Cody Bellinger, Dodgers ^
OF: Michael Conforto, Mets ^
OF: Ender Inciarte, Braves *
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins ^

Pitchers
RHP: Wade Davis, Cubs ^
RHP: Zack Greinke, D-backs ^
LHP: Brad Hand, Padres *
RHP: Greg Holland, Rockies ^
RHP: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers ^
LHP: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers ^
RHP: Corey Knebel, Brewers *
RHP: Carlos Martinez, Cardinals ^
RHP: Pat Neshek, Phillies *
LHP: Robbie Ray, D-backs ^
RHP: Max Scherzer, Nationals ^
RHP: Stephen Strasburg, Nationals *

^ Player Ballot-elected
* Choice of MLB
 

E5 Yaz

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Castro getting in is fucking stupid. LeMahieu is a bad choice. Lamb over Rendon/Bryant is odd. Not mad about any other picks, though.... only one backup catcher? It's pretty weird.
Good calls on Knebel/Neshek